4/29/2025

speaker
Hilly
Conference Call Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, please hold the line. The conference will begin shortly. Thank you. Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Carlsberg Q1 2025 Trading Statement Conference Call. I am Hilly, the Coral Call Operator. I would like to remind you that all the participants will be in listen-only mode and the conference is being recorded. The presentation will be followed by a Q&A session. You can register for questions at any time by pressing star and one on your telephone. For operator assistance, please press star and zero. The conference must not be recorded for publication or broadcast. At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to Jakob Arup, our Nende Andersen CEO. Please go ahead.

speaker
Jakob Andersen
CEO

Thank you so much, operator, and good morning, everyone, and welcome to Carlsberg's Q1 2025 conference call. My name is Jakob Andersen, and I have with me our CFO, Ulrike Fern, and Vice President, Investor Relations, Peter Kontrup. Now, let me begin by summarizing some of the key headlines for the quarter. First of all, we delivered significant volume and revenue growth due to the BRITVIC acquisition. Key markets like China, India, and the U.K. delivered a solid start to the year, while total organic development was soft, impacted by the continued soft consumer sentiment, the loss of San Miguel in the U.K., and the late Easter. We saw good growth for our key strategic growth drivers, including premium beer and alcohol-free brews. I also have to say we're very pleased with the British business, and integration is progressing as planned. Finally, as you will have seen, we, of course, maintain the earnings guidance for the year. I'm going to provide some of the key group headlines for the quarter and some color on BRITREC, and then Ulrike is going to take you through the regions and through the outlook. And with that, let's turn to slide number three. The total volumes grew by 14.5%. That's, of course, significantly impacted by acquisitions, which amounted to plus 16.8%. Organic volume development was minus 2.3%. If we exclude the Los and Miguel volumes, then the organic volume development was minus 1.1%. Revenue per hectolitre was positive thanks to price increases and a positive brand mix, which were partly offset by country and channel mix. Reported revenue grew by 17.4% to 20.1 billion kroners, with acquisitions amounting to 18.4%. The organic development was minus 1.5%, while if we exclude San Miguel, organic revenue was flat year on year. There was a small positive impact from currencies of 0.5%. Please turn to slide four and an update on our growth categories and international brands. Adjusted for the impact of San Miguel in the UK, our premium beer portfolio grew by 4%. That was supported by mid-single-digit growth in all three regions. We were very pleased to see the very strong growth for our premium brands in the UK, with particularly very impressive growth for Poretti. Other markets to call out are Poland with mid-teens growth, China, where mid-single-digit growth was driven by both our local and international premium brands, and India, where our premium volume growth was close to 20%. Looking at the international beer portfolio, total Carlsberg volumes were up by 1%. We saw very good growth for the premium cow stock volumes in markets such as China, India, Laos, and Ukraine. The mainstream volumes were impacted by the challenging consumer environment in markets such as Malaysia, where volumes were also impacted by the earlier Ramadan compared to 2024. Looking at Tuborg, Tuborg continued to deliver commendable growth. Here, I would like to call on markets such as India, China, Italy, Ukraine, and France. Despite growing in many markets, including Poland, Switzerland, China, Ukraine, and Croatia, total 1664 long volumes declined by 2%. Volumes were impacted by headwinds in the export and license division, specifically South Korea, where the international premium segment is under pressure. Brooklyn achieved 10% growth. This was in particular thanks to very good performance in the U.K. and in France. Our alcohol-free brews grew strongly by 15%, seeing similar growth levels in Western Europe and Central and Eastern Europe. We saw particularly strong growth for Toutel in France, for the broad AFB portfolio in Poland, Quas in Ukraine, and strong traction in export markets in the Middle East. The solid 6% growth in Beyond Beer was mainly driven by very strong growth for Garage and for Wind, Flower, Snow, Moon in China. Our soft drinks volumes grew in Western Europe and CE&I, and we were pleased to see continued good progress for Pepsi Max in all markets where we have that brand. Growth in Western Europe and CE&I was, however, offset by lower volumes in Laos and Cambodia. And