Aeroports De Paris Sa

Hello and welcome to the Group ADP 2023 full year results. My name is Caroline and I will be your coordinator for today's event. Please note this call is being recorded and for the duration of the call, your lines will be on listen only mode. However, you will have an opportunity to ask questions at the end of the call. This can be done by pressing star one on your telephone keypad to register your questions. If you require assistance at any point, please press star zero and you'll be connected to an operator. I will now hand over the call to your host, Cécile Combo, the Head of Investor Relations at Group ADP, to begin today's conference. Thank you.

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. I am Cécile Combo, Head of Investor Relations at Group ADP, and with me are Augustin de Romanet, Chairman and CEO, Edward Arquette, Deputy CEO, and Philippe Pascal, CFO. After going through some prepared remarks about our full year results, we will open the line to Q&A. Two questions each should allow all of you to dialogue with the management. As a reminder, certain information to be discussed on today's call is forward-looking and subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. For this, I refer you to the disclaimer statement included in our press release and on slide 47 of our presentation. And with that, let me hand it over to Chairman and CEO, Augustin de Roumanet.

So, good morning, everybody. Ladies and gentlemen, dear friends, thank you, Cécile. And thanks for everybody to join us to talk about our full year results. So, slide three. You have the highlights of our full year results. So the transformation engaged with 2025 Pioneers is progressing well and we are seeing tangible results at all levels. First, traffic. Traffic is developing in line with our expectations and we are now very close to full recovery at group level. As you see, the recovery is better abroad than in France. We are fully on track with the deployment of our new retail concept next time, and it's already showing promising results for the future we will develop. Third, we continue to work on reinforcing our photo growth relays with our international portfolio of airport assets. And then, we are delivering a robust set of results while acting on the decarbonization of our activities. So let's take a closer look at these four achievements. First, traffic. So in 2023, traffic end up in line without expectations in Paris and internationally. We see almost full recovery at group level with traffic at 1999 of 2019 level representing 20% increase against last year. In Paris, traffic grew 15% to reach close to 100 million passengers, or 92% recovery. During last summer in Paris, we had a foretaste of the Olympics with the Para Athletics World Championships, followed by the Rugby World Cup during fall. Improving our passenger experience remains a priority in all our airports, in Paris and abroad, with or without sport events. The older teams of Group ADP are fully mobilized to bring our values of hospitality to life and welcome all passengers into our airports to our best. And the deployment of each time is in this period. So if you can put the next slide, yes, X-Time slide. So X-Time is a part of the range of services we propose to passengers who travel to our Parisian platforms. And our aim is to export this concept. This concept was introduced with our 2025 Pioneers roadmap, and the past year was really year one of its fallout. We've deployed the new brand in all Paris Charles de Gaulle and Orly terminals. The migration to the concept of boutique terminal became a reality at Terminal 1 and Terminal 2 BD, which are the two pilots in the premium and lifestyle formats. In the next slides, Philippe Pascal will explain you how this concept allows us to have with the Terminal 1 the best terminal of the world if you consider the spend-per-packs. We also set up the basis for the X-Time digital ecosystem. The new X-Time reward program has nearly 3 million members, exactly 2.7, and the new online marketplace is already operational. are two key elements to stimulate demand and increase sales. Each time reward members spend close to twice as much as non-members. Last, we've also set up a new organizational and economic model with the creation of certified operators and the installation of internal financial flows linked to the franchise model. All in all, We can see that this strategy is already producing very good results. Spent per pax in Paris reached 30.6 euros in 2023, which is 12% higher than in 22, and 30% higher than in 2019. And if I can add, 90% higher than in 2020. 2012 because in 2012 we were at 16 euros per pack so it's very promising now the Paris Olympics challenge we will open the gates to the games in a few months which means that during just a few weeks next summer we will be welcoming thousands of athletes journalists and officials in our airport, in and out of the gates, with luggage and equipment requiring special care. To handle this challenge, we've been working on adapting our infra. For example, in Paris CDG, we refurbished a boarding lounge that will be dedicated to athletes, and we have also launched a temporary luggage sorting area. We are also mobilizing our team within a volunteering program. This special operational organization has also been designed to offer the best possible hospitality to summer tourists. The Olympics are acting as booster to our transformation, as you can see on the next slide. In fact, the Olympics are raising the bar in terms of quality of service and operational resilience. It's also a very good opportunity to introduce some long-lasting transformations which are fully consistent with our 2025 Pioneers by Vision. To illustrate that, I will just mention three points. The remote check-in service at the Olympic Village. This large-scale experimentation will provide critical input for our future platform plans. Second, the arrival of Metro Line 14 in our new multimodal station at Orly will allow persons to go from the center of Paris to Orly by Metro Line in 30 minutes. with a direct line. Equipment power ups are 75 complaints today and operations in preparation for commissioning are well engaged. It's a contig step towards decarbonisation and quality of access to our platform. We consider that we will increase the level of people arriving by collective transportation by 10% the first year. The Olympics help us making our airports more inclusive. Since October, we've set up a consultative committee for people with disabilities, which have already led to the rollout of developments to improve accessibility. This being said about Paris, let's move on to our international activities. In 2023, we continued to strengthen our international portfolio. To name a few of the progress made this year, you can see a dozen of them on this slide, I will mention that works are ongoing to increase the capacity of several of the group airports, notably Almaty in Kazakhstan, Antalya in Turkey, and Delhi in India. The latter being already the groups most frequented airport ahead of Charles de Gaulle. Together with our partner in India, we initiated the first steps towards the merger of GAL into GIL. The new merged company will be a listed airport pure player in which ADP will keep strong governance rights and economic interests. We continue to expect the transaction to be completed in the second quarter of this year. Third, TAVR Ports issued its first ever bond in the last quarter, raising $400 million and showing its ability to finance autonomously its needs and development. It's important in Turkey because, as you know, it's very hard to have a good access to the financial market, and TAVR showed a very, very good performance in this aspect. Last, in India, GAL increased its stake to 70% in the very successful Hyderabad airport, a valuable key asset. These achievements fit with our strategy of developing strong growth relays abroad with long maturities. Now, decarbonization. In 2023, we continue to work on ways to reduce our internal emissions and contribute to support low-carbon aviation. The improvement of our energy mix is a key lever to reduce internal emissions. In Paris, we have entered into discussions with providers with aim to develop additional solar farms covering increasing electricity needs of our platforms. AIG in Jordan inaugurated a solar farm at Amman Airport last December, with a generation capacity of close to 25% of the airport's operational energy requirements. Clark Airport is also moving in this direction and is applying for regulatory approval. Regarding decarbonization of airside activities, I will not only mention the intensive work to accelerate electrification of our platforms. We are doing what is necessary to meet the new electrical needs linked to mobility, but also electric alternatives to APUs. We are also actively supportive to the transition of air transport industry as illustrated at the bottom part of the slide. More broadly about our corporate and social responsibility, you can see on slide 10, The recognition of our actions. Group ADP was awarded on AA+, so 89% per 100 rating by the ASC score rating agency in December 2023. We responded to the CDP climate analysis and got B management rating in line with the Europe regional average. And four additional airports of ADP network have joined. the airport carbon accreditation program. You know, it is the ACI program to decarbonize airports. So our commitment is total. The appreciation of our CSS strategy and actions by these actors brings an additional tool to measure our progress and compare with others. To finish this introduction, I will highlight our strong financial performance on next slide 11. We've recorded an EBITDA above 1.9 billion euros. Net income group share reached 631 million euros, up 22% compared to 2022. In line with our distribution policy, we will propose a dividend of 3.82 euros in the next General Assembly. And now it's time to give the floor to Philippe Pascal, who will comment more in detail our full year financials. Thank you.

