Coloplast As Sp/Adr

Thank you very much, operator. Good morning, and welcome to our full year 23-24 conference call. I am Christian Willemsen, the CEO of Coloplast, and I'm joined by our CFO, Anas Learning Skoko, and our investor relations team. We'll start with a short presentation by Anders and myself, and then open up for questions as we usually do. Please turn to slide number three. We delivered 8% organic growth and a reported EBIT margin before special items of 27% for the 23-24 financial year. Return on invested capital after tax and before special items was 15%, reflecting impact from the acquisition of Kerasys. This year, we continue to help millions of people with intimate healthcare needs, and we also welcome more than 270,000 new users to our support program, Coloplast Care. In our fourth quarter, we delivered organic growth of 8% and a reported EBIT margin before special items of 26%. Anders will take you through the details later, but the EBIT margin in the quarter reflects significant negative impact from extraordinary costs, as well as negative impact from currencies. The EBIT margin run rate going into the 24-25 financial year is 27%. I'm satisfied with this year's organic growth of 8%. which reflects continued market share gains and a strong year in our chronic care businesses in Europe and emerging markets. Our two smaller businesses, Voice and Respiratory Care and Advanced Mooncare, both grew double-digit. Care Assist delivered growth of around 35% in line with our plan and with continued strong reception of the fish skin technology in the U.S.-centric biologics market. This was also a year of launches. with a significant number of new products being launched in our chronic care businesses and advanced wound care, and I'll get back to this in more detail later. We have a lot to be proud of this year, but we also encountered some significant challenges. The establishment of the new distribution center for the U.S. market has led to supply disruptions and extraordinary costs, impacting both our customers and financial performance, mostly in chronic care. The situation is now largely resolved, and we're able to meet the demand in the market, but we continue to operate at a lower efficiency level, and we expect operational efficiency to be fully normalized by the end of the first half of the 24-25 financial year. Our interventional urology business grew below expectations, impacted by competitive pressure, and while the business is expected to remain the lower growth ambition short-term, We are confident that we can return to high single-digit growth beyond the strategic period supported by the anticipated entry in the overactive bladder market within Tibia in the 25-26 financial year. Now let's look at some of the key highlights from our STRIVE25 strategy. Please turn to slide number four. First, let me talk a bit to growth. With our STRIVE25 strategy, we set out to add long-term growth and value creation options to our portfolio through M&A. We made three significant investments in the first half of the strategic period with the acquisitions of Atos Medical, Kerasys, and Intivia. We are now almost three years into the acquisition of Atos Medical, and I'm satisfied that both performance and integration of the business have progressed in line with our expectations. We also continue to see a significant white space opportunity with many people either not having access to the products or using significantly less products than optimal. I've said many times that ATOS Medical is a business that shares the same characteristics as our ostomy and continence care businesses. It uses the same growth model of great products, long-term partnerships with clinicians, and a strong direct-to-consumer engine and as such represents a significant long-term growth and value creation opportunity, much like our ostomy incontinence businesses have been for decades. With Kerasys, we acquired a highly differentiated technology based on fish skin. We aim to build a category leader in the biologics market with this acquisition. Kerasys gives us an opportunity to transform the value creation from our advanced wound care business and turn it into a strong contributor to the group. To support Keras's growth trajectory and continued market share gains, we have a strong focus on strengthening the body of clinical evidence that documents the performance of the Fishkin technology. Recently, we published the results of a new randomized controlled trial that we call ODIN. The ODIN study is the largest Keras's study to date, with 255 patients showing superior healing of severe diabetic foot ulcers treated with Kerasys fish skin compared to the standard of care. We will use the study results to continue expanding coverage in the U.S., and we have also submitted the study for consideration in the local coverage determination process. We continue to expect the final LCD policy to be published by the end of 2024. Next, let me talk a bit to innovation. is a year with several significant product launches that will support growth during STRIVE25 and beyond. With LUJA, our new intermittent catheter with a unique micro-hole zone technology, we're setting a new standard in the category by addressing key risk factors related to urinary tract infections, which remain a significant challenge for users. We're already seeing significant contribution to growth incontinence care from the male Lugia catheter and the launch of the female catheter is ongoing. The product is currently available in five markets where it's received very positive customer feedback. In ultimate care, we strengthened our main growth driver, the Sensura Mio portfolio with three new strategic product expansions in 2024. We also launched Halo, our digital leakage notification device in the UK where the product received national reimbursement earlier this year. and work to obtain reimbursement in Germany is