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Cellnex Telecom Sa Ord
2/27/2026
Okay, good afternoon. Welcome to our full year 25 conference call. Thank you for being with us again. We have the full executive committee with us, corporate executive committee, and we'll kick off with Marco Patuano, CEO, a brief review of results, handing over to Ramon Trias-Fitas for our financial overview, and then we're all available for Q&A.
Thank you. Thank you, Maria. Good morning, everyone. It's a pleasure to be with you again as we open a new financial year and reflect on our results and our strategic progress. So in 2025, we delivered on all our premises and we confirmed how resilient our industrial model is. In a very volatile environment, we continue to execute our strategy with conviction and clarity and delivered results that demonstrated the point of our assets And most importantly, the predictability of our revenues and organic growth model have reaffirmed the strength of the relationship with our cluster. We successfully deliver on our 2025 guidance and we reiterate our 2027 outlook. We returned 1 billion euros to shareholders through share buybacks, one year ahead of the plan, representing a total yield of 4.5%. We initiated dividend payments at the beginning of 2026 as committed at our capital market day, and we continue on track to meet our leverage targets, reducing leverage from 639 in 2024 to 628 in 2025. We have reached an important turning point where year after year, we will generate increasing free cash flows, giving us greater flexibility to enhance our shareholder returns fund industrial initiatives, and reach our leverage targets. In 2025, we grew organically on all fronts with new points of presence accelerating throughout the year, showing continued demand for digital infrastructure. On a performer organic basis, Our revenues increased by 5.8%, EBITDA by 7.1%, EBITDA after leases by 7.9%, with a 1.6 percentage point increase in margin. Transformational industrial actions focused on boosting top-line growth, optimizing cost, and proactive lease management are unlocking the operating leverage of our business. Our recurring leverage free cash flow grew by 11.5% and on a per share basis by 16.7%. And the free cash flow grew to 350 million euros, confirming the positive momentum. With our capital allocation strategy, we completed the disposal of the French data center business, allowing us to increase our focus on core telecom infrastructure assets. At the same time, we have agreed to dispose our participation in the DIVII fund for circa 170 million. DIVII, for memory, is a participation in a European infrastructure fund underwritten in 2021 in order for us to explore minority investment opportunities in digital assets. And we successfully issued in 2026 a bond for 1.5 billion in two tranches to anticipate funding requirements, extending maturities and securing a pricing of 3.4%. From an organizational standpoint, we also recently announced the implementation of a more streamlined and agile leadership structure, which I will give you more color on shortly. Returning to our guidance for 2025, I would like to highlight our delivery across all the key metrics. And the fact that this guidance was set almost five years ago confirms the resilience and the predictability of our business. Consistent execution of our industrial plan is translating into operating results, which combined with normalizing capital intensity underpins the trajectory of growing cash generation and sustained profitability. As I mentioned, we announced a new organizational leadership structure in February, marking important progress in the next chapter of our industrial transformation strategy. The new model is designed to bring sharper strategic focus, deepen customer relationship, enable faster decision making, and stronger functional alignment, all essential to support continued organic growth. We combine geographic cluster with a pan-European vertical solution division, strengthening execution while ensuring consistency across markets. We're entering in a chapter defined by operational focus, team empowerment and agility, ready to capture the opportunities ahead. I would like to give you a flavor of why we created our new vertical solution division. Several connectivity needs today exceeded the capacity of a traditional micro coverage and requires solution very specialized by nature. Transportation, venues, city centers, public safety, defense, resilience, all of them are very different in terms of technical solution, but very similar across the geographies. We're deploying an operational model aimed to scale up every vertical connectivity solution increase the commercial focus and ensure execution discipline and improve accountability. We are already leaders in Europe, leveraging on our centralized design capabilities and our country execution power. We want to further improve our performance. Now, I hand over to Raimon to go over the highlights of our operating and financial performance. Raimon, please.
