speaker
Conference Operator
Operator

Good day, everyone, and welcome to today's AMG Q1 2023 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, you will have an opportunity to ask questions during the question-and-answer period. You may register to ask a question at any time by pressing star 1 on your touchtone phone. Please note this call is being recorded, and I will be standing by should you need any assistance. It is now my pleasure to turn today's call over to Michelle Fisher. Please go ahead.

speaker
Michelle Fisher
Head of Investor Relations

Welcome to AMG's first quarter 2023 earnings call. Joining me on this call are Dr. Hein Schimmelbusch, the Chairman of the Management Board and Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Jackson Dunkel, the Chief Financial Officer, and Mr. Eric Jackson, the Chief Operating Officer. AMG's first quarter 2023 earnings press release issued yesterday is on AMG's website. Today's call will begin with a review of the first quarter 2023 business highlights by Dr. Schimmelbusch, Mr. Dunkel will comment on AMG's financial results, and Mr. Jackson will discuss operations. At the completion of Mr. Jackson's remarks, Dr. Schimelbusch will comment on strategy and outlook. We will then open the call to take your questions. Before I pass the call to Dr. Schimelbusch, I would like to expressly refer you to our statement on forward-looking statements and the meaning thereof, as which have used all previous occasions and will and we use at this earnings call, and which explanatory statement has been published as part of our financial presentation and at our website, all in connection with this earnings call. I will now pass the floor to Dr. Schimmelbusch, AMG's Chairman of the Management Board and Chief Executive Officer.

speaker
Dr. Hein Schimmelbusch
Chairman of the Management Board & Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Michelle. As announced and subject to approval of our shareholders at our Annual General Meeting later today, AMG will change its name from AMG Advanced Metallurgical Group, NV, to AMG Critical Materials, NV. We achieved record earnings and record operating cash flow in the first quarter of 2023. Revenue increased by 12% to $451 million versus the first quarter of 2022. EBTA increased 116% to 118 million compared to 55 million in the first quarter of 22. This is the third straight quarter in which AMG has exceeded 100 million of EBTA. The 63 million EBTA increase over the first quarter of 22 was driven largely by the clean energy material segment, specifically AMG Lithium, and its Brazil operation with an EBTA contribution of 92 million. Our expansion projects remain on track. The Lithium Concentrate expansion project in AMG Brazil is processing as planned. and our hydroxide refinery in Bitterfeld, Germany is under construction with commissioning for the first 20,000 ton module expected in the fourth quarter of 2023. With regards to resource development, AMG purchased a 25% shareholding in Sindwald Lithium PLC and is supporting the Sinwald Board to accelerate the development of this project. As a partner with Sinwald, together we will pursue a definitive feasibility study for the project in East Germany. Establishing a raw material base in Germany close to our Bitterfeld operations has obvious logistical and strategic benefits to AMG. Regarding solid-state battery activities, AMG Lithium GmbH has engaged in a joint production project with Fraunhofer, Münster University, Wacker, and Schunk to develop next-generation solid-state batteries based on lithium-sulfur technology. AMG Lithium will provide lithium sulfide and solid electrolytes for this project. The new spent catalyst recycling facility in Saintsville, Ohio, continues to progress with the roaster operating at full design capacity and the melt shop targeting full production capacity later in the second quarter this year. That might be earlier. AMG has completed the expansion of its vanadium oxide, referred to as V205, production in Nuremberg which is capable of using gasification ash and spent catalysts as feedstock. V205 is increasingly destined for the lever battery market. Shell AMG Recycling PV continues to advance its projects in the Middle East, including the first phase of the so-called Supercenter project based on long-term supply agreements with Aramco. Front-end engineering design for the first phase of the project, the conversion of gasification ash into V205, began in late 22 and will be completed in the fourth quarter of 23. I will now pass the floor to Jackson Dunkel, AMG's Chief Financial Officer. Jackson.

