3/14/2025

speaker
Ritu Chandi
Corporate Treasurer and Head of Investor Relations, BMW Group

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the 2025 BMW Group Annual Press Conference Analysts and Investor Call. I'm delighted to be here today. My name is Ritu Chandi, Corporate Treasurer and Head of Investor Relations for BMW Group. I'm delighted to be joined by our CEO, Oliver Zipzer, our CFO, Walter Mertl, And given the dynamic sales developments across our regions, our board member for customer, brand and sales, Jochen Goller. You've heard from Oliver earlier how BMW's robust strategy and technology openness, attractive product portfolio and a resilient global footprint allows us to forge our own path. as well as setting new paradigms when it comes to tech design and user experience with the Neue Klasse. Walter has shared how we've navigated 2024, closed the year and delivered on all our guidance parameters, updated guidance parameters, despite the IBS headwinds and subdued China situation. We have also provided a comprehensive and reliable guidance for 2025 factoring in all known and decided aspects of uncertain geopolitical backdrop and tariffs to start off i believe you all have the technical instructions for the analyst and investor call and to get this call started we have the first question from patrick homel ubs good morning patrick please go ahead good morning and um

speaker
Patrick Hummel
Analyst, UBS

Thanks for taking my question. Good morning, everybody. If I may, I will have two questions for you. My first one is in regards to your capital allocation. I think it's well appreciated you're increasing the payout ratio for 2024. But you've also talked in a quite bullish manner in the past few months about the upside to capital allocation. Now, the formality is to get the AGM approval for the 10%. share buyback but of course i think what we and and many investors were hoping for is to get a bit more granularity how the actual cash return in the next couple of years is going to look like what's the run rate of share buybacks is it going to accelerate from the one billion per annum level or is it going to remain at this one billion per annum level and why did you not decide in favor of increasing the payout ratio i'm just wondering uh with the free cash flow guidance you've put out i mean you did five billion almost five billion last year you got for more than five billion this year um You don't want to build on your net financial asset position. That was my understanding, at least. So why haven't you just provided a framework for more generous cash return? That's my first question. And my second question, I just want to hear from you. Yesterday, there was a news out about Frank Weber's departure. I'm well aware of the age limits, but it's nonetheless quite unusual just ahead of Neue Klasse, which I guess is the biggest project in the company's history from an R&D standpoint. You execute such a management changeover. If you can just give us a little bit of background on that decision and the timing right now. Thank you very much.

speaker
Ritu Chandi
Corporate Treasurer and Head of Investor Relations, BMW Group

Thank you very much, Patrick. We'll start with the first question on capital allocation, payout ratio, share buyback run rate with Walter. Over to you, Walter.

speaker
Walter Mertl
CFO, BMW Group

Good morning, Patrick. So you are well aware of our capital allocation strategy. So we utilize our 30% to 40% corridor for our dividend payout. And just let me underpin that our new dividend payout ratio is the highest ever we utilized. Plus, optionally, of course, share buybacks. You see that since 2022, we are utilizing our share buyback program, also despite the fact the pace eventually has slowed down the last two years. First one, we've been quite fast, and the last one was also then finally by end of April, half a year earlier finished than eventually announced. Now, with respect to our HEM proposal for the next preparation of the 10% for the next five years. Well, we will not announce and request another AGM approval for share buybacks if you're not starting it. And we will then start the program three in time and you will get all the details of run rate, et cetera, at the time of the announcement. With respect to free cash flow, the five billions be guided for 2025, yeah, We generate then cash return and the limit is, of course, still free cash flow and how much we pay out as a dividend in 2026 for the year 2025 will be announced in 12 months. Thank you.

speaker
Ritu Chandi
Corporate Treasurer and Head of Investor Relations, BMW Group

Thank you very much, Walter. And now to your second question on Frank Weber and the background on the management decision. Oliver Zipzer, please.

speaker
Oliver Zipzer
CEO, BMW Group

Hello, good morning, Patrick. As Frank said himself this morning, the timing is actually perfect. And as you know, BMW, our strategy for putting talented into specific positions is always long-term. And it's planned, it's no surprises. So the timing of Frank's departure end of May is actually perfect because the serious development of the Neue Klasse is finished. Now we have to launch it and we have to bring it to the market and convince customers that this is a very good buying decision. So a new era is coming now and actually from my point of view having worked with Frank for the past five years on developing the Neue Klasse is actually perfect and I feel very comfortable with the view to work now with Joachim Post as the new director for R&D and also bringing Nicola Martin into the board. I look very much forward to that and it will give BMW even more stability.