Thank you, Marco. Good morning, everyone. I would like to start by reinforcing our very positive performance in terms of organic growth and cash conversion in the year 25. Robust revenue growth combined with a continuous focus on operational excellence is driving higher profitability, a stronger operating leverage, and expanding cash flow. Starting with organic revenues, we delivered a solid 5.8% year-on-year. EBITDA grew by 7.1%, supported by ongoing actions to increase operational efficiency. EBITDA after leases was 7.9% higher, reflecting our proactive lease management activity. And recurring lever free cash flow rose 11.5%, supported by the disciplined implementation of our capital allocation strategy. Very important, the recurring lever free cash flow pressure grows by 16.7%, underscoring the incremental value we create for shareholders. Moving to slide 9, as usual, we show you the bridge between reported and organic performer revenue growth. Starting from 3,941 million revenues in 2024, the perimeter adjustment for Ireland and Austria brings us to a performer revenue base of 3,790 million. From there, the combination of escalators and CPI, co-locations, and built-to-soup deployments led to organic revenue growth, like for like, of 5.8%. This strong revenue performance, as you can see in the next slide, is led by healthy pop growth in the fourth quarter 25, and as Marco said, throughout the year. Gross collocation and build to suit accelerated to 3,043 in the quarter, demonstrating sustained customer demand and a strong commercial traction across the portfolio. We recorded a strong collocation in France, 220, Italy, 887, and the UK, 128. We continued BTS deployment across most countries, and overall churn was contained at 307 units. Net new POPs have shown consistent quarter-over-quarter growth throughout the year. Moving to slide 11, the net POP growth in 2025 has been 4.5%, fully absorbing a 1.2% churn influenced by the effects of two major consolidations in Spain and the UK. In Spain, despite the Masoran's network reconfiguration process underway, we recorded year-on-year growth in total POPs. This reflects the importance of the support we provide our customers in their ongoing network deployments and how we benefit from the unlock potential for M&AOs to invest after market consolidation. The UK also posted consistent quarterly growth, driven by continuous 5G deployments, amendment programs, and selective new site activity illustrating the depth of demand and ongoing investment to catch up and improve network quality across the country. If we go to the next slide, the strength of our operational performance is again clear in this slide, which shows organic growth in tower revenues of 5.5%, driven by contractual escalators, collocation, and ongoing build-to-suit rollouts across our main markets. A reminder that these figures are adjusted for Ireland and Austria for comparability. Here we have selected few practical examples that show how our industrial strategy is being translated into real-world execution across different areas of the business. First, 5G densification in Italy. PassWeb, Vodafone and Zelnix Italy have extended their strategic agreement for an additional 12 years. This enables enhanced coverage and improves service quality through the deployment of 5G, supported by over 1,000 points of presence across the country. Second, network resilience and power autonomy. Telefónica and Celnex Spain have signed the first agreement of its kind between a tower co and an operator to strengthen power assurance across more than 2,000 sites. This initiative improves network resilience and energy security following the recent blackouts in Spain. There is potential to develop more energy-related business across our portfolio, providing interesting upside to our core tower services. And third, the new markets through non-terrestrial networks. We provide land acquisition and construction capabilities to support low-air orbit satellite initiatives. Telnex can provide the essential getaways between LEO constellations and the terrestrial fiber backbone. Together, these examples illustrate how our operational strategy is being deployed on the ground and how it is opening new avenues for growth while reinforcing our role in next generation connectivity. Let's move on to slide 14. Fiber connectivity and housing services deliver to strong 16% increase in revenues, supported by the continued rollout of the Next Look project in France. The growth in bus, small south and Granada service was driven by flagship deployments and the increasing relevance of neutral host solutions with projects delivered across venues and high traffic locations such as Roche Arena in Valencia, La Cartuja Stadium in Seville, PGE National Stadium in Poland. 5G rollouts in Madrid Metro and more than 40 parking facilities, as well as multi-operator small cell deployments in Portugal and the renewal of long-term IoT agreements such as Securitas Direct. Our broadcasting business remains stable with a 1.9% growth year-on-year, and importantly, we secure the renewal of our long-term contracts with the leading broadcaster in Spain. On slide 15, we can see that our industrial plan continues to scale as strengthened by the adoption of AI. The initiatives shown here aim to standardize processes, automate operations, and reinforce asset management across the world. This collective effort is making the organization more agile, reducing operational complexity, and improving our ability to respond quickly and consistently across countries. It is also visible externally. In 2025, customer engagement reached a new high, with customer satisfaction index increasing to 8.3 out of a maximum of 10, the best result of the past decade. We are on a path of coordinated transformation that is elevating efficiency, effectiveness, quality, and overall service experience. This industrial platform has helped so that our efficiency initiatives are translated in clear margin expansion, as you can see in the next slide. On a pro forma basis, we reduce cost per towers across all our key cost categories. 1.9% less in staff cost, 1.4% less in repair and maintenance, 4.9% reduction in SG&A per tower, and 1.1% reduction in leases. Land management remains a key value driver for us. We deployed 270 million across land acquisition capex and efficiency programs, generating around 24 million in efficiencies, displaying how our disciplined capital allocation strategy helps offset volume and CPI-related inflationary pressures in lease cashouts. These focus efforts have driven an increase in EBITDA margins of 300 basis points to 62.1%, up from 59.1% in 2023. The first part of the next slide shows the bridge from reported EBITDA and all the components that shape our free cash flow. In addition to our operating performance, this is a strong recurrent level free cash flow comes from an efficient capital and tax structure. Combined with the continued decline in expansion and built-to-suit capex, free cash flow amounted to €350 million. This free cash flow acceleration represents a turning point, as you can see in the next slide. Our operational improvements are clearly flowing down to cash. On a pro forma basis, the current level free cash flow grew by 11.5% almost 200 million euros. And on a per share basis, the increase was even stronger at 16.7%, also reflecting the share buyback program, which continues to enhance value per share. Looking at reported figures, free cash flow reached 350 million euros, with underlying free cash flow, excluding or before the remedies, improving by 307 million year on year. 2025 marked an important milestone for us with the entry into a new phase of consistent and rapidly accelerating free cash flow generation that supports our deleveraging strategy, as you can see in slide 19. Net debt, a bit down, improved to 6.28 times from 6.39 in 2024 and 6.85 in 2023, keeping us firmly on track towards our 5 to 6 times target. I would like to note that the pace of the leveraging could have been faster if we hadn't brought forward 1 billion euros in shareholder remuneration. Our leverage would have closed below the six times. Our recent 1.5 billion bond issue that Marco mentioned before in January 26 successfully pre-founded most of our 2026 maturities with a strong appetite from investors on the back of a good market momentum and our strong rating output. we managed to extend maturities and secure an attractive 3.4% pricing. Now, let me hand back to Marco so that he shares our guidance 26 and 27.
