7/27/2023

speaker
Conference Operator
Conference Operator

Good afternoon. This is the Coral School conference operator. Welcome and thank you for joining the Banca Generali first half 2023 results conference call. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, they may signal an operator by pressing star and zero on their telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Gianmaria Mossa, CEO and General Manager of Banco Generali. Please go ahead, sir.

speaker
Gianmaria Mossa
CEO and General Manager of Banco Generali

Good afternoon and welcome to our first ALF results conference call. In the first ALF, we delivered very strong results with some very important achievements. The total assets exceeded $80 billion for the first time ever. The productivity of our existing sales force was at the highest level and the best interim results ever in terms of recurring net profit thanks to very strong net interest income and very solid gross fees. The first half was pretty challenging due to the market performance of last year and raising interest rates. But despite that context, we delivered very strong results in terms of net inflows. The quality was pretty good. The net inflows in what we call high-quality investment services, that is about financial wrappers and advanced advisory services, exceeded the level of last year with 1.6 billion euros of net inflows for almost 50% of net inflows. We continue to see a rebalancing between third-party funds to in-house funds and also considering the quality on the asset under custody. We are pretty happy with that because there is an important contribution from structured products and certificates. Very good quality of portfolios under advanced advisory services and last but not least, a great part of the bonds are invested in duration lower than one year. This quarter is really important because we are at the midpoint of our three year business plan and I'm very proud to say that we are in line or above our target and in particular we are very confident for the next quarters. Starting from net profit, page 4, as you can see the first half closed at 175. Most of this comes from recurring net profit. Recurring net profit in the second quarter closed very close to 90 million, while the variable net profit contributed marginally. Why the recurring net profit jumped? First of all, thanks to very strong net financial income, page 5, you can see the contribution of net interest income in the second quarter, above $80 million, and this is driven by an increasing net interest margin. The second quarter closed at 2.13%. As I mentioned, it's not only about net interest income, it's also thanks to the total gross fees and on page 6 we recovered the level of the first half of the last year so we are pretty stable year on year but with a steady recovery quarter by quarter and while variable fees are marginal 2.6 million but I think it's really important to stress the fact that 1.7 billion euro of funds or five strategies are at or very close to the high water mark. Page seven, let's deep dive into the gross fees, starting from management fees. Here, the positive news from margins at 1.43. The average assets under management are recovering, but are not at the same level last year, so the result is management fees at €400 million, so we reached the level of €200 million per quarter. Very strong results from the Gross Banking Entry Fees, page 8. The result here is pretty impressive, almost €40 million. All the components are contributing positively with entry fees at €12.2 million. brokerage commission almost close to 11 million, advisory fees above 10 million and other banking fees above 6 million. This is driven by asset expansions or volumes but also margins as you can see bottom of the page. The margins close at 0.18 or once excluded the cyclical components 0.17. So the three major initiatives launched during our previous three-year business plan are contributing significantly in providing good revenues also on assets under custody. In terms of payout ratio, the contribution for net interest income is in line with the first quarter, $3 million. Payout, ordinary payout 36.2, slightly higher than 36, that is our target due to basically seasonality, some costs for the network that are of this quarter, but we are pretty confident to regain the level 36 or below. The part of the cost of growth is in line with expectation in the range 10-11, while payout for third parties increased on higher servicing costs linked to credit cards. The overall total payout ratio is in line with our targets of 53. Next page, cost. No news, good news. We confirmed the range, 5-6% of the core cost, including also all the investments and the Swiss bank project. So I would go to page 11 where we see the ratios and also in this case you can see our very efficient leverage with operating costs on total assets again below 0.3 and cost income ratio at the lowest level ever. Page 12, just to sum