Axa Sa Ord

Good afternoon and welcome to AXA's full year 2024 results presentation. The results will be presented today by our Group CEO, Thomas Boubel, Group Deputy CEO, Frederic de Courtois, and Group CFO, Avant de Mainel. For the Q&A session, we will also have Scott Gunter, CEO of AXA Excel, Guillaume Bory, CEO of AXA France, and Patrick Cohen, CEO of AXA Europe. With this, I turn it to Thomas for the results.

Thank you, Anu, and good afternoon to all of you. Very happy to see you in London here and to present to you as my colleagues a good first year of our three-year plan, Unlock the Future. When you look at the key highlights, you see that the business is in very good shape. We have achieved an 8% growth on revenue across all lines of business, across all geographies, and this has also translated into an 8% underlying earnings per share growth, which is, as you know, at the top end of our range of this plan. Very importantly, the solvency is 216%, so a very solid balance sheet, a strong capital position, which has led the board to decide that the delivery for shareholders based on these results is very positive. The dividend per share will increase by 9%, which also is a clear indication of the confidence we have in the business and also being able to deliver for the remaining two years. And an annual share buyback, a new program of $1.2 billion, which represents a 75% payout ratio. So you see that the excellent operational performance is underpinned by an attractive return to shareholders. If we go a little bit deeper, we see that AXA today is simple, is balanced and is focused on insurance. Today, we are only an insurer and it's good that we are only an insurer because that's the business we know best. That's the business we focus on. We are simple in a way that we are serving enterprises from the small SME to the large global commercial and we are on the retail side top three multi-line insurers in Europe and we have leading positions in protection and health in Japan and Hong Kong. balanced because both of it is 50 to 50 and certainly when you think about diversification and the different dynamics of these businesses over time it's important to be balanced and to have within this balance very high quality businesses with leading positions because that gives you attractive and scaled businesses and then certainly also predictable earning scores which we have shown over the last years. If we look at the top line developments, the last years were always a little bit blurred because we had many disposals, we had business right sizings, but the underlying dynamic was always 6% organic growth. From 23 to 24, we were not, and the numbers were not disturbed by any disposals and large rightsizing, and you have seen the organic growth power that is mounting to 8%. This 8% is very consistent across all the lines of business, plus 7 in PNC, plus 9 in life, plus 8 in health, and is also very consistent across all the geographies. So the attractive positioning we have in growing markets helps us to develop these and to generate these numbers. This is very much based on a high customer satisfaction. When you look at our NPS numbers, you see that they have steadily grown over time and have reached very high standards. And what we are very proud about as well, a very high customer retention in almost every market. We are also very happy to see that the investment in growth initiatives that we have been mainly focusing on 2024 start to pay off, and we'll hear later on from Frederik more detail around it, be it in mid-markets, be it in employee benefits, but also be it in expanding our distribution footprint. So what you see here is the very disciplined execution of the plan that we have presented to you about a year ago. As I said, this top line growth also translates into very strong bottom line growth, the underlying earnings per share being plus 8%. And so when you look at the timeline there again, you see that AXA has been delivering consistently earnings year after year in very different environments that have over time become more and more volatile. And if you go even further back to 2016, when I started as a CEO, the increase in profit and underlying earnings is north of 40%. What is nice to see is that top line is translating into bottom line, that we have consistent earnings. And if you look at these numbers, 110 billion revenue and 8.1 billion of profits, these are numbers that we have never seen in the history of AXA. What is it due to? As I said, it's due to the very disciplined execution that we have on clear strategic priority. It's our focus on excellent technical profitability. And as you know, the year 2024 was very focused around getting the German operation, the German retail business, and getting the UK retail business and health business right. And you have seen that we have delivered on it. And certainly the investment in technology and AI, as I said earlier, has shown its first effects, has also been a drag on our earnings in 2024, which will not repeat in the remainder of the plan, but will enable us to continue this dynamic going forward. So we've built a business over the last years that is now in good shape, that is global, that is performing well, that is giving steady and consistent returns, and that is a reliable profit generator for the future. When I talk about the future, we need to also look what are the catalysts for near-term growth in the next two years, but also beyond that. And on the commercial insurance, you clearly see that mid-market is an area where we see significant growth. We've already delivered good growth numbers in the high single digit. The energy transition is still a growth factor for us, but also when you think about companies, they want to do more for the well-being of their employees. They want to care more about their employees in terms of talent retention. There is an area to capture growth with our digital capabilities and the global pricing assets that we have. On the retail side, and it's important as well because of our balanced model to have a strong and large retail presence, we can certainly do more and want to benefit more from a new pension and savings uh... area where people think more about retirement if you look for example in france the public debate is very much again around uh... retirements and so revamping our product offerings making sure that we are becoming even more present in this area and this has already started last year in particular in france and italy we want to benefit uh... from this and certainly when you think about the retail pnc environment We are now at a level where we have done all the necessary work to be at the technical level that is necessary and now we need to use our large franchise to also gain more market share across all the countries. We have achieved that already in those countries where we didn't have this significant restructuring to be done, so the UK and Germany, but if you look at the net new customers or net new contracts across all the other markets, you see that we have been very successful already. So we are very confident that we will sustain this momentum also for the years going forward. What does it mean in terms of shareholder return? We are, the board of directors is proposing to the shareholders a dividend of 2 euro 15, which is an increase of 9%. And when you look at the total yield, it's about 7% dividend and share buyback based on a very clear capital management policy. And what does that mean if you again look over the last four years? AXA will have returned 40% of its market cap to the shareholders. 75% is paid out to shareholders. What happens to the other 25%? The other 25% is invested in our business at attractive returns. And when you look at the book value and the compounding book value per share over time, you see that it's very attractive as well. So our strategy will continue exactly what you have seen in 2024, continue to generate sustainable and predictable earnings while making sure that this value is also being created for shareholders. and when you look at where we are along the key KPIs of our plan we see that we have had a strong start of our plan on the underlying earnings per share area at the top of the range on the return of equity in the middle of our range, and certainly when you look at the cash bang on, if you look at the three-year plan. So we have high confidence that over the next two years, we will also deliver the plan. We need to remain focused on our execution, which we have proven in 2024 and which we are dedicated to do with my whole team. And that's why I will now hand over to Frederick, who will go more into details and show us what 2024 looked like, but also what the outlook will look like. Thank you.

