11/15/2021

speaker
Operator
Conference Call Operator

event is being recorded and that all participants will be in listen-only mode during the conference call. After the presentation, there will be a Q&A for analysts and investors. At that time, further instructions will be provided. Should you need assistance during the call, please request assistance from an operator by dialing star zero. The following information is available in beer RL, according to the Brazilian corporate law and Brazilian accounting practices, which now conform to international accounting standards of the IFRS, except when otherwise indicated. Before proceeding, we would like to clarify that any forward-looking statements that are made during this conference call relative to Cogna Education's Business perspectives, projections, and operational and financial targets are beliefs and premises of the company and are based on currently available information. Future considerations are not guarantees of performance because they involve risks, uncertainties, and premises as they relate to future events and therefore dependent circumstances that may or may not occur. Investors should understand that General economic conditions and other operating factors may affect Cogna's future performance, leading to results that will differ materially than those expressed in such considerations. With Cogna's CEO, Mr. Rodrigo Galindo, who will start the presentation. Mr. Galindo, you may proceed.

speaker
Rodrigo Galindo
CEO

Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for participating in today's conference call to discuss the earnings of Q321. With me today in this call, Federico Villa, our Finance VP, and the CEOs of our vertical business units, Roberto Valério Croton, Mário Guilho Vasta, also Bruno Jardino, Vasta CFO, and Eduardo Honzac, our Corporate IRO and CFO. Now, before starting, I have a general comment about the impact of COVID on our operations, which was different in each business unit. Now, after three quarters of 21, it is clear that Croton was highly impacted by COVID in 2020 and Vasta in 2021. The numbers show that Groton suffered in 2020. We had a relevant impact. We took the needed measures. We restructured operations and the balance sheet. And now we're harvesting the results of this turnaround at Groton. And the numbers show that. At Vasta, we had the impact of the second wave of the pandemic. In late 2020, early 21, we had an impact on revenue. We knew VASTA commercial cycle in 21. We are now closing in Q2 because VASTA commercial year is from Q4 to the next Q3. We knew it was not going to have a good revenue. So we wanted to build a positive commercial cycle in 22. And we will see. that we were successful in this effort, building a very promising commercial cycle. So Groton had an impact in 2020. In 21, harvesting the benefits of restructuring. Vasta will capture the benefits in 22. So beginning today's presentation on slide three, we have an overview of Cogna. Cogner results in Q3 show we have recovered performance and concluded the company turnaround. The slide summarizes Cogner business highlights. On the left, new enrollments in the second half of 21 grew 37.8%. And it's interesting because We had 22% growth on campus, 21.9%, and 40.3% growth in distance learning, totaling 7.8% growth in total student base in the second half of 2021. I want to emphasize that Ampli partnership with Tim alone contributed 8% growth on digital. We'll give you more color on this data. soon after this introduction. Now, in the fourth bullet of the Croton box, we see on-time payments improving 8% compared to Q1 2020. Improved on-time payments together with our new mix and marketing expense reduction led to a 620 basis points growth in our recurring EBITDA margin that reached 23.4% in Q3 and 30.9% in the first nine months of 21. Strong results of Croton showing the turnaround has been concluded and the prospects for the future are bright. Finally, let me mention, we will now report higher education and postgraduate consolidated numbers for Cropton. For some time, it was important to keep Plato's as a standalone company because it was a small company. Now, it reached maturity today with more than 50,000 postgraduate students. And as 95% of Plato's revenue comes from Cropton customers, it is easier to bring them together to make a better use of Crotten distribution channels. So for us in the organization, as well as for the market, we now have Plato's results together with Crotten. But you will see the postgraduate numbers in a different column, as you see today. Now, Vasta... In the middle column, Q3 closed the commercial year of 2021. We closed the year in the third Q, and this was the most challenging year in the company history. In Q4, we begin a new cycle with a bright outlook. With contracted revenue, we expect a growth of 31% compared to the ACV of 2021, 20% of which is organic growth. 32% has already been contracted, 20% is organic growth, and 12% new enrollments. Now, the commercial cycle has not been concluded. We still have more growth to be delivered and new contracts with schools until January. And here we have not included students who left schools in 2021 because of the pandemic. Now, if they come back, we will have a second block of growth. So a strong contracted revenue, more upside risk than downside risk. And we will soon give you some more color about this contracted revenue. ACV talks about subscription revenue, our main revenue, but non-subscription revenue accounts for a shrinking share of the company revenue. We expect a single-digit drop, but this will not impact the strong growth expected in the company total revenue of 2022. Also important in this quarter, we concluded the acquisition of Eleva, totaling five acquisitions in the past year, according to the IPO plan. Finally, on the right column, Cogna consolidated numbers. We totaled 390 million reais operating cash generation in the first nine months of 2021, growing 114% above the 182 million. Leverage we maintain at a comfortable level, adjusted EBITDA net debt ratio 2.07%. In addition, We had the other end, you know, Vasta concluded the sale of our own schools operations, Saber, to Eleva. With that, we have total alignment with the company's strategy to focus on asset light models. From the first... I mean, from the third quarter, we have stabilized the ESRP SAP Cloud, integrating and optimizing Cogna, Croton, and Plata's processes. Now, before I give the floor to Roberto Valerio, if I had to talk about four relevant topics related I would say that we had a strong growth in new enrolments, 30% growth in volume, 28% in revenue, a