ongoing, but it's been delayed, and we now expect launch of Halo in Germany in the second half of 2025. In advanced wound dressings, we launched biotane silicone fit, a new silicone dressing for the U.S. market with the aim to increase our presence in this key geography, where today we have a limited position. Now let me zoom in on operational efficiency. We're making good progress on the diversification of our manufacturing footprint. The ramp-up of Costa Rica continued during the year, and Costa Rica now accounts for 13% of produced volumes, almost double last year. The establishment of our new manufacturing site in Portugal is on track, and the site is expected to be operational in 2026. The site in Portugal will be the largest site for coal plants to date at around 30,000 square meters. The sites in Costa Rica and Portugal removed the need for additional factories until the 2930 financial year. Finally, on our sustainability initiatives, we continue to make good progress on our recycling efforts where we are ahead of our 2025 ambition, with 77% of our production waste now recycled. In addition, we reduced our Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 27%, from the base year 18-19, mostly driven by efficiency improvements and the phase-out of natural gas. Let's look at today's results in more details. Please turn to slide number five. In ostomy care, organic growth was 7% for the full year, and growth in Danish Kona was 6%. Organic growth in Q4 was 6%, and growth in Danish Kona was 7%. Our Sensura Mu portfolio continues to be the main growth driver, followed by the Bravo range of supporting products. Our Sensura and Asura alternative portfolios continue to post solid growth in emerging markets. From a geographical perspective, all regions contributed to growth in Q4. The U.S. posted double-digit growth and benefited from the resolution of the supply disruptions related to the establishment of the new distribution center, which emerged in Q3. Growth in emerging markets was held back by a high baseline last year, most notably in China, which had a neutral impact on growth in the quarter. In Continence Care, organic growth was 8% for the full year and growth in Danish Kona was 7%. In Q4, organic growth was 10% and growth in Danish Kona was 12%. Growth in the quarter was driven by good contribution from all segments with intermittent catheters in the SpeedyCath portfolio as the main growth contributors. The new Lugia intermittent catheter also made a strong contribution to growth in Q4, showing an acceleration compared to Q3. Growth in our bowel care business was driven by Peristein Plus in Europe and the U.S. Our collecting devices also made a solid contribution to growth in the quarter from a lower baseline last year. From a geographical perspective, growth was broad-based across regions. The U.S. made a solid contribution to growth and benefited from the resolution of the supply disruptions related to the establishment of the new distribution center. Markets where reimbursement has been recently established or improved, such as Poland, continued to perform well and grew double-digit. Voice and Respiratory Care posted 11% organic growth for the full year with growth in Danish Krona of 9%. In Q4, organic growth was 12% and growth in Danish Krona was 10%. Reported revenue includes negative impact from product rationalization of 1% in the full year and 2% in Q4. This strong performance in voice and respiratory care continues to be driven by thought-based contributions from both laryngectomy and tracheostomy, both of which grew at a double-digit rate in Q4. In laryngectomy, growth was driven by an increase in the number of patients served in existing and new markets, as well as an increase in patient value driven by the Provox life. portfolio. Growth in tracheostomy in the quarter was driven by continued solid demand and positive impact from forward integration. From a geographical perspective, all regions contributed to growth led by Europe and the U.S. In advanced wound care, organic growth was 10% for the full year and growth in Danish corona was 40%. Organic growth in Q4 was 10% and growth in Danish corona was 33%. Reported growth for the year includes 11 months inorganic impact, from the acquisition of Kerasys. Growth in advanced wound care in Q4 was driven by a strong quarter in skin care and one month organic contribution from Kerasys partly upset by lower growth in advanced wound dressings. The advanced wound dressings business grew 8% organically in the full year and 4% in Q4. Growth in the quarter included impact from a higher baseline last year and from order phasing in Germany. From a product perspective, the biotin silicone portfolio was the main growth contributor while from a geographical perspective, growth was broad-based, excluding Germany. Revenue from Kerasys amounted to around 1 billion Danish kroner in the full year, of which 296 million Danish kroner in Q4. The underlying revenue growth was around 35% in both periods. The inpatient channel and surgical wounds were the main growth contributors. Kerasys' operating profit margin, excluding PPA amortization, was around 10% in both periods. in line with our expectations. In interventional urology, organic growth was 5% for the full year and growth in Danish krona was 4%. In Q4, organic growth was 7% and reported growth in Danish krona was 6%. The men's health and endourology businesses were the main growth contributors in the quarter. Growth in the quarter also benefited from women's health, which returned to growth from a lower baseline in Q4 last year. and from the backwater situation in bladder health and surgery, which was stabilized in Q4. From a geographical perspective, the U.S. was the main growth contributor in Q4. And with this, I will now hand over to Anders, who will take you through the financials and outlook in more detail. Please turn to slide number six.

