7/25/2023

speaker
Caroline
Conference Operator

Hello and welcome to BasicFix 2023 Half-Year Results Conference Call and Webcast. Please note that today's conference is being recorded and for the duration of the call, your lunch will be on listen only. However, you'll have the opportunity to ask questions at the end of the call. If you require assistance at any point, please press star zero and you'll be connected to an operator. I will now turn the call over to your host for today's conference, Mr. Richard Becker, Head of Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin now. Thank you.

speaker
Richard Becker
Head of Investor Relations

Thank you, Caroline, and good afternoon and welcome to our conference call during which we will discuss our results over the first half of 2023. With me today are René Moos, our CEO, and Hans van der Eyre, our CFO. This call is being broadcast live on our website and a recording of the call will be available shortly afterwards. As usual, I would like to point out that safe harbor applies. We will start with René, who will discuss the highlights and the operational developments, followed by a more detailed look at the financial results from Hans. After these prepared remarks, we will open the call for questions. The call will finish no later than 3 o'clock. And with that, René, I would like to hand over to you.

speaker
René Moos
CEO

Thank you, Richard. Welcome, everyone, and thank you for joining today's call. I'm pleased that we achieved a strong set of first half-year results in a challenging global microeconomic and geopolitical environment. During the first six months of this year, we continued our accelerated club opening program with a net addition of 103 clubs. We also witnessed further strong membership growth and our enlarged group of 888 mature clubs. is now at the targeted level of 3,300 membership on average per club. The combination of the strong membership growth that we achieved over the past 12 months and the benefits from the membership structure changes and pricing initiatives during the same period led to a record of 41% higher first half-year revenue of €500 million, with an 83% higher underlying EBITDA of €110 million. All in all, a good set of results. Let's go to the next slide on club openings. In the first half year, we grew our club network by 103 clubs to a total of 1,303. This means that we further extended our market leadership in Europe as a whole and in the five countries where we already had the leading position. In total, we opened 108 clubs and we closed five clubs. Most club openings were in France, where we now operate well over 700 clubs. If you look at it on a 12-month basis, we added 110 clubs to our network in France, a growth of 18%. After becoming market leader in Spain in 2022, we continued our accelerating club rollout with the addition of 22 clubs to reach 112 clubs by the end of the first half year. Compared to a year ago, we grew our network in Spain by 45 clubs, which is an increase of 67%. We continue to open clubs in new cities like Cordoba and Granada, create new clusters like in Balbao and Malaga with four clubs each, and strengthen existing clusters like in Valencia region, where we now operate 10 clubs. In the Netherlands and Belgium, we grew our network by four and three clubs respectively in the first half of the year. In our new market, Germany, we opened three clubs in the first half year to reach six clubs. In July, we opened another two more, lifting the total in Germany to eight clubs. We continue to see huge growth potential in Germany and currently have a pipeline with signed contracts of 65 clubs that we plan to open in the next 18 months. Let's move on to the next slide on membership growth. Our membership base grew by 8% or more than 250,000 members in the first six months of 2023. Compared to a year ago, we grew our member base by almost 700,000 or 23%. At the end of June, we had more than 3.6 million memberships. The seasonal pattern of membership development returned to normal after two years of COVID-19 and a recovery year. As usual, we had a strong first quarter as a result of the good intentions and a slower second quarter. The membership development in France was, however, somewhat impacted by a long period with protests, strikes, and civil unrest. As expected, we saw churn rates normalizing the past quarters to pre-COVID level of around 4% per month for the low rate after the lifting of COVID measures in 2022. We expected the churn rate to stay around 4% per month going forward. As we told you before, during 2022, we intensified our efforts to promote our premium membership. Ongoing efforts this first half year have more recently led to a further increase in the take-up rate of premium membership to more than 55%. By the end of the first half year, our 888 mature clubs had an average of 3,301 memberships. Together with a further gradual increase in the average revenue per member per month, this looks promising for our group profitability in the second half of the year. In a few minutes, Hans will give some further details on Mature Club's performance. Let's go to the next slide on our premium membership growth. Last year, we told you that we were intensifying our efforts to increase the higher-priced premium membership uptake, as we believe it is an effective tool to help increase the average revenue per membership per month. This, of course, to help mitigate rising club operating costs due to inflation and high energy costs in 2023. From last year's second quarter onwards, we have intensified our efforts to promote our premium membership, and since the second half of 2022, this has resulted in an uninterrupted premium membership uptake of over 50%. In the first half of 2023, we reintroduced the Comfort Membership at the price of €24.99 per four weeks in all countries except for Spain, and stopped offering the lower price Basic Membership. The new Comfort Membership gives access to all clubs in a country, while the Basic Membership gave only single club access. After the reintroduction of the Comfort membership, we witnessed a further increase in the premium uptake rate to more than 55%. If the trend continues, I believe that by year end, we will have a premium penetration rate of more than 45%. More premium memberships and our new pricing structure are expected to result in an average revenue per member per month of at least $23.50 for the full year. This compares to 2013 realized in the first six months of the year. That brings me to my last slide about our club rollout plans. This slide should look to you familiar. As you can see, we continue to have a full club opening pipeline. Year to date, we have already added a net of 107 clubs to our network. The next period with a large number of openings is in the second half of August and the beginning of September, when we expect that we will open around 70 clubs. For the full year, we will grow our network by at least 200 clubs compared to 2022. I'm excited about Germany, where we are now at eight clubs, but where we have a pipeline of 65 clubs that we plan to open in the next 18 months. This concludes my part of the presentation. I now hand it over to Hans for the financial review.

