Aviva Plc U/Adr

and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Aviva's Q1 2025 Trading Update Analyst Call. If you wish to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad. You will hear a tone to confirm that you are in the queue. If you wish to withdraw your question, you may do so by pressing star 2 to cancel. I must advise you that this conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand over the conference to Aviva's Group CEO, Amanda Blanc.

Morning everyone and welcome to Aviva's first quarter episode. As usual, I'll give a brief overview and then hand over to Charlotte to give you the details before we move to questions. So it's been another great start to the year for Aviva. We continue to trade strongly, serving our customers well, growing profitably across the group and demonstrating the resilience of our diversified business. We are well positioned to continue delivering through this current period of market volatility. What today's numbers tell you is that we are continuing to build momentum by executing on our consistent strategy at pace and focusing on capital light growth. Let me just share a few highlights. General insurance premiums increased by 9% with strong performances in both personal and commercial lines. We continue to see high levels of interest in health insurance and we grew sales by 19% with strong demand from consumers and employers. In our wealth business, we secured 2.3 billion pounds of net flows, which is an encouraging 5% of opening AUM, and we increased net flows by 52% in our platform business. Putting customers first remains central to our strategy, and we've continued to deliver for them in quarter one. We helped customers with claims following snow, ice storms, and flooding in Canada, And after Storm AO in an island, we had teams on the ground helping our customers, arranging repairs to damaged properties and providing alternative accommodation. We also made good strategic progress, accelerating our integration of Probitas as we launched another two new lines of business in the first quarter. And our proposed acquisition of Direct Line Group is firmly on track. The DLG shareholder vote was overwhelmingly supportive and we're really excited about the next phase for the group as we accelerate our capital-like growth and bring the best of Aviva to millions more people. In summary, we continue to be very positive about the outlook for 2025, a transformative year for Aviva. Our balance sheet is strong and our market-leading businesses are growing profitably and sustainably. All of this gives me renewed confidence in our ability to deliver our existing group ambitions and targets. With that, I'll hand over to Charlotte to take you through the numbers. Thanks, Amanda, and good morning, everyone.