Thank you, Thomas. Good afternoon. First, a few words on the context. It is clear that we are operating in a changing context. But we believe the context is positive. If I look on the left part of the slide, first, we have political uncertainty in the US and in Europe. We haven't seen any impact on our business. And we believe it will remain so. Second element, inflation in Europe is receding. And this is good news for insurance companies. Third, you know that we have diverging interest rates, US, Europe, and Japan. We are exposed to these three areas. But overall, interest rates remain at a good level, which is good for the insurance industry. On NatCat, you've seen that our exposure to NatCat has decreased in 24. This is a mix of good underwriting, of geographical mix, but we remain cautious. We believe that CAT will keep increasing, the severity and the frequency will keep increasing, so we will manage this in a very disciplined manner. Last element I wanted to highlight on AI, we are absolutely convinced that AI will have deep positive consequences for the insurance industry. be it on technical excellence, be it on productivity, be it on the customer experience. So we are convinced that it will have very positive impact, and this is all a matter of execution. On the right part, on the business performance, so we've delivered in line with our plan on all dimensions. First, on commercial lines, so we've seen good growth in P&C commercial lines with margins at attractive levels. On retail, we've been delivering on margin recovery in the UK, in Germany motor, and we've been growing where we wanted to grow, so in other key markets. On the short-term life business, on short-term protection and health, we are seeing higher profitability and good growth coming especially from the recovery of the UK health business, but not only. And we see improving net flows in savings. Last but not least, we continue to be extremely focused on cash with an 82% remittance ratio in 24, which is in line with our targets. So what is the overall message? First message is we are done with the fixing. All our business units are on track and in good shape. Second message, this is, we believe, a strong start, and it reflects discipline execution. Let's look at the commercial line business. So you know that we have a leading franchise on commercial lines with 35 billion premiums. with a good balance between SME and mid-market, mainly in Europe, and big corporates at Taxa XL. Margins are in a strong place with a 91% combined ratio, and we see good opportunity to grow. We see good opportunity to grow, and I will highlight especially three areas. Overall, in our commercial and business, retention is increasing. And you see the figures here at AXA Excel, which are very good. And this is especially important for commercial and business to keep your profitable clients. Second opportunity area for us, which is the mean market area. You know that we have a specific initiative on the mean market. We have a specific initiative to grow in areas where we are not strong. And be it in the US, be it in Italy, be it in the UK and Ireland, we are really happy with the results, both on the top line and on the bottom line. Third area, we believe that there is a good economic momentum in the U.S., and we are investing there to grow more on big commercial lines, on the market, and on ENS. But at the end, our focus is on sustaining our good profitability and our good margins. And as you see on the right side, this is all about cycle management. This is all about the mix and the cycle is different according to the business lines. So we are keen to grow in some business lines where the profitability is good. We are less keen to grow in some other areas. This is what we call portfolio management. And we think we are doing it well. And we do not hesitate to decrease our business where we don't like the profitability level. Last but not least, as you know, the cost of reinsurance is moderating and it is supporting margins for commercial line business. So what is next on this P&C commercial line business? We expect to see good top line growth in 25 and some improvements in margins in 25, which will drive earnings growth. If I look at retail now, so we have a good franchise on retail, especially in Europe with 19 billion premiums. You know that some of our peers are including SMEs in the retail line, which we don't. So if we included SMEs in the retail lines, it would be a 30 billion business. So we could do both. We decided not to include it, but this is important for you to know. So this business benefits from, first, a good customer satisfaction, and we are very proud of this, and you see here the figures. It also benefits from a strong proprietary distribution. We had said last year when we communicated our plan that we would grow our physical distribution channels. This is what we are doing, especially in all Europe and in France. And we also have a very good direct franchise in some markets in Europe and in Asia, which is doing well. We are also happy about our execution in 24. I've said it already, we have delivered on the turnaround in the UK retail and Germany motor, and this is good. This has led to a two points improvement of our retail technical margins. This turnaround has been based, of course, on underwriting, on pricing, on claims initiatives. But overall, I would say that we have been more courageous than the market. we've increased our prices more, we've been tougher on the underwriting, and this is good because we are now in a good position. Second area on which I would like to insist on the good execution, which is that we've grown in some markets, which we like, and we have not grown in some other markets where we believe that margins were not adequate. Overall, the balance has been zero. So if you look at our retail portfolio, overall the balance has been zero, but you see that we had good growth in France, in international markets, in Italy and Switzerland, and we've accepted to decrease our portfolio in Germany and in the UK, but also in Ireland and in Spain, because the prices were not adequate. You will see positive growth of the portfolio in 25. So what is next on the retail business? First, we believe that margins will continue to improve in 25 because pricing will be earned through and inflation is moderating. So in this context, we are focused on growing our portfolio and growing our volumes. Let's move to our life and health business. So first, this is important to understand that our life and health business is made of two different parts. The first part is what we call the short-term business. So this is pure protection business, PNC-like, annual repricing, managed like a PNC business with a combined ratio. And here we had a good growth last year. We had a 10% growth of this business with a good profitability. This is overall a $16 billion premium business and it includes our very good and very profitable employee benefit franchise. We had told you, I think, last year that the EB business was growing fast in a post-COVID environment, and this is again confirmed. Our EB business has grown by 12% last year, and we are very happy about this. This EB business is really a priority for us. We have a good franchise. We have a very good platform that we have rolled out now in 14 countries. And we continue also to invest in the individual protection business, especially for professionals and self-employed. In health, I would like to highlight the good job done in the UK, the good turnaround done in the UK, which was well executed with a 7.5 improvement of our combined ratio. You haven't seen everything yet. In other words, you will continue to see improvements in 25. And all of this has helped to deliver half of the three points margin improvement that we had announced for our plan. And this is good. So going forward, what do we expect? We expect that our margins will continue to grow in the UK, as I've just said. We will recapture the LIA premium for the first time in Ireland in 25, and the LIA premium in 25 will be around 1 billion euro. And you will see overall further margin expansion as we systematically leverage our global capabilities on healthcare pathways, data set, and pricing model. So in a nutshell, what is next on this business? First, we have a good potential to grow, to grow the top line, and we believe that we have also the capacity to grow the margins on this business, and the growth of the margins of this business will drive the earnings growth of our life and health business. Last business I would like to mention, which is our long-term life and health business. So long-term life and health business is mainly a savings business, but this is also the health business in Japan and in Germany. we have a total of 36 billion premiums. So this is a CSM-driven business. So this is why we manage this business, the short-term and the long-term in a different way. So the short-term is PNC-like. This one is, again, a long-term business driven by the CSM. And I think this is important here to look back at the history. The history for us in this business is that we've been extremely disciplined over the past years in a very low interest rate environment. And absolutely no regret on this. We believe we've done well. Now the objective is to regain momentum, to regain sales momentum. knowing that in contrast to the short-term business, here you regain sales momentum, but it takes some time to see it in the bottom line. But again, now that the context has changed, of course we remain disciplined, but the priority is to regain momentum. In addition, you know, if I look again at the history, that we had outflows over the past two years linked to high short-term interest rates, the strong competition from short-term banking products. this negative effect is now disappearing, and you will see that it will gradually disappear. So, to be more specific, where do we see the momentum? We start to see the momentum on premiums, and you see that, be it on unit linked or on capital light, general account business, we have a good sales momentum, especially in our proprietary distribution network. The good news is that we are also seeing a strong improvement of surrenders as I've seen. So we had strong surrenders in 23. We again had significant surrenders in 24, but you've seen that over the quarters, all of this has gradually improved towards a much better situation. Having said that, we are clear that we can do better on this business. Again, we have to regain momentum. For a few years, the priority was to be disciplined, to be disciplined on the mix, to be disciplined on what we sell, to be disciplined on the volume. Now that the context has changed, we can do better and we know what we have to do. We believe that we have a strong competitive advantage especially against asset management companies. We can offer lifelong whole life annuities, which is good in the moment in which pension are growing. We can offer protection riders. We can offer guarantees when it makes sense. So we believe that we have a good competitive advantage and we believe also that the partnership with BNP Paribas on asset management will bring some benefits to us. We had some underperforming asset classes at AXA and we believe that with this new partnership it will boost our live business. So in a nutshell, what is next on this business? From now on, we will invest and focus more on this long-term business and especially on pension. I had said it already when we communicated our plan. To put things in perspective, a 1% increase in life and health earnings requires a 0.3 point improvement in the short-term combined ratio. or 1.5 points of change in long-term CSM release growth, which gives order of magnitudes. So on this live business, we are very confident with the business. We are very confident with the potential, and we are very confident that we can do better than what we are doing now. It's all a question of focus. One sentence to conclude on this first year, we are fully on track with the execution of our plan. Thank you.