Thank you, Christian, and good morning, everyone. Reported revenue for the full year increased by 2.5 billion Danish kroner, or 10%, compared to last year. Organic growth contributed 1.9 billion Danish kroner, or around 8%, to reported revenue. Acquired revenue from the kerosene acquisition contributed with 918 million Danish kroner to reported revenue in the full year, reflecting 11 months of inorganic impact. Acquired revenue contributed around 4% to reported revenue in the full year. One exchange rate had a negative impact of 260 million Danish kroner on reported revenue, or around 1%, related to the depreciation of the U.S. dollar, Japanese yuan, and a basket of emerging markets currencies, most notably Argentinian peso, against the Danish kroner. Please turn to slide number seven. Gross profit for the full year amounted to 18.3 billion Danish kroner, corresponding to a gross margin of 68% compared to 67% last year. The gross margin was positively impacted by the inclusion of chaoses, which contributed 100 basis points. In addition, favorably developing input costs, price increases, and the baseline benefit of around 40 basis points from the Italian payback reform also had a positive impact on the gross margin. The positive development in the above-mentioned factors was partly offset by double-digit wage inflation in Hungary and ramp-up costs at our manufacturing sites in Costa Rica. The gross margin also included significant negative impact from currencies of around 80 basis points. Operating expenses for the full year amounted to around 11 billion Danish kroner. The like-for-like increase in operating expenses excluding inorganic impact from currencies was 619 million Danish kroner or 7% compared to last year. Operating expenses developed largely in line with expectations with the exception of the extraordinary cost related to the establishment of the new distribution center in the U.S. Keros has contributed with 990 million Danish kroner to operating expenses in the year, of which 102 million Danish kroner were related to the PPA amortization included under distribution costs. The distribution to sales ratio for the full year was 33% compared to 31% last year. and includes impact from Kerasys and related PPA amortization costs. Distribution costs also include around 60 million Danish kroner in extraordinary costs related to the new US distribution center impacting the second half of the year. The admin to sales ratio for the full year was 5% on par with last year, primarily impacted by the inclusion of Kerasys. The R&D to sales ratio for the full year was 3% of sales compared to 4% last year. Overall, this resulted in an operating profit before special items of 7.3 billion Danish kroner in the full year, and a 6% increase compared to last year. The EBIT margin before special items for the year was 27% compared to 28% last year. The EBIT margin included negative impact of around 100 basis points from the inclusion of kerosene, including PBA amortization costs. Currencies also had a negative impact on the reported EBIT margin of around 80%, basis points, mostly related to the depreciation of the U.S. dollar and the basket of emerging market currencies against the Danish kroner. Let me also put a few words to our EBIT margin development in the fourth quarter. We delivered an EBIT margin before special items of 26%, a result that was below our expectations and impacted by extraordinary costs and currencies. Our fourth quarter included 45 million Danish kroner in extraordinary cost related to the U.S. distribution center, which was higher than my early expectations of around 35 million Danish kroner. We also had a one-off write-down of assets of around 25 million Danish kroner, impacting other operating expenses. Finally, currencies also put more pressure on the margin than initial estimates based on the spot rates from August. I expect the extraordinary cost to gradually diminish as we move into the new financial year, and I expect an improvement in our EBIT margin already in the first quarter of 2024-2025 compared to Q4. I'll get back to this on the next slide. Financial items in the full year were at a net expense of 925 million Danish kroner compared to a net expense of 746 million Danish kroner last year, driven mostly by interest expenses related to the financing of the AdSense medical acquisition. The tax expense in the full year was 1.3 billion Danish kroner with a tax rate of 21% on par with last year which includes positive impact from the transfer of AdSense medical intellectual property. The tax rate for the year was better than our previous expectations of around 22% due to mix of currencies. As a result, net profit before special items for the full year increased by 4% compared to last year. Diluted earnings per share before special items decreased by 1% to 22.34 Danish kroner. Please turn to slide 8. Operating cash flow for the full year was an inflow of 2.8 billion Danish kroner compared to an inflow of 4.2 billion Danish kroner last year. The development in cash flows... was driven by a higher income tax paid in the second quarter related to the AdSense Medical Intellectual Property Transfer, with a net negative impact of 2.5 billion Danish kroner. The tax payment will be offset by reduced tax payments in the following years, starting from full year 2023-2024. The tax payment was only partly offset by an increase in operating profits. Cash flow from investing activities was an outflow of 1.3 billion Danish kroner compared to an outflow of 9 billion Danish kroner last year, impacted by the acquisition of Kerasys. CapEx for the full year amounted to around 5% of sales, on par with last year. As a result, the free cash flow for the full year was an inflow of 1.4 billion Danish kroner compared to an outflow of 4.7 billion Danish kroner last year, excluding impact from extraordinary tax payments of 2.5 billion Danish kroner In Q2, the adjusted free cash flow for the year was an inflow of 3.9 billion Danish kroner. The trailing 12-month cash conversion was 81%. And networking capital amounted to around 25% of sales compared to 26% of sales last year driven by positive development in our inventories. Now let's look at the guidance for 24-25 financial year. Please turn to slide 9. For the 24-25 financial year, we expect organic revenue growth of 8-9% and an EBIT margin before special items of around 28%. Reported revenue growth in Danish kroner is expected to be around 8-9% with neutral impact from currencies. The organic revenue growth guidance assumes continued good momentum and stable supply and distribution of products across the company. Growth across businesses and geographies is expected to be largely in line with our STRIVE25 assumptions, with the exception of our China chronic business and interventional urology. The chronic business in China and interventional urology businesses are both expected to grow at a mid-single-digit rate. Chaos is expected to continue its strong growth trajectory and contribute around one percentage point to group organic growth. This assumes that kerosene will remain on the covered list of products in the final LCD policy. We have no current knowledge of significant healthcare reforms, and we expect positive pricing impact in 2024-25, however, at a lower level compared to last year. The gross margin in 2024-25 is expected to be around 68% and improve compared to last year, driven by easing of inflationary pressure across input cost categories. In our biggest cost of goods sold category, raw materials, we expect flat development in prices year over year. Value adjustments in Hungary are expected to be around mid-single digit compared to around double digit last year. Electricity prices in Hungary, where we manufacture around 70% of our volumes, are hedged at around €100 per MWh compared to an average price of around €150 per MWh in 2023-2024. The positive development from the low inflation across input costs is expected to be partly offset by ramp-up activities in Costa Rica and Portugal. The EBIT margin guidance before special items assumes prudent management of operating costs expected to grow below reported revenue in Danish kroner. The EBIT margin assumption also includes positive impact of around 30 basis points related to initiatives to improve profitability in our advanced wound care business. excluding kerosene. The scope of the initiatives will be finalized in our first quarter with the expected full impact from Q2. For kerosene, we expect a year with improved profitability. However, the negative impact on the group is expected to remain at around 100 basis points. The negative impact from the establishment of the U.S. distribution center is expected to gradually come down by the end of first half of 24-25 with lower impact compared to 23-24. Parentheses are expected to have a neutral impact on the EBIT margin. In terms of phasing, we expect organic growth to be in the guidance range during the year. On the EBIT margin, we expect to start the year with an EBIT margin of above 27% in the first quarter, and then the EBIT margin is expected to gradually increase from here over the year. For 23-24, I expect around 130 million Danish kroner in special items, mostly related to the ongoing integration of ATSOS Medical and the above-mentioned initiative to improve profitability in advanced wound care. The net financial expenses for 24-25 are expected at around minus 750 million Danish kroner, mostly related to interest expenses from the financing of ATSOS Medical. Our effective Tax rate for 24-25 is expected to be around 22%, but our long-term expectations for our tax rate of around 23% are unchanged. CapEx is expected to be around 1.4 billion Danish kroner and includes investments related to the establishment of our new manufacturing site in Portugal. On networking capital, I expect a networking capital to sales ratio in 24-25 in line with our long-term term expectations of around 24 percent. With this, I hand it over to Christian for final remarks. Please turn to slide number 10.