It's good to speak to you today about the continued growth across our business and another quarter of strong delivery. I'll first cover the highlights from the businesses, starting with general insurance. We achieved premium growth of 9% across the UK, Ireland and Canada. and pleased with the progression of the underlying cause across all markets, a result of our discipline in pricing, strong rate adequacy and cost focus. That said, we experienced elevated weather events in both Ireland and Canada compared to long-term averages. And overall, this led to an undiscounted core of 96.6%, which was 0.8 points higher than Q1 2024. I'll now unpack this a little more for you, noting a very pleasing milestone that across our UK and Ireland GI businesses, we wrote more than £2 billion of premium this quarter. In UK general insurance, we saw strong growth. This was the result of a good balance of new business, volume and rate. And as you would expect, we remain focused on profitability. Personal lines premiums were up 6% to £945 million. Growth was delivered by our intermediated business, both from existing and new partnerships. Premiums in retail were consistent with the strong Q1 2024 levels. We saw good volume growth offset by lower average premiums. This is as expected in the relatively softer market conditions when compared with the hard markets of Q1 2024. Across all channels, we continue to take a disciplined approach. We priced for inflation, with new business demonstrating good rate adequacy and strong written cause. Commercial lines premiums grew to £828 million, and with the addition of probitas to £905 million, up 17%. In GCS, growth predominantly came from new business. Rate was broadly flat, as some lines showed rate improvement, but were offset by some softening in other lines. Meanwhile, in UK SME, commercial lines growth came primarily from strong rate and indexation. The UK general insurance undiscounted core was 95.3%, an improvement of two points, as the benefits of strong trading and rate increases in the past year continue to earn through. Importantly, Q1 written cores support the continued trend of positive underlying performance development. In Ireland, premiums of £151 million were 21% up, with personal lines up strongly. The underlying core remained consistent with the prior year, but as mentioned, weather losses were higher than long-term averages. Stormy Owen led to elevated claims across the market, and we saw losses broadly in line with our market share. This was the largest windstorm to hit the island in over 40 years, leading to significant damage as well as outages that were sustained for days. As a result, the undiscounted core was 117.8%. In Canada, premiums of £904 million were up 5% at constant currency. Personal lines premiums grew 10%, driven by continued rate actions across both auto and personal property. In commercial lines, premiums were 2% lower, as pricing increases taken were more than offset by lower volumes, where we took actions to improve profitability on some accounts. On an underlying basis, core improved, benefiting from rate actions earning through. Lower claims frequency and improving theft trends offset inflation impacts, including an adjustment made for inflation estimates of U.S. tariffs. Canadian undiscounted court was 96.2%, reflecting a number of weather events in the period above long-term averages for Q1. These included floods in Ontario and snow and ice storms towards the end of the quarter. And our losses for these events were broadly in line with our market share. Moving to IWR. In the insurance business, protection and health sales were up 19%. with protection volumes benefiting from the acquisition of AIG. Individual protection benefited from strong sales through estate agents in advance of stamp duty increases in April. And the health business continues to show excellent momentum with in-force premiums up 11%. Wealth flows of 2.3 billion pounds represented 5% of opening AUM, another strong performance. Platform continues to perform really well, up 52% to 1.3 billion pounds. We saw record flows ahead of the tax year end with strong inflows in both advisor platform and direct wealth. In Q1, workplace net flows were an impressive 1.2 billion pounds. Now, whilst this was lower than Q1 2024, this simply reflected the exit of one large scheme to another provider. Workplace flows can be uneven from quarter to quarter. Sizeable scheme wins have transitioned to Aviva in April, meaning that net flows for wealth overall, as at the end of April, were £4 billion, which is up 16% on the same time the previous year. The overall resilience of workplace flows and the strength of our advisor platform business position us well as we look forward in this key growth area. and we remain confident in our ambition that wealth will deliver £280 million of operating profit by 2027. Retirement volumes grew 4% to 1.8 billion, with VNB up 28%, reflecting improved margins as we wrote more smaller BPA schemes. Total BPA volumes were 1.3 billion across 25 deals in the quarter, We continue to invest in our proposition and are now able to provide indicative quotes to schemes through Aviva Clarity within 48 hours, which is a competitive edge. The BPA pipeline remains reasonably strong, though as mentioned in February at our year-end presentation, we are not likely to see a repeat of the volumes achieved in 2024. In individual annuities, it has been positive to see the benefits of the investment we've been making in our operations. with volumes up 32%. That concludes my review of the businesses, and I'll now move to the balance sheet metrics, all of which demonstrate our focus on balance sheet resilience. Solvency of 201% remains strong. And to walk you through the main drivers in the period, total capital generation in the quarter created about five points, including the usual operating capital generation, as well as a small positive from market movements, primarily interest rates. And the full year dividend used about eight points. I'm really pleased with the debt actions we've taken this year, which contributed a small positive to the ratio in Q1 and resolved the last of the legacy capital instrument map. Importantly, we received shareholder approval to cancel the group's preference shares, with the process receiving overwhelming support. And subject to one remaining court approval, this concludes a long-standing legacy matter ahead of this year end, when the instruments would cease to qualify as regulatory capital. And just before the end of Q1, we issued our second restricted Tier 1 debt instrument of £500 million. which was keenly priced and heavily oversubscribed. Now, the market turbulence following Q1 had no substantial impact on the asset portfolio and solvency ratio, a further demonstration of our balance sheet strength. Sensitivities show we have relatively low exposure to market stress, especially in equities where we are well hedged. As an indication, the impact of the significant market volatility since the end of Q1 on our solvency ratio was about a point adverse as at the end of April. Moving to other balance sheet metrics, our credit portfolio continued to perform well in Q1 with limited net downgrades to a lower letter, about 1% of the portfolio. There were no downgrades below investment grade. Our portfolio has shown its resilience through various periods of stress over recent years. And remember, insurance companies like Aviva hold these instruments through the cycle, and so short-term mark-to-market movements have little impact. Leverage on a consistent basis to the solvency ratio, which makes an allowance for the shareholder approval to cancel the preference shares, was 30.1%. And central liquidity was £1.8 billion at the end of April. This is separate to the £1.8 billion of funds which have been remitted to the group for the cash component of the DLG acquisition. These funds are held in escrow in preparation for the transaction closing. So to summarise, Aviva continues to grow, our balance sheet is strong and we have a firm and disciplined grip on performance management. This is a transformative year for Aviva, and there is a huge amount of work underway as we progress towards the completion of the DLG transaction and plan for the integration. We remain on track to complete the transaction around the middle of the year, and we are well prepared for the integration and looking forward to unlocking the full potential of the combined group. More broadly, we continue to deliver for our shareholders, our customers, and our customers. And specifically, I'm confident in our 2026 group targets and business ambitions. While market conditions are uncertain, my view and confidence on the outlook for the group remain very positive. And I'm excited about what the future holds. And with that, I'll hand over to the operator to start the Q&A.

Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. You'll hear a tone to confirm that you're in the queue. If you wish to withdraw your question, you may do so by pressing star two to cancel. There'll now be a short pause while questions are being registered. Thank you. Our first caller is Andrew Sinclair from Bank of America. Your line is now unmuted. Please go ahead.

Good morning, everyone. Thank you very much. Three for me, please. First, just on tariffs, I guess, in particular in Canada, you mentioned that precautionary inflation adjustment for US tariffs. Can you give us any more details on that? And likewise, have you made any adjustments in the UK for tariff impacts? The second, just anything you can tell us more on UK personal lines pricing. I get it, you're pricing to maintain strong rate adequacy, but where we are in pricing today, what's the desire to grow at the current pricing levels? What's your view on pricing in the market today and where we go from here? And third was just on central liquidity. I thought that was a really strong print given it excludes the funding for DLG. How should we think about that? And is there anything that we should be aware of in terms of timing of remittances or anything like that this year? Thank you very much.

