10/24/2024

speaker
Conference Operator
Moderator

Good morning, good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Basie's quarterly conference call and audio webcast to discuss companies' 2024 third quarter results. You can register for the conference call or log in to the audio webcast via Basie's website, www.basie.com. Joining us today are Mr. Richard Blakeman, Chief Executive Officer, and Mrs. Andrea Koh, Senior Vice President, Finance. Currently, all participants are in listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question and answer session and instructions will follow at that time. As a reminder, ladies and gentlemen, this conference is being recorded and cannot be reproduced in whole or in part without written permission from the company. I'd like to remind everyone that on today's call, management will be making forward-looking statements. All statements other than statements of historical facts may be forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements reflect basis current views and assumptions regarding future events, many of which are by nature inherently uncertain and beyond basis control. Actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements due to various risks and uncertainties. including but not limited to factors that are discussed in the company's most recent periodic and current reports filled with the AFM. Such forward-looking statements, including guidance provided during today's call, speak only as of this date, and BASIS does not intend to update them in light of new information or future developments, nor does BASIS undertake any obligation to update the forward-looking statements. I would now like to return the call over to Mr. Richard Bleekman.

speaker
Richard Blakeman
Chief Executive Officer

Thank you. Thank you for today's call. We'd like to review the key highlights for our third quarter and nine months, ended September 13, 2024, and update you on the market, our strategy, and outlook. First, some overall thoughts on the third quarter. Bezi reported significant growth in revenue, orders, and net income in the third quarter of this year versus the comparable period last year, as we continue to benefit from strength in our advanced packaging product portfolio for AI applications despite continued headwinds in mainstream and Chinese assembly equipment markets. For the quarter, revenue of 156.6 million euros and orders of 151.8 million euros grew by 27% and 19.2% respectively versus the third quarter last year due primarily to strong growth by computing and user markets including hybrid bonding, photonics and other AI applications. Such growth was partially offset by weakness in automotive and Chinese end user markets continuing trends we've experienced this year. Net income of 46.8 million euros grew by 11.8 million euro, or 33.7%, reflecting a number of favorable trends, including increased advanced packaging systems revenue, increased gross margins related thereto, and better than forecasted operating expense levels, despite continued growth in R&D spending, for next generation hybrid bonding and TCP systems. For the first nine months of this year, revenue of 454.1 million euros and orders of 464.8 million euros increased by 8.3% and 21.7% respectively. Growth was due to significantly higher demands by computing and user markets, particularly for AI-related hybrid bonding and photonics applications, and from Taiwanese and Korean subcontractors. Net income of in total 122.7 million euros was approximately equal to year-to-date 2023, as higher revenue and gross margins this year were offset by higher R&D spending in support of wafer-level assembly development and share-based compensation expense. Our financial position improved as well in the third quarter of this year, with net cash increasing to 110.7 million euros at the end of the quarter, an improvement of 36.3 million euros versus the second quarter of this year, and 20.5 million euros versus the third quarter last year. despite increased share buyback activity. Total cash and deposits at quarter end grew to 637.4 million euros, including net proceeds from our senior note offering in July of this year, which positions us favorably for anticipated growth in the next market upcycle. Next, I'd like to speak a little bit about the current market environment and our strategy. The primary trends affecting the assembly equipment market in the first half of this year continued in the third quarter. Namely, strong growth in AI-related applications were offset by ongoing weakness in mainstream assembly applications. As a result, Tech Insights further reduced its 2024 growth forecast to 2.9% from 9.3% previously with a strong cyclical upturn pushed out to 2025 and 26. As we've noted previously, assembly equipment market trends have diverged from front-end markets for the past two years, primarily given the absence of geopolitical trade restrictions in our market segment. We are pleased with our strategic progress in 2024 in a challenging market environment. BASIC continues to expand its development spending in support of the industry's leading advanced packaging portfolio and has seen significant growth in both hybrid bonding orders and revenue this year. During the third quarter this year, we received substantial orders for hybrid bonding systems from existing and new customers and anticipate additional orders in the fourth quarter this year from a variety of customers as adoption continues to expand globally. We've also received increased interest for Basie's TCB, next system from leading logic and memory customers, which positions us favorably for anticipated growth in the next generation 2.5D and HBM applications. As such, We have taken steps recently to expand our advanced packaging production capacity in anticipation of future growth. In 2025, we intend to approximately double the cleanroom capacity of our Malaysian facilities and increase R&D and process development for hybrid bombing and TCB capabilities and customer support at our Singapore facility. Now a few words about our guidance. Looking forward to the fourth quarter, we expect expanded adoption for hybrid bonding applications to be mitigated by ongoing weakness in mainstream assembly markets. For the fourth quarter this year, we forecast that revenue will be flat plus or minus 10% versus the third quarter, partially due to shipment delays by a customer for certain hybrid bonding systems scheduled for delivery which were scheduled for delivery in the fourth quarter of this year. In addition, gross margins are anticipated to range between 63% and 65% based on our projected product mix. Aggregate operating expenses are forecasted to be flat to up 5% versus the third quarter this year. This concludes my prepared remarks. Before we begin Q&A, I would like to remind everyone to limit your questions to two at a time, so all participants have an opportunity to ask questions. Operator.

