Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena

Many thanks for joining us for the Montepasqui First Quarter 2025 Results presentation. We started the year at full speed. Our network successfully drove growth of commercial activity across the board. These were visible particularly in our fees and commission dynamic, the inflows into wealth management, and the trends in our lending and savings volumes. Overall, this is a confirmation of Montepaschi's competitive market strength, the value of our people, and our high-performing business model, which is able to adapt to changing macroeconomic conditions and evolve with the transformational trends reshaping the banking industry. Our ability to continuously reinforce our home foundation enable us to reach a record fully loaded CHAT1 ratio of 19.6, one of the highest in Europe, with a solid capital buffer. We are making excellent progress, confirming that our organization is agile and capable of adapting to our clients' needs effectively. Our people are lightning focused and committed proving once again that they are, without any question, our most valuable asset. To draw a metaphor for these first quarter results, I would call this the overture to the symphony, which I believe we are capable of performing with our planned business combination with Mediobanker. Since we made our offer in January, Mediobanca has woken up. We appreciate that it has recognized the need to focus on its core banking activities after more than a decade of relying on the dividends of its minority stake in general. As a part of this, it has announced an exchange offer on Banca Generali. We don't see this as an obstacle in our objective to create Italy's third major financial institution. We are fully determined to follow through on our transaction with the powerful endorsement that our shareholders gave us last month at our AGM.

Let me be crystal clear.

Mediobanca's offer for Banca Generali is not an alternative to our more transformative project. While it took our offer to energize Mediobanca into taking control of its balance sheet, the move to expand in wealth management is coherent with our industrial vision and ambition to create a new competitive force in Italian banking. Having said all that, we would clearly need to fully analyze the transaction strength and weaknesses. There are important questions that need to be answered before we can assess the financial impact for Banca Generale transaction.

Let's go now to some key highlights of first quarter results.

Net profit of the quarter hit Euro 413 million, up by 24% year-on-year, driven by a strong operating performance. Net operating profit came to Euro 448 million with positive yearly and quarterly trends, thanks to increased fees contribution, effective cost management, and reduction in cost of risk. Gross operating profit at $535 million was up quarter on quarter thanks to both higher revenues driven by the increase of fees and lower operating costs. Fees and commissions also supported the early trend, enabling us to cross $1 billion revenues as of last year, while HR costs were higher, mainly due to labor contract renewals. Strong commercial performance in key strategic areas, in particular with well-measured gross inflows of Euro 4.5 billion and Euro 1.7 billion of mortgages, both with significant growth compared to last year. Operating costs fell to Euro 472 million thanks to the strict discipline in the non-HR costs, enabling to partially offset the year-on-year increase of labor costs. Cost of risk at 46 bps, decreasing versus 53 bps in 2024, with a declining trend in line with the guidance for the year. The liquidity position of the bank continues to be sound. And finally, as I mentioned, quarter one ratio fully loaded at the record level on 18.6, supported by the positive impact from the first time adoption of Basel IV. Buffer on tier 1 ratio is close to the remarkable