11/7/2025

speaker
Thierry Le Hénaff
Chairman and CEO

Good morning, everybody. Welcome to Arkema Q3 2025 Results Conference Call. With me today are Marie-Josée Doncion, our CFO, and the Investor Relations Team. To support this conference call, we have posted a set of slides which are available on our website. And as usual, I will start with some comments on the highlights of the quarter before letting Marie-Josée go through the financials. At the end of the presentation, we'll be available as always to answer your questions. Let's commence first on the economic environment, which remains, as you know, challenging. We noted weaker than anticipated trends in the U.S. over the summer. The lower demand is probably a reflection of ongoing uncertainty around the tariffs and frictions in adjusting supply chains. On the other hand, Europe and Asia remain consistent with what we have seen since the start of the year. Europe at relatively low levels, and Asia still with a positive dynamic, in particular in China. The negative currency impact was also slightly stronger than in Q2. Despite this challenging macro environment, Our growth pockets, which are at the heart of our climate strategy, deliver substantial growth. As a matter of fact, our sales were at 20% in several key markets, namely batteries, sports, 3D printing, healthcare, and new generation fuel specialties with low global warming potential. This positive momentum is also supporting the ramp-up of our measure project on flight 7, but all in all that was not sufficient, obviously, to offset the strong macro headwinds of the saltwater. With the Q2 results, we share with you that this measure project should bring 50 million euros in 25 versus 24. I am happy to convey that we reassessed the progress and we can lift the impact to 16 million euros. This contribution is essentially supported by the strong momentum in PVDF for batteries, bio-source feedback in sports, and 233ZD for our specialties in building insulation. PM has also showed good growth since the start of the year thanks to new smartphone models and now flexible packaging at Hazy is starting to contribute. This is certainly less than the initially estimated €100 million attributed to the tough environment. Nevertheless, this project showed good momentum, and the setup for 2025 is encouraging. As you know, these projects are already fully financed and therefore are included in our capital employed with only limited contribution to the P&L In this regard, the group will gain around 2.5 points of ROC from this project over the next years, in addition to the improvement of the cycle, which will benefit everyone. We can mention also the start of two new plants in Q3 in the U.S., both on budget and on schedule. The new 1233 ZD unit, a fluorospecialty with low emissive impact used for building insulation or thermal management, and a new DMDS capacity for refining and biofuels, with an impact on earnings still limited in 2025. In addition, the new Rilsang Clear transparent polyamide plant reached mechanical completion. This unit, downstream of the polyamide 11 plant in Singapore, is expected to be operational in the first quarter of 2026. Given the tough environment, I'd like to stress that all teams are fully mobilized on a daily basis to best manage the current economic and geopolitical context. We run a number of cost-cutting initiatives, as shown in slide three, and are on track to deliver the targeted 100 million euros of fixed and variable cost savings by year-end. The cost alignment will continue, and we strive to again offset inflation in 2026. In addition, Arkema stayed disciplined in capital allocation. You see that we made progress in working capital management and delivered 200 million euros recurring cash flow compared to last year despite lower earnings. This cash generation is fully reflected in the reduced debt, maintaining a robust balance sheet. Arkema will once more reduce capex next year to 600 million euros while continuing to optimize its working capital. Despite all the efforts of the Archimedes team, EBITDA went down to 310 million euros. Looking at the results by segment, you could recognize the different profiles of each product line. Additive solutions and advanced materials are more resilient with earnings affected by lower demand, while net pricing was only slightly down. In contrast, there was more volatility in cuttings linked to the low cycle in upstream water leaks, while the all-generation flow of gases in intermediates reported a seasonally lower outcome. I already mentioned the ramp-up of our measure project, which reflects the execution of our growth strategy, but also our ability to work in parallel on two tasks. We focus on optimizing our operations in the short term, but at the same time secure our growth potential in the long term. This prepares us to be ready in the winter when the macro will again be more supportive. As highlighted before, we follow a strategy focused on five identified high-growth markets where we continuously look for new opportunities. In this context, I am happy to announce that we will expand our potential in the attractive adult electronics market by adding a new structured platform dedicated to data centers. You have heard details of it in slide five of our Q3 presentation. By dedicating joint initiatives to this powerful market, we see significant growth prospects, though starting from a low base. Besides, I would like also to emphasize Arkema's success in the battery market in Asia. Our bet on LFP batteries is clearly a winning one, and our strategy to expand our asset base with modest capex in China, Europe, and the U.S. turns out to be really good, putting us in a good position to move in this dynamic market. We recently inaugurated a new laboratory dedicated to the next generation of batteries, using an innovative dry-coating process for electrodes that significantly reduces the cost of battery production while lowering its carbon footprint. This innovation illustrates that PVD's long-term growth potential remains significant while offering premium margin on the target as we are doing the high-end of the range. I will now hand it over to Marie-Josée for more details or a more in-depth look at the financial before we discuss it at the end of the presentation.

