Aperam Sa Ord

Welcome to Aperam's Q3 podcast. I am Tim Di Maolo, Aperam's CEO, and I hope you are having a good start of the day. Today, together with Sud Sivaji, Aperam's Deputy CEO, and Nicolas Changeur, our new Chief Financial Officer, we will discuss our third quarter performance, current trading, and the outlook for the fourth quarter. In addition, I will start with my comments on the development the European Commission has announced to protect the European steel industry. As always, we will host a conference call later. The start time is 2 p.m. Central European Time, and we are welcoming your questions then. The link to register for the conference call is available on our website and at the end on the last slide of this podcast presentation. Aperam is providing the following information as part of its early release documentation. This material supports our quarterly financial reporting and, where applicable, our disclosure of regulated information. Please take note of the disclaimer on page two. Usually we start with the quarterly highlights, but this time let's begin with the topic which has been on everyone's mind. The news from Bruxelles sounds very good. European Commission is working on the European Steel Action Plan and we increasingly see signs that the European Commission will protect the steel market in Europe to create a fair playing field. The new regulatory environment will have positive implications for us. On October 7th, the European Commission announced the plans to set import quotas at the level reflecting the historical share of imports in the European market and to set the 50% tariffs on imports exceeding this quota. We welcome this proposal strongly. In terms of timing, there is another process step to go. The 27 member states of the European Union have to approve it. The old safeguard rule expires in mid-2026. We hope and support that the new rule will be introduced much earlier, and the Eurofair asked for it by the end of 2025 already. Working alongside the European Commission, we are striving for the quickest possible implementation date. There will be an improvement for us already in 2026. The crucial melt and pour rule is also included in the proposal. The basic idea is that the origin of the melted steel will follow the finished product. This rule will enhance traceability, ensuring transparency on the true origin of imported steel, and helping to prevent circumvention of the new measures. This is very important because we estimate that the majority of the stainless steel imported in Europe is coming from a non-melt origin. Behind these imports is usually a production facility in Indonesia or in China, which have clear safeguard, anti-dumping, anti-subsidy duties. The belt and pull rules is a key milestone for the steelmakers in Europe. The next topic is CBAMA, the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. The goal is to put a price on the carbon emitted during the production of carbon intensive goods imported into Europe. Necessary registration of the imports have started already in autumn 2024 and now we expect the mechanism and the implementation at the beginning of next year. There will be a ramp up during the next few years. Also, scrap is identified as critical raw material. This is why the European Commission is implementing new regulations and surveillance to manage it differently. More scrap should be kept within the European Union and support the use of scrap in the European circular economy. New measures include a custom surveillance system for scrap import and exports. we believe that in today's world where we have a restriction on export of nickel and rare health from indonesia and china it is vital to keep our resources as a critical raw material locally available especially in the largest generator scrap in you in the world which is europe and in united states where we are recycling leaders in total This combination of measures will have a positive impact for the Stainless Europe recycling and service and solution business of Aperama. But now coming to the real reason of the podcast today, the development of the third quarter 2025. Again, this quarter was very challenging, but our guidance was achieved thanks to strong focus on self-help. To start with Europe, we had expected the typical seasonal slowdown in shipments due to reduced demand during the European summer. Lower volumes and additional headwind due to lower price lead us to Q3 adjusted Vida below the results we achieved in Q1. But the important fact is that based on our cost leadership position in Europe, we realized a positive result also in this very difficult quarter. Our performance in Brazil was supported by solid demand and a positive seasonal impact. The alloy segment was, as we have announced, impacted by some maintenance and planning shutdown in summer. However, the integration of Universal is on track and the potential of synergy is unchanged and should be achieved. An important issue is the imports into the European market and this is still a burden. Even in this difficult situation imports are increasing and exceed even the 25%. They show again that the trade defense is really necessary and we are looking forward to it. The leadership journey made again very good progress in the second year of phase five. We realized 29 million in Q3 after delivering 20 million in Q2 and 21 million in Q1. This means the program is full on track. We have realized almost 83% of our targets already, despite the fact that we have time until the end of 2026. last but not least i would like to point out our strong cash generation which results in the the leveraging we have promised let's talk about the market now moving to the next slide on sector developments the construction sector is one of the most important segments for us the overall outlook here remains weak so far except for some positive signs in the heating market this is a segment that could clearly benefit from the german spending program once it materialized brazil construction sector softened a bit as we move towards summer in the southern hemisphere Consumer goods demand is stable without improvement. Demand in food, health and catering was solid, while food and beverage showed some improvement, but far away from a trend reversal. Industrial demand is solid in the energy sector, with some tentative signs pointing to a potential recovery. The strong consumption in Brazil continues. In energy, LNG shows stable high demand, but oil and gas is in wait and see mode. The automotive sector is weak with decline in demand and the situation in Brazil is showing lower domestic sales but increased exports. Aerospace is growing and manufacturers have full order books supported by new orders after the recent airshow. However, the full production chain remains well stocked. The stocking continues for the time being with the prospect of a 2026 recovery as build rates of passenger planes increase only slowly. As mentioned before, imports into Europe rose to a notably high level of above 25%. This is a significant figure given the current market weakness and low prices. As a consequence, the distribution chain also is well stocked. Inventory levels have increased persistently and inventory days are elevated. I will hand over to our new CFO, Nicolas Changeur. Welcome, Nicolas. The floor is yours.

