Piraeus Finl Hldgs Sa

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. I'm Konstantinos, your course call operator. Welcome and thank you for joining the Piraeus Financial Holdings conference call and live webcast to present and discuss the Piraeus First Quarter 2024 financial results. All participants will be in listen-only mode and the conference is being recorded. The presentation will be followed by a question and answer session. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, you may stick with an operator by pressing star and zero on your telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Piraeus Financial Holdings CEO, Mr. Christos Megalou. Mr. Megalou, you may now proceed.

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to today's conference call on our first quarter 2024 financial results. This is Christos Megalou, Chief Executive Officer, and I am joined today by our CFO, Theog Nardelis, Chris Berbati and Xenophon Damalas. The first quarter 2024 has been a milestone quarter for Pireus. as it marked the bank's return to full privatized status with a successful offering of 27% of our share capital held by the HFSF. The total size of the transaction amounted to EUR 1.35 billion, the largest bank privatization transaction in recent years in Greece, with total demand at approximately EUR 11 billion, far beyond any expectations. I would like to personally thank all the investors that participated in the offering process for the vote of confidence they casted on Pireus and the management of HFSF for its ongoing support to Pireus during the period of its restructuring and transformation. Diving now into our Q1 2024 results. The year started strongly for Paireus Bank, confirming good progress towards achieving or even exceeding our full year targets. In the first quarter, Paireus delivered another solid set of financial results, with resilient top line while our focus on cost containment and operating excellence remains slide 5 points out a summary of our q1 performance highlights in q1 we generated normalized earnings of 21 cents per share in line with full year guidance of 80 cents. We achieved a return on average tangible book of 16.5% against full year target of 14%. We delivered 10% recurring net revenue on year, accompanied by satisfactory customer margins, low deposit beta, and new record high in net fees. Operating expenses were reduced by 5% year on year at recurring level. with cost-to-core income ratio at best-in-class 29% on the back of our cost-efficiency efforts that offset inflationary headwinds. Q1 recorded our lowest-ever operating cost at €193 million, Importantly, cost of risk dropped to the historic low level of 17 basis points. Excluding NPE servicer fees and synthetic securitization costs, an outcome of the successful management of NPE inflows. Overall, asset quality dynamics remain solid with NPE ratio maintained at 3.5% and NPE coverage at 60%. We generated organic capital of circa 80 basis points in the quarter and reached a CET1 ratio of 13.7% and a total capital of 18.5%. As of Q1, we are stepping up the accrual of quarterly profits for 2024 plant shareholder distribution to 25%. Finally, in Q1, we increased our assets under management by 8% to €10 billion, already meeting our end 2024 target. Slide 6 summarizes all the financial KPIs that summarize our performance, indicating that in all lines we continue the solid 2023 trends. This delivery paves the way for increasing distribution out of 2024 profits, subject of course to supervisory approval. Slide 7 covers our earnings results in further detail. As you can see, improved profitability resulted in tangible book value per share reaching EUR 5.27, up 13% annually, enhancing further the value proposition to our shareholders. Slide 8. depicts the trajectory of the core P&L line so far, showcasing a number of records, namely the best quarterly performance for net fee income, operating expenses, and cost of risk for the quarter. slides 9 to 11 present the detailed information regarding net interest income intrinsics with net interest margin at 2.7%, loan pass-through stable at the level of 80%, and deposit beta setting at 14% in March 2024, against a guidance of 20% average deposit beta for the year, offering upside to our targets. which increased by 19% year-on-year and reached EUR 145 million in Q1. The group has been consistently increasing its net fee income over assets, now reaching the market-leading level of 76 basis points. Piraeus' widening out performance in this metric versus its Greek peers is the result of our focused strategy on expanding and diversifying our revenue sources and our footprint. Our pursuit of further operating efficiency bears fruit despite the inflationary headwinds. We have managed to reduce our operating expenses by 5% year on year in the first quarter, as shown on slide 14. The strong improvement in our operational efficiency kept cost-to-core income ratio at best-in-class 29%. Slide 15 provides a summary of our asset quality indicators. Our MPE ratio was maintained at 3.5% in the first quarter, with break-even new MPE formations. Meanwhile, Q1 organic cost of risk dropped to historical low 17 basis points, excluding NPE servicer fees and synthetic securitization costs. At the same time, NPE coverage remained at a prudent level of 60%. On slides 16 and 17, we present the dynamics of our performing loan book. Setting aside early year seasonality, the group's performing loan portfolio grew 6% annually, and there is a strong pipeline ahead. Our disbursements utilizing RRF and MyHome program, which combined, are at approximately EUR 500 million. Paereus has a superior liquidity profile, presented on slides 18 and 19. Our deposit base is granular, stable, and of high quality, enable the low deposit betas. Our liquidity ratios are all solid, as evidenced by the 241% liquidity coverage ratio and the 62% loan-to-deposit ratio, both at the top range of the European spectrum. Turning to our capital base on slide 20. A strong capital buildup of roughly 80 basis points in the first quarter drove CET1 ratio to 13.7% and total capital ratio to 18.5% in March 2024, while accounting for a 25% dividend payout. On slide 21, you can see how our new wealth and asset management strategy continues to produce strong results, with assets under management reaching €10 billion at the end of March 24, recording an 8% increase in Q1. Finally, on slide 22, there is a summary of our KPIs demonstrating that we are in line or outperforming in some areas our 2024 financial targets. Our strong Q1 results position Pireus well among the broader group of regional peers. To give you some context, on slides 25 to 35, we present the key metrics for Pireus versus domestic and regional peers. We benchmark ourselves in terms of return on average tangible book value. Credit expansion. Net interest margin. Net fee margin. cost to core income ratio, NPE ratio, cost of risk, and capital ratio. In all KPIs, we are now either at par or best in class While we are growing our already sound capital buffers at an accelerated pace, we expect to generate significant value for our shareholders. I'm very happy to announce that 2024 is expected to be the first year after 16 years that Paereus will pay a cash dividend to its shareholders amounting to about EUR 80 million for 2023 results. The relevant application for approval has been submitted to the ECB in mid-April, ahead of our General Shareholder Meeting in June. At the same time, our quarterly capital generation capacity allowed us to step up the accrual for 2024 planned shareholder distribution to 25% as of Q1. Closing, we are proud to be the only Greek company to be included for the fourth consecutive year in the Financial Times list of Europe's climate leaders in 2024, due to the 74% five-year reduction of our own carbon emissions. And with that, let's now open the floor to your questions.