speaker
Jackson Dunkel
Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Heinz. I'll be referring to the first quarter 2023 investor presentation posted yesterday on our website. Starting on page three, it shows an overview of the financial highlights of the quarter. Revenue for the quarter increased versus the prior year by 12% to $451 million. This increase is mainly driven by the improved price environment in our AMG clean energy materials segment. Q1 2023 EBITDA was $118 million, 116% increase versus the prior year. As you can see in the lower left corner, AMG continues to sequentially increase EBITDA each quarter. Net income to shareholders increased to $56 million for Q123, yielding $1.72 of diluted earnings per share compared to 89 cents in Q122. Now I'm going to review our three segments. Starting with AMG Clean Energy Materials, which is shown on page four of our presentation. On the top left, you can see that Q123 revenues increased 53% versus Q122 to $219 million. This increase was driven mainly by higher prices in tantalum and lithium concentrates, as well as increased sales volumes of vanadium and tantalum concentrate. Increased volumes in vanadium were due to the ramp up of our Zanesville facility. Q123 EBITDA increased to $106 million from $37 million in the first quarter of 22, largely driven by our lithium business. I would like to highlight the cost per ton delivered to China, which was $338 per ton for the period ending March 31, 23. This is a world-class result, and it is partially due to having a very strong tantalum business. As we previously discussed, the tantalum revenues are used as a cost offset to the cost per ton of lithium concentrate. This effect was particularly noteworthy in Q1, where, similar to our fourth quarter, the cost per ton figure was positively impacted by high shipments of tantalum. And finally, the quarterly capex shown on the bottom left of $43 million mainly reflects our investment into a battery-grade lithium hydroxide plant in Bitterfeld, Germany, and the expansion of our lithium concentrate capacity in Brazil, as well as ongoing residual investment into the Zanesville Venating Facility. Turning now to page five of our presentation, which shows AMG Critical Minerals. AMG Critical Minerals revenue for the quarter decreased 41 percent to $63 million compared to Q122 due to lower volumes across the segment, which was primarily driven by the silicon metal care and maintenance plan for the first two months of this year prior to restarting and operating one furnace in March. The segment also suffered from a slowdown in the European industrial economy, which impacted volumes in both graphite and antimony. Q123 EBITDA decreased 68 percent compared to Q122 to $3 million due to lower volumes. As of March 1, 2023, AMG's silicon metal plant restarted operating – restarted operating one furnace, which will continue through the second quarter with plans to operate one furnace in the third quarter as well. We will continue to review the operational parameters of the silicon business on an ongoing basis and will adjust as appropriate in line with the favorable and predictable market conditions. Due to these interruptions in the silicon business, the financial results will be excluded from EBDA during this period of abnormal operations. AMG Silicon generated $11 million in cash flow from operating activities during the quarter, driven by the receipt of energy sales made in the fourth quarter of 2022. As noted previously, the financial impact of the care and maintenance program does not significantly impact AMG's overall projected 2023 financial results. Moving on to AMG Critical Materials Technologies on page six, starting on the top left, you can see the Q123 revenue increased by $15 million, or 10% versus Q122. This improvement was due to higher sales volumes of titanium alloys and chrome metal. EBTA was $9 million during the quarter compared to $10 million in Q122. The slight decrease is due to lower sequential chrome prices, partially offset by stronger profitability from our engineering business. AMG Engineering signed $76 million of new orders during Q123, driven by strong orders of remelting, turbine blade, and heat treatment furnaces, representing a 1.21 book-to-bill ratio. Order backlog at the end of the quarter was $237 million, the highest since March 31, 2020. Turning now to page 7 of the presentation, on the top left, you can see that AMG's Q123 SG&A expenses were $40 million, versus $37 million in Q122. This increase was largely driven by the higher personnel costs and variable compensation expense due to the increase in headcount related to the lithium and vanadium expansion projects in our clean energy materials segment. AMG's net finance cost in Q123 was $7 million compared to $9 million in Q122. This variance was mainly driven by foreign exchange gains of $2 million during the quarter which are due to non-cash intergroup balances. AMG capitalized $2 million of interest costs in the first quarter of 23 versus a capitalization of $4 million in the same period in 22. This decrease is mainly driven by the interest associated with the expansion projects in AMG Lithium and Brazil operations compared to a higher capitalized interest associated with the company's tax-exempt municipal bond supporting the Vanadium expansion in Ohio in the prior year. AMG recorded an income tax expense of $36 million in the first quarter of 23 compared to a tax benefit of $1 million in Q1-22. This variance was mainly driven by higher profitability of AMG Lithium at its Brazil operation coupled with movements in the Brazilian Real. The effects of the Brazilian Real caused a $2 million tax expense in Q1-23 compared to a $15 million tax benefit in the same period in 22. AMG paid taxes of $21 million in the first quarter of 23 compared to tax payments of $4 million in Q1-22. The higher cash payments in the current period were largely a result of higher profitability in Brazil. Turning to page eight of the presentation, you can see in the top left that cash from operating activities was $93 million in Q1-23 compared to cash used in operating activities of $4 million in the same period for 2022. This increase in operating cash flow was due to the higher profitability in the current period. AMG's return on capital employed for the first three months of the year was 37.9%, compared to 19.8% achieved in the first three months of last year due to significantly higher profitability. AMG ended the quarter with $311 million of net debt, with the decrease versus year-end 22 mainly due to $10 million of debt repayment. and higher unrestricted cash of $14 million offset by the utilization of restricted cash associated with the municipal bond. As of March 31, 2023, AMG had $360 million of unrestricted cash and total liquidity of $555 million. That concludes my remarks. Eric?