up, they say that the operating profit excluding performance fee were very strong and this is driven from, of course, great part from net interest income but also the diversification of revenues and in particular the great activity of the network on the asset under custody. If we focus on operating share charges, we see that we are 2.53 million higher than last year, nothing new. While on the tax rate, we confirm the level of the first quarter, which is driven by the mix. So less performance fee, more fees generated in Italy, financial wrappers, and the fees on assets under custody. Also for tax rate, we do expect normalization with the stabilization of the market. Next paragraph, balance sheet and capital ratio. Page 1.4, we start from total assets. Total assets, total interest bearing assets close at 14.3. Here, let me highlight the quality, the asset quality. Just to remind you that we do not have any traditional lending activity. We do not have any mortgage initiatives. So we have some mortgages only for employees. and the HQLA assets are almost 70% of total assets. So it's a very high quality on the balance sheet. In terms of yield, we are at 2.64 and this is driven basically by all the major components of our total assets. Next page, liabilities and equities. The total, let's focus on 50%. Client deposits at 11.1. In line you have a projection. We will deep dive on this on the last part of the presentation. Cost of funding pretty stable, 0.31 the overall cost of client deposits. Last, capital liquidity ratios. All the ratios are improving. And leverage ratio at 5, total capital ratio above 18 and all liquidity ratios well above the requirement and above also the level of last year. So now let's introduce the commercial part. New achievements and new records, total assets above 88, advanced advisory services 8.5, almost 10%. Focusing on page 19, you can see the quality of after-pandemic management with the financial wrappers exceeding $10 billion and with in-house funds improving relatively better than the third parties. Also in insurance products, good news, the insurance wrappers recovered. And now the total insurance wrappers account for 10.5 billion. And then, as we will see later, there is a progressive stabilization also of the traditional life policies. In terms of net inflows, page 20, the focus is on the right. As I already commented, 1.6 billion euro of net inflows in fee-generating assets. and then we will deep dive on the €5 billion in assets under custody. The quality of the inflows is very high with €2.9 billion of existing sales force inflows and I am at page 2.1. Recruitment is lagging and as I explained in the first quarter is due to the difficulties to transfer portfolios with negative performance from competitors. But the interest in the bank is very, very high. So I'm very confident that once we see stabilization of the market, we will regain our leadership in recruitment of talent. Let's say that the focus today is about, in the business update, our midpoint of our free business plan. At page 2-3, you see our three major targets. The first one is consistent growth. It's about net inflows. You know we set the target in the range 18-22 billion for the three years. It means that for the first eight months is in the range 9-11. Two main components. The first part was about the existing sales force. And here we are above the average of the target, so with 7.4 billion euro. This is all about productivity. And you see that we are lagging in the recruitment, recruitment to components, Italy and Switzerland. Profitability, here we set the target of growth in the range 10-15. We are definitely well above expectation. And remunerative growth. This is pretty impressive to me. We already accrued 4.2 euro per share and we already posted almost 1.2 euro for the first half of the year. It's above 3%. So just analyzing what we have already accrued for the first half, we would pay a dividend yield above 7%. to the two-day price. Deep dive on consistent growth, page 24. Here we give a sort of deep dive of the different clusters per age of the net inflows. You see an acceleration of the inflows from younger. It's from 0.3 to 0.4 with some rounding effect. but this is the result of our dedicated project to enhance the development and inclusion of new junior talents and the team. The lighter gray is about our senior banker, 2.4, new high, and here we start seeing the first results of all the data projects that we announced during our free business plan day. In particular, we are piloting the phase in which we provide the first estimates of the potential of the client and we see with great optimism room to increase the share of wallet of our existing clients. And then we delivered also our new platform, BG Family Office, that is a way to provide a holistic approach to high net worth individuals. Switzerland, finally, we are at the moment in which we're going to receive the license. We do expect it in next