2/19/2026

speaker
Conference Operator
Operator

Welcome to Group ADP 2025 Full Year Results Presentation. For the first part of the conference call, the participants will be in listen-only mode. During the questions and answers session, participants are able to ask questions by dialing pound key 5 on their telephone keypad. Now I will hand the conference over to Cecil Combo, Head of Investor Relations, to begin today's conference. Please go ahead.

speaker
Cecil Combo
Head of Investor Relations

Thank you and good morning everyone. Thank you for joining us for our 2025 full year results presentation. I am here with Philippe Pascal, our Chairman and CEO, and Christelle de Robillard, Executive VP for Finance, Strategy and Development, who will first both go through prepared remarks for about 20 minutes before the Q&A session for which we will aim for 40 minute duration. Before we start, and as usual, I remind you that certain information to be discussed today during this call is forward-looking and is subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual revenue and results to differ materially. For these, I refer you to the disclaimer statement included in our press release and on slide 46 of our presentation. I will now leave the floor to our Chairman and CEO, Philippe Pascal.

speaker
Philippe Pascal
Chairman and CEO

Thank you, Cecile, and good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for joining us to discuss our 2025 full-year results. Let me first turn to slide 3 for our key highlights. 2025 has been a strong year for the Group and a key step in preparing our next strategic cycle. When I took office as chairman and CEO a year ago, I set clear priorities. Reinforcing our economic model in Paris through an economic regulation contract, deliver the best possible quality of service and accelerate the rollout of the X-Time model, secure the contribution of our international activities, and support all this with more agile and engaged corporate culture. With the new management team, we made solid progress on each of these priorities. We launched a very successful employee shareholder plan and modernized our composition structure at EDPSA level. We improved quality of service day after day, started the Connect France partnership with Air France in June, and announce the renaming of Paris Charles de Gaulle's infrastructure by 2027. We deliver key projects, our international asset and resume dividend payment from TAV. And of course, we submit our proposal for eight years economic relations agreement, now awaiting the regulator's first opinion. These achievements are combined with a strong operating performance in 2025, with all of our financial targets met, allowing the Board to propose a dividend of €3 per share to the next General Meeting after our dividend police. About our financial performance on slide 4. Revenue reached €6.7 billion, up nearly 9%. This reflects strong traffic during the years, and the continued development of our service businesses included the scoped effect from the acquisition of PS and Paris Experience Group at the end of 2024. EBITDA also showed solid growth, up 12%. This performance comes from higher revenue and from discipline cost execution leading to further margin expansion. Finally, net reserve came at 382 million euros. It was affected by FX non-cash item and tax impact in 2025, but remains 12% compared with 2024. Let me now move to slide five about our employee-related achievements, which are key drivers of long-term value creation. Our employee shareholding operation was a clear success, with three out of four employees subscribing. Employee ownership now represents almost 2% of the company's capital, showing strong internal alignment and confidence in the group's trajectory. It also creates collective incentives by sharing future value creation. Just a few weeks ago, we also reached an agreement with trade unions to modernize our composition framework and employee status. The goal is to build a more consistent, financially sustainable, and performance-driven model. The impact of this reform is already reflected in our 2026 outlook. This measure will support our long-term cost trajectory, the same that was underlying our Cost Discipline Economic Reduction Agreement proposal. A quick word now on slide 6 about the simplification and renaming plan for Paris-Chaldeau-Goulerport announced at the end of 2025. Our objective is simple, make the passenger journey clearer and smoother, especially for connecting travelers. In March 2027, when the CDG Express high speed link opens, all terminals will adapt to a single numbering system and boarding area will be renamed using specific letters. This will bring Paris back in line with the best standards of major international hubs. This renaming is a visible step, but it is only one of the many projects we will continue to roll out to reinforce the attractiveness of Paris Hub and the will of initiatives such as the ones included in our Connect France partnership with Air France. On slide 7 now. Still, on the performance of our Paris assets, we continue to support it with several infrastructure projects delivered in 2025. First, the refurbishment of runway 1 at Paris-Charles de Gaulle, which now meets best-in-class industry standards. Second, the commissioning of our geothermal plant for Paris-Charles de Gaulle airport, a key milestone in our decarbonization roadmap. Third, the restructuring and extension air side area at Paris-Orly, unlocking additional aircraft capacity and improving operational fluidity. And finally, the upgrade of baggage landing system in terminal 2E and 2C at Charles de Gaulle, enhancing regulability. This project illustrates our ongoing efforts to maintain the high-performing and resilient Paris hub. Finally, let me turn to slide 8 and highlight the key achievements in our international asset. We delivered several major infrastructure projects in 2025, including the expansion of Antalya Airport in Turkey and the expansion of Delhi Airport in India. Both platforms are now ready to support further traffic growth and to capture more retail potential thanks to new commercial areas. Both Antalya and GMI Airport secure refinancing operations. At the same time, TAV Airport successfully negotiated a five-year concession expansion for BBC Airport, which is a highly contributive asset. And on the back of solid performance and deliveraging, TAV announced it will resume dividends payments this year, 3.61 Turkish Lira per share, or roughly 10 million euros for EDPSA to be paid in 2026. Overall, 2025 has been a year of strong execution and reinforce our foundation for the next strategic cycle. I will now hand over to Christelle. We will take you through the 2025 financial performance in detail.