level of 890 bps. Let's move on now to more details of our results. As I have just mentioned, at Propio, the first quarter reached €413 million, up by 24.2% year-on-year, driven by strong operating performance, which confirmed the solidity of our business model. We noted that 14% growth versus the fourth quarter 2024, excluding positive net tax in both quarters. Now, moving to the next slide, we are presenting the net operating profit, which in the first quarter amounted to 448 million euro, showing a positive trend, growing plus 0.8 year-on-year, and growing plus 9.4 quarter-on-quarter. The dynamic was supported by increased contribution of fees and income, as well as effective operating cost management, while keeping cost and risk under control, in line with the guidance. Now let's see the gross operating profit, which reached 535 million euro in this quarter, increasing by 3% quarter-on-quarter. It was driven by both Revenues grow up by 1% quarter on quarter, and lower operating costs minus 1%. Revenue in the quarter crossed 1 billion euro again, almost practically confirming last year level. Early trend on gross operating profit was supported by resilient revenues, also thanks to the strong net fee income contribution. partly offsetting increased costs impacted by labor contract renewal and higher variable remuneration pool. Cost-to-income ratio is improved to 47% compared to 48 in the fourth quarter 2024. Moving to the next slide where we are presenting some selected information on commercial performance. The activity of our network is focused on key strategic areas. and this delivering results in a very sustainable manner. With this slide, I would like to show just a couple of KPIs that are reflecting the outstanding performance of the business. Total commercial savings were €167 billion and increased by more than €5 billion year on year. Wealth management gross inflows crossed €4.5 billion in a quarter, up by 22% year on year. New retail mortgages granted in the first quarter reached 1.7 billion euros more than three times compared to one year ago, which is a confirmation of successful relaunch of the lending activity. New consumer finance flows amounted to almost 340 million with a 23% year-on-year dynamics. I would like to take this opportunity to thank our colleagues for these excellent results. they have achieved. This is successful commercial banking. Now, let's have a look to net interest income evolution. In the first quarter of 2025, net interest income reached €543 million, with both yearly and quarterly trends in line with the guidance given to the market. The level of net interest income was affected by the decline in interest rate only partially offset by effective management or cost of funding. Now, looking at the volumes, let's start with loans. We are reporting very strong net loans dynamic in the first quarter, with the growing retail is miscomponent. Practically, we are growing by 1.6 billion euro. which translates to 2.5% quarter-on-quarter, with a positive trend also year-on-year. It has enabled us to increase market share since the beginning of the year. Such a growth was possible thanks to the acceleration of our commercial activity, and this is a part of our strategy to mitigate the impact of decreasing rates on net interest rates. Now, total commercial savings at the level of 167 billion. They are up by 5.2 billion euro compared with the first quarter 2024. That means 3.2% higher year on year, with growth recorded across all components. The quarterly trend was almost stable, confirming the solid funding base and reflecting also a selected pricing approach towards the deposit. Also on the third deposit, we are gaining market share from the beginning of the year. Now, with regard to our banking book securities portfolio, which includes assets classified at amortized cost and fair value towards EI, it stood at Euro 9 billion, almost