month, in August. This implies that a go-live for Swiss clients in November and for Italian clients in the first quarter of next year. And this is very important. It's a revenue engine that will contribute significantly to our inflows in the medium terms. So in terms of consistent growth, we are optimistic to see a raising contribution of the existing, thanks to all the projects, in particular the data and the potential of the clients. Switzerland is close to be there, and it's the first license the regulator in Switzerland approved after several years, and we see great interest around these new initiatives. And especially we are confident to see also a stabilization and revamp of recruitment in the next quarters, in particular in the first half of next year. Second part is on profitable growth. And we start with net interest income. In the slide you see the same framework as the one we already shared with you in the last two conference calls. So there is the assumption to increase the cost of funding of the clients from the current one, 0.31, to 130 basis points. And there is the assumption of the reduction of client deposits as projected in the previous quarter in the range of 10-11. And you see the result. The result is an increase on net interest income in the range 250, 260. Then bottom right, you see another projection that will be our new target that is implementing the same projection with a cost of finding that is 50% of our target, so around 0.6, 0.7. And in this case, the overall net interest income will be 280 million euros. So we increased our targets from 230 to 280 and we are confident to confirm this level also for next year. Page 26, a deep dive on assets under custody. Here you can see the result of the delivery of the previous free of business plan. Very solid results. First of all, you see the volumes on primary markets and certificates, €1.5 billion in the first half, more than twice year-on-year. The volumes in terms of assets under advisory for the AUC part, €4.4 billion, more than 50% higher year-on-year. And then brokerage. 9.8% or more than 50% higher than the last year. And here, good news are plenty. First of all, advisory on asset under custody is 20%. It's good enough and is accelerating. Primary certificates, it accounts for only 7%. This is important because it implies turnover. And the bonds, on the right bottom of the page, you see in Instagram jumping from 0.5 to 3.2. It means that we accumulated 2.7 of extra assets invested in bonds with a duration lower than one year. So we have 3.2 billion euro assets maturing in the next 12 months. And this is, of course, it implies that a sort of rebalancing also in the mix and is a sort of cash-in for asset management insurance products. Page 27, you see this slide is the same as the first quarter where we show the trend of services, of investment services, the bespoke investment services, so financial wrappers and advanced advisory services. The growth path is pretty impressive and the same can be said for the margins 1.41 the last page page 28 is a deep dive on the more traditional asset management and insurance product let's focus on fund industry the first chart on the bottom top of the page if you look at the two instagrams the the red is saying one thing we are increasing the focus on in-house products In the first quarter, 122. In the second quarter, 181. So there's good momentum for in-house products, while the third-party products are losing momentum. You see that there is a sort of a switch, and this is very important because in a difficult period, the financial advisors, our clients, are choosing the in-house solutions for the quality of the results. On the bottom we have the insurance. You know it's two years that we are targeting rebalancing between traditional life insurance policy and insurance wrappers and we start again to see this mechanism, this rebalancing with €100 million of net inflows in insurance wrappers. and we do see a stabilization in the outflows on traditional life insurance. We have a target, a medium term target of minus 50, minus 70 in traditional life insurance, more than offset by positive inflows in the insurance wrappers. So the expectation for, let's say, the fourth quarter, in the third we should see the U-turn, in the fourth quarter you should see positive net inflows for the insurance business. So Basically, for the profitable growth, positive news from net interest income, up VZR stable next year, positive news in assets under custody, higher profitability, plenty of liquidity, positive news on financial wrappers and advanced advisory services, the place to be, great quality of in-house solution for funds and stabilization of the insurance with an attention higher volumes on the most profitable product. So all these numbers make us even more optimistic and confident in delivering all the targets of our three-year strategic plan. And now I will hand over for the Q&A session. Thank you.