Good afternoon to all. Let's go now to the details of our earnings for 2024. Yes. I'll start with P&C, which is our largest line. What's remarkable about P&C in 2024 is that we had both very good top line growth and margin improvement, and we had also a good balance between volumes and price. So if I start with commercial lines, it was another good year for AXA XL, which benefited from good volumes, either from new business in lines where pricing was dynamic and better retention in the other lines where the pricing was more stable than you saw in the Frederic's slide, how retention improved at AXA XL. On the price side, you know that overall, it's not one cycle at AXA XL, but different lines. When you look at casualty, prices were still up quite significantly, 4% in Europe, 10% in the U.S., When you look at property, still it was also more than sufficient, with plus 4% in Europe and 7% in the US. But as we said also last year, on the financial lines, and notably in the US, the market remains soft. But overall, prices were up 2% for the whole year for AXA XL. In the SME and mid-market, we saw absolutely no sign of a cycle. Pricing conditions remained favorable overall, and demand remained strong. AXA's salary, plus 10%, half from pricing, half from volumes. And finally, in retail lines, it was up 7%. When you look at it this way, pricing was plus 10% and volumes was minus 3%, but it's obviously due to the very strong repricing and turnaround that we executed in Germany and in the UK. You know that in the UK, we increased prices in retail by more than 30% and close to 15% in Germany. If you adjust for those two countries, we were at plus 6% in the other countries, half from volume and half from prices. And we grew, as Frédéric showed, in those countries where margins were good. So very good mix and very good top-line growth in PNC. As I said, we were also able to improve our margins. And I think what matters most is the undiscounted loss ratio, excluding NatCat, that improved by 1.1 point. That came, obviously, from the retail lines, and again, Germany and the UK, but not only Germany and the UK, because we also saw improvements in retail in the other countries. And we also saw margin improvement in commercial lines XXL. If you remember one year ago when we were here presenting our plan, we told you that we saw potential for margin expansion in commercial lines XXL, and that's what we saw. And margins remained stable at XL in 24. So we managed to improve our margins with the attritional loss ratio. On NatCat, we had a good year. We had a catalog of 3.8 points below our annual catalog or budget of 4.5 points, partly because of the exposure management, partly probably also because some NatCats were not in the geographies we were in. We cannot always take credit for everything, and we remain cautious for our NatCat load for 25, and we keep our 4.5 points budget for 25. Expense ratio was slightly up, 30 bps. That's exclusively due to acquisition costs, commission, and that's a business mix point. And finally, on PYDs, it slightly increased. That's simply a proof of prudent reserving. I don't think there is much more to say about it. But as Frédéric pointed out, we had planned for a two points improvement in our margins in P&C over the planned period. We delivered more than half in the first year of that plan and we see room for further improvement with the pricing dynamic that we see this year. So how does that translate into earnings? So you see the very significant amount of additional margins in euros, close to 1.5 billion, coming from higher volumes and the better margins. On the financial result, you remember that last year we told you that we would have a significant increase in the unwind effect, 550 million, and that's exactly what we have here. I think what is good to notice is that we could offset most of it thanks to higher investment incomes. We are very pleased with our performance on the investment income. And I just want to spend also a minute on our taxes. In 2023, We had a positive one-off in P&C in taxes, notably because Bermuda introduced new taxes, and that allowed us to recognize a DTA in 23 in Bermuda at Excel. Conversely, in 24, we have the first year of the OECD Tax Pillar 2. And that's a negative. So between the two, it's a shift of 200 million of profits and less profits. And so we had the unwind. We had the taxes. Nevertheless, despite all this, we managed to increase underlying earnings in PNC by 10%. And that's a clean base to grow from from now on. Life and health. So on volumes, as Frederic and Thomas pointed out, we have very good growth in volumes, 9%. That's 3% in protection coming mainly from Japan, as often, and from Switzerland. It's unit-linked plus 18%. That's driven very much by Italy, where unit-linked growth was above 40%. But also France, where through new products, new campaigns, unit-linked volumes growth was 12%. So we see good momentum here. And same on capital light general account, 15%. Again, driven by Japan with a single premium whole life product, which, by the way, we will probably sell a bit less of it in 2025. We need to be a bit cautious. But nevertheless, a good year in volumes for life. Same on the health side. We had growth of 5% on the individual part, that's mostly pricing, and 10% on the group part, and that's a mix, probably one-third, two-thirds of pricing, of volume, sorry, and pricing. Net flows, as Frédéric said, that matters a lot to us now that we have cleaned are in force, and that we want to grow our savings business, it's important to have positive inflows. That's what we have, 1.5 billion. If you exclude health and just focus on savings, it's not yet positive, but we are confident that it should become positive in 2025, and that will help us grow our CSM. One word on the unit linked, 0.8 billion negative is obviously not something that we want from a business which is capital light. One thing to keep in mind in our French business is that we have an automatic rebalancing in what we call for our customers. When markets reach a certain level, we automatically move part of their savings, the client's savings, from Unitlink to General Account to secure some of their capital gains. That was exactly 800 million in 2024. PVP and new business. On PVP, really, the story is the same as for premiums. I will just comment on the new business margin, which is down slightly from 5% to 4.4%. That's really a matter of business mix or geographic mix. We sold less of a high-margin health product in Japan. And we sold more of a lower margin but still profitable protection product in France. At the end of the day, what matters to us is the fact that we grow our NBV, and that's what you see. We grow our NBV by 2% in 2024. CSM, so you remember that we did two enforced transactions last year, one in France, the other one with Accel Life Europe. That had an impact of minus 600 million on the stock of the CSM. Our normalized CSM growth is 2%, which is a bit below our expectations. Economic variance was negative by a billion. That's entirely due to the widening of government bond spreads. And you will see the same in our solvency numbers. But as you know, there is a pull to par on this. And as we get closer to maturity, we will recoup that amount. And operating variance was positive, 400 million. So as you know, we don't put it in our normalized CSM growth, but nevertheless, it's future better margins because of better mortality, better lapses or whatever, that will be a positive for our CSM going forward and our CSM release. Earnings, so we like to think about our life and health earnings in three parts. The first one is the short-term part, which is P&C-like. And you saw that there, sorry, that we increased revenue very significantly, 10%, but we also massively increased profitability by 149%. It's obviously due to the turnaround that we operated in the UK on the health business, but not only. It's also a good performance in France in protection and a good performance in health in other countries than the UK. Thanks to that, We have already delivered half of the combined ratio improvement that we wanted to have in life and health over the planned period. CSM release, minus 1%, but plus 2% if you exclude the two enforced transactions that I mentioned. And last, net financial result on non-participating business, plus 10%. Same story as in PNC. We had good investment income in life that more than offset the increase in the unwind. So it's a good set of results in life and health, but very importantly, we see the potential for more growth in earnings from that basis. Trying to move to the next slide. Yes. Here is just the summary of what I've just said. I just want to highlight the fact that health earnings grew by 24% for the reasons I said. Life earnings were stable, all plus 2%, if you exclude the impact of the enforced transactions. You remember that, obviously, that loss of earnings was compensated through buybacks done last year. Asset management for the closing of the AXIM transaction should take place at the end of Q2 or beginning of Q3. Until then, we keep on consolidating AXIM's earnings. So AUM are up 4%. That's a mix of good market conditions and net inflows, 3 billion, coming from third parties. We had good management of our expenses at AXIM, stable management fees, slightly up, which allowed us to have underlying earnings grow by 11%. So in this table, you have the summary P&C Life and Health Asset Management. I haven't commented on holding costs, including debt expenses, obviously, yet. So it increases by 150 million. Again, that's in line with what we told you last year for our plan. That's due to investments in technology and investment for growth. Very importantly, this will remain flat for the other years of the plan, i.e., 25 and 26. So underlying earnings grew by 7%. If you add to that the benefit of the share buyback and deduct the fact that Forex was a negative, our underlying earnings per share grew by 8%. One word on net income, it grew by 11%. Compared to underlying earnings, it's always the same difference. We had capital gains on real estate, but we also had the traditional amortization of intangible assets, and that explains the difference between underlying earnings and net income. I come back to taxes. There were, as I said, a number of one-offs in the past, and there was significant variation in our taxes in 24. The effective tax rate that you can take into account going forward, excluding any one-off, is 24%. That's what you should have in mind, which is the consequence of the changes, notably of the Pillar 2 tax. If I move to shareholders' equity, 50 billion. When we look at true shareholders' equity, i.e. excluding undated subordinated debt and excluding OCI, It's 53 billion up 6%. And that reflects, as was said before by Thomas, the fact that we want to distribute 75% of our earnings, but we want to keep 25% and grow our book value. ROE was 15.2%, in line with our target range of 14% to 16%. And dead gearing was 20.6%, slightly above 2023 number, Not because we increased debt, it remained flat, simply because the OCI, which is a negative amount, increased by 1.5 billion, so it's a denominator effect, not a numerator one. That's why our debt gearing increased slightly. So 7% underlying earnings growth, 8% underlying earnings per share growth, 9% dividend per share growth, to which we will add 1.2 billion of annual share buyback, and that brings us to the 75% overall payout that we are now used to. We will do a 3.8 billion share buyback to offset the loss of earnings of AXIM, we will start that share buyback as soon as practicable after the closing of the transaction. Given the amount at stake, part of it will be done in 25, part of it most probably will be done in 26, which means that the full compensation of the loss of AXIM earnings will be achieved at the end of 26. A word on cash. The cash remitted by our subsidiaries was 7.7 billion, so an excellent year. That's 7.1 billion organic remittance or ordinary remittance, which means an 82% remittance ratio. In addition to that, we got 600 million, which was the materialization of the enforced transactions and the release of capital that we did in France and in Ireland. And you know that last year we paid 4.4 billion of dividend and we did 1.8 billion of share buybacks, 1.1 annual share buyback and 700 million again to offset those enforced transactions. Holding cost, interest expense, I already commented on and I insist on the fact that they will remain flat. Last word on solvency. We generated 28 points of solvency, so within our range of 25 to 30 points. And that is despite the fact that we grew all our lines of business between 7% and 8%. So we managed to do that by being very strict on the management of our required capital. We give 22 points back to our shareholders, and that is the dividend and the share buyback to be done. That excludes, obviously, at this stage, the share buyback that we'll do for XIM. We have an economic variance that cost us 13 points. That's what I mentioned earlier on the widening of government bond spread. And finally, three points less of solvency due to the fact that we substituted senior debt to the subordinated debt that we redeemed or repaid in 2024. And going forward, that's something that we can do. I mean, we will use all sorts of debts to replace the subordinated debt, which will lose its solvency status by the end of 2026. So overall, solid growth everywhere, growing earnings in line with our plan, with our expectations. You remember that we said we would grow PNC earnings and life and health earnings between 4% and 6%. So life, we are exactly in line. PNC, we did better than that in 2024. And still a very strong level of sovereignty. Thomas, I'll let you conclude.