11 billion, sorry, almost in line with the previous quarter.

The fair value through CIs, portfolio decreased quarter-on-quarter at Euro 1 billion, with duration further decreased to around 1.6 years, and credit spread sensitivity down quarter-on-quarter to a marginal level of Euro 200 million. The dynamic of the fair value through P&L portfolio increased quarter-on-quarter is related to our market-making activity.

Now, let's move on to fees and commission income.

Total fees in the first quarter are in Euro 400 million area, up by 8.9% year-on-year and 6.5% quarter-on-quarter. This growth was mainly driven by the strong performance of wealth management and advisory fees, which increased by 15% year-on-year and 21% quarter-on-quarter, again thanks to the excellent commercial activity and reflecting strong focus on key strategic areas of our business plan. Commercial banking fees growing by 2.7 year-on-year with a quarterly dynamic reflecting typical year-end seasonality effect. Regarding cost, in the first quarter, operating costs amounted to 472 million euros, decreasing by 1% quarter-on-quarter, supported by continuous focus on non-HR cost optimization and discipline spending management process. The year-on-year increase, plus 2.2%, was mainly due to the impact of the renewal of the labor contract, partially offset by the effect of street costs and discipline in non-HR costs and managerial expertise in this respect. Let's move now to the asset quality slide. As you can see, the gross NP stock decreased in the quarter to 3.6 billion euro, with secure components representing more than 17% of the total non-performing exposure. Gross NP ratio is down at 4.5%, and net NP ratio at 2.2%. We have not seen particular signs of deterioration so far, and as you can see, the quality of our MP remain under control, so that we expect to further improve our KPIs in the next quarter. Also leveraging on the effects of our project, aiming at further improvement of our internal workout activity, and putting in place also some action in order To decrease the stock, we believe that at the end of the second quarter, we will show an additional reduction of this portfolio. Now, a few words on cost of risk and coverage. The cost of risk was at 46 basis points in the first quarter 2025 versus 53 basis points in full year 2024. There is a decline, and this is in line with the guidance for 2025. NP coverage improved at 49.5. And I believe that all these trends are in line with our strategy and reflect our conservative approach in managing risk. Liquidity, I think the soundness of our liquidity position was confirmed again in the quarter. An encumbered counterbalancing capacity stood at euro 32 billion. ECB funding for the decrease now accounting for 6% of total liabilities, down from 9% a year ago. Liquidity coverage at 156 level and net stable funding ratio at 130%. And this is a testament of the solidity of our funding structure. Now let's move on to the capital. The common equity tier 1 ratio we reported at a solid level on 18.6%, one of the highest in the European banking system. Factoring in, starting this quarter, the positive effect of Basel IV, mainly on non-operating respected assets. This impact was somehow anticipated, but the positive effect was even higher than expected. I would like to remind that all ratios include net profit of the first quarter 2025 and are calculated net of dividend, we assume, 75% payout ratio on per-tax profit. The TR1 ratio buffer remains at a very high level of around 890 bps. We have a super strong capital position, and we continue to generate capital. So, let me go back to our transaction, which will give birth to a new major player in the Italian banking system, one that is highly dynamic a leader in key specialized business, and with a robust capital position. This is a new competitive force that aims to play an increasingly virtuous role in supporting families, businesses, and local communities. I'd like to thank the CEO of Mediobanca who this morning spent time to suggest what is the best for Montepaschi. And I would like to say that we are already awake, and we like to challenge ourselves with innovative transformational deal, which for sure require vision, skills, and execution capability.

The offer is progressing at pace,

And in line with the announced timeline, supervisory authorities, authorization and antitrust authorization are respected by June or the beginning of July.

Followed by approval of the exchange offer document and start of exchange offer period.

On April 17th, the capital increase was approved by Monte Paschi shareholders with more than 86% of the represented capital voting in favor, demonstrating significant support by full spectrum of our shareholders. And our offer represent an unparalleled financial proposition for all shareholders. The transaction is expected to generate annual tax synergies of approximately 700 million along with deferred tax asset benefits of around 400 million per year over the next six years. It is projected to deliver double-digit accretion and adjusted earning per share, unadjusted earning per share, and a strong organic capital generation, supporting a potential dividend payout ratio of up to 100% without impacting capital levels. The combined entity is projected to have a performance at one ratio of over 16% with a significant excess of capital at our disposal. We believe our offer represents fair value based on Mediobanca fundamental and historical performance. And what is important to underline, that is our offer provides immediate and certain value for Mediobanca shareholders. I'm just repeating in order to be very clear. Immediate and certain value for Mediobanca shareholders. We did not suddenly wake up one day to discover that 40% of our balance sheet was in the hands of another management team in a completely different sector than our own area of expertise. The proposed combination is focused on creating stronger, more capital-generative business in the markets where we compete. It is not about power games or control of another firm. It is about the bottom line playing In the meantime, the financial benefits of exchanging offers on Banca Generali for Mediobanca shareholders are less evident. What is certain is that the operation consumes capital. 80 bps, says Mediobanca. According to some analysts, the capital erosion is estimated even above 100 bps. That means more limited room for capital distribution. At the first glance, the transaction appears to be neutral, if not negative, for earnings per share, even when considering Mediobanca-estimated synergies with Banca Generali. Dividend per share making it complicated to understand where the transaction is accretive to shareholders in terms of dividend distribution. There is also no mention of the potential negative impact of cancelling the Banca Generale brand. So financial benefits of the Mediobanca-Banca Generale deal are not evident in any case. And our offer, on the contrary, delivers a significantly better financial proposition for Mediobanca shareholders. Among unclear issues, there is also no mention of the economics of the announced long-term strategic partnership agreement in the Bank Assurance and Asset Management business, especially in comparison with the recent agreement signed on April 17 between Banca Generali and the Sicurazioni Generali. The envisaged transaction includes also several areas of attention which make the deal uncertain at this stage. Finally, objectively, Mediobanca doesn't have a track record in successfully integrating a business of this scale.