profitability recovery at Croton and Cogner with a 25% margin at Cogner in the first nine months, Vasta ACV up 31%, 20% of that is organic and the number may still grow. and cash flow generation in the first nine months of 21 up 114%. So I believe these highlights strengthen the company commitment to align with our strategy, as mentioned in the last few quarters. We have a mantra in the company, improve profitability consistently, prioritizing asset-light segments and business models that have a better growth potential and higher return on invested capital. And I'll give the floor to Roberto Valerio, Cralton CEO. We'll talk about Cralton operating and financial highlights. Over to you, Roberto. Thank you, Rodrigo. Good afternoon, everyone. I'll begin on slide five. We have a summary of croton highlights in Q3. In previous course, I stated that 2020 was the year to restructure operations and strengthen croton balance sheet. The first half of 21 would be our turning point for Croton. I said this a number of times internally also, talking about this point of inflection. Today, I can tell you that in the first half of 2021, we already showed clear signs of performance recovery at Croton and the numbers in Q3 confirm this positive outlook. Consistently recovering profitability with a smarter capital allocation. Now, beginning with new enrollments or new student intake, As Rodrigo mentioned, our student intake grew 37.8% in the second half of 2021, of which 21.9% on campus and more than 40% distance learning. On financial terms, our revenue from new enrollments increased. And this is only the enrollment campaign. It increased almost 28%. indicating a good enrollment campaign revenue, which paves our way to recovering growth in total revenue as of 2023. In addition, our undergraduate student base grew 7.8% this cycle. Also, I want to mention our learning centers, we have opened 706 new units, which represents a 45% increase compared to Q3 2020. So it's a quick growth totaling 2,259 units or learning centers. Now about product and learning. Customer centricity, we continue to see a consistent improvement in all customer satisfaction indicators, up 14% in student NPS year on year when we consider the month of September. Now, we are proud to announce that Croton had the best score in the customer complaint portal, Reclame Aqui. of all higher education companies listed. So this is not an internal indicator. This is a market indicator showing our improvement. We are improving student experience. Our ambitious technological transformation program we announced before, the so-called PTK, includes not only architecture, but all system applications. And it's advancing according to the roadmap. Finally, let me emphasize the successful turnaround we implemented in our campaign. Our program portfolio optimization by unit helped grow distance-learned student enrollment and revenue, thus reducing the impact of on-campus student base and revenue reduction during the pandemic. Also highlight our efficiency. We reduced expenses with personnel, rentals, infrastructure, as we mentioned in previous calls. And we'll talk more about that on Cogna Day. We reduced the number of our own learning centers and we optimized the remaining units. We've improved the credit profile of out-of-pocket students, which helped improve on-time payments. As a result, we reduced PDA by 90 million in Q3 2021. We are working proactively to improve on-time payments. In 2021, we reviewed our marketing strategy. Today, we invested smarter, channeling resources to more efficient, and especially digital media. We moved from offline to online media channels, thus reducing our marketing and sales expenses, coupled to a strong student intake. With that, we became much more efficient, reducing customer acquisition costs, you know, the CAC, which is today the market benchmark, the lowest in our industry. On financial terms, our adjusted EBITDA soared 15.2% in the first nine months of 2021 with 30.9% margin. On slide six, We have some numbers on student intake. The new enrollments this quarter not only show that I mean, if you look at all the results, we have overcome the worst moment of the pandemic. Now, with more people vaccinated, we see the end of sanitary curfews. But above all, Croton is showing its capacity to attract more students than market average, even after reducing our investment in marketing and sales. Student intake in the second half had a strong performance on campus and distance learning, growing 22% and 40% respectively. In addition to the significant improvement in the number of students, we want to highlight our revenue has grown. It's not only volume with a discount. We see a growth with quality of ticket. Please wait while your speaker is being reconnected. Please wait while we can reconnect your speaker. In a few seconds, the conference call will return. Please wait while we reconnect. Please wait while we reconnect the call. You may now continue. Hello, everyone. I apologize. I think we had a technical glitch. I will resume from slide seven. So talking about our student base, the total undergraduate student base had a growth of 7.8% this cycle, led by digital. Keeping the same trend of the last few quarters, growing 19% in this period. On the other hand, on-campus student base dropped 18.6%. Now, talking about average ticket out of pocket on campus student average ticket down 7.2%. We have already explained this in previous course. This is because higher ticket senior students were replaced by new students, freshmen that had a lower ticket because of market competition. It doesn't mean that our entry ticket is falling. No, it is just a comparison between senior students that had price increases during the program. That's why we see this difference. It is a reflection of the last enrollment campaigns. In distance learning, we saw an increase in 100% online, as well as the graduation of the once a week model. when the tickets were higher, so we had a decrease of 10% in the average ticket. But growing the volume of new students has partially offset, and so we had a growth in revenue of 12.2%. On slide 8, I want to highlight that our accounts receivable coverage ratio had a marginal increase compared to Q2, totaling 67.8%. still the highest in our industry. Average receivable days reached 50 days, a significant reduction of 56 days compared to Q3 2020, and 21 days fewer compared to Q2 2021. Now, the initiatives to improve the quality of students, a smarter analytics in the renegotiation for renewals and also more efficiency in collection in the last few quarters have led to an 8% improvement in on-time payments