speaker
Ritu Chandi
Corporate Treasurer and Head of Investor Relations, BMW Group

Thank you very much, Oliver. Thank you, Patrick. We will now move to our next caller, Jose Asmundi, JP Morgan. Good morning, Jose. Please go ahead.

speaker
Jose Asmundi
Analyst, JP Morgan

Good morning. Thank you very much for taking the question. A few questions, please. Maybe the first one for Jochen. Can you talk a little bit about how has the competitive landscape changed in China since you were there? And what are the key product launches that you're looking forward to launch in 2025 to maintain that market share and sales momentum in the region. The other two questions go to Walter and to Oliver. When I look at the margin guidance or the margin trajectory in 2024, there were a couple of things that surprised me. I think one was the declining sales we had in China, particularly in the first and second quarter of 2024. And the second was the recall on the on on the break uh topic so on the first topic walter are you looking for a stabilization of sales in the chinese market um in q1 and q2 sequentially versus q4 in your budgeting how do you think about china in that sense and then so second oliver on the recall what have been a little bit the lessons learned in 2024 uh when you think about your quality control and your relations with your suppliers. Thank you.

speaker
Ritu Chandi
Corporate Treasurer and Head of Investor Relations, BMW Group

Thank you very much, Jose. We'll start with Jochen, please, with regards to the competitive landscape in China and our product, Offensive. Thank you, Jochen.

speaker
Jochen Goller
Board Member for Customer, Brand and Sales, BMW Group

Well, good morning, Jose. So let me first maybe just refer to the global perspective. And as a global player, that's a benefit that we have four regions and we're able to buffer in a way volatilities across the regions. And as you have seen from the numbers, very strong in Europe, very strong in US and especially also strong in the rest of the world, meaning we are able to cover some of the impact of China market, number one. And that is, of course, something which is the strength of BMW Group. Secondly, when you look at the Chinese market, it's quite complex. You have some exogen, an external impact, for example, consumer confidence, and you also have some industry impact. Let me first say the fact that Chinese players are taking a higher market share in their own market should not come as any surprise. And we have always foreseen this because when you look at Europe, European OEMs are dominating and in US, of course, the US one. So the fact is known and has been factored in. China market is very big. You talk about 25 million units per year. And even if, let's say, there's a 20-25% share increase, for European manufacturers. You're still talking about a huge amount of marketplace, number one. Number two is what you see is, of course, on the one side, a restructuring of the market, strong growth of new energy vehicles comprising of fully electric and plug-in hybrid and Rex cars. And as well as, of course, consolidation of the dealer network structure. So therefore, our outlook for China is we are working heavily, intensively with the team. I've been over a few weeks across January. I'm going to go the next week and we're working very closely on a lot of measures, including restructuring our dealer network. At the same time this year, we're introducing 10 new models in China and in 26 and 27, another 20. So the good thing is that we are really at the start of our what we call model offensive. And therefore, we're quite confident that we're able to stabilize our business in China and of course, with the launch of the new cars. are able to return onto the growth price. And for example, we just started a few weeks ago with the launch of our brand new China X3 long wheelbase and the incoming order intake is very, very promising. So I think the market is restructuring. I would say we're well prepared because we also have offers in all segments. You know, some of our competitors, they only have electric cars. but there is still a 50% market share of combustion engine cars in China. And maybe it's 40 and maybe it's 30, but 30% of 25 million is still a huge marketplace. And we are able to offer very convincing products in the combustion engine segment, very convincing products in plug-in hybrid. And with the Neue Klasse over the next years, we are also able to compete. So in a nutshell, yes, at the moment, there are many, many impacts we have to face in China. We will consolidate the business and I'm pretty sure with our technology open approach that we will be one of the winners of the Chinese markets in the years to come.

speaker
Ritu Chandi
Corporate Treasurer and Head of Investor Relations, BMW Group