Thank you, Augustin. Good morning, everyone. We start by a focus on traffic in Paris, slide 13, as highlighted by Augustin. Traffic continued to recover in line with our assumption, reaching 92% of 2019 levels in our operation platform. In detail, we can see that traffic with mainland France shows a structurally lower recovery at 75% of 2019 traffic, reflecting the closure of several domestic routes, as well as the impact from strikes. Traffic with Europe has recovered well to 96% of 2019 traffic. We saw an acceleration of this trend in the second half. Lastly, international traffic, which is the most accretive, stands at 95% of 2019 traffic. North America reached 100% of the 2019 level, while traffic with Africa is largely beyond recovery. Traffic recovery with Asia Pacific is weaker, as expected, mainly due to the slow but gradual recovery of traffic with China. We nevertheless saw an acceleration in the second half of 2023. There are currently 46 weekly flights with China compared to 79 flights per week in 2019 during the winter schedule. In the month of December, traffic with China was 54% of 2019 level. Moving to slide 13 to look at retail business in Paris. SpendPerPax reached new records of €30.6 in 2023, plus €3.2 above 2022, confirming the structural improvement driven by the deployment of ExTime. As mentioned by Augustin, Terminal 1 has been very contributive. in its international area is now greater than Terminal 2E or K, which is also reaching record levels. In 2023, both were above 70 euros per departing passenger. Looking forwards, the reopening of terminal 2E and 2C in 2024 and the rolling works in the retail area of terminal 2E or 2K are expected to create some headwinds over the short term. Despite this, we expect the continual rollout of Xtime to drive performance and more than offset the negative effects I mentioned. We hence expect SPP to overall continue to grow. Moving on to slide 15, to see strong traffic in our two main international assets. On the left side, we can see that Chiavi Airport has overall fully recovered its 2019 traffic. In airports located in Turkey, this growth is driven by strong international traffic. Almaty is recording strong growth with passenger traffic close to 150% of 2019. On the right side, you see that Jema airport is also beyond recovery thanks to the strong growth of both domestic and international traffic in India. Goa airport, Opened in January 2023, welcomed more than 3.7 million passengers for its first year, including international flights since the summer. Moving on to slide 16, revenue reached 5.5 billion euros in 2023. Driven by the traffic recovery in Paris, the aviation segment revenue is up 14% year-on-year. The retail and services segment is up 23%, helped by the solid sales per packs coming in addition to traffic rules. Real estate segment is up 6%, that's just 2022. Abroad, the growth of TAV Airport revenue has been very strong, driven by both its airport asset and its service company. Moving on to slide 17, with OPEX standing at 3.6 billion euros, up 17% compared to 2022. This evolution is in line with revenue growth, demonstrating the tight cost management from the company. As mentioned on the right side of the table, we had various adverse effects, driving out cost base up in 2023 compared to 2022. I will mention in particular infrastructure reopening in Paris, the effect of inflation on some purchasing contracts at the mother company, the incremental recruitment made as well as salary increase for the last year and the higher personal cost of TAV airport. Regarding the costs linked to the Olympic Games, action implemented in 2023 and 2024 are causing additional expenses. The total envelope is estimated between 40 to 50 million euros. Among these envelopes, close to 8 million euros have already been committed and accounting for in the 2023 OPEX. On top of that, note that as well that we have a provision around 25 million euros already in 2023. All in all, we deliver 1.9 billion euros EBITDA, up 15%, driven by traffic recovery and reflecting good cost control. In 2024, we aim to maintain strict cost management discipline in a context that will remain challenging, as you can see, at the bottom part of the slide. That said, I'm moving to slide 18. We have included an additional slide in our presentation. In fact, there is a second one, Net Income 2, to further lighten our performance. You see here an analysis of our performance excluding elements occurring over a limited period of time, which we call one-off items. The list of one-off items for 2022 and 2023 is specified in the bottom part of the slide. Excluding one-offs, 2023 EBITDA is up 18.4% against 2022 and EBITDA margin is up 0.3 points to 36.6% as you can see on the graph in the middle of the slide. Below EBITDA on slide 19, there are several items to highlight. The €61 million increase of our share of results is associated with GVs, mainly due to €38 million capital gain on the sale by TAV Airport, as part of its stake in Medina Airport, but also €38 million gain from impaired inflation accounting in TAV Airport, GVs and associated. Financial result is broadly stable with several items offsetting each other, notably 45 million euros provision reserve sold on Medina offset by the capital gain of 46 million euros for the sale of Schiphol in 2022. The income tax expenses is also increasing by 16 euros compared to 2022 due to the strong improvement in pre-tax income. and despite a 21 million non-cash gain from the hyperinflation accounting of the airport. Given this, and the solid underlying EBITDA performance, the net results group share stands at 621 million euros, up 22%. Slide 20 shows an analysis of the net results, excluding one-offs, labeling a very solid Underlying results at 552 million euros in 2023, up 40.5% compared to the underlying result of 2022. Moving on to slide 21, you can see on this bridge the main items explaining the evolution in our net debt. In addition to the usual cash outflows, which are the dividend payments and CAPEX, which amount to 1 billion. This year, we can note two specific cash outflows. First, it's the SECB for GAL issue for 331 million euros, and the second is for 119 million euros, the upfront payment made by TAV on the Turkish airport authorities, representing 25% of the rent for Ankara concessions. At the end of the year, net debt is just below 8 billion euros, standing at 4.1 times EBITDA, an earthly improvement of 0.3 times EBITDA. Finally, on slide 22, for the latest development, our 2024 tariff proposal has been approved by the regulator. It represents an average increase in tariff of 4.5%. As the French regulator validated our tariff proposal, the ability to pass the impact of the new tax through the tariff is being approved. The 4.5% tariff increase allows us to offset not only a part of the OPEC inflation, but also around half of the impact of the portion of the new infrastructure tax falling into the regulated part on a full year's basis. I remind you indeed that tariffs are applied for April, so only nine months of this new tariff in the calendar year. We therefore confirm the number we can give you in September of an impact of the tax to around 90 million euros in 2024. And with that, I will hand back to Augusta to conclude.