Ladies and gentlemen, at this time we'll begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star followed by one on their telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, then you may press star and two. Those participating via webcast, please review related information in the Q&A live session tab should you wish to ask a question. For those participating in the questions and answer session, please use your handset when asking your question for better quality. Anyone has a question? We're starting one at this time. One moment for the first question, please. The first question comes from the line of the material Alex with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Hi, thanks very much for taking my question. So just on the interest income from your fixed income securities portfolio, so this seemed a little low this quarter with about the $900 million increase in size. Could you just confirm whether or not the balance grew mainly towards the end of the quarter and we feel likely to see a step up in the interest income from the next quarter from this? And finally, do you continue to expect a $100 million increase in 2024 versus 2023 from the fixed income securities portfolio? Thank you.

Hi, Alex. Yes, confirming both of your questions. Indeed, the buildup happened towards the end of the quarter, and the waterfall that you see in the Q4 result still holds. I think all of the blocks there in the guidance and the NIA result are confirmed, except I would say the deposit cost. That has come in actually a little bit better than what this guidance implies.

Thank you very much for your time.

The next question comes from the land of Ismail with Axial Ventures. Please go ahead.

Hello and congratulations for this set of results. I've got three questions from my end, if I may. Could you please give us some color on what will drive long growth going forward and what later plays with pricing in terms of spreads? Is there a quarterly lending volume, the one we saw in one queue, in line with the budget so far? And when should we expect the early repayment effect to start fading away? That's question one. And the second one is that I see that the seed one capital incorporates a $70 million cumulative deduction for NP calendar shortfall. It's related to the Greek state-guaranteed exposures. Could you let us know if there will be any further impact with regard to this one? And if yes, when will that be? And lastly, with regards to shareholders' rewards, could you comment on how the discussions with the regulator are progressing on the dividend? Thank you.

Hi, Eleni. Thank you very much for your questions. I'll cover your first question on loan growth. We had a quarter that we were expecting as per what happens seasonally every year, and a little bit better, I might say. We confirmed that because of our pipeline and the granular dialogue we have with the market, and all that we expect to happen within the year. We confirmed our guidance for the year for the next great expansion that we came forward and we were happy to see that on the yield and spread front, you know, the portfolio is performing as per the plan and we have not seen any headwinds. confirming our guidance for the year on top line and long growth.