speaker
Hans van der Eyre
CFO

Thank you, René. Total revenue increased by 41% to €500 million, which is in line with our expectations and also explains why we are comfortable to expect full-year revenue of more than €1 billion. Growth in revenue was achieved thanks to the combination of a higher average number of memberships in the period and a higher average revenue per member per month of €23.13 compared to €22.22 in the same period last year. Of the three cost buckets that we distinguish within club operating costs, other club operating costs experienced the highest increase with 50%. Besides rising costs due to a growing club network, other club operating costs were, as expected, impacted by a strong increase in energy costs. On average, energy costs per club were double the amount of a year ago. In December 2022, we announced that considering the energy price developments during the year and the outlook for this year, we had signed a fixed unit price contract for 100% of our electricity consumption in France for this year. Combined with energy contracts already in place in other countries, this means that about 75% of our expected energy consumption this year has a fixed but considerably higher price. For 2023 as a whole, we give guidance for an average energy bill per club of around 55,000, compared to around 25,000 historically. I'm glad to say that recently we were able to sign more favorable energy contracts for France for next year and for 2025. Based on these much lower prices and taking into account the fixed prices for part of our consumption in other countries, we expect the average energy bill per club will drop from 55,000 per club this year to around 35,000 per club in 2024 and 2025. In total, we have fixed prices for around 70% of our consumption for these two years. Club personnel costs rose by 31%. Besides, again, higher costs due to our growing network, costs were also up due to the raises as from the 1st of January in all our markets except for Belgium. The raises were largely based on the prevailing inflation rates in our countries and somewhat extra elevated by the so-called Macron bonus that we pay to our personnel in France in June. We were able to mitigate the impact of higher salaries somewhat by increasing the amount of unstaffed hours in the majority of our Benelux clubs. Overall, average club wages are expected to increase in the highest single digits in 2023. Club rent costs rose 90% as a result of our growing club network, but also due to rent indexations. We continue to have a broad mix of contracts. In the Benelux, we have a lot of contracts with cab. While in France, this is not possible. Luckily, the French government influences the outcome of the indexation to the benefit of the tenant. Overall, Average club rents are expected to increase in the mid-single digits in 2023. Overhead expenses increased by 19% to $70 million. The increase reflects our growing organization, including our expansion into Germany, and higher rent and personnel costs due to inflation. Marketing expenses were around 6% of revenue. As you would expect from us, we continue to invest in our IT capabilities, in remote facility systems and in our very successful Basic Fit Member app, which is already used in two-thirds of all club visits. Compared to a year ago, we employ more people in areas such as legal, IT and sustainability. A new development has been the creation of an energy department. Our underlying EBITDA, which is EBITDA adjusted for exceptional items and minus invoice rent costs, increased by 83% to 110 million. As a percentage of revenue, our underlying EBITDA increased with 5 percentage points to 22%. Finance costs were up as a result of higher average level of bank debt at higher rates than in the previous year, and a 4.1 million non-cash negative swing in interest rate swaps. I would also like to point out that our finance costs include a 4.5 million non-cash interest accrual related to the convertible bond. Bottom line, under IFRS accounting, we recorded a small loss of 6 million. On an underlying basis, we went from a loss of 21 million last year to a profit of 2.4 million this year. And lastly, I'm happy to mention that on an IFRS basis, we recorded a profit in the second quarter of 2023. Let's go to the next slide on mature club development. As you all know, we consider our club mature if it's at least 24 months old at the start of the year. Because of the pandemic, we reported in 2022 only on the approximately 500 clubs that were mature before the start of the pandemic in March 2020. Because of our strong recovery since the lifting of all COVID restrictions during 2022, we returned to the original mature club reporting as from the first half of this year. That means that we will