speaker
Eric Jackson
Chief Operating Officer

Thank you, Jackson. AMG's operations continued to perform exceptionally well during the first quarter. especially in the context of today's volatile markets. Consistent with our previous statements, we expect our spent catalyst processing facility in Zanesville, Ohio, to achieve full production capacity later in the second quarter of 2023. This means that our 2023 production volumes will be somewhat back-end weighted for the year. The lithium concentration Concentrate expansion project in Brazil is now slated to temporarily shut production in Q3 to integrate our expansion. This will take place over a four-week period and will result in reduced production in the third quarter. However, our expectations are that the subsequent ramp-up will be shorter than originally planned. We believe net of co-product credits, we are at or near the low end of the global lithium concentrate cost curve. This is borne out by the $408 per tonne stiff China cost we have averaged over the 12-month period ending March 31, 23, 11% better than our full year 2022 cost of $461 per tonne. That trend continues to improve as we average $338 per ton for the first three months of this year. Major drivers of the lower cost in the quarter were lower mining costs and higher tantalum sales. It's worth restating that 100% of our tantalum concentrate production is sold under the terms of our joint venture with JX Nikon Mining and Metals Corporation. AMG Lithium's battery-grade lithium hydroxide refinery in Germany is under construction. Commissioning for the first 20,000-pound module will start in the fourth quarter of this year. In January 23, we announced approval for a vanadium electrolyte plant expansion in AMG Titanium in Nuremberg, Germany. The target capacity is 6,000 cubic meters of vanadium electrolyte produced from secondary feedstocks. Construction has started, and commissioning and production are expected to begin at the end of 2023. As of March 1st, 23, AMG Silicon Metal Plant in Pocking, Germany, restarted operations, running one of our four furnaces. AMG Silicon will operate in this manner at least through the third quarter, And as Jackson mentioned, we will continue to review the operational parameters of the silicon business and adjust as appropriate in line with favorable and predictable market and cost conditions. In terms of our critical materials technology segment, AMG Engineering had a book-to-bill ratio of 1.21 at the end of Q1 23 and has had an exceptionally strong order intake to date in the second quarter. We continue to focus on safety, operational improvement, risk management, and successfully delivering our strategic projects on time and on budget. Our overriding objective is to be the low cost, highest quality, and most environmentally responsible producer in all of our businesses. I would now like to pass the floor to Dr. Shima Bush, AMG's Chief Executive Officer.

speaker
Dr. Hein Schimmelbusch
Chairman of the Management Board & Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Eric. The increased profitability going forward is very much driven by the strategic project coming on stream in 23 and 24. In particular, Sainsville, the vanadium recycling operation, our lithium concentrate expansion, and our first lithium hydroxide refinery module in Bitterfeld, Germany. In terms of this year, AMG reaffirms its guidance to exceed 400 million EBTA. Regarding AMG's five-year guidance, the outstanding progress we have made with our strategic growth projects and given the compelling long-term supply and demand dynamics in the lithium market, we are issuing new guidance to achieve 650 million EBTA or more in five years or earlier. Operator, we would now like to open the line for questions.

speaker
Conference Operator
Operator

Certainly. At this time, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your touch-tone phone. You may withdraw your question at any time by pressing star two. Once again, that is star and one. And we will take our first question from Stan Venister with ING. Please go ahead.