speaker
Conference Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. This is the course call conference operator. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one under touchstone telephone. To remove your faff from the question queue, please press star and two. Please pick up the receiver when asking questions. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. The first question is from Gianluca Ferrari with Mediobanca. Please go ahead.

speaker
Gianluca Ferrari
Equity Research Analyst, Mediobanca

Yes, hi, good afternoon. I have three questions. The first one is on the outlook you can give us for Q3 in particular for certificates. Last year, it was a bit of a weak water for certificates. I was wondering what are your expectations now? And also, I understood you said you have 1.7 billion not too far from the watermark. Can you provide us a bit of gut feeling of the performance piece we should put in our models for ERM23. The second one is sort of accounting kind of question. In the Altri Proventi Net Registrione line, 6.6 million this year, it was 7.8 million last year. I remember last year you made a point regarding the discount rate for the indemnities of the portfolios you acquired. I thought this year that kind of effect was less present, but it's still. So if you can explain what is driving that line of the P&L. And the last one, I understand the reassuring message on live G&A savings. Outflows are gradually improving, so the second derivative is going pretty well. Can you tell us from a commercial standpoint what are you doing to improve that phenomenon if you have new Ramo Primo offered to existing clients or what are the kind of strategic and practical measures you are putting in place? Thank you.

speaker
Gianmaria Mossa
CEO and General Manager of Banco Generali

Thank you Gianluca. Starting from the outlook for certificates, the numbers are pretty impressive because the net inflows are negligible. So the volume is all about turnover for the positive performance. So I don't see concentration risk. And as I mentioned, the overall exposure to structured products, certificates, and primary market is close to 7%. We say that we have still room to increase this percentage. Here, the idea is to continue to provide tactical solutions And this kind of solution works much better with higher interest rate. So I don't see a slowdown. We are using these initiatives commercially so we can manage the volumes. I don't want to accelerate. So I do expect positive volumes also for the second half, a little bit lower also for seasonality compared to the first half. In terms of performance fee, it depends mostly from the market, but we have five strategies at or above the line or just slightly lower than the high watermark, in particular two flexible products and one high yield and one equity on technology. So let's say that if we think of a normalization of the markets with single-digit returns on the equity, let's say around 5%, and some positive news from bonds, so stabilization of the yield, we could have an average of 10-20 billion. But it depends from, of course, the market condition that you have in mind. For provision, it's exactly what we described in the first quarter, because we increased the provision for to manage potential claims from clients for the market performance of last year and for securitization. In the second quarter, nothing new compared to the first quarter, but for this question, then I will hand over to Tommaso to complement the answer. For the insurance, let's say that, as you know, here the goal is to increase the percentage of the insurance wrappers and we're going to launch a new product in September-October where in the insurance wrappers we can manage automatic rebalancing and this is very efficient for fiscal reasons and also to mitigate the entry point in the markets. So we are pretty sure, we are confident to see important numbers from these initiatives and the product will be launched in the first part of October. Traditional life insurance is working pretty well because together with the insurance company and in line with the initiatives provided by other competitors, there is a sort of upfront for the client, two percentage points. let's say, stabilize the yield for the next two years on an average of three percentage points. I have to say that thanks to a very cautious management of the inflows in the previous year, the quality of our segregated accounts is very high, and so we do expect that if we stabilize the inflows, we could see also an uptick on the yield of the underlying. That now is slightly above expected to be slightly above 2.5. The last answer on the insurance, the gross premium per month now are at 200 million euros overall. So it's pretty good, it's in line with the previous years.

speaker
Tommaso Perazza
Chief Financial Officer

Coming back to the provision, the impact of the interest rate was positive for around last year in the first half and this year we have a positive effect of almost less than 5 million. I think you mentioned also another item in the APNL which is positive because there is a transaction between some financial advisors that transferred the portfolio. It's something which is neutral in our P&L overall, but we account the cost in the payout, and we have a benefit in this line. So when we have this transaction, we have some, I mean, the positive is in the other net overhead income, and the cost is accounted in the payout. But it's neutral in the P&L overall.

speaker
Gianluca Ferrari
Equity Research Analyst, Mediobanca

Sorry, this is the second year that we have this phenomenon only in Q2. Is this a chance, chance by chance, or... It's regularly booked in the second quarter, this transaction with the ESA.

speaker
Tommaso Perazza
Chief Financial Officer

It depends when we have the transaction. So, I mean, it's something that can be in every quarter, basically. And the important part is that it's neutral in the P&L overall. Okay, thank you.

speaker
Conference Operator
Conference Operator

The next question is from Elena Perini with Intesa San Paolo. Please go ahead.