speaker
Marie-Josée Doncion
Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Thierry, and good morning, everyone. So let's start with the Archimedes revenues. At 2.2 billion euros, our Q3 sales were down 8.6% year-on-year. They were impacted by a negative 3.9% currency effect, reflecting mainly the weakening of the U.S. dollar. against the Euro, but also from other currencies, including Chinese Yuan and Korean Won. Volumes were down 2.5%, reflecting the lower demand observed in the U.S. over the summer, and the overall weak demand environment in Europe. On the other hand, we continued to benefit from a positive dynamic in Asia, and more particularly China, mainly driven by high-performance polymers. The price effect was a negative 3.7%, impacted essentially by the acrylic cycle, and the all-generation refrigerant gases. All other activities showed a more limited price decrease of 1.3%, with a slightly negative net pricing. The benefit from lower raw material costs works progressively through the supply chain. Q3 beta came in at 310 million euros, the currency effect representing around 15 million euros negative. Looking at the performance by segment, Adhesives EBITDA reflected the weak demand in industrial adhesives and the disappointing summer in the U.S., notably in flexible packaging and construction. On the other hand, construction business grew in Asia thanks to positive momentum in efficient buildings and remained broadly flat in Europe. The performance of BOSIC continues to be supported by our ongoing work on efficiency and our price discipline. Finally, the integration of dowsabases brought a limited contribution this quarter due to the softness in the U.S. market. In advanced materials, the EBITDA was essentially affected by the volume decrease in performance additives that were impacted by the weak demand environment in Europe and in the U.S., as well as the reorganization of our JARI sites in France in hydrogen peroxide. On the other hand, high-performance polymers volumes were stable, benefiting from strong growth in Asia, And the margin of the advanced material segments remain overall as a good level, 18.8%, with HPP maintaining its solid margin level of 20%. In coatings, EBITDA was essentially impacted by the low cycle conditions in the upstream acrylics. Sales declined in the U.S., in particular in the construction and decorative paints markets. The performance of the segment was therefore significantly lower than last year. Lastly, intermediates to be done included the usual seasonality of the third quarter, as well as the impact of the evolution of regulations in the U.S. and Europe in refrigerant gases. Depreciation and amortizations stood at 168 million euros. They included the amortization of new production units, which started up in the course of 2024, as well as in 2025. This led to a recurring EBIT of 142 million euros and a EBIT margin of 6.5%. Non-recurring items amounted to 48 million. They include the typical 35 million euros of PPA depreciation and 13 million euros of one-off charges, not to blame the thresholding costs linked to the reorganization of our hydrogen peroxide site in France. Financial expenses, to that 33 million euros, the increased asset classes reflecting mainly the increased cost of our bonds as well as the lower interest of invested cash. And consequently, Q3 adjusted net income stood at 78 million euros, which corresponds to 1.04 euro per share. Moving on to cash flow and net debt, Arkema delivered a solid cash flow, as you could see in Q3, with recurring cash flow standing at 207 million euros. This reflects our continuous initiatives to tightly manage our working capital and integrates also decreasing cap excesses last year. The working capital ratio on annualized sales to that of 17.3% and total capital expenditure amounted to 131 million euros in line with our objective of 650 million euros for the full year 2025. Net debt amounts to 3.4 billion euros including 1.1 billion euros of hybrid bonds. The net debt to last 12 months EBITDA stands at around 2.6 times. Note also that we continue to refinance our 2026 bond maturities with the issuance in September of a €500 million green bond with an eight-year maturity and an annual coupon of 3.5%. This has also enabled us to extend our debt maturity now to 4.6 years. Thank you for your attention, and I'll now hand it over back to Thierry for the outlook.