speaker
Stan Venister
Analyst, ING

Yes, yes, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I have three to start with, if I may. The first one is on AMG Brazil. If I compare your Q1 average selling price for spotting to the Q4 reported price, and I take into account the three to four-month lag, AMG seems to be able to better capture or capture a better share of the spot price. So anything particular that drives this change with regards to sort of a better market pricing?

speaker
Dr. Hein Schimmelbusch
Chairman of the Management Board & Chief Executive Officer

Well, don't read too much into this analysis because there are shipments at quarter end, variations of shipments, variations of sales in the quarter end. So yearly or average, it's a better number. So I don't think that there is any particular answer I can give.

speaker
Stan Venister
Analyst, ING

Okay, okay. Maybe related, amidst the recent price decline seen in Chinese pot markets, especially for lithium carbonate, can you help us understand what gives you the confidence to reiterate the full year 23 guidance, also noting that there will be downtime in Q3? So any sort of comfort you can give to the market, because I think that's sort of one of the concerns that is currently in the marketplace.

speaker
Dr. Hein Schimmelbusch
Chairman of the Management Board & Chief Executive Officer

Let me first of all say that we do this guidance very thoroughly. We run a host of scenarios, as explained many times, and then we have very thorough analysis of each of those scenarios, and then we select what we believe are the most realistic scenarios, and we look at it, and then we come to the conclusion of the guidance. Now, in 23, there will be an interruption of production of whatever two, three weeks. In Q3, when we switch from the traditional flow sheet to the new flow sheet in the operation of spodumene production in Brazil. But that will be overcompensated by rapid increase of production is here a substantial increase please note that that substantial increase is also accompanied by a substantial increase of the tantalum production so both lithium and tantalum will be higher in Q4 as ever before please also note that tantalum is 100% sold and lithium is 100% sold under long-term contracts. This, by the way, is also true for ferrovenadium. We will very shortly now reach, as we speak, actually, we are running at 100% capacity in Saintsville. So the ferrovenadium production, which is also sold under long-term contracts, will contribute to the overall picture vis-a-vis in 23. So we have a strong quantity effect here. The price assumptions are extremely conservative. We are, of course, benefiting from very high prices the first quarter and reaching into the second quarter. But always remember, vitamin prices and hydroxide prices and carbonate prices have very different volatilities. The hydroxide prices went down slightly. The carbonate prices went down heavily. The spodumine prices in between, but much less than the carbonate prices. So we are in a good sector of the lithium market. By the way, that extends into the future because in hydroxide, we will produce hydroxide in our refinery. So that's what makes us comfortable to reaffirm our guidance.

speaker
Stan Venister
Analyst, ING

Yeah, if I may comment on this, because this comes back to my first question. Has there been a change in the contract structure recently that makes you less dependent to the lithium carbon price in China?

speaker
Dr. Hein Schimmelbusch
Chairman of the Management Board & Chief Executive Officer

No, we have, you know, in the price picture, there are review dates. at which the parties adjust the prices peacefully. And that is ongoing and has not a specific effect. It's just a solid performance. So I can repeat what I just said. Look at the quantity of expansion. multiplied by prices which look at 100%. No quantity risk. You're talking to a company which has sold its production 100% under long-term contracts at market prices. So this is relatively rare. Yeah, understood. Visibility is very strong. That's what I'm saying here. I mean, if I was an analyst, I also would be skeptical. You know, I'm always skeptical. But I'm not an analyst. I'm producing.

speaker
Stan Venister
Analyst, ING

Understood. The final question is on the portfolio organization, because even with these outstanding results, valuation looks increasingly sort of low. Is there an update to give here on how you organize the business, portfolio divestments of businesses, which are increasingly seen as non-core and a diversion to management attention. Any comments here?

speaker
Dr. Hein Schimmelbusch
Chairman of the Management Board & Chief Executive Officer