Thank you very much, Jochen. Moving to your second question, Jose, specifically margin guidance 2025, expectations regarding the Chinese market development in the margin guidance for first half. Walter, please.

speaker
Walter Mertl
CFO, BMW Group

Hello, Jose. So in our guidance, you, of course, raised the question, what's included? We assume China flattish. And we assume also that the first half year is running more or less on the run rate of Q4. Last year in 24, we had still a strong Q1 in China. And in Q2 it started to get impacts for and then peaking in Q3 with our IBS issue and based on that one finally we had to go ad hoc on September 10th ending with two core reasons. One was IBS in 24 and the second one was also that the market dynamics in China was different than we expected in July. 24. So that means ultimately for our guidance, run rate on Q4, 24 also for the first half here, flattish volume in China. Thank you.

speaker
Ritu Chandi
Corporate Treasurer and Head of Investor Relations, BMW Group

Thank you very much, Walter. Jose, to your last and final question, IBS recall, lessons learned and relationship to suppliers. Oliver, please.

speaker
Oliver Zipzer
CEO, BMW Group

When we look at the supplier landscape, which is a global one, As we all know, a lot of things are changing. Raw materials, refined materials, stability of suppliers, quality issues. We put a lot of effort to keep the quality promise. And even with the IBS, with the integrated brake system, there were no cars going out to customers which affected their driving abilities. So that is why we had the effect because we simply kept the cars back. The flexibility with which we reacted to this circumstance, I think it's also a strength of BMW. Now in March, we are not affected anymore of that issue, despite the size of the problem we had. We lost about 100,000 units last year, as you know. But we have the ability to react quickly. We created even more transparency about our supplier landscape and quality remains always at the heart of BMW. And that is a promise.

speaker
Ritu Chandi
Corporate Treasurer and Head of Investor Relations, BMW Group

Thank you very much, Oliver. We're moving on to Tim Rokosa from Deutsche Bank. Good morning, Tim. Please go ahead.

speaker
Tim Rokosa
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Yeah, thank you very much. And thank you very much for taking my questions. I have two, please. The first one is on the margin target as well. When we look back at the Mercedes capital markets, there was a lot of focus on costs. We didn't hear much on that from you today. You may say you have costs well under control always, but actually 5% to 7% margin is obviously not really a midterm addition. And the biggest potential hit from a tariff side, EU into US, is potentially still outstanding. China is not really improving. So what are you doing on the cost side to mitigate this? Would there be a proper update on that also from your perspective? And related to this, Walter, how should we think about the margin development this year will it be a softer starting q1 and then slowly progress very strong q4 finish what is your thinking on that side and then secondly i guess oliver to you how should we think about the future for bmw in the world that gets smaller now you've always had a very strong local for local approach much stronger than some of your peers the market really liked you for your ability to faster adapt to a changing environment ensure more stability. Now you also got pretty hit hard by a supplier issue, by the Chinese market development, by the tariffs, and the world doesn't get any easier from here. How shall we think about you bringing back BMW to this reputation of being much more agile in a more dynamic environment than some of your peers, especially from a KPI perspective on the financial side? Thank you.

speaker
Ritu Chandi
Corporate Treasurer and Head of Investor Relations, BMW Group

Thank you very much, Tim. We'll start with Walter first with regards to margin guidance 2025, cost structures and the quarterly development. Thank you, Walter.

speaker
Walter Mertl
CFO, BMW Group

Hello, Tim. So I guess as you certainly read our page 261 of our prognosebericht, I assume, you will certainly have noticed that we are one of the only ones who precisely wrote which terrorists we included, ending with all the classification and assuming in our prognosis this would last until end of 2025 with this more or less 1% hit in our EBIT margin. Others didn't do so. So and of course I also would like to underpin we said given the volatility of the geopolitical situation it is of course possible that tariffs may be reduced or further increased but just in time that's it. So that means without all these tariffs lasting currently we would have got at 6% to 8%, right? So it's just the other way around. That's the first comment I would like to do. The second one, of course, with respect to cost, of course, we are not making a big thing out of it because we are just doing it consistently and constantly on all relevant parameters, whether we speak about material cost, direct cost, cost in the budgets, capex, you name it. And we also highlighted that 2024 was the peak year of not just R&D and CapEx, but also of operational costs. And I mentioned in my speech that you will see also the turnaround on operational costs in the quarters to come whenever we report them. So we have a lot of line business functions who have their targets and they do know what they have to do. And by the way, it was always planned that way. We had the setup of the Neue Klasse. For the last two years, we're working to it, and that's why we also communicated two years ago already that 24 will be the peak year of CapEx and R&D. We didn't speak so much about operational cost, but that's, of course, the point. And with it, you will see that we will turn around also on the cost side. So that's it. With respect to the margin development you do know that we are not guiding on a quarterly basis but of course I assume it is softer than in previous years certainly because we have guidance which is lower than previous year. Absolutely right.