speaker
Thierry Le Hénaff
Chairman and CEO

Thank you, Marie-José. So, going into Q4, the macroeconomic environment remains challenging, marked by low visibility and weak demand in the U.S. and Europe, so no surprises there. In this context, as already said, optimizing the short-term by working on fixed costs, capex working capital remains among our top priorities. We are on track, as mentioned, to achieve around €100 million of fixed and variable cost savings in 2025. More specifically, our numerous initiatives on fixed costs will enable us to offset inflation in both 2025 and 2026. At the same time, we continue to build Arkema for the future. It's very important. By maintaining our efforts in R&D as well as in sales and marketing, focus on the key attractive markets identified by the group, supported by the major projects that you are well aware of. Taking into account the macro environment that remains challenging and the softer than expected demand in the U.S., for the time being at least, we aim at delivering an EBITDA of between 1.25 billion and 1.3 billion euros in 2025, with a midpoint globally consistent with the consensus and a recurring cash flow of around 300 million euros. I thank you now very much for your attention, and together with Marie-José, we are certainly ready to answer any of your questions.

speaker
Conference Operator
Moderator

Thank you. If you wish to ask a question over the phone, please press star and 1 on your telephone keypad. If you wish to withdraw your question, please press star and 2. Again, please press star and 1 on your telephone to enter the question queue and wait for your name to be announced. Our first question is from Martin Rödinger, Kepler-Schöbre. Please go ahead.

speaker
Martin Rödinger
Analyst, Kepler-Schöbre

Yes, hello and good morning. I have three questions, if I may. The first question is for Thierry. Regarding the reason for this additional guidance cut this year, it seems you are getting more concerned about the US market, especially about the weaker construction market in the US. How do you see the near-term prospects in the US construction market? And the other two questions are for Marie-José. Other chemical companies have released bonus provisions in Q3, some already in Q2. Have you done that as well? And do you plan that in Q4? And is that part of the 100 million cost savings this year, which tackles both fixed costs and variable costs? And we know that bonus belongs to variable costs. And finally, on cost savings impact on your P&L, your SG&A costs. increase in Q3 quarter-on-quarter and year-over-year. Why do we not see the cost savings in your SG&A line? Thank you.

speaker
Thierry Le Hénaff
Chairman and CEO

Martin, thank you for your question. On the first one, what we see today is that yes, in the summer, the US was weaker than expected. not necessarily weaker than Europe, because Europe was already weak, but does that mean necessarily that we are more pessimistic on the U.S. going midterm? I think U.S., and we have a long experience there, because it's... 35% of our total sales around. I experienced in the U.S. that things are moving quite fast. This country is very agile. So you can have a quarter which is disappointing, and two quarters after, or it goes in the other direction. So I would be cautious of the answer. We just comment on what we see in Q3. We think Q4 will be in the same vein, but I would be cautious in extrapolating what it means for the following quarter, because just is the nature of the U.S. to be more reactive, and we have a little bit more volatility than we can have in other parts of the world.

speaker
Marie-Josée Doncion
Chief Financial Officer

So regarding cost saving, maybe more broadly, just to remind what we aim at doing, basically the objective is to deliver 100 million euro cost saving. I would say two-thirds fixed cost, one-third variable cost. And when we look at the fixed cost components, for sure they incorporate the bonuses. So this has been adjusted progressively as we progressed in the year based on the, let's say, the revised guidance we gave to you. So there is no last minute, I would say, effect that I expect in Q4. It's been progressively factored in the publications. So when you look at the evolution year on year, basically you see a slight increase, which means right now we are not fully offsetting inflation, but we are actually quite largely offsetting inflation. I consider inflation amounts to roughly 60, 70 million a year on fixed costs for Arkemao. And clearly, we are limiting the effect of increased costs right now at, I would say, only a total of 15 million euros. So clearly, we are producing or delivering the effort to massively compensate this inflation effect. So I'm not sure why you think it's not visible, but it's definitely visible internally when we look at our metrics. So no particular effect of provisions, which when you look at the balance sheet are rather stable over the period. Hope it answers your question.

