Piraeus Finl Hldgs Sa

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. I'm Poppy, your course call operator. Welcome and thank you for joining the Piraeus Financial Holdings conference call and live webcast to present and discuss Piraeus full year 2023 financial results and business plan 2024-2026. All participants will be in a listen-only mode and the conference is being recorded. The presentation will be followed by a question and answer session. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, you may signal an operator by pressing star and zero on your telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Pireos Financial Holdings CEO, Mr. Christos Megalou. Mr. Megalou, you may now proceed.

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to today's conference call. Today, we will cover our full year 2023 financial results, as well as the revised three-year guidance vis-à-vis our financial outlook. This is Christos Megalou, Chief Executive Officer, and I'm joined today by our group CFO, Theo Nardelis, Chrysanthi Berbati, and Xenophon Gamalas. In Q4 and full year 2023, Pireus delivered the strongest set of financial results it has delivered to date. We maintained our focus on net revenue growth, cost containment, and operating excellence with an outcome we are all very proud of. Before going into more detail on the group's performance, I would like to comment briefly on the current Greek macroeconomic environment. In 2023, the Greek economy sustained its growth momentum with an estimated GDP increase of approximately 2.5%, significantly exceeding the Eurozone average. In the second half of 2023, the Greek sovereign was upgraded to the investment-grade status for the first time in more than a decade, signifying a major milestone for the country and the banking sector, while the potential upgrade of Greece to develop market status by MSCI will be another catalyst towards a more holistic convergence to our European Union counterparts. Let's start our presentation with slide 5. which depicts our performance in the fourth quarter and full year 2023. The group's profitability increased strongly, continuing the positive trends of previous quarters, supported by top-line outperformance, improved efficiency and normalization of loan loss provisions. Slide 6 points out the highlights of our 2023 performance. We generated normalized earnings of 80 cents per share which are record high for Pareus, while we run ahead of the full year 2023 guidance. We reported a return on average tangible book of 16.6%, again exceeding our target. We delivered 37% of net revenue growth versus the previous year, accompanied by solid loan pass-through, low deposit beta, and further growth in net fees. Operating expenses were reduced by 4% year on year. despite the inflationary environment, with G&A costs down 11% year-on-year on the back of our prudent approach of non-staff expenses. Our asset quality dynamics improved further with the NPE ratio halving to 3.5% in 2023 and NPE coverage standing at 62%, up 7 percentage points versus the previous year. We achieved euros 1.6 billion net credit expansion in 2023, in line with targets building on the strengths of our franchise and front office human capital across the country. Our pro forma CET1 ratio stands at a solid 13.3%, 170 basis points higher versus a year ago, while Emeril sits at 24.1%, surpassing the 24 target of 21.9%. Finally, in 2023, we increased our assets under management by 34% to 9.3 billion. As you can see from slide 7, we have outperformed most of our 2023 financial targets. Slide 8, covers our earnings results in further detail. As you can see, improved profitability resulted in tangible book value per share reaching EUR 5.08, up 13% year on year, enhancing further our capital distribution capacity for the years to come. Slides 9 to 11 present all the key drivers of our accelerated net interest income growth, with net interest margin expanding to 2.77% in Q4 2023, loan pass-through reaching 78%, and deposit beta standing at 13% in December 2023. Slides 12 and 13 outline the evolution of our net fee income, which increased by 14% year-on-year and reached euros 144 million in Q4. The group has been consistently increasing its