Banca Generali Spa

Good afternoon. This is the Coral School conference operator. Welcome and thank you for joining the Banca Generali nine-month 2024 results conference call. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, they may signal an operator by pressing star and zero on their telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Gian Maria Mossa, CEO and General Manager of Banca Generali. Please go ahead, sir.

Good afternoon, and thank you for attending our nine-month results conference call. The first nine months of this year were the best of Banca Generali history in several aspects. We exceeded, for the first time ever, 100 billion euros of assets, The overall assets in our asset management in Luxembourg exceeded €22 billion. The financial advisors, so our financial advisory network increased by 4% and we continue to see acceleration in recruitment activity and net profit jumped at €338 million with also record level for the recurring components. Results are very strong, but probably I'm really more positive on the commercial side. October numbers are impressive for quality, and the overall results in the first 10 months are definitely better compared year on year. Last but not least, today I will take the opportunity to introduce the fundamental reason, the strategic reason of our tender offer to Intermonte. But let's start as usual to comment the numbers. So page 4, overall net profit for the third quarter close to 100 million with positive contribution of recurring net profits. And again, a good support from variable net profit. The recurring component is well supported by all the revenue components. Let's start from net financial income. As you can see, page 5, net interest income, each new record height, close to 80 million, is all about asset expansion with pretty stable margins. And we project for the fourth quarter a result of the net financial income in the range 75, 77 million. Moving on to page five, total gross fees, up by 8% comparing with the previous quarter, the same quarter of the last year. And variable fees are contributing very well also for the third quarter. 28 million euro and in October the result was above 5 million euro. Why gross recurring fees increased? Basically, thanks to the acceleration in investment fees and the good performance of other fees. Let's start from investment fees, page 7. Again, also in this case, all is driven by volume expansion with pretty stable margins. So the overall contribution of investment fees is close to 230 million. If we deep dive into the two major components, management fees, page 8, closed at 216 million euro. And you can see the bottom of the page, The margin is stable, 1.42, and so the acceleration is driven basically by the asset expansion with average AUM at 60.8 million euros. The same can be said for the advisory fees, page 9. You see here the acceleration in the same period of the last year is even stronger, plus 20%. And again, stable margin, 0.5, and asset expansion. We exceeded, as average assets under advisory, €10 billion. Page 10, other fees. You know this is probably the revenue hit most by seasonality. Despite seasonality, the results are strong. The comparison with the quarter of the last year, same quarter last year, implied 20% growth in absolute terms, stable other banking fees, and strong results both in terms of brokerage commissions and entry fees. So, revenues increased. Again, stable margin and overall asset expansion. If we focus on cost, they say that everything is in line with our projection. So let's start from the payout, page 11. As we mentioned in the previous conference call, the cost on net interest income peaked in the first quarter of this year, so now the negative impact is of 3.3 million. Ordinary payout ratio for the financial advisors is below our range, 36-37%, so closed at 35.7%. The same for the payout for growth, closed at 10.3%, and our guidance was in the range 11-12%. Apart from some rounding effect, also the payout to third parties closed pretty constant. Page 12, costs. Let's start from core operating costs. You know this year we were impacted by two specific components. The project BG Swiss, almost 9 million euros, and the renewal of the national banking contract, almost 3 million. So excluding these two components, the core operating costs would have increased by only 2.3%, emphasizing our great operating leverage. On top of the core operating costs, you see that the total operating costs were impacted for 4 million of non-core items, basically the cost for the M&A activity and some incentives for early requirements. Page 13 is just a confirmation of our excellent operating leverage. New record low in terms of operating costs out of total assets. Some rounding effect, but the number is below 0.28. Cost-income ratio both absolute and adjusted at the lowest level ever. Page 14, just to sum up, very strong Results from all the major components of the revenues, costs under control, and the result is operating profits, let's say, very high also thanks to the