speaker
Christelle de Robillard
Executive VP for Finance, Strategy and Development

Thank you Philippe and good morning everyone. Let's jump to slide 10 and dive into our 2025 results. In 2025, we delivered continued solid traffic growth overall with different trends across our platforms. In Paris, traffic grew by 3.4%, fully in line with our annual assumptions. Growth was driven by international passengers, while domestic traffic continued to decline. Looking at the group, TAV Airport delivered a solid 6% traffic increase, supported by its international assets. GMR Airport showed 3% growth, reflecting a resilient underlying profile, despite some challenges during the year. AIG, specifically Amman Airport, recorded 11% growth, even in a tense geographical context. Overall, these trends confirm the strength of our portfolio and the resilience of our geographically diversified model. Now, turning to retail trends on slide 11. Ex-time standard packs stand at €31.7 in 2025, up 3.6% compared to 2023, but down 1.2% compared to 2024. After an outstanding first quarter, we saw a downturn in Q2 driven by several factors. First, a number of ADP-specific elements, which were largely anticipated. Works in Terminal 2EK, the full year impact of the reopening of Terminal 2AC, and the reallocation of some airlines there. but also a negative comparison base compared to 2024 due to lower advertising and the end of Olympic merchandise sales. In addition to these internal factors, broader external trends also weighed on performance. First, the slowdown in the luxury sector, but also significantly less attractive FX conditions since Q2 with stronger Euro while pricing strategy from luxury brands do not compensate for this effect. Despite this headwind, we remain confident in the strength of X-Time model. Underlying trends in most activities continue to support our long-term strategy. Moving to slide 12 about consolidated revenues. As said earlier, it reached 6.7 billion euros, up 9% this year, reflecting the solid momentum across all our main segments. In aviation, the revenue increase was primarily driven by the continued growth in international flows, as well as the 4.5% airport fees increase implemented in 2025. In retail and services, despite the headwinds I just explained, contribution to revenue growth was strong, benefiting from the international traffic growth and positive SCAP effects from recent acquisitions, which serve the development of our model. Abroad, TAV Airports international assets and services companies were the biggest drivers, while growth in Turkey was more moderate due to macroeconomics. AIG showed a remarkable rebound, showing resilience despite its geopolitical context. Moving to slide 13 to focus on our EBITDA. For 2025, EBITDA is up more than 12% driven by revenue growth and good cost control. Excluding the integration of PAS and PEG, EBITDA is up 11.3% above our EBITDA guidance of at least 7%. This strong performance reflects several factors. Tight cost discipline in itself at ADP-ASA and retail subsidiaries, as well as at CIV. Parisian infrastructure is now fully open, which provides some operational leverage. We also benefited from positive base effects linked to Olympics-related expenses, which disappeared in 2025, and also the postponement of exit entry system deployment to late 2025 and with a progressive rollout. 2026 OPEX are expected to increase due to this EES deployment. Slide 14 now, to look at our net income, standing at €382 million, up €40 million. This figure reflects stronger DDA growth, as well as the base effect from the 2024 accounting impact linked to the GIL and GAL merger. However, they are largely offset by other effects worth reminding. In DNA, the negative base effect from last year's impairment reversal at AIG, In taxes, the exceptional tax surplus on large corporations in France for 92 million euros. And as was the case in H1, all through the P&L, we recorded impact from the abnormal variations in ethics rates in 2025, affecting notably the contribution of TAV and GMR airports for a total net loss of 130 million euros at the net income level. Overall, this all resulted in a net income attributable to the Group of €382 million. The cash position of the Group is nevertheless solid as, apart from the tax impact, these negative impacts are mainly non-cash ones. So, turning to the Group debt, on slide 15, you can see net debt stood at €8.6 billion at the end of 2025. Net debt to EBITDA ratio is improving to 3.7 times EBITDA in line with our 2025 target of 3.5 to 4 times EBITDA. This deleveraging has been driven by the strong EBITDA growth as well as the disciplined CAPEX execution both in Paris and at group levels. Moving to slide 16 to conclude this financial part, I will focus on the regulated activities. As you can see on the left part, regulated roadshed for 2025 stands at 4.3%, up 0.3 points compared to 2024. The strong growth from traffic and increase in airport charges was notably offset by the higher tax rate applicable in France for 2025. Let's look now at the right side of the slide, which summarizes the situation regarding 2026 tariffs. Our initial proposal, which included a 1.5% increase, was rejected in December mainly due to divergences on analytical accounting rules used to allocate costs and assets to the regulated perimeter. We then submitted a second proposal with flat tariffs on average. This proposal was also rejected on February 10, which means that airport charges will remain at 2025 levels from April 1st, 2026. This is already reflected in our 2026 financial guidance, which Philippe will comment in just a moment. Now, importantly, the regulator explicitly stated in their decision that the ERA is the right framework to address structural topics such as allocation keys and that our envisage timing remains valid. Our priority is to work through the regulatory process constructively while protecting the interest of the company and its shareholders. With that, I will now hand it back to Philippe who will now comment on our outlook and our strategic priorities.

