5/7/2020

speaker
Coruscant Conference Operator
Operator

Excuse me. The Coruscant Conference operator. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touch-tone telephone. To remove yourself from the question queue, please press star and two. We can be asked to use handsets when asking questions. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. The first question is from Giovanni Razzoli of Equita. Please go ahead.

speaker
Giovanni Razzoli
Analyst, Equita

Good afternoon. Quite a few questions on my side. The first one is the guidance for the cost of risk on a full year basis. Bpm Societa Ord Bpm Societa Ord Bpm Societa Ord Bpm Societa Ord Bpm Societa Ord Bpm Societa Ord I was wondering what was the contribution of this, and I ask you this because I've seen that the elder to collect and sell reserves related to the government bond portfolio had a massive negative impact in the Q1 on the CT1, minus 47 basis points. So without those benefits, the CT1 would have gone down significantly, and this reminds me To the other question, I was wondering whether in the context of the new business plan, you may consider an in-depth revision of your exposure to the BTP that is just increasing the volatility of your CT1 in conditions like this. I understand there is a strong contribution to profits, but we see that the profits probably are significantly more volatile. The very last few questions. Can you tell us, out of the $4 billion of state-guaranteed loans that you expect to issue as part of the decreto liquidita and decreto cura Italia, what is an estimate of the rates that you expect to apply to these loans? I ask you this to understand what kind of Bpm Societa Ord Bpm Societa Ord Bpm Societa Ord Bpm Societa Ord Bpm Societa Ord or is it going to be a brand new business plan? I ask you this because we had more or less the same period as you did the plan, Unicredit, Mediobanca, and Bipper, and they still stick to their business plan and strategic actions. So I wonder whether you may reconsider in depth what you've done with the new board, with the

speaker
Giuseppe Castagna
Chief Executive Officer, Banco BPM

beginning of March business plan or whether it's going to be just a rolling of the new economic estimates on the same action thank you this is more a private session for you Mr. Razzoli but I will try to do my best also because I don't know if I was able to take care of all your questions but starting from guidance of course we were very attentive in trying to have the best of our capability in understanding the situation right now given the amount of also taking into account of course the impact from guarantee and moratoria which is something very consistent in the light of a very bad GDP provision for this year so the average as I mentioned to you sensitivity was minus 8% for this year plus 4% far and a half percent for 2021. To this, we applied different sensitivity related to the effect of the moratoria and of the guarantee. Of course, in different scenarios, which I simplified when I mentioned the potential amount nowadays possible. We don't know the evolution. And the final number was 70 million, which increases the cost of risk to 80 basis points. I am not giving you already a guidance, of course, as I mentioned before, it's very difficult to have a guidance right now, but if our assumption, more than on GDP, on the effect of the guarantee would have the effect that we expect in terms of LGD mitigation and PD enhancement, the first through the guarantee, the second through the moratoria, I feel that 80 to 90 basis points could be a good assumption. With this, I think I took the first two questions. Herakle contribution was minimal, so I don't think that has contributed a lot to offset the big impact of the H2 collecting sales, negative effect. I think Heracle was worth 7 basis points, so not a big amount. I think it was bigger, if you allow me, the dividend distributed by Agos, which, as you know, lowered the threshold of our participation above 10%, which had an impact of 12 basis points BTP we have not changed a lot our approach in BTP as I mentioned to you the only differences are related to the training activity we have an average maturity of few months and we are very able to offset these quarter by quarter Meanwhile in terms of health to maturity portfolio increases of around 1 billion and in terms of health to collect and sales is almost the same amount but reducing the duration to 2.3 years. So I would consider that also the loss already applied to our capital as a very short span in order to potentially recover. The average rates, I can be very open on the 25,000 because we announced that we are taking the overall spread of 1.2%. Bpm Societa Ord Bpm Societa Ord Bpm Societa Ord Bpm Societa Ord Bpm Societa Ord Bpm Societa Ord Bpm Societa Ord interest rate given by the by the government and of course most of these transactions will be due in a normal and fair competition environment and so will apply possibly and I imagine lower rates than the current one because of the effect of the guarantee but all in all would be an enhancement of the return on capital of this transaction. Business plan, if I can simplify, I would say that we stick to the revenue side strategy of the old business plan as of today because of course as I mentioned if we were able to do a new business plan today we would do that so if the situation will not change too much and the results of the first quarter confirm the idea that we had about the fast growing line of our revenues meanwhile we are of course learning some lessons from Bpm Societa Ord Bpm Societa Ord Bpm Societa Ord Bpm Societa Ord

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