Banca Generali Spa

Good afternoon. This is the Coruscant Conference Operator. Welcome and thank you for joining the Banca Generale Preliminary Full Year 2024 Results Conference Call. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, they may signal an operator by pressing star and zero on their telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Gianmaria Mossa, CEO and General Manager of Banca Generali. Please go ahead, sir.

Good afternoon and welcome to our full year result conference call. Last year closed very strongly with very new record highs in terms of net profits and client assets, and number of financial advisors. And the commercial activity was very sound, with December probably the best ever month for the bank. With last year, we conclude also our three-year business plan that, as you can see at page four, over-delivered on the three major goals, consistent growth, profitable growth, and the remunerative growth. Overall, Total inflows exceeded €18 billion despite some delay in our SWIFT business and some difficulties in the recruitment after the correction of the market in 2022. But thanks to outstanding results of the existing Salesforce, we delivered on our promise. Profitable growth is very strong. As you know, here are two main components, net interest income and the recurring business, driven by asset expansion and stable margin. And then we can announce that we will offer 8.5 euro per share in 2022-2025 cash view in terms of dividend. This implies a dividend payout for last year at 2.8. But we will see later how we will pay the 2.8 euros. Page 5, you can see the trends of overall net profits and recurring net profits. Here you can see the impressive acceleration of recurring net profit, almost close to 340 million euro. And also you can see a positive contribution of variable net profit. Variable net profit is the result of strong variable fees and conservative provisions. Page six, we start going through the P&L, starting from net financial income. The overall result in the fourth quarter was above expectation, mainly thanks to stable net interest income. The 80 million euro of net interest income is the result of the expansion of client deposits. and a slight reduction in overall margins, as expected, plus €11 million of trading gains that are basically linked to portfolio optimization for the first application of the IRR-BB regulation. So very strong net financial income as well as very strong total gross fee. If you move on page 7, you can see that overall total gross fees for the fourth quarter exceeded €300 million, with gross recurring fees at €269 million. Overall, 2024 closed above €1 billion for the first time of the bank. Very strong contribution also from variable fees. The fourth quarter closed at 44 million euro with an overall contribution for the full year at 166. But again, as you know, it's not the strongest year ever in terms of performance fee. And this, 166, an average asset in Luxembourg above 20 billion euros. So the overall impact on the client's performance is lower than previous years. Gross recurring fees, two main components. As you know, we have the investment fees and we have the other fees, starting from investment fees, page 8. Here, the results are pretty impressive. And these results come from stable margin and asset expansion. Starting from the management fees, you can see at page 9, the level achieved at the end of last year, €224 million, or almost €860 million for the full year, with an acceleration of more than 12%. You see that this acceleration is explained is driven by basically asset expansion with the average asset at 62.6 and stable margin. Fourth quarter at 1.43, average for the full year 1.43 in line with the previous two years. So we are pretty confident to confirm these margins also for the foreseeable future. And we are also pretty optimistic in ongoing asset expansion with particular focus on management products. Page 10, you can see the advisory fees. Again, also here, very strong results. The overall fees exceeded €50 million for the last year with a contribution over the fourth quarter at €13 million. all driven by asset expansion. The average assets under advanced advisory services for the fourth quarter was about 10 billion euros. And also in this case, you can see stable margin with an overall margin at 0.5%. So on one hand, very, very strong investment fees were supported by both management fees and advanced advisory fees, and also very strong other fees with brokerage fees growing the most. And also in this case, well supported by asset expansion. We are at page 11. where you can see that the overall contribution of other fees for the first quarter amount to $31.9 million. Overall contribution of other fees for the full year, $130 million. Again, as you can see, the brokerage commission accounted for more than $57 million, and this is, as I already said, driven by stable margin and asset expansion. Banking fees, pretty stable, $5.5 million. Entry fees, here you start seeing a sort of normalization as anticipated during the previous conference call. And we do expect from now a stable contribution of around 10 million, 10, 12 million per quarter. As I said, in this moment, the financial advisory network are very focused on asset management solutions. So on the revenue side, good news. The same can be said for the cost side, starting from total payout ratio, no news, good news. Payout to the FAA network at 47.0, so in line with our guidance and in line with the same period of over two years ago. Payout to third parties below 6%. In this case, this 5.8 includes a contract review, and the impact should be spread into the full year. So there is a one-off that is positive. For the first quarter of this year, we do expect a normalization at 6%. The same can be said for the fee expense on net interest income. You see the level at 4.2, but again, also in this case, there is a one-off contribution of recalculation of the impact for the full year. Again, also on this post, we do expect, again, a number around 3, 3.5 million for this quarter. The other part of costs, operating costs, on page 13, you see that the overall cost increased by 6.2%. Focusing on the fourth quarter, you can see a positive write-up in non-core items due to, say, conservative provision for M&A activity, previous M&A activity. You see stable sales personnel costs. And then an increase in core operating costs that is broadly in line with our expectation. The overall core operating costs increased by 7%, 7.2, slightly higher than the guidance. But once you exclude the setup for BG Swiss and the impact of the national banking contract, the increase is only 4.3%. The great operating leverage is pretty clear at page 14, where you see that the operating costs out of total assets closed at 0.28, and cost-income ratio are both at the lowest level. So, to sum up, we are very happy with these results, and we are very optimistic on the continuation of these trends for this year. On the revenue side, we do expect a net interest income at around 300 million euros and a significant expansion of the same investment fees commission. On the cost side, we continue to stay stick to the range of 5-6%. Probably this year we could have some one-off, but we are confident to maintain costs under control. Moving on the non-operating charges, here you will see an increase, and this is strictly in line with our prudent and consistent approach to provisioning. The increase is primarily driven by three major components. One is a technical factor. You see $10 million for the change in discount rate on actuarial funds. you see that the reduction in interest rate has a negative impact on these actuarial funds. Then there are some strategic initiatives, €12 million, €3 million for the M&A, and here it is clear that it is about Intermonte, and then €9 million of staff provision for voluntary early retirement to promote, of course, generational growth and skill turnover last there are some commercial initiatives designed to benefit our clients to support the recent reorganization of our financial advisors network in particular we have 5 million euro for retention in 22 million euro for other risks and charges linked to commercial