net fee income over assets, now reaching 74 basis points, fueled by well-diversified sources. Paireus' widening outperforming This metric versus its Greek peers is a result of our focused strategy on expanding and diversifying our revenue sources and our market-leading footprint. Our pursuit of further operating efficiency bears fruit despite the inflationary headwinds. We have managed to reduce our operating expenses by 7% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, as shown on slide 14, while our G&A costs recorded a 25% drop year-on-year to €64 million, a record low for our group. The strong improvement of our operational efficiency resulted in best-in-class cost-to-core income ratio of 29% in the fourth quarter of 2023. Slide 15 provides a summary of our asset quality indicators. Our MPE ratio halved to 3.5% in 2023, exceeding our expectations, driven both by MPE cleanup initiatives and positive results from the organic effort. Meanwhile, Q4 organic cost of risk dropped to approximately 60 basis points. At the same time, MPE coverage increased to a prudent level of 62%. On slides 16 and 17, we present the dynamics of our performing loan book. Strong Q4 led to a solid net credit expansion of euros 1.6 billion in 2023, in line with our targets. The expansion has been supported by Pareus' strong take-up of the RRF, with euros 250 million of own financing disbursed in the year. Paereus has a superior liquidity profile, presented on slides 18 and 19. Our deposit base is granular, stable, and of high quality. Our liquidity ratios are all solid, as evidenced by the 241% liquidity coverage ratio and the 61% loan-to-deposit ratio, both in the top range of the European spectrum. Turning to our capital base on slide 20, a strong capital build-up of roughly 40 basis points in the fourth quarter, drove CET ratio to 13.3% and the total capital ratio to 18.2% in December 23, while accounting for a 10% dividend payout, which, as we have mentioned previously, is only the very first step of our distribution plan. On slide 21, you can see how our new wealth and asset management strategy continues to produce strong results with assets under management reaching euros 9.3 billion at the end of 2023, recording a 9% increase in Q4. Our strong 2023 results position the group well among the broader group of regional peers. To give you some context, on slides 23 to 32, we present the key metrics for Pireus versus domestic and regional peers. In all KPIs are comparables. As outlined on slide 23, our return on average tangible book remains among the strongest in the region. Capitalizing on our strong 2023 performance, Today, we announce our new financial targets for the 24-26 period. Slide 35 summarizes our macro and market assumptions, while slides 36 to 38 display the business plan highlights and the financial KPIs for the next three years. Slide 36 presents the core KPIs of our business plan. We expect net profit of approximately euros 1 billion per year, with loans expanding at over 5% per annum. Our MPE ratio is expected to fully converge towards European average levels, landing at approximately 2.5% at the end of 2026. CET1 ratio is anticipated to increase to circa 15% in 2026. Return to industry-level capital distribution is an important part of our strategy, and we are now aiming at returning around 50% of our profits to our shareholders out of the 2025 profits and onwards. All in, we opt. for tangible book value of approximately euros 8 billion by 2026, and we target to a sustainable, normalized return on tangible book value of around 12%, or 14% based on a CET1 ratio of 13%. Slides 39 to 46 present in detail the drivers and assumptions behind our 2024-2026 targets. Slide 47 provides a plan regarding our digital bank, Snappy. that is expected to be launched by mid-2024. Slides 48 to 52 depict our transformation program pillars and aspirations, while slide 53 summarizes our sustainability KPIs. The core of our strategy is to leverage Pareus's position as a leading driving source of growth and innovation for the Greek economy. We aim at continuing to support our customers and people as well as generating value for our shareholders. And with that, let's open the floor to your questions.