speaker
Philippe Pascal
Chairman and CEO

Thank you Christelle. Let's now turn to the financial outlook for 2026. Our 2026 guidance is built with discipline with three factors explaining the calibrated EBITDA outlook. Flat regulated tariff in Paris, higher than usual staff cost increase linked to the reform in the wages structure at the EDP SAE level, retail revenue dynamic in a still challenging context and continuing works in terminal 2EOK. All in all, We expect EBITDA growth to be driven by international assets, TAV in particular, to reach above 2.35 billion euros EBITDA at group level. We will continue to invest to prepare the future around 1.45 billion euros at group level, on which around 1 billion at EDPSA, with a gradual increase compared to actual 2025 CAPEX. in line with the program set out in our proposed Economic Regulation Agreement. Our dividend policy remains unchanged, 60% payout with a floor of €3 per share. Our proposed Economic Regulation Agreement for 2034 will be negotiated over the course of 2026. Slide 20 shows the key parameters of our proposal. which are designed to secure a fair remuneration on the investments included in our plan. Slide 20 shows the timeline for the elaboration of this new economic regulation agreement. I want to highlight that despite the non-validation of the 2026 tariff, the process is fully on track. We are fully committed to deliver a good agreement ensuring fair remuneration of investment. We have the support of airlines. We can see on the slide that we started the year with a positive consultative vote from airlines, both on the duration and on the industrial plan, which confirm the quality of our proposal and their support. We also have the support of the French state, which asked the regulator to issue a non-binding opinion on our proposal, which is then expected by April 11. We anticipate that the Regulator will make some negative comments on the allocation key because the analytical accounting keys underlying our proposal are similar to those used for the 2026 rejected tariff. We work through the process constructively and the Economic Regulation Agreement is the appropriate framework to address such structural topics. During the rest of 2026, we will continue negotiations with the State and hold a second round of user consultation in September. The objective remains unchanged to obtain the binding approval of the ERT and Q4 2026 followed by the signature of the Economic Regulation Agreement, so that it comes into force on January 1, 2027. Overall, the timeline is progressing as planned, with no deviation versus the schedule we share in December. Moving to slide 21. which illustrates how 2026 will be a year dedicated to preparing our next strategy plan for 2027 and 2030. We will focus on four main pillars. First, economic regulation elaboration with the negotiation of the new economic regulation agreement Its signature will bring clarity and long-term visibility on the financial trajectory of our regulated activities. Second, cultural transformation, continuing to build a more agile and performance-driven organization, while strengthening the employee engagement. Third, corporate social responsibility, ensuring our roadmap stays aligned with long-term environmental and climate ambition, and accelerating our commitments. And fourth, a portfolio review, focusing on non-regulated activities to refine our strategic priority and management focus, and to optimize our portfolio for long-term value creation. Together, with four pillars, we'll shape the foundation of the group's next strategy ambition. Let's open the line for Q&A. Thank you.

