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Asmpt Ltd

Q42025

3/4/2026

speaker
Ben Po
Head of Investor Relations

Ladies and gentlemen, I'm Ben Po, Head of Investor Relations, and today I will be moderating the call. On behalf of ASMPT Limited, welcome to our fourth quarter and full year 2025 investor conference call. Thank you all for your interest and continued support. Please note that all participants will be in listen-only mode during the presentation by the management. We will start the Q&A session after the presentation, During the Q&A session, priority will be given to the covering analysts. Before we start, let me go through our disclaimer. Please note that there may be forward-looking statements about the company's business and finances during this call. Such forward-looking statements could involve known and unknown uncertainties, risks, and could cause actual results, performance, and events to differ materially from those expressed or implied during this conference call. For your reference, the investor relations presentation on our recent results is available on our website. On today's call, we have the Group Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Robin Ng, and the Group Chief Financial Officer, Ms. KJ Hsu. Robin will cover the group's key highlights for the fourth quarter and full year 2025 and provide outlook and guidance for the following quarter. Katie will provide details on the financial performance for the year and quarter. Now, I will hand the time over to our Group Chief Executive Officer, Robin.

speaker
Robin Ng
Group Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Ben. Good morning, good afternoon and good evening, everyone. Thank you for joining us today for our fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings conference call. Before we begin, and as I'm sure you know by now, I recently announced my decision to step down from my role as Group Chief Executive Officer for personal reasons and to devote more time to my family. I will remain in my role until the successor is appointed to ensure a smooth and orderly transition. I'm proud of what we have achieved as a business during my time as CEO, and I'm grateful for your trust in me over the years. I'm confident that ASMPT has the right foundations and the people in place for its next phase of growth. Thank you once again for your continued support. Moving on, the group has decided to divest ASMPT next, which has been classified as a discontinued operation. Therefore, please note that unless specified, On today's call, we will refer to the group's continuing operations only. Now for the key highlights for 2025. We experienced strong performance in both our Semi and SMT businesses, supported by AI-driven structural growth. There was an increase in customer activity, translating into meaningful bookings and revenue for the group, evident in both advanced packaging and our mainstream portfolio. Group bookings grew 21.7% year-on-year, driven by both SMT and semi-businesses. And our full-year revenue increased 10% year-on-year, mainly from our flagship TCB solutions. Now let's look at TCB. TCB momentum strengthened further in 2025, with significant new orders across logic and memory, solidifying TCB technology leadership. We established deeper engagement with both logic and memory customers and saw encouraging traction in areas such as HBM and C2W ultra-fine-pitch applications. This continues to reinforce our position as a leading provider of advanced packaging solution as customers move to more complex chiplet-based and high-density architectures. Turning to our SMT segment, Bookings were better than expected, supported by AI servers, China's EV ecosystem, and increased requirements for data transmission for base stations. Last but not least, we also advanced several transformation initiatives from late 2025 to date. These are to enhance focus on our back-end packaging business, improve agility, and optimize our portfolio as part of a longer-term strategy. These actions will place us in a stronger position to scale capabilities in the areas where customer demand is more structurally aligned with our technology strengths. Overall, 2025 was a year where we executed well, deepened customer engagements, and continued building the foundation for sustained growth. I will elaborate further as we move through today's presentation. Let me now provide an update on the TCB total addressable market. This time last year, when we presented this slide, we expected the TAM to reach around US$1 billion by 2027. Since then, the landscape has evolved meaningfully. The acceleration of AI-driven investment, especially in advanced logic and high bandwidth memory, has expanded the market significantly more than our earlier assumptions. Based on our latest projections, we now estimate the TCP temp to grow from roughly US$759 million in 2025 to US$1.6 billion by 2028, representing a trigger of 30%. This reflects sustained adoption of 2.5D architectures, higher HBM stacks, and the industries move towards final pitch interconnects, all areas where TCP is increasingly the preferred solution. Our target market share remains at 35% to 40%. This is supported by the breadth of our deep engagements across leading logic and memory customers, and by the performance of our HBM C2S and C2W TCP platforms. including strong uptake of a plasma-enabled ultrafine pitch capabilities. We are well positioned to benefit from this expanded TCB10, and we are committed to continue investing in this exciting technology. Moving on to advanced packaging. This remains a strong growth engine for us in 2025, supported by rising complexity in both logic and memory packaging. As customers shift further towards chiplets higher-stack HBM and final pitch interconnects, we continue to see solid demand across our TCB platforms in particular. Of note, with our breakthrough into comparative HBM market, we also grew TCB market share significantly, achieving record TCB revenue growth about 146% year-on-year. In 2025, our AP revenue growth of 30.2% year-on-year was driven by TCB. As a result, AP's contribution to group revenue also increased from 26% in 2024 to 30% in 2025. Now, let's look at TCB more closely. In logic, our C2S solution maintains its dominant position as a process of record with a steady flow of orders from key OSEC customers in 2025. Extending into early 2026, we are pleased to share that we have secured additional orders for nine more TCB2s from the same customer. We are well positioned for further order wins as the market shifts towards larger compound lines. At the same time, our C2W ultra-fine-pitched platform Enhanced with plasma AOR technology secured orders for two tools in February, 2026 from a leading customer for C2W applications. Since the announcement, we have secured two more such TCB tools from the same customer. As the industry transitions from mass reflow technology to TCB, the group stands to benefit significantly as the preferred C2W solution provider, offering plasma-enabled capabilities. This engagement underscores the confidence customers place in their ability to support tighter technical specifications and next-generation packaging roadmaps. In memory, We deepen our engagement with several customers and continue to expand our share with shipments in 2025. Our tools have demonstrated superior performance with industry-leading production years and interconnect quality. We were also the first to secure HBM4-12 high orders from multiple players, and we are now leading HBM4-16 high development with our flux-based TCP2 deployed for sampling, and our fluxless AOR-TCB process under qualification. These are important milestones for technology leadership as HBM architectures scale further. Beyond TCB, we also made progress in hybrid bonding, where we receive customer buyouts and ship more tools. Our second generation hybrid bonding solution is highly competitive, offering high alignment precision, bonding accuracy, footprint efficiency, and units per hour. In photonics, revenue grew year on year, and we sustained our leading position in the 800G optical transceiver market, while continuing development work with industry partners on one point transceiver solutions. Our CPO collaboration also continued to move forward with key global players. And in SMT SIP applications, Demand remained robust, especially in AI-related RF and system-in-package applications. Our next-generation chip assembly tool also gained traction among advanced logic smartphone applications. Overall, advanced packaging delivered another year of meaningful progress with broader adoption across logic, memory, photonics, and ASIP, and it continues to be a central pillar of a long-term growth. And finally, a mainstream business. This accounted for about 70% of our fiscal year 25 group revenue. In 2025, AI-related demand was also a strong momentum driver for a mainstream business. Rising requirements for AI data center power management applications kept utilization rates elevated and leading global IDMs, benefiting semi-mainstreams. Meanwhile, SMT mainstream secured more orders to support increased data transmission requirements for base stations and AI server boards. In China, our mainstream business saw around 18% year-on-year revenue growth across both SEMI and SMT. SEMI's growth was driven by strong demand for wire and die-border applications underpinned by robust offsets utilization. SMT benefited from increased deployment of AI server bots and strong demand for EEVs in 2025. With these highlights, let me now hand over the time to Kelly, who will walk you through our group and segment performance.