ladies and gentlemen at this time we will begin the question and answer session anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star followed by one on their telephone if you wish to remove yourself from the question queue then you may press star and two those participating via the webcast please review related information in the q a live session tab should you wish to ask a question For those participating in the question and answer session, please use your handset when asking your question for better quality. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. One moment for the first question, please. The first question comes from the line of Ismailo Eleni with Axia Ventures. Please go ahead.

Hello and congratulations for this great set of results. Just a couple of questions from my side. uh so attention seems to be shifting from on sustainability of earnings rather than the balance balance of strength so on the outlook for the capital distribution we see that you're lifting your dividend payout to 50 percent and i was wondering what makes you comfortable that this can be sustained over the longer term uh so that's question number one and number two is um on your uh ecb dfr assumptions between full year 23 and full year 24. Do you believe that the current macro data supports just the 25 bits drop, while consensus points to something slightly higher between something like 50 to 75 bits? Could you give us a little bit more color on your assumption here?

Thank you. Good afternoon, Eleni, and thank you for your questions. Let me answer the first one. We have been consistently delivering on our plan over the years and this is what makes us extremely confident that we will be in a position to maintain the same level of delivery as we move on in the years 24 to 26, where we believe that we will be in a position to create excess profitability and capital that we will be supporting a very strong performance also in dividend payout. We see the next few years as years of growth both in terms of top line. We have a strategy, a hedging strategy that will be protecting the NII and finally the bottom line and a sustainable profitability of a billion a year for the next three years that we believe will give us the ability to generate this excess capital that we need to be deployed. As far as the second part of your question, it is indeed true that we have been looking at the current plan with 25 basis points dropped towards the end of the fourth quarter, but the whole plan is is actually designed in such a way that there are a lot of levers that they will be in a position to maintain the level of profitability that we have included in our plan. And I wanted to ask Theo to give us two more details in that.

So, indeed, the DFR assumption is for a 25 base points drop. Now, that was the base scenario back when we were doing our plan, and the decision was to keep that assumption, primarily because, as you rightly pointed out, maybe that's not the most popular opinion right now, but this opinion keeps changing every week. So we have not found any deterministic macro scenario right now that supports us to make a change. That said... The NII profile of 2024 is not dependent on that. A faster rate drop would create some headwinds and equally some tailwinds. So the NMDs would probably kick in, would not have the negative carry that they would. Most likely TD migration would not be happening at the speed that the plan assumes. So, I would say, either way, the 2024 NII is a very credible aspiration. And as to, you know, what will actually happen with the DFR, I think nobody knows. What we know is that, under both scenarios right now, that 1.9 NII that we're guiding for, for 2024, seems like a very credible target.

Thank you very much. This is all very clear. And again, congratulations for this sort of result.

The next question comes from the line of Savi Mehmet with JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

Good afternoon. Thanks very much for the presentation and also the very detailed guidance that you provided. I'll have three questions, please. Firstly, the performing loan targets. Clearly, they're expected to grow nicely, but if you look at the new loan generation figures that you outline, on slide 41. They don't look as optimistic. Can you please tell us your thought process here, particularly for 2024, as you expect some decline in new loans? And secondly, and following up on the previous comments on NII, if I look at the underlying assumptions, your deposit beta assumptions look quite conservative. And the main driver there seems to be the continued mix shift to term deposits, which is still quite a big jump that you expect for this year. But again, the mix shift So far, it seems to have stopped, and in fact, we've seen some decline even in term deposits this quarter. So, is this just a really conservative assumption in your mind, or do you actually see any signals for potential change in the behavior of your customers? And finally, if I may, on the capital guidance, the set one trajectory obviously looks much better, but still it's a bit conservative taking into account the earnings targets as well as baking in the guidance for dividends, particularly for 2025, that is. So maybe if you could talk about the underlying assumptions there, including the RWA trajectory, that would be very helpful. Thanks very much.

Hi, Sevim, and thank you for the question. Theo and Ardelis will be addressing your three points.

Theo? Right. Well, I mean, on the new loan generation, what we should really be focusing on is, I would say, the net credit expansion, right? It's a situation of, I would say, marginal change between 23 and 24. It's a very kind of similar view of things. What we have budgeted to be accelerated repayments and sustained, I would say, and a bit accelerated business learning growth on the back of RRF. um so overall this plan does assume kind of a of a static evolution and um on on the loan growth at the at the five percent rate um uh nothing major there um but uh but definitely on mortgages uh um uh something to to work on and think about how to open up this market and uh and and um I would say target this accelerated repayment that we're expecting on the back of sustained high euro board and vintage evolution. On your deposit beta mix, indeed, you're right. The TD book has been stable since June at 13.5 billion. The mix has been at that 23, 24% area for two quarters now. The assumption is that this will evolve to 34% by year end, again, on the back of sustained high interest rates. Yes, there's upsets to that number, as we said before, especially if we have, I would say, accelerated rate drops throughout the year. On CT1 trajectory, again, well spotted, this is a Basel IV incorporation, the first phase of kind of RWA burden. The number that has been assumed there is 1.6 billion burden on RWAs, which kind of contains the CT1 accretion between 24 and 25.