Thank you, Raymond. I would like to close our presentation with a message of confidence. The strength of our business and underlying sector drivers The continued execution of our strategy and the power of our customer relationship give us the confidence to firmly reiterate our guidance for 2027 and share our outlook for 2026. Let me highlight that our outlook has been adjusted to reflect three elements. the change of perimeter following the data center disposal, the discontinuation of our operation and maintenance business in Spain, and the incremental financial costs associated with the share buyback. As you can see, we are very optimistic about our continued growth, profitability, and cash generation. So in summary, 2025 was a great year for us. and we are very confident going into 2026 and 2027. Our business model is intact. Drivers of network investment are healthy, and customer relationships are stronger day by day. Our organization is driven with renewed leadership, focused on growth, efficiency, and customer excellence. Our growth trajectory and increasing free cash flow underpin our commitment to enhanced shareholder remuneration, and give us further capacity to outperform our CMD distribution targets. So thank you.
Okay, so before moving to the Q&A, I'd just like to highlight that in addition to the main slides in the body of the presentation, we've added a few new slides at the end, some fact slides that cover many of the topics that you often ask us. So we really hope you find them useful. And with that, we're now available to take your questions. So the first question that we have on the lineup is from Roshan, sorry, Roshan Ranjit at Deutsche.
Morning, everyone. Thanks. Thanks for the questions. I just got three, hopefully quite quick, please. Marco, you highlighted the Spanish revenue pickup because of the colos. I guess, you know, this is a benefit of the kind of the MergeCo already coming through now. Can you remind us how many ops and the trajectory of that ramp-up through 2026, please? Secondly, on the EBITDA pickup, a strong acceleration on the organic growth, is this now the benefit of the Sri Lanka coming in, and we should expect that momentum to continue through 2026, or is there an element of time in effect in there, please? And lastly, thanks for the additional color on the backup slide. I'm quite interested in the RAN sharing slide. And you've given examples across Europe. It's possible to get a sense of the kind of pricing premium across the different markets that you attribute from RAN sharing. Is it kind of a consistent uplift in pricing or does it vary depending upon market structure? Thank you.
yes very good so uh your first question on spain i take uh question one and three and i leave the bit after these two to raymond um so um on your on your first question so spain had the first phase in spain was uh the redesign of the network uh coming from uh mass orange So you see that at the beginning of 2025, we had a material churn in our point of presence. We started in the second part of 2025 to activate the run-sharing agreement we have with DIGI, which was a part of the deployment strategy of DIGI in Spain. And we started the so-called rural project in Spain with MassOrig. Now, for 2026, we start entering in the densification process project that we have with Mass Orange, and we will continue to activate more POPs with DIGI. So 2025 was Mass Orange very much focused on reshaping the network and the activation of DG, filling the gap that was coming from some discontinuation in Mass Orange. And 2026, on the contrary, will be Mass Orange starting the diversification project. Your second question on RAN, the question on RAN is pricing depends very much on, not very much, to some extent on market conditions. You should imagine something between half of a collocation price and one third of a collocation price, depending on the structure of the market. uh normally they have uh very very very limited activation costs on our site so it's pure margin for us because there are basically no capex associated to these yes there are some opex because our engineers have to make some little adjustments but it's pure it's pure margin
On the EBITDA perspective and the LAMCO, as you will have seen, this year we have done up to 270 million world of initiatives, both on efficiency and land acquisition across all the different countries that have allowed us to save approximately 24 million euros in terms of savings of EBITDA. As you will have seen on the guidance, this trend will continue going forward. The idea is that over the next years, Since we created Zenland, we have accelerated the amount that we are able to buy and we are buying more than prior years. It is true that we need to be careful not to compete with ourselves and we need to keep certain level that normally we consider between 250-300 million for the coming years to keep on achieving this level of savings going forward.
That's great, thanks. So just on the last point, Ramon, so the kind of Q4 exit EBITDA growth could be something that we can expect through 26 then?