Okay, thanks, Andy. So maybe I'll pick up the first two and Charlotte can pick up the central liquidity points. So on tariffs sort of more broadly, we have limited sort of direct exposure to those tariffs. And particularly, you know, if you think about the UK business, which is a significant portion of the group, you know, there we're really impacted to the extent of any geopolitical or macroeconomic impacts that there may be. And Charlotte has talked through some of the impacts that we've seen, which are very limited. So in Canada, you're right, we do have some exposure through auto. But just to break that down, and I mean, first of all, I think it's fair to say that that auto tariff has now been postponed for two years on auto parts. So At the minute, there is no direct impact from what we see. But if you think about a motor claim in auto in Canada, two-thirds of that claim is injury and one-third of that claim is damage. And of that damage, our estimate is around 50% of that, the parts would be impacted by tariffs. So once you break all of that down, actually it's a pretty limited impact on Aviva products. you know, with the size of the Aviva Group. On saying that, we were cautious in adjusting for that. And we've done that in two ways. You know, we've looked at what's the potential inflationary increase on the reserves because of tariffs. And maybe Charlotte will come back on that if there's anything more you have to ask on that. And secondly, just in the rating. So obviously, you know that in Canada, the rating environment is such that you have to submit your rates to the regulator. So we've got all of that prepared. And obviously, we're off the back of some strong rating action that we've already taken in personal lines yesterday. in Canada over the last number of years. So we feel pretty well equipped. I think in terms of adjustments in the UK, no, we haven't made any. But obviously in the UK, you've got an incredibly dynamic rating environment and an incredibly dynamic feed of data that is going on between claims and underwriting in any one hour. Owen and the team are constantly looking at the pricing and any changes that they're seeing from that. In terms of pricing for personal lines in the UK, so look, what we have seen here is that, so inflation is around mid single digits, and we think that's sort of across the board. And in Q1, so we listed motor first, we lowered new business rates broadly in line with the market. So there's been some Pearson Ham data, I think, which has come out recently, which is down around 4%. But what we are seeing and what I think the external data validates is that pace of reduction has been decelerating through the quarter. And we have seen that continue, that deceleration continue into April. So, you know, we feel that that is a pretty good position to be in. So that is new business rates. On renewal pricing, rates are about 1% lower in Q1. I think, you know, I would always remind you, and I know I'm speaking to experts and I know you understand this, but we come off the back of significant price adequacy. You know, if we look at the rates that were being put through at the back end of 2023. So, you know, the cumulative year to date increase Q4 on motor for 2023 is 47%. So what you're seeing is some So it's some more normalizing of rates. If we talk about home, so on home, the situation is that we have not lowered our rates. So this is Aviva. Whilst the market has softened its rating in Q1, we have not lowered our rates. And I think, you know, if I bring then home and motor together, what you will expect to see from us is that we will, you know, we will obviously maintain rate adequacy. You've seen the performance of the UK core that Charlotte talked about there. We were obviously, you know, we are going to maintain our discipline as the market does what the market does. But we definitely feel that, you know, that we're in really good shape on both motor and home.

Just going back to the Canadian tariff reserve effect, to be a bit more specific, to build on Amanda's point. So what we've done there, and it's reflected in the Canadian Corps, is for the open... Within the context of what Amanda's explained, where we're talking about the motor claim, open claims, we've kind of adjusted our inflation assumptions on what those claims costs are going to make. And that's led to the slight reserve adjustment. And obviously, we will see over the coming months as those claims actually work through whether that reserving is more or less than actually what it costs to fulfill the claim. So it's relatively modest, but it was precautionary in the face of that inflation driver. Coming then to central liquidity. So at the end of the year, I think we published an end of January position of 1.7 billion. And today we're publishing the end of April position of 1.8. So it's a hundred million increase, but there's a lot more going on there than that. But I think what you can see and what I'll try and unpick for you now is real power of the cash generation of the group. So let me illustrate with a couple of points. Firstly, and separate to the central liquidity number of 1.8 billion, we remitted cash to the center to be ready for the closing of the DLG transaction. And we combined what we remitted centrally with roughly 400 million from the central liquidity to give us another 1.8 billion. It's not helpful that they're all 1.8 billions, but there's another 1.8 billion of funds that is ring-fenced centrally, outside of central liquidity, ready for closing the DLG transaction. And having done that, we then cancelled the finance facility that was set up at the time that we announced the deal. So then if you go back to central liquidity... The increase through to the end of April has partly come from the 500 million RT1 debt issuance, which was done right at the end of Q1, offset by the amount that we've removed across to the ring fence fund I just mentioned. And remembering that ordinary remittances, Q1 is not a big period for ordinary remittances. So that's kind of driven the increase to the 1.8 that you can see there at the end of the April. So whilst that's high, then it's important to remember that there's some calls on that cash. So we've got the cancellation of the PREF shares. which is the paramount 450, then you add the premium is about total of about 665. And then obviously later in Q2, there's the final dividend payment. So that's using up quite a bit, but obviously the second quarter, when a lot of that central liquidity naturally gets replenished by the remittances from the business operations across the group, which is all very much scheduled on track for delivery in Q2, primarily relates to IWR, and the UK GI business and is very much in line with the progression and towards the target for cash remittances of greater than 5.8 billion over the periods, what, 24 to 26. So hopefully that unpacks it for you, Andy.