compared to Q1 2020. So PDA was reduced by 43.5% compared to Q3 2020. Now on slide nine, I'll give you some more color on what we are doing about working capital and accounts receivable management. We are monitoring student engagement to prevent dropout. And we can early recognize when the engagement is lower to avoid lowering the quality of our accounts receivable. As we mentioned, we have a new provisioning model built together with an international consulting company with an accuracy of 88%. It has been helpful in this process. Our discount model for on-time payments was implemented, which means an improvement, again, in on-time payments. Finally, new financing programs. It's important to remember that we discontinued the PEP student installment program for new students in the first half of 2021. So we still have some senior students, but as of 2021, We don't open that for new students. And we changed our PMT model so that students will pay during the program, not after they graduate, as we used to do in the past. So that, again, will improve our on-time payments. On slide 10. Our net revenue lowered 12.8% compared to Q2 with fewer on-campus undergraduate students that had a higher ticket and also fewer FIES students in our base who also had a higher ticket. All of that was partially offset by a 17% growth in distance learning revenue. In the first nine months of 2021, net revenue dropped 13.8%. With the new mix, with hybrid digital models, we saw reduced revenue, yes, but we improved margin and cash generation, which was part of our strategy. So, a strong intake campaign well now this is the third strong intake campaign bringing a strong revenue so that shows our total revenue will grow as of 2023 about recurring EBITDA on slide 11 we see an increase of 15.5% compared to Q3 2020. When we look at the first nine months of 2021, we see a growth of 302 million, almost 70% compared to the same period last year. This evolution in operations and EBITDA margin shows that our strategy to go digital has added value to CROPTON. On my final slide, 12, let me highlight a few relevant points about our customer-centric policy and the digital transformation process. Our operating model today places the student in the center of all decisions, and that has improved our customer experience. We're happy to talk about these two indicators I have already mentioned, showing clear improvement in services. 14% growth in NPS of undergraduate students compared to the previous year, and the best score in the consumer complaint portal Reclame Aqui, the best, the benchmark in the industry. Our ambitious technological transformation program, PTK, will generate even better experiences for our students. So this improvement in the indicators are more related to process, not really to system. But as soon as the new systems are up and running, the academic journey as well as the administrative and financial journey for our students will improve even further. And the transformation will make us more agile and innovative to develop new products and services which take longer time. than we would like you know today with that i want to thank you all and i'm closing my presentation i will be answering questions later and now let me give the floor to mario guillo vasta ceo thank you very much good afternoon everyone today i'll cover the next three slides turning to slide 14 in which we'll talk about vasta's operational results even though

speaker
Operator
Conference Call Operator

we have just been through the most challenging year in our history. We closed the 2021 commercial cycle that goes to the end of 2021 with growth of 8.7% in subscription products and services revenue. This segment has proven its resilience in a time of adversity that can't be compared to any other. Ex-par without textbooks, this growth reaches 9% or 51 million and becomes the highlight of the cycle. However, in non-subscription products, resilience was lower with a reduction of 44.7% in revenue of non-subscription products that recorded a reduction of 6.7% in the net revenue of the company. As we have announced, We are now focusing and gearing our strategy to the subscription segment that in 3Q21 was responsible for 83% of our revenue in this quarter. We had a better mix of revenues. However, lower cost dilution coupled with other factors such as the higher overhead after our IPO and the PDA increase had an impact in our profitability. So we finished the 21 commercial cycle with a recurring EBITDA of 41 million reais, which is equivalent to a margin of 15.8%. We also reported one-off expenses of 20 million from editorial write-offs. If we leave this one-off effect aside, however, recurring EBITDA margin goes to 18%. In the next slide, slide 15, I would like to highlight our M&A track record. On October 22, CADH, the antitrust agency, approved our acquisition of Eleva, the Eleva learning platform. No restrictions were imposed to the transaction. This transaction broadens Vasta's portfolio and makes us the exclusive distributor of Eleva systems in several long-term agreements that have already been signed. I would like to thank all teams for everything they have done in the preparation and integrated planning. We are sorry. And that led to the approval of Kaji, in October 29. This is our fifth acquisition in the last 12 months, and we keep on delivering on the commitments we made in our IPO. Our history of growth is still in its early days, and our M&A pipeline is robust with great prospects. We are still engaged in several other transactions. Moving on to the last slide, let's talk about our annual contract value growth. And you'll find this information in slide 16. So in slide 16, I will make a few comments about ACV. So as Rodrigo mentioned in the beginning of the call, we are expecting a very strong commercial campaign for 2022. We're still two months away from the end of the commercial campaign. However, by the end of October, our 2022 ACV already totaled 888 million reais, and this represents an organic growth of 20% over the subscription revenue of the 2021 cycle. up to now. If we exclude paper-based PAR, that is physical textbook books, growth reaches 28% even more robust because almost 100% of the new ACV revenue originates from traditional learning systems or complementary solutions or even new textbook digital platforms. This is the so-called PAR as a service. So, considering the purchase of the Eleva platform, our ACV number in 2022 already totals 974 million reais, a 32% increase over the subscription revenue in 2021. We will continue updating the ACV at the end of the commercial campaign, and it's important to mention