speaker
Ritu Chandi
Corporate Treasurer and Head of Investor Relations, BMW Group

Thank you very much, Tim. And your second question with regards to the future of BMW, I guess this could take a while. But Oliver, to respond to Tim's question on the future of BMW, supply landscape, geopolitical headwinds, please.

speaker
Oliver Zipzer
CEO, BMW Group

Tim, you asked the resilience question. To begin with, nobody is safeguarded of singularity events like with us last year, the break. You just have to flexibly deal with these issues but if you take that away all the resilience we have built into the company proves that we are on the right track. First of all, technology openness. We are not depending so much on singular drive train development in different markets. Look what is happening in the United States. Look the NEF development in China. Just for example we sold more than 100,000 BEFs which are NEF cars in China last year. we can react very swiftly on different markets developments as you see also in Europe. So that gives us resilience and stability. The second one is the global aspect which is not a global aspect in itself, it's the sum of local for local footprints we have. Let's take the tariffs from the United States, 50% of the sales volume is built in the United States which is not targeted or which is not hampered by the tariffs, you know, which gives us, again, stability and resilience. And furthermore, you have to be an innovation leader. With the NOE Classic coming up, as Frank Weber mentioned before, it will be in many respects, it will be a benchmark in the industry. We're not just catching up or something like this. This will be in terms of in terms of user interface, in terms of digital performance, it will be a benchmark in this industry. Also, that gives stability because it's not only new tech clusters for the electric cars, it will be for all of BMW. So if you ask that resilience question, we feel even more because we see these rapid changes in the environment, we feel even more safeguarded with what we have built in the last years.

speaker
Ritu Chandi
Corporate Treasurer and Head of Investor Relations, BMW Group

Thank you very much, Oliver. We'll move on to our next caller. It's Stephen Reitman from Bernstein. Stephen's joining us on audio only. Stephen, please go ahead.

speaker
Stephen Reitman
Analyst, Bernstein

Yes, thank you very much. I have a couple of questions, please. First of all, maybe technically, obviously a lot of impressive detail about the Neuklasse today. Can you comment a bit more about the cadence of the launches? How quickly will you be ramping up production at Debrecen? Obviously, you're in the pre-production phase at the moment. And also then in Munich as well in 2026 with the second vehicle. And could you comment on how we're going to see R&D costs develop, particularly in terms of capitalization versus amortization? With the acceleration, obviously, the amortization as the vehicle now actually gets to be commercialized. And my second question is a more general one about the United States. Your principal plant, Spartanburg, South Carolina, is in a very red state. I think it carried the Republicans by about, Trump carried about two-thirds, the one-third. How are you able to communicate that? the impact of policies on the state level about what's going on in terms of tariffs and these other kind of policies and how it's impacting your business and potentially impacting employment that is obviously hard to talk for in the state as well. Thank you very much.

speaker
Ritu Chandi
Corporate Treasurer and Head of Investor Relations, BMW Group

Thank you very much, Stephen. We'll start off with your first question with regards to the ramp up of Neue Klasse with Jochen, please. Jochen, over to you.

speaker
Jochen Goller
Board Member for Customer, Brand and Sales, BMW Group

Yeah, I think I would start and then maybe Oliver, if you'd like to add a few things. So in terms of market introduction, I think it will be rather quickly because Neue Klasse, very important, is not a car. It's a complete family. And so we're going to start by the end of the year with the start of production and the first introduction of our iX3. And then with only two years, we will have six Neue Klassen models on the market worldwide. Indeed, we will start here in Europe. But very quickly, we will also bring Neue Klassen to our markets, US and China. So first of all, by the end of the year, we will press the button. Next year, you will see the iX3 in all our markets. And then, as I said, within only two years, a family of six. in addition, of course, to other cars. So we must not forget that we are technology open. So very important is at the same time, we also introduce brand new plug-in hybrid and combustion engine models and the Neue Cluster technology, your IOX and some other technology is in all of those cars. And I would suggest that Oliver, maybe you add some more comments.

