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Carlsberg As Shs A
4/29/2026
Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Carlsberg Q1 2026 Trading Statement Conference Call. I am Healy, the Coral Call Operator. I would like to remind you that all participants will be in listen-only mode and the conference is being recorded. The presentation will be followed by a Q&A session. You can register for questions at any time by pressing star and one on your telephone. For operator assistance, please press star and zero. The conference must not be recorded for publication or broadcast. At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to Jakob Arup-Andersen, CEO. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much, Operator, and good morning, everyone, and welcome to Carlsberg's Q1 2026 conference call. As said, my name is Jakob Arup-Andersen, and I have with me, as always, CFO Ulrike Fern and Vice President, Investor Relations, Peter Kondrup. Let me begin by summarizing the key headlines for the quarter. First of all, we delivered a good start to the year. Our growth categories delivered strong results. Our Asia region returned to solid growth, and we confirm our earnings guidance for the year. Finally, last week we reached another milestone with PepsiCo when we announced the takeover of the Pepsi franchises in Denmark, Finland, and the Baltics from 1st of January, 2029. Now let's turn to slide three and the key Q1 figures for the group. As said, we had a good start to the year. We delivered 2.8% organic volume growth, and we delivered growth in all three regions, and that was supported by an aggregate growth of 7% for our growth categories. All three regions contributed to the 1% improvement in revenue per hectolitre. Organic revenue grew by 3.6%. Reported growth was 3% as the positive acquisition impact related to BRITVIC, which was 2.7%, was offset by currencies, in particular the Chinese, Indian, and British currencies. Let's go to slide four and an update on our growth categories and, of course, our international brands. Premium beer volumes grew organically by 3%, with Premium Carlsberg and Tupac being particularly strong contributors. We saw good growth in all three regions, with particularly strong growth in the Nordics, UK, the Baltics, and India. Our soft drinks portfolio grew strongly by 10%, driven by really good growth across most markets, including the UK, Nordics, Switzerland, Laos, and of course Kazakhstan, where we are ramping up the Pepsi business. Excluding Kazakhstan, soft drinks still grew by an impressive 6%. Volume growth in the quarter was impacted by the SKU rationalization and exit of unprofitable contracts in France and Brazil in the latter part of Q1 and Q2 last year, when we took over the bread-baked business. Alcohol-free brews grew by double-digit in Western Europe. Growth was broad-based across markets, with Poland standing out, delivering very strong performance. We also saw good growth in most markets in Central and Eastern Europe, including in Ukraine. Total alcohol-free brew volumes grew by 7%. In Beyond Beer, we saw solid growth for Garage, but that was offset by Somersby, which declined in markets such as Poland, Laos, and certain export and license markets. The Carlsberg brand saw volume growth of 10%, turned by very good growth in premium markets such as China and India, and the mainstream UK market. Tuborg grew by 4%, and this was supported by strong growth in markets such as China, India, and Nepal. 1664 Blanc grew by 2%. That was driven by good growth across many markets, including for the alcohol-free version of the brand, partly offset by lower volumes in China. Let's take slide five and a few words on the expanded partnership with Pepsi, which we announced last week. From the 1st of Jan, 2029, we're going to take over the bottling rights in Denmark, including the German border trade, Finland, and the three Baltic states. We're very excited about the agreement. It makes sense on so many levels when you look at our partnership and how it has evolved over the years. Carlsberg is already PepsiCo's largest bottler in Europe. This longstanding strategic partnership spans more than 25 years of successful bottling partnerships in markets across Europe, Central Asia, and Southeast Asia. The new agreement makes Carlsberg the sole Pepsi bottler in the Nordics and Baltics, and it further solidifies the partnership with PepsiCo. As part of the agreement, we've also extended the contracts in Norway and Sweden, giving us very long contracts in all four Nordic and the three Baltic markets. Expanding our partnership with PepsiCo allows us to further benefit from its strong portfolio and the robust performance of the Pepsi brand, not least Pepsi Max, within the no-sugar segment. We believe we can further accelerate the growth of the Pepsi portfolio via our strong route to market, especially in the on-trade channel. We also see long-term growth prospects and value creation opportunities from launching more products and future innovations from the Pepsi portfolio. Moreover, having one Nordic-Baltic Pepsi cluster will allow us to explore opportunities for cross-border synergies and scale benefits within areas such as production, new product launches, et cetera. Before moving on, I want to make it very clear that we've had a very good partnership with Coca-Cola, and we will remain a committed Coca-Cola bottler until expiration of the contract at the end of 2028. And now, slide six and our new ESG program, which we launched in early March. The new program is called Brewing Tomorrow, and it strengthens our commitment to sustainability. Built around four pillars, which is cutting carbon, protecting nature, empowering people, and inspiring choice, Brewing Tomorrow provides a simple and actionable roadmap. We raised our climate ambition by introducing updated absolute scope-free carbon reduction targets in line with the requirements of the science-based targets initiative. We're also deepening our