that the ACV projections don't include the immediate return of students that dropped out from schools during the pandemic, nor the volume of school books that were reused by families in 2021. So we look at those two effects as possible upsides in the future. As we have said, the non-subscription product was hardly hit by the reuse of textbooks. and we are still expecting a slight drop in revenue. However, considering its low representativeness in total revenue, it does not affect the strong revenue growth we expect for 2022. I would also like to point out the substantial increase in partner schools. We have an increase of 19% in the number of schools for 2022, reaching approximately 5,400 partner schools. So with this, I thank you for your kind attention and hand it over to Fred Villa. Thank you very much. Thank you very much, Mario. I'll start my presentation now, in which I will detail the operating results of Saber. Talking about net revenue in the third quarter, it has remained stable, growing 0.5%, reaching 150,000 reais. However, looking to EBITDA, recovery EBITDA and margin, we had EBITDA growth from 30 to 37 million and also growth margin reaching 23.8%. Performance, in spite of the fact that it's stable, we saw growth in EBITDA and I think it's important to mention that we have completed the sale of schools in October 2021. Now, continuing with the presentation, we have talked about the new business. So turning to slide 20 and looking at revenue, in the third quarter 20, we had revenue of $180 million, up 13.5%, reaching $205 million. growing 125 million reais, driven by the increase of sales in the national textbook program. Besides that, in recurring EBITDA, we had also growth of around 21 million reais and margin growth of 42.8%. We have reached margins in 3Q21 of around 35%. I think that's An important message is that the National Textbook Program will be concentrated in the second semester, and it's going to have the impact of the repurchase of Basic Education I and II and purchase of Basic Education and high school books. Now, moving to Cogna, I will give you a very brief summary of everything that Mário Guil and Roberto Valério have discussed with us. Our net revenue at Cogna, there was a reduction of around 7% that reached in the third quarter of 21, $1,170,000,000. And in the year-to-date number, we had a decrease of around 12%, reaching $3.7 billion. Looking to the future, I think it's very important that the new student intake campaigns, and Mário Gil has just made reference to this, will be very strong and in Vasta will have resumption of growth in revenue starting in 2022. We have talked about revenue, now let's talk about recurring EBITDA in Cogna when consolidating these numbers. The quarter was positive in the comparison of the third quarter 21 to the first quarter, third quarter 20. There was growth of margin of around 2%, reaching 20.1 and growth of around 6 million in EBITDA, totaling 235 million reais. Recurring EBITDA in the nine month, showed growth of margin of 6.5%, reaching margin of almost 25% with recurring EBITDA reaching 931 million reais. This growth was driven by the main effects in Croton with the increase of our efficiencies in costs and operating expenses, and also with the substantial improvement of our default rates and other PDA effects additionally with the intake effects. In the next slide, I think that a very important message that we have to make and that for us internally is also very relevant is operating cash generation. There was growth of OCG in the nine month comparing 2020, September 2020 to September 2021 of 114%, we had positive cash generation of 390 million reais with cash conversion growing 19 percentage points that is to 42%. And in the first quarter, 2021, we generated cash of 190 million reais. And now we generated 193 million reais. So a very significant improvement in both cash generation and cash conversion. Turning to slide 25 and speaking of leverage, The effects I have mentioned, cost pressure and overhead and the improvement of default rates led to the operating cash generation I mentioned. In nine months, we reached 390 million. Our leverage, well, there was a slight decrease in leverage in the comparison of the same period in 2020. Now we have a leverage of 207 times, which is very comfortable. And we hope that in the coming semesters we'll be very close to that and also very comfortable. The lengthening of our debt profile with the venture submission and the average debt term went from 22 months to 28 months. And with the conclusion of that transaction, we are also in a more comfortable position. Moving on to the next slide, slide 26, I will detail our solid cash position and our debt. Today, the company has a cash position of 3.5 billion, net debt of 3 billion reais. Here we can see in the chart to the left below, if you add up accounts receivables and The net of cash availabilities of 2.9 billion with adjusted EBITDA of the last 12 months of 1.4 billion. This shows our trajectory in deleveraging the company. And in the chart to the right, we show our amortization schedule that is proof of the company's ability to pay off its debt in next years. The next year particularly is an election year. There could be some turbulence. However, the company is prepared to pay off its debt in the medium and short term. So with this, we have an average duration of 28 months and a cost of debt of the interbank interest rate, plus 1.61%. So with this, I close my presentation and I hand it over back to Rodrigo Gallego. Thank you very much. We're now nearing the end of my presentation. In the next slide, we have the highlights of the last nine months of 2021. It's a very brief and objective synthesis. In net revenue, I think we have a negative impact with a decrease of 12.3%. What didn't go as well? Well, the on-site graduation revenue and VASTA that was with a performance below the plan. And what mitigated this was digital graduation revenue that partially offset VASTA's on-campus results and continues to show promise for the future. In terms of recurring revenue, EBITDA, we have positive news with growth of 17.8%. We went from 790 million to 931 million with several drivers, including the increase in students in hybrid and digital learning, and also a very strong improvement in on-time payments up now eight percentage points, which leads to lower PDA and all indicators showing more robustness. Turnaround in the campus operations and the new digital marketing strategy that decides reducing expenses also increased our intake efficiency. Also overhead reduction. You can see in the arrows, they are in green. and they're