Thank you, Philippe. So, I will give you a few comments on our truck starting with our guidance. So, with our 23 results, we see that we will approach in 2024 2019 traffic levels in Paris and probably exceeding them at group level. We see as well that we have already surpassed the 2019 consolidated EBITDA leave-up. So, two elements lead us to change and to adapt our guidance. First, the new tax applicable for 2024 to major transport in France will impact the Group's financial trajectory, as reminded by Philippe a minute ago. So, it was a reason to change our guidance. how to change them. Now we expect to return to growth rates close to those experienced before COVID. So it seems us that it was convenient for all of you to keep now guidances with level of increase. And we are therefore updating our forecast for 24, 25, in order to take into account these elements and return to a selection of indicators that enable a direct reading of the evolution of our performance without reference to 2019. Our updated assumptions and guidances are as follows. First, in 2024, group traffic should be up by more than 8% compared to 2023. In Paris, Paris traffic should increase between 3.5% to 5% in 2024 compared to 2023 and increase between 2.5% to 4% in 2025 compared to 2024. EBITDA should grow by more than 4% in 2024 compared to 2023 and by more than 7% in 2025 compared to 2024. The Ex-Time Pari Self-Fair Pax should increase between 3 to 5 percent in 2025 compared to 2023. Last, our Net Debt to EBITDA Ratio should stand between 3.5 to 4 times EBITDA in 2025. The other items of our Capital Allocation Policy are unchanged, meaning our CAPEX Guidance on Dividend Distribution Policy are confirmed. Looking beyond the next few years, ADP has initiated the first steps to prepare our long-term airport infra development in Paris. Future development will be done in accordance with our 2025 Pioneers Programme of a sustainable and multi-model platform that meets the growing demand for international traffic Because traffic growth in Paris is expected to be moderate, it means 1 to 1.5% long-term average annual growth rate, with the mixed traffic shifting in favor of international traffic. In Orly, this vision materializes in the Paris-Orly 2030 plan. We'll put an emphasis on decarbonization, quality of service for both passengers and airlines, and on developing attractive real estate opportunities. We've decided to present priority 2035 program to local stakeholders in a public consultation starting the 26th of February in a few days. It's a voluntary undertaking from ADP. The plan presented will be indicative and the inputs provided by the contested parties will help adjusting in a second step. In Paris CDG, the long-term development plan will also be presented to local stakeholders from autumn 2024 onward. So, the last slide shows us that ADP transformation is well underway with 25 pioneers. To wrap up this presentation, I would say that we delivered a strong performance in 2023, achieving a good performance if you look at the 10 last years. I will just give you two figures, interesting. The increase of the traffic in Paris, has been only 12% for 2012 to 2023. We had 89 million packs in 2012, and 99.7 million packs in 2023, plus 12%. In the same time, the EBITDA grew by 92.3%, And the net result grew by 85%. It means that the company develops in retail, in international development. The international part of the operational result was 5% in 2012. It's 25% today. It will be 40% around 2030 without international growth. So this was about performance. Now we are in the starting blocks for the 2024 Paralympic Games and Paralympic Games. While continuing to progress on the transformation initiated with 25 Pioneers Roadmap, it means that we are preparing the future of our platforms. We continue to develop our international network. allowing for a balanced exposure between moderate growth in Paris and very dynamic markets abroad. We are also sure our future is decarbonized because this is how we will earn our license to grow further. So with that, Philippe Pascal, Edouard Acquart, and myself will be happy to answer you for questions. Operator, if you... can open the line for Q&A. We are available. Thank you very much.