Thank you very much, Tim, and bonjour to everyone. My name is Nicolas Changeur, and it's a big pleasure to step into the role of Chief Financial Officer for Aperam and to be part of this podcast for the very first time. I joined in 2003, which was at the time the stainless segment of Arcelor. Since 2014, I have been part of the Aperam leadership team as a global CMO for Stainless and also the CEO for the service and solution segment lately. It is an honor for me to serve now as CFO. I am incredibly enthusiastic about the transformation journey ahead and committed to driving financial strengths and sustainable growth for our investors. I look forward to working closely with you to set up a strong relationship with the capital markets. I had the chance to meet some of you already and I am looking forward to future meetings to discuss what we are doing at Aperam. First, let's start with adjusted EBITDA, which equals EBITDA as we had no exceptionals this quarter. We guided for lower adjusted EBITDA compared to Q1 2025. This was based on the typical Q3 development, especially driven by the seasonality in the summer quarter. The price pressure continued in Europe and valuation was not a remarkable topic in Q3. But Leadership Journée supported us. Our focus on self-help means that we are profitable in stainless steel in Europe, even in such a challenging quarter. Important is the free cash flow, 138 million euros were generated and that's the highest figure in a third quarter apart from 2022 when we were at the top of the cycle as promised our focus is deleveraging and thanks to lower net working capital by 114 million euros, we were able to do the next significant step and reduce net debt further by 98 million euros, even after dividends. Our focus to reduce net working capital since the beginning of the year had the additional benefits of containing valuation losses on inventory. Moving to the next slide, our four segments performed in line with the guidance we gave. Seasonality in the summer quarter had a negative impact on our business in Europe. And also, alloys had a maintenance shutdown for necessary annual repairs despite the full order book. Recycling and renewables adjusted EBITDA decreased to 10 million euros and this is due to lower volumes and softer scrap prices. Both are linked to the weak demand in Europe and seasonality. For Q4, we expect higher adjusted EBITDA, as this quarter is typically the strongest of the year, as we expected a better development at bioenergy. Stainless and electrical reported adjusted EBITDA of 36 million, so significantly lower demand due to seasonality in an already low cycle. and continued price pressure in Europe was only partially offset by a stable demand from seasonally strong Brazil. The outlook for the segment in Q4 is negative based on the seasonal lower demand in Brazil. The price pressure from imports as well as the challenging situation in Europe will be reflected in a lower EBITDA in this segment. However, even in this difficult period, we expect Europe to deliver a positive result. Service and solutions achieve an adjusted EBITDA of minus 1 million. These negative results reflect the current spot market situation as this segment took the biggest hit from the lower demand due to seasonality and negative pricing pressure. The market will be challenging, but after the weakest quarter of the year, we expect improved and positive EBITDA in Q4. Service is looking at some positive margin relief already in Q4. Alloys and specialties reported a quarterly EBITDA level of 25 million. Q3 was affected by seasonality, but also by the repair and maintenance of a key asset, that will also impact Q4 as previously guided. Universal integration is ongoing smoothly and we expect the synergies to be delivered as planned. However, the aerospace market is still fully stocked in our supply chain and we expect a recovery only in 2026. The LNG market is stable But a weaker oil and gas market is still waiting for a recovery, delivering a comparable EBITDA in Q4. Others and elimination came in at 4 million euros. And this is a typical Q3 figure in such low margin conditions to reduce activity. The intercompany eliminations resulting from the strong integration across upper-arm business, such as recycling, forest, stainless steel mills and distribution are located here, as well as the corporate cost. So moving to the next slide, let's talk about the leadership journey. As you know, the leadership journey is our self-help program focused on improving our competitiveness and driving appearance transformation. After exceeding our targets last year, we have achieved year-to-date 70 million euros, of which 29 million attributable to Q3. As a reminder, the phase five of the leadership journey is to achieve an EBITDA improvement of 200 million euros. This plan has three components. 28% consists in fixed cost reduction, 46% in variable cost improvement, and 26% mix and volume improvement. This includes the 50 million euros booster from a Cost Action Plan we already announced in Q3 2023 as an addition to our original Leadership Journey Plan. Even though the fuel effect of this plan will only pick up in a normalized economic environment, you can already see its impact in our actual EBITDA per ton versus the market. Even in difficult times, we are positive in Europe with stainless steel, but this is just not enough. As always, we will continue to focus on our competitiveness to remain the most profitable player in the market on every turn we ship. Now, I hand it over to Sud to talk about our deleveraging journey and our focus on capital employed.