speaker
Conference Operator
Operator

If you wish to ask a question, please dial pound key five on your telephone keypad to enter the queue. Two questions at a time should allow all of you to dialogue with the management. The next question comes from Christian Ndelsu from UBS. Please go ahead.

speaker
Christian Ndelsu
Analyst, UBS

Hi, thank you very much for taking my questions. The first one, on this allocation of costs between regulated and non-regulated. Arete concluded that there's a differential of 50 to 100 basis points on your returns due to the different views on cost allocation. Could you give us a bit more details? What are the arguments on your side that you believe the way you approach cost allocation is the correct one? Do you see reasonable chances to convince them to drop this claim going forward? And secondly, considering the more conservative view from RET in terms of your actual regulator returns, at least from my side, it seems that CAPEX and a multi-year regulatory framework are the only things that could avoid cutting your tariffs in 2027. So in this sense, what is the minimum level of WAC that you're willing to accept? in order to deploy this CAPEX plan that you presented for ERA going forward? Thank you.

speaker
Philippe Pascal
Chairman and CEO

So thank you for your question. So perhaps just to give you about the debate with the regulator. There are two main areas of misalignment in the view of the regulators, the WACC and the allocation key, as you say. Perhaps to start on the regulated WAC. Main takeaway from last week's decision is that the regulator clearly stated that the WAC would be higher in case of multi-year agreements. and we will have more insight when this issue their non-binding opinion on the economic regulation proposal which is expected in by april so we it's not possible to give you a minimum of whack the key element is to have a global balance and a fair remuneration at the end of the day for our economic regulation agreement but also if we don't have an economic regulation agreement We are very confident that the economic regulation agreement is a good vehicle to find a fair remuneration for us, due to the fact that the head of IRT said clearly that we can discuss about that through this process. And the fact that in the methodology of the French regulator, we can have a higher WACC when we have a multi-year agreement. So in line with this element, we are convinced that in the process we can find a good balance. On allocation key. In fact, the regulator estimates that we should implement analytical counting correction that could increase the regulated roadshed by around 0.5 to 1 point. Among the pushback for the regulator on allocation key, the most material are the space allocation key to allocate costs between scope regulated to share space in our terminal. in the boarding area, near the shops, and so on. The key related to access to allocate the cost related are airport shuttle system. Airport shuttle is a key element also. We will resume discussion with airline and work through the regulatory process constructively while protecting the interest of the company and its shareholders. That is very important for us and very clear. It's the fact that the French state, the decision of the government is to have a dual-deal system with a regulated scope and a non-regulated scope. So we can obviously discuss about the cost allocation key if we respect this dual-deal system. So we have, obviously, we have to find the good rules and the good key. We have to work with the airlines. We have to work with the French regulator. And this work is on track with both airlines and regulators. But at the end of the day, we have to respect the dual-kill system. And I know that for the French state, it's vital because it's at the end of the French state, not at the end of the regulators. So globally, to answer your question, in fact, we have this key question of work and of allocation key. But we are very confident that the economic regulation agreement and the process to elaborate this agreement, it's a good process to success. And we are confident to do that. It's the reason why we are not so worried about the decision of 2026 TAIF. Thank you very much. Thank you for your question.

