Axa Sa Ord

Good morning and welcome to ACCESS 9-month-24 Activity Indicators conference call.

A group CO4 out on the mind now will walk through the highlights of the 9-month release, after which we'll be ready to take your questions, but then I turn it over to Al. Thank you, Anu. Good morning to all of you and thank you for joining the call today. So I will start with the key highlights of 9-month-24. So we delivered another excellent performance with total revenues increasing by 7%. We continue to see strong organic growth across all our lines of business, with P&C up 7% and life and health also up 7%. And this is very much in line with what we delivered in 1H. by a combination of discipline, pricing, and accessories, notably, as you know, in PNC retail and in UK Health. It's also improved customer retention and market share gains. So the environment remains supportive with prices up, which will be earned through next year while inflation is lower. And this is exactly what we had in our plan that we presented to you in February. So we are focused on executing our growth agenda across our organization. And growth is a key leader of our new plan. On one side, our focus on technical and operations excellence. And lastly, we continue to operate at a high level of capital with a sovereignty ratio of 20 and 21%. In the quarter, the group's financial strength was further affirmed by the decision from Moody's to raise the waiting outlook of the group to a positive. Let me now go through the key numbers of the increase, starting with P&C. P&C revenues were up 7%, well-balanced between commercial and personal lines. Commercial lines grew by 7%, and if you're both driven by favorable price effects, and higher volumes from improved retention, notably at AXAXL, and higher in the business with sustained demand from corporates. If I focus on pricing, at AXAXL insurance, prices were up 2% on the euros, or 3% if we exclude North America professional lines. Overall, for 2024, we expect pricing, including exposure, to be broadly aligned with loss trends. And this is consistent with our plan assumptions, which assume margin being stable at the current attractive levels, driven by selective growth, disciplined cycle management, and efficiency initiatives. Similar to 1H24, pricing trends varied line by line, and we are managing the cycle proactively. We see, for instance, continued favorable pricing in shorter lines, plus 8% in North America property, plus 5% in international property. Casualty pricing is forming in line with last year's. with plus 9% in U.S. casualty and plus 5% in international casualty. And in North America professional loans, pricing remains soft, and we therefore remain focused on profitability. In firms in Europe selling commercial loans, we continue to see favorable pricing at plus 4% in both geographies, which is at a good level in the context of lower inflation. And as I said, we also continue to see good demand from corporates across SMEs and mid-market business. Moving to P&C personal lines, revenues were up 6%, with growth in both motor and non-motor up 5% and 8% respectively. Pricing remains strong at plus 11%. It's up across all countries, but as you know, in particular in the UK and in Germany, where we are prioritizing pricing over volumes to restore profitability. The volume is down, therefore, in those two countries, and that reflects our underwriting and pricing measures. But a large part of the pooling, and the size is not behind us, And in other countries, such as France, Switzerland, or Italy, where we do not need such repatriation, we see strong net new contracts. So we are confident in achieving our margin improvement plan. And if you remember, we already saw 1.7 points margin recovery in 1H24 in personal lines versus 1H23. Finally, in reinsurance, revenues were up 10%. driven by both favorable price effects in property and casualty, and higher volumes in specialty and property. One last point in PNC on NADCAT, so you probably have seen in our press release that the combined impact of Hurricane Helen in September and Hurricane Milton in October was below 