Thanks, Andy. Thank you very much. That's good. Thank you. Thank you. Our next caller is Rhea Shah from Deutsche Bank. Your line is now unmuted. Please go ahead.

Great, thank you very much, and hi, Amanda Charlotte. Great question from me too. The first one, in terms of the margin in annuities, this is strong and clearly you've already said that this is because of the smaller scheme. Do you expect this to continue into the second quarter or the rest of the year? The second question is going back to UKGI and personal lines. maybe taking it from a different point, but what are you seeing in terms of claiming inflation, frequency trends in motor and home? And then finally, in terms of commercial, both in the UK, but also Canada, what are you seeing in terms of pricing for yourself, but also in terms of markets as well? How do you position yourself versus the markets? Thank you.

Okay, thanks.

Do you want to pick up one? I'll pick up two and three. Yeah, so look, I think in margins, as we said, it's predominantly driven by strength in the BPA margins. We've written 1.3 billion of volumes in the quarter, which is similar to last year. It's across 25 deals, though. So, you know, you can see that's typically the smaller schemes. And with that mix sort of weighting more towards the smaller schemes, we see that coming through in the higher margin. I think as we progress through the year, we would expect this to normalise as the mix of schemes becomes more normalised to a mix of larger and smaller schemes. So I would kind of guide you back to similar margin levels to what we saw last year as we progressed through the year for retirement overall.

Okay, so there's a number of things. Maybe we can start with commercial lines pricing. So thinking here, UK first. So, I mean, good rate adequacy in the book. Again, I think it is the same story as we've talked about for retail in that we come off the back of hard markets and good performance. So what we're seeing here, if we break it down, is a slowing in rate momentum in the commercial lines market overall, but particularly for the larger accounts. So, this is where we will remain disciplined and make sure that we get the price adequacy right. So, we're still targeting rating increases, particularly on those challenged accounts. So, I think in this sort of market, you will be selective about more individual account underwriting rather than group account underwriting. And the retention remains very strong at around 90% in the commercial lines business in the UK. So if we think about the GCS business, we're still seeing rating increases in motor specialty lines, in liability and property investors. But in some areas like that in financial lines, we are seeing that the soft market conditions of last year have continued into 2025. If we talk about the market, the mid-market business, we're still seeing good price increase across all those key lines of business. And in the SME business, we are still seeing good pricing increases. So I think, you know, as always, it's the larger cases that are coming under more scrutiny and are more competitive. On the US, I think about inflation. I thought I did answer that in the first question, but just in case, just what I said was on UK inflation, it's around mid single digits and that's really across all the lines. So I sort of won't break that down for you. And our sort of outlook on that is that we think that that will continue to plateau. I mean, obviously with all the caveats around macro and everything else. On frequency, so we have seen, you know, continued improvement on frequency in the UK, which I think was a question that we answered back in March. Sorry, February. So it's Q1 2025 frequency has followed similar trend to 2024. Here I'm really talking motor frequency. And that's in common, I think, with other areas across the market. We've got fewer accidents than the previous year. But obviously, January weather does affect motor as well as other lines of business. So we saw some small increase in frequency in January. but the claims frequency trends are coming down, and there's contributory factors from that, whether that is favourable winter weather in the latter part of the quarter, positive impacts from improvements in vehicle, and also the 20 mile an hour limits. Obviously, my home country of Wales has put in place and in many other parts of the UK. So you're sort of seeing that coming through. In terms of home frequency, I don't have any sort of specific data on that. But obviously, you know, if there are weather events, you would see that frequency increase for weather. On Canada, let me just try and find that here. I've got so many pieces of data. It's all very exciting. I know, hold on, hold on. What we're seeing in Canada is that inflation is around five to 6% in motor and in property. So very, very similar to the UK. And in terms of rating in both auto and property, we've put in around 11%. So you can see that's more than adequately covering for inflation. In commercial lines, Inflation is around 5 to 6%, so the same, and renewal rate increases is just slightly less than that. But again, coming off strong, strong rating. Premium retention is about 86%. What I would say on Canada is, and Charlotte referenced it in her speech, we have exited an unprofitable scheme. So, you know, that is impacting the overall retention. But I think overall, we're in good shape in these. We're monitoring it all very closely and reacting, obviously, pretty quickly. Hopefully that's covered all of the questions there.

Yes, very helpful. Thank you.

Thank you. Our next caller is Larissa van de Venter from Barclays. Your line is now unmuted. Please go ahead.

Thank you very much and good morning. Thank you for the detail on the UK, which I was going to ask. In Canada, though, one of your peers reported a combined ratio that was quite a bit lower. than what you reported. How should we think about your geographical exposure and about the evolution in the market going forward, please?

Is that just one question, Larissa? Yeah. Yeah. OK, so maybe I'll ask Charlotte to just comment on the relative, because I think there are differences. But just in terms of sort of geographic exposure more broadly, obviously, we benefit from the diversification, the geographic diversification in terms of the amount of capital that we have to hold and a very strong position in Canada as a number two player globally. You know, it is something that we, you know, we are looking to continue to maximize. So we've got very strong positions in whether it's commercial lines or personal lines and strong partnerships with RBC and a recent other big partnership partner that we've signed in Q1. So we feel very, very comfortable about that. But Charlotte, maybe you can just unpack a little bit the differences.