speaker
Conference Operator
Moderator

Sure, thank you. If you would like to ask a question or make a contribution to this call, please press star one on your telephone keypad. We kindly request you to limit the number of questions to two per person. We will take the first question from line The line is open now. Please go ahead.

speaker
spk09

Yes. Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. The first one is related to the hybrid bonding orders for Q3. Could you give us a bit more detail on those that you've received the past quarter? I was just looking for a bit more granularity, like did a new account join? Were the orders somewhat in line with your expectations? And I think for the first nine months of the year, how many units have you effectively shipped? I think at the end of 2023, you talked about an installed base of 40 revenue producing units, but curious where you are today. That's my first question.

speaker
Richard Blakeman
Chief Executive Officer

Well, that's a lot of information. Anyway, in the third quarter, we received continued orders for hybrid bombers. primarily for volume production at a major customer, which we have been serving from the beginning. At the same time, we added new customers to the hybrid bonding technology development. As we said in the press release, we now have received over 100 orders for hybrid bonding systems and as we have a certain backlog and one of them clearly has to do with the order received in q2 where we said that a certain part will be shipped in q4 and the rest in the first half of next year and we repeated that comment because it also has an impact on our revenue guidance for Q4. So we also added in the comments that we expect continued orders in Q4. It is always difficult to forecast precise numbers, also because the industry has a tendency to order machines simply based on end market demands. And that's not always the same quarter by quarter. We don't disclose further detailed information about customer specifics, products, and number of machines.

speaker
spk09

Okay. Thank you. And then I hope that answers your question. Yeah, that's fair enough. I just had an additional one on hybrid memory. I think you've been talking before about how the Korean memory chip makers are planning to use both DCB and hybrid bonding for HBM4. It seems like one is being more explicit about hybrid bonding adoption than the other, but both are leaving sort of the final decision to their customers based on varying requirements. Could you help us understand how that works in practice? What are sort of the trade-offs in the more specific scenarios that memory chip makers and their customers are considering when deciding which technology to go with? Thank you.

speaker
Richard Blakeman
Chief Executive Officer

Excellent. Well, it has to do with performance. So far, the performance of hybrid bonded devices... clearly demonstrate that that technology offers higher performance, faster circuitry, less energy required. So that positive part of hybrid technology, apart from the fact that you can connect smaller geometries, then with reflow processes is what is driving the continued adoption of hybrid bonding over you can say conventional reflow based processes. So what the world explains in different ways, the three big memory manufacturers is that in one way or the other, they expect a side by side development of using this technology for HBM4, but certainly HBM5, where hybrid bonding becomes to be expected more critical as dimensions decrease. We are involved in this wonderful challenge with both technologies. So on the one hand, the TCB, So the reflow process, and on the other hand, the hybrid bonding. And time will tell. And especially in 2025, it should become more clear which direction will prevail and with how many systems in percentage, or let's say capacity and percentage. Probably for HBM4, it will only be a very high end range using hybrid. That's how it looks today. But that can also change due to the simple reason that the performance in the end determines which technology to use.