Regarding the spread part of your question, Eleni, I would say everything is progressing pretty much as we were expecting. Quite a stable low yield after the entry rate at 6.55 p.e. So an overall spread pretty much in line with expectation. New production is coming in mildly lower between 20 and 30 base points below the current stock. So, which is all built into the guidance going forward. So, a very good entry run rate on spreads, well-defensed, I would say, in production. So, that part of the NII guidance is pretty much where we want it to be. You had a question on CP1 deductions regarding calendar source for the 70 million. Yes. So that has to do with calendar source for expectations expanding also to Greek state guarantees that are outside the MPE pool about 470 million. Given recovery expectations and given the fact that the recovery profile of such exposures is quite slow over the year, there will be some extra capital deductions over the coming three years. approximately an extra, I would say, 200 million, something between 200 and 230 million over the next three years and until the end of 2026. That will happen gradually over time. All of that is based into the plan and the capital guidance. It is not something over and above to what we have talked about. The above 14% guidance is clearly going to be met when we printed 13.6 in Q1. So I would say even a more conservative scenario is baked into the guidance, and that comes now to explain it.

And, Eleni, just to cover your dividend question, first of all, for the 23% We have applied to the ECB and the process is running smoothly. We expect to be ready to approve in the AGN during June. As far as the 2024 dividend accrual is concerned, obviously it all depends on the delivery of the 2024 plan. once the plan is executed as per our projection, everything will become easier. So bear with us on that front, but so far, so good.

Excellent. Thank you very much. And again, congratulations for this set of results. Thank you.

The next question is from the now serving Mehmet with JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

Good afternoon. Thanks very much for your time. I just had a couple follow-up questions. One on the loan growth, which was relatively weak in the first quarter, and you were citing seasonal prepayment from the corporate sector. Could you please tell us why you're seeing seasonal prepayments, just for some more color? And have you seen anything different in the second quarter so far. So I was just trying to understand what is basically leading to the seasonal prepayments in the first quarter of the year. And my second question was on NII and specifically the hedging position during the first quarter. Have you opened any new positions on top of what you had already, which was, if I'm not mistaken, about 10 billion euros in volume? And finally, just on other income, which was quite a big negative this quarter, and I think some of it is related to the offering and the placement. Could you please give us any color why it's so high? I mean, I think it's quite surprising that 43 million amount. What kind of costs are in there? Any additional color would be very helpful. Thanks very much.

Thank you, Mehmet, for the question. Just on the loan growth, first, as far as the quarter we are running now, the second quarter is concerned, we've seen repayments drying up and growth as per the plan. As we said, seasonal in the sense that it always happens like that. The second quarter usually is one of the strongest, the second and the fourth quarter. The first quarter is always weak. And it's due to the repayments, which is just for seasonal nature. A lot of the companies that, you know, have been accumulating balances towards the end of the year, they are repaying at the beginning of the year and then coming up again as we move forward. It's a pattern that we have seen year in, year out. But I confirm that on the second quarter, you know, we are starting with a strong footing. And as I said, we expect to confirm our guidance. We are confirming our guidance for the year as we certainly are.

Theo? Right. So, Mehmet, I think, right, second question, NMD hedges. I mean, we closed the year at $7 billion NMD position. We actually started the year building it up to $10 billion. We have basically run through the entire quarter at this position, and it's not expected to change. The $21 million is really the effect. of a fixed rate received 3.1, paying variable approximately 3.9. And there you have it. It's your 20 million cost for the quarter, pretty much aligned to what we also discussed in Q4. In the waterfall, we had talked about 0.1 billion. of the NII impact on the back of this position. This is happening pretty much as expected. As said, the guidance of 1.9 billion for NII for the year has been beaten in AQ1 on the back of primarily a much lower deposit cost than on the original plant. To your other income question, I mean, yeah, it was a 43 million advisor fee pool. It was a very large transaction. It was a full privatization of 27% stake. Total consideration over a bond, 1.3 billion. In terms of, you know, percentile of the actual consideration received, very much in line with market. And it's something that I think was also known from previous disclosures. So, it was clearly a one-off. Hence, you know, it's one of those one-offs that are really very hard one-offs, the 2.33 profit print.