I would say if you take the savings that we have achieved this year, there is part of it, as you are saying, there has been a bit more of activity in the last quarter. and a bit more of savings so you have to consider that for doing the phasing for next year but then next year will depend if we buy 250 300 that the new savings of next year will kick in as well okay that's great thanks thanks so so moving on to the next question it comes from rohit at citibank
Thank you for the opportunity. I have three P's as well. Firstly, on the guidance for 2027. Now, I understand the guidance was initially given. It was a bit long-dated, and you have a broader range. Now, given you are near to 2027, we are already in the start of 2026, we still have, you know, I understand 5% range on the revenue level, but that goes down to 20% range on free cash flow level. And with a business like Cellnex, where you have a higher visibility, I'm just trying to understand what the swing factors on recurring level free cash flow and free cash flow for 27 that you expect, you know, that, you know, number can move from lower end to higher end. That's the first one. Second, again, there's a lot of noise we have seen, particularly recently in Italy around renegotiation of contract. I'm just trying to understand could be any kind of beneficiary from, you know, if anything happens in Italy. And lastly, if you can just remind us around the derivative position that you have taken last year, the swaps just before the buybacks. I mean, is there a kind of termination date do you have on those swaps, given you do mark the market and you have kind of cash outflow, potential cash outflow if you don't terminate that contract? Thank you so much.
Okay. uh so so um on 2027 uh on 2027 guidance uh yes uh you know uh i remember there was a bit of skepticism in uh in the recent past about our capacity to go to go to target uh the more it was long term the more the skepticism was uh Today, I think that the level we reached in 2025 gave a good visibility of how the recurring level free cash flow and the free cash flow are achievable. So what are the factors that made them achievable? Well, we defended and protected the revenue growth. The revenue growth, despite a worse than expected, originally expected CPI, we are maintaining a good level of growth. This is important. And as you saw, the idea of making a new organization is in order to keep revenue growth. uh we are performing well in terms of efficiencies uh raymond just just explored and Even more, our discipline in capital allocation was demonstrated more and more. So the range for 2027 is what we confirmed at the capital market day. And the more we get closer to this day, the more we see it feasible. both in terms of recurring leverage and even more importantly in terms of full cash flow. So your second question was about contract renegotiation. Look, what I can tell you is that we already renegotiated several contracts. We renegotiated with Telefonica, we had no problems. We renegotiated with Vodafone, we had no problems. We renegotiated with... KPN in the Netherlands, we had no problems. With Iliad in France, we had no problems. So our experience is that the renegotiation moment is a moment in which you sit with your client. The client will tell you what he likes and what he doesn't. But the core elements of our contract have never been questioned. So the fact that it is a long-term is a long-term. The fact that it is an all or nothing is a low or nothing. It has never been questioned until today. On top of these, talking about Salnex, what I can tell you is that the coming renegotiation are not tomorrow. So we have the next renegotiation. We have one in Italy in 2030. And then we go to 20, 30, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 42, 48. So in this moment, of course, we are looking with attention what happens in the industry, but our experience as of today has not been dramatic. And the last I leave to Raimond.
Yeah, on the last topic, I'm not sure if I understood properly, but I'm going to try to answer what I understood. I think that you were asking why last year, most of the return, all the returns that we have gone to shareholders have been through the share buybacks. There are various reasons. The first one, if you remember in the capital markets day, we committed to a dividend starting 2026. Why is that? You've seen the guidance that we have given. The free cash flow is between six and 700 million. So it allow us to pay a dividend based on the cash generation from the business. last year we had cash available that it was coming partially from the cash generation of the business the 300 million that we have done 350 but it was coming also from the divestments of austria and ireland and on top of that the share price was at the moment that was very attractive that's why we also decided to use the proceeds for doing the share my bank i i hope it was it was clear enough
So it was regarding the swap, the swap contract that you entered last year. Would you continue to have that contract?
No, the equity swap is still in place. It matures in June 26, and it was bought at 32 euros, and we are today at 31.5. Thank you.
Okay, so moving on to the next question. It's coming from Arnaud Camus at Best Invert.
Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. First, I assume the discussion may be limited, but could you provide some indication of the size of the battery resilience agreement you have signed with Telefonica in Spain? Should we assume this is a replicable model to other countries of your footprint? And two, more broadly, regarding the forthcoming Cyber Security Act, I know it may be early, but could you share any initial visibility on the potential CAPEX envelope and implementation timeline as you are an infrastructure provider to telecom operators? And is it already considered within your 2027 guidance? Thank you.
Yeah. So the battery agreement is still relatively sizable with Teleflotica. We are discussing with them how to expand it more. Because what we agreed with them is to have modular development of this program based on the network design. Our technical teams are working strictly together. The target is to have several thousand sites covered. And it's a super interesting business model. Because what we do is like, imagine not to be a pure infrastructure or a simplified infrastructure, but to be a service infrastructure provider. So we help to take care of the infrastructure from the bottom to the top. Having a program that allows us to buy batteries on a pan-European basis, we can have very good prices and even more importantly, we have very long insurance terms for the life protection of those batteries. We agree on life protection up to 15, 20 years. Is it replicable? Yes, it's very replicable. We have several other customers that are interested in this business model. exactly because of what I told you. We are negotiating very good prices on very good volumes. Don't underestimate the fact that securing volumes in this moment in which there is a starts to be a certain level of shortage on this type of of elements is clear. About the Cyber Security Act, the CSA, I was in Brussels last week talking about DNA and CSA, so the two regulations that are expected going forward. The answer is yes, we are working very closely with the European community. There are still margins of known clarity, non-perfect clarity in what is going to be the the final outcome. And to be honest, different member states have a different interpretation of the scope. Some are more strict, some are less strict. What we have in 2027, we are convinced that is full enough for what is going to be the requirement of the CSA. Then, if you ask me if the CSA will be fully enforced in 2027, I'm not so optimistic. Thank you. Thank you very much.