Today, we announced that the Board of Directors have decided to expand our Coal Plastic Executive Leadership Team with immediate effect. We're now entering the final year of our STRIVE25 strategy. In this strategic period, we've made significant investments to expand the reach of the company and build fork world platforms to drive value creation in the years to come. The decision to expand the cold blast ELT was made to reflect this. Our upcoming 2030 strategy will be focused on unfolding the potential of our chronic care, abortion respiratory care, advanced wound care, and interventional urology businesses to deliver profitable growth. This is the task in front of the new ELT, and the new strategy will be communicated in the late summer of 2025. In the new setup, the Chronic Care Commercial and Innovation Organization will be gathered under one leader, Nikolai Poul, who is now Executive Vice President of Chronic Care. Paul Markin, previously leading our Chronic Care Commercial Organization, has decided to retire after a successful tenure at Coldplast. I'd like to take this opportunity to thank Paul for his commitment to our company throughout the last decade. He's been instrumental in delivering our STRIVE25 strategy and a valuable member of the ELT. The new ELT will include two new members, Kaulina Warnhoff-Holstenstern, leading voice in respiratory care, and Tommy Johns, leading interventional urology. Caroline and Tommy are both respected and experienced Gold Plus leaders, each in charge of one of our important gold platforms. In this strategic period, we've also invested into becoming a bigger player in advanced wound care in both dressings and biologics. There's a lot going on in both businesses. In our advanced wound dressings business, we're focused on significantly improving profitability. With Care Assist, we're focused on delivering year two of our commercial plan and integrating the business onto Cold Blast's IT infrastructure. As a consequence, our advanced wound care business will be represented in the ELT once we've successfully concluded the ongoing work. And for now, both businesses will continue to report directly to me. With this, I'd like to welcome the new members of the ELT and congratulate those that have a new responsibility. I look forward to starting the work on the 2030 strategy here in the autumn and unfolding the potential of our business to deliver on our long-term guidance of 8% to 10% organic growth and an average margin of above 30%. Finally, I'd like to say thank you to our more than 16,000 employees at Coal Plus for their continued commitment and hard work this year. I'd also like to thank our users, our clinician partners, and investors for their confidence in our company. Thank you very much. Operator, we are now ready to take questions.