I very much like your reference to management attention because I can really answer what my management attention is. My management attention is on execution of strategic projects because the profitability of management time spent on strategic projects exceeds the profitability of management time in selling assets. Now let me talk about selling assets. Of course, we have a few assets which could be addressed as non-core. If you have to address categories, you can address them as non-core. These assets, by the way, are cash positive. So that reduces the haste by which one would pay attention as management in comparison to strategic projects to that issue. And then there's another element. When you look at the potential disposition of assets, you obviously compare the present value of the existing cash flow from that operation to the present value of the cash you would have, assuming that you have sold at a particular price. Now, in most cases, when we look at this, the sales prices are low. The potential sales prices are low. So the present value of the cash flow from those operations exceeds what we would have as a free cash flow after the sales or that annualized basis. So, as I said, we are looking at this very carefully, constantly. We are focused on execution of our strategic projects because that's a full-time job. And if there is an opportunity arising that this equation, which I just characterized, as a net present value comparison, if that equation goes into a positive territory, we of course will react.

speaker
Stan Venister
Analyst, ING

Okay. There's a third element in the equation being the price that the market is willing to pay for a conglomerate.

speaker
Dr. Hein Schimmelbusch
Chairman of the Management Board & Chief Executive Officer

Of course, what you are talking about is that if we sell something, then the market would reward this by a higher stock price, even if we are selling it at a bad price. That's what you're saying. Potentially. That's a difficult statement.

speaker
Stan Venister
Analyst, ING

Okay, understood. Okay, thanks for addressing my question.

speaker
Conference Operator
Operator

And once again, to ask a question, that's star one. And we will take our next question from Martin Den Driver with MRO. Please go ahead.

speaker
Martin Den Driver
Analyst, ABN AMRO

Yes, good morning. It's actually ABN MRO. My first question is on the longer-term ambition level or target level for EBITDA and the 500 that has now moved to 650. Is there any scope change in that updated guidance? Because it's five years, so we're talking 2028. Have you now included possibly some effects of a Brazilian conversion plan or train two and three? And if there's no change in the scope that you've used for that upgraded long-term guidance, what is the key component for the raise from 500 to 650? That would be question one, please.

speaker
Dr. Hein Schimmelbusch
Chairman of the Management Board & Chief Executive Officer

First of all, looking at that timeline, you look at two modules. of the refineries. So we believe that the execution of the expansion of Bitterfeld will be rapid. So there is a second refinery. The refinery profitability is extensive. You can measure that by the difference between carbonate prices and hydroxide prices in a certain way, although one has to be very specific here and know the qualities in detail, but there is a substantial profitability associated with those refineries. Then you have the expansion of Brazil operations into carbonate. That is a substantial move. We are in a very mature stage of feasibility there, and we have financing alternatives which are very attractive. So, and as you know, the detour of converting spodumene into hydroxide technical grade or carbonate technical grade in China, and then refining in Germany. That is a long journey, which involves working capital and costs. And the direct delivery from Brazil to Germany is extensively profitable compared to the detour. You have, of course, then the full production of two recycling facilities in Ohio, the world's largest such operation, which is in all likelihood of operating at a very high capacity utilization and 100% of its products are sold. So, under long-term context, when you take this together with the expansion in Brazil of the spodumene production, the tantalum production, the carbonate production in Brazil, and when you take this with the second refinery in production, you easily arrive at a pretty high number. which makes us very comfortable to say 650. We could have also said a higher number if we were in a sort of aggressive mode, but we are not. We are conservative.

speaker
Martin Den Driver
Analyst, ABN AMRO

Got it. Thank you very much. Then on my second question, I was hoping to pick your brain a little bit. The lithium prices seem to be bottoming out, and I was wondering if you could provide how you view this. Is that due to more demand and restocking in China, or is it perhaps linked to the developments in China? If you could share your thoughts on the recent price developments in Lithuania.

speaker
Dr. Hein Schimmelbusch
Chairman of the Management Board & Chief Executive Officer

I read your question in such a way that you believe that the origin of the major movements are in China, and that is correct. And we analyze this on a weekly basis, on a daily basis sometimes. The The turnaround is visible and is confirmed by the figures which we receive on this. So it's now driven by impressive figures of EV demand and sales of cars. And there has to be a restocking. happening and those movements can be relatively rapid because it's a chain reaction and has to be observed in all these kinds of volatile commodity markets. So we are We are moderately positive that this will turn around and return to somewhat higher levels. Our internal optimists say it will rebound to the previous height, but I'm more moderate here. Given my age, I'm sort of cautious.