report on 888 mature clubs. These 888 mature clubs ended the first half with an average of 3,301 memberships. This is a strong achievement if you compare it with a smaller group of around 500 clubs that reported an average of 3,138 memberships at the end of June in 2022. At the end of this first half, our 880 clubs represent 68% of our total club base. In the first half of revenue, Our first half of 2023, the revenue of our mature clubs accounted for roughly 80% of group revenue. And let's go to the next slide on cash flow and capital expenditure. Our cash generation capabilities are almost back at the pre-COVID level. In the first half year, we were recording an operating cash conversion of 79%. which is very close to the 83% that we achieved in the first half of 2019, and well above the 46% of the first half of last year. The amount of CAPEX that we spent on a new club was 1.21 million. This amount is in line with our expectations. For the full year, we continue to expect average CAPEX of new clubs to be around 1.2 million. Please keep in mind that regardless of the initial CAPEX for a club, we only sign a lease contract for a new club when we expect to achieve a ROIC of at least 30%. Average maintenance CAPEX per club amounted to 90,000 compared to 30,000 last year. The somewhat lower spent this first half year is the result of a different phasing compared to last year. For the medium term, we expect maintenance CAPEX to remain around 55,000 per club per year. Other CAPEX amount to 6.9 million and is mainly related to ongoing investments in software and innovations. One such development is, of course, our successful Basic Fit Member app, which is already used in two-thirds of our club visits. Let's go to the next slide about our balance sheet. Working capital was minus $168 million at the end of the first half. As a percentage of the rolling 12-month revenue, working capital was 18%, which is comparable to the percentages we recorded in 2019 before the COVID period. Net debt, including the convertible bond, was $767 million at the end of the first half, compared to $694 million at the end of 2022. The increase reflects our club openings program, which we were not yet able to finance entirely from our strong cash generation in the first half of the year. Our net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio came in at 257 times. For the full year, I expect a ratio of less than 2.5 times. I am happy to mention that a relic from the COVID period, the government-backed facility, has been fully repaid. The amount concerned was $13.3 million. In the remainder of 2023, no further other debt repayments will be made. In June 2023, we announced that we successfully completed an amendment to the extent of our existing term and revolving facilities agreement. The new agreement consists of $250 million term loan and $400 million revolving facility, totaling $650 million. which is an increase of 50 million compared to the situation before. In addition, the agreement includes a new uncommitted revolving facility accordion of up to 150 million. The maturities of the facilities have been extended to June 27, with the option to request further extensions by one year in each of the coming two years to ultimately 2029. At the end of June, available liquidity Clarity amounted to 138 million, which allows us to continue our club growth program. And now for the final slide of our presentation, the full year outlook. For the full year, we expect to grow our club network by at least 200 clubs to 1,400, and we reiterate our expectation of revenue of at least 1 billion. We also foresee a substantially higher underlying EBITDA for the second half of 2023 as compared to the first half of 2023. This is the result of the increase in revenue per club, while the cost base remains relatively stable. Drivers of revenue and EBITDA growth will be further membership growth to at least 3.8 million per year end, in combination with a further gradual increase in the average revenue per member per month to at least 23.5 over the full year. Lastly, our 888 mature clubs are expected to achieve a ROIC of well over 30% this year. This concludes the presentation. Operator, please open the lines for questions.

speaker
Caroline
Conference Operator

If you would like to ask a question at this time, please press star 1 followed by the digit 1 on your telephone keypad. Please ensure that the mute function on your telephone is switched off to allow your signal to reach our equipment. If you find that your question has been answered, you may remove yourself from the queue by pressing star 2. Again, please press star 1 to ask questions. We will take the first question from line Hans Pluger from Capri Asia Works. The line is open now. Please go ahead.