We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their telephone. You will hear a tone to confirm that you've entered the queue. For questions, please press star and one at this time. The first question comes from Hassan Al-Waqil from Barclays. Please go ahead.

Hi, good morning, and thank you for taking my questions. I have three, please. So firstly, can you talk about the stronger interventional urology business and women's health returning to growth in the quarters and the drivers beyond easing comps? What was the decline in slings for the full year? Is low double-digit decline a reasonable assumption? And did this improve in Q4? And how are you thinking about the level of decline within the slings business in 2020?

Hassan, this sounds like a lot more than three questions. That's just the first.

That's the first. Should we take that and then we'll go in turn?

Yeah, so we're pleased to see the 7% from interventional urology in Q4. Women's health, in particular, just negative full year growth in Q4. I think partly we had favorable comps. That was a lower baseline, to be fair. I am not expecting the competitive pressure to abate. I'm expecting it to continue into 24, 25, and the expectation that you should have for the IU business going into next year should be mid-single digits.

And within that, are you able to comment on the decline in slings? Is low double-digit a reasonable assumption on my part?

So we're not commenting on the different product groups within women's health. You should have a base assumption for the total franchise of mid-single digits.

Fair enough. And then secondly, other companies in the space have talked about a deterioration of consumer sentiment in China this quarter. Appreciate you've had a soft China for some time, but are things getting worse? What is the trend in basket sizes and expectations for this into next year?

Yep, that's it. Yep. Good question. So I'm... I'm not seeing significant changes in the China business. We've delivered mid-single-digit this year. We're expecting mid-single-digit also into next year. If I look at the patient inflow to the business, it's stable and healthy. The challenge really is in the consumer channel. I'm not really seeing any improvement like I've commented on in previous quarters. I'll get more optimistic when I can see it in the basket sizes and the product mix. So for now, we are assuming no real change compared to this year and mid-single-digit growth from China next year, but not a deterioration.

And then thirdly and finally, on margin guidance for next year, can you talk us through the confidence in driving 100 bps of margin expansion over the full-year level of 27%, particularly given the lower jump-off point in Q4 of 26%? Thank you.

Yeah, so hello, Hassan. It's Sandeshit. Let me take that one. So we are guiding an EBIT margin of around 28% in 24-25. We are expecting improvements in our gross margin. So the gross margin, I'm expecting that to sit around 68. It's basically driven by lower pressure on input costs. We are running a program to improve our wound care profitability. and we expect that to contribute around 30 basis points on our group EBIT margin. And then we are expecting Keras's underlying EBIT margin to improve, and we're also expecting the underlying cost for the whole group to increase at a lower level than the top line. And then finally, FX, or foreign exchange rates, I'm expecting a neutral impact. So those are some of the main drivers for us delivering an EBIT margin of around 28% for 24, 25.

Perfect. Very helpful. Thank you.

The next question comes from Jack Reynolds-Clark, RBC. Please go ahead.

Hi there. Thanks for taking the questions. I just had two, please. So just on the write-downs, could you comment on whether this is different from the write-downs you announced earlier in the year. And I also think you mentioned that write-downs earlier in the year wouldn't be going through the P&L. So what's changed here? And then just on Halo, could you comment on how the launch is going in the UK and what the feedback is from the German authorities and what drove the delay in the launch there? Thanks.

So, hello, Jack. Let me take the first one around the write-downs. Yes, we had some write-downs of some assets that we included here in our fourth quarter as part of our operating expenses. So it's just some machines that we have written down. Christian?

On to your question on Halo, Jack. So we're now saying that launch in Germany is expected to be the second half of 2025. The delay is really due to data requests from the authorities and the ongoing dialogue that we have with them. I'm reluctant to share details around it just for competitive reasons, but I am confident that based on this dialogue that we've got something here and that we are going to launch and that the product will be reimbursed. To your question on impact in the UK, we are following plan. Remember, this is a new type of product, and so we are expecting a slow ramp. We are hand-holding this launch and doing lots of work also with local payers to basically pave access for Halo. You should assume no significant contribution in STRIVE25. It will only be following that.

That is clear, thanks very much. Just following up on the write-down piece, I think I misspoke there. What I meant was around the reduction in the deferred consideration from the carers' acquisition. Yes, apologies.

Sorry, I misunderstood you then. Yes, so as you might recall, we agreed with the owners of carers' on an earn-out. and we reduced part of that earn out after the first six months and then after the full year we have evaluated the final part of the earn out and as it is after the first 12 months in our ownership it's going into our P&L so we reversed that and it's part of our special items.

Okay, thanks very much. Okay, thanks.

The next question It comes from Martin Parker, SIB. Please go ahead.