commitments to regenerative agriculture and recycled materials. And because of our increased exposure to soft drinks, we've added new sugar reduction targets. The program also introduces a new target focused on employees' experience of inclusion while maintaining the target on women in senior leadership position. Brewing Tomorrow builds on our learnings from the past and decades of reducing our impacts while updating our focus for the future and supporting business growth. As with the previous ESG program, it's embedded in how we run our operations how we engage across our value chain, and how we develop our people and create more choice across our expanding portfolio. Let's go to slide seven. Coinciding with the launch of brewing tomorrow, we launched our first-ever consolidated climate transition plan. This marks a milestone in our journey towards a low-carbon future. Building on nearly a decade of progress, the plan lays out our decarbonization roadmap towards 2032. describing the key levers for reducing emissions across agriculture, processing, own operations, packaging, transportation, and distribution and cooling. Our emission reduction targets are approved by the Science-Based Targets Initiative, and it raises our climate ambition by introducing updated absolute scope-free reduction targets. While we recognize that global macroeconomic conditions and the pace of supplier decarbonization which is often outside of our direct influence, that may affect how we quickly progress towards our goals, our focus remains clear. We want to deliver on our climate commitment to secure a sustainable future for our business, our people, our consumers, and for society as a whole. If you want to know more, the full plan is available on carlsberggroup.com. And now over to Ulrike, who will go through the regions and the outlook.
Thank you, Jakob, and good morning, everyone. Please go to slide eight and for Western Europe. Before we go into details here, remember that Q1 is the smallest quarter in this region. But nonetheless, we had a solid start to the year and delivered 1.2% organic volume growth, driven by 5% aggregate organic growth for our growth categories. And in Western Europe, these account for around 70% of total volumes. And the growth was supported by the earlier sell-in to the Easter than last year. Reported total volume growth was 6.6%, and this was due to the positive acquisition impact from Britfic of 5.4%. Organic revenue growth was 1.5%, and reported revenue growth was 5.6%, and this as the Britfic acquisition contributed by 4.6%, and partly offset by small currency impact by minus 0.5%. Revenue per hectolitre grew slightly, positively impacted by price increases and mix in beer, partly countered by category mix, and this is due to mid-single-digit growth in soft drinks. Looking at the markets in the region, our UK business continued a good momentum from last year, delivering strong growth ahead of the market in both beer and soft drinks, and the latter was supported by good results for the Pepsi portfolio, while the growth in beer was driven by very positive figures for Carlsberg, 1664 and Peretti. Total volumes grew by mid-single digits, also supported by the sell-in to Easter, which was earlier than last year. The Nordics saw high single-digit volume growth, which was supported by the sell-in to Easter. Our growth categories, including soft drinks, premium beer and alcohol-free brews, saw very good growth rates, and mainstream beer also saw positive growth rates in all markets except Finland. So in a slightly growing beer market in France, we strengthened our beer market share, driven by our premium brands. Volume in Tesserae, the former Britwick business in France, were down significantly due to last year's portfolio optimization actions and exits from unprofitable customer contracts. Our business in Switzerland was in the beginning of Q1 impacted by the customer conflict in Q4 last year. On trade remained under pressure, But our business caught up, and total volumes for the quarter grew by low single digits, mainly driven by the local Felschles and Valasans brand. And we also saw continued positive momentum for Pepsi. The Polish beer market was weak in Q1, and that was impacted by cold weather. In addition, our volumes were impacted by price increases ahead of the market and stocking prior to the implementation of a deposit return system in December. we were encouraged to see good results for our growth categories, albeit this was not enough to offset lower volumes for mainstream beer. So now let's go to slide nine and Asia. And here we saw solid organic volume growth of 3.4%, driven by 6% growth for our growth categories, which account for more than 40% of volumes, but also positive development of mainstream volumes. Revenue per hectolitre improved by 1%, resulting in organic revenue growth of 4.4%. And due to a negative currency impact of minus 6.3%, reported revenue development was minus 1.9%. The revenue per hectolitre improvement was driven by positive category mix and price increases, and partly offset by country mix. And we did not see any impact from the conflict in the Middle East in the quarter. In China, we continue to grow in the big cities, driven by the premium brands such as Carlsberg, Two Boy, and Windflower, Snow Moon, and also Jing A. While mainstream volumes in some of our western strongholds were under pressure, impacted by the soft macro economy and tough competition. Our premium volumes grew 3% and we also saw good initial traction of a local soft drinks launch. Total volumes and revenue per hectolitre were up slightly, the latter mainly due to a positive product mix. In Laos, our volumes grew by high single digits, supported by market growth and stabilisation of the economy in January and February, and selling in March ahead of the PMI celebrations in April, despite the increasing fuel shortage. Growth was particularly strong for soft drinks, being in the mid-teens, and volume growth for beer was low