200 million euros, free tax, and net of insurance. Based on the current industry loss estimates, it represents a market share of approximately 0.5%, and that reflects the actions that we took to reduce cat exposure and volatility over the past years. And therefore, we are maintaining our annual net cat budget of 4.5 points of combined ratio for the year. I now move to life and health. In life, premiums were up 7%. Capital my GA savings, it was up 12%, notably in Japan from strong sales of single premium whole life products, which was supported by favorable market conditions, and in Italy and Belgium from the successful launch of new products. Strong performance in Munich, England, up 14%, driven by the successful commercial campaigns across our distribution network in both Italy and France. Protection was also up plus 2%, notably from higher sales in protection with Uniclinked in Japan and S4Cent. And lastly, premiums in traditional GA savings were up 1%. In health, premiums increased by 7%, reflecting higher pricing on both group and individual businesses across all geographies, as well as higher volumes in group business in France and in Europe. In the UK, we continue to take pricing actions, which will be earned over time, and we have been rigorously implementing claims pathways to triage claims to manage claims costs. Overall, our EB business, which is one of our key growth initiatives, was up 8% over the first nine months. And then net flows. There were 0.9 billion euros year-to-date compared to minus 2.9 billion euros last year. And those net flows also reflect our quality mix and the focus we have on protection, health, and capital by GF. Moving on to new business, so Life & Health, PV&P, and MBV were up 16.6% respectively, and that was not attributable to good volume growth that I just mentioned. MBV margin was slightly down at 4.6 points, which was last year, And that mostly mangled 1H level. And fundamentally, that reflects the change in business mix and financial assumptions that we had over the first nine months. So overall, our business mix in life and health remains of high quality. Asset management now. Average AUM was up 3%, reflecting favorable market effects. Net flows were at 3 billion euros, positive, driven by accident insurance companies and our Asian JVs. Revenues were up 6% from higher management fees due to an increased asset base and higher performance fees, partly offset by lower transaction fees. Moving on to our balance sheet and Solvency II in particular. So our Solvency ratio was at 221% at the end of September, down six points from the first half, and that comes mainly from unfavorable market effects. So if we look at the details, as the previous quotas, we had seven points from normalized capital generation, minus 5 points of accrued foreseeable dividends and annual share buybacks. We had minus 6 points from financial markets. That reflects lower interest rates and widening of government spreads, notably the OIT, and corporate spreads in Europe. And even if equity markets were up this quarter, the equity market impact was neutral, given our skew towards infra and private equity, where valuations have been fairly stable. And we had minus one point from the effect of an anti-dilutive share buyback related to employee share-based compensation, and that's a runoff. So to conclude, we believe those are very good numbers overall with continued good growth momentum. In particular, pricing remains favorable, and that will be earned through next year, while inflation will be lower. And this is in language data. This is driven by high-quality and diversified businesses, which are well-positioned to capture attractive growth opportunities and to deliver a predictable earnings trajectory. So we are executing on that plan with a clear roadmap across top-line growth and technical and operational excellence. So as indicated in 1H, with all those pieces of good news, we remain confident to achieve for 2024 an underlying earnings per share growth in line with our three-year plan target, which is a range of 6% to 8%. And now we are available for your questions.