Okay, so moving on to the next question. It comes from Fernando at Alantra.
Hello. Yes, good morning. Thank you. Two quick questions from my side. First, on the expansion capex, I've seen it is down 6% year-on-year on a performance basis. I don't know if you can elaborate a little bit on the main drivers behind this. And also, how should we think about its evolution for 26 and 27? the split between the different three CAPEX items. And second, on POPs growth, so you've accelerated throughout the year. Is it reasonable to assume a similar growth profile in 26? And can you give us an indication of what share of new POPs will be linked to run sharing agreements? Thank you.
Mm-hmm.
okay uh on expansion capex uh so there are two two elements A few time ago, Raymond showed you that on DAS and Small Cell RAN and other services, we grew almost 5%. The reality is that if you open this number between DAS and Small Cell RAN and other, you would have seen that DAS and Small Cell were growing about 8.1%, RAN about 10%, and the other was growing much less. but the the real focus for us today is the dust small cell and run so going forward what we see the the place we see uh having the capex is uh those two areas uh dust and small cells in this order more dust than small cells so the the small cell take up is still low even though there are some interesting use cases in some european countries that we are monitoring very closely of small cells covering city center uh very efficiently and with a very low urbanistic impact, and the other is RUN. Our RUN project in Poland is using some CAPEX. So this is about the expansion CAPEX. Then, of course, there is a part of expansion CAPEX that is linked to co-location, but this is our expansion CAPEX that, you know, every year we have more or less the same.
uh about uh uh pop growth uh raymond yep so during the year 26 uh you know that our growth in pops comes from two things now comes from locations and it comes from the to shoot build to shoot will slow down a little bit in the year 26 basically because our programs of build to shoot are reducing year on year as they come from the prior mna deals The normal collocation, we're expecting similar growth as this year, not a big difference. And you were asking as well from our run sharing perspective. This year, the run sharing has mainly been in Spain with the entrance of Digi. And I would say that for next year, although you also have a bit in Italy, I would say that for next year, you have to consider that there will be similar run sharing coming from Spain and a bit in Italy as well. But I would just consider that from the collocation, what comes from Spain is what will be run sharing.
Okay, thank you very much. So moving on to the next question, it's coming from Andre at UBS.
Hi, thank you very much for the presentation. I had to step away for a moment, so apologies if I'm repeating a question. Please feel free to ignore it. So I have two questions, please. One is on the news that Iliad has decided to allocate part of the contract that you were mentioning at the previous quarter that you are and kind of looking at the 4,500 sites in France. So Iliad has allocated at least half of this to TDF. I was wondering, Marco, if you can again kind of explain to us your thinking about the returns on this project, why this is the second project with Iliad specifically that you are kind of turning, that you're walking away from, presumably because of the kind of IR not meeting your standards. So that would be question number one, please. And second question related to France. We heard last week on the CMD that Chris Sell, the CEO of Orange, was talking about again, kind of, you know, investment remedies. And so I was wondering if this is something that is already somehow kind of taking shape in light of various, you know, positive, say, developments, for example, the European Council openly suggesting that, you know, M&A should be allowed and, you know, investment is needed, remedies are needed in that direction. So any kind of color on developing talks around that potential situation would be very helpful. Thank you.
Okay, I answered Nemrod. And then today with us, there is also our chief strategy, who is French, by the way. So I will leave him to respond, Andrei. So on Nemrod, yes, we participated to the tender. And the tender itself is an evidence that there is more need of coverage and densification. So this is, you know, I commented a million times in the past, and then there is a tender. So the good part of the story is that densification needs are there. We've been looking to the tender. We submitted an offer, but we submitted an offer that was in line with our... uh capital allocation rules so did make uh us not to to reach the agreement uh with uh with ilia uh because uh it was out of our uh investment criteria and our capital allocation criteria so we decided that uh if there was someone uh offering more we would have stayed disciplined. So our goal is not to catch up with every investment there is in Europe. There are We are disciplined. We know where we create long-term value creation. And so that's it. We will focus on other projects. Vincent, would you like to answer the second question?
Yeah, of course. Good morning, André. So, yes, we are obviously extremely close to our different customers. We're not directly involved, as you perfectly know, within the discussion of the consortium. But we are also, as Marco mentioned, pretty convinced that Any consolidation, if it happens, will come with investment remedies, not only in new coverage, but also on the resiliency of the system. So we have shown our proactiveness with all our partners to support these remedies. And as you perfectly know, in any case, what we will procure is to protect the NPV of our contract. and giving some short-term flexibility in exchange of long-term growth that will come from these remedies without any doubts. And this will result in the protection of the NPVO for our contract.
Okay, thank you. So, yes, I was with some members of the French institutional establishment. And what they told me is that they consider infrastructure investment a high priority for the country. So there's no doubt that there will be more investment coming. Good.
Okay, so now moving on to the next question, we have Avelash from BNP on the line.