initiatives and other adjustments last but not least tax rate Below our guidance, 24.3, and this is due to a favorable mix, so higher contribution from our foreign entities. Page 17, let's spend a few words on our balance sheet. Here you can see a positive trend in the overall total liabilities and equities. Overall the total deposit closed at 14.5 billion euros with a cost of funding pretty stable compared to the third quarter of last year at 1.17. On the other side, you can see the overall total assets and interest-bearing assets with 15.3 billion of interest-bearing assets with an acceleration in financial assets and loans to banks and other assets, and an overall yield at 3.4%, where you have a slight reduction in loans to banks and loans to clients, and stable margin in financial assets. So, as I mentioned, we do expect an overall slight increase in client deposit for this year and an overall net interest margin of around 300 million euros. It means slightly lower compared on year-on-year basis. Page 19, you can see the dividend proposal for the AGM. As I mentioned, we will propose 2.8 euros per share or 76% of dividend payout ratio. This dividend will be paid in two tranches. The first one 2.15 in the second quarter of this year and the second 0.65 in the first quarter of next year. Just I would like to remind you that we will pay the second tranche of 2023 dividend payout on the 24th of February. Last but not least, page 20, you can see the total capital ratio, pretty strong, 24.4, and these include also the new 81, leverage ratio at 5.9, and liquidity coverage ratio, net stable funding ratio, well above RAP requirement. Liquidity coverage ratio close at 332, while net stable funding ratio at 224. Okay so now let's comment the commercial results. Some very strong achievements. Page 22 you can see the overall assets at 103.8 and nowadays we are very close to 105. The overall acceleration is driven by all the components but with a significant contribution of asset under management. Asset under management are very close to 64 billion or 6.5 billion euro higher than the previous year. You see same trend in the assets under advanced advisory. So summing up asset under management and asset under advance advisory, referring to asset under custody, you see that the overall total assets with an investment fees exceeded 70 billion euro. If you go through this increase, especially with the focus on asset management products, page 2.3, You see that the 63.9 billion euro are well explained by recovery in the traditional life policies, 14.9, and this is very positive because now it's a U-turn compared to the last two years, and a very significant acceleration in the managed solutions. Two ratios. are very interesting. Bottom left of page 2.3. First of all, you see that the ratio managed solutions out of total assets bottom out. Now this ratio stands at 47.2. So, no, no, as you said, we start seeing no more headwind, but positive tailwind. And this is important because we have plenty of asset under custody to switch in asset under management. Second, if you work out the overall wrappers, so including both insurance and financial wrappers, out of managed solutions, this ratio exceeded 50%. And you know that insurance wrappers and financial wrappers are key to provide a very high quality service to our client with a strong margin as well. Page 2.4, we go through the overall net inflows. We already commented a very strong December. Overall net inflow 6.6. the overall assets under investment closed at 3.8 or almost at 59% of total net inflows. So again, very strong numbers both from asset under management and asset under advanced advisors. If we focus on asset under management, page 2.5, you can see that the overall contribution comes mostly from managed solutions. Managed solutions are made up by two major components. Wrappers, 1.6 billion in financial wrappers, 0.9 billion in insurance wrappers, all about the fourth quarter of last year when we deal with the insurance wrappers thanks to new initiatives. And then if we focus on the managed solutions, the direct distribution of funds, you can see that we closed 2024 with 1 billion of new inflows for the in-house offering minus 0.6 for third parties. So you continue to see the ongoing rebalancing between third party funds and in-house funds. In terms of acquisition channel, productivity of the existing Salesforce, 5 billion, and an increasing contribution from recruitment, 1.6. This 1.6 comes from 173 new colleagues, 65 from FA's network, 55 from retail and private banks, and 54 are basically junior talented FAs, both new financial advisors or component of a team with a senior banker. I'll say that despite the sprint of the last year to close the three-year business plan, also January is a pretty good month. You know, for us, January has some seasonality because our financial advisor waits for our convention, the third week of January. Despite, say, the last rush of last year and this seasonality, we closed January with good results and with almost 40% in assets under investment. Very positive news from recruitment is not just because we have already 27 new colleagues, but because we continue to see an increasing interest in Banca Generali, part of which is driven by Intermonte. So just to sum up the commercial results, I do see upside in the asset management solutions thanks to performance. thanks to the recovery in the insurance and thanks to, I think, the best-of-breach solution in the wrapper space. The quality of the productivity of the existing sales force is consistent and continues to go in the right direction. but there is an upside coming from the recruitment activity. So at page 2.9 in the business update, you can see these considerations where we project volumes for this year. We set a floor at 6 billion euro and as I was mentioning, we have three strong upside. The first by far the most important recruitment activity. We are significant in very significant interest and we are reaching out also top, top bankers willing to provide private banking services and investment banking services as well. We are confident to start seeing positive contributions from our Swiss bank And we set the target of assets for Switzerland at 2 billion, with net inflows around 801 billion. There is some house cleaning of institutional position, but we start seeing a good environment also there. And the last but not least, Intermonte. Intermonte is a game changer, not only because we can internalize some margins, not only because we're going to provide M&A services, but also because we will be more and more attractive for financial advisors with a focus on corporate investment banking business, as well as for clients, entrepreneurs. In terms of product mix, we do expect at least 3.5 billion euros of assets under investment, Again, here we have some important tailwinds. First of all, favorable interest rate environment. Second, consistent performance of our in-house asset management. Third, new products that we're going to launch by the end of June. Last page, page 30, there is just a deep dive a deep dive on our new insurance wrapper. This could be a game changer in the offering of insurance products under new regulation for major innovation. The first one is about internal funds because there is a sort of brand new internal funds in which we will apply the same concept as the financial wrappers. Second, external funds, the best of, very significant selection of the best in class, so 60 funds to complete the offering of the internal fund. And then we'll extend ancillary services in terms of multiple options available, rebalance, accumulation, decumulation, coupons, and so forth. And the services will be also with a protection bias. So several new protection features, insurance riders, as well as medical surgery. So overall, we are very confident to deliver better quality of MedInfos for this year. Insurance will be part of the increasing quality. In-house funds and financial wrappers are here to stay with constant inflows. And again, last but not least, probably the best news comes from recruitment. Very positive because I do see greater interest from top senior banks. And now I will end over for the Q&A session.