it is affecting reality 280 print in terms of normalized returns okay that's very clear thank you very much for your comments the next question comes from line of book of michael with goldman sachs please go ahead um good day thank you very much for the presentation i have a couple of questions um one more on hedges please so um Is it correct that while excluding your hedges for this quarter, your NII was basically flat, meaning that on an underlying basis, you did not really see the impact of deposits repricing, putting pressure on NII? And what is the overall cost of hedges, if you can disclose? Did you incorporate for the full year, 2024, and what benefit from them? do you see in the year after? So that's the first question. The second question is on medium-term outlook for dividends. Do you expect any other criteria on the top of those which we already know? For example, the criteria related to DTCs to be as an important one when considering the plans to get to the 50% payout ratio and to what extent it will be yes, significant in decision-making by the ECB. And finally, so taking into account that macro situation in Greece is improving and credit quality of previously sold NPEs by banks may also improve, do you think there is any way that you may buy back some of those previously sold NPE exposures as an alternative use for the capitals? Thank you very much.

Hi, Michael. Yes, indeed. I mean, we have plateaued, you know, gross of the NMD costs. We have plateaued at around 540 million NIAs, 539, if I remember correctly, on the 21 million quarterly cost of NMDs to reach that 517 print. So no pressures from deposits. We had expected on average a 50 million additional interest expense from deposits in 24 versus the average of 23. Hence, again, reverting to the waterfall of the Q4 result. a 200 million headwind on the NII of 24 versus 23. This is not happening right now. On average, we're actually running, given Q1, 120 million tailwind versus guidance as we speak. Just to catch you before you jump to it, we're not updating the guidance right now. We want to see also interest rate evolution before we come back to you in Q2. The cost of hedges, as we discussed right now, it's approximately 80 basis points given the current Uribor position on a 10 billion exposure, 80 million a year, 20 million per quarter. When do we see the benefit? The moment Uribor crosses below 3.1%. it starts becoming beneficial. And now, you know, take your best guess as to when that will be. On our plan, we're assuming a neutral impact of these positions in 25 and a corresponding benefit in 26 versus the cost of 24. So it's a zero-sum game, but a stabilizer between the, I would say, big NII of 24 versus a more compressed NII in 26, given the expectation on the risk-free rate.

Regarding dividend, on the dividend, Michael, I just want to reiterate You know, it's early in the year. What is most important is to deliver the 24 plan as per the plan that we have in question and you know very well. This is the first quarter is an indication that, you know, we are on a very good track for delivery. And of course, Once the plan is executed, then the dialogue becomes much easier. Of course, there is an ongoing dialogue, as we have already said, with the regulators about the dividend, and we intend to deliver a SPR plan in order to facilitate this discussion.

I think, Michal, you had a final question on HAPS pre-performing exposures and the potentiality of deploying capital into buying those back. as we've said many times, not baked into our great expansion plans, not depending on that. It is a very large pool of paying customers that's being incubated in the services right now that absolutely need to find their way one way or another back into the banking system. Technically, it's a bit more difficult than believed. We need to have historical information of material payments from these borrowers. No characteristics in their restructuring that might threaten their potentiality of Stage 1 classification, so no step-outs or big bullets at the end of these exposures. All of these things that exist in large pool of the re-performings today can create a risk for potential re-classification in Stage 2 and Stage 3s. So, we absolutely want to do that. We're monitoring the market, we're looking at opportunities. Right now, we haven't seen any material transactions in play to allow us to invest effort in getting this done. Our number one priority is to defend the NPE ratio and not to pollute the book with questionable exposures that might be reclassified in the future. So, it is definitely opportunity for the future, but we think it needs some more work until it matures into something material.

All right. Thank you very much for your answers. Very helpful. Thank you.

The next question comes from . Please go ahead.

Thank you very much. I have a rather quick question. I noticed that in your Q4 presentation, you had your GDP growth assumptions for this and next year at 3%, but in this one, you have it at 2%. So how does this affect your cost of risk assumptions? Is your IFRS 9 model already updated for this? That's the first question, and the second one is, So underlying cost of risk this quarter was 17 basis points, and I think your budget was somewhere around 50 basis points underlying plus the fees. Do you see any positive risks to that cost of risk assumption for this year? Thank you.

Hi, Dihan. Yes, after the 2023 announcement of GDP and the starting of its effect in 2024, we updated the macro expectations pretty much in line, I would say, with the official sector consensus now. The IFRS models are updated. Let's also notice that in terms of real estate expectation and real estate prices, things are actually now improved versus previous situation. So it's not just GDP, it's the whole thing that counts. There was a very minor impact that's now baked into the numbers in terms of of adjustments, and as we've said many times, the credit expansion and the balance of expectation is not really affected by this, so nothing to write home about there. I mean, well spotted on the cost of risk. We have basically printed where we said even better than where we said we're going to be in two years from now. And we cannot deny that both in terms of, as we said on NII, but also in terms of cost of risk. There are upside risk whispers, let's just call it like that for now. I would say we want to see another quarter before we upgrade our guidance there, but things are looking good.