speaker
Conference Operator
Operator

The next question comes from Tobias Fromm from Bernstein. Please go ahead.

speaker
Tobias Fromm
Analyst, Bernstein

Good morning. Thank you for taking my question. I'm trying to understand your traffic growth guidance in a little bit more detail. On Site 7, you elaborate on the 2026 investment projects. What's the estimated impact of those projects on traffic growth, especially looking at sort of the runway renovation at CDG and capacity extension at OLLI? If you would sort of not have to implement those projects, those projects, would the guidance be very similar? Can you effectively shift the impact a little bit by having more aircraft flying into CTG, for instance? And then on retail, when I look specifically at the different quarters, the performance of the businesses in the different quarters, I see that duty-free has obviously gotten a lot worse over the quarters. above 8%, Q1, Q2, flat in Q3, and then minus 2 in Q4. Is that the trajectory we should keep in mind for 2026 as well? And have you maybe seen anything on duty-free in the first two months, first one and a half months of 2026? And that's it. Thank you.

speaker
Christelle de Robillard
Executive VP for Finance, Strategy and Development

Thank you for your question. So regarding the first one in terms of traffic, so have you seen with the guidance of traffic expected growth between 1.5% to 2.5% in Paris, mostly driven by international, just to remind you that it's totally in line with the assumption taken in the economic regulation agreement and there have been no change since then. So globally we expect in 2026 to see similar trends as in 2025 continued dynamic growth of international traffic with Middle East and Asia notably as other destinations have already more than recovered but also a steady and lower growth for the Schengen area traffic where traffic is now mature and above 2019 levels And finally, French domestic traffic remains structurally lower. Regarding your specific question between CDG and Orly, indeed the traffic in 2026 will be affected by temporary airside works at Orly that will constrain operations from April to December 2026. There will be, to be very precise, two work phases, impact operation, April to early August, works on some taxiway, and from mid-August to early December, works on the runway itself. Some airlines can have chosen to proactively adjust their programs, reducing flights, transferring some activity to CDG, and to reshape schedules. Some indeed chose to front load reduction early in the season to smooth operational adjustment. But crucially, what you have to have in mind is that airlines will keep their early slots, and so these are just tactical, not structural. All these elements of traffic are fully embedded in our 2026 traffic assumption. Regarding your second question in terms of retail performance, indeed the performance was quite different quarter by quarter. There was more of an outstanding performance in Q1 and then a gradual decrease. Clearly, that began when the Euro appreciated a lot. As you understand, our performance has been impacted by all those FX tailwinds. Regarding 2026, our assumption is a broadly stable FX rate with no reversal of the 2025 currency impact. There was also this trend regarding the slowdown on luxury categories, which have also affected once again due to this sensitive FX competitiveness. So this is something on which we will pay attention for sure, but our assumption takes into account, as I said, broadly stable You saw that we posted an hypothesis above 32 euros in 2026. We have some leverage to drive this SPP up in 2026, and the extreme model strength, the traffic mix improvement, so all this should contribute to stabilizing our retail performance.

speaker
Conference Operator
Operator

As a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please dial pound key 5 on your telephone keypad. The next question comes from Dario Maglioni from BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.

speaker
Dario Maglioni
Analyst, BNP Paribas

Hi, morning, and thanks for the presentation. Two questions around the long-term regulatory agreement. I'm quite intrigued. You mentioned that you have support by the airlines for this agreement. Can you elaborate? And then second question, on this OPEX allocation and projection on regulated revenue, To what extent do you try to find a compromise with ART or actually try to bring on board what ART said and just implement it? Thanks.