speaker
Martin Rödinger
Analyst, Kepler-Schöbre

Okay. Thank you very much.

speaker
Thierry Le Hénaff
Chairman and CEO

Maybe to add also to Marie-José, when we say that we remove inflation for next year, this means that we take into account the fact that, as Marie-José said, that part of the savings this year are linked to bonuses, and we know that we need to have said that next year, but it's part of the game, and we take the challenge.

speaker
Conference Operator
Moderator

The next question is from Tom Wigglesworth, Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

speaker
Tom Wigglesworth
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Morning, everybody. Thanks for the presentation. Two questions, if I may. The first one is around the data center presentation that you made, and specifically the refrigerant gases. You talk about for rain, for chillers. What does that do to the market? Will that rapidly tighten the current offering of HF And then secondly, with regards to the immersive heaters, is that going to be a higher margin product than your current emissive refrigerant gas business? So that's a couple of questions there. Secondly, really on a higher level, obviously, if I look at the bridges for all of this year, pricing is going down faster than raw materials. Is that a function of mix, i.e., you're losing higher value products more so than you're keeping raw material gains? Or are you having to give back price to hold on to volume? Thank you.

speaker
Thierry Le Hénaff
Chairman and CEO

OK. Thank you, Tom, for this question. So very different in nature. So with regard to data center, first, as you could see, you have a presentation, page five. It's a first, I would say, exchange with you, data centers. It does not include, for the sake of your knowledge, it does not include what we do in battery for data centers. This means what stationary batteries is in the battery platform. So this means that when we say more than 100 million of cells in 2030 starting from a base, which is... Today, our first estimate is a bit more than 10 million, so a significant increase. It does not include what we are doing in battery. So, as you mentioned, chillers will be a key part on new generation of refrigerants. Today, the cells there are very, very limited, but we see strong potential for low GWP So it depends, as you know, on the technology of data centers. But we see there good growth with a good margin. But it's only one point among the six or seven. We see also growth for high-performance polymers. It can be PVF. It can be polyamide. 11 for wire and cable. It can be also bluesticks in flooring or waterproofing. It can be even for direct-to-chip cooling, kind of PVDF, et cetera. So we have plenty of applications there, but as you mentioned, HFO is certainly one element. With regard to pricing, in fact, it's interesting to see more detail what is happening in pricing. In fact, we separate acrylic monomers and flue gas. which obviously are affected significantly in pricing. The first one because of the cycle, the second one because of the evolution of generation, so it's not you don't compare apple to apple because of the quota mechanism. But clearly, intermediates is a big impact on pricing. Outside of intermediates, it's far less. And outside of acrylic monomers, it's even far less. For adhesives solution and advanced material, the net pricing is close to neutral, slightly negative, but close to neutral. And the pricing itself is around minus 1%. Now, with regard to raw material, What is happening is that, as you know, the supply chain, you have some stock, supply chain are long, and it takes time to work through for the raw material, to work through the P&L. And so you have a little bit of a time lag between the pricing effect and the raw material. But we are not worried at all. on, I would say, an easy solution, advanced material. You have some examples where we are a bit more, especially in China, under pressure in pricing there, but on the other side, we have positive pricing in some other areas, including our new business development with a high price. For us, the question of pricing, but you know it since the start of the year, is really concerning refrigerant for the old generation. And actually, .

speaker
Tom Wigglesworth
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Thanks for that, Jerry. Very helpful. Thank you.

speaker
Conference Operator
Moderator

The next question is from Matthew Yates, Bank of America. Please go ahead.

speaker
Matthew Yates
Analyst, Bank of America

Hey, good morning, everyone. A couple of questions if I may. Just like to follow up on Tom's one around the data center. As you said, it's the first time you've really mentioned this. So I'm just trying to educate myself a little bit. Where are you in the commerciality of some of these products? Are they technically developed? Are they qualified with customers? Are they already generating sales? Or is this more of an ambition? And there's a lot of work to do over the next few years to actually get these products to market and generate some revenue. So just the first question. The second one, I'm not sure if it's for you, Thierry or Marie-José, but I wanted to ask about the dividend issue. And we know that traditionally Arkema had some sort of other strategic priorities and the dividend payout ratio was relatively low. But compared to the amount of free cash you're now generating of 300 billion, it is effectively 100%. And you've got your leverage creeping up to three times. So can you give us an idea of how important and how sustainable that dividend is when you get to the end of the year and you debate that with the board and whether has it got to the point where if we don't see a macro improvement paying out so much is going to infringe on your strategic flexibility and whether you want to do you know capex projects or m&a whatever it is so just just like to hear your sort of philosophy around the dividend thank you