contribution of performance fee. Below the operating line, you see an increase of net provision for liability and contingencies, two major negative factors, 12 million euros for actuarial provision, you know, Lower yields implies higher provision, and second, 6 million of other conservative provisions strictly linked to M&A, personnel, and other risks. Overall tax rate just slightly above 25%, thanks to the strong contribution of performance. Moving on to the balance sheet. Here you're going to see an expansion of our balance sheet, so an increase from 14.7 to 15.6, basically driven by client deposits and a higher exposure to deposits from banks. Client deposits increased by 300 million euro and the cost of funding is rate is stable, while if you move on on total assets, this increase has been invested in financial assets with the total portfolio up at 10.6 billion and also here you can see stable interest bearing assets. And so the result of net interest income is driven basically by this asset expansion. Next page, total capital ratio, page 18. You see that now we highlight also the impact of the reimbursement of the 81 before the end of the year. The overall total capital ratio and liquidity ratio are very strong. So total capital ratio 26.5 and also once reimbursed 81 and once normalizing for Basel IV, the result would be confirmed above 20%. Leverage ratio above 6% also after the reimbursement. Liquidity coverage ratio net stable funding ratio well above the SREP requirement. So strong results, strong financial results, strong capital position, and as I mentioned before, a significant acceleration on the quality of the commercial activity. But let's start from the breakdown of total assets. As we mentioned, we exceeded for the first time ever €100 billion. End of September, €101 billion. with more than €60 billion in assets under management, €61.5 billion. Bottom, you see the total assets in advanced advisory services, €10.4 billion. Overall, the assets under investment increased by €7 billion from €60.7 billion to €67.7 billion. Next page, one, let's start from the breakdown, the overall breakdown of the asset under management. You see positive trend driven by the performance of the discretionary account up and significant acceleration of managed solutions from 41.6 to 47. Two major trends, significant contribution of financial wrappers from 10 to 12, and significant contribution from in-house funds, from 9.6 to 11.4. But let's go through the inflows to see the trends, the commercial trends. First nine months, as we already mentioned, 4.7 with positive assets under custody, and 4.5 positive asset under management compared to last year, 1.5 is 0.5, and overall result of asset under investment plus 2 billion. In terms of mix in the asset under management, you see the confirmation financial wrappers, 1.1 billion, and you see the trend of retail distribution of funds in the plus 0.6, third party out minus 0.4. So there is the constant rebalancing in favor of our in-house offer. In terms of acquisition channels, stable contribution from existing network, acceleration in recruitment, 1.2. In terms of numbers, first nine months, 133. But let's focus on page 25. where you see numbers for October. The first 10 months of the year closed at 5.2 compared to the 4.7 of the previous year. And you see the jump in asset under investment, 2.5. The first nine months were at 2 billion, so half a billion in one month. And if you look at the percentage of the asset under investment on total net inflows, now it accounts for almost 48% of the total inflows. And as we already shared, we gave a guidance in the previous conference call between 40 and 60, and we continue to be very positive to be very close or above the upper bound. If you look at the breakdown of the first 10 months, you see the acceleration in managed solutions, you see the acceleration of assets under custody, under advanced advisory, and you see for the first time a positive contribution also of traditional life. In particular, October, as we mentioned, we launched our new Unit Link platform, end of result pretty impressive, €250 million of net inflows. Financial wrappers, despite the focus on insurance wrappers, also the financial wrappers continued to contribute positively, plus €100 million. You can see the continuation of the rebalancing with positive inflows in in-house funds and negative inflows in third-party funds. And finally, but not less important, positive influence also in traditional life policies. In terms of recruitment, we continue to see the positive trends of the previous nine months. In October, we had 13 new financial advisors, new colleagues. And also November is going pretty well. So now, this is ordinary business, but I think that it's really important to understand highlight the quality of the commercial results. Now the insurance is no more a dragging factor, is an acceleration, is distinctive, and is something that is working very well. In-house offering, the financial wrappers and in-house funds are going very well