speaker
Hans Pluger
Analyst at Capri Asia Works

Yes, good afternoon, gentlemen. It's already been a long day for me. Looking at your guidance for H2 for the EBITDA, you're saying a strong increase, substantial increase. What are the key drivers? Is that purely coming from the top line, or do you also see, let's say, some let's say, potential to have somewhat lower cost. You already indicated that for the energy cost, that's not the case, but maybe from some other costs, you could give maybe some feeling on that. Then on the cash flow, yeah, for this year, 200 club openings. And I understand also for next year, you, let's say, aim more, let's say, for the 200. So when do you expect to become cash flow positive? Could we already see that for next year? Or yeah, what could, let's say, determine that that picture and lastly on your full year yield guidance of at least 23.5 that looks quite conservative could you give maybe some building blocks on the different items there so premium membership and and the impact from recent price increases how do you come to the 23.5

speaker
Hans van der Eyre
CFO

Yeah, good afternoon, Hans. Good questions again from you. If you look at the guidance for the first half year, you have to understand that if you look at the first half year, the impact of the inflation, of the increase of the cost, was immediately there. So in January, we had the higher cost of salaries, the higher cost of energy, and also the higher rent. And we increased the prices to mitigate those effects for new members. So it's a gradual ingrowth of new members, a growing amount of new members who pay the higher price. So it's clear that all the costs will be more stable, so we don't expect more cost increases in the second half year. But the members, new members, a growing amount of members, and also a growing amount of members who pay higher yield, will make sure that we'll have a higher EBITDA in the second half year than we've seen in the first half year. Go back to your second question, cash flow positive. Well, it's a repeating question. We expect to be cash flow positive in 2024 and also already in the last quarter of 2023. Of course, that's always based on the amount of openings. If you stick to the 200 openings for 2024 and also for 2023, we expect to be cash flow positive in Q4 2023 and also for 2024.

speaker
Hans Pluger
Analyst at Capri Asia Works

I assume, sorry, maybe on that, I assume that for Q4 that purely to do with the fact that you have, let's say, your opening squeezed more into Q3. Yes. Yeah, okay, thanks. And then on the yield.

speaker
Hans van der Eyre
CFO

Yeah, the yield is a combination of the existing prices and in-growth of our new members for the new prices and the development of the premium membership. So it's, of course, it's... We can't calculate it very on a detailed basis, but if you look at what we see now in the increase of new members and also the increase of premium, we're very confident that we can get yield to at least 23.50 at the end of the year.

speaker
Hans Pluger
Analyst at Capri Asia Works

But is it logical to assume that of the increase, let's say, slightly more than the majority has to come from the price increase and the rest from the premium membership shift?

speaker
Hans van der Eyre
CFO

Yeah, it will be... Both the yield increase will be caused by higher premium, as we see now. So the premium, we gave guidance that the premium uptake would be 50%. Now it's more 55%. And also the shift from existing members to new members.

speaker
Hans Pluger
Analyst at Capri Asia Works

Okay, thanks.

speaker
Caroline
Conference Operator

Thank you. We will take the next question from line Chris Kippers from Peter Kemp. The line is open now. Please go ahead.

speaker
Chris Kippers
Analyst at Peter Kemp

Yes, good afternoon. Thank you, gentlemen, for the explanation already. I've got two questions from my side. Firstly, membership growth. We've seen a slowdown, Q1 versus Q2, so quite flattish in Q2. Just wondering what you see there in terms of trends. Is there something that we can still expect in Q3, or what's the reason for this change versus Q1? And secondly, my question is actually on the liquidity position, slightly short of $140 million. To what extent is this a picture that is a bit like, you know, you shorten your balance sheet probably at reporting dates. So does it give you a lot of margin enough to do everything what you want to do? Or could you shed some more light on that on shrinking the balance sheet on reporting date? Thank you.