Sure. Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please signal by pressing star 1 on your telephone keypad. We will take the first question from line Ramhan from Jefferies. The line is open now. Please go ahead.

Good morning. Thank you very much for the question. Just two from me. Firstly, on pricing, obviously good to see getting 4.5% in for this year. Do you have any sense of what you could expect for the 2025 period? Should we I expect you to get the other half of the concession tax that you're offsetting with the 3% this year. Do we get another 3% plus any cost inflation in 2025? That's the first question. And then second question, just on your CapEx guidance, you came in quite a bit below your $1.3 billion average per year for the group. Just wondered if looking at your maintained the average guidance for the next two years, should we be penciling in closer to 1.5 billion for those two years as would be implied to reach the average? Is that how we should be thinking about it? Thank you.

Thank you for your two questions. Your first question about the pricing. As per annual tariff approval process, we will be submitting a 2025 tariff with a view to respect all applicable caps. So our regulated roadshed will be impacted by the new tax and the regulator has validating the pass-through in tariff. After that, the 2025 business plan will depend on the usual over-factors, growth expectation and OPEX evolution notably. It is quite too early to comment on the proposal we would make for the next year. Our intention remains to fully offset the tax for its regulated part eventually. So we will remain cautious and go for a more moderate incremental increase and not risk a refusal. So globally, for the moment, it is too early to answer this question. For your second question about CAPEX, so as you know, we confirm our guidance in terms of CAPEX. We think we have enough flexibility to manage our CAPEX trajectory, to optimize our investment, and to reach between 3.5 to 4 times EBITDA in 2025. Our target is to control our CAPEX more to spend all our target. But to be comfortable with this assumption, in fact, it's very important for us to manage our schedule in terms of CAPEX, to try to implement our industrial plan in 2024-2025 to be allowed to welcome all the passengers in good condition for the next years. So globally, for the moment, we confirm our guidance, but we are, in fact, in line to try to optimize our CAPEX if it is possible and if it is conformed to our industrial needs. Thank you.

Thanks very much.

Thank you. We will take the next question from line Christian Netto-Kuhl from EBS. The line is open now. Please go ahead.