Yes, Martin Parker, SIB. Also two questions from my side. Speaking to new innovation, the Lucia, I just wanted to understand, you mentioned in the report that it had a significant contribution to growth in continuous care in the quarter. If we look at the data from the UK market, where it has not so far at least led to an expansion of your overall catheter market share in the UK, of course also coming from a very high base. But what have you seen on your overall catheter market share in other markets where Lutja has been available? And then second question, just on the 130 million special items in 2024-2025, You know, now it's year number four where you will book sales for ATOS and you are still doing integration. At least from my side, it is taking so much more longer than I had anticipated going into when you first acquired this business. So what is it exactly that you are still integrating in year four? And then, you know, on the advanced Woonker X Kerasys, one of you also now are taking, what will the return be compared to what the one-off cost that you will see in the current fiscal year?

Thanks, Martin. Why don't I get started with Luja? Just as a macro observation on the launch, it's the strongest launch we've done in continent scare ever. So if I look at the uptake per market, I look at the launch plans and how much ahead we are. I look at the cannibalization rates. It is doing very well. Of course, remember, this is a chronic category. So the category turns over many years. But we are gaining good momentum. The full year growth of 8% is a testament to Luja basically contributing more. And in Q4, it's contributed more than it did in Q3. So it's a gradual accelerator, just like we have expected it to be. It's also now we just have a mail product in the marketplace. The female rollout, we're in the relative early stages of that. We're in a handful of markets with female. Female is also getting good traction. I'm seeing the same pattern in the launch curves and the same pattern in the cannibalization rates. So overall, we are positive. And I'm expecting this brand and this platform to allow us to take share in the category and help expand the category. And I am looking at a, just if I look, I'd say a good proxy is always to look at a 12-month trend, and here, definitely positive.

Yeah. So, Martin, let me take the second question around the special items. The special items include, as I said earlier, ATOS integration and then our wound care profitability plan. And in terms of ATOS, we are now moving into the third and final phase of the integration. We are actually just about to go live with the integration in Germany, and that also includes utilization of our business center in Poland, merging of warehouses, et cetera. And the final phase of the integration, that's some of the main European markets, and that will continue during this financial year. And then we are looking at our wound care profitability. And we are, in this quarter, working through that. And that will also drive, you can say, restructuring costs. And I have included that in the special items as well. You should expect, when we move into 2025-2026, that the level of special items will decrease significantly. That's my assumptions.

And how much this one-off charges you're taking in wound care, how much would that benefit on your margins on the other side? Because I guess you are expecting a return.

Yeah, so what I said in my opening, we are expecting that the wound care plan will contribute around 30 basis points on our group margin. So that's included in the margin guidance of around 28%.

Thank you.

The next question comes from Julia Delmoine from Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Hi. Good morning, Christian. Good morning, Anders. Thanks for taking my questions. I have three, please. The first one relates to Kerasys. Based on your guidance for this fiscal year, I think you are guiding to something like 25% growth for the product, which is obviously deceleration versus the 35% you posted last year. So just wondering whether this is a cautious assumption ahead of the uncertainty stemming from the final LCD or just a normal process because the product has gotten bigger and obviously a need to see some deceleration in the underlying growth. Second question relates to the changes on the leadership team you announced this morning. Surprisingly, there is only the advanced wound care business that is not represented on the ELT at this point. You have said that you wait for further integration before doing so. So just curious on how you envisage the integration and the two businesses between Kerasys and Wooncare working more closely going forward. And the very last question, and sorry if I missed the details on that one, but the one of costs from the U.S. distribution center, I missed the H1 impact that you're expecting versus the H2 impact that you just had.

Thank you, Julian. Good questions. On Kerasis, our guidance is for a 30% growth CAGR. We're confident about that. We're off to a good start trading here in October, strong. So I'm expecting another strong year and feel confident about the growth guidance. The guidance for group growth, of course, when we say 8 to 9, it does reflect the uncertainty related to LCD. I remain confident that we will get on LCD. But in the event that that decision goes against us, we will be at the lower end of the growth guidance. But the business is trading well, doing well. We're expecting another strong year. To your question on advanced wound care, correct. For now, we're not. These businesses will continue to report to me directly. We have quite a bit of integration work happening with Kerasys, a super important year two of the business plan. And like Anders talked to earlier, we're in the middle of a significant margin expansion program for the wound care business. Once that's done, I envisage that the advanced wound care business will also be on the ELT and exactly how that's going to look. I'll be clear about that when we announce it.

And then the final question related to the cost for the U.S. distribution. So as we talked about earlier, we included last year around $60 million in extra cost, and I expect we will run with some extra cost here in Q1 and Q2 at the level of $30 million extra. That's my assumption, and then we will have a normalized situation from Q3 and onwards.

Thank you very much. Just as a follow-up, the 30 million, is that in both Q1 and Q2, or is that the amount for H1?

That's my assumption for H1.

Okay. Thank you very much.