Yeah, good afternoon, everyone, and thanks again for taking the question. I just had one, please. I wanted to come back to the topic of the guidance ranges and specifically around the revenues. So about 100 million delta for 2026, between low and high end, 200 million for 2027. Just wanted to understand specifically on revenues, what is the key factor there? Is it around inflation assumptions, presumably not given it's so close? So is it mainly around co-locations?
um or are there any other factors so any color you could add there around the revenue ranges that would be very helpful thank you yeah the what do you want uh raymond in terms of the guidance the only thing that we have adjusted you have it in the presentation is basically the change of the meter that is coming because of the data center disposal. Also, we have adjusted the discontinuation of the operational maintenance activities that we had in Spain. If you recall, we decided to stop this something like 15 months ago, but it had an impact during two years still because it took some time to discontinue the operations. And the third thing that we have adjusted into the guidance is the impact of the increased share-by-back
was not considered in our numbers in the capital market say the rest of the guidance 27 has not changed and remains as it was before sorry thank you apologies it was not um clear from the way i framed the question i was just maybe a little more wondering on what is driving the variance between the low and high end of the revenue thing yeah yeah the key what are the key factors yeah i think that the wide
I think that the width of the range depends very much on somehow the future of built-to-suit programs, if we're going to allocate more built-to-suit programs or not. A Nemrod project enters, we have the full capacity in our cash flow to have such a project and it contributes. to your growth, the project doesn't enter and we rely more on collocation and the existing commitment that we have. So having or maintaining a certain element uh is uh is uh absolutely absolutely normal uh and by the way so it is also a decision of not to touch what we what we committed at the capital market day so if we start touching one point with then we have to make a full revision so but uh if you ask me what can move us from the from the low end to the high end would tell you that what is going to come from collocation run sharing etc more or less we have a fairly clear picture what are the commitments that are already taken we know uh even a descent uh is possible that uh uh something uh something uh more materialize in the coming months before between here and the end of 2027 yes and we will evaluate we demonstrate we are disciplined we're not going to make crazy stuff if we do something it's because it generates value long-term value so I think it's fine if I can add to Marco it's important that everyone understands the predictability of the business this year we have achieved a guidance 25 that was given five years ago
So the barrier that can happen within these numbers is very small in that perspective. Good. Thank you.
Thank you both for the color. So just to clarify, you're saying that the high end of the guidance is more sort of predicated on additional bill to sort projects over and above what we already have, if I understood that correctly. But then for the revenue guidance, I mean, thank you.
For going up to the higher part of the guidance, yes. There are other projects that should be one during the year to be able to get to the higher part of the guidance, correct.
Okay. Thank you. Moving on. We can follow up afterwards if you still have any questions. Now moving on to the next question. It comes from Fernando at Santander.
Hello, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question, my two questions, in fact. The first one is related with a follow-up in the sense that you have been over the years about your confidence on the pop growth for 2026. I'm going a little bit beyond, given that the built-to-suit activity is going to clearly decrease by 2027 and onwards. How confident are you of replacing the current pop growth coming from built-to-suit with Colos? And the second question is on active equipment. You have already the project in Poland. I just would like to understand at which extent you would be also, let's say, open for additional projects, and particularly I'm thinking in Spain, just as a way to complement your current portfolio and even to, let's say, to give more visibility in the long term to your current business in Spain.
So the bid to suit programs, as I said one second ago, we have a program of committed that what has been already committed has a sharp decline after 2026. 2027 will be materially lower than 2026. And so this is why we are working on analyzing future possibilities, future opportunities that can appear in the market. On your question on active equipment and especially on Spain, I would say that it's not our sweet spot. So if you ask me, is this your sweet spot, my clear answer is no. We have the project in Poland. We are performing the project in Poland, I would say, fairly okay. Okay, in terms of how the project is going on, what are the returns, the relation with the client, et cetera. But what I can tell you is that contributing with material benefit to the client, we can do way more on the traditional perimeter than on the active component. Then, you know, every case is different. Today, a case in Spain is, I think, more a press rumor than a real case. So as of today, my answer is more no than yes. This is also something that is not so clear if it is a real case or a speculation. But I would say more than yes.
We can't hear you very well.
Can you speak a bit louder, please, Fernando? Can you hear me right now? Much better.
Okay, perfect. No, my point is the following. There is a debate that at which extent your current pop growth in colors is subdued by the fact that you are deploying the virtual subprograms. And in that sense, what should be, let's say, your base cases in terms of pop growth? It is the total pop growth that we are seeing today or just the colors when the virtual subprograms will be fading down.
The color that you see today is what we assume is going to be the rhythm of the collocation. And of course, if you see that the built-to-suit tend to reduce after 2027, we are going to push more on collocation. The point is we are looking to an important market share for new co-location. So what we are doing is... maintain or eventually even increase our market share and in order to do this our technical team is working with proactive models in order to co-design with our clients better coverage. This is something that if you want we can explore and explain better separately. OK. OK. Thanks, Michael. Thank you very much, Fernanda.
So moving on. Next question comes from James Ratsa at New Street.