Thank you, sir. This is the conference operator. Operator, excuse me. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and 1 on the touchtone telephone. To remove yourself from the question queue, please press star and 2. Please pick up the receiver when asking questions. The first question comes from David Barma of BOA.

Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Firstly, on the NATCAT, so it's reassuring to see that your exposure to the hurricane is contained. but we've had a lot of weather events in Europe recently, in particular in France, in Spain, and in Italy. Are you saying you're on track for 4.5% including those events, or is that assuming a normal quarter for Q4? Secondly, on life and health and the new business margin, which was quite a bit lower both in life and in health, especially in the Europe segment, Could you explain what the drivers were for this? And also the third quarter new business margin in health was seasonally strong in Q3 in previous years, so maybe there's an element there. And then lastly, on the U.S. commercial lines, one of your peers was reporting an acceleration in commercial lines pricing in Q3, excluding professional lines, with prices now ahead of lost trends. So could you give us a bit more color on where you're seeing conditions improve and where you're not? Thank you. Thank you, David, for your questions.

So on that gap, the short answer is yes. When we say that we believe we are in line with our 4.5 points of combined ratio budget, that includes the recent events that we had in Europe, South of France, Italy, and most probably what we had over the last days in Spain. Two comments about this. One is, as you may remember, we increased our cap budget from 4% to 4.5%, and that's precisely because we wanted to take into account so-called secondary barriers, which may be secondary in terms of amounts and are clearly not secondary for the people affected. And second comment, Those events are extremely local. They are intense, but extremely local. And so when you compare that to hurricanes in Florida, for instance, the cost for us is a fraction of what the hurricanes could be. So, yes, that's become into account in both our budget and the fact that we said that we should be in line with our proposed 5% budget. Only... New business margin, so your rent is down roughly 50 bps. It's mainly due to two impacts. The first one is business mix, and that's roughly 20 basis points of the 50 basis points. And the business mix, it's a number of things. It's the fact that you saw that certain firms were up quite significantly, but the overall NBV margin in France is slightly lower, so that puts pressure on our NBV margin. Conversely, in Switzerland, we saw a bit less, and that's higher margin. And same in Japan, notably on the health side, sales in Japan were down. and the business mix in the time was not good. By the way, we believe it will be better in Q4, and therefore we should see an improvement in our margin in Q4. So that's the first part of the explanation. The other part of the explanation... for another 20 bps, roughly, is the financial assumptions with interest rates in particular. And so that explains also the health impact that you mentioned. On commercial loans in the U.S., so our view is that if you decide North America professional, we are in line with last trend, which means that we do see an acceleration in pricing in some lines, such as casualty, exactly as we said for Ramage, where we saw that the slide picked up in casualty last trend, and prices are adjusting accordingly. Property prices are still up. And more than in Europe, we're talking about 7% or 8% price increases in property in the U.S. But I wouldn't go as far as saying that we see an increase in our margins and our prices. It does last for those lines.

I believe it's in line. Thank you, Erdogan.

The next question is from Farouk Hanif of J.P. Morgan.

Hi, thank you very much, everybody. Just given the answer to the question you've just given, can you talk about your visibility around your 200 basis points combined ratio P&C improvement target, given that you've got there very, very quickly already compared to 3.23? What scope do you see of exceeding that target? That's question one. Question two is, what signs are you seeing of any personal lines pricing tailing off in 3Q, not just the UK, which we know is coming down, but in other markets? And last question, three, is the growth rate in health outside of Europe has been very, very strong. Can you kind of highlight some markets there and what you see as kind of potential momentum next year in those markets?

Thank you, Farouk. I would say on the emerging improvement in P&C, we are in line. In the sense that, to some extent, I'm not saying it was easy, but in 2024, the plan was to have a recovery in margin in the UK and Germany, and we are well on track for that. And then getting further improvements, that's working on our expenses and working on a day-to-day incremental improvement in our pricing, in our underwriting, claims management, and so on. So I would say we are in line. We believe we can deliver those 200 bps, but you saw that at Excel. Exactly as we thought, the margin will remain flat-ish. We don't see an improvement in margin in the coming year. We will see that in both personal lines and commercial lines in Europe, but that will lead most probably to the 200 dips that we had planned for. On personal line pricing, look, I would say, as you pointed out, in the UK it's softening. It's not softening anywhere else. And I would even say that in some geographies, prices could go up slightly next year, notably for two reasons. One is you saw an increase in frequency at the beginning of the year. Then it... It improved, but frequency was not that good at the end of the year for anyone, and that was due really to rain. And the second thing is, in a number of countries, I'm thinking of Spain, for instance, you still have players that need to increase prices to recover profitability. So I guess outside the UK, the market is still supportive. Your third question was on growth in health. What do we see in France and in Europe? Because I guess that was your question. In France, it's driven by pricing research. There is also volume, and not to be on the employee benefit side, but there are price increases because we need to improve the profitability of our book in France. If you remember that on our plan, we said we would grow e-commerce business by 6%, but that we would improve margins by 300 bps. Out of those 300 bps, is the recovery that we're on track with in the UK, but the rest is, as I said, better pricing, better underwriting. And that's what we see in France and in Europe.

And my question actually was more on outside of Europe, the great... I mean, we can come back to that. Oh, sorry.