pointing up, they're all positive. Those are the five points that enabled us to reach 17.8% of growth in recurring EBITDA in the nine months of 2021. In the block to the right, I think we have the most powerful message and the principal takeaway. We have reached post-CAPEX cash generation of 182 million, and there are three factors, the positive impact, impacts of our operating results that I have just mentioned, less working capital consumption and more on time payments and an all time low capex as a result of the asset flight operations we have developed. So this is the strategy that we are now pursuing more asset light operations leading to more cash. And as Fred said, in his speech, the strong intake campaigns on campus and also the very strong OCG lead us to believe that 2022 will be a year for resumption of revenue growth in Cogna. We had two years with shrinking revenue, but everything shows that in the next year we'll turn this around and we'll continue to grow. with a more asset-light base. Now, moving on to the last slides of the presentation, we have the outlook for our business units. We've talked a lot about the past. Now, let's think a little bit about the future. In Crofton, I would like to highlight that the turnaround process of our own units has been completed with structural gains in profitability. We continue trucking along in our growth strategy in digital and on-campus high-value courses. The mix from on-campus to hybrid and digital continues to put pressure on our revenue, but the margins will be affected, and we have enrollment campaigns with positive volume, both on-campus and distance learning, so the outlook is positive. Also thinking of on-campus courses with higher lifetime value, we have some health courses with great opportunities for growth. We have, for example, medical courses, and we'll open three new medical schools through Mais Médicos, two of them in 2022. In digital, we will continue expanding our learning centers and developing we have now opportunities and the product Ampli that will start adding value. And for several years in the future, they'll continue to add value. This is also another source of future growth, especially because we already have contracts. And besides that, the Ampli product and the agreement with Tim also create our good growth prospects. In addition to this, the number of the learning centers will continue to grow. We also see many opportunities to capture through our digital marketing strategy and our main focus now will be on efficiency so that we can drive more intake and more volume. We were able to reduce some costs and now we have an opportunity to continue continue growing our intakes. And Roberto has already mentioned PTK, our ambitious plan, is really a very important revolution in terms of student experience. All of the student journey will be impacted and this will create a very significant effect for Croton because it will provide the flexibility we need to be able to innovate much more, much faster than in the past. We have been working on this project for some quarters now and the first students are now enjoying the benefits of this new solution in the first quarter 2022. So there will be gradual increments, but it's no longer a promise. The first students are now being onboarded. So finally, in the last slide of the presentation, slide 29, we expect strong growth in VASTA's net revenue. Up to now, the ACV contracted for the year shows growth of 31%. In addition to this, we have 12% of ACV growth coming from the Eleva acquisition. So the growth of 20% in organic and the Eleva number will continue to grow in the future. We also have a contract that was signed with McKinsey showing how strong the Vasta brand is in this industry and that creates a possibility of distributing The McKinsey brand, this was not really a target for Vasta, but now this creates another opportunity to market our services. I think that another very important point to underscore is that we're becoming more resilient with the new go-to-market that is really focused on subscription agreements. agreements for ACV 2022 were subscription agreements. And this will have, this has a potential to increase our, the share that in the cycle 2021 was already 83%. So our digital services offerings, B2B2C, such as plural, the tutoring, private tutoring, or plural adapter are already in operation. They create opportunities of selling products directly to students. So this also paves the way for new growth. With this, EBITDA and OCG for VASTA should grow very vibrantly in 2022. And moving on to the last block, speaking of Cognos Outlook, Well, they are very positive because Cogden, of course, is the combination of the two business units we have just talked about, but not only in financial terms. It was a very intense year, and I would like to highlight this to you. We have created an ESG agenda in the company, and we worked a lot on this topic. We set up working groups. We involved hundreds of people in the discussions. We created affinity groups, defined and implemented action plans. We developed leadership programs, including middle level leaders to the board. And we also worked on the definition of social, environmental, and governance commitments together with the short, medium, and long-term targets that will be made public at the end of November so that society can track our progress. We are really engaged in ESG and everyone in the organization is contributing. So our ESG manifesto will be announced in a public event and everyone will be invited probably in the month of November. So in relation to the year of 2022, we also expect positive financial results from Cogna. It will be the year for resumption of revenue growth at Cogna, excluding the revenue from Saber schools. And this revenue growth will come coupled with continuing EBITDA growth and also strong cash generation. So we continue striving to become more asset light and also to give more return on investment. I think that the results of the third quarter point out to a good outlook for the future. With this, I close this presentation. I would like to thank you all for your participation. You're all invited for our Q&A. Thank you very much. We will now start the Q&A session. only for investors and analysts. If you have any questions, please press star one. If your question is answered, you may remove yourself from the line by pressing star square. The questions will be answered in the order they are received. Please take off the phone from the hook as you ask your question. And please wait while we collect the questions. Our first question is from Leandro Bastos, Citibank.

