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Carlsberg As Shs A
10/30/2025
Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Carlsberg Q3 2025 Trading Statement conference call. I am Healy, the conference call operator. I would like to remind you that all participants will be in listen-only mode and the conference is being recorded. The presentation will be followed by a Q&A session. You can register for questions at any time by pressing star and 1 on your telephone. For operator assistance, please press star and 0. The conference must not be recorded for publication or broadcast. At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to Jakob Arup-Andersen, CEO. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much, and good morning, everybody, and welcome to the Casper Q3 2025 conference call. So, as I said, my name is Jakob Arup-Andersen. I'm the group's CEO, and I have with me our group's CFO, Ulrike Fern, and Vice President of Investor Relations, Peter Gondrup. Before we get into the meat, let me begin by summarizing the key headlines for the quarter. First of all, we delivered strong volume and revenue growth due to the British acquisition, for which both integration and synergy realization are progressing very well. In a soft consumer environment, we achieved solid underlying volume and revenue growth in Western Europe, and we achieved sequential quarterly improvement in Asia. As part of our well-embedded performance management process, we have since early summer taking decisive actions to adjust our cost base in order to protect continued earnings growth and to enable uninterrupted investments in our business. As you will have seen, we maintain our full-year earnings guidance. Now, I will provide the key group headlines for the quarter, and then Ulrike will take you through the regions and the full-year outlook. So let's turn to slide number three. As a result of the British acquisition and the consolidation of Gorkha Brewery in Nepal, reported revenue grew strongly by 17.8% to 24.1 billion kroners. Organic growth was impacted by the loss of San Miguel in the UK, the soft consumer sentiment, and the war in Ukraine, the combination of which led to an organic revenue decline of 1.4%. However, adjusting for San Miguel, organic revenue grew slightly. The impact from currencies was minus 2.3%, and mainly related to Asian and Eastern European currencies. So the 16.2% reported volume growth was also positively impacted by Britwick and Gorka Brewery, while the organic development of minus 3.0% was subject to the factors I just went through. Excluding San Miguel, the volume decline was 1.7%. We continue to see good progress for revenue for hectolitum, which improved by 2%, with positive contribution from all three regions. The improvement was driven by price increases and also a positive product mix, partly offset by channel mix due to a soft on-trade across the regions. Let's have a look at the positive mix drivers on slide four. Year to date, soft drinks accounted for 28 percent of our total volumes. making soft drinks our second largest volume segment after mainstream core beer. In Q3, soft drinks grew organically by 4%. This was driven by strong results in most of our major soft drinks markets. We saw particular good growth for the Pepsi franchise in Norway, Sweden, and Switzerland, and the Coca-Cola business in Finland. In Denmark, Tuborg Squash delivered good results following the relaunch earlier in the year. The 5% growth of our premium beer portfolio adjusted for San Miguel was the result of good performance in Western Europe and Asia, in particular in markets such as the UK, France, Finland, China, and Laos. Premium volumes were down by a low single digit in CE&I, primarily due to the very difficult circumstances in Ukraine, the soft consumer sentiment in Kazakhstan, and the heavy monsoon in India. Total alcohol-free brews were impacted, the volumes of total alcohol-free brews were impacted by Ukraine, excluding which volumes grew by 6%. In Western Europe, the growth was strong at 9%, and it was broadly based. And in several C&I markets, including Kazakhstan, Greece, and Croatia, we achieved double-digit growth rates. Beyond beer had a difficult quarter. Although wind, flowers, snow, moon delivered close to 20% volume growth in China, This could not upset overall lower category volumes, particularly in the large markets of Ukraine and Poland. Our key international brands all delivered positive growth in the quarter. While total reported Carlsberg volumes grew by 3%, the brand grew by 8% in markets with a premium positioning, not least thanks to a very strong growth in China. Reported Tuvok volumes grew by 2%, and this was mainly due to growth in premium markets, especially China and Vietnam. The 6 percent volume growth for 1664 Blanc was driven by strong performance in several Western Europe and C&I markets. That more than offset continued challenges in