speaker
spk09

Okay. Thank you very much, Richard.

speaker
Conference Operator
Moderator

Okay. Next question. Robert Sanders from Deutsche Bank. The line is open now. Please go ahead.

speaker
Robert Sanders

yeah i uh take it thanks for taking my question um i just had a question about tcb so you've talked about increasing capacity uh in hybrid bonding uh but in tcb we don't really have an idea of how large the capacity corridor is in terms of you know units per month or anything like that can you give us some kind of uh estimate uh of that and i'll have a follow-up thanks yes in a in a similar way um although the systems are different but from

speaker
Richard Blakeman
Chief Executive Officer

a manufacturing, let's say technology, they're not that different. So the number of hours required to assemble such a machine, to test it, and they also require assembly in clean room environments. And that will lead to a similar number of systems per month, 15. is currently, but then with the extended capacity in Malaysia coming online second half of next year, we should be able to do more. As we said in the call, we intend to double that capacity. But yeah, from let's say a broader perspective, the number of DC machines for HBM applications can be significantly higher than hybrid bonding for HBM simply because the HBM4 as it looks today is produced with percentage-wise more reflow TC process than with hybrid bonding. But again, your question, we can build a similar number of machines as compared to hybrid bombers.

speaker
Robert Sanders

Got it. And just as a follow-up, when you are doing these kind of vendor selection assessments on TCB, you talk about bond pad pitch and all of those sort of things. Is it Hanmei that is the incumbent typically? Are they the kind of competitor to be? Or is it also ASMPT, KNS, others, just so we understand things?

speaker
Richard Blakeman
Chief Executive Officer

Well, the key is, as you said, bump that pitch, so the design, the architecture of the device. Can you connect that with a reflow process or are the dimensions too small to say it in simple terms? Everyone is looking at that same challenge. we have the advantage that our TCnext has been designed in particular for below 20 micron bond bed pitch. So it is much more accurate. We also are already producing data for below 10 micron bond bed pitch. So you come very close to where the crossover point to hybrid bonding is. Yes, we always benchmark versus competition. That's what our customers do every single day. And in the end, it's a matter of cost of ownership. So which system produces the most attractive cost of ownership? That's a matter of yield, so repeatability of process, and at the same time, the throughput. And that combination, and then with big calculation with cost of footprint and energy, results in a cost of ownership model. And that's how we compare to any competitor.

speaker
Robert Sanders

Got it. Thanks a lot.

speaker
Conference Operator
Moderator

Thank you. We will take the next question from line Madeline Jenkins from UBS. The line is open now. Please go ahead.

speaker
spk06

Hi, Richard. Can I get an update on your Generation 3 hybrid bonding tool? I was just wondering when now you think that's going to come to market and roughly what ASP? Thank you.

speaker
Richard Blakeman
Chief Executive Officer

Well, that's a great question. First of all, the Generation 1+, which we don't call 2 because it's on exactly the same platform, from the over 100 systems, which are now on order, more than half is this generation one plus. So the industry is moving to ever tighter specifications. And the 50 nanometer, which is generation two, we call it generation two, not three, that's just in the name, should be ready by the mid of next year. Already today, We can demonstrate that we're very close to that 50. So the system architecture is different. It needs more dynamic balancing. And we have succeeded also with this concept to achieve a higher throughput. And that will be very important for this next round. So two major projects. aspects one being the accuracy so remember we started 150 200 nanometers generation one generation one plus 100 nanometer which is today the yeah let's say the sweet spot and then the next is 50 as of the second half of next year and combining that with with a concept which offers a higher throughput

speaker
spk06

Perfect, thank you. And then just wanted to follow up on the capacity expansion. What kind of triggered this decision? Was it an indication from a customer for higher volumes, or was it more just an internal decision, I guess, based on the long-term growth potential of the technologies? Thank you.