speaker
KJ Hsu
Group Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Robin. Good morning, good evening, everyone. Let me take you through the group financial performance. Before I start, I would like to reiterate that unless otherwise specified, The numbers I'll be referring to today are for the group's continuing operations only, with adjustments made under non-HKFRS measures. This slide covers our financial results for 2025. For the full year, the group delivered a revenue of $1.76 billion, representing an increase of 10.0% year-on-year, driven largely by TCB. Group bookings reached $1.86 billion, representing 21.7% year-on-year growth. Both SMT and SME registered high bookings during the year. The group continues to build a healthy backlog with book-to-bill of 1.05, which is our highest since 2021. In 2025, group adjusted gross margin was 38.3%. This was 172 basis points lower year-on-year, reflecting lower gross margin in both SMT and SME. Group operating expenditures was 4.56 billion Hong Kong dollars, up 3.2% year-on-year, mainly driven by strategic R&D and IT infrastructure investments of 237 million Hong Kong dollars, as we communicated at the beginning of last year. These investments were partially offset by disciplined execution of cost control and efficiency measures. Now looking ahead for 2026 for Alpax, as Robin mentioned, We're committed to continuing the investment in our core technologies, and we expect OPEX to rise by about 200 million Hong Kong dollars in 2026. In 2025, both adjusted operating profit and net profit improved year on year due to high revenue and operating leverage. In the fourth quarter, we delivered a revenue for continuing operations and discontinued operations of 557.1 million US dollars that surpassed the upper end of our guidance. Q4 revenue for continuing operations was $508.9 million, representing an increase of 12.2% Q&Q and 30.9% year-on-year, driven by a strong growth across both SEMI and SMT. Group Q4 bookings were $499.7 million. The Q&Q increase was due to stronger TCB bookings, while the year-on-year growth was largely driven by SMT's mainstream business. Group Q4 adjusted gross margin with 35.8%, down 175 basis points Q on Q and 101 basis points year on year. This sequential decline came from both semi and SMT, with year on year decline due to lower semi margins, partially offset by higher SMT margins. Group Q4 adjusted operating profit was 161.0 million Hong Kong dollars, 4.3% Q on Q due to higher revenue and operating leverage. Group Q4 adjusted net profit was 119.9 million Hong Kong dollars, up 42.2% Q on Q and 390.7% year on year. The Q on Q increase was larger due to fees of 39 million Hong Kong dollars from order cancellations, while the year on year increase was due to stronger operating profit. Adjusted earnings per share were 30 cents Hong Kong dollars. Moving on to the semiconductor solution segment for the fourth quarter of 2025, Semi delivered a Q4 revenue of $245.6 million, an increase of 9.4% QMQ and 19.5% year-on-year. QMQ and year-on-year growth were driven by AI-related applications, mainly from photonics. Semi Q4 bookings were $253.3 million, up 15.4% QMQ and 2.3% year-on-year. The increases were due to TCV orders from advanced logic customers and a market share gain in high-end diebounders. Semi book-to-bill ratio in Q4 2025 was 1.03. Q4 adjusted margin for Semi came in at 40.3%, down 102 basis points QonQ and 292 basis points EonYear. The QonQ decline was largely due to product mix and inventory provision as a result of an isolated order cancellation. Year-on-year decline was due to product mix, inventory provision mentioned above, and higher factory utilization in Q4 2024 during the TCB rep. Q4 adjusted settlement profit was HK$98.0 million, up 62.5% Q-on-Q and up significantly year-on-year. Both Q-on-Q and year-on-year improvements were mainly driven by higher volume and fees related to auto cancellations. Next, let me move to the SMT solution segment performance for the fourth quarter of 2025. SMT delivered a strong Q4 revenue of $263.3 million, up 15.0% Q on Q and 43.8% Y on Y, driven by AI servers, EVs in China, and the billing of a bulk order for smartphone applications. However, contributions from automotive and market outside of China and industrial remained soft. SMT recorded Q4 bookings of $246.4 million, down 3.9% Q on Q, but up 73.3% year on year. The Q on Q decline was due to seasonality, while the year on year increase came from the demand for AI servers and EVs in China. Q4 SMT gross margin was 31.6%, down 225 basis points Q on Q, but up 199 basis points year on year. The Q&Q decline reflected continued weakness in automotive and industrial end markets, and the building of bulk order mentioned above, which had a lower margin. The year-on-year increase was mainly due to higher volume. Q4 segment profit was HK$193.1 million, up 18.5% Q&Q, and significantly year-on-year due to higher volume. This slide highlights ASMPT's revenue breakdown by end markets. Computer-end market was significantly up, becoming the largest contributor to group revenue, accounting for 22%. The growth in computing was largely driven by our TCB solutions. Consumer-end market was the second largest contributor at 17%. Year-on-year revenue growth came largely from the group's mainstream solutions, consistent with higher revenue from China. The communication-end market contributed to 16% to group revenue, driven by photonics and high-end smartphone-related applications. The automotive end market contributed almost 16% to group revenue, supported by EV demand in China, where the group remains the leading player. Lastly, the industrial end market contributed 10% to group revenue, reflecting soft market conditions. As you can see from this slide, we're a truly global business, partnering with customers across all major regions. China remained the largest market, contributing 41% of group revenues. However, Europe and America's decline young year, mainly due to soft market conditions in SMT, with Europe's share of revenue down to 13% and America's down to 11%. Looking at Asia outside China, their proportion increased collectively from 24% to 34%, largely driven by TCB revenue. the group continued to maintain low customer concentration risk, with the top five customers representing approximately 16% of total revenue in 2025. We have an existing dividend policy of distributing about 50% of the annual profits as dividends, and we firmly believe in returning excess cash to our shareholders. For the second half of 2025, with adjusted EPS at 68 cents in Hong Kong dollars, For continuing and discontinued operations, the board has recommended a final dividend of $0.34 per share. In addition, the board has recommended a special cash dividend of $0.79 per share. After taking into consideration the net cash inflow from recent strategic projects, together with the interim dividend of $0.26 per share paid in August 2025, the total dividend payment for 2025 will be HK$1.39 per share. With that, let me now pass the time back to Robin for an update on our transformation initiatives and the next quarter's revenue guidance.