Yeah, and I'll just sort of unpack what's happened in court, because, you know, obviously drawing comparisons to competitors is always challenging. But our Q1 in Canada was impacted by, as I said earlier, three main weather events. So, you know, and these were, you know, the most destructive winter for weather events in Canada since about 2017. They largely affected Ontario, where we have, you know, higher market share than the market average. So our losses were in line with our share, but we have a greater share in Ontario. So this impacts, you know, us more than those that are less exposed to that region. So that's what I would say. None of the events were sufficient to be hitting the retentions of the reinsurance, but they were sizable in the context of Q1 and long-term averages that we normally expect to see. When I then look at underlying core, it has improved versus Q1 24. So that reflects rate continuing to earn through, continued market discipline, We've seen continued improvement in theft trends and that sort of stuff. So I think we feel confident about that. We've got a good line of sight on future rate filings that we've planned, allowing us to navigate inflation and loss trends and continue to move forward with our ambition. So I think it's a good result, but drawing comparisons is always challenging, particularly just based on one quarter of data. Thanks, Larissa.

Just a quick follow-up. There were issues with auto theft. Are those now largely done, or do you still see that continuing?

Yeah, much improved. Um, so, you know, I think we, we continue to see, um, that, that, that improve. Um, I mean, it, it's slightly above longer term average, but it's significantly below 23 and the first half of 24, you know, we, as well as many of our competitors have taken steps to address that. You know, we've got the tagging that we talked about before, um, you know, offering free discounted installations for high vehicles. on comprehensive coverages, you know, so there's a whole range of different things. A lot of it was about awareness, but, you know, I think we're in a good place on that now. It's much, much, much reduced.

Thank you so much.

Thanks, Larissa.

Thank you. Our next caller is Stephen Hayward from HSBC. Your line is now unmuted. Please go ahead.

Good morning. Thank you very much. Two questions from me. Firstly, on Ireland, I know it's a small business, but it's obviously quite important this quarter after a big storm came through. I see that your reinsurance retention is around a million euros here, and I think that the market, the storm around or about 10% of that. So it's not quite getting into your reinsurance cover. Is that correct? And, you know, this is a one in 40 storm event. Is a one in 40 reinsurance cover adequate going forward? And secondly, on your BPA, I hear that you're saying that it's going to be sales this year versus last year. But could you give an indication of of your expected yearly amount of BPA sales for this year potentially?

Thanks. Look, I think, as you say, it was a big storm, biggest hit one in 40 years. Market estimates are around 300 euros, 300 million euros, and that is significant. As you say, our market share is around 10%. And so you can sort of roughly size what we're talking about. I mean, I think we are at the retention level for Ireland now, which is 30 million euros. So, you know, what we've reflected, even though there are still some claims coming through, we would kind of hit our retention level. We wouldn't expect further losses from that. If anything, we might see recoveries coming through. So I think we have got the right... specific cover for Ireland there. And then in terms of BPA volumes, I think we guided at the full year that, you know, the sort of 15 to 20 over a three year period, you know, as we'd seen in the previous three year was the right way to think about it, but not being in the sevens that we saw in that particularly elevated period of 24. So, you know, I think more in that you know, a third of 15 to 20, but also recognizing that some years, some of the biggest schemes get delayed or they come forward. And so, you know, actually, you know, the market is lumpy and it can vary. And we will, as always, be incredibly disciplined because we have many other places to use our capital. So our objective is always to hit the hurdle rates for IRRs and, you know, good IRRs and the capital strain that we use and optimize, particularly the Aviva investors, ability to access good assets to back them. So that's what you'll see us do. We'll be disciplined. So some months, some periods will be greater than others. Thanks, Stephen. Thank you very much.

Thank you. Our next caller is Andrew Crean from Autonomous. Your line is now unmuted. Please go ahead.

Morning, Andrew. Hi, Andrew.

can't hear you i don't know if you're on mute either andrew we cannot hear you so we will move to the next caller which is nasib ahmed from ubs your line is now unmuted please go ahead uh thanks morning um so a couple of questions on workplace and one on liquidity

On Workplace, you lost the scheme in 2023. Is there any feedback that you've got? And just generally, what are the pension schemes mostly looking at when they're choosing a provider? And then the second question is around margins in Workplace. It is a competitive market. You gave a margin, a net margin of around 9 to 10 basis points at the InFocus day. Has that margin compressed? And that's the admin margin. And what are you earning in the Viva investors, given 70% of the AUM is going into Viva investors. And then the second question on liquidity, Charlotte, you said there's 1.8 billion ring fans for DarkLine, 400 million from the center. Is the other 1.4 billion

OK, let's see, we can't hear.

I think we probably got most of it.