speaker
Richard Blakeman
Chief Executive Officer

No, we don't invest because we like to satisfy ourselves. No, it's clearly driven by customers, customers who continuously confirm in one way or the other. So one way is the logic. The adoption in logic is becoming ever more clear and demonstrated. Then we have the HBM question. As discussed in an earlier question, that could, when that happens, lead to more orders than for logic. The combination is always more on logic than on, let's say, more on memory than on logic. Then we have the broader adoption for high-end smartphones. So the AI, the HAI introduction, that also could lead to significantly more machines. So we have to be ready for that. And with the decision based on customer investment models, we should be ready second half of next year to be able to offer that capacity. Hopefully they need it. If not, then it may take a bit longer. But anyway, it's based on customer programs. Great.

speaker
spk06

Thank you.

speaker
Conference Operator
Moderator

We will take the next question from line Charles Xu from Needham and Company. The line is open now. Please go ahead.

speaker
Charles Xu

Thanks for taking the question. Richard, I want to start with the TCB. We've been hearing that your two competitors were working on a TCB qualification at the leading foundry in Taiwan. One of them might have seen some big challenges recently and might have failed. Qualification, so the folks I spoke with, investors I spoke with, they were looking at the other vendor, whether they can step up. But my question for you is this. Does this open up the opportunity for Betsy to position TCB Next as this leading foundry? And if it does, when do you think you can shift a qualification system And just give us some thoughts at this point. Thank you.

speaker
Richard Blakeman
Chief Executive Officer

Well, of course, it offers opportunities. And it's directly linked to the anticipated smaller geometries moving. Bumped pitch is moving below 20 micron. 18 is the next standard. where our system initially has been developed for. And qualifications take typically a year. So one should expect that in these next rounds that they should come, yeah, let's say in the second half of next year. but it definitely offers us, um, opportunities. Um, and, and yeah, in particular for those applications where the bump that pitches become more critical.

speaker
Charles Xu

Got it. Um, the other question I have, uh, uh, Richard, um, the, The hybrid bonding system, you talk about a little bit delay. I'm not sure if you actually gave the color, but is it delayed, let's say, to next quarter? Or is it more delayed a little bit more into the future? Can you give us a sense of the latest by how much?

speaker
Richard Blakeman
Chief Executive Officer

Well, let me make that clear. try to make that more clear. We announced this order, remember, in May. We announced a big order, and we also mentioned that it would be partly shipped this year and next year. And to be a bit more clear, we anticipated that More shipments out of the total this year, and then the remaining part early next year. Well, the split has been slightly different. So in a sense, about half will be shipped before the end of this year, and the other half in the first half of next year, first quarter, maybe April. That's the current planning. But it's not a message that it is delayed by no means. There's an enormous customer drive behind this. Part, as we also shared earlier, is installed in the US. Another part is installed in Asia. And that is causing some logistics and people have to be trained. So don't misread this message that The delay is caused by delay in adoption.

speaker
Charles Xu

Thanks, Richard. Very helpful.

speaker
Conference Operator
Moderator

Thank you. We will take the next question from line Mark Hesling from ING. The line is up now. Please go ahead.

speaker
Mark Hesling

Yes, thank you. I would like to put that number of the 100 machines into perspective with your scenarios. It seems a bit that you're now then trending toward the mid-case of the scenario for 24, 25. I think you always said that in that period it's predominantly logic. So could you maybe link that to how you see the logic adoption? Is it like your mid-case or is it maybe even a bit better than you initially had? Thank you.

speaker
Richard Blakeman
Chief Executive Officer

Well, excellent, Mark. Well, as always, these questions looking forward are difficult to answer precisely, but the trend is very clear. As I said earlier, the adoption for high-end logic is ever more confirmed. So it started initially, as we all know, in Taiwan, And then quarter by quarter, it increased and more customers were engaged in also qualifying this technology. The next adoption in larger volume with this U.S. customer increased adoption with a broader customer range in Taiwan, also at at certain subcontractors they are preparing to offer this technology to the market so the adoption so far is and we've said that every quarter i think is according to to the model we shared some three years ago where um yeah you have an initial phase and you could expect a major mainstream market adoption as of 2526. And then three specific applications, one logic, and then we have the HBM, where it's still unclear where the inroad will be. Will it be at the high end of four or will it be only at five? And then we have the adoption for chiplets and especially the chiplets applied in high end smartphone applications. And logic looks today that it follows what we put out as a model and having hit no roadblocks so far. So it follows nicely and maybe somewhat better, but that's definitely the case. That's what it is. So far, continued adoption, broader customer base, adding new customers, all preparing to own this technology, eventually for mainstream applications. That's how you can best characterize what's happening. I hope that answers your question, Mark.