now slide five, a few words on the recent announcement of our exciting new partnership with UEFA. Carlsberg has a long-standing history of successful football partnerships, both internationally and locally in our markets. The more than 30-year partnership with Liverpool is the most significant of those partnerships, being a partnership that we've been able to successfully leverage across multiple markets, not least the way we activate in Asia. And on that note, of course, a massive congratulations to our close partners at Liverpool with winning the Premier League this weekend. Well-deserved. Our comprehensive new partnership with UEFA is a great complement to our portfolio of football partnerships, and it reinforces our commitment to this great sport and the millions of fans around the world. Contrary to Carlsberg's previous UEFA sponsorship, which expired in 2016, the new partnership is significantly broader. It includes a number of European tournaments for both men and women, and it gives us exclusivity in the beer and cider category. Although Carlsberg is the leading brand We are also able to activate the partnership with our local beer and cider brands, which is very important for us. The men and women European football tournaments that you can see on the slide, including Nations League, the European qualifiers for Euro and World Cup, and obviously the Euro itself, means that the new partnership is what we can call an always-on platform, engaging a large and a diverse audience during the year. Therefore, we expect the partnership to further strengthen our brands, ensuring an attractive return on investment. Before we go into the regional performance, let me comment on BRITVIC on slide number six. The BRITVIC deal was completed on the 16th of January, and the new leadership team was appointed immediately after. There has not been any major surprises after having owned the business for three and a half months. The integration and synergy realization are progressing as planned, and we confirmed the previously announced 100 million pounds of synergies, 83 million pounds of integration costs, and the facing of both benefits and costs. Let me add a bit of color on the integration and on the business performance in Q1. First of all, the volume and revenue contribution from the 16th of January, when the deal closed, that amounted to 4.7 million hectoliters and 3 billion Danish kroners, respectively. In the UK, the integration is progressing rapidly. The consultation process is coming to an end as we speak. The pipeline of synergies related to people, direct and indirect procurement, and discretionary spend has been identified and confirmed. We've seen continued good performance, a high engagement among employees, and no business interruption. Nevertheless, volumes and revenue were slightly down in the UK, but that's due to tough comps, as it was a very strong Q1 last year with a high level of activations in connection with the Pepsi rebranding and also the earlier Easter compared with Q1 this year. We saw good growth of the Pepsi portfolio driven by Pepsi Max and for own brands such as Tango and Jimmy's, while Robinson's and Lipton declined. Off-trade volumes grew slightly while on-trade volumes declined. In line with the business case, we're increasing commercial investments in the UK with increased marketing support of the Pepsi portfolio and additional resources in the sales organization. The Irish business delivered solid performance in Q1. The integration and restructuring in Ireland are limited, as it's a well-performing business and we do not have our own beer business there. We're increasing commercial investments also in Ireland to accelerate the growth of the Pepsi portfolio. In France, we exited an unprofitable private label contract and therefore volumes declined. The integration and restructuring of the French business are in the early stages. And then finally on Brazil, we're still evaluating the strategic options for the Brazilian business and we'll come back with a decision later this year. In Q1, energy drinks saw good growth but total volumes declined due to a weak off-trade, lower concentrate volumes, and exit from certain flavor types. We're integrating the international business into different car-spec units depending on customer locations. We exited low-margin businesses and made changes to the distributor model to align it with our business model, and consequently, volumes declined in the international business. Based on all this, the organic volume development in Q1 for full bread-baked business was minus 4.1%, but as you can hear, very much impacted by deliberate decisions from our side in terms of improving the business and right-sizing it for the future. With this, I will hand over to Ulrike, who will take you through the regions and the outlook.