Thank you. This is the Corsco Conference operator. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touch-tone telephone. To remove yourself from the question queue, please press star and two. Please pick up the receiver when asking questions. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. The first question is from Giovanni Razzoli of Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Good afternoon to everybody. I have three questions. The first one is on your target of commercial targets for 2025 with at least 3.5 billion of inflows of metal solution and more than 6 billion for the total financial assets. To be fair, I think that given the comment that you have made in terms of the favorable rate environment and the strong recruitment, I would have expected a little bit higher numbers when compared with those targets. Shall we see these as a minimum level for 2025 so that you can exceed the levels of 2024? Because my perception is that the external environment has never proved so favorable for Banco General in the last couple of years. We have a clear declining rate environment. And you have new products, you have Switzerland, and we have a new element, which in my view is very important. We have almost one third of the private banking market that is potentially in a turmoil because of the consolidation. And luckily enough, you are not part of this process. So I was wondering whether we shall see these targets as, you know, very minimal levels that you can easily exceed given this environment. Second question, again, on the Interest rate environment, I've seen that for the first time since many years, the inflow of traditional insurance policies turned positive in 24. It's still a small number, 300 million euros, but the change in the trend is there. I was wondering whether you can share with us what you expect specifically on these products for 2025. And last question is, can you share with us what is the evidence in previous years when the banks, for example, in 2019, 2020, were involved in the consolidation, whether you also recorded an acceleration of the recruits or the client acquisition, because my perception is that this time the level of consolidation is much significant than what we have ever seen and can be extremely positive for a bank like Banca Generale. Thank you.