speaker
Oliver Zipzer
CEO, BMW Group

As Jochen mentioned, it's not only about the first car, the iX3, which will be launched this year. And you're right, we are in the pre-series phase. And in November, we will launch the car. And very early in 2026, the first car of the Neue Klasse will be in the market. But it's much more. It's the basis for 40 new models or reworked models until 2027. And the technology clusters of the Neue Klasse, whether it's the batteries, whether it's the digital functions of the car, you will see in many other cars inside of two years. So it's not only about that one car. And we are right on track, by the way. There will be no postponements in any launches. We are ready to go. And as we said this morning, this car has already 1.5 million kilometers driven. So we will get a very high-quality, stable product. And whenever we drive the cars, and we drive them a lot, we are super excited about the success of these cars. on the United States question. We started to invest in the United States 30 years ago. We have now invested overall $14 billion. We are currently spending another $2 billion in the United States. So whatever is happening now we kind of preempted it already what is happening there because that is clear for many, many years now. If you want to be a major player in a big market you have to be a local player. that is in China the way of course in Europe that's the case anyway but also in the United States and what is happening now we as I said before it kind of gives us some tailwind what we've done in the past and we will have to look now in the next coming years whether we need in specific technologies to do more investments we will have to see but we are not in a rush with that.

speaker
Ritu Chandi
Corporate Treasurer and Head of Investor Relations, BMW Group

Thank you, Jochen. Thank you, Oliver. Going back to your question on capitalization and depreciation, especially with Neue Klasse and what that means for the P&L. Walter, please.

speaker
Walter Mertl
CFO, BMW Group

Hello, Stephen. So with respect to our R&D as well as CapEx position, we will have a meaningful reduction in both 24 versus 25. First of all, on the R&D side, we will have more or less the same level of capitalization as you saw end of 24. And with that in total, you see finally also a positive effect already on the free cash flow in 25. I think that is the most relevant thing. And that was the question. And on the operational side, I mentioned already that we also have a turnaround there.

speaker
Ritu Chandi
Corporate Treasurer and Head of Investor Relations, BMW Group

Thank you very much. Our next caller is Horst Schneider from Bank of America. Please go ahead, Horst.

speaker
Horst Schneider
Analyst, Bank of America

Yes, good morning, and thanks for taking my questions as well. The most important ones that I have is on Neue Klasse and the outlook for the pricing. We heard from Mercedes at their full-year figures that they don't expect that EVs can be priced higher than ICE vehicles in the future. I'm not totally clear. What's your view on that matter? So maybe you can explain that a bit. And the other questions are as well on pricing. I know it's for you difficult to talk about pricing in these calls, but maybe you can explain us why you expect price mix in 25 to be better than in 24. And when we talk about tariffs, you aim then to pass the tariffs on to customers or how is the mass working here on the net perspective? Thank you.

speaker
Ritu Chandi
Corporate Treasurer and Head of Investor Relations, BMW Group

Thank you very much, Horst. As you know, we do not give price indications on calls. And in fact, it's difficult to comment on pricing across different markets and regions. But I will hand over the question on Neuer Klasse pricing to Walter, followed by the price differentials between Bevanice as well as the 2025 expectations. Walter, please.

speaker
Walter Mertl
CFO, BMW Group

Thank you. Hello Horst. So as we can say more or less worldwide we have a different pricing set anyway because the pricing is always depending on the market potentials and we utilize all potentials in the individual markets. And we have markets where EV cars have more or less the same price like ICE and we have the one way or the other way around. So that is not the key ultimately. We just aim for the right price in the right market. And with respect to your question whether pricing is getting better, so what we mentioned also in our statement of our prognosis report, we just said that the revenue, the average of the revenue per unit, will be on previous level. That means on the average of 2024. And this is in sync with our planning. So the pricing eventually you refer is eventually a transactional price in individual markets. But of course, we have to consider the net sales revenue per average in our books. Thank you.