Thank you, Alban. To conclude, five key messages. Number one, AXA, as you've seen, is a balanced global franchise with a very solid balance sheet. Number two, we have shown in the first year high execution discipline of a couple key priorities. Third topic, the high growth that we have shown has translated into predictable earnings growth. Fourth one, this has resulted in an attractive shareholder return with, as you've seen, plus 9% dividend per share and a new program of share buybacks of $1.2 billion. And lastly, we are confident to deliver our plan Unlock the Future for the remaining two years with focus on the one hand further improving our technical profitability and on the other hand increasing our dynamic on the life and savings business. Thank you for your attention and we'll now go to your questions. And we'll be joined by Scott, Guillaume and Patrick. Let's start with Michael here in the front.

I basically wanted to ask for more. So you delivered, and it's nice, but the 8%, and I'm kind of thinking, so you said this time last year 6 to 8. We've got today, we've got 8. And I'm just wondering, is there a chance that you might reset the plan to say maybe... 7 to 9, like some of your peers, or even 8 to 10, like some other peers. So that would be my first question. And then the second question is, with all this cash coming in, and I know you're doing buybacks and stuff, but if I were CEO, I'd always think I want to buy something. Have you stopped buying anything? Have you kind of given up and said, no, no, no, we're done?

That's it. So it's interesting that you only have two questions today. I'll try and answer them both. So on the plan, I mean, obviously, this question is a very normal one if you end your first year at 8%, the upper range. But as you know, we are a prudent company. So we are now going into the second year and see what is coming and have decided to remain at 6% to 8%. If we go into year three and we still see high numbers, we should have a look again. But as of now, let's stick to what we said to you last year. On the second question, it's true that cash is coming in, and I think that should always be seen as a positive sign because we always said that cash at the holding should be somewhere around 3 billion. You've just seen from Alban that it's at the end of last year at 4 billion. We are very much focused on implementing our strategy on delivering on those priorities and you've seen the operating and organic machine works very well. Yes, we do look at deals here and there but we don't spend 24 hours a day on this and I think keeping a good balance between core focus on the operations and occasionally looking at what's out there is important not forgetting the clear priority that we have, dividend, share buyback first, and then we can have a look if there is anything interesting coming. Let's stay at the same table, Farouk, and we have to wait for the mic.

Hi, everybody. Thank you very much. Farouk from JP Morgan. So it sounded, Frederic, when you were giving your presentation, that you're basically saying high single-digit growth would not be a stretch next year. Just digging into some of the segments, so you talk about mid-market. In mid-market in P&C, is that a higher margin business for you? Because you talk about pricing still being... very strong versus inflation or stronger. Would we expect some positive mix effect if you grow more in um in mid-market in pnc and similarly in employee benefits it feels like the momentum there is very strong you've got some special skills you know again is that a good mix effect so that's question area number one and question two uh for albon is i remember the guidance you gave in pnc about the difference between investment income and Iffy at your CMD, you talked about I think a 500 million hit net. Given what you've seen in markets, what are the trends that could revise that?

Good. Thank you, Farouk. I would suggest, Frederick, you start with the first question and maybe we also let Patrick and Scott talk because you have two people there that are very much Scott in the mid-market in the U.S., Patrick in the mid-market in Europe that has been strong in Spain, Italy, and in the U.K., and you also are responsible for employee benefits. Patrick, and then Alban, if you could do the second question.