thank you Giovanni you are right when we provide the projection for the full year at the beginning of the year we give numbers that we will achieve whatever the market context and the scenario so I must be sure to over deliver so you are right I'm more optimistic than ever due to the reason you mentioned just to answer the third question This time consolidation is different from my perception because it involves a greater number of banks and because it comes in a moment in which the financial advisory networks are ready to get a space. Just because, for example, 2019, 2020, We were facing NIFID review. There were some headwinds. So now we are very focused. We are all very focused on the client and financial advisory expansion. So I agree that the more the noise on consolidation, the more the positive result for the industry as a whole. Then I strongly believe to have also not only the beta but also the alpha because you mentioned the right initiatives. We have the Switzerland, we have Intermonte, we have the best financial advisors and reputation is going up and up. For the interest rate environment, let's say that I'm confident, very confident On the insurance products, we are more focused on the insurance wrappers where you can combine the traditional light solution with investing in the financial market. It's more profitable and it allows clients to switch also for different levels of risk without closing the investment. It's a very flexible solution, the best place to be to face increasing volatility. So very focused on the insurance wrappers and I do expect at least one billion of new net inflows on the insurance. Then, of course, also the traditional life insurance will provide a support. especially in the case of negative performance of the market. In this scenario, I'm more convinced in investing in the, let's say, insurance wrappers. Of course, having the solution also for downside scenarios makes me even more confident. Thank you.

The next question is from Gianluca Ferrari of Mediobanca. Please go ahead. Thank you.

Yes, hi, good afternoon. The first one is on page 12. And I was interested to hear why the cost of growth has remained stable despite 2024 has been a much, much better year in terms of quality of the inflows. So if you can remind us what are the gates for advisors to get bonuses and how it works. It's page 15 on the 56 million provisions, and in particular the 22 million related to commercial initiatives, if you can elaborate a bit more what are these initiatives. And the third one is on recruitment. It seems to me that also the churn went up a bit, not that much, but a bit. I was curious to hear your thoughts about the concordato preventivo, which kind of dynamics these created. And if you still see the churn in the industry being high due to that. And I mean, at the end of the day, it should be a zero sum game for all participants. But I mean, if you can also give your comment on on this. Thank you.

Thank you Gianluca. Starting from the payout ratio, the gate for the bonuses is a mix of net inflows and the quality of these net inflows. Consider that there is a amortization of the incentive in five years. So they say that you won't see the immediate effect because it is an average of five years of incentive. But I do not expect to see in the future exceeding 11-12% even in a very, very good time. Second, on the provision. I'm pretty sure that if there is a downside risk in the market, it's about the liquid products. I mean, we want to be more than conservative in having provision for securitization and some small initiatives we launched in the past. If I see when we recruit, we go through the portfolios of our competitors and you see that all the illiquid solutions have a price that is the nominal value. But you know, for example, the commercial loans, the real estate, some securitization went in the wrong direction, especially due to the increasing interest rates. So I want to be super conservative in thinking of how we're going to close securitization with clients. to have some buffer for other initiatives. We are the least exposed within the private banking industry to private markets, and I do see there is a risk for the industry. Third, for the churn, Concordato Preventivo. Again, this is pretty strange because you are right, Concordato Preventivo has some impact, But the increasing turnover, increasing churn in the financial advisors, in my opinion, is more driven by, let's say, the willingness to change a bank to expand business. So in our case, you see the numbers of financial advisors, a great part of them decided to join the bank due to some specific initiatives we launched last year. One is the Swiss project, one is Intermonte. There is a great interest in all the data projects, so how we can measure the potential of clients. Consider that we are the only financial advisory network with a dedicated segment for financial advisors with more than $150 million. So segmentation is very important because we provide services for the different classes of financial advisors. So I would say that in this case, at least in our case, I see growing interest for the quality of our offering and our approach and organization of the financial advisory network. It's true in the market you start seeing some increase in churn rate, but it's a smaller portfolio. It's not in the top one. Thank you.

Thank you.

For any further questions, please press star and one on your telephone. Mr. Mossa, there are no more questions registered at this time. Excuse me, there's one more question from Adele Palama of UBS. Please go ahead.

Yes, hi, good morning. Sorry, can you remind us again the sensitivity to interest rate change of the NII, please? Thanks.

Thank you, Adele. I will hand over to Tommaso to answer the question. Okay.

And basis points of interest rate accounts for 2.5 million of increase or decrease. But of course, we are much more sensitive to the increase of volumes. So 1 billion of increase, for example, in client deposit is around 9.5 million. We expect Euribor, of course, to go down during the next year. The average expectation for the Euribor is around 2.2-2.3%, the average for the whole year.

And we project €300 million of net interest income with this assumption on the Euribor. and a small increase in the client deposits, overall client deposits. Thank you, Adela.

Thanks.

As a reminder, if you wish to register for a question, please press star and one on your telephone. Mr. Mossa, there are no more questions now registered.

Okay, so thank you again for attending our conference call and we are available for course for follow-up. Have a good day.