Hi, thank you very much. Maybe two questions. I guess the first time coming back on the tariffs next year, the regulator seems to believe the WACC is 4.5%. And I guess from your guidance, this year you seem to generate a little bit below or around 4.5%. Now, when I think at 2025, you have some benefits. So, You're trying to pass through furthermore of the infrastructure tax, another 30, 40 million. You're going to have the non-repeat of the Olympic cost, potentially another 25, 30 million. And you're going to have some passenger growth. So what I'm trying to say is your regulated EBIT goes up by 50, 60 million at least from the infrastructure tax and from the non-recurring of the Olympics cost. Now that 60 million is already 100 basis points on your regulated asset base. So it means your regulated return goes to 5.5% at least. So I guess my question is in this scenario, isn't the tariff decline the most probable outcome in 2025? The second question, if I look at your net debt to EBITDA guidance for 2025, the range that you provide, It is suggesting that there's not a lot of free cash flow generation over the next two years. But I guess my question is, from 26, when your capex in Paris is likely to go up meaningfully, is it fair to assume that you may be into negative free cash flow territory for a few years to reflect that? Thank you.

So thank you for your two questions. So your first question about the tariff and the level of WAC calculation and the the different guidelines published by the French regulator. So to be clear, the French regulator, the first estimation of the French regulator in terms of regulated work is 4.5%. It's the first estimation in line with the guidelines published by the French regulator. So we have two points, but we are not comfortable with the estimation of the French regulator. The first point is the fact that the selection of PF for the beta calculation is not very fair. The French regulator is talking into consideration airports that we consider are not comparable to EDP because they are illiquid stocks. The French regulator compares with Bologna and Vienna airports. And the both airports are low free float and trading volume. For us, it's not fair to compare EDP with Bologna and Vienna airports. The second point is the non-inclusion of treasury in the cost of capital. That is also not fair. The fact that we need a strong cash position not only to face our expenses, our capex commitments, all our situation, but also to guarantee an attractive credit rating that is fundamental for us to finance our future development. In Paris, we look at Plexpan, but also abroad. So, all in all, the estimation of 4.5, it's not a final position of the French regulator. It's a first estimation, and for that, we have to work to convince the French regulator that is not acceptable at this time. But you have also a good question about the dynamic of the financial trajectory of your EDP. So remember that the regulated roadshed is also the level of OPEX, the level of CAPEX. It's also the level of traffic through the increase in terms of revenue. We have some one-off effects. We disclosed that for 2022 and 2023. We have also one-off effects. in 2024, we know that at the end of the day we assume a slight decrease in terms of regulated ROCE for 2024. In fact, we also, and you can see in our EBITDA target, we expect for 2025 an increase in terms of EBITDA. Our guideline is very clear, plus 7% in 2025. We assume this guideline. In fact, we can have more tariff increase, but we assume also the fact that we improve strongly our financial performance through a good cost control. That is our first step. It's a little bit early to give you more color about our tariff increase in 2025, but we work hard to stabilize our trajectory and we are confident of that. The proof is our new guidance. The second question about debt net and the free cash flow. We don't disclose free cash flow, but we can give some color about the traffic growth. When you see our guidance, we can see that we change our structure of guidance just to focus on the dynamic of the traffic. And we can have a slow dynamic in terms of traffic. We can see that. And we assume the traffic grows lower than the pre-COVID situation. In our press release, we can see that we assume a dynamic in terms of traffic for 2050 between 1.3% to 1.5%. We can also give you more color about the free cash flow for an important capex for the industrial plan in CDG, but also in Orly. We announced a huge consultation about that. But all in all, we know that in our industrial CAPEX plan that we have some needs, but we have also room of manoeuvre to finance that. Finally, globally, we're monitoring our costs. And for that, we can see that we have some new slide in our presentation to make the proof that it's manageable. We have a good dynamic in terms of OPEX. But at the same level, compared to revenue, and we can accelerate this control. We can see that in our guidance. And we also confirm an improvement of our debt net EBITDA in the short term with the new guidance for 2025. So thank you for these both questions.

Thank you very much.

Thank you, we will take the next question from line, Alexandra Haradao-Joseph from HSBC. The line is open now, please go.

Yes, good morning. Three questions, please. First, could you please talk about the drivers for traffic growth this year, leisure versus corporate traffic growth, short haul versus long haul traffic growth, and what is your expectation on traffic from China this year? Second, looking at your long-term traffic expectation of 1 to 1.5% traffic growth, it is lower than other airport operators are indicating medium to long-term. So how do you expect traffic in Paris to perform relative to the European market in the medium term? What is your expectation in terms of leisure and corporate traffic going forward? And how do you expect the exposure of Paris airports to be to low-cost traffic medium-term? And third, there is a significant planned increase in airport infrastructure in India over the next one, two years, and there will be a new airport close to Delhi Airport short-term, NOIDA, Do you see any risk of some airline shifting capacities from the GMR airports to other airports over the next one, two years? Thank you.