speaker
Ritu Chandi
Corporate Treasurer and Head of Investor Relations, BMW Group

The question with regards to us passing tariff increases in the United States on to our customers, particularly with regards to 3 Series. Jochen, if you'd like to take that question, please. Thank you.

speaker
Jochen Goller
Board Member for Customer, Brand and Sales, BMW Group

Yes. I mean, there was one communication because we obviously have customers who ordered cars. And this is basically where we price protect those cards, which I think is fair in the sense of the customer. How we deal with this in the long term, to be honest, has to be seen because the situation is extremely volatile. And we will deal with that once we know how the customs and tariff situation is developing. I think what we are doing right now is clearly, in our opinion, a very fair business behavior and has been agreed with our dealers.

speaker
Ritu Chandi
Corporate Treasurer and Head of Investor Relations, BMW Group

Thank you very much, Jochen. We're moving on to Henning Kostmann from Barclays, audio only. Thank you, Henning. Please go ahead.

speaker
Henning Kostmann
Analyst, Barclays

Yeah, hi. Thank you so much for taking my question. Perhaps we can stay on that particular topic. Can I just ask conceptually, if tariffs are in a magnitude of 25% and we're now on a margin corridor of 5% to 7%, can you just help us understand a little bit what the potential offsets are? I mean, there's not a lot of room to absorb very much, you know, if you would have had to pass through a 25% price increase to offset the tariff. But can you just explain conceptually, is there any room or any appetite on your part to digest any of it? There are other parts of the supply chain, perhaps the dealers that could swallow some of it. If you could just help us conceptually a little bit. And then the other question is more on the financials. Walter, sorry to come back on the seasonality. I understand you don't guide by courses. But, you know, your Q1 in 2023 was still 12%. Last year was 9%. So I think I should assume it would be down on the prior year Q1s. Can you perhaps say if it's inside the corridor, in the full-year corridor, or could it be outside the bottom end of the corridor? Because a lot of your... european oem peers have have suggested quite a second half loaded uh margin trajectory and perhaps finally if i can squeeze one more um just to understand what would take you to the top or bottom of the margin guidance range as well because my understanding is the tariffs are excluded um so the you know the current ones are obviously included the the potential additional ones are excluded but still we we have a two and a half billion wide margin range. So if you could just help us understand a little bit what would take you conceptually to the top or bottom. Thank you very much.

speaker
Ritu Chandi
Corporate Treasurer and Head of Investor Relations, BMW Group

Thank you very much Henning. Before we jump to the questions I've just been asked to again give everybody a reminder please to raise your hands to ask your questions. We have a couple more people waiting in line but please do so. Going back to your very first question Henning with regards to tariffs, what has been included in the guidance for the year and what would be the impact of a larger tariff? and what would we be able to swallow? Over to you, Walter.

speaker
Walter Mertl
CFO, BMW Group

Hello, Henning. So I'm pleased to mention again which tariffs we included. So first of all, the European Commission had extra tariffs for EV cars imported from China And this will have an impact, should they last until end of this year, of a mid-three-digit euros. Furthermore, the Mexico-Canada tariff into the U.S. is 25%, you mentioned. If that would last until end of this year, that would also have a mid-three-digit million impact. And then furthermore, we have, of course, alloy and steel imported into the USA. This one we classified as a high double-digit million euros impact, whilst the current tariffs between China and US, forwards and backwards, would have an impact of a low three-digit million impact. This is what we classified and this ended up to our judgment of roughly 1% impact on our EBITs. That's why we had at current tariffs in place as per March 12th, the new guidance of 5 to 7. Without it, it would have been 6 to 8. That is what we code. Page 261. Just for reference. And I guess you also raised the question with respect to the seasonality on the quarter. Yes, it will be inside the full year corridor. And in quarter one, it's usually the upper side than the lower side. That seasonality is more or less still the same.

speaker
Ritu Chandi
Corporate Treasurer and Head of Investor Relations, BMW Group

Thank you very much, Walter. And again, to reiterate, with regards to the guidance, there are no mitigation measures, to your other point, no mitigation measures that are factored into the guidance, as Walter described. We're moving on to our next caller, Michael Punset from DZ Bank. Michael, your line is open now. Please go ahead.