speaker
Robin Ng
Group Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Kitty. As mentioned earlier, we undertook several transformation initiatives from the late 2025 to date as part of our long-term strategy. In November 2025, We completed the divestment of our entire equity interest in AMI in exchange for cash and new shares in Shenzhen Original Advanced Compounds Company Limited. In January this year, we announced a strategic options assessment of our SMT solution segment. The assessment is underway and we will update at the appropriate time when there are material developments. Lastly, today we make the public the decision to divest ASM Next Inc. This initiative shares a common objective of optimizing ASMPT's portfolio, streamlining operations to enhance agility, and improving margin and profitability. while ensuring continued investment in infrastructure and technology development in high growth areas. They also sharpen our focus on the backend packaging business. In the meantime, business for all our segments continue as usual. Let me now turn to our Q1 2026 revenue guidance. The group expects Q1 2026 revenue to be in the range of US dollar $470 million, and US$530 million. At midpoint, this represents a decline of 1.8% Q&Q, 29.5% year-on-year. Notably, the gross midpoint revenue guidance for continuing operations already exceeds current market consensus, which includes both continuing and discontinuing operations. We anticipate sustained Q&Q revenue growth in our semi-segment. driven by TCP and high-end die bonders, although this will be partially offset by SMT seasonality. On year-on-year basis, the higher group revenue is expected to be driven mainly by strong momentum in SMT, coupled with steady growth of semi. For Q1 2026, group gross margin is expected to improve. Led by semi-gross margin, returning to the mid-40s level. This improvement is driven by higher volumes from TCB and high-end dime bonders. SMT's loss margin, however, is expected to stay at similar levels as automotive and industrial end markets remain soft. The Group Booking's momentum will accelerate in Q1 2026, supported by both segments. Looking further ahead, structural industry growth from AI demand is expected to drive revenue growth across both SEMI and SMT. In TCB, with our industry-leading technologies and deep engagement across a broad AI customer base, we are well positioned to expand our TCB business in a rapidly growing market. Our SEMI and SMT mainstream businesses continue to be supported by global investment in AI infrastructure and steady demand from China. while SMT automotive and industrial air markets are expected to remain soft in the near term. This concludes our full year and fourth quarter 2025 presentation. Thank you. And we are now ready for Q&A. Let me pass back the time to Ben to facilitate.

