Commerzbank AG

Hello and a warm welcome to the Commerzbank AG conference call regarding the fourth quarter results 2024. Please note that this call is being transmitted as well as recorded by audio webcast and will subsequently be made available for replay on the internet. At this time, all participants have been placed on a listen-only mode. The floor will be open for questions following Bettina Olop's and Carsten Schmidt's presentation. Let me now turn the floor over to you, CEO Bettina Olop.

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our earnings call for the fourth quarter, 2024. This morning, we have not only disclosed our Q4 presentation, but also the slide deck for our capital markets day in the afternoon. This gives you the opportunity to have a close look already at our strategic plan and prepare for the CMD. In this call, however, we will focus on 2024 and our outlook for 2025. Later today at the CMD, we are also happy to answer all your questions on our strategic plan until 2028. Having said that, I'm looking forward to sharing my view on 2024 and 2025 before Carsten will walk you through the financial details of the fourth quarter. Carsten officially started just two weeks ago. but he has quickly caught up as he was with Commerzbank for more than 20 years before he joined Dunsk in 2021. I'm extremely happy to have Carsten back on the team, and I'm really looking forward to our joint endeavors. 2024 has been an extremely successful year for Commerzbank. Three key messages summarize it well. First, we delivered a strong financial performance with a net return on tangible equity of 9.2%. Second, with 1.7 billion Euro, we return more capital to our shareholders than planned. And third, this excellent year provides us with a very good starting position for 2025 and beyond. Our results reflect the dedication and hard work of our team. Hence, it is important to me to state the fact that we have delivered on our return and cost income ratio targets for each of the last four years. no matter what others say. Let's have a look at the key financials in 2024, starting with the cost income ratio. Based on an overall strong revenue growth of 6.2%, and by meeting our cost expectations of 6.5 billion, we achieved a cost income ratio of 59%, better than our target of 60%. Our net result increased by 20% and came in at almost 2.7 billion, despite a pre-tax burden of €1 billion from legal provisions for FX mortgages in Poland. One of the standout metrics for 2024 is clearly our return on tangible equity, which exceeded our target of at least 8% by a significant margin, reaching 9.2% for the full year. This demonstrates our ability to generate strong returns for our shareholders while maintaining a robust capital position. Our CEG-1 ratio stood at 15.1% at the end of 2024, providing a solid buffer above regulatory requirements and positioning us well for future growth. With our pre-release two weeks ago, we already disclosed NII and NCI for 2024. Both came in better than expected, which is testament to the quality of our revenues. There were no extraordinary year-end effects within NII and NCI. the strong result rather stems from good client business and diligent margin management. Net interest income remained stable at 8.3 billion, despite the challenges posed by increased deposit betters and lower rates towards the end of the year. This stability was achieved through strong deposit growth and effective margin management, especially when ECB started to cut rates. Our net commission income increased by 7% year on year, clearly outperforming our targets and expectations. Especially the securities business and our asset management activities contributed to this strong growth. Our excellent financial performance in 2024 was underpinned by robust revenue growth across all our business segments. Our corporate client segment increased revenues by 5%. The substantial growth in fee, lending, and rates businesses more than compensating for lower deposit revenues due to higher deposit better. This performance highlights our ability to adapt to changing market conditions and capitalize on opportunities in the corporate banking space. Looking at private and small business customers, the teams also delivered strong revenue growth driven by 7% higher fee income and deposit volume growth. Moreover, PSBC continues to benefit from contributions from the replication portfolio, which will also provide a tailwind this year. Our MBank subsidiary in Poland continue to deliver strong revenue growth, supported by good margin management and rising volumes. They achieved growth rates of 10% in both NII and NCI, and this is a remarkable and further proof for the powerful business model of MBank. In terms of capital return, we have made significant progress in returning value to our shareholders. We successfully completed the first tranche of our share buyback program amounting to 600 million and received approval for the second tranche of up to 400 million, which we will start tomorrow. Additionally, we intend to propose a dividend of 65 cents per share at our upcoming annual general meeting, reflecting our commitment to deliver attractive returns to our shareholders. Overall, we overachieved on our 3 billion capital return target for the period from 2022 to 2024 by distributing 3.1 billion euro. As we look ahead to 2025, we are well positioned to build on our successes and continue delivering strong financial performance. We slightly raised our net interest income guidance to 7.7 billion at the lower end of the range, and keep the guidance of 7.9 billion in this scenario of forward rates materializing. The connected net share value contribution is expected to range from 0.4 to 0.3 billion, leading to a combined guidance of 8.1 to 8.2 billion euros. Based on the strong 2024 momentum in