speaker
Rodrigo Galindo
CEO

Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you. I have two questions. One about on-time payment. Seems like you've had an improvement. So, What about the trend for the future? This would be my first question. The second question about marketing expenses. You now have a lower CAC or cost for acquired student. So now, do you have plans to invest more in digital channels or platforms? you don't believe it is necessary to have higher investments in marketing. Hello, Leandro. Thank you. This is Rodrigo. I'll answer the first question and then Roberto will add to my answer on time payments. Yes, we have improved this by 8% and I will highlight three important points present on the release and also a fourth driver that is not included in the release. First, we had a more rigorous process to accept students. We can identify students who enrolled and paid the first monthly payment, but they did not engage. And so we do not generate, we do not count that student in our base. So we do not deteriorate the quality of payments. We can also identify senior students who do not have a high engagement, and then we do not recognize their payments as revenue. They have renewed, they signed a six-month congress, so we could continue to bill these students. But we know that we cannot really convert this revenue into cash. So we identify lower engagement. We remove them from the revenue base. So we have lower revenue, but accounts receivable have a higher quality. Now we offer a discount for on-time payments, and that has also helped us. Now, the first thing I'd like to mention, which is not in the release, our collection systems have improved. in 2021, and that has also added value. We don't know how much benefit came from each one of these four initiatives, but together, these four added important value, 8% improvement in on-time payments, even with this macroeconomic scenario. Now, Roberto Valerio, about marketing, I agree with you, Rodrigo, It was important that you spoke about improved processes, you know, in collection and ensuring that the bill is correct, that the student received the bill to be able to pay. Now talking about marketing. I would highlight our strategy is not only look at marketing budget as a whole, but we also look at investment based on CAC because we want to attract students with a high LTV. on the investment we make to acquire that student. So we have smarter marketing investments with a lot of discipline in that we believe we still have room to improve ACV CAC ratio, not only moving from offline to online media, but also using some innovative channels, different student intake channels that we are detecting. So we believe we can still make improvements, but I agree with you. You will actually see more about this in Q4. We may have more marketing investment to grow to accelerate student intake. Now, in Q4, we are preparing for our enrollment cycle, so you will already see higher marketing investments in Q4. However, I'll tell you that we have more volume invested, but always looking at ACV compared to CAC. Perfect. Thank you, Galindo and Roberto. Our next question, Marcelo Santos from the JP Morgan Bank. Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for taking my questions. These are two questions on my side as well. First, can you talk a bit more about the significant improvement in dropout rate of on-campus students? It's dropped by half, even with a challenging economic environment. Maybe it's related to the drivers of on-time payment you mentioned, but I'd like to hear more about that. Next, the Ampli Project Economics. I'd like to see more color on that. It has helped digital. What about the marketing revenue? These would be my two questions today. Hello, Marcelo. How are you today? Roberto will answer both questions. Hello, Marcelo. Thanks for your questions. The first question about a better dropout rate for on-campus students. I think there are two drivers. Of course, more engagement. We're closer to students. We ensure that they can renew their enrollments. We're always focusing students who are more engaged, who have a better credit profile. And on-campus is still relevant. And on campus is growing less than digital. So it is only natural that on campus has a lower dropout rate. So, but you will also see a growing dropout in the next cycle because we had a very strong growth in distant learning. I think you know these dynamics when we have a very strong student intake, then we also have a growth in the dropout rate. However, this here, we have less pressure, you know, because on campus grew less in the last campaigns and more engagement improves not only on time payments, but it also helps improve the dropout rate. Now talking about Ampli, Ampli, as you know, we are very enthusiastic about this initiative. We see a big potential, but it's a new initiative. So we continue to make efforts for student intake. We continue to invest on the brand, but always using the platforms we already have with other brands. So the same contracts, the same digital media marketing, which is the main channel, you know, for students. to attract students for, for Ampli. So, but the marginal cost is much lower. In addition, we also have expenses by team. I mean, we are trying with different initiatives and Tim is also investing, you know, and this is not shown in our results because these are Tim investment, but the investment that we make is in our, but they're still marginal investments. And we're also looking at ACV-CAC ratio here. Now, this is Rodrigo. Let me add, today we cannot talk about the specific number of students at AMPLI, but we have already told you that it has contributed eight percentage points for student intake. That is the Ampli contribution. So we can tell you that in one year, they have already attracted tens of thousands of students. That is more than some of the leading distance learning groups in Brazil. So it's already a relevant operation and we feel optimistic. Of course, the beginning of the process still has a lot of trial and error. So we are trying to understand how to have a positive impact on this very rich student base so that we have positive impact. But we are already harvesting good results. But I think we have a huge potential ahead. Let me just follow up on Ampli. So comparing student to a digital student, how do you compare the LTV and the profitability comparing these two student profiles? The good question, I'm sorry, I forgot to answer. When we negotiated this initiative with Tim, we have, you know, the distance learning And that is kind of equivalent to what we have with Tim. Of course, these are different models. But when you think about, you know, LTV, how much of the LTV will go to Tim and how much will go to the partner? For us, it's the same as the LTV of a digital student at Ayanguera or Ampli. These would be about the same for us. Perfect. Thank you very much. It's clear.