Yes. Good morning. Thank you very much for taking the question. So I have two questions, please. So the first one is you're seeing some very encouraging growth in the kind of just organic co-location on your towers. I'd be really interested just to hear more precisely where you're seeing that demand coming. Is this in kind of urban hotspots? Is this rural areas? Are these transport links? You know, when you're speaking to the MNOs, where are you finding they're particularly seeing this demand for organic co-location growth? And then secondly, kind of bigger picture, Marco, Where do you see Cellmex's portfolio of assets going, let's say, over the next three to five years? I mean, you've announced here this morning another small disposal. I mean, how do you see yourself at some point ever going back into acquisition mode and growing the portfolio of the business? I'd just love to hear a bit more conceptually how you think about the strategic portfolio for the next five years. Thank you.
Yes, very clear, James. So on organic allocation, it's super interesting because when we go with my chief operating officer and we start looking at the detailed figures, we look at to our portfolio splitting between towers and rooftops and then urban, suburban, rural and deep rural. So the more you are tower and non super dense area, the more you have opportunity for colocation, which is good common sense. If I'm in the center of Paris, adding a colocation on an existing rooftop, It's not difficult technically. It's difficult urbanistically. So you don't get the permit. So co-location are most of all suburban. And suburban is the big road... and transportation corridors, even inside the cities, because these generate traffic congestion, data traffic congestion, not only car traffic congestion, but also data traffic congestion. And the rural. The rural is going to be a mix of colocation and run-sharing. the more you go in deep rural, the more we suggest to our client to be efficient. We are making this, for example, in Switzerland. We are telling to our client, share more because the industrial cost is for them, not for me, for them. The industrial cost make the investment having a better return. So The more you look at tower and the more you look at non-super dense urban area, the more you have opportunity for co-location. The more you are densifying dense urban areas, the more you have to think about more towers or eventually distributed small cell system or distributed antenna systems. I hope I made it clear, James. Yes, very interesting. Thank you. The second is, how do we see the portfolio medium to long-term? So, point number one, everything that is non-core, and you can easily understand the participation, we were limited partner in an investment fund. Hard for me to say that this is core. We had a commitment of further 50 million to be invested in the future. And we could repatriate with a nice return our old investment. So why not to rotate this asset? I think it was a relatively easy decision. We had a very good cooperation from the GP. The general partner cooperated with us very nicely. And so we made it. When you look at the, can Selenex be on the buy side? I would say for geographic expansion, I'm fairly categorical and say no. I don't see Selenex exit from markets and then re-entering new markets because of some. No, I don't see this. In terms of geography, I think pretty much okay. But if the MNO are claiming that there is too much fragmentation in their market, I would say the tower sector in some markets can say the same. In Spain, there are four tower players and three networks. In France, there are five tower operators. And if you count smaller ones, you can eventually even consider it more fragmented. So UK is the same. UK is pretty fragmented in terms of tower operators. Consolidation in market, consolidation in tower operator can make good synergies. The easy and evident one, I can manage more portfolio, more towers with less than proportional growth of people. This is the, let me say, the trivial one, the easy one. The most interesting ones is that when you put two portfolio together, you start realizing the real overlaps between portfolios and you can start decommissioning part of the portfolio, transfer to your client parts of the benefit. And this is what makes it very, very, very interesting. So this kind of consolidation is not there today because there is nothing there today. But if your question is how do I see it medium term, I think that this fragmentation, same as the MNO saying that it's inefficient, I can say that it's not particularly efficient even in the tower sector.
Interesting. Thank you, Mark. I appreciate all your thoughts there.
Thank you, James. Thank you.
Okay, so now moving on to Graham at Jeffers.
Yeah, thanks. I'll just stick to one if that's okay. And thank you for the question. Can I just ask a bit more on the reorganization that you announced that you took at the beginning of the year? Maybe if you could help us understand more about the characteristics of that business unit as to why it suits the cross-market leadership structure and what the challenges were that you're encountering before this that the new organization is looking to resolve. Thank you.
Thank you, thank you Graham. The reorganization was based on two main drivers. One is at corporate we need to be more efficient. And to be more efficient, we need to be more focused and more slim, if you want. And then we have to decide what we do and what possibly it's not absolutely necessary. So this is why we made our organization at the headquarter level leaner. Leaner means faster and means also it makes easier to make decisions. So this is why we reorganized the headquarters. When we were looking to the countries, we had some, let me say, some combination, geographic combination that were a little bit hazardous. So we had Portugal together with Poland instead of being together with Spain, which is honestly not very geographically natural. So we made some adjustments because it could make available some synergies that are not, you have not to imagine enormous synergies, but there can be some synergies. And the last, the most interesting part was what we call vertical solution. So today what happens is that if you take a large country, like let's take two large countries. One is Italy and one is France. In Italy, the non-tower co-business counts for a sort of 40 to 50 million. In France, it counts for less than five. Do you mean that the French market is 10 times smaller than the Italian market? Or do you think that with 40 to 50 million, we covered all the opportunities we had on the Italian market? The answer is no and no. But the problem was that sometimes each and every country is very specialized and very focused on the day-by-day, and sometimes some opportunities are simply not big enough, not priority enough, we are not specialized enough to make it possible. So the idea was, okay, we are all together. If I take all my countries, we are the number one in Europe, but we don't play as the number one. We play 10 times as a small operator, and we want to play one time as a big guy. But in order to do this, you have first to think big. If you think small, you remain small. So we need to think big, and in order to think big, I need to put all the volume together. And think central, act local is going to be the rule. So I think that, yes, like every matrix organization, there are challenges, but it can work well. Do we have an example? Yes, Selland. It was a lot of small initiatives, each of them small. Now we have Seland, and it's doing phenomenal. So let's try to capitalize on good experiences.