speaker
Philippe Pascal
Chairman and CEO

Thank you for your first question about the support of airline. the negotiation of an economic regulation agreement. The starting point is the publication of the proposal in December, and the first step is a dedicated vote in a specific committee that all the main airlines and representative organizations of airlines. So we execute this first step at the end of January, And in two elements, the first element, it's a specific vote for duration, and we obtain the full support of the main part of the airlines. And the second vote, it's about the proposal. That is clear. It's the fact that you have a favorable vote, positive vote, due to the fact that all the airlines and in particular the main airlines in Paris, support the industrial plan. The fact that we can develop and we have to develop the platform in Paris, but mainly in Paris Charles de Gaulle, we have to develop the hub of SkyTeam. And we manage well this process because it's the industrial process, it's the result of strong discussion with airlines and also the consultation of our main stakeholders during the consultation in 2025. So our proposal is the result of the first informal consultation and negotiation with the airlines. But the good success is the fact that officially when you consult the airlines, all the airlines adopt this project with a favorable vote. It's a good thing to try to convince the French regulator that it's a good economic regulation agreement and well balanced. That is for your second question about the allocation key. The IRT request analytical accounting adjustment that we have just said, it's to increase the roadshed, the weekly roadshed. The main pushback related to space allocation key, as I said, is the number of square meters in the regulated and non-regulated scope. And also the key related to access. These topics require structural formalized work with airlines, which are resuming immediately. So we work a lot and the ERA is precisely the appropriate framework to solve this technical point. We have with the French Regulator, we have a discussion, regular discussion, technical discussion, professional discussion. The Regulator demonstrates a good understanding of airport infrastructure constraints. But we do not prejudge decision. But the tone is forward-looking and the ARTA confirms that the ERA is the right avenue to treat long-term topics. So for the moment we have a positive discussion. In fact, we are a little bit surprised about the decision in December. not in line with all the work that we execute with airlines and also with the regulators. So a little bit surprised that it's not the same tone before than after the decision, perhaps due to some claims about some airlines. But all in all, we have to continue the discussion. And remind that the question of cost allocation key, it's also the question of the dual-till system. So it's not just the regulator, but it's also the French state. And we are very confident about that because our industrial project is vital for the development of the airport sector in France. So we have the full support of the French state.

speaker
Dario Maglioni
Analyst, BNP Paribas

Thank you. Very clear. Thanks.

speaker
spk00

Thanks, Philippe.

speaker
Conference Operator
Operator

The next question comes from Jose Arroyas from Santander. Please go ahead.

speaker
Jose Arroyas
Analyst, Santander

Good morning, and thank you. I wanted to ask you about your plans to review the company's portfolio. I think this is also something you talked about in December, but what do you exactly mean by a strategic review of non-regulated assets? Are you looking to sell some of the assets you already own partially or fully, or are you looking to buy more of the assets you own? And if it is the latter, what type of businesses would you be considering adding? Thank you.

speaker
Christelle de Robillard
Executive VP for Finance, Strategy and Development

Thank you for your question. So indeed, we announced in mid-December last time that we were going to conduct a portfolio review. So this is, of course, still our expectation. So the 2026 portfolio review will cover all non-regulated activities with the aim of clarifying long-term value drivers and the strategic role of each asset. We assess indeed every asset based on long-term value creation, strategic relevance, and capital efficiency. At the end of the day, this review is not designed to trigger major disposal. Having said that, we apply a clear DC plan to cost allocation. We consider both disposal or acquisition only when they reinforce our long-term industrial and financial profile. So this is the way we will conduct this work. Thank you.

speaker
Conference Operator
Operator

As a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please dial pound key 5 on your telephone keypad. The next question comes from Christian Ndelsu from UBS. Please go ahead.

speaker
Christian Ndelsu
Analyst, UBS

Hi. Thank you very much for allowing me to follow up. Could I kindly ask on the OPEX side, you talked about the new compensation structure reform. Could you give a bit more detail on the actual wage increases in 26 and then the long-term savings associated with this new compensation structure? And maybe on this topic, could you talk for ADPSA, the other OPEX components, what type of inflationary pressure would you expect in 26 versus 25? And the second one, if I may, coming back to the allowed return, I think Arete proposed a 5.3, 5.4% walk for Toulouse and Marseille airports. And I know these are different assets with different considerations, but I'm just trying to take a step back. If at the end of the day, I believe today you're earning somewhere between 4.5% to 5.5% regulated return, you're not too far away from this 5.3%, 5.4% walk. So what I'm trying to think conceptually, in my eyes, from here to grow your tariff, effectively it's all underpinned by your regulated asset-based growth or by your CAPEX. Because if the work indeed ends up being 5.3, there doesn't seem to be a lot of tariff increase. So could you help us a bit? Am I missing something? Are you still confident in a healthy tariff increase above the inflation levels in France over the next years? And what are the arguments in that regard? Thank you.