speaker
Mark Hesling

Yes, that's clear. The second question is actually in the Honda that you now communicated for, it's called the following production. Is there also already the OSATs in there, or is this more at least just testing at this stage?

speaker
Richard Blakeman
Chief Executive Officer

As I tried to explain, many are evaluating testing samples in preparation. There's one OSAT who was early on. But then I should add the Centre of Excellence in Singapore, Applied Centre of Excellence, where we have this hybrid bonding application ongoing. Same in our own hybrid bonding center in Singapore. They're next to each other and we sort of split the work because of the quantity of work and that is continuously increasing. So that's a center where all those customers do tests for a variety of devices and not only for logic and memory but especially those chiplets where they expect use in many end applications which simply use the smaller design technology.

speaker
Mark Hesling

Great. Thanks.

speaker
Conference Operator
Moderator

Thank you. We will take the next question from Aditya from HSBC. The line is open now. Please go ahead.

speaker
spk01

Yeah, good morning, guys. So firstly, I just wanted to understand about this capacity deployment. Now, one of your peers in Korea, they're talking about building capacity for 420 TCB bonders a year by 2025. And this has led some to conclude that the leading HBM vendor will stick with TCB in their HBM for much longer than many are anticipating. So I just wanted to think about how you think about the risk of ending up with overcapacity with the capacity deployments you're talking about today? And then I've got to follow up.

speaker
Richard Blakeman
Chief Executive Officer

Well, that's an interesting question. Yeah, it's always possible that competitors take the entire market. So then our capacity is surplus. It can also be the other way around. Okay.

speaker
spk01

Understood. And maybe just, you know, tied to that, you know, there's been recent articles talking about Samsung using hybrid bonders from its subsidiary semis to show 16 high HBM. And within the Taiwanese ecosystem, there's a company called Soltech making a lot of seems like progress on hybrid bonding tools. So I just wanted to again hear your thoughts on how you think about your market share trending within hybrid bonding and the resulting impact on profitability as you look forward.

speaker
Richard Blakeman
Chief Executive Officer

Well, also this question is hard to answer. Is this a conference call about our competitors or is it about us? I don't know your information.

speaker
spk01

Sorry, I'm just trying to understand your prospects by assessing your competition. Yeah, if you can't answer, then it is what it is. I've got a few more questions, but I'll rejoin the queue, given I've asked my two questions.

speaker
Conference Operator
Moderator

Thank you. We will take the next question from line Andrew, guiding your thumb. CT, the line is open now. Please go ahead.

speaker
Mark Hesling

Good afternoon, Richard. Thank you for taking the question. I wanted to come back to combining some of the answers you've given on TCB and hybrid bonding as well as the capacity expansion. Can I take it from your answers that really the visibility or I suppose the customer conversations you're having that is giving you the confidence to expand that capacity clearly coming more from the hybrid bonding side than the TCB side, particularly given what you described as the TCB orders. So the qualification process has begun, but it's going to take the better part of a year, and so really you don't have, you're hopeful, but you don't have as firm visibility there. So is it more for hybrid than it is for TCB, but you have that flexibility depending on the market mix come this time next year or the year after that?

speaker
Richard Blakeman
Chief Executive Officer

Exactly. That's how it is. So driven by the ongoing, you could say, success of hybrid bonding, demonstrated by orders received and also many installed. So applications becoming ever more clear and being ready for, yeah, let's say more sizable orders than received so far. And at the same time being prepared for TC applications, which are also becoming more clear. As indicated earlier, we have now demonstrated not only to be able to produce TC devices with 20 micron bond-pad pitch, but even successfully demonstrated below 10 micron bond-pad pitch. So there are many applications which will be using either or. And so, yeah, in a broader answer, it's for both.