speaker
Elena Perini
Analyst, Intesa Sanpaolo

Good afternoon and thank you for your presentation. The first question is on your expected tax rate for the full year because the first half was around 27% basically due to low performance fees and high net interest income. I was wondering what is the outlook for the second half and for the full year. And then another question, I don't know if you have already mentioned, but I was disconnected for only a few minutes. What is at the moment the cost of retail funding? Thank you very much.

speaker
Gianmaria Mossa
CEO and General Manager of Banco Generali

So the first question, tax rate, I do not expect significant improvements because the mix will be still in favor of, let's say, fee generated in Italy. So I would set a range between 25 to 27, depending on the topic that I explained before, so performance fee, so depending also on the markets. On the retail, the overall cost is, you're talking about the cost of client deposits, so the cost of funding is 0.31. If it's about the asset management business, sorry Elena, can you repeat if it's about the net interest income and the cost of funding for client deposits or it's about the funds?

speaker
Giovanni

Sorry. Retail funding is 0.31.

speaker
Gianmaria Mossa
CEO and General Manager of Banco Generali

And in the projection for the full year, you have two scenarios. The first one is that the cost of funding will increase at 130 and the second scenario is it will increase to 0.6 to 0.7. It means twice. Considering the doubling of this cost, we will achieve 280 million euro of net interest income. And this number is confirmed also for next year due to a higher cost of funding for next year in the range of 0.91% and a stabilization of client deposits.

speaker
Giovanni

Thank you.

speaker
Conference Operator
Conference Operator

The next question is from Giovanni Razzoli with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

speaker
Giovanni Razzoli
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Good afternoon to everybody and thank you for taking my question. Just a clarification on this. So basically, you see that the underlying NII guidance for the four-year is 250, 260 million euros with the assumption of doubling the cost of funding at the end. But it seems to me that you are still extremely good and committed that it would imply a material desideration in the second half. So if I make my numbers correctly, from €150 million to something in the region of €100 million or slightly above that. So I was wondering what kind of zero conservatism have you included into this. Second question, if you can share with us, sorry if I missed it, the share of PTP valore that you had with this placement. And the third point, you've mentioned that you do expect the normalization of the new business generation on the insurance business from the second half. Did I get it correctly? Thank you.

speaker
Gianmaria Mossa
CEO and General Manager of Banco Generali

Thank you, Giovanni. Net interest income, the expectation is at 280, 250, 260 was the same framework presented in the previous conference call. So simply updating the framework, the target would be 250, 260. But since now we have only four months to the end of the year, we decided to give always very conservative targets, but more realistic. So the assumption is a cost of finding of 0.6 0.7 for the last four months. With this assumption, the overall net interest income for this year will be above 280. BTP valore, the overall amount was around 360 million euro and in the insurance space, I confirm that we do expect, especially in the fourth quarter, an acceleration on the insurance wrappers and a reduction of the outflows on the traditional life insurance. As a result, the net impact will be positive.

speaker
Giovanni

So positive net inflows. Thank you. Thank you very much.

speaker
Conference Operator
Conference Operator

The next question is from Alberto Villa with Intermonte. Please go ahead.

speaker
Alberto Villa
Analyst, Intermonte

Good afternoon. I have a few questions. The first one is on your comments on the dividend. You mentioned the accrual of 1.2 euros in the first half of 2023 and also you mentioned possibly doubling this amount at the end of the year. Should we take this payout ratio in the region of 80% and 2.4% under normal conditions as a sort of base for the dividend of this year? The second question is related to your comments on the recruitment. I was wondering, with improving market conditions, I guess some clients and some advisors are still looking at what has happened in 2022. But given the more favorable conditions we have had so far this year, can we expect already in the second part of the year a revamp of the recruitment activity to more normal levels, or Is there any other, let's say, element, competition, or cost of recruitment that has changed compared to the past? My final point is on your guidance on client deposits. You see you didn't change your expectation of $10 billion, $11 billion at the end of the year. You were at $10.4 billion. at the end of June, so are you already experiencing some improvement in the outflows you have had in the first part of the year from deposits in July or you expect it to be happening more later on in the year? Thank you.