speaker
René Moos
CEO

Well, I would take the first question. I think the membership growth in the second quarter was in line with what we expected. So we had a lot of joiners in Q1 2022. And in Q1 2022, we also gave one, two or three months for free at the start of that season. So what you see typically is that around 14 months later, you have a lot of leavers because the 12-month contract finished and then let's say more than two-thirds of the people joined stop and one-third who really liked to work out stay for two, three, four or five years. In that way, we have an average length of stay of 23 months. So we had a lot of leavers because we had a lot of joiners in Q1 2022. That's one part. And the second part is the situation in France, which was not very helpful. Okay.

speaker
Hans van der Eyre
CFO

Thank you. Yeah, on liquidity, we reported that we have available liquidity of 1.38%. Of course, we manage our balance sheet, but not in that way that we have more liquidity at reporting dates. And I think the 138, also with the uncommitted credit line we still have available, the 150 million accordion, we have ample liquidity to fund our growth expectations. And as I said, as from 24, we expect to be cash flow positive. And then we'll be able to fund our growth with our own cash that we operate. And if you look at the slide that we presented, you already see that we have a cash operating outcome from 79%. That's almost 83% that we had pre-COVID. So we can really look at the cash conversion that we have and use that cash conversion to grow. So we don't see any risk there in liquidity. 138 available liquidity. is more than enough to fund our growth program for the coming year.

speaker
Thor Fangman
Analyst at Barenburg

Okay, thank you.

speaker
Caroline
Conference Operator

Thank you. We will take the next question from line Mark from ING. The line is open now. Please go ahead.

speaker
Mark
Analyst at ING

Yeah, good afternoon, Hans and Renee, Richard, of course. A couple of questions. Maybe to start with Hans, on the... on your net debt to start with. You ended up a bit higher, say $30 million higher than last year at the end of 2022. You expect to be cash flow positive in Q4, and obviously you will have a significantly higher F&A in the second half. Given the take that the number of openings is similar to Q1, should we then expect that your net debt will move down quite significantly, maybe towards the level that we've seen at the end of 2022? Is that a correct conclusion?

speaker
Hans van der Eyre
CFO

Yeah, that's a great conclusion. If we will be cash flow positive, of course, it depends on the timing of the opening. As you know, Mark, sometimes we can't influence the date that we open the club because we are depending on French, especially in France, that's an issue, on French government to do the inspection. But if everything goes like we planned, then we'll have less openings in Q4 and then our net debt should go down because then we're cash flow positive, so our net debt should go down. Yeah, clear, clear.

speaker
Mark
Analyst at ING

And then maybe, again, on liquidity, Chris also asked about it. Just so I understand it correctly, currently, you're at 138, at least at the end of June. That's only slightly lower than at the end of last year. But to my understanding, did you include some new liquidity facilities in there, and to be Is the 50 million of extended credit lines in there now or is there still a part that's not included in your liquidity numbers because they're not yet, how do you call it, conditional? Let's put it that way.

speaker
Hans van der Eyre
CFO

The 50 million extra credit line that we got in the last month is included in that 138 million available liquidity.

speaker
Mark
Analyst at ING

Do you still have some standby?

speaker
Hans van der Eyre
CFO

150 million is the accordion, that's uncommitted, and that's a standby facility. But that's uncommitted. So we only include the committed facility, and that's extra the 50 million that we got extra. Of course, it's the timing, right? It's June the 30th when we pay the clubs that are open, more clubs open, then we pay more. So then it's all based on the club opening program that we see in the first month.

speaker
Mark
Analyst at ING

But if needed, you can draw the other 159 as well. That's why you're so comfortable.

speaker
Hans van der Eyre
CFO

To be clear, it's there, but it's uncommitted, so we have to get approval from the banks, but they're very cooperative, so we don't see any problem there.

speaker
Mark
Analyst at ING

Given that you have quite some liquidity available and you extended it, would you also consider them to open more gyms next year than the 200 you currently foresee?

speaker
Hans van der Eyre
CFO

Yeah, there's someone sitting next to me nodding very... Yes, Mark. We still have a difficult situation in Europe, as you know. The geopolitical situation is not that clear yet. If everything normalizes again, then we can look at our opening program again. But for this year and also for coming years, we are... looking now at the 200 club openings. But if everything normalizes and everything goes, the economic situation normalizes and also the geopolitical situation normalizes, we can look at that.