speaker
Mark Hesling

Understood. Thank you. And I suppose related to that, the point on PCB where you're describing the qualification process, we shouldn't therefore be expecting much in the way of order announcements from you regarding TC until maybe second quarter or more likely third quarter next year? Or could something happen sooner?

speaker
Richard Blakeman
Chief Executive Officer

Well, that's always the question. So the data I refer to is customer data. And that could well translate in orders. But the timing is always different. yeah let's say hard to but that's the same for hybrid plumbing and the same for the conventional business but it looks ever more solid so um time will tell thank you very much thank you i'll take the next question from line martin meredith from audio the line is open please go ahead

speaker
spk08

Hi, thanks for taking my question. My first question is on hybrid burning adoption in the following quarters. I know it's a hard question to answer, but since your US customer already ordered a significant amount in Q2, I guess it would be more driven by Taiwan now in the next following quarters. So what do you think will drive more capacity expansion in Taiwan now? Is it mostly about still AMD and the MI300, for instance, or do you expect most of the capacity expansion in Taiwan now to be more driven by new customers?

speaker
Richard Blakeman
Chief Executive Officer

Combination. And it's an excellent question. And it's also, one must remember, this Taiwan customer does not share any customer data. So either we hear that from the customer itself and AMD is pretty open in sharing with the world the type of devices and also the advantages using hybrid technology. But there are also many other customers at that same Taiwanese customer qualifying for different applications. And we can only, let's say, derive from the number of machines installed and also for the type of devices produced on those machines, that it can be a much broader audience using this technology. So there is this tendency that the adoption is broadening. That should then lead going forward also to a larger market using this technology.

speaker
spk08

Thank you, that's very helpful. If I have a follow-up, I also have a question on the system coming in 2025 with 50 nanometer accuracy. what we should code Gen2. Do you think the Gen2 system will capture most of the high brain bending demand for two nanometer and below logic applications? And second element, is it fair to assume that this Gen2 system will not be used for memory since the accuracy requirements seems to be lower?

speaker
Richard Blakeman
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, you're also very right in your assumptions. memory is less critical in that sense than logic. So it tends to be more likely to use in next generation logic below two nanometer design geometry. That is sort of what we hear. Second half next year, the first system, which will certainly take, um, um, six months, nine months to, to qualify, um, being ready for that next generation. There's a lot of, um, customer, um, um, let's say pool they wanted early as possible. Um, so that definitely is tied to this next generation below two nanometers. They simply, want to be ready. But then for logic, memory may follow quite some time thereafter.

speaker
spk08

Okay. Thank you very much, Hacham. Thank you.

speaker
Conference Operator
Moderator

Thank you. We will take the next question from line Martin from BNB Parabas. The line is open now. Please go ahead.

speaker
spk10

Yes. Hi. Good afternoon. I have two questions, please. The first one is just to come back on these delayed shipments. So just to confirm, you will still ship half of this big Q2 order in Q4 and the other half in the first half of next year. That's right, right? And that would imply that the mainstream assembly tool shipments or other tools like PCB would be down quarter and quarter in Q4. Is that also right?

speaker
Richard Blakeman
Chief Executive Officer

Well, it's roughly, as we indicated, flat compared to Q3, plus minus 10%. And that is the, let's say, uncertainty in current market. And that plus minus is more related to the conventional market than to the new technologies. I hope that specifies it. So the uncertainty is not around the hybrid bondings.

speaker
spk10

Okay, great. And then I have a second question. It's on glass packaging. I mean, there has been a lot of news flow using glass or glass panels as a substrate and packaging in the future. Just wondering how this would impact Bessie and if this would require any type of bond generation, how are your positions there?