speaker
Gianmaria Mossa
CEO and General Manager of Banco Generali

Thank you, Alberto. Let's start from dividend. The payout, the implied payout ratio is 81%, 100% of payout ratio on variable net profit and 80% on recurring net profit. What I mentioned before is that annualizing the dividend yield, you would see a 7% plus. So the assumption of 2.4 It could be, but it's not the base scenario. Let's see the net profit in the second part. But just to say that we want to pay back a significant part of the net profit. So this 81% is a good proxy of our commitment to remunerative growth. For recruitment, it's not about any change in the market dynamics, no competition, no cost. It's about performance. It's about the performance of last year. It's about the reporting period that should be ended in the first half. So, to sharing the results of the bad performance of last year. So I do expect some good recruitment because we are in discussion with senior bankers during the fall. But to see a full normalization, we need some performance also in the bond portfolio, so stabilization of the yield. So I would bet on normalization in the first part of next year. But again, we are very attractive and I'm not worried for long-term trends. It's just about the continued situation. For client deposits, just to explain a little bit better the numbers, our guidance is in the range of 10-11 billion euros and it's about the numbers of the liabilities that now accounts for 11.2. This is 11.1. This 11.1 includes also some extra liquidities, not just the current account that you see in the total assets of the client.

speaker
Giovanni

Okay, thank you.

speaker
Conference Operator
Conference Operator

The next question is from Domenico Santoro with HSBC. Please go ahead.

speaker
Domenico Santoro
Analyst, HSBC

Hi, good afternoon. Just a few questions on the sales of products. First of all, I see that banking fees are increasing steadily over the quarters. I just want to understand if you can give us a bit of visibility on this line for the second part of the year. And same, I just wonder whether the OM margins already capture the market performance of the second quarter or from now you expect a bit of improvement in terms of RUM margin. The second question that I have is that in case sales on neutral funds that prove to be stronger going forward, I just wonder if we shall see a sort of stabilization of banking fees instead of going forward because I'm not sure if what I say makes sense, but those kind of products are sort of complementary in the sense that you either buy one or the other one. So just to model these lines in the future. And the other question is about the payout ratio to financial advisors. Shall we include in our model the same seasonality or the one that's We think you too, given the structure of your sales, it's something that we can take as a sort of a benchmark going forward. And then the performance fees, have I understood correctly that you expect something like 10 million in the second part of the year?

speaker
Gianmaria Mossa
CEO and General Manager of Banco Generali

Thank you. Thank you. So for the banking fees, let's say that in the second part of the year there is some seasonality. Summertime, and the end of the year, where you run for the incentive scheme. So the banking fees in the second half normally is weaker than in the first half. Overall, you are right. The other fees are in part complementary to the other recurring fees, so management fees. But let's say that thanks to all the projects that we have implemented and delivered, During the last three years, we increased structurally the turnover. So there is a part that is due to the context or interest yield and part due to the new set of platforms and the initiatives provided to the financial advisors. So you have part that is due to seasonality, part due to a structural shift. So I'm confident that the banking fees will contribute to our P&L in the future years. Of course, my view is a normalization of management products, management fee and products with recurring fees. And in this case, probably the overall impact of the other banking fees. Now, this will be a little bit lower. But let's say that I'm positive because there is a structural increase in volumes in turnover, while advanced advisory fee on AUC is a structural trend. In terms of AUM margins, I do not expect an increase compared to the 1.43%. We set the target of staying above 1.41 and we confirmed this target. We are above this guidance and I don't have any particular topics to think of a reduction. Payout ratio is very important. positive on the ratios on the KPIs that we share and that I always communicate during conference call. It is about 36% on the ordinary payout, no more than 12% in the incentive, depending on the mix, and around 6% for third party. So the overall should be 53% or around that 53%. I don't see structural changes. performance fee, let's say that if you have the assumption of positive performance, one single digit performance in the equity and positive performance slightly above zero in the bond portfolios, we could stay in the range 10-20 just because we have 1.7 billion of assets that are almost at a high watermark and other assets that are close to, but depends mostly on the view that you have on the market.