speaker
Ben Po
Head of Investor Relations

Thank you, Robin. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the Q&A session. To ask a question, please click raise hand on Zoom and I'll request you to unmute. Please limit yourself to two questions each time and pose your questions one at a time. So with that, may I have the first question? Gogo, please unmute yourself and raise your question.

speaker
Gokul
Analyst

Good morning. Hi, Ben, Robin, Katie. Robin, first of all, thanks for your leadership over the many years and good luck on your retirement. My first question is on TCB, the addressable market TAM expansion to 1.6 billion. Could you talk a little bit more about where is the upside mostly coming from in your estimates? Let's say we get to this $1.6 billion. What will be the mix of HBM? versus logic look like in 2028? And given that you gave an estimate of 750 million addressable market for last year, what was the market share roughly for ASMPT last year? Should we assume that it was about 30% or so for TCB? Just to get a starting point of your TCB journey when we think about this time expansion. Thanks.

speaker
KJ Hsu
Group Chief Financial Officer

Hey, Gokul, this is Katie. Let me try and address the questions that you have. First on the TCB TAM, let's just take a quick minute on the methodology. Actually, it's last year that was our first time publishing the TAM at the Billion. This year, actually, the methodology is very, very similar. So we essentially used the wafer per month. Actually, you guys have published in the industry and we started that to the number of AI chips and then interconnects and then the tools needed, right? So the same methodology. So to your question about what's driving the expansion, obviously, right, really is the starting point. It's the wave of a month that has expanded significantly for the AI industry overall. So that's the main expansion. Now, in terms of the mix of HBM and the logic, I think previous years we've communicated that HBM is the larger portion of the TAM. And it will continue to be so probably until as we go into the outer years, right? If we talk about HBM20 high beyond, then at that point, maybe Hyperbond will be kicking in and then the logic side, especially COW, will actually become more prominent in the TAM. So then the other things you asked about the last year's market share, and you said about 30%, and you are quite in the ballpark for that one.

speaker
Gokul
Analyst

Got it. That's very clear. Thank you very much for the clarification. Second, on the proceeds from, I think, this rationalization of the portfolio and some strategic actions that you're taking, good to see that happen. But could you also talk a little bit about what is the kind of end state that you are hoping for once this rationalization is being done? Are there areas that you are kind of trying to bulk up on as it pertains to the backend packaging business? And specifically on NEX, what is the rationale for divesting NEX? given that has a fair bit of 2.5D bumping and ECD plating kind of business, which theoretically feels like closer to the advanced packaging business, but just help us understand why that divestment of NEX is also happening.

speaker
Robin Ng
Group Chief Executive Officer

Thanks for your question. I think your question is good. So basically, I think it's focusing really on our backend packaging business because this is where, you know, we feel this is where the structural growth will be. And this is where I think our strengths sort of match the the industrial roadmap for packaging. So really back to focusing on backend packaging. So first you notice we divest our late frame business that was just one step. And now we are assessing SMT, which is more of the downstream operation. And then as to your question, next is, although it's advanced packaging, but it's not exactly backend, it's belonging more to the middle end. And the technology, to be honest, is more web technology, whereas backend technology is really more automation and so forth. So we felt that it's probably a right time to consider divesting next to really focus all our attention, all our resources on the backend side.

speaker
Gokul
Analyst

Understood. And maybe if I could squeeze in one more, I think. Any quick view on how the mainstream semi-solution business, you're expecting it to progress, Robin? What are you hearing from your customers given this? At least from a CapEx perspective, many of your customers seem to be moving up for the first time in this upcycle.