speaker
Thierry Le Hénaff
Chairman and CEO

Thank you, Matthew, for this important question, clearly. So with regard to data center, as I mentioned, so we have around a bit more than 10 million euros of sales, which means that we have already a commerciality of this product, and that most of the product we are talking about have already been developed. What takes time? And this is why we have a ramp-up up until 2030 to be above €100 million. And it does not, as I mentioned, take into account the PVDF for batteries in stationary, which go to data center, which is not insignificant. which is already fully commercial. But on what is outside, I would say we have already a certain maturity of the technologies themselves. So it's more a matter of developing application, so with some qualification, et cetera. So it will take the time it takes, knowing that in data centers, the technologies are really continuing to evolve, as you may know, significantly. So even for you would have already met yourself in certain application. Anyway, you need to work on the new application, the new technology, and to adapt your product and your new business development to this. So to answer your question, we are in the middle of your question, I would say. Some commerciality, mature technologies, but application are not fully mature, so we need to ramp up, and it will take a certain number of years. But I think it was mature enough to share. The data center call with you, and we'll have the opportunity to come back in far more detail next year on this topic of data center, which is, as I mentioned, joining the advanced electronics platform. With regard to the dividend, to a certain extent, the answer is in the question. The good thing first is that we are in absolutely trough conditions in specialty chemicals and in chemicals overall. And despite of that, we cover, with the free cash flow, we cover the dividend. So I think it's good news. You know that the dividend return to shareholder, is a very important policy for Arkema. So the idea is to make it sustainable. It has been in the past. You have not a year which is looking like the other one. And to make it sustainable, beyond what I've just said, you could see that next year CAPEX will be at 600 versus 650 this year. So it's a difference. Our project will also ramp up. So, no, I think we stay with the same idea. Obviously, it has to be decided by the board. So, we will have this discussion normally before the same presentation of your research. But this is the philosophy of Arkema.

speaker
Matthew Yates
Analyst, Bank of America

Okay. Thank you, Thierry.

speaker
Conference Operator
Moderator

The next question is from Georgina Frazier, Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

speaker
Georgina Frazier
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Hi, good morning. Thanks so much for taking my questions. I've got two. Nice to speak to you, Thierry and Marie-José. First question is on HPP. We've seen a decent amount of CapEx and also the acquisition of PM go into this division. And I just wanted to hear from you, how has the performance of this division been versus your expectations? And should we think about the fact that we're maybe at low utilization rates at the moment? I just want to try and gauge what kind of upside potential there is here and maybe why the performance has been a bit lackluster. And then my second question, a little bit of a follow-up on the dividend or cash flow outlook question. 600 million in capex next year is still quite high. Could you give us a sense of what your maintenance capex is and how much flexibility you have there if it was needed? Thank you.