China where the brand is persistent in the super premium segment and was impacted by the decline in the night entertainment channel. Let's take slide five and an update on Britwick. We're very pleased with this acquisition. As you know, we increased the expected cost synergies by 10 million pounds. to 110 million pounds at our capital markets day on 1st of October. The upgrade was done based on the successful execution of our integration plans, which are delivering synergies across both the acquired Redwick business and across the old Carlsberg business. The teams are working hard to advance the integration as quickly as possible so we can ensure continued strong momentum in the coming years. The increasingly positive feedback from major customers in the UK is confirming our very strong confidence in the advantages of combining beer and soft drinks also in the U.K., and the long-term value creation opportunities from this acquisition remains very strong. Thanks to our rigid focus on business continuity and commercial execution, and despite the ongoing integration efforts, volumes in the U.K. and Ireland grew by 4 percent, and our market share strengthened, supported by the Pepsi franchise in both markets. Total bread brick volume and revenue development was impacted by the decisions taken earlier in the year to exit unprofitable volumes in France and Brazil. On October the 16th, we informed the Works Council of Teixeira in France of a project to overhaul the business model, impacting production, sales, and back office functions. More information can be found in the queue-free announcement. With this, I'm going to hand over to Ulrike, who's going to take you through the regions and the outlook.
Thank you, Jakob, and good morning, everyone. Please go to slide six in Western Europe, where we delivered strong reported growth due to BRITVIC, but also solid organic growth rates in many markets, including the Nordics, France, and the UK, excluding San Miguel. We delivered market share improvements in most markets in both beer and soft drinks. Reported revenue growth was 37.2%, while organic revenue was minus 1.2%. In adjusting for San Miguel, organic revenue growth was plus 2.1%, and volumes followed the same pattern, with reported growth of 48% and adjusted organic growth of plus 1.3%. Revenue per hectolitre was up by 1%, with low single-digit improvements in nearly all markets, thanks to a combination of price increases across the region and a positive category mix, partly offset by channel and country mix. Looking at a few markets and starting with the UK, and Jakob has already talked about soft drinks on the previous slide, so I will focus here on the organic business, which delivered very strong underlying set of results with mid-teens volume growth. The strong growth was in particular the result of double-digit growth for Carlsberg Peretti and the 1664 brand family. We are very satisfied with the progress of replacing the lost San Miguel volumes with our own brands. and we gained market share in both the on and the off trade channels. The Nordic markets delivered mid-to-single-digit volume growth, mainly driven by the very strong soft drinks performances, but also good growth for alcohol-free brews and premium beer. And on the back of easy comps, our French business continued the positive momentum in Q3, strengthening its market share and delivering low single-digit volume growth, thanks to the double-digit growth for alcohol-free brews, and mid-single-digit growth for premium. And these solid growth rates were, however, partly offset by the continued decline of the mainstream Kronenberg red and white. It was a difficult quarter for our business in Poland, where the beer market suffered from both bad weather and the soft consumer sentiment. Our premium portfolio grew double-digit, led by Ceteki and Blanc, and alcohol-free brews saw high single-digit growth, but these categories are not yet large enough to offset the volume decline in mainstream. We gained market share, but total volumes declined by double-digit percentages. And our Swiss volumes declined slightly, mainly due to a soft on-trade. So please go to slide seven in Asia, where we, as expected, saw sequential improvement, although consumer sentiment is still soft and the trading environment challenging. Organic revenue declined by 0.6% as a result of volume development of minus 1.2% and an increase in revenue per hectolitre of 1%. The positive development in revenue per hectolitre was driven by price increases and the favourable product and country mix. And the reported revenue development of minus 5.7% was impacted by the depreciation of the Chinese, Laotian and Vietnamese currencies. Looking at China, the beer market declined by an estimated 2% in Q3, despite easy comparables. And this was due to a tough macro environment and low consumer confidence. Our volumes were flat, and we strengthened our market share, both