Frederick. I'll start with in-market. So as you know, we have experience on in-market because we have big businesses in France, in Germany, in Switzerland, in Belgium. And they are excellent businesses and we are often market leaders in these various countries. And yes, our experience is that we have on in-market business higher margins than we have on big corporates. Now the new phase is to continue to grow these historical countries, historical business units, and to grow the mid-market business in some other countries. And we especially have identified the US, the UK, and Southern Europe. It's a bit early to say, but Scott will comment. But first, we are absolutely on track with our plan on the top line, which means that there is appetite from brokers to have a new player on this business. And second, the first signals are that, yes, margins are higher than on the big corporate business. That's a bit early, but the first signals are positive. On EB, so we have, as I said, we have a very strong franchise. On EB, you need to be able to offer worldwide covers to big companies. I would say that on EB compared to individual protection and health, margins are pretty similar. Pretty similar because when you negotiate with these big players on EB, they have a strong procurement department, if I may say, and the negotiations are tough. But on both businesses, so be it EB, EB health, EB protection, or EB pension, and individual protection and individual health, margins are fine.

So maybe let's zoom into the US, Scott, and then we go to Patrick on the continent and the UK. Yeah, just a

Is it working? Okay, good. It works. Yeah, just on the U.S., we've launched mid-market about a year and a half ago. And similar to what Frederick said, the reason we're in the mid-market business is the large account business is a little more cyclical, so the margins can get bigger. Better when the markets rock hard, but also under more pressure when it goes very, very soft. So either ends of the marketplace, it's a little better. Mid-market for us is a little more less susceptible to the cycle. It still is, but the highs aren't as high, but the lows aren't as low, if you want to look at it that way. And it's adjacent to our expertise. So we've got the distribution, the underwriting talent, the capability. So it makes a ton of sense for us. to be in that business adjacent to what we currently do. So we've been building it out. We're very excited by it. And as Frederick said, so far it has performed very well for us over the last 18 months. We expect to continue to build it. Thank you, Scott. Patrick?

Yes, so in Europe, mid-market is also, in continental Europe, a very strong opportunity. It's 45% of our business. It's a growing business. It's a profitable one. We've got a very strong position in the UK. We've got a very strong position in Germany, where we are top three. We are growing that business with a very... I'd say an organized go-to-market strategy that is paying off, being very close to our customer through market facing underwriting, bringing the right expertise, strengthening also our risk engineering, and it shows in the growth of the number, and also positioning ourselves on on lines and segments who are high growth. So for instance, in Germany, we are leading position on renewables. We've been growing that book of business 15% CAGR in the outer years, and we got similar plays in the UK. So a strong model and a growth opportunity, and we have a no-drop-ball strategy with Excel, where we are making sure that we're managing jointly the pipeline to serve those customers.

You also want to say a word because mid-market is also key in France. And then we go to Albon.

Yes, so mid-market, good afternoon first everyone. And mid-market is indeed a critical business for the French operation, where we are the leading insurer of French companies on the market. And where we had in 24 yet another year of solid performance. both on top line developments mostly driven by the increase in our average price and in the combined ratio that further improved starting from already a very low basis so i'm confident in the current trends and for 25 we see exactly the same trends on the market with the the same strong commercial dynamic

And so on investment and IFEA. So there's probably another 200 million of unwind of IFEA to come, which is in line with what we had told you last year for the full plan. I mean, overall, we would have 800 million. That's mechanical and that's easy to determine. As I said earlier, we did better than we thought on the investment side. We thought we would get 200 to 300 million. We got 400 million, which are there to stay, and we will probably offset at least half of the additional 200 million that are coming with additional investment income.

Dominic? Tom O'Mahony, BNP Paribas, Exxon. Thanks. Just two questions for me. The first is, Frederick, you talked about reinvigorating the pensions proposition. I wonder if you might just give us another layer down on what that looks like in practice, both on the product side and the distribution side. This time last year, there was an emphasis on expanding the agency force. How is that rolling out? Excuse me. The second question just on Excel. It looked like casualty is an area of growth. I'm curious to hear your views on the debate, I guess, in the market about whether pricing is adequate and, I guess, which bits of casualty you're looking at. Thank you.

Good. Frédéric, do you want to start with the first question and then also bring in Guillaume and Patrick because you have launched in France with the Gestion Pilote and Patrick in Italy in particular this movement. And then, Scott, if you can take the second question around casualty and is the pricing adequate. Frédéric.

So on pension, there is only one certainty which is that pension will be the big topic for us over the next 20 years. for sure, because of the demographics. And because governments become more open on this topic. You see the debate, and Thomas mentioned it in France today, what we call is again on the table. So for sure, it will be a big topic. This is a market on which insurance companies compete with asset managers, and we don't have the same assets, if I may say. As I've said before, insurance companies can offer whole life annuities, which asset manager cannot. We can offer protection riders that are especially useful for pension products because, for instance, you can commit to paying the remaining premiums if somebody has died or whatever. These are regular premium products. And we can offer some kind of capital guarantees when it makes sense. So again, it will be a harsh competition. You can offer these products in an individual way or in a collective group way, if I may say. If I look at the French example, which is a good recent example, so the plan de paine retrait was launched three years ago, and I will let Guillaume comment. And at the end, insurance companies did take over the market. Now 15 million people in France have a plan de paine retraite, and we expect to see the same trend in some of the markets. So this is about having good products, having good distribution, and having a good asset management company as a partner, knowing that in pension products, you can have also passive asset management.

Guillaume, gestion pilotée.

So maybe a word to complement first on what Frédéric just said on the retirement market in France, where we are the leader both in group retirements and in individual retirements. So in group retirements, we provide retirement solutions for companies. working both on Pillar 2 and Pillar 3. And in individual retirement, it's a market that recently opened, as Frédéric indicated, and on which we are by far the leading provider. It's only Pillar 3, but with a strong growth on the market. In both cases, we have a bit more than 20% market share, developing consistently over time. On top of that, the structure of the French market is leading us to also work a lot on this topic with the life insurance products because today it's a fact that most of the French consumers are also using life insurance to prepare for their retirement and long-term savings needs. So on that market, we have in 2024 managed really to re-accelerate with very good commercial dynamics in 2024. So you see that in our figures, more than 5% growth on the savings and retirement business ultimately. And there, the good news also is that we managed to reduce persistency on the existing portfolio. So lapse rate went down by approximately one point of percentage. So when you look at that, how did we do that? It's mostly about strength of the distribution networks. especially indeed our tight agents and salaried sales force that we did increase during 2024, a bit more than 250 additional distributors on the market. Second, revamped offers, that's where come the gestion pilotée, so it's a discretionary portfolio management solution that we provide to all customers on the market, extremely helpful with mass market and affluent customer. Of course, for high net worth individuals there, we need to put in place more wealth management solution through a dedicated team that is also working very well. And on persistency, we also worked on really training our distribution workforce in order to reduce the lapse rate that we saw in 22 and 23. All in all, it led us to strongly improve the net flows in our savings business by a bit more than 2.7 billion in 24. And all of this will drive for us future CSM release. So this year, we managed to have a growth of the CSM release of 5% when you adjusted for the in-force operation we did last year. And going forward, we see very much the same trend due to this new dynamic on the net flows. So I'm positive on the prospect of this activity. And to put that in perspective with the group figures, it's more or less half of the group savings activity. So you will see that as a material effect on our release going forward.