speaker
Martin Den Driver
Analyst, ABN AMRO

Understood. Mr. Jackson referred to Cambridge 2, that it will be fully contributing somewhere in the second quarter. If we take the potential EBITDA contribution of Zanesville or Cambridge 2, and you look at the EBITDA contribution in the first quarter, what was the percentage? Was it running at 25% of aimed for EBITDA contribution? Was it at 50%? Just to give us a sense of what type of uptake we can expect in the second quarter and third quarter.

speaker
Dr. Hein Schimmelbusch
Chairman of the Management Board & Chief Executive Officer

In the first quarter, almost nothing. I mean, there was no contribution of Saintsville in the first quarter to speak of. So, in percentages, I would say below 10%. The So the ramp up will be significant.

speaker
Martin Den Driver
Analyst, ABN AMRO

So ramp up in the second quarter, really 100% contributions in the third quarter.

speaker
Dr. Hein Schimmelbusch
Chairman of the Management Board & Chief Executive Officer

We are right now in the second quarter. The last week we were running at full capacity. So if this is stabilizing... then, of course, a substantial portion of the second quarter will be then benefiting from that production. But, you know, this is a complex facility. We are extremely proud to have reached full capacity ahead of schedule. Although we believe to have reached full capacity, as I said, the roaster is stabilized running on 100% producing roasted material, but that, of course, has to be turned into ferrovenadium in order to be financially rewarding. And the melt shock is now running at 100% for the first time in a stable way. So if that is continuing, it will be now a very strong contributor for the rest of the year.

speaker
Martin Den Driver
Analyst, ABN AMRO

Got it. My final question is with regards to CMT and chrome, chromium pricing. You've obviously had some headwind due to the more recent price developments in chrome down sequentially the last two quarters. Should we assume now that you in Q2 will have the ability to pass on those effects that EBITDA will improve in line with the recovery that you've guided for Q2? for CMT, for technologies?

speaker
Dr. Hein Schimmelbusch
Chairman of the Management Board & Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, we believe, first of all, the background in aerospace is positive. Chrome, in its high end, and therefore in its most profitable product qualities, is going to aerospace, especially to the aerospace engine, and to high-performance steel, highly alloyed steel, which essentially is 20% chrome metal. and therefore we are a function of the recovering aerospace market which is very strong going forward. Secondly, we were low performing and are still low performing in Chrome because of the turbulences which were caused by the happenings in the in the regions where chrome oxide is being produced. And that is in Russia, Kazakhstan, and China. And these turbulences have muddled the water in chrome. So as that stabilizes, which I think is underway, more visibility will return, and substantial incremental EBITDA is likely to return to that. I mean, from practically zero to maybe the intrinsic EBITDA of the home business in my definition, is 20 to 30 million a year EBITDA intrinsic. And we missed that 20 to 30 million in the last quarter because of that volatility in the oxide markets. You know, when certain producers in China and other places in the East simply flooded the market and that was confusing.

speaker
Martin Den Driver
Analyst, ABN AMRO

Got it. And so your expectation of stabilization of that market, is that really visible in objective measures or is it just an expectation at this moment?

speaker
Dr. Hein Schimmelbusch
Chairman of the Management Board & Chief Executive Officer

The future is never measurable. It's just, you know, you have to take my judgment here as as the measure. We know those markets.

speaker
Martin Den Driver
Analyst, ABN AMRO

Thank you. Thank you very much, gentlemen. Those were my questions.

speaker
Conference Operator
Operator

And as a reminder, that is star one for your questions. We will go next to Martin Verbeek with the idea. Please go ahead.

speaker
Martin Verbeek
Analyst, The Idea

Good morning. It's Martin Verbeek of the idea. A few questions from my side. When you mentioned the building blocks to get to 650 EBITDA in five years' time, I did miss the contribution of Shell AMG, or is this purely from an accounting point of view that it won't be included in EBITDA?

speaker
Dr. Hein Schimmelbusch
Chairman of the Management Board & Chief Executive Officer

That's correct.

speaker
Martin Verbeek
Analyst, The Idea

Okay.

speaker
Dr. Hein Schimmelbusch
Chairman of the Management Board & Chief Executive Officer