in Q3 and year-to-date. And year-to-date, our volumes in China were slightly up, while the market was slightly down. We saw mid-Singapore growth in the big cities, while our mainstream skewed businesses in the Western stronghold declined slightly. Our premium portfolio grew by mid-single digits thanks to more than 25% growth in Carlsberg and Windflower Snow Moon and mid-single digit growth for the very large Tuboy brand. Revenue per hectolitre was slightly up due to the positive brand mix, partly offset by channel mix. In Vietnam, our business delivered sequential quarterly improvement in line with our expectations. Our market share stabilised towards the end of the quarter and we saw mid-single digit growth for our premium portfolio, led by Carlsberg and Tuboy, and for Somersby. However, our big mainstream Huda brand was impacted by weak market in the central part of the country, exacerbated by three big storms in the quarter. And consequently, total volumes declined by mid-single digits. And while we see a continued progress in Q4, we will see an impact from the heavy rainfalls and floodings in central Vietnam that are happening as we speak. In Laos, our business stabilized in Q3. Although seeing signs of improvement in Q3, the market remained under pressure, impacted by soft consumer sentiment and labor migration. Premium beer grew strongly, albeit from a low base, and total volumes were slightly up, mainly driven by soft drinks. So let's go to Site 8 and CE&I, where reported volumes grew by 2.5% and revenue by 3.1%. positively impacted by the Brickvick acquisition and consolidation of the Gorkha brewery in Nepal. Organic numbers were impacted by the overall soft consumer sentiment, the war in Ukraine and the monsoon in India. And consequently, revenue declined organically by 2.8% and volumes by 5.2%. Revenue per hectolitre improved by 3%, mainly driven by price increases. And then a few comments on the largest businesses in the region. As already mentioned a few times today, the Indian beer market was negatively impacted by the heavy monsoon in the quarter. However, growth resumed in September. And while our volumes were not immune to the weather, declining 1% for the quarter, we still outperformed the market and gained further market share. As with the market, our volumes grew in September. Our volumes in Ukraine decline by high teens percentages. And in addition to the war-related challenges, including mobilization, missile attacks and emigration, the market was also impacted by cold and rainy weather during the season and high inflation. In Kazakhstan, our volumes increased by low single digits, supported by good growth of the mainstream portfolio. And here we are preparing for the full takeover of the Pepsi license from the 1st of January. And as we mentioned in August, the construction of the new bottom facility is ongoing and expected to be operational in half to 2026. And until then, we will make use of co-packers, which means that we will not expect any profit contribution from the Pepsi business in Kazakhstan in 2026. Now please go to slide nine and the earnings outlook for the year. In August, we updated our full year earnings expectations to the upper end of the previous range. Based on the Q3 performance, we maintain the outlook of an organic operating profit growth of 3 to 5%, and remember that this includes the negative San Miguel impact of around 2 to 3 percentage points. We have a strong cost culture in Carlsberg and well-embedded performance management process to ensure that we, when necessary, can take cost actions and or reallocate resources quickly. And as part of this process, we have since early summer taken actions to adjust our cost base to mitigate the impact from the subdued consumer environment. And these actions will protect earnings growth and at the same time secure the financial flexibility to allow us to increase our commercial investments in digital tools and capabilities and also in sales and marketing investments in key markets such as China in half too. The expected 250 million pounds of operating profit contribution from Britvic remains unchanged and we continue to focus on faster leveraging. And to repeat what we said earlier, the leverage reduction will be rather modest in 2025, and this is due to high cash costs this year, mainly related to the BrickVic integration. And based on yesterday's spot rates, we assume a currency impact on operating profit of minus 200 million Danish kroner, unchanged compared to the previous assumption. And this excludes the impact from hyperinflation in Laos. All other assumptions are also unchanged. Net financial expenses, excluding FX, are expected at minus 2.4 billion. The expected tax rate is unchanged at 23%. And we also keep the CapEx outlook of around 7 billion, although with a bias towards less than 7 billion. And with that, over to you, Jakob.
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