speaker
Giovanni

Thank you. Thank you.

speaker
Conference Operator
Conference Operator

As a reminder, if you wish to register for a question, please press star and one on your telephone. Gentlemen, there are no more questions registered. I turn the conference back to Mr. Mosso for any closing remarks.

speaker
Giovanni

Are you sure that we do not have any other questions?

speaker
Conference Operator
Conference Operator

Excuse me, there are two questions. The first one is from Luigi Dabelli, Equita. Please go ahead.

speaker
Luigi Dabelli
Analyst, Equita SIM

Yes, good afternoon. Two quick questions for me. The first one is on the capital ratio because you had a very strong organic demand generation in the quarters thanks to both higher capital and lower risk with the asset. Can you elaborate on this and what we can expect for the coming quarters if this dynamic will continue with this speed? And second question on the Swiss market, so can you elaborate on what we can expect in terms of main KPI for 2024, so namely recruitment and net inflows? Thank you.

speaker
Gianmaria Mossa
CEO and General Manager of Banco Generali

Thank you, Luigi. On capital ratio, we will be more generous on the dividend policy in respect of the guidance. The assumption of 100% of payout on the variable net profit and 80% of the target we gave in our strategy are confirmed and I will take all the room to remunerate the shareholders. So it's about first of all capital ratio, higher capital ratio are a good buffer to a generous dividend policy. Second, let's say that the overall effect of capital ratio is also about a reduction, overall reduction of the balance sheet. I do see a stabilization of the balance sheet next year, so I do not expect significant increase in the capital ratios. But let's say that it's a confirmation that we are a capitalized bank and that we say we have a consistent growth, a profitable growth, but also a new narrative growth. Swiss market, let's say that in the first 12 months from the launch of the bank, so from March, I do expect at least 1 billion euro of inflows.

speaker
Giovanni

Thank you very much.

speaker
Conference Operator
Conference Operator

The next question is from Marco Nicolai with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

speaker
Marco Nicolai
Analyst, Jefferies

Hi, thanks for taking my questions. I might have missed this, but last quarter you gave the net new money guidance between 5.7 billion and 6.7 billion for 2023. Did you change anything in this? And also I had another question. Could you please remember me the difference in marginality between in-house funds and third parties funds? Thank you.

speaker
Gianmaria Mossa
CEO and General Manager of Banco Generali

Thank you. No, at the moment we confirm the guidance in the range 5.7, 6.7, where the increase of the guidance mostly depends on the recruitment. So in the next conference call I will give you an update because, again, there is great interest around the bank. But in the next few weeks, I don't see significant recruitment activity. So it depends mostly on September, October in the recruitment part result. In-house funds and third-party funds, let's say that in general terms, I would say that before taxes, you have on average 40, 50 basis points more. But just to give you the exact numbers, I will hand over to Tomas.

speaker
Tommaso Perazza
Chief Financial Officer

The third-party funds have a pay-in around 110 basis points, while the average in-house has a pay-in of around 170, 190, it depends on the asset allocation of the underlying funds. So there is basically a 30-40% difference in terms of pain, gross pain. Then we have the payout that, as you know, generally accounts for the 35-36% of our pain.

speaker
Giovanni

Thank you.

speaker
Conference Operator
Conference Operator

Mr. Massa, there are no more questions registered at this time.

speaker
Gianmaria Mossa
CEO and General Manager of Banco Generali

A great thank you for participating to our conference call and have a great vacation. Bye.

Disclaimer

This conference call transcript was computer generated and almost certianly contains errors. This transcript is provided for information purposes only.EarningsCall, LLC makes no representation about the accuracy of the aforementioned transcript, and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the information provided by the transcript.

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