Thank you, Roxandra, for your question. So in terms of mixed traffic, so clearly we don't disclose really the mixed traffic in terms of leisure and corporate. Globally, we can see... But it's not a key question for airports. It's more a question for airlines. Corporate traffic is the same aeronautical fees compared to the leisure traffic for us. And in terms of retail performance, we don't see a significant gap between these elements. So for us, it's not a key question. What we can see when we have the different elements from the airlines is the fact that In the business class, we can see more leisure than previously, but all in all, it's not a question for us. In terms of China, so traffic with China continues to develop gradually in line with our expectation. Weekly frequencies increase at the end of November with currently 46 weekly traffic. As I mentioned in the presentation, in the month of December, we reached 54% of 2019. For 2024, we have the same dynamic with recovery increasing slightly at 56% level at the beginning of the year, but we will still not expect full recovery in 2024, notably because we have constraints on demand. The first constraint is the hotel pricing and the travel package for the Chinese people with a massive inflation that is not very good for us in Paris. And the second constraint and domain is the macroeconomic environment in China that we have also an adverse factor to consider. So all in all, we have a gradual recovery in 2024. We don't expect a full recovery of Chinese traffic in this year. The second question of the lower the lower estimation in term of long-term traffic. For us, that is very important. It's not just the level of traffic, but it's also the mixed traffic. We know that we expect more international flight and less domestic flight. We can see in the figures in 2024, it's a key point to create value. So in terms of dynamic, when we have an improvement in terms of mixed traffic and less dynamic of traffic, at the end of the day, it's good for our CAPEX program. But to be clear in this context, It's just a globally first assumption that it's not a guidance, first of all, and it's consistent with the European and French commitment in terms of decarbonization. That is the key point. I don't know if for the other airports we have a perfect link between the assumption of airport and the commitment of the European authorities. Why we have this element? Because at the end of the day, we know that the integration of the sustainable aviation fuel could have a strong impact in the level of price and at the end of the day, in the growth in terms of traffic for all the industries. we take account this element and it's a key element for us and it's not a specific element of Parisian airport. It's an element for all the airports. But in our expectation, we take this element in. I don't know if it's the case for our competitors. So for us, the main point is to give you the main information at the right moment. For your third question, so the project of the new airport in Delhi is for the early of 2025 in term of opening. So not for the moment, but at the end of the day, it's... It's a good thing for us because it's a far airport compared to the downtown of Delhi, first of all. And the second point is that we have enough room of manoeuvre to have two main airports in Delhi without a huge impact for our current airport. We have a huge population in India and also in Delhi. And at the end of the day, with this new airport, it's a good way to manage and to control our CapEx needs in Delhi. So in terms of financial view, globally, It's a good thing because we can manage our capex for the next period and we can also transform the Delhi airport into an international airport with a strong connection passenger, but it's not currently the case, but it's possible the case with the improvement of Air India after the acquisition of Tata. So globally, our airports have a good dynamic in terms of traffic, probably good control in terms of capex with the new airports. And finally, we can improve strongly our mixed traffic with the internalization of the destination. So thank you for these three questions.

Great. Thank you very much. Thanks.

Thank you. We will take the next question from Marco from J.B. Morgan. The line is open now.

Please go ahead. Hi, it's Elodie Rall. So thanks for taking my question. So first of all, could you please give us your expectations on OPEC, namely labor costs, what you expect for next year, for this year, and energy costs? If you could also remind us where you are in terms of hedges, in particular given electricity costs are falling at the moment. Should you benefit from some of them? And second, would you be able to give us a bit more granularity about your international ambitions in terms of acquisitions, what you're looking at at the moment, where it is in that time in Asia? So if you could give us a little bit of color and if you're looking at buying a listed airport or not listed. Thanks very much.

So for your first question, Elodie, thank you. The expectation in terms of OPEX and specifically in terms of energy cost. So as you know, we have an exceptional performance in 2023 due to the aging. due to also the specific operation to sell a part of our rights. That is very good. For 2024, obviously we expect an increase in terms of energy cost due to the fact that we lose a part of the edge. We have three elements in our energy cost. The first element is that we develop the the PPA with solar farm and for that we can manage part of our needs. The second point is that we just now cover for 24 and 25 part of our energy needs through specific tools. And finally, we have AREN. that we can need and recover with this free pillar all our energy caps. But at the end of the day, in terms of compared to 2023, we have 30 million euros additional cost in 2024, so we double our cost between 23 and 24. For the other items, the main part of our cost is the staff cost. For that, we try to balance our needs to operate and to improve the quality of service in Paris, but also in Thierry. And for that, we just conclude the process of annual negotiation with employee representative in EDP Mother Company. We negotiate and we have a formal approval of all our unions to increase the salary of 2.6% for the executive function. and 1.5% for the... No, excuse me, 2.6% for all the employees and 1.5% for the executive function. With this increase, we have also the mechanic increase linked by our rules in EDP, that is 2.5. So all in all, we have an increase in our... our staff cost for around between 5% and 6%. It's in line with our guidance for EBITDA growth above 4% in 2024 and above 7% in 2025. Remember that in our staff cost you have also TAV and for TAV we have a huge increase in terms of number of people but also increase in wages due to the inflation context in Turkey. When you see our account for the last year, 2023, we can see that the main part of the staff cost is linked by TAV approach. Your second question about internal synchronization, Edward?