So when you look at the table where you have... 13% growth outside of Europe. I guess that's what you're referring to. Yes. Exactly. So that is very much driven by international markets. So not Asia, but more Mexico. You know that health in Mexico is a very important line. It's our largest line. And we are a leader there. And growth in Mexico in health was around 15%. But we also had growth in Turkey. So obviously there is a high inflation in Turkey, so that's a post-growth. But we almost doubled our health premiums in Turkey over the first nine months. So those were the drivers of that growth.

Thank you. The next question, sir, is from Andrew Baker of Goldman Sachs.

Thank you for taking my questions. First one is just on P&C top-line growth expectations. I know you've sort of given the 5% expectations across the planning period. You're clearly tracking ahead of that so far. So as we think about the growth, top-line growth in 25 and 26, should we expect some normalization below the 5% level, or is that 5% growth still a good working assumption for those years? Secondly, on personalized, are you able just to give some what you're thinking in terms of the German motor renewals that are coming up? And then finally, just on tax, again, I know you've previously said that the tax changes in France are very manageable. Now you've got a bit more color there. Are you able to give any guidance on the impact on the group tax rate? Thank you.

Thank you, Andrew. So on the top line, I think that's PMC. P&A in 2024, we had a very good year, notably because there was still inflation, and that allowed us to have a 7% growth I described earlier. That being said, our plan is to grow our business in P&C. Minimum GDP plus 1%. So we believe that 4% or 5%, depending on whether it's retail or commercial lines, is achievable. And that's a myth of still some price increases, not everywhere, but still in most places, because we do have still inflation, notably in the U.S., and good volume growth, because we believe we are well-positioned. We believe there is no demand and we are increasing retention. And that's very important. On Excel, for instance, we have increased retention by four points. And that's the easiest and best growth that you can think of because that's with customers that you know and that are profitable. So we believe we can still deliver the 4% to 5% top line growth that we are planning for in 2025. Personal lines. Look, I think as far as we're concerned, we've done the job. We've increased prices by 17% or 18%. The book is profitable. So we'll be back to normal prices. increases in 25. For the whole market, I noticed that some players are still not very profitable, and it might well be that they will increase prices further, which would allow us to gain market share. We need to see that. On tax controls, it's very difficult to comment precisely what will happen. not because of us, but because of the current legislative process. The way it works, and if you give me two minutes to describe it, is when government doesn't have absolute majority in parliament, at the end of the day, it's very unlikely that everything which is voted by the parliament will go through. What happens is that the government, at the end of the process, brings what it believes to be the best compromise, and submits it to the Parliament with an article of the Constitution called 49.3. And that budget is deemed accepted unless there is a motion of non-confidence voted by the Parliament, in which case the government needs to resign. And therefore, everything which is voted now has little impact until we know which will be submitted with that 49.3 article in a few weeks. Nevertheless, what we believe is that the impact for us will be limited for the following reasons. One, France is roughly 25% of our business and our profits. Two, in France we have both the access France profits, but we also have the debt at holding level and the interest we pay on that debt compensate a very, very significant part of the taxable income of AXA France. So overall, I don't believe that the taxes that might be implemented in France will affect our earnings standard that we have for our plan.

Very clear. Thank you.

The next question comes from Michael Hutner of Barenburg.

Thank you so much, and congratulations on the Learn That Cat. I was going to ask the other way, but obviously you've answered all that. The first one is on the capital generation, so 16 points at the half year, 7 in Q3. So if I had another 7, I'd get to 30, which is the top end of your guidance range, and I was just wondering whether you can say whether that's a new number we can use going forward, given that... You're really delivering on track. There's very little volatility. And then the other question is, I think you kind of answered it, but I don't know, maybe I'd be lucky. So 7% seems to be the magic top-line number. I know you're saying 5% going forward. Momentum in insurance makes me believe maybe... Seven could continue. And you have, in terms of underlying EPS, the figure is six to eight. But given that you have buybacks, which kind of add another 1%, and there's lots of operating leverage things going on, my guess is the seven would normally translate in at least 9%. And I just wonder whether you can maybe comment on that. You'll probably say no next year or something. I don't know. And then the last one is on U.K. health. I detect a slowdown or slight reticence here relative to what I had hoped, not what you'd said, but what I'd hoped, you know, all the actions which you've already taken. It seems it's a much slower process. Maybe you could comment on that. Thank you.