speaker
Robin Ng
Group Chief Executive Officer

Yes, I think we're beginning to see, maybe we talked about green shoots some quarters back, but this time around the green shoots seem to be real from our point of view. Now, because there is a tier win behind the mainstream business, and this time around, we feel that we have been talking for a few quarters already, Goku, that we feel this time around is underpinned by AI investment as well. You can imagine when industries continue to invest more and more in terms of data center, Besides GPUs, there are many other components inside a DIA server board. You know, you have power measurement devices and many other components, right? So you can imagine with all these server boards going to data center and the data center KPEX, there's huge massive amount of components need to be packaged using both our semi-wire-borne and the normal die-bound tools, as well as our SMT pick-and-place tools. So these AI data center investments are really driving our mainstream, both on the SEMI side as well as on the SMT side.

speaker
Gokul
Analyst

Okay, okay, that's very clear. So we should expect that mainstream SEMIs also should be growing. I think it's not been growing for maybe three, four years now after 2021, but looks like 26, we should see some growth in the non-advanced packaging piece of SEMI solutions as well, right?

speaker
Robin Ng
Group Chief Executive Officer

can see, I think our visibility is, again, it's quite normal in our business to be limited to one or two borders, right? So I think first half looks to be okay. Half of half, you know, better than half of half. So we think it will grow. But if you ask me on the second half, let's wait for a while to see how we develop limited visibility at this point in time for second half.

speaker
Gokul
Analyst

Got it. Thank you very much.

speaker
Ben Po
Head of Investor Relations

Thanks. Thank you, Gogo, for your questions. I see a raised hand from Daisy. Yeah, I'll request Daisy to unmute and raise your question.

speaker
Daisy
Analyst

Thank you, Ben. And firstly, I want to ask about the HBF opportunities because I listened to your competitors' earnings call. They are talking about high bandwidth flash opportunities. Have you guys also seen these opportunities from ASMPT side?

speaker
Robin Ng
Group Chief Executive Officer

Yes, we do, Desi. You have very good questions. I think this is, again, probably an exciting development. To be honest, we have not factored this into our TAM, TCB TAM, because potentially the way we assess the technology or the packaging technology required I think TCB could also be a tool to package HBF. So this is something that we look forward to. If the industry develops in this direction, I think we will also stand to benefit in time to come.

speaker
Daisy
Analyst

Okay, thank you. And also following Goku's previous question, and you previously also mentioned that you expect the second half will also grow versus first half. So I want to ask about the order visibility from ASMPT side, because I think in normal times, back-end order visibility is three to six months, and how is the order visibility now? And what is the magnitude that you are seeing that second half could grow versus first half?

speaker
Robin Ng
Group Chief Executive Officer

Correction, correction, Daisy, correction. Let me make it clearer. Just want to answer Kuku's question. I'm just saying first half 2026, we have better visibility. because of the momentum we are seeing in terms of advanced packaging as well as mainstream. But second half is still limited in terms of visibility. But at least this time round, We can see a little bit further, maybe slightly more than a quarter, but second half, let me correct your statement, second half, we still have limited visibility. So when I mentioned just now half on half, I'm sort of giving you some colour. First half this year, demand probably will be better than first half last year, as well as second half of last year. So I'm just comparing half on half and year on year. But second half, I repeat, we still have limited visibility at this point in time.

speaker
Daisy
Analyst

Okay, understood. Thank you. That's all my question.

speaker
Ben Po
Head of Investor Relations

Okay. Thank you, Daisy. And next, I'll request Arthur to unmute.

speaker
Arthur
Analyst

Hi, hi, hi, Robbie. You'll be missed. And thanks to you and Teddy and Ben. First, congrats on the strong results. The first question is on the backlog. You highlight that the backlog is almost over 800 million. Can you give us more color on the split between the semi and SMT? And also, you highlight the high-end bundler. Can you share with more on the non-TCBs product, such as panel-labeled fan-out? Thank you.

speaker
KJ Hsu
Group Chief Financial Officer

I found the backlog just really quick. The semi-side backlog is a larger quantum than SMT.

speaker
Arthur
Analyst

Okay. Is it significant higher or is it insignificant?

speaker
KJ Hsu
Group Chief Financial Officer

Oh, you mean the percentages are higher? Roughly 60-40, I guess. Don't call me that exact. Somewhere there.

speaker
Robin Ng
Group Chief Executive Officer

Okay, thank you. So, Arthur, on your second question about high-end dial bone, which I think you're referring to what we are mentioning in our announcement. Yes, I think if you're referring to the same thing, I think it's good news. We have penetrated into a high-end die-attached application for high-end smartphones, right? So if you look at the camera modules of high-end smartphones, there are many, many box-shaped components in there which need to be put in place as well. So the customers have chosen our die attach application to place those components. So this is a brand new market for us. We have never been in this market. So we really look forward to increasing the market share in this particular area. So that's for the high end die bond I think you're referring to. Now, you also have a question on panel level. Fair enough. We see a lot of trending in that direction. We feel that this is also driven by AI as well. right? So panel level of panel for components that go into data center becoming more and more visible. So definitely we have a tool, basically a mass reflow tool that we can deploy for a solution like this. So we also pretty well a place to capture this opportunity.