Yeah, I think we got most of it. Shall I do the workplace one and Charlotte, you can do the liquidity one. So I think, so just on workplace, maybe give a bit of sort of background. So the scheme in question was lost in 2023. Charlotte gave you the numbers, you know, to the end of April and we did that obviously deliberately so that you can see that this was effectively a one-off in the number. So what are scheme sponsors looking for? Obviously, they're looking for a trusted brand, they're looking for a seamless process, they're looking for excellent service, they're looking for various fund availability, whether that's ESG or other allocation. From our perspective, that particular scheme, and obviously we can't say too much detail, but the pricing was so competitive that we did not want to administer a scheme where the margins would be that thing. So, um, so we made a decision, um, to, uh, that we wouldn't compete that. So to, to, to, to say that obviously that takes time then for that scheme to come out. And then in April, we've, we've run another, we'd run another large scream some time ago, which came into the numbers. Um, we remain the number one player in the market. We've won around 135 schemes this quarter alone. Our win rate on schemes is 76% and our retention rate on schemes is 95%. So I think what that shows you is that we are making, as in general insurance, we're making calls around being disciplined around our pricing. And that's what you've seen here, but it isn't stopping our ability to be able to win a schemes. And you see that we have now on both platforms, the advisor and workplace around 200 billion of flows. of AUM, and we're seeing really, really good momentum there. So we're not going to talk about the margin compression and those sort of things here too much. But what we would say, and we'll reiterate, and maybe Charlotte will come back, is that we're on track to achieve the 280 million of our profit, which obviously a big contributor of that is workplace and the advisor sector. And on the AI earnings, again, we're not going to break that down.

Charlotte? Yeah, so all I was just going to say is you're correct that back in the Wealth in Focus session, back in 23, we talked about operating margin of around 10 points, revenue of about 30. When I look back at the 24 numbers, they're very much still in line with that. So, yes, you do see some, but we're still tracking in line with that. And as you say, and as Amanda reiterated, that's the piece that comes into the IWR business. It's the most material component of the profit, and it's the platform administration fee. But a significant amount of flows do go into Aviva Investor Solutions, and there we do earn a fund management fee as well. So there is an additional revenue component that comes there. It's, as you would expect, quite a lot smaller than the platform fee. And I think, although I don't know, are you back on now, Naseeb, or is your connection completely dropped? Well, I'll answer what I think was your question, which was of the 1.8 billion that we have now segregated to complete the cash component, the DLG transaction. Where did it come from? It was special remittances coming through from the businesses, primarily those. Yeah, so it was it was specifically for that purpose and outside of the regular remittances which remain on track. OK. We still got anyone or is it all the connection dropped?

Thank you. Our next caller is William Hawkins from KBW. Your line is now unmuted. Please go ahead.

Hi, Amanda. Hello, Charlotte. Thank you very much. Hello. Can I just be clear, please? What was the percentage point weather impact in the 96.6 undiscounted combined ratio? I just want to be clear in my mind. I think 4% is your normal annual figure. And so I'm just trying to get clear, you know, whether we're still comfortably on track for that for the rest of the year, or if we should already be nervous that the level of losses in the first quarter has put the normal budget at risk. And then secondly, please, could you also just maybe be clear about the percentage point impact of prior year reserve development? I'm not sure from what you said about the Canadian tariff adjustments, is that implying that that's a negative PYD in Canada, or it might be taking another line elsewhere? And if it is, does that mean you've had a small negative PYD at the group level, or is there something offsetting it? And then thirdly, please, the individual annuity growth is massive. Congratulations. I've got in my mind that, you know, this is a business that over time is growing 5% to 10%, not the north of 30% you've just printed. I just wanted, again, you know, get my own expectations kind of framed for the future. You know, what do you think is sustainable relative to that 30% for the full year and looking beyond? Thank you.

Okay, Charlotte, do you want to pick up the first one, pick up the second? Yes. So look, William, as usual on core, we don't provide all of that details in a training update Q1. You'll see that all at the half year, which is a full analysis of a full six months of data. That said, looking at the weather overall, it's definitely an abnormal amount of weather in the quarters for both Ireland and Canada. And when I compare that to Q124, which was relatively benign, so you're seeing quite a swing compared to long-term averages. So yes, we talk about four points annually, but we load different quarters differently, you know, because it doesn't, it's according to where we expect the weather to be. So long-term averages in a particular quarter will be different to the four points per se. I would just say it's always tough when you start the year and you have them in the first quarter. Even April and March have been much better. So I think we still believe that we're loading and pricing for the right amount of weather and across the year it will be reasonable. But as you would expect, we're always updating our models to reflect the claims, trends and experience And, you know, the budget itself, while we talk about in points terms, it's increased with the portfolio growth. So, you know, I think we feel confident that we've got sufficient weather loading and we're pricing accordingly. You know, we're quite specific now in Canada on pricing in the CAP regions in particular. On independent,

I think the question was India. I can pick that up. So on individual annuities, obviously we've seen really good growth in this quarter. I think that that comes off suppressed growth last year because we were building our operational capability to be able to deal with the volumes that are coming in. So I think what you should expect is that that that does come back somewhat towards the end of the year, albeit that the growth will still be strong. So we're not going to give you an exact number, but we will still see growth strong. So, you know, I think that we were seeing, you know, we have seen about a 50% increase in terms of our ability to be able to deal with applications versus what we were able to deal with at the beginning of 2024. That got better through 2024. And then, you know, so obviously you're comparing a very good quarter in 2015 with a quarter in 2024 where operational capability was constrained. But I think, you know, it is a product which people are buying, people want to buy. It is part of their decumulation and it's an important part of that decumulation. And therefore, it's really great for us that we actually were able to bring our operational capability up to the levels that we wanted to. So that's good investment in the business. in systems and people.