Thank you, Michael. I kept the generation. We gave a range. It was 25 to 30 points. So I agree with you. We are on track to be at the upper end of that range. And it might be. Let's wait for the last quarter. I would just like to highlight that Typically, the first half is better than the second half. There is always seasonality, notably when it comes to investment income. But, yeah, we might well be at the upper end of our range. On DGPS, you gave me the opportunity to spend one second on the buyback that we made in Q3, which is a pure runoff in the sense that We gave performance shares to some of our employees, a significant portion of our employees, but we hadn't hedged that systematically, automatically. So it's a bit of a catch-up. in the current chart engine, and therefore the buyback that we did in Q3. So the one point, you shouldn't expect it to be replicated every year, that we will do buybacks, not for that, but not to that extent. Now, being really above the 6% to 8% range, I believe we are on track to be in the range, And I think that's a strong message we want to give, which is that we're confident with that range, and I don't believe it should be expected to be above.

And you can't help? Oh, sorry. Sorry, Michael.

No, I don't know whether you think that it's a slow process. I mean, we are exactly on track with our plan. As we said, we would be... we would be back to good profitability in 2025, and that's where we'll be. We're going to have to change our processes, adjust the pricing, and so we're good. I don't believe there was any slowing down, but if you saw something that I didn't cover.

Lovely. Thank you.

The next question is from Will Hardcastle of UBS.

Oh, hi there. Thanks for taking the question. It's just one. Is there anything you can say on lapse experience in the quarter? Is that possible? Thank you. Yes.

So, the good thing about low interest rates is that it's Less of a competition for savings products. So what you see is lapses that have come down in the two countries that were most affected, as you know, were France and Italy. In France, that has come down very significantly. Still in Italy, on general account, what is still a bit high is lapses on Uniclint in Italy. That's the reason also why we have net outflows in the first nine months, and that's something that we need to be vigilant on.

The next question is from William Hopkins of KBW.

Hi, Alban. Thank you for taking my questions. You have a couple of follow-up on the NatCats, I'm afraid, but it is amazing how your losses have improved. I was rereading the 3Q19 press release, and, yeah, your severity experience has improved significantly. So in that context, can you just tell me the 200 million you're referring to, what's the gross versus the net on that number, please? Because I'm trying to get a sense of whether this small figure is because exposure is down dramatically or because you've been clever in the protection that you've brought. And then secondly, you've already commented on the budget, but can I just be clear, how much of the 4.5% is left untouched at the end of the nine months, please? And then lastly, just a different topic, on Solvency II, when we're looking to the outlook, can you just refresh my memory on what we're expecting from the benefits of the Solvency II reform, please? I can't remember the timeline, and I'm presuming it's going to be a positive impact, but I just wonder if you could update me on how big that positive impact may be, please. Thank you.

Thank you, William. So on the 11 million, the 200 million, fundamentally it's exposure, it's not sessions, it's not reinsurance, simply because, as you know, we have reduced our exposures at XRV. where retrocessions are unlimited, but also at Excel Insurance. We reduce the exposures there in Florida. And you know that for the last two years, the attachment points offered by insurance have increased significantly. And therefore, the insurance coverage or the insurance benefits are limited. And so that's really the exposure that has come down, much more than smart insurance, as I think you put it. On the 4.5 to 7, what is left untouched? So we don't give the number. I would just say that... we are on track to get there. We need to see how Q4 will develop. But I would also point out that you know that we want to manage as much as possible NAPCAT, BYDs, and discount. So, to put it a bit If we have a good catnip here, you might see a bit less DOID release, and therefore you shouldn't expect significant uplift there. And on Solvency II, so the benefits will come at the very end of 2026. Today we know what the Level 1 is about. The Level 2 is still to be designed by the Commission of Smith and Beirut. It will be a positive in terms of group sovereignty. Difficult to say how much. What I want to highlight as well, but it will be visible, but what I want to highlight as well is that It will be a positive and good level. But we calculate the solvency on all our entities, including the ones that are not under Solvency II locally, Excel, Switzerland, Japan, Hong Kong. So the cash impact coming from Solvency II will be more limited as there will be a little change, no change at all, on the local ability in those countries to upstream more capital.