thanks to performance, but today I think that the real news is is about Intermonte and now I will explain why I consider Intermonte a game changer for Banca Generali. So page 27, you know we launched this voluntary tender offer in cash for 100% of the shares of Intermonte and we are confident to close the voluntary tender offer before the end of January and now we are waiting for the formal approval of the regulator. They said that they considered Intermonte a game-changer for three main areas of synergies. The first one is brokerage and market-making. The second one, structural products. And the third one, investment banking. In the next pages, we will go through all of three. So page 2.8. For all of three, there are some common elements. The first one is in terms of onboarding of skill and capabilities. The second one is of an acceleration of revenues on the existing business of the bank. And the third one is about the widening of the business opportunities and of the services. So let's see what This means for brokerage and market making. First of all, we are internalizing trading expertise and dedicated research and advisory activity in equities, ETFs, and derivatives. Second, we can internalize part of the value chain in brokerage activity. And this is true for derivatives, for sure. for equities, in particular Italian equities and European equities, and for ETF. Third, we can expand the business, the very profitable business of derivatives, delivering tailor-made, over-lie solutions, so where they aim at protecting the client from excess volatility in the financial markets. As I said, internalization of capabilities. Second, increase the revenues on existing business. Third, expanding the business. Bottom of the page, you can see the AZs of Banca Generali and the result after the integration with Intermonte. You see just a first look that The change is pretty impressive. We're going to internalize company sector macro research. We will complete the advisory on equity, derivatives, and ETF, and we will extend the brokerage activity on equity, ETF, and derivatives. First point. Second aspect. Second huge opportunity in terms of synergies. Page 2.9, structured products. Again, three elements. First, we can leverage the Intermontes derivative desk, so we can internalize the derivative components of a structured product. You have more know-how, so we can diversify more the product and innovate. Of course, we can internalize, so doing in this way, we're going to internalize part of the value chain. And third, thanks to the Intermonte Digital Platform Web Theme, we can accelerate also in onboarding new clients directly connected with this platform and offering also advice on the secondary market of ETS. And again, also in this case, bottom of the page, you see how the capability changes with the inclusion of Intermonte. You know we are very strong in thinking And in the placement of certificates in the primary market, we're going to increase the capabilities and competencies on the secondary market. And then, most important, we will capture the components of derivatives in the structured products. Last, but not least, page 3.0, the investment banking. First of all, In Italy, the main issue of exploiting the opportunity of corporate investment banking is the ownership of the client. That is the risk in the conglomerate bank to share clients with other departments of the bank. Here, the ownership of the client is very clear. The ownership is of our financial advisor, and we're going to provide them with capabilities, skills, and expertise also in this field. This will for sure increase loyalty and be a game changer also to attract private bankers from other realities in which corporate advisory services are key to manage the entrepreneurs. Of course, this will allow us to work on our existing portfolio, internalizing greater part of the liquidity then. And then, of course, we can accelerate in offering alternative solutions and services for the small-medium enterprise business to support the capital market. And again... At the bottom of the page, you see the impact of the combination. So we know how to work with entrepreneurs, so the assessment of entrepreneurs' needs was pretty strong in the bank, but after the first advice assessment, we had to share the ownership of the clients with our partner. Now we can internalize a great part of the support. So, page 3.1, just to sum up, is a game-changer. It's a game-changer because we're going to source strategic skills in three major areas, brokerage, structured product, investment banking. We will generate sizable revenues on the existing business, and then we will explore new business opportunities. And this will increase loyalty of the clients, loyalty of the bankers, and I'm pretty sure also recruitment activities. This will allow us to deliver a return of the investment definitely higher compared to our cost of capital. And this deal... won't impact on our expected dividend policy for this year. And now I will end over for a Q&A session. Thank you.