speaker
Arthur
Analyst

And the second question is on the page 10, you highlight There is an order cancellation on the semi side. Can you give us more color? Is it associated with the NEXT?

speaker
KJ Hsu
Group Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, Arthur, so this order cancellation does not have an association with NEXT. So let me just give a little bit more color on that. The order cancellation came from a global IDM who's focused on automotive applications. And the order came a few years ago and it was for our semi mainstream products. The customer had to cancel the order due to weak automotive industry performance. So that's why we got this cancellation. But I want to make sure that we all understand this is a very much an isolated event.

speaker
Arthur
Analyst

Thank you. No more question. Thanks, Arthur.

speaker
Ben Po
Head of Investor Relations

Thank you, Arthur. Next, I would like to request Le Ping to unmute and raise a question.

speaker
Le Ping
Analyst

Thank you for taking my question. The first question is also about the TCV time. So when you derive the TCV time in 2028, what's the split between memory and logic? And you also say that your target is 35% to 40% market share in 2028. So what's your current market share in memory and logic? and what's the upside we can expect in the next few years? Thank you.

speaker
KJ Hsu
Group Chief Financial Officer

Let me just add a little bit more. Basically, essentially, the answer I've provided called the split of memory and logic. Currently, the memory, the HBM portion in the temp definitely is much larger than logic. But as we go out a few years out, this dynamic will actually shift. where the logics, especially COW, will actually take a larger share. But we do not share the specific split for confidentiality reasons or competitive reasons, I should say. Now, in terms of the market share, as Robin has mentioned in the opening, ASMPT is very, very strong in COS. And also when we are actually making a lot of wins on COW. So Our market presence in the logic space is very strong. HBM, you guys probably remember a year ago, we broke into HBM market. So we have gained market share there. So that's kind of where we are in terms of market share.

speaker
Robin Ng
Group Chief Executive Officer

Maybe just to end on a little bit in terms of the competition landscape, right? I think in the logic space, we have a POR for a very key supply chain for chip on substrate application. And then recently, the good news is that we announced we want two tools for C2W application, right, for the same supply chain. And then we want two more. So I think it is a signal that we are also being recognized as a a solid solution provider for the C2W space as well. Now on the memory side, I think the competition landscape is different. We have a strong company in the memory space, but we have done a fantastic job in 2024. We have practically zero share in HBA. And then 2025, we managed to penetrate in a very meaningful way. in the HBM market. Now that we have a strong foothold in the memory market, we look forward to better times ahead in terms of HBM demand allocation.

speaker
Le Ping
Analyst

Okay. The second question is about the memory super cycle. So are you seeing an acceleration of the capacity expansion from your HBM customer? And given your HBM 4.0, 12 high or the win. Are your customer provide a longer term rolling forecast to secure your TCB tour for the 12 high and the 16 high or how you play your capacity in the this year for the TCB business? Thank you.

speaker
Robin Ng
Group Chief Executive Officer

Thanks. Definitely in terms of the HCBM CapEx is really in line with investment in data center, right? So when data center investment continue to increase, you can expect HBM to continue to increase as well, not just in the number of HBM, but also in the higher stack from 12 high to 16 high to 20 high eventually. So that means there'll be more and more opportunities for TCB packaging as HBM continue to stack up in terms of high. Now, you asked whether, you know, about capacity allocation. To be honest, I think there are some module differentiation between 12 height and 16 height, but they are not major. Some hardware module need to be different. If we use to package between 12 height and 16 height, there are some hardware modifications, but also some software. So there's not much material differences between the 12-height TCB tool and the 16-height tool.

speaker
Le Ping
Analyst

Thank you. Thank you very much.

speaker
Ben Po
Head of Investor Relations

Thank you, Loving. And next, I would like to request Simon Wu to unmute and raise questions.

speaker
Simon Wu
Analyst

Yeah, thank you very much. Thank you, Robin, as always. And we'll miss you. Thank you. So the long-term questions for 2028. CCB market 10, $1.6 billion for 2028. Any rough ideas or percentage of the hybrid bonding assumption for that time or very low single digits or mid single digits?

speaker
Ben Po
Head of Investor Relations

Sorry, Simon, because your line is breaking up. So do you mind to say it again? Yeah.

speaker
Simon Wu
Analyst

My question is the hybrid bonding portion of the 2028 10, $1.6 billion.

speaker
KJ Hsu
Group Chief Financial Officer

So this is a TCB TAM, so there is no hyperbound in the TCB TAM. But I guess you're asking our assumption of the hyperbound adoption timing. Is that what your question is?