I think that's important to add that, isn't it? Thank you.

The next question comes from Dominic O'Mahony of BNP Paribas.

Hello, and thanks for taking our questions. One specific question. Thank you for the color on Germany. It's good to hear, as I understand it, that that's absolutely where it should be from a number of perspectives. Can I also just ask about Switzerland? I mean, it sounds from what you're saying like Actually, Switzerland, you're happy with the underwriting performance. You're not in remediation mode. I just wanted to confirm that that's right and gets any further colour you have on the Swiss business and the trading conditions. My second question is a bit looser. Just reflecting on what you've been saying about conditions in global commercial, and I guess in particular North America commercial, I think the message is that excluding financial lines Actually, pricing is pretty good. There's no sign of things turning. I suppose my question is, financial lines have been difficult. And I just wanted to get your diagnosis of why financial lines have been difficult. And I guess related to that, why do you think that the rest of the business, I guess the property sector, side in particular, and specialty side, why you're not wide about deterioration there. I hope that wasn't too loose, but thank you in advance for your answer. Thank you.

Thank you very much. So on the first question on Switzerland, Switzerland is mainly one of our best companies, and we are a leader in that market, and it's a very profitable business. So we are by no means in a mitigation way. We are growing. We will have... I mean, we're looking to have price increases as is normal to cover changes in frequency, inflation, and so on, but nothing which would be needed if we were an organization. We're fine with it. And your second question on professional lines versus the rest, I would say the following. On professional lines, our I guess two differences. The first one is inflation is perhaps less apparent than social inflation in casualty and basic inflation in property and short-term loans. And therefore, there is a lot of discipline in casualty, as you noticed. I say that The last one has picked up a bit, and immediately prices have come up as well. So we don't see that in financial loans, but I guess that will come. But let's remember as well that professional loans two or three years ago were extremely profitable, which has never been the case for property integrity, where we have a good level of profitability, but not at that kind of level. The other aspect, I think, is the market was disrupted with the drop in the number of IPOs and SPACs. Those operations created a lot of demands for professional lines, and that keeps prices up. So that demand reduced, and at the same time, you had a few newcomers to the market that saw the very high profitability, and we wanted to take advantage of that, and reduced, and that's with pressure on private. And that's the dynamic that you don't see in the other lines. So, for me, that's the reason why we have a specific momentum, specific dynamics on the professional lines. But then, at some point, price decreases need to stop, and we, as a leader in that area, In that line of business, we want to lead the effort.

Thank you, Albon.

The next question comes from Andrew Crean of Autonomous.

Good morning, Albon. Three questions. One, a numerical question. If rates stay where they are to year end, what will be the discounting impact on your underwriting versus the 3.7% last year? Secondly, you talked about Solvency II not benefiting upstreaming, but is there anything that you're doing in the next year or so to improve upstreaming? I'm thinking either of increasing the level of internal reinsurance of your P&C business up from the 25% or actions in, say, Germany, where I think there is trapped capital. And then thirdly, I wanted to ask about an issue, casualty reserving for more recent years, which has been highlighted by travelers in Hartford. Is that an issue for you, or do you think the delay in settlements is just because of jamming up the court system in the U.S. as opposed to showing signs that there's a deterioration in the underlying business? Thank you, Andrew.