speaker
Christelle de Robillard
Executive VP for Finance, Strategy and Development

Thank you. So I'll comment on your first question regarding the Staff Cost Reform. So as you understood during the presentation, this is a comprehensive renovation of ADPSR remuneration structure for both non-executive and executive and aims at making salary progression more predictable, more individualized, and structurally more sustainable. As mentioned, this reform will generate a significant impact in 2026 as we implement salary increases to compensate for the withdrawal of certain future benefits, especially the automaticity of salary increases. This will create a one-time larger step-up compared to our usual staff cost trajectory. In practical terms, the 2026 wage increase will be roughly twice the normal annual run rate, but clearly all this impact is fully included in our 2026 guidance for recurring EBITDA above 2.3 billion. Clearly, the aim of this reform is to rebalance the complex system structure and to make it more sustainable over the long-term period. It will also help secure the assumption we took in the economic regulation agreement of wage inflation at CPI plus 0.6 points. Regarding other OPEX evolution assumptions, so on your question about inflation, we are expecting some classical inflation hypothesis, so between I would say close to 1.5%, so no specific element on that. Maybe just keep in mind that our OPEX base will be impacted, you know, Unconsumable by the trends with our level of activity and sales and external services as I mentioned in my presentation by the deployment of exit entry system which was postponed in 2025 and on staff expenses by this wage reform. And maybe just a word to say that as you saw there was no significant move on the tax front.

speaker
Philippe Pascal
Chairman and CEO

So about the WACC, so that is clear for us. It's the fact that it's not possible to sign an economic regulation agreement if we don't have a fair remuneration. The fair remuneration, we have two aspects of the fair remuneration. It's a level of WACC, but it's also the fact that we have to assume the pure convergence between the regulated roadshed and the regulated WACC. So about the regulated WACC, in fact, we can compare the situation of EDP with the situation of the regional airport. It's, as you say, not really the same airport, the same risk. That is a key element. The specificity of EDP, the fact that we propose an economic regulation agreement for eight years with $8 billion. When you compare with Toulouse, it's not comparable because we have just a CAPEX plan for $130 million for five years. And we propose in EDP $8 billion for eight years. So globally, in terms of risk, we have a higher risk in EDP compared to the regional airport. And we are very optimistic for this real environmental economic view and the fact that in the methodology of the French regulator, we have in line the fact that we have to assume a part of risk. We are globally confident that the level of regulated work is higher in case of this multi-year agreement. Higher, so probably in the high part of the range, perhaps a little bit higher. We have to assume that. In terms of CAPEX program, for me, the question of the level of CAPEX is not in line with the level of WACC. We need a fair remuneration for low CAPEX program or high CAPEX program. It's the same thing. In fact, if we don't have an economic regulation agreement, mechanically, it's not possible to deliver an industrial project as we plan. But we are globally confident due to the fact that it's vital to launch this plan and to compete with our main competitors like Istanbul, ISFRO, Frapor, and so on.

speaker
Conference Operator
Operator

There are no more questions at this time, so I hand the conference back to the speakers for any closing comments. The next question comes from Nicolas Mora from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