Super interesting. Thank you, Marco.
Okay, so now to spend the call. Our last question from Andrew at Goldman Sachs.
Yeah, good afternoon. I just wanted to... Just one question, just to dive in a bit more deeply into the Spanish densification reacceleration. You've obviously seen the equivalent POPs in Spain tick up, I think, as was mentioned in an earlier question. Could you just give us a bit more insight, because obviously this is a key metric for us to be thinking about as to whether consolidation is a good or bad thing for Talcos, and obviously consensus thinks it's a bad thing and you think it's a good thing. So we're obviously all looking for evidence of densification acceleration. If that's happening now, what exactly does that look like? So what will be the equivalent pop growth in Spain that you see in 2026 and 2027? Sorry, the company average or Celnex average is 3.7% equivalent pop growth in the fourth quarter. What does it look like in Spain with that growth acceleration that we're seeing from densification? Thank you.
Oh, you make my life a little bit difficult because you talk about equivalent POP and I talk about POP, no? So the concept of equivalent POP was a concept that has been used by Celnex some time ago in order to facilitate the exercise of saying equivalent POP time average price equal to revenues. The world doesn't work in equivalent pop nor in average price. So average is a bit of a tricky exercise because I'm eating an entire chicken, you eat zero, and we have half a chicken each. So it's not true when we see if you're hungry at the end or not. So the growth in Spain or what's happened in Spain is, point number one, Mass Orange had to take two networks, one built at Orange standards and the other built at Mass Mobile standards, which were, believe me, very different, and to create the Mass Orange network. So we had to... avoid duplications, we had to make new collocations, we had to build or we have to build new sites, all at the new standard, which is the mass orange standard, which is the orange standard. So top quality, top everything, carrier grade. top carrier grade so this is uh uh what happened in uh spain with mass orange which is uh first part of the year an accelerated decommissioner of pops some of them anchor in some of them second and then a progressive re-collocation of some of those uh of those antenna most of them anchor. Okay. On top of this, we are partner of Mass Orange in their rural deployment program, rural Spain program. And in the beginning of 2026, we are completing the delivery of this program. And this is the picture with the Mass Orange. So going forward, what is going to happen? It's gonna happen that they are working on improving, further improving the quality of their network. We're making available more co-location and we both committed that we will build for them some of the new installation that they need. Second, part of the decommissioned sites, that Mass Orange made available have been taken by Telefonica. Why? Because it was a good location. There was a space on the antenna, which was made available by eliminating one previous antenna. Telefonica considered it interesting. So this happened in the second part of 2025 and will continue progressively in 2026. Our relation with Telefonica is particularly good, as you saw with the battery program. And so we are discussing with them if we can make available more sites with them. In their case, we're talking about more co-location than built-to-suit. But it's a very healthy relation. With Telefonica... we agreed on the activation of the run sharing program that they have with Digi. It is a fairly big program. It started in the second part of 2025, I would say in the last part of 2025, and it will continue in 2026. uh why it took a little bit of time because we had not only to agree on a technical program but also we had to amend our original contract in order to make available for them the run sharing on our network that originally speaking was not considered. So we made an agreement. So this is another demonstration that when people say that every time there is to discuss about agreements, it's a fight. No, it's a discussion. It's a discussion between two adults. And this is going to continue. To be honest, our relation with Vodafone Zegona is not one of the largest business relations we have. So the fact that there is a little bit of noise around this is not affecting us particularly. Of course, if we can support Zegona and Vodafone in their network needs, uh more than happy as of today it has been relatively small but of course if they need we do what we see more we see more densification coming this is something we absolutely see we see more densification coming in in spain and the big question mark is if dg someday will deploy not only but also some proprietary network. They did in other countries. As of today, it's not in the plans, at least in the plans shared with us, but you never know. I hope I answered, Andrew.
Yeah, no, thank you for your color marker. I guess the reason why you're using equivalent POPs was just because it has a more direct correlation with actual revenue growth, whereas POPs these days... I don't so much. And really what we're trying to ask is, is revenue growth going to accelerate? What's the revenue growth in Spain post-consolidation, post the rebalancing of 2025? That's the real question. It sounds like you're not able, you can't answer that today, but I guess that's what we're really looking for.
Well, what I can answer is that 2025 has been a little bit better than what we expected. So let's take the small positives. Thank you.
That's very fair. Okay. Well, thank you, everyone. It's been a long call, very productive, I think. Thank you for your continued support. And as usual, the full team is available for following up if you have any additional questions. Thank you very much.