Good morning everyone. So about the growth in international ambitions, as you know we continue to look to develop into a geographical radar with the platform strategy, an area where the growth is important and higher than in Europe. TAV main project today is in Montenegro, but TAV has to deliver the other project, so it's mainly focused on delivering what is ongoing and a lot of new development ones. For our colleague of GMR, the main project is Manilla project, and as you know, the award is expected in the coming hours or days. And ADP parent company continues to look at some projects, but it is a little bit too early to speak about.

Okay. Thanks very much.

Thank you. We will take the next question from Satish Sivakumar from Citi. The line is open now. Please go ahead.

Yeah, thanks. I've got two questions here. So, firstly, on the retail spend, obviously, yes, in connecting passengers, percentage dropped by a couple of points there. How does the spend vary between, say, the departing passenger versus the connecting passenger? What does the delta normally look like? And the second one is around the mainland France traffic recovery. Is it around 75%? Obviously, some of them are structurally impaired. And with Air France trying to reorganize Paris-Orly base with Transavia, how should we think about the capacity that is being reallocated to some other destination? So those slots, how are you trying to reallocate them? Yeah, thank you.

So thank you for your question. For the first question about the retail advanced PPE, when you compare departing passenger and connecting passenger, we don't see any difference. It's a key point for the self-tax. It's not the passenger, economic passenger, business passenger, or connecting passenger. It's just the destination. So when you have an international destination, it's more attractive than a domestic destination. When we go to Africa, to America, or to China, it's better than when you go in other international destinations, for example. So, in fact, it's a key point for us to change our mixed traffic, and it's a key element to answer for your second question about the mainland France recovery. For us, it's good news that we don't have a full recovery of domestic traffic. It's a good news for the planet, but it's also a good news for financial terms. But at the end of the day, we can switch our traffic and to implement more international flight. It's the case in Orly. When Air France tried to... implement all East traffic in Paris Charles de Gaulle and give all the slots to Transavia. We don't have the same mixed traffic. Transavia, it's not just domestic airlines. It's also European airlines, but it's also a leisure airline for North Africa. So at the end of the day, for the same number of planes, for the same number of passengers, or a slight number of passengers in the long-term period, we can have a better financial trajectory due to a better aeronautical fees and a better retail SPP. Thank you for your question.

Thank you.

Thank you. We will take the next question from Nicholas Mora from Morgan Stanley. The line is open now. Please go ahead.

Good morning, gentlemen. Quite a few follow-ups. First on retail, what gives you the confidence to increase the guidance early in the year? I mean, you've talked about China recovery is stuttering. You've got still the renovation works that – in the whole K. Nobody's quite sure what the Olympics will give in terms of pattern of traffic and spending. I'm curious to see where you see the big upside from here. That's number one. Number two, on the Olicatex, rightly so, you're putting future traffic growth at around 1%. Does it mean you're just not going to build any new capacity? I mean, with a bit of digitalization, you can make do with the capacity you have, so that would imply a much lower capex trend from the back end of the 2020s and early 2030s. And can that be extrapolated as well to Charles de Gaulle? And then third one, on international, I struggle a little bit with the numbers you reported. You've got for the year 422 million ABDA in international and airport development. TAV and AMAN make up 465 million ABDA. So where do you lose 42, 43 million? There is a juice overhead. Are you still losing money in ADP engineering? I'm just wondering where the leftover is going. Last point on costs. You're talking a lot about cost management, but what are you doing? I mean, what have you done in 23? What do you expect in 24? I mean, the only thing we're hearing about is cost increases in wages, step-up in electricity costs. I mean, concretely, what are you doing to contain the cost rising?

So thank you, Nicolas, for your question. So first question about the guidance of retail. When you see our new guidance, we can see that it's a guidance for 25 compared to 23. We don't have a specific guidance in 24. It means that we expect an increase in terms of guidance, but not a progressive increase, a nomothetic increase in 24 and 25. It means that we can confirm that we expect the dilutive impact of the reopen of Terminal 2E and 2C, the slight impact that we don't know exactly the level of the works in Terminal 2E, all came. And globally, we can see also that we have to manage the recovery of mixed traffic linked by the Chinese people. So we are globally in line in terms of retail, and now we can give you more color about the fact that we know exactly, not exactly, but we can have some assumption about the dilutive impact in terms of reopening for Terminal 2E and 2C, and we can have more color about the temporary shops in Terminal 2E and 2C, and the dynamic of traffic through the increase of NIC traffic and the good offering in our world. That is the main reason that now we can disclose this guidance. But we have to achieve now in term of CAPEX. So to be clear, in fact, We disclose now a trend that is not an assumption, that is not a guidance, but trend in terms of traffic dynamic between 1 and 1.5% in Paris. So, effectively, we don't expect the same dynamic in terms of traffic compared to the pre-COVID situation. That is the first point. The second point that we have with this lower traffic trend, probably less need in terms of capacity. That is a key point. But we can see a change in terms of CAPEX program through the need in terms of decarbonization. and a new way to manage the airport. For that, we don't need a huge terminal like Terminal 4, but we need some new infrastructure, more connected, for example, with the railway station. So we need to extend the current airport. But it's not... that is difficult to operate, difficult to implement, and that is probably more expensive in terms of CAPEX program compared to a Greenfield project or a new terminal in the Pampa. So globally we can expect more CAPEX in 2026 and the year after. So it's not a limited CAPEX program. It's a higher CAPEX program with lower traffic but with better mid-traffic. I cannot give you more color now, but we can expect that. In terms of international, we don't disclose our international, in detail, performance. In fact, you're right, but the question is not the key point for TAV, but also for Jordan Airport. We have also over small elements, small airports that is not very, not a good situation. For the management of cost, so for management of cost, as an infrastructure company, a large part of our fixed cost is linked by the number of square meters, so the opening of terminals and not really of the volume of traffic. So we have an increase with the reopening of Terminal 1. In this year, we have also an increase due to the reopening of Terminal 2A and 2C. But after that, we don't need a new infrastructure So mechanically we have like an improvement in our EBITDA due to the fact that we can improve more traffic without new square meter that is a key point to manage our OPEX level. The second point is a question of the level of staff, staff cost. We need staff in terms of number of people to improve the quality, to reopen the infrastructure, to assume the future development of the company. But at the end of the day, we know that in 2025, 2026, probably we have just the increase in terms of wages, but not a strong increase in terms of number of people. And in terms of wages, we know that we can have a strong discussion with the unions, and we make the proof this year that it's possible to have an annual negotiation with all the unions to find a good agreement. So globally, in terms of expenses, for us,