So I can't answer directly because I don't know the number on the last point, but on the first point, which is the discount benefit, but you know that fundamentally 25 bids... decrease across the board, and that precision matters because obviously interest rate movements have not been the same depending on the currency, and that would be U.S. versus Europe. But 25 GIFs is 100 million impact for a full year on this kind of benefit. On the 7C2 upscaling, just to clarify what I said, I'm not saying it has zero impact, because obviously in Europe, in the European Union, personally, it will have an impact. I was more referring to the non-European entities that we have. Then, on your question of are we doing more to upstream capital, you know, we're always striving to do more, to be clear. On internal insurance in PNC, we moved this year to a 35% quota share instead of 25%. But we believe, given additional local constraints such as distributable reserves and local statutory amendments and so on, that 35% is probably an optimum and that we will not go further. But we might look at... other ways and other businesses to ensure that's yet to be confirmed. And you're right that in Germany, there's also something to watch there in terms of capital that could be outstripped. But it will not be massive when you compare that to the total remittance that XRSP gets. But yes, there's a bit to earn here and there. But I would say it's a normal effort that we have every year that contributes to making sure that the 80% remittance rate sure is reached. And to be very frank, in casualty, you know that we do... a valuation exercise twice a year. So we did it before, at the end of 1H, and you saw the result of that, which was that we didn't see an issue, but we are obviously vigilant on that. We will do the exercise at Q4 for full-year members. I would say, at this point in time, I think we now have accumulated a lot of experience I will repeat what I say every time, which is that I think we were among the first to detect the change in social inflation in the U.S., which led us through the reprovisioning and to the ODC. We saw the flag pickup that I mentioned earlier on the last turn in casualty. I think we are fine and we are up to date in our research, but we will confirm that with our Q4 exercise.

Thank you.

The next question is from Henry Helpfield of Morningstar.

Good morning, all. Thank you for taking my questions. Just going back to the impact from hurricanes, Helene and Milton, I was wondering if you could outline the 200 million expected claims that result from that weather, or actually whether you could outline the natural catastrophe impact incurred in Euro terms year-to-date to the end of the first nine months. And then with regard to the kind of Excel reinsurance business, I also noticed a small 100 million gross premiums on other revenue within life and health, and I was wondering if you're also writing life and health reinsurance as well as property and casualty.

Thank you.

So, on the first question, we don't disclose at Q3. UML figures and in particular the total amount of black cat losses that we've had to date. So I would just repeat what I said earlier on the fact that we are 3.6% at the end of the first half and we are in line, we are on track to be in line with our total budget of 4.5 points for the full year. And I want to tell you that we don't write life and health.

It's PNC insurance. Thank you.

The next question is from Pierre Chedeville of CIC.

Yes, good morning. Two questions. Regarding Italy, I recently read an interview from the CEO of Montepaschi, who was seriously considering the reintegration of insurance inside the bank. And I wanted to know if you had any discussion regarding that point with that bank. And regarding asset management, we can be a little bit disappointed by the net inflows with third parties. Could you explain that and what are your... views on that, even if you are selling AXA-IM. Thank you.

On the first question on Italy, I saw the same article, and I guess it's a global trend that we see in Europe coming from the British compromise that a number of banks will want to internalize their insurance duties when they have some. You know that the JV agreement comes to term in 2027, and if BNPS wants to buy 150% of the JV, they are more than welcome to come to us to discuss it, and then we'll see the terms of that discussion. Then on asset management, yes, you're right. Third-party main flows were lower and even negative. I think it's a mix of two things. It's mutual outflows that you would get quarter after quarter and lower gross inflows simply because with the announcement of the transaction, some investors are waiting to see what will happen, which is exactly normal in that case, and you would see it everywhere. So we do have a single client at XRM. That's very important. But, obviously, some are waiting to see the structure of the company post-acquisition.

Okay, thank you. So at this time, there are no more questions. I'll hand it back over to you for any closing remarks. Thank you very much for your interest in our nine-month activity indicators. If you have any further questions, please don't hesitate to reach out to Accent Master Relations.