net commission income with a 7% growth rate, we are confident to reach this growth rate again. We target a cost-income ratio of 57% in 2025. And let me be crystal clear on this. If revenues are at risk, we do have the flexibility and the commitment to address this on the cost side. Given the muted outlook for the German economy, we expect a risk result of around 850 million, assuming usage of our template adjustment. Take into account the planned restructuring charges of 700 million pre-tax for the headcount reduction as part of our momentum strategy, we target a net result of 2.4 billion euro. Excluding these restructuring charges, we aim for a net result of minimum 2.8 billion euro. This translates into 2.5 billion after 81 coupons and forms the basis for our targeted payout ratio of 100%. This reflects our new capital return policy, which allows the exclusion of certain one-off burdens when applying a payout ratio of 100%. Our CAG1 ratio is targeted to be at least 14%, assuming a 4% RWA increase due to business growth and some prudent RWA migration on the backdrop of the challenging economic environment. It remains to be seen whether the latter will actually materialize. All the above are obviously subject to further developments with respect to FX loan provisions and our Russian subsidiary. In conclusion, 2024 has been a year of significant achievements for Commerzbank. We have exceeded our financial targets, delivered strong returns to our shareholders, and positioned ourselves well for the future growth. As we move into 2025, we remain committed to delivering value and building on the strong foundations we have established. We are confident in our ability to navigate the challenges ahead. Hence, we will continue driving profitable growth and we got off to a very good start in 2025. Now I would like to hand over to Carsten who will provide a detailed overview of our financials of the fourth quarter.

Thank you, Bettina. And good morning, everyone. It's a pleasure to be here as designated CFO, and I'm very much looking forward to presenting the financials of one of the bank's best quarters. I've spent most of my career at Comets Bank, most recently as head of finance until I left in 2021. Feels great to be back. I'm impressed by what I've seen in my first days. The bank has made great progress over the last few years and is very well positioned for the future. The results of the fourth quarter are a testament of this. Let's start with the overview of our financial performance. All key metrics have improved compared to the previous quarter and year on year. We achieved a double digit ROTI in the quarter and I think this says it all. And it was accomplished with an increased C to one ratio of 15.1% while distributing 71% to shareholders. The performance was driven by record level revenues. Net interest income remained on the level of the last quarters, despite lower interest rates. This quarter, we delivered the highest net commission income of the year, while historically Q4 tends to be weaker. This success is attributable to our multiple growth initiatives. The positive Net Fair Value result reflects FX valuation effects of our US dollar 81 issuances, which had a positive impact of approximately 80 million this quarter compared to a negative 40 million in Q3. Net commission income grew by more than 7%, with contributions from all our customer groups. Corporate clients increased commission income year on year, driven by a strong capital markets business, thereby maintaining the level reached in Q3. Private and small business customers in Germany continued its momentum in the securities business, which also includes contributions from Aquila Capital. mBank also delivered a solid quarter. With a broad base of our fee businesses and the ongoing initiatives, we are confident that we can sustain the 7% growth rate in 2025. The next slide provides a product level drill down. Proper clients maintain trade finance revenues despite the sluggish German economy, demonstrating our strength in this area. In PSBC Germany, the payments business remains stable. With the initiatives launched in 2024 and the just announced partnership with Visa for innovative card and wallet offerings, we see potential for growth in the upcoming quarters. Let's move on to interest income. Despite lower ECB rates, NII is up 1.6% from Q3. The number one driver was the management of the deposit beta, which came in at 39% after 40% in Q3. This was most pronounced in PSBC and driven by call deposits. There was a relatively high volume with initially guaranteed rates that reached their reset dates. Accordingly, the cost of these deposits was reduced in line with current rates, and can be reduced further as interest rates continue to come down. The lower NII and others in consolidation was attributable to internal effects that are P&L neutral on a group level. Looking at volumes, the trend from the last quarters is intact. Corporate clients continued its above-market loan growth of 10% for the year, helping to compensate for the lower revenues from deposits. Deposits grew as corporate strengthened their liquidity towards the end. For private and small business customers, Q4 was the best quarter for new mortgages this year, stabilizing volumes at a slightly higher level than last year. With the ending of the high guaranteed rates on some call deposits, we have seen a slight reduction in volumes, but could keep around 80% of the deposits at the reduced rates we offered. Side deposit volumes seem to stabilize as we have not seen big swings in the year. During my first days, I noted the continued interest in the investor community and the connection between interest income and the fair value results at Commerzbank. I will therefore provide a brief overview of the mechanics. There are several ways hedging