speaker
Ulrike Fern
CFO

Thank you, Jakob, and good morning, everyone. So please turn to slide seven and Western Europe. First, a few initial comments before getting into the details. And firstly, as you know, Q1 is off-season and therefore the smallest quarter in Western Europe. accounting for around 20% of annual volumes. And consequently, one should be cautious predicting any change in trends based on developments in Q1. Secondly, the numbers are heavily impacted by the loss of San Miguel in the UK from the 1st of January. On a full year basis, San Miguel accounted for approximately 4% of regional volumes. And then thirdly, the sell-in to Easter was in April this year, while it was in Q1 last year. Reported revenue for Western Europe grew by 31% due to the Britvic acquisition, and while the organic development was minus 2.9% due to the loss of San Miguel. Excluding San Miguel, volumes grew organically by 0.8%. Organic revenue per hectolitre was flat, and we actually saw growth in most markets, supported by price increases and a positive category mix, while channel mix was negative due to soft on-trade channels. However, at a regional level, revenue per hectolitre growth in markets was countered by negative country mix due to strong growth in Poland and last year's inclusion of excise duties in net revenue in the UK following the termination of the Cronenberg 1664 Licensee Agreement. In the UK, our beer business, excluding San Miguel, saw low single-digit volume growth in a challenging market. We gained market share in both the on and the off trade, driven by Carlsberg Danish Pilsner, 1664, Peretti and Hobgoblin, as well as new listings in existing on-trade customers and new on-trade custom wins. In the Nordics, volumes were impacted by the later Easter, but nevertheless it ended flat compared to Q1 last year. Premium beer, carbonated soft drinks, energy drinks and water grew, while mainstream core beer declined. In France, our volumes remained impacted by the pricing taken last year and therefore declined low single digits in a flat market. The decline was driven by the lower mainstream Kronenberg brand, while 1664, Tourtel and Kraft brands delivered volume growth, and the positive brand mix led to an improved revenue per hectolitre. We have finalised all customer negotiations, and the updated prices and promos will be in the market from late April. The Swiss beer market remained very soft and volatile and declined by an estimated mid-single digits. We improved our market share slightly, seeing growth for the local premium brand Valaisan and for 1664 Blanc. The soft drinks market also declined, albeit less than the beer market. We were very satisfied to see good growth for the Pepsi franchise, driven by Pepsi Max. The Polish business has had a very strong start for the year, with double-digit volume growth driven by market share gains and easy comps due to soft starts last year. Revenue per hectare leader developed very favorably on the back of a positive category and brand mix. And now let's go to slide eight and Asia, where we reported revenue growth by 1.2%, including a positive FX impact from China and Malaysia. The organic revenue development was minus 0.4%, as the revenue per hectolitre improvement was 2%, and that was offset by an organic volume decline of 2.1%. The improvement in revenue per hectolitre was the result of a positive category mix and price increases. In a slightly declining Chinese market, our business delivered a solid start to the year with 2% volume growth on the back of normal inventory levels at the beginning of the year. The volume growth was driven by our big cities and the premium portfolio, which grew more than 5%, with most premium brands delivering growth in the quarter. The Carlsberg brand did particularly well, delivering mid-teens volume growth. Revenue per hectolitre was flat, mainly due to the negative channel mix, as on trade, especially the nightlife, remains impacted by the soft consumer sentiment. The Vietnamese market stabilized, and our volumes declined double digits due to the selling of the Tet New Year celebrations happening in Q4 last year, and market decline and share losses in our stronghold in the central part of the country, mainly on the Huda brand as competition and promotional activities in the mainstream segment intensified. In Laos, our volumes were impacted by bad weather and a challenging macroeconomic environment, leading to a mid-single-digit decline. The decline was more significant for water and soft drinks than for beer. Weather improved, however, in the Pima celebrations in April. In Cambodia, beer volumes grew by high single digits, while energy drinks continued to decline. Let's go to slide nine and see . As in Western Europe, Q1 is the smallest quarter in the European markets in this region, where the quarter accounts for approximately 20% of full year volume. Reported volumes grew by 9.9% due to the inclusion of the Britsvik business in Brazil and the consolidation of the Gorka brewery in Nepal. The organic volume development of minus 1.7% was mainly due to lower volumes in Kazakhstan and weak consumer sentiment across Southeast Europe and the Baltics. The growth in revenue per hectolitre was 2% and the result of price increases and a positive category mix. Reported revenue grew strongly at 12.6%, positively impacted by the acquisition impact of 14.4%. And the organic revenue growth was flat, while the currency impact was minus 1.9%, with Ukraine and Kazakhstan being the most significant contributors. The Indian bear market grew by estimated mid-single digits. And thanks to strong execution, effective trade marketing, and the quality and look and feel of the Carlsberg and Two Boy brand, our business delivered double-digit volume growth. Consequently, our market share strengthened, reaching almost 23%. And we expanded the reach of 1664 Blanc. In Ukraine, the war continued, causing electricity shortages and impacting the on-trade in particular. In addition, the mobilization of military personnel intensified and the macroeconomy continued to decline. We strengthened our market share further, cementing our number one market position. Volume increased slightly and a good growth for our premium portfolio and AFB was countered by declining volumes in our mainstream portfolio. In Kazakhstan, the beer market declined by an estimated mid-single digits, impacted by weak consumer sentiment and price increases. And although brands such as Satechi, Garage, and Carlsberg grew, total volume development was negative, impacted by tough comps due to stock build in Q1 last year, and also our decision to optimize portfolio profitability, which meant that we had deprioritized certain economy brands. In our export and license business, we saw very good growth for our AFB portfolio, but lower volumes in a couple of license markets. So let's go to slide 10 and the earnings outlook for the year. So we are now four months into the year, but we still have the important summer months ahead of us. And as you're well aware, the global macro environment and consumer sentiment are volatile and difficult to predict. And at this time, though, we have not seen many material changes to consumer behaviors in our markets. Our cost assumptions for the year remain unchanged, and we expect a flattish development in cost of sales per hectolitre but a moderate increase in our total cost base due to slightly higher commercial investments. And this includes marketing, sales, capability building, such as value management and B2B e-commerce, but also some ERP renovations. In our outlook, we assume an insignificant direct impact from US tariffs as our exposure to the US is less than 0.1% of total volumes. As a consequence of all this, we maintain our earnings expectations for 2025 of an organic operating profit growth of 1 to 5%. We are satisfied with the Q1 performance in Britvik and the actions taken in terms of business integration and synergy realization, and we continue, therefore, to expect an operating profit contribution of 250 million pounds. And based on yesterday's FX rate, we assume a translation impact on operating profit of around minus 200 million for 2025, compared with previous expectations of 150 million Danish kroner plus. The negative translation impact is due to most currencies weakening versus the Danish kroner, with the biggest impact coming from Asian currencies, including Chinese, Laotian, Malaysian currencies, and the Kazakh and Ukrainian currencies. The current impact does not include the impact of hyperinflation accounting in Laos or the current impact on profit in Britsvik. And the latter will in 2025 be included in the acquisition impact. So we now expect net finance costs, excluding FX, to be better than previously expected. And this positive development is mainly due to the well-executed refinancing of our bridge facility. And as a consequence, we now expect net finance costs of around 2.5 billion Danish kroner compared to previous expectations of 2.6 to 2.7 billion Danish kroner. The assumed tax rate of 23% and the capex of 7 to 8 billion Danish kroner remain unchanged. And now over to you, Jakob.

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