speaker
Thierry Le Hénaff
Chairman and CEO

Yes, okay. Thank you, Georgina. Hello. So, on the first one, first of all, if you look at HPP, we have four lines, which are very interesting. We have PVDF, specialty fuel gases. We have polyamide 11, and we have . I would say all these lines are growing lines on which we have, as you mentioned, spent a high amount of money for development, for growth, for capex, and for acquisition. Clearly, this year is a challenging year for all chemical companies, so HPP is not immune. As you could see in this part of the performance of advanced materials, HPP has resisted compared to what we can see outside, but below our expectation because of the macro. So the projects themselves are ramping up okay, but they are not immune to the macro. So we, at the beginning of the year, were expecting more from HPP. The good thing is that we think that all the strategic moves that we have done with HPP were the right ones. that the line is certainly one of the most resilient inside Arkema, and the prospect of growth, even if they have been delayed to a certain extent because of the macro, the prospect of growth remains quite significant. With regard to utilization rate, it's clearly that in consistency with what we see from the macro, They are more on the side. And don't forget that we are also optimizing our inventory, as everybody is doing on the supply chain, from customers down to our suppliers. And because of that, we are, let's say... also adapt the utilization rate of our site. But we consider that HPP will continue to remain a bright spot of Arkema in the coming periods. With regard to CAPEX, I don't share with you the fact that CAPEX is still quite high at 600. And to share with you, because we have a discussion with all of you, including investors, some are telling other countries that maybe it's a bit too low. So I think for us, we think it's reasonable in this kind of environment to take down the capacity to something which remains relatively okay not to jeopardize our mid- and long-term growth. It would be a full mistake, and some companies have done that in the past in chemicals, and now they regret it. So we try to stay consistent over the years, But on the other side, we were in 24 at 750, then we are at 650 this year, next year 600. I think it's a good adjustment of the CAPEX in order to take into account the evolution of the MAPO. With regard to which part is maintenance, modernization, legislation, CAPEX, I would say that we have around, yes, 400 million euros of, when we were at 650, we were about 60, 60, 40, so this means that it's 400, yes, around 400, and the rest are really productivity, and development capex, but which are more of smaller scale compared to what we have been doing in the past three years with the major projects.

speaker
Conference Operator
Moderator

Thank you. The next question is from Jean-Luc Roman, CIC Market Solutions. Please go ahead.

speaker
Jean-Luc Roman
Analyst, CIC Market Solutions

Jean-Luc Roman, could you please get closer to the microphone, please?

speaker
Thierry Le Hénaff
Chairman and CEO

I am in the microphone. We hear a second voice behind you. Okay, so maybe we can take another one and then come back to you when we fix your topic.

speaker
Conference Operator
Moderator

Okay, so the next question is Shetan Udeshi, JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

speaker
Shetan Udeshi
Analyst, JPMorgan

Yeah, hi. Thanks for taking my question. I just had a bit more philosophical question. It seems from all your comments that your view is this is much more a cyclical approach phenomenon in the sector and you don't want to necessarily take any radical steps for that reason. Is that understanding correct? Because, you know, when I look at your numbers and it's not just Akeema, right? I mean, to be fair, it's across the whole sector. You know, everybody is suffering from the same issue and a lot of time, at least my personal opinion is it's blamed on demand weakness, which may or may not be The only reason. So I'm just curious, from your perspective, you don't see any structural changes in the industry that would warrant more structural changes in how Arkema is set up. I mean, you know, in terms of whether, you know, you need to have all of the businesses that you have within Arkema, or maybe it's better to monetize some of them, given the multiple. Thank you.

speaker
Thierry Le Hénaff
Chairman and CEO

So thank you for the question. It's a good question, at least on the paper, is that from what we see today, which part is, let's say, short-term cyclical and which part could be more structural? I would say we have been in the business, as you know, since 20 years, and frankly speaking, and you may have forgotten, what we have seen in 20 years are significant shifts in of the world. So you have at the same time, and it can be positive and negative. When you see structural change, the negative is always one-to-one with the positive. So you have opportunity and challenges at the same time. It's true today. It was true in the past 20 years. So this means that what we see today is a combination and this is a majority of what we see by far, of some macro-related cyclical issues, and it will come back. We absolutely consist of that. And then you have some more structural change. You have more, let's say, protectionism. You have more regionalization. You have more aggressiveness from Chinese countries. But by the way, we also take advantage of it because we are from in China and we have enjoyed quite a good year in China. Yes, this is the world of today. You need to be agile to adapt permanently. Where I don't agree with you is this question of radical step or whatever. I think if you look at the, for example, portfolio of Arkema, 60% of the of the business, which was at the origin, has been sold. We changed completely. We made the acquisition. I think it's part of our business life, and we continue to take the steps that make sense to do, and so we are thinking all the time, but not necessarily sharing what we are thinking with all of you, obviously. But no, no, I think we have a good level of reaction, and we try really to manage the two horizons at the same time. One is really short-term. working on the cost, working on the cash, and we think we are doing quite a great job thanks to the team on that. At the same time, having in mind that the frame in which we are operating is shifting a little bit, we are we are moving in order to adapt to that. This is what we have sold in the recent years at PMMA, and we bought Ashland MPM. And even if these two are not in terms of ramp-up, exactly where we would have thought they would be. I can tell you they are far more resilient than many businesses in chemicals, so it goes in the right direction. It takes time, but I think we are doing, we are really on the right topics, and we are doing, what we need to do and it does not prevent us from thinking all the time if another evolution could be meaningful or not so no no we are We recognize that, and it's good for us. I've always said that Arkema would not be the Arkema of today. It's a world that would be easier and lighter than you would have had the same players as they were 20 years ago. I think the fact that there is disruption, maybe we suffer shorter, but we think that in the long run, it gives opportunity to companies like us, to companies that are reactive and agile, ready to question themselves, to take new opportunities and to make a difference with the other guys.