speaker
Simon Wu
Analyst

Yeah, sure. Yeah, that can help.

speaker
KJ Hsu
Group Chief Financial Officer

Yeah. Okay. In our model so far for HBM 16 high, we are actually confident that the TCB will continue to serve 16 high. But as we get into 20 high, it really depends on the JTAG standard. If the standard continues to relax, then it will actually be an upside to this model. Otherwise, we assume in the model itself that the 20 high will be moving on to hyperbond, partially.

speaker
Simon Wu
Analyst

Yeah, partially. Yeah. The PCB can be used for the 20 high if the data says OK.

speaker
Robin Ng
Group Chief Executive Officer

Yes, Simon, I think looking at how the TCB technology developed over the years and also into the future, we are confident that the TCB technology together with, of course, we need to collaborate with our customers as well. Their wafer technology will probably, we believe, will continue to improve. So I think a combination of both the wafer as well as TCB tools, we are hopeful and optimistic that a 20 high can still use a TCB. Of course, if the JDAG standard can be relaxed to increase the height from 775 to beyond 775, maybe 950 or even 1050, the chance of using more TCB for 20 high and beyond will even be higher. So we just have to wait for a little bit longer to see how the industry plays this out in terms of the high restriction. Yeah, very clear, sir.

speaker
Simon Wu
Analyst

My question is logistic area. Do you see any meaningful progress for the hybrid bonding for coax or PPLP area?

speaker
Robin Ng
Group Chief Executive Officer

So I believe your question is in the logic area whether there's more opportunity for hybrid bonding, right? Yeah, correct. Actually, to be honest, hybrid bonding has already been adopted at the triplet level for certain devices. We believe that it's already been ongoing. It all depends. Again, it's very dynamic, right? To be honest, even at the cheaper level, TCB can be used as a tool as well, especially when we look at the exciting technology that we're going to develop for TCB going into the future. The TCB technology will get closer and closer to the every morning technology. So from that perspective, we are optimistic and hopeful that at some point, TCB can be used also at a chip-level integration level. But as I said, this industry is very dynamic. So nobody knows what's going to happen, but let's continue to monitor this space.

speaker
Simon Wu
Analyst

Yeah, very clear. Sorry, almost the last thing, quick tip. 30% of your revenue is advanced tax-keting. Any rough idea, that means anyway, near half a billion dollars your revenue for advanced packaging last year. Any rough idea, what was the TCB portion out of the total advanced packaging revenue last year?

speaker
Robin Ng
Group Chief Executive Officer

You're talking about TCB proportion to the advanced packaging? Is that what you're saying? Yeah, 20% last year, yeah. Very dominant, very dominant. Major share of the AP revenue. For TCB, yeah.

speaker
Simon Wu
Analyst

Dominant means majority, proportion.

speaker
Robin Ng
Group Chief Executive Officer

Yeah.

speaker
KJ Hsu
Group Chief Financial Officer

If you look at the TCB market, the TAM slide that we shared and Robin mentioned, you know what the TCB market size was in 2025. And I think Gokul earlier mentioned about market share as you do the rough calculation, you actually would get there. If that's what you guys are trying to do. Yeah.

speaker
Simon Wu
Analyst

Okay. Yeah, $200 million, $300 million maybe. Sorry, one last question from some investors asking, What overall the revenue disappearance or erosion after your massive restructuring for the SMT or lead frame, the back end area, what percentage of the revenue will be off once you complete for the restructuring process. Thank you.

speaker
KJ Hsu
Group Chief Financial Officer

I'm trying to understand your question. So for clarification, for AMI, we were 49% shareholding. And now after the disposal of AMI, there's actually no revenue impact year on year or the last few years. There's no revenue impact at all. For the next business, we just announced today to be as discontinued business. or put up for sale, right? Next revenue is about 100 million US dollars. That's what you're looking for.

speaker
Simon Wu
Analyst

Yeah, all clear. Thank you very much.

speaker
Ben Po
Head of Investor Relations

Thank you, Robin. Thank you. Thank you, Simon. Yeah, I think we have time for one final question. And Donnie, we'll request you to unmute and raise your question.

speaker
Donnie
Analyst

Thank you for taking my question and wish Robin you all the best after the retirement. Thank you. My first question is regarding to your guidance Can you break down or elaborate more on the bookings momentum in the first quarter and particularly TCB? Because I think based on your announcement in fourth quarter last year, we already have received quite some TCB orders. So I'm also wondering what kind of trend in terms of the TCB bookings into the first quarter this year. This is my first question.