speaker
Richard Blakeman
Chief Executive Officer

Well, we're also definitely engaged in the development using glass substrates. It has many advantages, glass known for a long time, and it could become very important in these two and a half 3D device technologies where glass basically replaces organic substrate or interposed material. And it has of course an impact on how Chips are mounted and also are packaged. And any change is an opportunity. So in any case, a very promising development for the future.

speaker
spk10

Great. Thank you.

speaker
Conference Operator
Moderator

We will take the next question from line Michael from DeGroof BetaCam. The line is open now. Please go ahead.

speaker
Michael

Yes, Mr. Glickman. I have a question about the A&P market as a whole. You are typically so kind to share the latest Tech Insights estimates, and you also warn every time that they're always in motion, and we see that again this quarter. But in the past two years, and especially this year, I've noticed huge swings in the segments within the market. For instance, Dicing has been gaining considerable share. Wire bonding has been coming down tremendously, and die attach is somewhere in the middle. If you look at the estimates for 2025, strong growth, then logic dictates that the segment with the weakest base will grow strongest. So that would be wire bonding. Dicing would grow slowly, and die attach probably again in the middle. Does this make sense, or do we have extra insights from the segmentations of Tech Insights to help us out a bit?

speaker
Richard Blakeman
Chief Executive Officer

Well, I'm trying already for nearly 40 years to understand market indicators, whether this is Tech Insights, Future Horizons, in the past Gartner, but there are also others, I should not forget Joe. Their models are based on overall market inputs. digested in different ways, tested with suppliers like ourselves. And yeah, they're always, by definition, incorrect. But the trends are very good to follow. So for next year, it could well be that Wirebond has a strong recovery. And why? Because wire-bombed CAPEX for, as we know, the past many quarters has been very soft. So that typically is the cyclical behavior. And that could well be for dicing. On the other hand, dicing becomes ever more critical because dyes are ever more complex, thinner. So that is directly linked to the advanced packaging segment. Same If you take dietetics, part of that world is conventional and the other part is advanced packaging. So the conventional part is like wire bonds, very slow, already for quarters. So that could show a recovery. But the focus is always on next generation technology. And it's difficult to have that let's say, segmented in an overall market view. It's only very recently that Tech Insights is now also presenting data on advanced packaging. It used to be all in one market segment. But then again, be careful. We very closely with our customers, as we explained many times, align our strategy and also the growth or the other way around, the stagnation directly with customers. Our top 10 represent 50 to 60% of revenue and you should be clearly ready to service those customers in ups and downs.

speaker
Michael

I understand the problems. The thing is, based on the midpoint of your guidance for Q4, you will be growing about 5% for the full year. That's slightly higher than the A&P forecast from Tech Insights. You're getting a little bit market share. But if I strip out that Japanese company that has no downturn at all, then you're growing much faster than your closest competitors. That is probably because of your hybrid bonding business this year, correct? That they don't have. So basically, if that recovery in mainstream, which has been taking so long and I don't see it happening in Q1, perhaps not even in Q2 next year, then you will probably continue to gain market share because of your focus on advanced.

speaker
Richard Blakeman
Chief Executive Officer

Maybe, but it's not only market share. The key is to be in the fastest growing segments and volumes and their margins. So our focus is very clear on the advanced packaging, on the mainstream applications in high-end communication devices, smartphones, also high-end computing, and also for that reason for high-end devices in automotives. And that is what drives the business. And in the end, the market share is a calculation on a model which is presented for a total by somebody like Tech Insights. But anyway, those are statistics.

speaker
Michael

Okay, then a final quick question. Your expansion next year, the clean rooms and so on, should we pencil in about 20 million in CapEx in 2025?

speaker
Richard Blakeman
Chief Executive Officer

No, no less. Less than that. It should be around 10. Okay.

speaker
Michael

Cool. Thanks. That's it from my side. Thank you.

speaker
Conference Operator
Moderator

Thank you. We will take the next question from line Alexander Dewey from Goldman Sachs. The line is open now. Please go ahead.