Banca Generali is not an investment banking boutique. So let me now conclude by recapping the key messages.

We are moving ahead of our target thanks to our strong and resilient business model and the extraordinary diligence of our colleagues across the bank. We deliver strong economic and commercial performance, net profit plus 24% year-on-year, resilient revenue supported by significant fee growth plus 8.9% year-on-year, and acceleration of the lending business, new retail mortgage in first quarter three times versus first quarter last year. New consumer loan close up by 23% year on year. Cost of risk reduction in line with guidance. Capital ratio at the top of the banking sector with 18.6% quarter one fully loaded ratio. On the back of the positive first quarter dynamic, 2025 profit before tax expected to be higher year on year.

with further room to grow in 2026, beyond our business plan.

Our vision on banking industry envisages the creation of a new, powerful, competitive force to better serve families, large company, small and medium business, and the local communities. Montepaschi intends to play a leading role in this intense and necessary phase of consolidation in the Italian market. The time has come to change the approach to banking for the good of all stakeholders, starting with clients. We will expand distribution channels, enrich the offering of products and services to our customers, open new market segments and accelerate investment in technology. All of this requires The shareholders who supported Montepasqui Turnaround know, and all shareholders, I believe, know that we didn't just wake up to the idea that our capital must be actively allocated.

It is the lifeblood of our business.

We are grateful for their support, and we will not let them down in the future. The Business Cooperation of Monte Pasqua and Mediobanca puts us in a leading position to accelerate towards what we expect will be the most important phase of consolidation of our industry. Thank you very much, and we are ready to answer to your question.

Thank you. This is the Chorus Call Conference operator. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and 1 on their touchtone telephone. To remove yourself from the question queue, please press star and 2. Please pick up the receiver when asking questions. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. The first question is from Ignacio Ulargui, BNP Paribas Exane. Please go ahead.

Thanks very much for the presentation and for taking my questions. I have two questions, if I may. The first one is on the strong commercial performance in 1Q, which was quite solid. How should we think about growth going forward? Do you think that there is still more potential growth of growth coming both on lending and on the, especially on the deposits and asset management side. And also was curious about how the margins on this new production has been compared to the back book, whether you are finding it profitably, the growth. The second question is on capital. I mean, what is the rationale to have such a strong capital buffer? And could you consider to distribute more to shareholders? Just one clarification, if I may. On the CET1 ratio pro forma, shouldn't we expect the translation of the increase in capital in the quarters to translate to the combined Mediabanca-Montedipaschi of 16 being above 17? Thank you.

So thank you. I will address the first question.

So last year, we planned to reinforce our commercial structure, appointing a new deputy general manager in charge to the business, new head of retail, new head of corporate. So the idea was really to give a boost to our capability to grow on the commercial activity. And I believe that already starting from the second part of last year, we saw significant improvement in all dimensions of what is the commercial activity. So first quarter is a confirmation. We are quite confident we can keep this pace because it's just not a matter of higher performance, right? But it's just a combination of all the action we put in place. organization, people, products, and at the same time also new tools that will help to be more effective in commercial activity using also some technology that is supporting us in better defined customer profile. Clearly, we have to match and to combine in the best way the trading between the price that we are offering for attracting new business and our profitability, right? But we strongly believe that We have such a penetration on our territories that the customer will follow us in dealing with our bank and this sort of loyalty that has been proved through the years will help us in growing in terms of volumes with a good trade-off between price and volumes. I believe we can keep the margin and we can keep growing. And this is a confirmation that was mentioned. What I was saying is confirmed, but also the trend in market share. At least this is what we plan up to the end of this year. Clearly with some seasonal fluctuation that will come on the third quarter, but also second quarter, we believe will be quite successful. So the rationale on capital buffer, right? The rationale is that in this position, we can really afford to follow our project, combining and joining efforts with Mediobanca. And as I was mentioning, to be in the position to have an active role in the second phase of consolidation. The excess of capital will help us to be stronger from a national point of view, and I believe can give an additional option to be even more generous with our shareholders in terms of remuneration. As we were mentioning, the combined entity will have the benefit of a capital is about 16. And despite the 100% payout ratio, we will keep growing in capital. So this is an important difference that I believe investors are appreciating because we can ensure sustainability of the remuneration of our shareholders for the next five years. while keeping higher capital for additional benefit that can come, as I said, industrially and financially for our shareholders. It's just not a matter of projection of one year or two years. And it's not just a matter to decrease the capital to the level from 14 to 15 or 12. We are confirming a strong level of capital for the benefit of all our shareholders. And we will try to optimize in the best way we can once the transaction will be completed. Now, Andrea, if you want to add something.