speaker
Shetan Udeshi
Analyst, JPMorgan

Okay, thank you very much.

speaker
Conference Operator
Moderator

The next question is from Emmanuel Matou, Odoo BHF. Please go ahead.

speaker
Emmanuel Matou
Analyst, ODDO BHF

Hello Thierry, hello Marie-José. I have three questions. First, do you think we are close to the bottom of the cycle now that the issue of customs life has been settled in the U.S.? What your main customers are telling you in that country, it seems you are very cautious about the scenario of recovery next year considering your decision to reinforce your efforts on cost. Second, can we have an update on PM? How is it delivering in the current context? And my last question, Your inventory levels at the end of September are stable in value compared to the end of June at 1.3 billion euros. Does this mean that it will be very difficult to reduce stock in the future if demand does not recover? Thank you.

speaker
Thierry Le Hénaff
Chairman and CEO

Okay. Clearly, as I mentioned, we are in low cycles. Where are we exactly? I think everybody has to be modest on that. All the analysts and all the players in the industry, we have all been wrong. My feeling is that we are really at a low point, and it has been... also a long period of decline quarter after quarter. So I don't know if we are at the bottom, but we get close to the bottom. And what we cannot say is when the recovery will start. And this is why I think we gave the message. We want to be ready for whatever scenario. This is why at the same time, we really optimize what is linked to cost, cash, etc., but not jeopardizing the ability to rebound when the cycle is coming back. And your experience has been that each time The light has come back. We are one of the first ones to take advantage of the recovery, so we want to stay with this mindset while recognizing the challenge of the current macro and adapting what we have to do, but without losing, I would say, the focus on the long-term development of Arkema. It's a fine balance, but I think this is what we try to do so far. On scale, so as you know, it depends really on the market, particularly advanced electronic of PR. The vision per quarter can change because it depends on the stock policy of the customer, et cetera. But globally, we... We have done a good year, a good progression for PYAM with a margin around, again, 30% in Q3, which means the resilience of PYAM far above any product line in specialty chemicals. They were rather stable in Q3 after a very strong growth in Q2. I don't want to talk 26 for the time being, but I can make just a short comment is that this seems to be quite positive on 26 and from their discussion with the customers. So I would say PIAL certainly liked from their initial business plan, but quite resilient, growing this year. rather positive for next year. On your last question, I think the difficulty... First, we are doing a good job on our stock. You can see that in the cash generation. The difficulty when you are in the middle of the year, especially at the end of the Q3, is that you are still at the point where the sales seasonality is rather stable, so you cannot also take the risk of losing sales. But we know that we have opportunities to reduce further our stock up until the end of the year, and we will do it, and we know how to do it. Maybe, Marie-Josée, you want to complete?

speaker
Marie-Josée Doncion
Chief Financial Officer

So, in fact, Emmanuel, when you look at the ratio of inventory on sales, Frankly, we are very much aligned if you compare with last year. Last year, end of the year, we finished with $1.3 billion, which represented 14.7% of our sales in terms of level of stock. And this year, we are at $1.3 billion, as you mentioned, which represents 15% of our 12-month sales. So, ultimately, because it's still not year-end, you know, there is a very limited, let's say, excess of stock in the chain compared to last year-end level. So, definitely, we are adjusting permanently to the forecast, and there is an additional expected reduction for year-end on this metric in particular.

speaker
Emmanuel Matou
Analyst, ODDO BHF

Okay, thank you very much.

speaker
Conference Operator
Moderator

The next question is from James Hooper Bernstein. Please go ahead.