Patrick? So same dynamic in Europe. Is this working? Yes, it is? You can hear me. Okay, so life is back in Europe, and we are really positioning ourselves on long-term savings and pension. I'd start with the numbers. So the premiums grew 11% this year, 26% in UnitLinked. And what is... Nice to see is that the growth is really coming from all the places in Europe. You got 7% in Switzerland, 8% in Belgium, 20% in Italy. So that's quite remarkable. I mean, 12% in UL growth in Germany. So how are we doing this? It's a little bit what Guillaume just explained. We want to be the trusted partner for the customers when it comes to their retirement. So I'll talk to a very specific, I think, good example that comes from Switzerland. In Switzerland, we're number two in individual life in the market. Our ambition is to become number one. We have a clear target segment. So clear ambition, clear target segments. We're targeting the 50 plus to capture the outflows, basically. And this segment is the one concentrating most of the wells. So we came up this year with a new proposition which combines accumulation and decumulation solution. Very competitive fees and a very simplified thematic offer on the unit link. And you saw the number, this is paying off. What is very interesting as well is we are leveraging our strong position in employee benefit. We're the leader on employee benefit protection. So through that connection, we can steer customer to a digital portal. We got 500,000 potential customers connecting to this portal. where they will get advice, where they can consolidate their pension, and we leverage from this basis to move them into our savings proposition. And this is working quite well. We have similar plays organized with the same logic in Belgium, in Germany, and across the board.

Thank you, Patrick. Let's go to Scott around casualty and the pricing adequacy.

Yes, good question. You know, sort of the good news to start with is, you know, when we look mainly at the excess casualty portfolio in the United States, when we look at that, we feel pretty comfortable that we're adequate in terms of reserving. As you all know, we purchased an ADC back for 19 and prior. we haven't touched that adc so that gives us pretty good comfort that you know we kind of got those years right and we've been building on top of those years so the good news is we think we're pretty adequate across that piece the more challenging news is given the litigation abuses that you're seeing in the united states you're going to need significant rate to keep up you know low double digits sort of that 10 to 12 kind of rate number just to sort of hold serve on trend And now we achieved that in 24, but we're laser focused on keeping that. We know what you have to do there. If you fall behind, it's going to be a problem at that level of loss trend. But in terms of the portfolio we have and what we need to do, we're pretty clear-eyed on that portfolio and what we ought to get done there.

Let's go to William.

Hi, thanks very much. I'm William Hawkins from KBW. The outlook for the CSM, you've talked about that, but I wonder if you could just be clearer, please. I think the plan was originally talking about north of 3% growth. I'm not sure if you're telling us that after a week year, we're going to accelerate to be above that, so we're back at north of 3%, if we assume north of 3% from here, or if we're going to be structurally lower. and within that I'm still not quite clear the expected unwind fell really sharply year on year when I expect that to be quite a stable number so if you just help me understand that please and then secondly can you just remind us the amount of solvency to grandfather debt that's still outstanding to be dealt with and roughly what you think the impact on the solvency may be this year from dealing with that or maybe over the next two years thank you

Albon, I propose you take those two questions, outlook on CSM and the outstanding amount on grandfather debt.

So the CSM fundamentally is a function of the amount of reserves that we have. And we will grow that through positive net flows as we explained earlier. Now, when you look at our numbers, there are three things I want to mention. The operational variance that I discussed earlier, which was a positive, and that will flow through the CSM release over time. The new business CSM, when you look at the growth there, it was a growth of 1% only. But volumes, it meant a growth of new business CSM of 5% to 6%. But then we were down with FX because of the Japanese yen. and also because of financial assumptions still in Japan as rates went up and therefore as its protection business that had an impact on our CSM and our new business CSM in Japan. That will not happen every year and again that financial impact we will earn it over the next years because it's discounted at a higher rate. So keep in mind that the new business CSM grew at 1%, but that's not its normal growth rate. And then the third element is the unwind. And on this, it's a function fundamentally of two things. One is simply the fact that you discount at the previous year rates that have been down, and therefore you unwind this in 24, was a bit lower than it was the year before. And the second impact, and then you need to have a PhD in CSM, is the following. When we sold products with a lot of options and guarantees. when you unwound those options and guarantees, they didn't materialize in the real world, and that therefore meant a higher unwind in your CSM. Now we have moved to products that have less options and guarantees and better ROEs, and therefore when they unwind for the amount of CSM, you have less unwind. So that's the other reason why the unwind was lower, but the main reason was, the first one on the discount rate. On the amount of sovereignty to grandfather debt, let me come back to you. I don't have it precisely in mind, but I will give it to you.

And, William, I think not to be forgotten, this is a three-year plan, not a one-year plan. The focus in the first year was clearly to get Germany and the U.K. right, which is done. We have clearly heard around the, let's say, vital dynamic around life and savings, so this is clearly a focus area now for the remaining two years, and we will get to where we need to get. Let's go to Andrew, I think.

Great, thank you. Andrew Baker, Goldman Sachs. First one, just on the commercial lines margin expansion for next year, should we expect this to be outside of AxoXL, or have you turned incrementally more positive on AxoXL and the margin development there? And then secondly, are there any personal lines markets outside of the UK where you're seeing any softening in pricing? Thank you.

Frédéric, do you want to answer both questions? One on the commercial lines margin expansion outside, including Excel, and then the second one, any personal lines markets outside the UK that show a bit of softening?

I'll start on commercial lines and Scott will help me. First, on the non-Excel business, we continue to see on the mid-market business, so the European business, price increases that are higher than claims inflation. This is very clear. And again, at the renewals on the first of January, this is the trend that we have seen. So on the non-Excel business, we continue to see margin expansion. Scott, I'll let you on the Excel business.

Yeah, part of the unlock the future through your plan is that one of the goals for Axe XL is to sort of maintain our undiscounted current year loss ratio, right? So XCAT. And we did it in 23 to 24. We did that. And it's sort of our plan. And it's all about managing the mix. Some of the dials will be turned, plus our growth initiatives that we talked about with mid-market and a couple of other ones. Those will come on as well, and we'll continue to obviously grow the premium. Right now, our plan is essentially to continue what we said when we did the Unlock the Future.

To your second question, simple answer. The UK is the only market where we see the prices decrease again. I would say on the contrary, in other markets, we continue to see good price increases. No comment.

But the good news, Frederic, is that we have done our job. So even if prices were to decrease, we don't have to restructure anymore and could react to it.

Thank you. It's Fahad Shugazi from Kepler Chevro. Could I just follow up on the CSM growth? So in 2025, could you give us some color in terms of your business mix and swap rates where the life expected return is going to go in the road forward? And just a second thing to confirm. So in terms of the grandfathered debt, are you going to be looking to do the same thing of swapping it for senior? Thank you.

Albon, I guess those questions are for you again. Same on the debt.

So on the debt, as I said, we will look at what makes most sense for us. We will not replace one for one, sub-debt by sub-debt, and notably in anticipation of the Solvency II revision. that will give us the benefit. We will know probably more in the second half of this year. We have a better view of this, but it will be a clear positive. So we don't see a lot of, we don't see it very interesting to issue Tier 2 and even Tier 1, even less Tier 1 going forward. Bear also in mind that we will have more cash at whole core level with the sale of Axon IM. So there again, we need to take that into account when we look at the stock of that. On the CSM, as we said, that's something that will improve progressively as we build up reserves. We're not happy with the 2%. We will look to grow in line with our plan, our CSM.