And do you have... Let me comment. We are in FEL3 feasibility study of the hydrometallurgical conversion plant, the gasification ash into V2O5 there. And that is a very large investment. It will be then under construction and when it is, it will of course come on in the five-year period. So this will be equity accounting and it will happen in the net income, so not in the EBITDA.

speaker
Martin Verbeek
Analyst, The Idea

And are you willing to provide some kind of range, what kind of contribution that might bring to net income? No. Okay. Then secondly, to get to this 650, you have to make a substantial investment. At the CMD, you mentioned that you will make some 1 billion of investments in lithium. When I add your current investments and what you have made, then more or less I arrive at 250 to 300. So it's corrected. You still have to make some 750 million to be able to achieve this 650 ABDA level?

speaker
Dr. Hein Schimmelbusch
Chairman of the Management Board & Chief Executive Officer

I don't look at, I don't get this arithmetically, this mathematical, what you said.

speaker
Jackson Dunkel
Chief Financial Officer

Let's go over the 250. Martin, what do you have?

speaker
Martin Verbeek
Analyst, The Idea

I have the initial investment in MIMBRA. I also take a large part of the expansion plan. Most of the first module one and the investment in Zinwalt. And then you already have announced more or less the magnitude what will be for modules 2 to 5, the technical grade lithium carbonate one and the battery grade lithium carbonate one. And then there's still a portion which you have not disclosed yet where you will invest at. More or less when I add those numbers then, I do arrive at some 250 to 350 of investments you already have made.

speaker
Dr. Hein Schimmelbusch
Chairman of the Management Board & Chief Executive Officer

Okay, so let's go through it again. What has been addressed too far, including the expansion in Brazil, let's name it at 150. Let's add the carbonate with 250 in Brazil so that we add 400. Now, let's add 150 for the infrastructure plus the first module altogether. We're at 400 plus 150, that's 550. Let's add another module, including certain bells and whistles for being able to receive all qualities of technical grade things. 100, where were we?

speaker
Jackson Dunkel
Chief Financial Officer

650 now.

speaker
Dr. Hein Schimmelbusch
Chairman of the Management Board & Chief Executive Officer

650 now. Let's take an investment in a resource such as SynWord. which will need, of course, like the Sinwald owner, the Sinwald company, of course, is not having a cash flow, so this will be project financed, and we will be, of course, participating in this in order to provide the equity for the project financing. So if you take this $200 million, just as an example, there are other resource projects, one of which will be probably announced later this year. So, you know, we will be, I think, running through that billion relatively quickly.

speaker
Martin Verbeek
Analyst, The Idea

But then again, getting back to the core of the question is, how much do you still need to invest in the upcoming years to achieve this $650 million of EBITDA?

speaker
Jackson Dunkel
Chief Financial Officer

What is in the, let's see, 200, 500 million.

speaker
Martin Verbeek
Analyst, The Idea

Okay, okay. And then lastly, you have clearly up to mid-term ABDA guidance. In your annual report, you also introduced a kind of guidance that you stated that over the period till 2026, you expect an average ABDA of more than 400. Should we then conclude that the upward towards the 650 will be more or less back-end loaded? But that's a bit contradictory to what you just stated, that a lot of new products will get on stream in 2023 and 2024, so then already we should see a hike in profitability.

speaker
Dr. Hein Schimmelbusch
Chairman of the Management Board & Chief Executive Officer

No, it's not back-end loaded. A very big move will come in 2024. So it's harmonical. It's not heavily back-end loaded. Of course, the second module comes in the later part of this five-year period. That is a significant incremental EVDA. Okay, thank you very much.

speaker
Conference Operator
Operator

And once again, as a reminder, that is star and one. We will pause to allow any further questions to queue. And it does appear that we have no further questions at this time. I will turn the call back over to Michelle Fisher for closing remarks.

speaker
Michelle Fisher
Head of Investor Relations

This concludes our Q1 2023 earnings call. We will host our annual general meeting at 1 p.m. today in person, and we will also stream the event. Thank you for your kind attention.

speaker
Conference Operator
Operator

Thank you, and this does conclude today's program. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time.

Disclaimer

This conference call transcript was computer generated and almost certianly contains errors. This transcript is provided for information purposes only.EarningsCall, LLC makes no representation about the accuracy of the aforementioned transcript, and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the information provided by the transcript.

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