Yes. Good morning to everybody. Ciao, Nacho. On your last question, as we said, this chat one ratio following the transaction performance of December 24 would be 16.2%. And as the CEO has just said, we can keep, let's say, the capital stable over time while distributing 100% dividends. So on the Basel IV impact, it is partially factoring in our projections because, as you might remember, we gave a guidance of 2 billion RWA reduction. And now the impact is more positive. It is more about 3 billion in terms of RWA reduction. The delta, yes, can be translated in terms of higher capital for the combined entity.

Thank you very much.

The next question is from Giovanni Razzoli, Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Good morning to everybody. Two questions. One, again, on the very, very strong CT1 ratio on a standalone basis. which are expected to grow further in the next couple of quarters. So you would be in the condition to approach 20% soon, is my understanding correct? Or do you see growing the volumes on some headwinds which may prevent this trajectory? And the second question on the Mediobank and Banca Generale transaction, Are there any read-across between the outcome of the Mediobanca General meeting, which has been called to approve the offer on Banca Generali, and your offer?

Thank you. So on...

Let's see, your first question about still capital projections. No, I just remember, just remind, sorry, what we gave as guidance, i.e. that, as mentioned many times, we will have the impact of the update of the internal models by year end 25, the impact of which is around 800, 900 million euros RWA's. And the FRTP impact potential next year, or maybe the year after, or maybe never, then depends on what the regulation will be, which is currently submitted in front of the new euros. While we have, for sure, factoring in our projections, they sustain on dynamics that we are successfully experiencing.

Peter Kroos.

So Giovanni, thank you for your question. So the answer is quite simple. I'm fully convinced that the investor that will vote for the Mediobank transaction to the next general meeting shareholder will deliver the shares to us. Because as I said, the two transactions are not alternatives. And I believe this is what looking at the financial and the economics and the benefit that investor already started understanding by approving our increase of capital, the general meeting shareholders, there would be a sort of consistent behavior, right? At any case, we will start again, you know, our, contacts with our investors to be sure that our transaction would be successful. But in any case, I don't see any negative or conflicting situation by voting for General Meeting Showdown Mediobanca and delivering the share. This is what I believe would be the common behavior of investors.

Thank you.

The next question is from Luis Pratas, Autonomous. Please go ahead.

Hi there. Thank you for taking my questions. My first one is as well on the Mediabank or Banca Generali offer. I want to understand better your strategic flexibility. In the scenario that Mediabank shareholders approve the Banca Generali offer and you gain control of Mediabank afterwards, can you actually stop the Banca Generali offer if you want to? And related to this, have you calculated the incremental capital impact of doing the Banca Generali transaction under the same terms offered by Mediabanca in case, once again, you gain control of Mediabanca afterwards? And then more about your business plan. Fees accelerated this quarter. Year-on-year growth was around 7%. I had off the business plan run rate. How do you expect this line to evolve in the rest of 2025?

Thank you. Okay, thank you. Thank you for the question. So, about the first question.

As I mentioned, the financial terms, timetable, and the offer condition to which bank generally offer a subject are absolutely still unclear. Therefore, it's very difficult to make an assessment on this transaction overall.

at this point of time. Excuse me, Luis, can you repeat the second question, please?

The second question is on fees. It's basically, it's regarding the guidance of 2025, if you could give your expectations for the rest of the year, since it started very well in Q1.