Maybe I'll add a word on solvency and debt because you know that not only do we have a good solvency margin, but we have a solvency to revision coming up on the 1st of January, 2027. All the debates are not closed, so now we discuss with the Commission about what we call the level two and level three. It will be finalized around the summer, but the probability is very high as we know that we will have a positive impact on our solvency margin. The debt for us and the mix between sub-debt and senior is a good way to manage our solvency margin. In other words, we are happy to have a good solvency margin, but we are not happy to have an excessively high solvency margin.

It's very different at the level of solvency of 200 and above 200 versus nine years ago when you were around 170, 180. Let's continue there. David.

Thank you. This is David Barmer from Bank of America. First, on the PNC combined ratio, and sorry, another one for you, Alban. You were talking quite a bit last year about managing the volatile parts of the combined ratio, so net cats, discounting, PYD. In the second half of this year, this changed quite a bit, and despite net cats being lower discounting being a bit lower than expected to, you increase your PYD. Do you see that? So first, can you talk a little bit about how you're managing the three together going forward and whether this level of PYD is so closer to the top end of what you used to do is what we should expect going forward. And then secondly, on capital return and the AXA-IEM-related buyback, the way I understood the 3.8 was that it was based on the share price at the time of the transaction last summer. Your share price has increased since then, but you're still talking about 3.8 billion today. Which one of the two is it?

Thank you. 3.8 billion.

Albon. Yes, so on the PYDs, I did say that effectively we would try as much as possible to manage together this kind of PYDs and NatCat. That being said, you also need to recognize the fact when you look at your reserves and when you have your actuaries say, well, we have some excess reserves. I'm not saying... 1.1 versus 1.6, 23 versus 24, has a big difference. And 1.6 is a reasonable amount. I think we still have prudent reserving. For instance, we didn't release any reserves at Excel. So going forward, there can be some variations around that level of PYDs. But again, it's first and foremost a testament to our prudent preserving. On capital release and the 3.8 billion, the way we think about it is simple. It's 400 million of earnings, as you saw. It's a P of 9.5 times. So when you multiply one by the other, you come to the 3.8 billion of share buyback that's needed to offset the dilution of earnings.

Let's go to the table over there.

Hadley, I think. Thanks very much, Hadley Cohen, Morgan Stanley. First question, if I could ask one of Michael's questions in a slightly different way, please. There's a lot of positive talk here around momentum in the top line. You've fixed the problems in the UK and Germany in terms of you should start seeing net customer growth. There is still... margin expansion coming through on the P&C side, on the health side. We should get a bit of a recovery in the CSM growth. There's no incremental drag from holding expenses, no incremental drag from tax as well. So I guess the point, my question is, why shouldn't we expect 8% or more earnings growth in 2025 versus 24? That's my first question. Second question, is just a bit of clarity, please, around the timings of the buybacks. So you've announced the $1.2 billion today, and I think you've got until the end of the year to complete it, but presumably that needs to be completed before you start doing the $3.8 billion. And I think the deal is expected to close at the end of the second quarter, and presumably you want to start doing that... the subsequent buyback as quickly as possible. Can you just talk me through how we should think about the timings of this and is it reasonable to assume that all of this could be done before we're back here this time next year and you're proposing the next buyback? Thank you.

You're projecting very far in the next year. So I think, Alban, you talk about the question of buybacks, and I'll try a second time your first question. But I think on the buybacks, Alban has been quite clear. The 3.8 will be done post-closing. The closing will most likely be in summer, and there's half of it this year and the other half next year, roughly. So I would probably not expect at the end of February to be done with it, but I will go more into detail. On the first topic, you are absolutely right that there is great momentum in the business model of AXA. Nevertheless, we still have got a couple of jobs to do. In the first year, we focused very much on fixing Germany and the UK. This is done and is behind us and the teams have all done a great job on this one. We still have work to do, as we mentioned earlier, around the margin expansion, a bit in P&C, in health, and certainly work more on the dynamic around our life business. And therefore, we would like, in the second year of the plan, see more of this happening. before we have a debate, is six to eight the right number? And that's why I have adapted to be very French over nine years, but the German prudency is not out yet, and so I will remain on these six to eight percent for the time. Albon.

The fact that we said it would be done before year-end, that's prudent legal language, let's put it that way. The experience is that in previous buybacks, we could buy, say, 150 million a week. That gives you the idea that fundamentally, we should be done with the 1.2 billion buyback before we start. Now, I want to make sure that my lawyers are happy with that. I would still want to be prudent. It depends on market condition and so on. But normally, we should be done before we start the XIM buyback.

Will?

Thanks. Will Hardcastle, UBS. Really quick one on the grandfather debt. There's been a few on that, hasn't there? Just presumably, just working out, is that in the logic, in the plan on the EPS, that there'd be a reduction there? I guess it will be on solvency and leverage, but just wondering if there's any... thought process in the target plan EPS on that already. And the second one's just really thinking about the dividends. We've seen the odd change of announcement on timings of dividends by some European and French domiciled businesses, financial services businesses. Is there anything structurally that makes you have to have an annual dividend or is this something that the board considered this year? Thank you.

So thank you, Will. Albon, you take the first question. I'll do the second one because it's a quick answer. Obviously, the board is looking at this on a regular manner. And since some of our French other companies have gone to this, we obviously had a look at it. And weighing all options, the board has decided to stay at the current policy of a yearly dividend. Albon.

So in the meantime, thanks to Anouk, I have the answer on the grandfather debt. So it's 4.5 billion left, 3.4 in tier 1 and 1.1 in tier 2. As we said last year, we will not necessarily repay everything because some can become senior debt, and we'd be happy with that. So again, that's something that we can consider. Look, again, we have the Solvency II revision, we have AXA-IM that allows us to manage our debt slightly more freely than what we could think probably a year ago. So yes, there's potentially a bit of upside there, but it's not massive, honestly.

Let's go to the front row.

Thank you. So two questions. The first, just on Excel, in the slide it showed that the retention has been increasing over time. So if you could just talk about the actions you've been taking to improve it and if that could continue to improve in 25-26. And then the second question is around the, it's just a clarification around the commission ratio within PNC combined ratio. Should we expect this to change any more going forwards because of business mix?

So, Scott, do you want to start on the first one and then Alban on the second one, knowing obviously that when you go into more attractive businesses, automatically your commission will increase. But Alban will go into detail. Scott.

Sure. Just on the retention, that has been a deliberate part of our strategy. A couple of years ago, we were in a fixing part of the portfolio, right? So there was some terms and conditions we had to fix. Pricing wasn't quite where we wanted it to be on some of the product lines. So by definition, we ended up with a little bit lower retention. For the last couple of years, you know, we really like the book of business. We like the adequacy of the pricing. So we've been laser focused on pricing. retention of the portfolio and we do it a couple of ways we've implemented a rather than a large account rather than just an individual product we also have client managers now who meet with clients. Directly and speak about the various products we provide in the services we provide to help them see sort of the overall acts of one acts of approach what that goal is to make access smaller for the client. So rather than them trying to figure us out, we make it simpler for them to do business with us. And that has actually given us an uplift, not just on additional business with that client, but retaining that business. And there's been also, in the last few years, things have been a little, you know, there's lots going on between CAT and other, you know, poly crises happening and sort of a little bit of a flight to quality. And our financial strength really plays into that over the last few years where clients are looking for that stability. And that's been a very strong value proposition for us on the renewal book.