speaker
James Hooper
Analyst, Bernstein

Good morning and thank you very much for taking my questions. I have two, please. The first is about the cost savings and the delivery. How does the increase fit into the ambition that you had at the 2023 CMD to deliver... you know, 250 million savings over the five years. So you've added the incremental 50 million this year. Is it the opportunity has become 50 million bigger, or is this more just pulling forward savings to kind of take advantage of the current situation? And then the second question is about the kind of special necessity material projects. So initially when you guided 2025, you had 100 million. They've been downgraded to 60 million. What kind of growth potential contribution are you expecting if we assume a similar macro environment in the coming years? And to kind of put another way, if these projects have contributed 60 million more and EBITDA is down 250 million year on year, then what actions are you taking for the rest of the business? Or can these businesses grow fast enough to offset you know, weakness elsewhere despite your cost savings. Thank you.

speaker
Thierry Le Hénaff
Chairman and CEO

Okay. With regard to additional, to cost savings, so, yes, clearly what we are doing is not just to get quicker on the cost savings, it's to add cost savings. This means that if we say, for example, this year, we increase by 50 million. This means the 50 million, we find them at the end of the five-year period. So this means that we are at 300. to deliver the set of inflation will be again significantly above the 50s. This above will be also on top of this 300 we have just talked about, et cetera. There is no way we will stay at 250. It will be at the end far more than 250. I think it answers your question. On the project contribution, the growth potential for us is intact. So the question is more, it depends on the scenario of the macro. It depends if the macro is coming back already in the course of next year or later, whatever. What is clear is that we believe that the numbers we have shared with you are still the same. The question is more the timeline. This means that If the macro is coming back sooner than later, I think we can certainly still target 400 in 28. If we take more time, it will be difficult to deliver the 400, but I think the best will be to have an update in the course of next year on this project. What is very important for me is that this project is, from a strategic standpoint, And it comes to a certain extent, it's consistent with the answer I made to the question before. The strategy that is supporting this project is still completely valid. Even if the world is changing all the time, I think these projects are still completely relevant from what we see of the evolution of the world, and this is the most important thing. Now we can debate on the timing, if we can still maintain what we said for the achievement of the 428, or if the macro remains similar, as you mentioned, then by nature there will be some delay. But at the end, the contribution will still remain very significant, and the endpoint will be the same, clearly. Now, as we said, I don't know if it is really your question on additional action on the project. You got the answer. No. The work of Arkema is not limited to this project. There are plenty of new business which are absolutely not linked to this project. And clearly, looking at, for example, when we discussed data center, which was not in our, so much, in our vision up until recently is something that we will develop will be not linked to this major project. It's something else. So we permanently continue to complete our new business development prospect based on the evolution of the world.

speaker
Conference Operator
Moderator

The next question is from Jean-Luc Roman, CIC Market Solutions. Please go ahead.

speaker
Jean-Luc Roman
Analyst, CIC Market Solutions

Good morning.

speaker
Thierry Le Hénaff
Chairman and CEO

You have to talk a little bit louder, I don't know, because it's very low.

speaker
Jean-Luc Roman
Analyst, CIC Market Solutions

My question relates to the five outlets which have 20% growth. When you first talked about those five sectors, it was representing 50% of your sales and your target is 25%. Where are you now in terms of the weight of those five outlets which are going faster than the rest of your business?

speaker
Thierry Le Hénaff
Chairman and CEO

Okay, so if I used to ask the question, These 20% growers belong to the fight market, which represents 15% of Arkema. But they are not, we don't make 20% of the full 15%. It's an extract. The market we are mentioning at the beginning, battery, sport, et cetera, it's a part of the five markets, of the five platforms. This means it's 20% applying more to around 7% of the sales. On the rest, the other 8%, we are far more stable. Does it answer your question?

speaker
Jean-Luc Roman
Analyst, CIC Market Solutions

Thank you very much.

speaker
Conference Operator
Moderator

We take a last question. Gentlemen, there are no more questions registered at this time.

speaker
Thierry Le Hénaff
Chairman and CEO

Okay, so if no other question, I would like to thank you very much for taking the time to hear us, and I wish you a good day. Don't hesitate to come back to Beatrice and to James if you have any further questions. Thank you very much again.

Disclaimer

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