speaker
Mark
Analyst at ING

Maybe in addition to that, is there also some M&A possible? What is the market situation there? Because I understood previously they were all asking for two crazy prices. Is the situation in Spain any different now, or is the situation in Germany, because those are the office markets, of course? Did anything change there that we might see M&A returning?

speaker
René Moos
CEO

No, I think when you're talking about M&A, that will not directly happen in, let's say, the Benelux, but if you look at M&A possibilities in, for example, Spain or Germany, that would make sense. We are focusing still on opening new clubs since that is the more easy and positive way to go. But if something comes to market and it is interesting, we will definitely focus on it and we will take the opportunity if it's there.

speaker
Mark
Analyst at ING

And then on the energy cost, did I hear correctly that currently 70% of your energy costs are fixed? Did I hear that correctly or is it 100% now?

speaker
Hans van der Eyre
CFO

No, 70%. In France, it's 100% fixed for the biggest market, but for the Benelux and also in Spain, it's partly fixed. So for the total group, it's 70%, 70% fixed.

speaker
René Moos
CEO

For 24 and 25, for two years? Yes.

speaker
Mark
Analyst at ING

And yet, given that 30% is still floating, are you not afraid that you might push it quite a specific high as long term out? Isn't there a risk that you might miss it?

speaker
Hans van der Eyre
CFO

As I said, we have a new energy department in place and we're constantly monitoring the prices. So we're constantly monitoring that. And if we think it's a bigger risk, in my opinion, we should fix them for 100%. That's my preference. But we definitely look at all the prices and development of the prices. At this moment, we still have low prices and what the market says is it's still expected to be low prices for the coming months.

speaker
Mark
Analyst at ING

But we definitely... It could be that you fixed them also in the second half somewhere. Yes, it's possible. That's correct. Okay. And then one on the membership development. Obviously Q2 was a bit lower than maybe expected. for the reasons you mentioned. Also, for the second half of the year, you're quite cautious. I know it's at least, but why are you so cautious in the 3.8? Because it basically suggests that 200K less than what the market was expecting and what you would normally expect also from pre-COVID in growth trends. What is causing your caution there? Is it because the churn is a bit volatile or I'm just not sure about the timing of the clip-opening, because you were quite specific that it is second half of August to September. So what's causing that?

speaker
René Moos
CEO

I think it is more or less in line with what we expected at the beginning of this year. The big difference is France, where it was a bit rough period, where there was a lot of instability there for a while. Of course, if everything turns to normal there, that would be helpful for us, since we have more than 50% of our clubs in France. But I think with the 3.8 million and the mature clubs on the 3,300, we're pretty much in line with what we expected when we started the year. So for us, it was not a big surprise that it was lower. thing is with the premium there are also a lot of people buying uh who used to maybe have two membership in one family taking now the premium membership um so that is also with the percentage going up you also see some people living on the same address going back to that premium membership so it's a combination of things is it given by the price increase of the comfort that the

speaker
Mark
Analyst at ING

differences are small that people say, well, I just take a premium.

speaker
René Moos
CEO

Yeah, not really for the existing members because we didn't change their price yet. So they're still paying $19.99. But I would say with the 3.8 million members and the 1,400 clubs, I think it is a good number for amateur and immature clubs.

speaker
Mark
Analyst at ING

Okay. All right. Well... Those are my questions. Maybe I have a few follow-ups, but thanks so far.

speaker
Hans van der Eyre
CFO

Thank you, Mark. Have a nice holiday. We still need another week.

speaker
Caroline
Conference Operator

Thank you. We will take the next question from line 8, Jan, from Hogan Stanley. The line is open now. Please go ahead.

speaker
Jan
Analyst at Hogan Stanley

Good afternoon. My first question was on Germany. You've obviously got... a reasonable pipeline now to open over the next 18 months, and you said you've seen trends in that market. I wonder if you could just give us a bit of color on what exactly you have seen, and perhaps you could talk about what you found in the differences in the German market versus your other markets that gives you that conviction that it's looking positive for you.