I'm sorry, William, you also asked about Canadian PYD. Again, I'm not going to break it out, but there was usual in it.

Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Our next caller is Andrew Crean from Autonomous. Your line is now unmuted. Please go ahead. Hello, can you hear me now?

Ah, yes, hooray. You got me? Hi, Andrew.

Great. Sorry, I wasn't muted the last time. I don't know what went wrong. Three questions. Firstly, Nat Katz in Canada. Can you just tell us what the industry loss was and what your market share is? Then secondly, I wanted to ask you about targets. You said you're going to refresh your targets. Should we expect that in August? And as part of that, I noticed when you did the direct line deal, you said the direct line deal would improve your earnings per share, I think, by 10%. One of the things I notice is that direct line has its amortization of intangibles, about 100 million, within its operating line, whereas you take amortization below the line. So the question is, when you set the 10% EPS growth target from the deal, did that include do that exclude the movement of the amortization charge to below the line? Sorry, slightly complicated question. And then third question, I just want to go back to the annuity book and asset optimization, because from another couple of companies, we got a very different view as to what the annual impact of asset optimization is. Phoenix talk about 500 million. Legals talk about 200 million. Could you give us a sense as to what you expect asset optimization to do each year on your annuity block?

Okay, thanks. So, Charlotte, do you want to pick up one and three? I'll pick up the first bit of the targets, and then you can answer the second bit. So, let's start. Should we start? Maybe we should start with targets. Oh, I'd love to do the amortization bit, but I wouldn't want to embarrass you, Charlotte.

On the NatCats in Canada, I actually don't have the industry estimates to hand. As I said, they were quite concentrated in Ontario, where our market share is... is concentrated, but it is in line with our market share of it. So, yeah, I don't have that to hand, sorry. Then do you want to talk more generally about targets?

Yeah, so on targets more generally, so obviously just to sort of remind everyone, we set the new three-year group targets at the full year results presentation back in March last year. And we are obviously confident that the standalone business is on track to achieve those targets. So that's all good. Once the DLG acquisition closes, we will come back to you with how the acquisition will impact those existing targets. Clearly, DLG will accelerate our pivot towards capital light, so it's going to contribute operating profit, OFG, and cash incremental to those existing targets. And we're very focused obviously on that. As we get closer, to achieving that, Andrew, we will look to set new targets for the group, given the change of the shape of the group. We will look at those target metrics being more closely aligned to our composite peers. So it's difficult to say when we'll have that conversation with you. I think it's unlikely to be August because, you know, complete mid-year but as soon after that as we can we will we will come back to you with that because we recognize that that is that's a really important thing to do and actually we're quite excited about doing that sort of you know if you like breaking into these new target metrics which are more closely aligned to the type of group that we are on the amortization point charlotte knock yourself out yes so look the 10 eps accretion that we gave

or guided to on the 23rd of December was very much based on standalone DLG business and the synergies that we expect. So, you know, the QFBS number of 125. We didn't at that stage make any alignment, you know, any assumptions on the alignment of accounting policies and there isn't really any update to give you on that today. When we complete and can look at the records directly, we will, of course, be looking at accounting policies and we can see what's in the public domain and some of our thoughts are already obviously developing. So that when we strike the acquisition balance sheet, it would be fair to assume that we will be looking to align policies there and make the whole thing more straightforward as we go forward. And there will be valuation differences and all sorts of other things that will come through as we strike that acquisition balance sheet, which will be really important. On the amortization point specifically, and just thinking about how that interplays with your 10%, when you acquire something, you create some intangibles. Often customer and client assets will be intangibles. that you need to bring onto the balance sheet. And they are things that amortize, so because they're separate from the goodwill. Those you would expect to go below the line, so outside of operating profit, as they amortize. Intangibles that are already on the balance sheet, so software, that type of thing, we will re-evaluate at the point of the acquisition balance sheet, and then it will start a new amortization profile based on that carrying value. there we would expect that that would go through, still go through operating profit. So there will still be an amortization. Now how that will compare with what you see in DLG will, as you say, depend on how we align periods and on what we amortize and what we don't. And it will also depend on that initial carrying value in the acquisition balance sheet. So there's quite a lot of variables to get through there. And those decisions are the only things that we'll finalise once we've completed the transaction. But taking up detail and stepping back from it, I think there are likely to be some offsetting items, but there could be some upside there as well. So we'll update you once we've actually completed and are in a position to understand exactly how to align policies, et cetera.

So the third question was around the annuity book and optimisation. And Andrew, you did break up just a little bit. Can you just repeat that question so we make sure we answer it correctly?

Yes. Other companies have got very different targets for asset optimisation of their annuity books. So Phoenix talks about 500 million. I think Legals talks about 200 million off a much bigger book. I just wanted to get a sense to what your expectation for asset optimisation actions each year are.