single digits. Our business in Vietnam delivered very strong growth on the back of easy comps and good momentum during the festive season. The growth was in particular supported by very strong growth of the local Huda brand on the back of strong market demand in its stronghold in the central part of the country. And we saw very good growth for 1664 Blanc, supported by good performance in the modern channel during the festive season. And now slide 10 and C&I, which delivered a set of strong figures for the first quarter. Volumes grew organically by 4.6%, with 14% aggregate growth posted for our growth categories. Revenue per hectolitre improved by 3%, leading to organic revenue growth of 8.1%. Reported revenue growth was 3.1% due to the depreciation of the currencies in India, Ukraine, and Nepal. Revenue per hectolitre was positively impacted by price increases and solid growth of premium beer and alcohol-free brews, partly offset by category mix due to the strong growth of soft drinks in Kazakhstan. And we continued our strong performance in India, seeing double-digit volume growth supported by strong growth for Two Boys Strong and Carlsberg Elephant. And the business delivered solid revenue per hectolitre growth due to premium growth and a positive state mix. And in February, we said that we are exploring different options for increasing shareholder value, which may potentially include an IPO of our business in India, but no final decision has been made, and this remains the situation. Our business in Nepal also saw strong volume growth, with the local Gorkha brand and Two Boy being the main drivers. We did not see any impact from the conflict in the Middle East, in India, and Nepal in Q1. Our business in Ukraine continued to be impacted by the war, leading to double-digit volume decline, and the volume decline decreased towards the end of the quarter as the intensity of large-scale attacks decreased. In Kazakhstan, the growth was around 70% due to the ramp-up of the Pepsi business in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. The team in Kazakhstan is doing a fantastic job building our Pepsi business, and we have achieved incredible results in just six months. And we're looking forward to the peak season in Q2 and Q3 and also finalizing the construction of our facility later this year. Our volumes in Brazil declined due to last year's skew rationalization and business optimization. And volume in export and license businesses declined slightly, and this was mainly due to lower tubal volumes in license markets. And we continued to build new businesses and added a number of new license markets, both in Central Europe and Africa. Now please go to slide 11 and a few comments on the current situation in the Middle East. To date, we have not seen any significant impact on the conflict on consumer sentiment or on our business. That said, we are monitoring the situation closely. So let me provide some context on how we're managing the situation and preparing the business should the conflict be prolonged and begin to impact consumers and or our operations. So we have considerable experience in successfully mitigating negative impacts from uncertainty and substantial changes in the operating environment in a fast and disciplined manner. Examples include COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine and the subsequent inflationary and commodity shocks. And these experiences have strengthened our processes and our preparedness for managing unforeseen large-scale disruptions. Our focus is centred around three areas. Consumer behaviour, commodity development and potential supply chain disruptions. And with respect to consumer behavior, we have prepared a range of commercial initiatives that can be deployed should we see meaningful changes in the consumer dynamics across our markets. And those initiatives are centered around price and pack initiatives, as well as certain brand initiatives. On commodities, the situation remains highly volatile, and we follow our usual practices for hedging with hedges in place for 2026 and into 2027 for key commodities, such as aluminium, barley, sugar and energy. We are a bit more opportunistic in hedging than usual and try to take advantages when the market prices dip. And as you know, our policy is to offset cost increases through increasing our revenue per hectolitre by utilising the full value management toolbox, including levers such as prices, promo and pack sizes, etc. On supply chain disruption, we have mapped our key risk exposures, including the availability of critical raw and packaging materials and energy. And we have mitigations plans in place, such as alternative supplier and energy sources, which can be activated if required. So overall, we're in a good place and believe that we are well prepared. However, if the conflict were to continue for an extended period, it would inevitably make mitigation increasingly challenging over time. Now, please go to slide 12 and the earnings outlook for the year. We had a good start of the year, but of course, we still have the important summer months ahead of us. We maintain a full year expectation of flatage cost of sales per hectolitre for the group, albeit with variations between regions and markets. We confirm our earnings expectations for 2026 of an organic operating profit NPM growth of 2% to 6%, And we started the year with good momentum across most markets, had good commercial plans in place, we maintained tight cost discipline, and the BRICVIC synergies are coming through. Based on yesterday's FX rate, we assume a translation impact on operating profit of around zero for 2026 compared to the previous expectations of minus 100 million Danish kroner. Other relevant assumptions are unchanged. We expect financial expenses, excluding FX, of around 2.2 billion Danish kroner, reported effective tax rate of around 23%, and capex of around 6 to 7 billion. And with that, back to you, Jakob.
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