Great. That's very clear. Thank you, Theo.

The next question comes from the line of Dimitrios Alex with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Hi, thanks for taking my question. So in 2026 you're expecting a CET1 of about 15% which is 200 basis points above your CET1 target. So have you guys had any thoughts around inorganic loan opportunities where you purchase some of the loans that were previously classified as MPEs from services as a use of your excess capital similar to what some of your smaller peers have done? And then just secondly, on the cost guidance on slide 44, so the staff expenses outlined there would be the underlying expenses. Should we expect any more restructuring or any one-offs going forward that's not included in this guidance? Just looking at the KPIs on slide 38, it looks like there's a 2026 has about 60 million of one-offs. So any kind of guidance and help there would be greatly appreciated. Thank you.

Hi, Alex. Thanks for the questions. Let me address the first point on the inorganic actions that may result because of the excess capital that we will be creating. It is indeed what we think that this bank, you know, in the current environment that operates in an investment grade Greece and with the current macro assumption of GDP growth, we will be in a position to be best capitalized with a CET1 capital ratio, call it 13%, and a total capital of around 18%. So, hence our strategy for enhanced returns over 2025 and onwards. and also of the growth that we see in the book, which is where the excess of the returns will be directed. It is also true that over time we will be creating excess capital even above those distributions, and therefore we are going to be looking at inorganic opportunities, sticking to our investment criteria, and making sure that we are quite disciplined in all the investment decisions that we take. As to your questions about the potential look into re-performing loans, The truth of the matter is that we will have to wait a little bit so that those transactions are able to be actually executed given the definition of stage one, stage two loans and given the fact that we would not like to enter into transactions that we will be increasing our NP ratios. So we will be looking possibly at inorganic transactions but not necessarily at this early stage of the evolution of the re-performing loans in the area of re-performing loans.

And Alex, your question about cost one-offs, we've got it on page 38. 2024 is the year where we expect a small kind of one-off of about 60 to 70 million of extra restructuring costs. It is the last wave of re-profiling of staff numbers of the bank to achieve our cost targets.

Thank you very much for your time.

The next question comes from the line of Butkov Mikhail with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Good day. Thank you very much for the presentation and congratulations on solid results. I have three questions. net interest margin, you upgraded the guidance for the medium term. Is it entirely driven by the higher DFR assumptions or there are some other components such as hedges or something else which contributes to this upgrade? That's the first question. The second question is on fee income outlook. If we were to compare the new guidance and the one which you outlined last year, last year I think your outlook suggested for stable 0.8% net fee income as percentage of assets, while now your guidance implies gradual increase from 0.7 in 2024 to 0.9. So, I mean, what has changed? Were you more bullish in assumptions in the long term? And the third question is... So it looks like that the real estate prices in Greece have been increasing over the past year. Did you make the reassessment of the value of the property on the balance sheet and can that be an additional source of upside potentially if this were to be carried? Thank you.

Hi, Miko. So indeed, the NIM sustainability is the core part of the strategy of this plan. It is definitely based on the non-maturity deposit hedges that we've deployed. We're currently running a position of about 10 billion, which is contributing to the sustainability of the NII, especially on the positive carry transaction in 2026. as we see on page 40. It is not the only element. Growing the fixed income book and overall focusing on fixed asset returns is another part of it. So overall, our objective is, as we've said many times, is to sustain NIM above 2% in the mid to longer term, hence the guidance of 2.34 for 26%. On fees, indeed, it's a more detailed, I would say, look into what this balance sheet and this franchise can deliver. There's upside, I would say, across. Investing on real estate tied to the third part of your question is one element, stepping up rental income. Transaction fees, especially on the back of card transactions, is another one. And definitely asset management. And the growth of this year in AUM has given us, I would say, bigger confidence to what we can deliver for the future out of the franchise. Real estate prices, yes, great overall macro story. It's one of the reasons why we're investing and trying to increase and have been increasing rental income out of it. but I would say we're quite constrained in remarking bulk shipping within the allowances of IFRS. We would much prefer to actually materialize that either with profitable sales or with higher rental yields.