speaker
Robin Ng
Group Chief Executive Officer

Thank you. Thank you, Tony. I think you probably expect my answer. We cannot be too granular because for competitive reason as well. But I think in overall, I think 2026, we were expecting TCP to continue to grow in line with the investment, so much investment in data center, right? So I think that's for one. Now, if I drill down to the booking, I'll give you some booking color, you know, for Q1 2026. We're likely to see a strong booking in Q1, Q2, around 20% growth Q2. and even stronger around 40% year-on-year growth for Q1-26 for both SMT segment as well as the Semi-segment. I think we have been talking a fair bit over the last couple of quarters as well that we see AP will continue to grow. And because of mainstream momentum gaining very strongly over the last one or two quarters and into Q1 2026 as well. So I think both advanced packaging as well as mainstream will continue to do well in Q1 2026 as far as bookings are concerned. Now, however, I have a caveat just now as well, right? With the stronger look of booking, Also, let me caveat or qualify that we might see some impact on revenue conversion because we are seeing longer material lead times due to tightness in the supply chain. So, although bookings are going to be very strong in Q1, but the conversion to revenue may take a little bit longer than usual because of supply chain tightness. Okay. Yeah. So I think this is some color I want to give you. And by the way, I think a Q1 bookings, the way we see it will be the highest quarterly booking in four years.

speaker
Donnie
Analyst

Understood. Can I have a follow up on this? So for the semi-business bookings, the strong sequential growth, Can we say it's primarily driven by more like conventional packaging or from advanced packaging?

speaker
Robin Ng
Group Chief Executive Officer

I would say mainstream will probably grow a little bit more than advanced packaging. Advanced packaging tend to be a bit lumpy. We have been saying that for a long time already. Don't expect AP revenue to be continuously high because first of all, most customers are limited. Less customers than the mainstream. Second, these are high-value tools, so customers cannot continue to buy quarter-on-quarter. But the demand for TCP is steady for sure. But don't expect this to continue to be on a quarter-on-quarter basis, continue to grow. But what we are seeing quite interesting is really on the mainstream side. So we see really a pickup in terms of mainstream for those reasons I said earlier, AI driven data center.

speaker
Donnie
Analyst

Okay, got it. And my second question is regarding to your 2025 review in terms of the market share game, particularly in the HBM market. But if I remember correctly, we actually received quite sizable orders from fourth quarter 2024. from leading hbn customers and since then into 2025 actually the bookings despite of there are some repeat orders but seems like not as significant as what we had back in fourth quarter 2024 so just want to clarify that our market share gain in 2025 for HP and TCP is primarily driven by the big orders we receive in fourth quarter 2024.

speaker
KJ Hsu
Group Chief Financial Officer

Just really quick, Johnny, the market share data is actually based on billing.

speaker
Donnie
Analyst

So the follow-up is like, When should we expect to receive a more meaningful repeat orders from the leading HBM customer? I mean, or when should we can be expect that the orders can be maybe more significant than what we had back in fourth quarter 2024?

speaker
Robin Ng
Group Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, I think it all depends on how soon they roll out in volume for section height, right? So also that depends on their customers' rollout of the new architecture. So the timing has to be aligned with ultimately how how the ultimate customer roll out the GPU's architecture. So I think as the industry moves from 12 high to 16 high, I think all equipment suppliers including myself for TCB are waiting anxiously for that particular customer to allocate TCB demand. So at this moment, we fear that 2026 will be a year whereby there will be new tool demand for TCB for 16 high. But exact timing, unfortunately, Donnie, I cannot give you any visibility at this point in time. But it cannot be too long.

speaker
Donnie
Analyst

Thank you, Robin. Thank you, Katie, for the presentation.

speaker
Ben Po
Head of Investor Relations

Thank you, Donnie. That will be our last question for today. So I will pass the time back to Robin for his closing remarks.

speaker
Robin Ng
Group Chief Executive Officer

So thank you for all your well wishes about my retirement. Now, before we end, let me capture some really key takeaway from today's discussion. First, 2025 was a year of solid execution for us and strengthening our customer engagement across the group. So we delivered growth in both bookings and revenue with a book-to-bill ratio of 1.05 and a healthy backlog with reflecting continued momentum and the trust the customer placed in us. Second, AI-related demand was the engine of our overall business in 2025. Across both infrastructure and applications, AI drove significant activity in both SEMI and SMT. This reflects an enduring structural trend that we expect to persist for some time as it increasingly shapes customer roadmaps and priorities. Last but not least, TCB was a standout for us in terms of momentum and in terms of technology leadership. We expanded engagement in both logic and memory, securing wins across HBM, C2S, and C2W application. So with our latest TCB 10 projection, this highlights the scale of the opportunities in TCB, and we continue to target a 35% to 40% share of this market. So in short, before I close, overall, we are well positioned as we enter 2026. So thank you once again for joining us, and we look forward to updating you in the next quarter. This concludes our call. Thank you and take care.

Disclaimer

This conference call transcript was computer generated and almost certianly contains errors. This transcript is provided for information purposes only.EarningsCall, LLC makes no representation about the accuracy of the aforementioned transcript, and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the information provided by the transcript.

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