The next question comes from Aizia Noor from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. My first one is similar to the one prior, so on the new executive leadership team. So what triggered this expansion of the team, and could you elaborate some of the near-term strategic priorities for the newly appointed members? And then my second question, also kind of a follow-up to a previous question, do you have a sense of how prescription behaviors are trending today? in anticipation of the LCD outcome, i.e., are clinicians holding back from starting new patients on any excluded products ahead of this LCD taking effect, or are you seeing any shift in market dynamics, you know, marketing from your competitors, et cetera? Thank you.

Thank you for your question, Ayesha. So the change is really reflecting the big movement that we have begun with Coloplast toward building four growth platforms. We are coming to the end of the STRIVE-25 period. We are commencing the new strategy work. And so we feel it's natural at this stage that we also reflect that strategic direction. I already commented on the timing related to advanced wound care, so that will also be reflected in the structure. It's just not now. To your question on what will be priorities, it's very much around unfolding the, if you will, the potential needs of the platforms. So for ATOS, it is delivering the growth plan that we have for the business. On URADI, it will be very much about the entry into the overactive bladder segment. And, of course, for wound care, the core growth driver in the coming strategic period will be the Kerasys platform. So... All good, but reflecting the end, the near term end of the strategic period and the beginning of the strategy work for the next period. To your question on prescription behavior, it doesn't really, we're not really seeing material impact. We are anecdotally, there are some customers that are reluctant to initiate, but for the customers that we're already serving in the community setting, we're really not seeing impact. Just to remind everybody on LCD and the scope of it, it is roughly 20% of our sales that could be impacted by this. We are still confident that the final policy will include our products, and we are still expecting to get a final policy at the end of this calendar year, but... So far, as you know, there's no conclusion. I hope that answers your questions. It does. Thank you so much.

The next question comes from Oliver Metzger. Odo, please go ahead.

Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. The first one is on your organic growth guidance. So now QRIS is included, and you saw recently even a notch higher organic growth what you said, your midterm guidance stands at 8-10% and basically now your 24-25 guidance is in the lower half. So is it fair to assume Oliver, you're dropping out.

Sorry, we lost the participant. We'll go with the next one. Matthias Hegblom, Handelsbanken. Please go ahead.

so much for taking my questions i have two please so it wasn't fully clear to me for the rationale behind the reversion of the remaining earn out consideration in connection with the characters transaction so is growth no longer expected to be at the pace it previously was expected to be at or is profitability not expected to improve at the previous anticipated pace what's the what's changed i guess is the question and then secondly on the net financial cost, which came in at a significantly higher level than anticipated, partly driven by a negative impact from FX. Can we quantify that impact to tease out the underlying pace? Thanks so much.

Yeah, so Mathias, let me take your two questions. So thanks. So when we decided on the acquisition of Kerasys, we also agreed with the owners on an earn-out. And that earn out was based on management case that was significantly higher in terms of especially growth and margin. And throughout our 23-24 we have evaluated those KPIs versus the underlying momentum. And we reduced the earn out as part of the goodwill after the first six months. And here at the full year we evaluated again and here we reduced the remaining earn out. And that went into special items in our P&L. So that's the background for the earn-out reduction. And then the other question related to our financial items. So the majority of our financial items, that is related to interest expenses in relation with the debt we have after the ATOS acquisition. And it also includes FX and balance sheet items, especially coming from the Argentinian peso in our first quarter of last year. And when I look into the coming year, I'm looking at financial expenses in the level of around 750 million Danish kroner, and it's primarily related to interest rate expenses related to the debt. So that's my assumption for 24-25. I hope that answers your question.

Yeah, sure. That is very helpful. Just one quick follow-up or point of clarification possibly. So I'm looking at the company compiled consensus for net financial for the fourth quarter. It was 224 in the fourth quarter, and it came out significantly above. So there is nothing you want to call out that was extraordinary in the fourth quarter that helped us understand the underlying pace.

There was in the fourth quarter more a negative impact from especially the U.S. dollar. That impacted us more than I expected when I gave the, you can say, the soft view mid-August.

That's very clear. Thanks so much.

We have, again, Mr. Metzger in line, so please go ahead, Oliver.

Hi, good morning. I apologize for being disrupted. So my first question is on your organic growth guidance. Now CoRace is included and you have seen at least a better recent performance than initially planned. Your midterm guidance stands at 8 to 10 percent and the 24, 25 guidance basically in the lower half. So is it fair to assume that It's primarily the digital growth in China and the more challenging situation, women's health, which hold back your current performance, not of being a notch higher compared to midterm guidance, or have I missed any meaningful moving part? The second question is just an understanding question. You reported 4% organic growth for advanced wound dressings. Does this number include any contribution from crisis, or is this rate linked to only dressings in isolation? That's from my side. Thank you.