So, as I mentioned, this quarter was an excellent performance. And in our understanding, I think it's something that in some way can be more or less repeated, as I said, with some seasonality in the third quarter. So, overall, we strongly believe that for the full year, we can almost keep the pace more or less of the first quarter. So even slightly above the guidance we gave at the beginning of the year.

Okay, thank you. And maybe can I just do a quick follow-up on the full year guidance? I wanted to confirm if the full year guidance of 2025 is still to achieve a pre-tax profit of at least in line with 2024, so the 1.4 billion, or can you actually even be above this level? Thank you.

No, no, I think I was mentioning during the presentation, we gave a guideline this time not to be lower. This time we're saying we'll be higher. And this will create a base to have also an IR2026. It's definitely better than what was planned.

Sounds good. Thank you.

The next question is from Andrea Lisi, Equita. Please go ahead.

Hi to everybody, thank you for taking my questions. The first one is on the evolution of the commercial dynamics in terms of inflows in direct collection that you have observed in April and which trend do you expect going on and if you can provide us a detail regarding the investment fees on the contribution of any upfront or performance fees that contributed to total investment fees in the first quarter. The second question is on the NII, in particular if you confirm the sensitivity you have provided previously and which trend of volumes in terms of loan evolution do you expect also regarding the current scenario and the feeling you have regarding how your clients are approaching for new lending and if 2026 NII given the current curve is seen above or below the 2025 levels. Then just a clarification regarding your offer on Mediobanca, in particular regarding the success threshold of 67%. That is a threshold that can be waived. Do you have any detail regarding a potential minimum threshold condition or you're just still committed to stay above 67% and so on? Thank you.

Okay, so as I was mentioning, right, saying that we expect to keep the pace of the first quarter, it's clear that I based my assumption on the fact that already April is getting good signals in terms of inflow into what's mentioned products. So positive on that. I think we were mentioning also this time we have a standard of almost percentage of upfront fee on total asset management fees, more or less is between 35-40%. We are not having our portfolio a significant portion of product where performance fee forcing so practically there is no particular one-off in the total figures that we have because practically the product majority of our products without performance fee I believe anything for think I will give the floor to Andrea yeah the sensitivity is

Generally stable, the current sensitivity for minus 100 bits per shift of the curve is in the neighborhood of minus 150 million euros, slightly less actually. Then for 26, given, let's say, the resilience of our NII, the positive loan dynamics and also the long end of the curve being a bit higher than expected. Actually, we expect an NII which is stable or increasing compared to 25. And this is supported also, again, by loan dynamics that we expected to be above market.

As you were mentioning, our offer is for 67% of the shares, and we are confident about our target, so we are not making any thoughts on a different level up to now.

Thank you.

The next question is from Hugo Cruz, KBW. Please go ahead.

Hi, can you hear me? Sorry. Hi, can you hear me? Yes. Thank you. Thanks for the time. I wanted to ask about your M&A strategy. It sounds to me from what you said that if you succeed with Mediabanca, you won't stop there and you want to pursue the next stage of consolidation. So I wanted to understand what that means exactly. Do you think there could be further... Do you see yourself as a buyer or as a target in that second round? How concentrated do you think the Italian market could end up being in, say, five years' time? Thank you.

So I think I was mentioning also in the previous presentation, I believe that still we needed to further develop have a process of consolidation in Italy and probably should be a consolidation that should be a bit innovative. That's why I think the second waiver will start coming two years from from now probably. And I believe giving our capital position know how integration The strength of our network, because whatever is the consolidation, you need to have a strong franchise. The strength of our brands, the quality of the people, we believe that we can be an important player in this environment, right, of further consolidation. And the capital position that we have will give also, according to me, a competitive advantage. in order to look for the best solution for all our stakeholders and to ensure a sustainable remuneration to our shareholders.

Thank you very much.

As a reminder, if you wish to register for a question, please press star and one on your telephone. Gentlemen, there are no more questions registered at this time. I turn the conference back to Mr. Lovaglio for any closing remarks.

Thank you very much for this opportunity, and we're going to see for the next presentation that is expected to be August, hopefully earlier. Thank you very much.