Thanks very much.

The next question comes from the line of Gabor Kemeny with Autonomous Research. Please go ahead.

Hi, everyone. Just a couple of quick questions from me. First one on the state-guaranteed loans that you put through some capital deductions we discussed already on the call. Is there a scenario where this could impact your P&L? or would this only come in the form of additional capital deductions? Another question was on your repossessed assets. I believe you had around €2 billion of foreclosed assets. What is your strategy on reducing this exposure? And when you talk to the regulators, including the ECB, What do you think is their view on this portfolio? Thank you.

Hi Gabor. So yeah, the state guarantee I would say will primarily impact capital through capital deductions. The P&L impact that is budgeted for the loan part I would say of these assets, the whatever 300 million that is already included in the loan book and most of it as MPEs is evolving as planned and that was the P&L effect that was already in the guidance. The extra piece is capital deductions that we discussed already for that 470 million that is in the other assets line. This is where the marginal impact comes from. And that is, as we said, already incorporated in the capital guidance. In your question about repossessed assets, yes. Repossessed assets in Piraeus Bank The strategy is obviously to accumulate that volume, and we're working already with two servicers that we have delegated management, and soon we'll be able to give you some extra news on extra collaborations we are putting in place to accelerate the sale of these assets. What we like very much is that these assets and the sales that are not happening are happening at the profit versus book. so they're not really any more a drug to the P&L. The focus is right now to operationally accelerate the sales, also leveraging on the new initiatives of the government for digitization of land registries, acceleration of the judicial process and legalization techniques. But we need to mature those assets and have them sold. That's one part of the strategy. I have to tell you that this book, although it has come from ex-collaterals that the bank has bought during its MPE decumulation strategy, has some very good pieces also there as well that we will be leveraging to increase also our... rental income going forward as an exception, I would say, rather than a rule, but still contributing substantially to the overall non-interest income line. Now, allow me not to disclose to you what we're discussing with our supervisors exactly, but let's just say that repossessed assets are obviously something to decumulate over time, and it is a strategy that's well articulated in our ICAP and overall business plan. And that improvement is being monitored by all related parties.

That's extremely helpful. Thank you. Can you give us a sense what sort of reduction has been factored into your 2026 business plan?

Well, right now we are expecting a net drop of about 150 million per annum simply from organic services-driven divestments. Very helpful. Thanks very much.

As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone. The next question comes from the line of Memistoglu's Manu with Ambrosia Capital. Please go ahead.

Hello, many thanks for your presentation and your time. A few quick ones on my side, please. The repricing of time deposits seem quite limited in Q1. Just curious how it is evolving, if at all, in April. That's my first one. second one fee income strength which i thought was quite impressive for a relatively slow loan quarter season in q1 i was wondering if there are any one-offs maybe in investment banking and if not is there a clear upside in this part of the piano as well and then the final one just to Small one, the one-offs in capital, maybe I missed it, the 0.2% in capital in your slide. What were they for, probably? Thank you.

Hi, Osman. Well, the TD repricing is happening pretty much at stock levels right now. maybe 10 basis points higher, but overall I would say we have plateaued on the overall deposit cost, both in terms of the TT cost as well as the mix, which basically drives the NII tailwind versus guidance we've spoken about before. Fee income, Indeed, it is, I would say, the most resilient result of stable fee income Q1 to Q4. Remember, of course, that the financing fees are driven by dispersals and not the net expansion. and these vessels were quite strong. But overall, even if you look at it, you know, line by line as we got it on page 44, all the lines are kind of stable, which talks about the resilience of the fee income line of the franchise as we are right now. The one on the capital is what we discussed about before, the deduction that's that happened on the back of state guarantees.

Perfect. Thank you.

Ladies and gentlemen, there are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the conference over to Mr. Meralou for any closing comments. Thank you.

Thank you all for participating in our first quarter 2024 results conference call. We look forward to discussing with you all physically or visually during our investor outreach program. And for all our Greek Orthodox participants, I would like to wish you all Happy Easter. Thank you very much.

Ladies and gentlemen, the conference is now concluded and you may disconnect your telephone. Thank you for calling. Have a good afternoon.