speaker
Operator
Conference Call Operator

Our next question is from Jan Siskin, PTG Pactual. Good afternoon, everyone. I have just one question on the recurring margin level for higher education in Crompton. We have been monitoring the substantial improvement of margin year on year, but we also observe a decrease quarter on quarter. And now with the comeback of on-campus activities and with the faculty rollout, what should we envision in relation to the recurrence of margin? I'm not really sure whether you can share a number with us. How much of the on-campus students have now gone back to the campus? So should we... Should we think of a number? So what's the projection for the margin in the future, if you can give us a little color? Hello, Ayan. Rodrigo here. Well, it's one question, but we'll give you two answers. I'll start. But basically, in addition to going back to schools, we have seasonality between quarters. So Croton will close the year with a margin between 18 to 15%, no, rather 15 to 28%. This is a very safe level that we can say for the closing of the year 2021. For 2022, we can either maintain or grow this margin. So now let's see what other opportunities we have. Thank you very much for this question, Ian. Well, you know, Rodrigo has mentioned seasonality. So the fourth quarter, as I mentioned in the previous question, will invest a little more in marketing. This will create a momentary pressure in margins, especially considering the CAC concept. So margins have been recovering significantly and they are structural. There are some gains that you have mentioned, stronger gains in the first quarter because there are fewer people on the campus. But 37% margins that we have in the first quarter is something that's off the charts. It's not something that we can sustain. This shows that people were not on campus and it's the margin between 25 and 28 that Rodrigo mentioned is something healthy and more representative of the company. Now for 2022, we're feeling very positive about it, but we have some pressures as well. You know, inflation is very high and these will be challenges we'll have to overcome. But we have made also some, concrete actions in the Croton recovery, for example, we have shown our ability to think differently and of doing things differently. And this is the mentality we'll use in 2022. Just to reinforce something Roberto said about doing things differently. Everything we did delivered so much value for the company and we are doing things much better than in the past. So this is the spirit of using opportunities to counter inflation without taking anything away from the student experience. This is what we'll do. So margin 25 to 28% until the end of 2022, 21. And we don't expect a decrease of margins in the comparison of 22 and 21. Okay, thank you very much, it's clear. Our next question comes from Vinicius Ribeiro, UBS. Good afternoon, thank you for taking my question. Well, just going back to what Rodrigo has just commented, we see that the macroeconomic variables are changing a lot, especially inflation. So can you give us a little color, you know, considering the pipeline and also costs, what gives you this security to say that you'll be able to do the cost reallocations and keep the margins in croton? And also considering the next student intake cycle and considering the change in macroeconomic conditions, What's your intake strategy, retention strategy for next year? Rodrigo, here I'll start and then I'll hand it over to Roberto. Well, I think it's best to use conceptual discussion here because we don't want to give you any guidance. There are two drivers, you know, pushing against each other. And we have some hypotheses. Well, first we have the economy. Brazil is living in a certain scenario, and we are, of course, living in Brazil, and we will suffer the impacts just like any other corporation. However, at the same time, it's a time of change in our specific business, and this creates huge growth opportunities. For example, two years ago, There was just one option. If you wanted to study business administration, you had to go on campus and you would pay 600 reais. Now with the pandemic, you realize, okay, I can take a business administration course in an online program paying a lot less. So a high number of students, you know, can pay 200 reais. So our addressable market has increased very significantly. Our intake has grown 40%. This is a very positive indication for me that with the increase of the addressable market, this really offsets a deteriorating macroeconomic environment. And so that's why we're feeling optimistic in spite of of the macroeconomic scenario. And I'll turn it over now to Roberto to complement my answer. Thank you, Vinicius, for your answer. I agree with Rodrigo in relation to student intake. Well, Google recently made a survey to identify how many Brazilians want to take a higher education program. But according to Google, 15 million Brazilians want to go to university in the next six months. So 15 million, even if half of them can't afford it, we have still 7 million addressable market. So we need to use innovation and find a way to get a piece of that pie. And this is the mentality that we adopted in this cycle. And this is how we were able to keep our growth rate. Of course, it's a very competitive market and we have to live and see what the future holds, you know, week after week. But we're feeling, you know, excited because, you know, people are going back to on campus and there are several initiatives underway that are maturing. So also in relation to retention and also re-enrollments, we have a much healthier student base with a better credit score. So we don't really see any reason for dropout rates to spiral especially if we continue to bring in quality students of course there's always some level of uncertainty because there's a lot going on with the end of the pandemic but we're feeling optimistic because we think that the recovery is consistent and we'll be able to seize a good part of it very well thank you for your answer Our next question from Victor Tomita. Good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for taking your questions. We have two of them. First, could you elaborate on the crotons on campus ticket pressure? And what about the competitive scenario in general? About Vasta, we understand that with a lower or smaller course portfolio, this should help. But considering the same brand portfolio, did you have