speaker
Nicolas Mora
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Oops, sorry. Hi, guys. Just wanted to come back on the cost allocation and just the support of airlines. Obviously, they are on board on the industrial plan. I don't think anybody questions that. From the RIT documents, they're not really on board on the cost allocation. I mean, they're talking about north of $200 million of cost would like to be put into the unregulated perimeter. They would like a cut in RAB. So is there for you a point where you just walk away because you just basically can't fathom a three-digit number of costs being switched into the unregulated parameter? That's the first question. Then if we can come back on the results and just on the retail, just in 2025, can you explain a bit why the operating leverage is so good? The step up in ABDA is quite impressive versus the revenue rise. Just wanted to know if there were any special elements there or what you're doing to actually squeeze a little bit more from the revenue. And thinking about retail and 26, just a confirmation. So we're going to start the year with tough comps, still some FX headwinds, still some construction headwinds. So the year is pretty dramatically back-end loaded in terms of improvement in performance and spend per pax. And last one, sorry, on 26 guidance, can you help us understand what you've put for TAV in your 2,350,000,000 ABDA a minimum guidance are you at the midpoint are you at the low point the high point because that range is quite wise just trying to understand what you've got in there for for tab and and imply what you've got for paris airports thank you so thank you nicola so about your your first question and the the fact that we have to discuss with the airlines about the cost allocation

speaker
Philippe Pascal
Chairman and CEO

In fact, we have the support of the airline to execute the industrial project, but also to execute this project through an economic regulation agreement. It's support in principle, but we have to discuss about the details. And we have to discuss about the global economic balance. So it includes the cost allocation key. It includes also the level of work. It includes the level of CAPEX, of OPEX, and so on. But in principle, it's a result of the first discussion that is appreciated from the airline. In terms of cost allocation key, we discuss a lot with the airlines. We execute all the guidelines of the French regulator. and it's quite a surprise for us to have a negative decision of the French Regulator due to the fact that we take account for all the elements that the French Regulator wants to study. So, after that, in terms of cost allocation key, as I say, it's a global balance with all the other factors first, and the second point, Specifically for the allocation key, the question is perhaps to discuss about the key in terms of square meter for the regulated scope or not, but it's also the fact that we have some red line, and the red line is to assume the fact that the decision of the French state is the dual tilt system of EDP. So that is the red line. It's a red line for EDP but it's mainly a red line for the French state. For the other question, Christelle?

speaker
Christelle de Robillard
Executive VP for Finance, Strategy and Development

So regarding your second question in terms of retail performance, so indeed retail and services outperformed despite the SPP headwinds we just mentioned in our presentation. So this solid growth was attributable to two main elements. First, the solid cost discipline. This was the case at all the group level, as you can see, because we outperform on every segment. But this was particularly the case on the retail segment. We also had a cautious stock management and policy. So this is the first reason. And the second reason. is the Eckstein model, which clearly continues to drive higher margin categories such as beauty. Maybe just to mention one interesting figure, on beauty we made a plus 6% performance compared to a minus 2.6% on the national market. So it shows the robustness of our strategy and model. So this performance is partly structural, as you can understand. Xtime has clearly raised the operational and commercial productivity of our retail ecosystem despite the FX and luxury cycle headwinds that remain in the near term. More generally, once again, When you look at our 2025 financial performance, we were well above our guided at least plus 7% EBITDA, but with strong double-digit increase all across our segment, both in aviation, retail, and international. Maybe concerning your third question, the assumption we're taking in our EBITDA guidance for TAV. So the guidance we take at the group level above €2.3 billion is totally in line with the EBITDA guidance disclosed by TAV which is guiding for a range between 590 and 650 million euros EBITDA in 2026. That means a 30 to 90 million euros EBITDA growth. So this is the underlying assumption for TAV and bear in mind that the rest of the performance of the group will be impacted by flat regulated tariffs in Paris, by the higher than usual staff cost increase that I mentioned previously and this retail revenue dynamics in a still challenging context and the continuing works in terminal to EOLK. Thank you.

speaker
Conference Operator
Operator

There are no more questions at this time, so I hand the conference back to the speakers for any closing comments.

speaker
Cecil Combo
Head of Investor Relations

No more questions this time indeed, and so it's time to close today's call. Thank you everyone for having logged into this conference. The next planned quarterly publication will be on April 28th with the 2026 first quarter revenue. And in the meantime, of course, feel free to get in touch with Elliot or myself in the investor relations team for any follow-up questions. Enjoy the rest of the day. Thank you. Thank you for your participation.

speaker
Conference Operator
Operator

You may now disconnect.

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