And on your second question, the short answer is no, we don't expect an additional increase. And just to clarify, we are not willing to pay more commissions for a given business. So it is a question, as we said, of business mix. The business mix issue is more an Excel issue because we want to adapt to the various cycles of the various lines of business. But we don't see the cycle in 2025 to be massively different from what it was in 2024 when it comes to property, casualty, or financial lines. That's why we think the acquisition ratio should be fairly stable.

In the corner there, and then we go to Andrew.

Afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. It's Abid Hussain from Penro Libre. I've just got one question left on the health business, if I can. How are the margins trending across the health insurance business? And do you still see avenues for growth following the step change that we saw since COVID? Any additional color on the health business by geography would be useful. Thank you.

Very good. Frédéric, do you want to talk about it, knowing that we have focused in 2024 very much on getting the UK on track, which Patrick and his team have done? And so, Patrick, maybe you talk about the other geographies, knowing that there is still some potential left to do more.

So I would start by saying we are quite pleased with the performance we got on health this year. We increased earnings by 24%. And to make things simple, roughly two-thirds of this is the UK turnaround, and a third is coming from other geographies. So we got very strong performance in a number of markets. France's earnings are going up double-digit. It's the same in our international market. We got some other European markets that perform very well at double-digit growth. We believe we have leeway in our margins on health from basically two factors. The first one is everything we have been doing on the health front in the UK, will have its full impact and will the price increase. We're all through the claims programs that we've led will have full impact this year. So I give you one example. We've increased our steering towards our preferred networks in the UK from 40% beginning of last year to close to 80%. This is a lot of value attached to that and this will be fully embedded, so pricing earning through, new pricing increase to follow the inflation, and business much stronger. And it's a big chunk of our business. And then there's another thing which is very encouraging for us, and that is reflected in those numbers, which is, as you know, we've organized ourselves differently on health. We've put together a global health unit that is managing this portfolio in a global manner. and that is basically uh specializing far more all of our entities and upskilling in particular on the technical front so what are we doing there very specifically while we're leveraging our scale you must know that we are a leader outside of the us when it comes to health certainly when it comes to eb what does this gives us it gives us first and foremost, global data sets. So we're putting the power of this data in improving the risk selection and leveraging that. That's number one. The second thing you must know about us is that We have developed proprietary technology, proprietary tools that we implement across all of our countries in two fronts. One is automated renewal portfolios, so far more sophisticated way, an automated way to drive renewal at a very granular level. So you are able to chunk your portfolio and be extremely specific account by account. Another one, a good example, is what we're doing on fraud, waste, and abuse. I would add one last thing that ties to the UK actually. We worked on the UK on pathway management. We acquired a company last year in the UK that does pathway management. Pathway management in simple terms, it's fundamentally implementing medical protocols that are doing two things, a better outcome for the customers and a cost reduction ultimately. There's a lot of science and data behind that and we plan to roll out what we have now in the UK and is proven creating a lot of value in other countries.

Thank you Patrick. We do two more questions.

Andrew and then Hello, it's Andrew Green at Autonomous. Could I ask actually three questions? Firstly, what's the benefit of lower reinsurance costs in terms of your combined ratio of 25 over 24? Secondly, all the shenanigans going on in Italy with your distribution partner and everyone else, could you give us a quick teaching as to what your opportunities, threats, and plan Bs are? And then thirdly, you say that your commercial lines business is stable. If I look at the second half combined ratio, undiscounted, XPYG, XCAT, 93.6, it's 140 basis points worse than the first half and 50 basis points worse than the second half of 23. That doesn't look stable to me.

Good. Thank you, Andrew, for three questions. The benefit of lower insurance costs, Frederick, if you could do that question, I'll do the Italy one, and if Alban could do the third one. Maybe let me start with Italy. What is quite interesting, Andrew, is that our joint venture partner has gone through a lot of different times of stormy waters, but when you look at the performance, and Patrick can go into detail, It actually is going quite well. We are growing very well with BMPS. It's a partnership that has been going on for a long time that will come to a point of either end or renewal in 2027 and we are doing everything we can to continue this partnership, and it has worked well, again, through different stormy phases. I'm not going into speculation what will happen in Italy because the landscape of different alliances is very complex. Therefore, let's wait and see what happens, and let's not lose focus operationally on continuing to perform well on this partnership.

Frédéric. On reinsurance, seeded reinsurance for us is a huge lever. We seed 2.7 billion result every year to our reinsurers, to our partners. Of course, we have a benefit because we require less capital. But this is a big amount. So there is a big lever for us if reinsurance costs are decreasing. We've seen on CAT, for instance, that reinsurance costs have decreased by somewhere between 5% and 10% at the first of January this year. So for sure, on our primary insurance business, it has a positive impact. You could argue that we also have a reinsurance company with XAXLV so that there is a partial hedge between the two, which is true.

Albon, commercial and business table, yes or no?

Yeah, sorry, Andrew. Can you say again the numbers that you are referring to? Because I...

If you strip out PYD, Kat, Andrew says it's 140 basis points worse. Is that true? Yes or no? No.

So if you compare H2 to H2, you will not see such a difference. But the question is, obviously, at the end of the year, that's the moment we look at our reserves. We do that twice a year, but we do it more formally in the second half, and that's the moment where we look at our reserving, and as I said, we want to have a prudent reserving. So you shouldn't look into that with more... There is no trend, and you shouldn't think of H2-24 as being the basis for the loss ratio of 25.

Michael, last question. Ah, well.

The same as Andrew, but maybe you can make it even more clear. How do we calculate how much your excess reserves have gone up? I think you kind of gave us some guidance on this. And the other one is a really silly one. AI, you said the costs were high this year. What's the benefit of them not increasing next year? Good.

First question, Albon. And second question, Frederic.

So on excess reserves, the... That's the silly thing about IFRS 17. We have to say it's the best estimate, and we can't say that there is an identified amount of excess reserves. Nevertheless, we are prudent. That's the way I would put it.

Michael, your question on AI? On AI. Specifically on what? Ask you. So the benefits on AI first are on various areas. I said we see and we will see some benefits on the technical result. We will see some benefits on pricing and underwriting. We will see some benefit on claims. We will see some benefits on productivity and costs. And there is an impact on the customer experience. These are the big pillars of our programs. It is fair to say that for the time being, with all the use cases we have and so on, we haven't seen yet significant impact on our P&L. And I think this is the challenge that we have over the next two years of the plan and over the three years of the next plan, which is to make sure that what works, we are able to scale it up and see really impact on the P&L. And today, and I think many companies are in the same situation, we are testing, we are experimenting, we are piloting, but if you ask me, have you seen big benefits? Not yet. We know enough to believe that there will be benefits, but we haven't seen big benefits yet on our P&L.

Michael, AI, I would say, is more a cultural challenge than a technical challenge because putting the machines right is easy. Making people come up with ideas and apply it is probably the more challenging one. We went on a journey which was relatively simple. We gave everybody access to AI through a secure GPT. so that they were in a safe environment, being able to test things out. We also taught them how to prompt and so on. We then went into an area where we said, look, launch many, many projects and pilots and see what could work and not. And we are at a point now where we say, look, we've seen what works and what doesn't work. Let's now focus on three areas. pricing and underwriting, claims, and customer experience, and let's scale in these areas because we have seen it. You can afterwards talk in particular to Patrick, Scott, and Guillaume, where they have seen areas where we can really scale. And we are at this point now, and I would rather go a controlled journey than spending too much and never see any benefits except the cost. Thank you very much for all your questions. Thanks for listening to us and we wish you a great rest of the afternoon. Thank you.