derivatives in the banking book can be accounted for. Commerzbank reports the complete profit and loss from all derivatives in net fair value. while other banks partially split the P&L in NII and fair value. Although there's no economic difference, it can have a noticeable effect in the reporting. Given its structurally very strong funding franchise, Commerzbank has a substantial fixed rate funding base. In 2024, not all this funding was used for fixed rate investments. Some variable rate investments are also funded by fixed rate liabilities. To match the cash flows and manage the interest rate exposure from the commercial business, the bank uses hedging derivatives. Funding and investment are accounted for in NII. The hedges are accounted for in net fair value. Now if interest rates fall, the interest earned from the variable rate investments falls as well, reducing the net interest income. Simultaneously, the interest payments from the hedging derivatives, where we currently pay floating rates on a net basis, declines by a corresponding amount. This in turn increases the value of the derivatives. In principle, this leads to a full offset, but in different line items when interest rates move. On slide 17, we present a simplified example of fixed rate funding invested at the ECB. This example illustrates the principle offset mechanism between interest income and share value due to the accounting method used. I don't want to go through this worked example in detail now, but I and the investor relations team are happy to walk you through if you're interested. The key takeaways are the offset between interest rates, sorry, the offset between interest income and fair value is real and simply a result of the accounting method used. It becomes apparent when interest rates move. This offset is only relevant for others in consolidation where the matching of funding and investment cash flows takes place. The extent of the offset depends on the bank's position. In 2024, the offset was around 80% in others in consolidation. For 2025, we expect a closer match of fixed rate investments and liabilities and thus a smaller offsetting effect in fair value, but at the same time, higher NII. Please also keep in mind that these positions are not the only ones contributing to NII and net fair value and others in consolidation. This brings me to the next slide with the outlook for NII and related net fair value in 2025. For 2025, we assume an average ECB rate of 2.15% in our plan. Forward rates are currently higher. We have therefore also done a scenario calculation at 2.35% to give an initial range. The same applies for mBank. In our planning, we assumed Weibull rates of 4.89%, while forwards are significantly higher. We have used 5.64% in an alternative forward rate-based scenario. For volumes, we cautiously plan with slightly lower contributions from deposits, offset by loan growth. For the deposit data, we assume an increase by two percentage points to 41%. The replication portfolios will continue to gradually reprice up, adding around 200 million NII in 2025. And finally, mBank's NII is expected to be around 200 million lower based on our conservative rate assumptions for Poland. Adding these effects together, we arrive at 7.7 billion for 2025. Using the forward rate scenario, this increases to 7.9 billion. For the offsetting fair value effect, we are in a range of 400 to 300 million, depending on the rates used. Overall, we expect NII and connected change in fair value to be around 8.1 to 8.2 billion in 2025. Now to cost on slide 19. Operating expenses, excluding mBank, was strictly managed during the year at around 2% higher than last year due to higher HR-related costs and the acquisition of Aquila, partially offset by FTE reductions in Germany and ongoing showering activities. mBank's costs increased by 14% because of investments in business growth and FX effects. This is in line with mBank's cost-income ratio steering. Thanks to better-than-planned revenues, the group cost income ratio reached 59% and is ahead of target. For 2025, we aim to further reduce the ratio to 57%. The next slide details the risk result. The Q4 risk result came in at 214 million, leading to a full year risk result of 743 million. There was only a marginal reduction of our top level adjustments to 228 million. Despite the challenging environment, our portfolio remains robust. Nevertheless, based on the muted economic outlook for 2025, we expect a somewhat higher risk result of approximately 850 million in 2025, assuming usage of the top level adjustment. This completes the overview of the key line items, and I will now move on to the results summary. I have already covered the main drivers of the operating result and therefore focus on the net results. In Q4, the tax rate was 18%, mainly due to additional DTA on FX loan provisions in Poland, as well as a reduced prior tax year tax provisions. The financial year's tax rate is 26%. For 2025, we expect a tax rate of around 25 to 30%, depending on future developments in Russia and Poland. On the next slides, I will briefly cover the operating segments, starting with corporate clients. Corporate clients, again, delivered a good performance with revenue 7% year on year and costs slightly lower. The main driver of the lower operating result was the risk result that was low in 2023. The same holds for the whole year. 5% higher revenues and 4% lower costs were offset by higher cost of risk due to the slower economy. Despite this headwind, the operating return on equity has remained above 20% with a very good cost income ratio of around 45%. TSBC Germany achieved a remarkable 51% increase in the operating result compared to Q3. It was driven by 11.6% higher revenues from broad-based growth and includes a revenue increase from Acrela Capital. There was also a benefit