Well, thanks, Matthias. I mean, so really when you think of China and IU in this equation, of course, I mean, they are a drag on group growth, but they also were in the year that we just closed. So the 8 to 9 guidance, essentially, the lower end of that reflects the event where we don't get on LCD. I am expecting the group to accelerate compared to this year. as we get full impact from Kerasys. But the lower end would reflect the event that we don't get back on LCD. To your question on advanced wound care, the number that you see basically is just dressings. And remember that there was a bit of phasing in the dressings business. We had a very strong Q3. We had price hikes in Germany in Q3, which led to higher demand in Q3 at a bit of expense of Q4. If you just look at the full year, the business has done well. And so the advanced wound care number for the year includes – Just one month of impact from Kerasus.

Okay, that's helpful. Thank you.

The next question comes from Doyle Graham from UBS. Please go ahead.

Morning, guys. Thank you for taking my question. It's just one for me. Just when we look at the guidance, I'm kind of thinking of the assumptions that are put in there. So it sounds like the margin is probably more back-end loaded. You've got China returning to modest growth, and then the LCD is included within that as well. So I'm sort of thinking more, where do you think those are the potential headwinds for me? And given where we are today, but where do you think the kind of upsides are in this guidance? So where do you feel maybe you've been quite cautious and there could be some upside to that numbers? Thank you.

So I think the items you listed are dragged to group growth right now are China chronic. It is the interventional urology business primarily. And then, of course, on the positive side, we've got momentum from Europe and the impact of innovation on the growth in Europe. It is a carousel in Europe. In an event where we do get on LCD in a favorable manner where that list is reduced, you could expect that that could have a positive impact on performance. And then, of course, I am expecting the U.S. business to return to stronger growth in this year as we get fully out of the distribution issues that we've had. But exactly how that pans out, we've lost some customers in this process. On the other hand, we're launching a number of new products. but we feel confident that the business will accelerate compared to this year. So on the accelerator side, it really is a story of innovation, the return growth profile for U.S. and Kerasys.

Maybe just a follow-up on Kerasys then. The 35% growth pretty much every quarter, it seems like clockwork. What's the visibility in this business and why? How much of your guidance for next year relies on the LCD coming through?

Well, so you could say the math works that if you continue at the same growth level, of course, Kerasys will add a growth point to the group. The lower end of the guidance that we have for next year reflects a decision where Coloplast is not admitted to LCD and we have 20% exposure of total Kerasys revenue. So we have it in there to basically be able to, if you will, stomach that event. I'll reiterate, I am confident that we're going to be on the final policy, but I don't know exactly how that final policy is going to work out. There's a reasonable visibility in the business. We run weekly revenue calls on the business. We understand the commercial activity requirements. down to the rep level and run good visibility on the sales pipeline. So I'd say relatively good visibility.

Thank you very much. Appreciate it.

The next question comes from from Citi. Please go ahead.

Hey, good morning, guys. One question on Luja Female. What key markets have it not been launched so far? And also in the five markets where it was already launched, how did you find the trajectory of launch compared to the male products? And what kind of pricing premium have you managed to secure on these female products? Thank you.

So there are a number of very significant markets that still need to get Luja Female. Some of the some of the large markets in the portfolio, UK, US, Germany. And if you think of premiums on the product, you should assume mid-single-digit premiums compared to the product that it replaces. The five markets where it's already launched, we're ahead of plan, ahead of launch plans. And like I said earlier, the cannibalization rates that we're seeing on both the male and the female product are lower than what we had anticipated. So early days, but promising.

The next question, , JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

Hi, good morning. I have two questions for you. The first one is just thinking about your midterm guide, given your FY25 guidance is for 28%. What is your timeline to achieving the 30% plus margin? Is there any change to your mid-term guide? And then the second one is on pricing. Can you quantify pricing contribution for FY24 and what are your expectations for next year?

Let me take your questions here. So in terms of our long-term guidance of delivering 8% to 10% organic growth, and improve our EBIT margin to 30%. On the margin side, we have not given a specific year, so it will be into the next strategic period towards 2030. But we are still committed and we are still aiming at getting back to the 30% EBIT margin levels. In terms of pricing, are you speaking to our prices towards the customers or the raw material prices?

In your prices.

Our prices, yeah, so over the last couple of years, we have actually been able to increase prices across a number of our businesses. And we saw that last year, and I'm also expecting that will continue in 2024-2025, but at a lower level. But we will see price increases across some of our franchises in the U.S. we will see some price increases in emerging markets, chronic care, and we will also see some price increases here in Europe, so especially in the U.K., where there is a yearly price increase. So we are expecting price increases, but not at the levels that we have seen in the last financial year. And this is still under the assumption we are not having any bigger health care reforms.

Perfect. Thank you.

Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question. I would like to turn the conference back over to Christian Wilhelmsen for any closing remarks. Thank you.

Thank you, everybody, for all your questions and interest in the company. Andrews and I will be on the road over the coming days and weeks, and we look forward to connecting directly with all of you.