speaker
René Moos
CEO

Yeah, well, so the first six months we have six clubs open, and we opened two then in the last two weeks. So we have now eight clubs in Germany open. If you look at the German market, it is a very good market for us. There's more than 80 million people living there. There's another really big market leader in Germany. The biggest chain is a franchise chamber charging more than what we are charging. And the other one is of course McFit, but they have like 180 clubs, which is on more than 80 million people, not really a lot. Of course, the main driver for being successful in any country is having a lot of clubs there because the main driver is having a club close to where you live or where you work. So we think with the fitness penetration at this moment of 12%, 13% in Germany, which is a very strong economy, that percentage could easily go up to the 17%, 18% what we see in the Netherlands. So if you calculate that on 80 million inhabitants, then you have a huge upside and potential to open clubs. I personally have been in Germany already with the Health City brand for 15 years. The members there are more sticky, so the length of stay is much longer than in other European countries. That is very important. If you look at our competitors, they're growing extremely slow. If you look to their growth in the last five years, well, we will do more in one year. And we have had a lot of questions about Germany, why it's going so slow. But if you compare it to the questions we had about Spain, we had the same questions. We also, when we started in Spain, we also had questions constantly, why are you going so slow? And if we go back to when we got listed, also in France, it took three years before we had 20 clubs. So we also had then the question constantly, why are you going so slow and is it really a good market? It is a good market. We've seen that it is a good market and we are convinced that Germany is at least as good as France is. So we are very optimistic. We see a great opportunity for us in Germany. Main reason, good economy, people used to direct debit, sticky members, not very aggressive competitors, grown really slow. So a lot of possibilities for us. We think we can really drive the fitness penetration up in Germany.

speaker
Jan
Analyst at Hogan Stanley

Very useful, thank you. My second one was on founder memberships. You're using them more or perhaps you're using them more openly. Can you just talk about the rationale for why you're using them in that way and what you're sort of seeing from them?

speaker
René Moos
CEO

Yeah, well, we're constantly trying new things to get the in-growth quicker. The thing is, if you open a new club and you start with only, let's say, 100 members, the members who joined think, well, I maybe joined the wrong location because I'm one of the few ones who entered here. It's like a restaurant. If you go into a restaurant where a lot of people are, you typically think, okay, that must be the good restaurant to join. So we prefer to start with more customers. So we are really pushing and trying hard to get more members in in the first month when we open. So what we typically do is in the past give two or three months if you sign up pre-opening, but we stepped more or less away from that. In the last six months, you didn't see any of our advertising anymore with two months for free or something like that. We now give discounts, say it's $9.99 from the start, something like that. So we continue to keep trying new things. So this founding membership is something we've done already, by the way, 10 years ago, so it's not completely new. But we are pushing it hard now on quite some clubs. It is working. It is not a huge or great success, but it's definitely... better for us than what we see in giving two or three months away. So we will, for now, continue with this founding membership and trying to optimize it, make it better, get it better, and get that starting member base up in the first month.

speaker
Jan
Analyst at Hogan Stanley

Thank you. My third question was on churn. You said that churn's now back to 4% in pre-COVID levels. You expect it to stay there. You've got some various moving parts. You've obviously put through a price rise. You've referenced the macroeconomic situation. You said there's volatility in France. So I guess what gives you the conviction or can you help us get conviction that that churn couldn't perhaps get worse over the coming months? Are you seeing any signs that it's starting to abate or what is it that you're looking for? What is it that gives you confidence it will stay at that level?

speaker
René Moos
CEO

Well, just by looking at what happened in the last eight years and what is happening currently, of course, the old member base are paying a lot less. So for them, it's interesting to stay on their old paying system. So we do see that the member base... So what I said before is that if you have a lot of joiners, let's say in February 2022, you will have also a lot of leavers 14 months later. Because two-thirds of the people who join stop after the first 12 months. But that other group is really staying and staying for three, four, five, six, seven years. So that's why also the main reason why our mature clubs are more successful than new clubs is is that the new clubs every time has those two-thirds leaving, while the mature clubs who are there already for 10 years or 15 years have a big group of old members. And people are typically joining, stopping after two, three, or four years, and then waiting for two, three years, and then joining again. So if you have an old member base, that is really helpful because they keep coming back because they know the club, they know where the door is, they know the equipment, they know some people there. So all the clubs are always more successful than newer clubs because newer clubs have a bigger group of turning. So yes, we are comfortable that it will be around 4%. It could be 3.5, could be 4.5 some months, but around this 4.5% because what we have been seeing for years before COVID and we see it now again, even though we have had huge growth in members in the last 18 months.