speaker
Michael Punset
Analyst, DZ Bank

Yes, Michael Punset, good morning. I have two questions. First one is a clarification. In the press call, you mentioned that you have built up provisions of 1 billion for tariffs. Can you explain, was it booked in the automotive segment in Q4? That is my question on this topic. And the second one is, can you also explain a bit of the possibility to offset US tariffs for imports with your cars exported from the US?

speaker
Ritu Chandi
Corporate Treasurer and Head of Investor Relations, BMW Group

Thanks. Thank you very much. Michael, a question again on the billion euros tariff potential and the offset. Walter, please.

speaker
Walter Mertl
CFO, BMW Group

Hello, Michael. Well, I guess there's a misinterpretation. The 1 billion euro is just what I mentioned to Henning. That is our classification. There is no provision booked. There is no provision booked for these tariffs. Tariff just will hit, first of all, my balance sheet once we have import transactions and will hit my P&L, of course, once we sell the car. So that is clear. There is no provision for tariffs, certainly not. And with respect to offset of U.S. tariffs on imports, so let's speak about export. First of all, once we produce cars in Spartanburg and we export those ones into the world, these tariffs, as far as we have the right understanding on all the rules on papers, will not hit the cost of these exported cars, but certainly these ones which will stay in the U.S., That is our clear understanding. And with respect to other offset potentials, of course, we are observing the way. We have different instruments. We are looking for the supply chain first of all. We have a look on the mix. We could produce more cars in Spartanburg for the U.S., So we have different aspects we will foster. And of course, we have the understanding that hopefully these terrorists will not stay until the end of this year and we will have hopefully the positive impact automatically.

speaker
Ritu Chandi
Corporate Treasurer and Head of Investor Relations, BMW Group

Thank you very much, Walter. Our next caller in line is Daniel Schwarz from Stifel. Good morning, Daniel.

speaker
Daniel Schwarz
Analyst, Stifel

Yes, good morning. One question, again, on cash allocation. As you stated, highest ever dividend payout ratio for 24, but it's still a significant cut here over here. And my question is, given the huge amount of net cash you have, would you consider maybe less focus on the payout ratio going forward and more focus on the Absolute dividend, even if that means that occasionally it's above 40%. And the second question is a more technical question on Q4. Could you clarify what the year-over-year impact was from guarantee provisions? Did you release provisions in Q4, and did that have a positive impact on the EBIT margin? Thank you.

speaker
Ritu Chandi
Corporate Treasurer and Head of Investor Relations, BMW Group

Thank you very much, Daniel. Starting with your first question, probably a very popular question today, Walter, cash allocation, dividend payout, and what it means for the corridor going forward. Please.

speaker
Walter Mertl
CFO, BMW Group

Hello Daniel. So with respect to our principles how we use the cash allocation for dividend as well as since 2022 for share buybacks that hasn't changed per se but I just want to underpin again that we have this highest payout ratio this year which should be already a signal to the world that we are sharing more ratio on the dividend payment than before. And of course, optionally, we utilize the share buyback on top of it. And if you do the calculation, we spent this year already, with respect to 2024, the full free cash flow per dividend or share buyback, so close to 100%. And on top of it, if you calculate that on a payout ratio inclusive to share buybacks then we cross the road of 40% not just for 24 but also already a little bit for 23. So I think we currently still stay to our principles and I think that is good for our company. And with respect to your question on the warranty side, I think we have to have a look into the year 23 Q4 because in 23 we had an extra warranty provision step up and that didn't happen in Q4 2024 and that's the reason why it eventually looks like we would have had a release or less provisions for and ultimately in Q4 2024 we had less additional provisions than we had in Q4 2023. That is the key differentiation.

speaker
Ritu Chandi
Corporate Treasurer and Head of Investor Relations, BMW Group

Thank you very much, Walter. Ladies and gentlemen, we have come to an end of our investor and analyst Q&A today. Thank you very much for joining us and thank you for your time. The team and I remain at your disposal for any follow-up questions you may have. We look forward to seeing you in person at our AGM on May 14th here at the Olympic Hall in Munich and also at our Investor and Analyst Day on July 15th and 16th where you will get a preview and experience of the Neue Klasse and get to interact with management and many experts. Thank you very much.

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