Yeah, so look, I think they're very, again, without talking about other people's policies, you know, you have definitions of management actions that differ across different companies. And their questions, their definition, if you look and you compare it to ours, is more extensive. And so they sort of actually target that and go after it. So that's a little bit different from us, where if you read our annual report, we basically say, in the director's view, they should be excluded in order to understand the underlying performance. That doesn't make them any less valuable. It's just how we look at it. So we do go after those types of management actions. You've heard us talk about the guidance of 200 million a year, and that will be assumptions and other management actions that drive capital generation from the balance sheet. And we absolutely see as part of that how we manage um you know the the assets that are allocated to the to the unity book so it is something that we're actively doing um i think it's just a little bit how how different companies sort of put prominence to to those things really but that you know ultimately it does drive for us as well capital generation yeah you should look at the definitions though i think that's where we point you to andrew thank you thank you

Thank you. The final caller we have time for today is Dom O'Mahony from BNP Paribas Exane. Your line is now unmuted. Please go ahead.

Thanks for taking questions. So just to go back to the UK, if that's all right. And I thought the top line here was very impressive. And that just prompted two questions for me. The first was just on the personal side, it looks like partnerships delivered most of the growth, if I've understood correctly. I think that implies extremely strong growth within the partnership portfolio. Could you help us unpack that a bit? I know that nationwide travel is in there now. I wonder if you could explain what else is in there, what's driving that? And also, nationwide home, as I understand it, came online early this year. How big could that be for the full year? How much of that contributed, if any, in one queue? Just on the commercial side, I think, as you explained it, pricing on the large stuff is slightly tougher than on the little and the small stuff. Your growth, I think, was the other way around, that you were doing volume in GCS ex-Profitas and price in SME, if I've understood correctly. Where was that volume in GCS coming from in terms of products? And then, I guess, a related question on that. We've seen some of your other peers do more gross, but re-insure more. Is the bridge to gross to net normal for you this period, or is there more utilization? And if I can ask just one more question, and again, apologies, it's still the UK. I just want to understand the message on the combined ratio development. Charlotte, I think you said that the Q1 written core supported underlying positive development, which is very welcome. If I just compare the 1Q combined ratio of about 95 undiscounted with the core last year, that is a couple of points, I think, higher, give or take, than the full year. Is that just what we should expect? I understand the impact of pricing and margins normalising in retail. Is that sort of a good read for the year? Thank you.

Okay. There's a lot in there. We'll do our very best. There's a lot of detail in there.

Yes, there is.

Sorry. So I'm not sure that we'll be able to give you all the detail, but we'll give you as much as we can, okay? So in terms of personal lines, UK grew by 6%. That was, as Charlotte said in her opening remarks, supported by growth in intermediated companies. which does include the travel partnership with Nationwide. So that has been a good part of that growth. In terms of the home partnership, that hasn't started coming through in the numbers yet. So there's no benefit from that being seen in those numbers. And in terms of the retail volume, I think, again, as Charlotte said, we have grown retail volume, but the average premium has come down and they sort of net off they net off against each other. I think your next question was around GCS growth. where we are seeing growth coming from the Probitas integration and the fact that that has come through. And I think that's about £77 million of the gross written premiums. Look, I'm not going to tell you where we're winning individual deals, but we have won a number of individual deals because of that dual platform. Charlotte, do you have a bit more to add on that?

Yeah, just in GCS, I mean, I think we see... in the sort of the CS part of GCS or the commercial piece, new business wins across property and motor. I think in specialty, it's been wins in construction and renewables. And then, you know, down in the sort of more mid-market or SME, we've been benefiting there from continued rate with good growth across, I would say, the smaller digital end of the market and in mid-market. So we trade across the whole platform and we're always super disciplined and prioritize profits and rate adequacy. So you'll kind of see us trading where we can achieve that objective. So those are some of the areas that we've seen that are outside of the 77 million from Probitas. And then, you know, I do think there are really nice examples of where, because we've now got Probitas, we're being shown business that perhaps neither we nor Probitas saw in the past. And that's particularly interesting as well. So lots of little examples, but I think you'll see that further develop over the year. And then I think just on combined, I mean... You know, I think it is a message of we are seeing the pricing coming through and driving underlying improvements. And as I look through to the profitability forecast that we've got for the first half, you know, I can see that, you know, all of that strong rating and discipline continues to improve the underlying. And, you know, Ultimately, we are looking, and nobody's asked me today, about the sub-94 core, but it is still the main aiming point, and we still believe in it. But, you know, we're also just focused on driving economic business and driving forward to optimize operating profit. So, but I think, you know, good indications on the way the underlying needs to develop. So I'm positive about that.

OK, so I think that's the end of the call. It was only a trading update, but you managed to keep us busy for an hour. So thank you for that. There's a lot of detail in there. So, you know, obviously, if you need to follow up with the IR team after the call, then please do. But thank you very much for joining the call and we'll see you all soon.

Thank you. This now concludes our conference call. Thank you all for attending. You may now disconnect your lines.