speaker
Hans van der Eyre
CFO

Actually, we were very happy with the churn just being 4% in the second quarter. As Rene mentioned, we had a lot of joiners in the first and second quarter of last year. Typically, then you see most leavers after 12 months. If you look at the churn numbers that we had in the second quarter, they were actually very good. What was helpful was that existing members kept on paying the old prices and new members, only the price increases were done for new members. canceling your membership doesn't make sense if you pay a low membership fee. So the new price doesn't have any impact on the churn and it has a positive impact on controlling the churn. So we are very comfortable with the 4% churn.

speaker
Jan
Analyst at Hogan Stanley

Okay, thank you. I've got two more quick ones if that's possible. So one just on the RCF and the sort of refi. When you refinanced, you sort of extended and amended, but you essentially kept the debt structure very similar to previously with a sort of drawn RCF. Is there any reason why you kept it in that way rather than wrapping that into a term loan and moving back to an undrawn RCF or moving the components around? Is there anything you're signaling by having a drawn RCF? Is it because you expect to pay it down as you become self-funding, or is it because you expect to raise debt elsewhere? Is there any rhyme or reason to it, or is it just that it was similar to what you had and so it was easier to do?

speaker
Hans van der Eyre
CFO

Yeah, it was easier to do, so it was similar to what we had. And doing an amended extent is obviously more easy if you continue with the same structure. And, of course, it's also important that we're flexible. So if you have a revolving facility and if you are cash flow positive, then we don't have to pay interest on the amount that we have. So it's the flexibility that gives us enough reason to stay with the same structure as we had before. So we are very happy with the evolving facility. We're also very happy with the cooperation of all our banks and the support they gave us. So yeah, we are very happy that we could amend and extend the existing facility. We didn't see any reason to change that.

speaker
Jan
Analyst at Hogan Stanley

Understood. And a final one, if I may. You've got a capital market stay later this year. Why are you holding it? What are you hoping to be able to talk about in more detail?

speaker
René Moos
CEO

Yeah, so we have typical things. We have a few things that we have been working on that we want to explain to analysts and investors. So there will be a few new topics that we have been focusing on for a while that we want to explain. And just to... Because we have a certain... important growth periods of September, October and January, February, of course, are the growth periods. But we want to also explain, because before COVID started, we said we would do between 200 and 300 clubs a year. Now we're more focusing to the 200 because we think having enough cash in this period is important. But yeah, we want to explain how we look at the situation end of this year and explain also the new things we have been working on.

speaker
Jan
Analyst at Hogan Stanley

Great. Thank you.

speaker
Caroline
Conference Operator

Thank you. We will take the next question from line Thor Fangman from Barenburg. The line is open now. Please go ahead.

speaker
Thor Fangman
Analyst at Barenburg

Hello. Hi. I hope you can hear me. Thank you for the a very quick question from my side just looking at consensus on underlying ebta we're an average right now on 302 million for the full year do you just still feel comfortable with this consensus or do you have any comment on this yeah the comment is the comment is that we have that we don't want to give guidance on the mbda so what we said we want to give guidance on the on the revenue and amount of clubs that we want to open

speaker
Hans van der Eyre
CFO

and that our mature clubs will continue to perform above the 30% ROIC that we set. So that's the only guidance we want to give. So based on those numbers, the analysts can do their work and come with their estimation of the ABDA, but we don't want to give any guidance on that. That's very fair. Thank you. Have a great day. Thank you very much, Dore.

speaker
Caroline
Conference Operator

We have reached the end of today's conference. I would like to hand it back over to your host, Mr. Richard Pecker, for closing remarks. Please go ahead, sir.

speaker
Richard Becker
Head of Investor Relations

Thank you, Caroline, and thank you, everyone, for joining us today with our conference call. If there are any follow-up questions, please don't hesitate to give John David or me a call. We're happy to continue the discussion. So with that, this ends the call, and I would like to wish you a very happy day.

speaker
Hans van der Eyre
CFO

Thank you very much.

speaker
René Moos
CEO

Thank you very much.

speaker
Caroline
Conference Operator

Thank you for joining today's conference.

Disclaimer

This conference call transcript was computer generated and almost certianly contains errors. This transcript is provided for information purposes only.EarningsCall, LLC makes no representation about the accuracy of the aforementioned transcript, and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the information provided by the transcript.

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