Okay, thank you. And on the hedges, what is the average length of the hedges which you have on the balance sheet currently?

The average duration is three years. We're running a dynamic approach where we're splitting durations between years one and five, and that calculates to an average three-year position.

Okay. Okay, thank you. Thank you so much for the answers. Much appreciated.

The next question comes from the line of Memisoglu Osman with Ambrosia Capital. Please go ahead.

Hello, many thanks for the presentation and your time. A couple on my side, please. First, just coming back to the time deposits, if you could share with us where it's been mixed these days. Is it materially different than the 23 days? we're seeing at the end of 2023. Then on slide 39, you've kindly provided sensitivities. If you could confirm, I'm guessing these are with the impact of the hedges, and maybe if you could give us where the Euroborne sensitivity would be without the hedges, that would be helpful. And finally, on dividends, could you give us any color on the timing? Essentially, one day would be paid. and also any more color on you mentioned necessary conditions to increase payout to 50% by 2025. I'm wondering if you could give us some color on these necessary conditions. Thank you.

Hi, Osman. So, indeed, TDMEX is static. It's around the 23% area. Nothing has been moving. The NMDs have been increasing, and they increased significantly. In Q4, the time deposit book nominally has actually dropped a little bit in Q4. So the mix, I would say, is pretty much what you're seeing now. Again, confirming a potential upside on the overall cost. Now, the sensitivity, yes. I assume you're asking for the risk-free, 1 to 25 to 30 million. Yes, that indeed is including NMDs. I mean, NMDs stabilize the whole story about 10 to 15 million. So, you know, without that, the number would probably be around 40.

And on dividends? Thank you for that. Hi, Osman. On dividends, as we said, it's evident from the plan that the bank is creating excess capital and this is going to be growing over time. We know that there are a number of conditions that need to be met so that this is going to be actually materializing. The necessary capital buffers is one, a sustainable profitability over time is the other, and the overall balance sheet health is the third one. And we are, you know, working on all those things. let's say, conditions so that we will be in a position to fulfill when the right time comes in order to be able to deliver on our promise. Thank you.

As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press star and one on your telephone. The next question comes from the line of Yoon Charmso with Lazard Asset Management. Please go ahead.

Hello, can you guys hear me? Yes, yes. Just two minor points, by the way. Congratulations on the great results. I'm looking at your Excel file, the MI tab. Is it correct to read that your non-maturing deposit hedging cost only was like 4 million in Q4 to deploy 10 billion hedging book?

Yes, indeed. That's correct. The depositions were booked in December and they actually had a negative carry of 4 million for Q4.

Okay, and you expect about further $100 million of hedging costs to incur in 2024?

Going forward, the cost of NMDs, first of all, we increased the position from what was at $7 billion. It is now, in the beginning of Q1, we took it up to $10 billion. And given the fixed rate that we booked, the negative carry is actually about $56 million a month.

What is currently your rates? Yeah, very good. And just I think somebody may have asked this already, but do you assume like 34% deposit, the term deposit mix even in like 2026? Is that your underlying assumption?

Yeah, it is a migration from 23% to 34% at 24 end, and then a sustained 34% mix throughout the rest of the plan, 25 and 26. Understood.

that's very clear thank you very much the next question is a follow-up from ismail eleni with axia ventures please go ahead um hi again and thanks for taking my question i have one on history and your sustainability kpis so that would be on slide 53 we see that your sustainable financing volumes stand at roughly 2.7 billion, while the green asset ratio under the taxonomy alignment for the turnover is at circa one. Could you give us some color on why this ranks so low and how do you think it's progressing as the guidance is set as TBD going forward? And how would you say you compare with your European peers?

Thanks. Thank you, Eleni. Thanks for the question. Hrishanti Berbadia, head of ESG, is going to address it.