If I may, just two follow-ups. First, on China, what do you expect in 2024? Do you expect a plateauing of the recovery where we are around 55% of capacity throughout the year? That would be the first follow-up. And second, too, on regulation, we've been talking about the WACC for a long time. We're talking about the cost allocation for a long time. Not much seems to be progressing. What's the stance with the regulator? Why are things taking so long? So we could say in France versus what we see elsewhere. And are we any closer to a multi-year regulatory agreement? Or is it still only 2027, 28, 29, whatever? Thank you.

So in terms of Chinese traffic, we continue to see a gradual improvement in terms of traffic. We wait for the summer season, so in April, a new step in terms of recovery to reach 65% compared to 50-55% now. And after that, we can see that we can assume a slight recovery, but a recovery for the end of this year. But not a full recovery, probably not in 24, perhaps in 25, but more in 26. So now it's a cautious approach, but it's very important for us to manage in a good position expectation. In terms of WACC and cost allocation system, so in fact, remember that the only decision of the French regulator is the homologation of tariff. So we don't have a decision of level of WACC. We don't have a decision of cost allocation system. We don't have a decision of cost allocation system because the rules is to negotiate with the airlines and to respect guidelines in terms of process with the airlines. And we have three years to do that. So we have a temporary period for 2024 and 2025. So we don't expect the final decision of the regulator before the end of 2025 and the homologation of the tariff of 2026. But we manage and we change our cost allocation system this year. We have some elements that we can see in the decision of the French regulator. We have also a challenge of the French regulator about the cost allocation system, but we have time to manage that. We don't have an estimation of the WACC for the French regulator, but we don't have a decision of the French regulator due to the fact that the only decision that we can expect is a yes or not for the tariff. Now, due to our trajectory in terms of regulated Roche, it's difficult to have a final point of view of the regulated WACC by the French regulator. I know that it's not so evident to follow, included for us, due to the rules of the French Regulator, but for the moment it's manageable. For the Economic Regulation Agreement, it's a usual question, so remember that we need two years to negotiate an Economic Regulation Agreement, and to negotiate an Economic Regulation Agreement we have to stabilise the rules of the game. And the rules, it's the level of regulatory work, it's the cost allocation system, it's also the trajectory, it's also the capacity to manage our regulated OPECs and the final point, it's to manage the environmental authorisation in Paris. An economic regulation agreement, it's a commitment in terms of capex. So it's difficult to have a commitment for billions of euros capex if we don't have a clear view about the fact that we can build or not a new terminal. It's the reason why in our financial communication we have a specific slide about the consultation for the new master plan of Orly and CDG. Through this consultation, with the dynamic of this consultation, we can have more color about the CAPEX plan for the next few years, and perhaps to stabilize one of the key elements of the Economic Regulation Agreement.

And on that one, you made a lot of progress at Orly. Is there progress as well at Charles de Gaulle, or it's a more complex subject on the CAPEX?

No, we have an internal clear view about CDG and RLE. It's a huge capex in both situations due to the fact that you have a lot of projects for the master plan that is not so evident to build. It's an expansion of the current terminal. But we have to manage the political environment before to launch a huge concertation. So we start by early and after we go to the open for CBG.

Thank you very much.

Sure, thank you. Yeah, I think...

I think we will need to close the presentation now as time has been passing through. And I know that everyone here is very busy with all the presentation after a recent release. So thank you, everyone, for having come to our conference today. So next quarterly publication will be on April 26th. with the first quarter revenue, and in the meantime, we are here to answer your questions, so feel free to get in touch with us. Thank you very much. Enjoy the rest of the day. Bye.

Thank you for joining today's call. You may now disconnect.