speaker
Alexander Dewey

Yes. Hi, Richard. Thank you so much. Just a couple of quick questions. Firstly, just to clarify, you talked about substantial hybrid bonding orders in the quarter. Just wanted to understand what substantial means in comparison to the second quarter order of hybrid bonding, which is around 29 units. Did you see orders for a double-digit number of hybrid bonding units in the quarter? And also, just to clarify, could the order intake broaden in terms of customers in the fourth quarter? beyond the two logic players we know about and then finally as a second question to what degree do you think the mainstream assembly market has now seen a bottom to the degree that you do what would underpin that just given there seems some uncertainty in areas like auto and industrial many thanks well excellent so two questions one and we provided sort of a

speaker
Richard Blakeman
Chief Executive Officer

a rhyme, a riddle, we indicated that we now have sold over 100 hybrid bombers. And as we indicated in earlier calls in Taiwan, by the end, we should reach that magic number getting close to 50. And then in the US, we are only starting in volume. So the rest are customers with smaller numbers. and some are based for demand for early next year. So your question in the third quarter, substantial means the largest quarter number orders was 29 systems in Q2. And substantial means also substantial, not more than Q2. but double digits and I can illustrate that in a way that you have to make a quick math to get to this over a hundred. So it must be more than 10 and maybe close to 20. But anyway, so a substantial number and broader, ever broader applications testing for HBM, stacking memory, for chiplet applications, so connecting multiple dyes, both 2D and 2.5 3D. So that is ever broader. The next question, the mainstream bottom, it's with all the negative indicators right now, and simply take our customers as a reference who have provided data in the past couple of weeks and more will come in the next few weeks with quarter results. Don't yet demonstrate and let's say expected recovery soon. Statistically, one would, let's say, conclude that there must be at some point a turn of tide because we're eight quarters well into a correction. But as we said in the press release, otherwise we would have formulated differently. But we are still cautious in this next quarter. All the outside, as mentioned earlier, tech insights, but also future horizons and others, expect 25 to show them a recovery. They also expected this for 24. But anyway, that's as good as information as we can get. Thank you, Richard.

speaker
Conference Operator
Moderator

Thank you.

speaker
Richard Blakeman
Chief Executive Officer

I hope this answers your question. Any further questions?

speaker
Conference Operator
Moderator

Yes, we will take the last question from line Felix Overdover from DNF Finance Services. The line is open now. Please go ahead.

speaker
Felix Overdover

Yes, thank you. Hi, Richard. Most of the difficult questions have already been asked, so I'm ending this call with a simple question. Just on the recent news about the reduced or delayed front-end capex by two founding players not being TSMC, Perhaps you can just clarify whether the delay, the slight delay in basis HB deliveries in Q4 is related to that, and maybe more in general, whether you expect any impact of these CapEx delays on your TCB or HB business next year.

speaker
Richard Blakeman
Chief Executive Officer

Well, the shipment, what we indicated for Q4 and early part of next year for hybrid bombers is not linked to, and that was an earlier question, it's simply logistics. It is not caused by delay of front end. Whether that delay occurs has an impact further down the road is not, let's say, clear. It's hard to estimate, but in this industry, the forefront of technology always continues, and that is how customers survive. So the efforts will be ever more steered towards either maintaining leads in the next generation technology or catching up. So you have to, as a supplier, always look at that part. So it can very well be that the delay or let's say the reduction in investments can be affecting less forefront technology capacities. But anyway, as I said earlier, it's for us. They don't share those details to such an extent. But it's full speed ahead on hybrid bonding and TC next generation technologies.

speaker
Felix Overdover

Okay, great. Thank you very much.

speaker
Richard Blakeman
Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Felix.

speaker
Conference Operator
Moderator

For the question, we will hand it back over to your host for closing remarks.

speaker
Richard Blakeman
Chief Executive Officer

Thank you very much, all. And any further questions, don't hesitate to contact us. Thank you. Bye-bye.

speaker
Conference Operator
Moderator

Thank you for joining today's call. You may now disconnect.

Disclaimer

This conference call transcript was computer generated and almost certianly contains errors. This transcript is provided for information purposes only.EarningsCall, LLC makes no representation about the accuracy of the aforementioned transcript, and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the information provided by the transcript.

-

-