Okay. Thank you, Eleni. Thank you for pointing out, actually. Yes, you're right. Sustainability financing is 2.7 billion at this point. This is overall the climate-friendly, let's say, part of our business. So it's mainly comprised renewables and sustainability-linked loans, as well as some home retrofit products, etc. Now, from this 2.7 billion, which is practically 10% of our performing loans, we will report in a few days in our financial statements the EU taxonomy aligned portfolio. This is the so-called green asset portfolio. We have pointed out that this will be a low single visit. We've seen that Europe overall is at low single visits at this point. The reason is that this is the first year of the reporting and the reporting refers to big corporates with more than 500 people and listed companies. So it's a smaller sample versus total. What's more, it's quite a stringent and strict context. for exposures to be included in the green asset ratio. So for us, in terms of business strategy, the sustainable financing is very important. To note that our long-term incentive plan has these KPIs, one of four important KPIs for variable compensation. So this is what we intend to follow and measure. Taxonomy, we will monitor. of course, but this will run in parallel. Sustainable financing is pretty important for us to book good business on our balance sheet and, of course, for climate to adapt to the new reality.

Great. Thank you for the clarity on that.

The next question comes from the line of Negro Alberto with Mediobanca. Please go ahead.

Yes, thanks for taking my questions. The first one is on deposit pollution. I can see that you are expecting 2 billion increase in deposits in 2026 versus 500 million and 1 billion 2024-2025. I was wondering which are the main drivers of this acceleration through the plan. And the second one is a clarification if you are expecting any additional one-off provisions in 2024 on top of the 80 basis point cost of risk. And finally, if the 1.6 billion higher risk with assets from Basel IV is the fully loaded impact or we should expect further impact the next year. Thank you.

Hi, Alberto. The deposit evolution is one of the main targets of the plan to sustain the liquidity profile. It is basically based also on accelerated loan expansion. We have seen that there is correlation in that. We also saw it this year. So, I would look at them actually together. So that's, I would say, the basis of that together with the overall liquidity and growth of the economy. On provisions, nothing major. Maybe there are, you know, small amounts here and there, part of the overall P&L guidance to complete the outstanding transactions, but nothing really to write home about. And on RWA, the impact that we talked about, the 1.6 billion, that's actually the phased impact, but I gotta say what we're putting out there today, we have not taken any, I would say, mitigating strategies of that, of Basel IV, so that will be more in play and we'll take, I would say, a closer look as to how we can mitigate Basel IV impact over time. I would say in the coming period. Thank you.

The next question is a follow-up from Memisoglu Osman with Ambrosia Capital. Please go ahead.

Yes, just on the cost side, I'm wondering if you're incorporating any deposit insurance benefits in 24, or have you already used them up in 23? Any color in OPEX Dynamics would be helpful. Thank you.

Yes, indeed. Even in 2023, we saw a big benefit, and that benefit is expected to continue. Overall, the cost, the admin cost is targeted to normalize at $300 million. And so against inflation, we're running initiatives to contain the numbers at those levels. Great. Thank you.

Our final question comes from the line of Golubi Ugliana with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Good afternoon. Congratulations on the strong results. One question, please, on the amortization of DTAs. I was wondering if your ambition to bring the DTAs proportion of CET1 to 50% by year-end 2025 unchanged, and any comments you can make regarding the conversations you're having with rating agencies on this topic, please.

Thank you. This is the drop that you see there, the below 50% aspiration for 26 is simply based on linear amortization of DTC as per the tax plan of the bank. And of course, on CD1 accretion, so the denominator grows and also the numerator drops. This is basically the containment of the DTC driver. Raiders. Different raiders have different views on BTC. Overall, the evolution is, by the ones that care more, is obviously viewed very positively. So I would say the C21 profile of the bank improvement overall makes everybody much more positive and friendly to the story.

Thank you.

Ladies and gentlemen, there are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the conference over to Mr. Megalou for any closing comments. Thank you.

Thank you all for participating in our full year 2023 results conference call and thank you for the questions. We look forward to discussing with you all, either physically or virtually, during our investor outreach program, which is commencing next week. And I'd like to wish you all a happy Valentine's Day. Thank you very much.

Ladies and gentlemen, the conference is now concluded and you may disconnect your telephones. Thank you for calling and have a good afternoon.