from the risk result that was that mainly came from model effects and a small release of the TLA. Costs were maintained on the level of the last year. Due to one-off bookings last year, the year-on-year comparison is not very meaningful, but also excluding the one-off, there's been a very noticeable improvement. For the full year, PSBC Germany increased their operating result by an impressive 56%. The drivers are the same as in the quarter, good revenue growth, significantly lower risk results, and almost flat costs. With RWA on almost the same level as last year, this led to an improvement of the operating return on equity by 13 percentage points to 34%. mBank continues to perform well on operating level with a 25% year on year increase in the operating result, excluding legal provisions. Compared to Q3, it is 5% lower, mainly due to higher costs from investments in growth. mBank has made further significant progress in reducing the legal risks from FX mortgages. The still outstanding mortgages are well provisioned for. In 2024, and the number of pending lawsuits for FX mortgages was reduced by a quarter to 16,000. In Q4, the number of new court cases was 63% lower than in Q4 2023. We therefore stick to our outlook that the burdens from FX loans should decrease materially in 2025. Finally, a quick look at others and consolidation. Others and consolidation had a slightly positive result of 15 million in the quarter. Interest income is lower due to internal effects that are neutral on group level. The better fair value result is a valuation effect from AT1 issuances in US dollars in Q4. In Q3, this effect was negative. As part of our strategy that we will present later today, we have decided to transfer the structured solutions and investments unit from treasury, in others in consolidation, to corporate clients. Thereby, we strengthen our customer franchise and increase the revenue potential. To first give you some background information, Others in consolidation employs 215 billion assets and 36 billion of RWA. Thereof, 17 billion RWA are corporate items of which around 4 billion are for DTAs and around 10 billion are buffers that were built in the context of reviews of our internal models. The buffers will be released this year as the issues covered are being implemented in the risk methodology. In the process, RWA of a similar size will be reallocated to the respective positions. The remaining 19 billion RWA are related to treasury activities. Most of the treasury assets are cash and liquidity reserves that we use to manage liquidity and regulatory requirements. These and related core treasury activities are responsible for approximately 5 billion of RWA. The remaining 14 billion RWA belong to structured solutions and investments, holding around 103 billion of assets. This consists of two parts. One part is 6 billion RWA of legacy assets. This is mostly long dated Italian government risk and other public sector related exposures. They are hold to collect positions and are run down in a value preserving manner. In the last four years, the portfolio was already reduced by one third. The other part is 8 billion RWA invested in high-quality assets. The purpose of these investments is to deploy our excess capital in a liquid and accretive manner until it can be redeployed, either in the business units for growth or to shareholders. As part of our strategy review, we have decided to move structured solutions and investments out of the corporate center to corporate clients. We see know-how and client coverage synergies with our capital markets team and believe that this will improve the management of the assets and lead to value accretion and higher P&L contribution going forward. As part of corporate clients, structured solutions and investments will also be subject to corporate science efficiency targets. On the slide, we have provided a pro forma for the transfer and we will report in the new structure from Q1 this year. I will now move to the RWA and capital development on the next slide. Following the inclusion of retained earnings in capital, the CET1 ratio reached 15.1%, well above our target of 13.5%. RWA increased quarter on quarter, mainly due to higher operational risk RWA, reflecting better operating revenues. For 2025, we target a lower CET1 ratio of at least 14%. As previously guided, with the help of buffer releases, we will not have a material RWA impact from Basel IV this year. The reduction of the ratio is due to expected RWA growth and the planned capital distribution to shareholders above 100%. The reason for the high distribution is that we plan to base the payout on the results before deduction of the one of restructuring charges we will book this year. This brings me to the end of the presentation. Let me summarize the key highlights. We have kept net interest income stable in 2024 and improved our starting position for 2025 thanks to a higher deposit base and growing loan volumes. We have grown our commission income by 7% and expect this momentum to continue in 2025. We have successfully managed our cost base. While 2025 will see around 5% higher costs, we have measures in place to manage cost increases down to around 2% midterm driven by investments. Our risk position remains resilient, and we expect only a moderate increase in the risk result despite the challenging economic environment. For 2025, we expect provisions for FX loans in Poland to be well below 2024 levels. And even more importantly, 2025 should be the last year with larger provisions for these FX loans. Overall, we are well positioned for 2025 and ready for the next step of our transformation with our momentum strategy, which we will present this afternoon. Thank you very much for your attention. Bettina and I are now looking forward to taking your questions on the 2024 financials.