a problem transferring the inflation to your schools? Thank you, Victor. I'll start, Rodrigo here, and then Roberto and Gil will pitch in. In relation to the ticket, there are two main events. driving the ticket down and they are very clear and easy to understand. First PEP. We discontinued this payment plan for new students and the ticket was naturally higher than out-of-pocket. So in itself this drives down the average ticket. And finally PMT. PMT is The payment plan for late enrollment students, for example, they join in April. So instead of paying, for example, for preceding month, you know, the three preceding month, we give them, you know, a better plan. So up to then, they paid, you know, the full tuition without any discounts. Now we are making the payment plan, giving them a discount in tuition. starting in the fourth month. This simplifies the process of communication, lowers the debt level, and improves the credit quality. But at the same time, it reduces the average ticket. So those are typical factors that led to diminishment of the ticket. But leaving those two factors aside, The ticket is stable, so we're feeling very comfortable with the on-campus ticket. So please feel free to compliment me. Roberto, no, I think you explained perfectly. Victor, I have nothing to add. The intake scenario hasn't really changed that much. I think I've said that in the last two cycles. In distance learning, We've reached the point which is the lowest average ticket with programs at around 150, 170 reais. Unless there is a change in regulation or in business model, we think that's the level. We see some more aggressive offers, especially when a new program is launched in a different region. But on campus, there was actually some recovery of the average ticket because on campus, as we know, has more costs involved. So the competitors, as graduations occur with the more advanced students, the classes become less profitable and there's no way out except adjusting prices. So they are doing this. And then let me turn over to you for his comments. Thank you, Victor, for your question. This year, inflation, well, usually we are able to introduce real increases over the inflation, but this year we will be able just to match inflation because it really grew in the final month of the year, but we won't be losing anything to inflation. As for revenue, I think that you raise an interesting point because our revenue has a very solid mix because we're reducing the paper-based contribution because the behavior is now is really more significant in subscription and a way of looking at this is that when we announce a growth of 19% in schools and a growth of 32% in revenue, this shows that we have a good price mix and a good average ticket. To give you a little color in relation to the campaign our premium brands are the ones are the ones performing the best in their campaigns and and even though this is a tough year the most premium brands are the ones that are able to attract more students because schools want to reposition themselves in their respective markets And I think that the last thing I would like to add, Victor, well, we also have complementary services and cross-selling opportunities that have been growing very positively. So schools are willing to offer a wider range of services to families. And this, of course, creates higher tickets, too. Thank you very much, Rodrigo.

speaker
Rodrigo Galindo
CEO

Thank you, Roberto, Rodrigo, and Guillaume. Next question, Maurizio Sebel from Credit Suisse. Hello, good afternoon. Thank you for taking my question. I believe that you are optimistic in terms of student base in the future, but on-campus-hybrid is recovering slower, not only for you, also in the whole market. Do you think maybe you will need to restructure your campaign when hybrid programs are bigger and on campus is growing slower? And about inflation, you know, also interest rates are high. And looking at your debt, Are you looking at divesting so as to reduce your leverage now that we have higher interest? Hello, Sepeta. Thank you for the questions. This is Rodrigo, and then I'll hand it over to Fred. Our leverage is not at the top level. It's two times, not three, which would be the maximum level. We feel comfortable at the current leverage level. We have no plans to sell assets to reduce leverage. Well, of course, maybe we can sell small assets because they are no longer strategic. But not even that we have in our current plan. We are not considering selling assets to manage leverage. We have been managing leverage doing what we had to do, which was to generate cash, grow EBITDA. So today we feel pretty comfortable at the current level of leverage. Next year, between 2 and 2.3, this is the level that we aim at. The other question about our campy. I will ask Roberto to answer that, and then I may have final considerations. Thank you, Maurício, for the question. Yes, you are right. Maybe we will make small adjustments, but not big turnarounds or closing units. No, just adjustments that are only natural during the process. We have a number of premium products So that is the hybrid or once a week model when students come to our campy to use the labs, including digital labs. So yes, there can be some adjustments, which is only natural, but we are not planning at closing units or any turnaround in our campy today. Okay, thank you. Perfect. Thank you for answering. Thank you. If we do not have any further questions, I would like to give the floor to Mr. Galindo for his final considerations. Mr. Galindo, your final considerations, please. Okay, ladies and gentlemen, I want to thank you all for being with us this afternoon. We feel happy with the earnings. 2020 was a difficult year. 2021 was a better year for Croton. We harvested results, but Vasta, we needed to restructure. So we're happy with the results, but we have a lot of focus to ensure results. a 2022 that can deliver all of this optimism that we conveyed to you today. I want to thank you and I want to thank my whole team. These have been two very difficult years. We worked hard to overcome the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, but we have proven resilient, delivering consistent numbers and having robust basis for next year. Thank you all very much and good afternoon. Thank you. Today's Cogna conference call is now closed. Please disconnect your lines now and have a great afternoon.

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