Thank you. This is the Coral School Conference Operator. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one under touchstone telephone. To remove your staff from the question queue, please press star and two. Please pick up the receiver when asking questions. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. One moment for the first question, please.

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The first question is from Elena Perini in Teso San Paolo. Please go ahead.

Hello, and thank you for taking my questions. I've actually got two questions. The first one is on NII, which was still quite strong in this third quarter. Sorry, I wasn't able to entirely follow your introduction, so I don't know if you have already touched this point, but I was wondering if you can provide us with some guidance on the fourth quarter and for next year on the NIAID. Then the second question is about your tax rate for this year, guidance and updated guidance and for the next year too. Thank you.

Thank you, Elena. So for NII, we are confident the fourth quarter to deliver 75-77 million euro in terms of net financial income slightly lower compared to the third quarter for the next year at the moment we confirm the range of the previous conference call, but I will give you some more elements. The first one, now if you look at the margin of net interest income is at the end of September was around 230 basis points. We project at the end of next year more or less 180 basis points. And at the moment we continue to assume pretty stable volume, slightly higher level, but we haven't revised yet our projection in terms of volumes. The overall reduction of the margins of the years will start as soon as this quarter, where we estimate an impact of 15-20 basis points, and then you can think of the other 30 basis points linear for the next quarters. So at the moment we don't change our projection for next year because we have significant maturities in GOVI bonds in December and January and February. After these maturities we will eventually update our projection in terms of volumes. In terms of tax rate we confirm for next year the guidance in the range 26%, 27%. For this year, we will be probably lower than the lower band, so between 25% and 26% due to a higher contribution of performance fee.

Thank you.

As a reminder, if you wish to register for a question, please press star and 1 on your telephone.

Once again, if you wish to ask a question, please press star and 1 on your telephone. The next question is from Marco Nicolai Jeffries. Please go ahead.

Hello. Thanks for sharing more information on the Inter Monte deal. I was wondering, can you give us your views in terms of EPS accretion that you expect from this deal? Obviously, you spoke mostly about revenue synergies. Are you thinking also to extract some cost synergies? Can you give us your thoughts around this? Thank you.

Thank you, Marco. We haven't shared the positive impact. The operation will be accretive. And as I said, the overall return will be higher than the cost of equity. But as you can see, the revenue synergies are pretty extensive and three different businesses and will be, let's say, about the existing business of the bank. So in my opinion, it's definitely easier to internalize part of the value chain on the existing business. Then we are pretty confident also to expand the services and capturing extra business as well. The second question was about, so the first one was on accretion. And the cost of synergy, sorry, they said that of course There are some cost synergies, but this is a transformative deal in terms of revenue synergies. So we are very committed to deliver and to share with you the overall positive impact of this deal and next market capital day.

Okay, thank you.

The next question is a follow-up from Elena Perini in the San Paolo. Please go ahead.

Yes, thank you for this follow-up question. Actually, I would like to hear from you what are your thoughts about the recently announced tender offer from Banco BPM on Anima. Do you see some read-across also for the asset gatherer sector? So would you expect... Any other banks having insurance companies in their perimeter, potentially also abroad, to be interested not only in the asset management but also in the asset gathering space? Thank you.

Thank you, Elena. As simple as that. First of all, I think that the Danish compromise is an opportunity. So I think the deal is of good quality and makes a lot of sense, both from the financial and from the capital perspective. Second, I'm confident that our industry will gain momentum. I continue to think that it's the place to be because our business is the business of volumes. and we have been growing steadily over the last 10 years. And we account only less than 20% of overall wealth in Italy. So whatever the company, the sector is the right one. And we could see some interest from large groups because, again, thinking of a declining net interest income, as mentioned by some important CEOs, Now, in this context, some rotation could be the case, and Danish compromise is an advantage, so why not?

Thank you very much. Mr. Mosser, there are no more questions registered at this time. I turn the conference back to you for any closing remarks.

Okay. Thank you for attending our conference call and for the participation, and of course, our Investor Relator is at your full disposal for any further and future questions. Goodbye.