Thank you, Nicolas, and a warm welcome from my side. I promised you after the closing of the Universal Acquisition that our key priority is deleveraging, and this is why I want to give you more color about the progress we achieved so far. As we have discussed before, Abram is not a conglomerate, but a uniquely integrated value chain where our businesses operate in sync with one another. While the EBITDA synergies are evident, I would like to take a moment and talk about our focus on capital employing. Our goal is to have benchmark networking capital agility. What this means is that between our segments, we strive to build and release networking capital without buffers towards external customers or suppliers, wherever it is appropriate in the value chain. And the results show for itself. Starting the peak post-integration of Universal in Q1 2025, we've been able to generate total cash of 326 million euros from operations post foreign exchange results. And after paying for capex of 63 million and financing our dividend for two quarters of 73 million, we've been able to reduce net debt from 1 billion, 235 million euros to 1 billion, 45 million euros. After the stronger development, I am happy to announce that we will increase our net debt reduction target for this year. Our original target was to reduce net debt by 200 million euros compared to Q1 closing until year end 2025. Now, until the end of the year, net debt should be reduced by more than 200 million euros compared to Q1 closing. The promise to deleverage within three years is still our focus. I'm also happy to announce that we've been able to successfully refinance our universal bridge six months ahead of our target. In total, we've secured financing of 790 million euros over the next three to seven years at competitive rates and without burdensome new covenants. This refinancing, combined with the IFC financing secured by our bioenergy of forestry operations beginning of this year, totals more than 1 billion euros in 2025 alone. This shows the trust the debt markets place in APRAM's ability to finance and deliver its transformation. Through our focus on self-help, leadership journey, as Nicola has described, and our focus on cash, we remain confident to earn the dividend for our shareholders during the lowest of cycles without raising debt fund our transformation, and be ready for the recovery whenever it happens. Moving to the next slide, I wanted to present Moody's assessment of our sustainability framework as part of our financing, which once again confirms APRAM's commitment to sustainable finance after the signing of sustainability link bank facilities in 2022 and 2023. And I'm happy to announce that this framework has been reviewed by Moody's. that has confirmed its alignment with the LMA sustainability link loan principles and awarded it the grade of SQS2, a level of very good. Also, Moody's net zero assessments indicate the opinion of the agency of the strength of APRAM's carbon transition plan relative to a net zero pathway, consistent with the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change. APRAM is rated at NZ minus two outcome, overall in line with the well below two degree trajectory, consistent with the Paris Agreement goals. But Moody's also notes that this is tempered by long-term uncertainties coming from outside of AFRAM's commitment, such as carbon legislation, raw material, and energy costs that may endanger the transition roadmap. I hand it over to Tim for the outlook.

Thank you, Sudha. With already 10 months of 2025 behind us, the recovery that many hoped for is nowhere in sight, especially in Europe. I made clear at the end of July that we don't expect any recovery in 2025. And unfortunately, this seems to be the reality. Based on the fragile expectation, we expect adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter below the Q3 results. A profitable Brazil is running into lower seasonal demand and price pressure from imports. We talked about the situation in Europe already, and there is no change expected in the fourth quarter when the market conditions remain challenging. Alloys is faced as in Q3 with a temporary software earning contribution. On the positive side, we see some support from valuation effects. Nevertheless, as Sud explained already, we will even slightly overachieve net debt reduction targets, driven by further networking capital optimization and self-help measures. We will continue to deliver as promised until the end of 2027, irrespective of market conditions. We reduced the CAPEX budget in summer to 170 million euros, and these should be the figures for this year. as you as always volatile commodity price and unforeseen effect on the macroeconomics situation could still change this mba and networking capital indication our quarterly update will be released at the beginning of january 26 i would like to remind you for our vision to be the leading value creator in the circular economy of infinite worth changing materials. We are working on this in bad and good times, always. Value creation for shareholder will continue to be our key differentiator. Starting next Monday, we'll meet investor Sud Nicola, Investor Relations and I will be on the road to attending conferences and carrying out a roadshow. All of us are looking forward to meeting as many of you as possible. Please contact our investor relations department with any feedback or if you need corporate access. Thank you very much for listening to Aperan Q3 Management Podcast. We wish you a pleasant day and look forward to your questions in our conference call this afternoon at 2 p.m. Central European Time.