10/29/2024

speaker
Alex Ogilevsky
Head of Investor Relations

Good morning, and welcome to the Corbian third quarter 2024 conference call. This morning, we published our Q3 and year-to-date results, and the press release and presentation can be found on our website, www.corbian.com, investor relations, financial publications. Before we begin, please note that today's discussion will include forward-looking statements based on current expectations and assumptions. These statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed. Factors beyond our control, including market conditions, economic changes, and regulatory actions, can impact outcomes. Corbian does not undertake any obligation to update statements made in this call or contained in today's press release and presentation. For more details on our assumptions and estimates, please refer to our annual reports. I'm Alex Ogilevsky, Head of IR, and with me on the call today are Olivier Rigaud, Chief Executive Officer, and Peter Kazius, Chief Financial Officer. Now, I would like to hand the call over to Olivier. Olivier?

speaker
Olivier Rigaud
Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Alex, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Carbion's Q3 and Year-to-Date Results 24, starting now with the key highlights. I'm pleased to report that our company continues to deliver outstanding results achieving accelerated organic sales growth of 2.6%, bringing sales for the first nine months of the year to 973 million euros. We saw a solid volume mix growth of 6.1% for the first nine months, driven by an outstanding Q3 with volume mix of 11.1%. We reached an adjusted EBITDA of 135.7 million, with Q3 alone contributing 49.6 million. In functional ingredients and solution, we continue to perform with positive volume mix growth, particularly driven by a strong demand in our specialty food ingredients, both in natural preservation and in our functional systems, while the softness in some biochemical markets persists. We are pleased to see continued growth in our product market adjacencies like dairy stabilizers, natural antioxidants, and natural mold inhibitors. Lactic acid volume to the PLA John Venture have grown both in year to date and Q3. The sales of the John Venture grew with 16% organically driven by volume. Likewise, in our health and nutrition segment, we achieved strong double digit growth, both sales and adjusted EBITDA primarily driven by the nutrition segment containing our algae fermentation products, omega-3 DHA. In Q3, we've seen double-digit growth in all our segments, nutrition, biomedical polymers, and pharma. On the financial front, I'm pleased to report a free cash flow of 50.8 million euro, excluding divestment proceeds. This strong cash generation underlines our commitment to financial discipline and operational excellence. Our restructuring plan is right on track, and I'm confident that it will continue to drive efficiency and profitability in the quarters ahead. Now, looking forward, today we upgraded our full year 2024 outlook. Whereas previously we guided for full year 2024 volume mix growth of 2% to 6%, we now guide for above 5%. Our previous adjusted EBITDA organic growth guidance was for more than 18%, and we upgrade that to 22% to 25%. Also, we upgrade our free cash flow from about 50 million by around 10 million to more than 60 million at year end. Our performance this quarter reflects the dedication and execution power of our team, the strength of our strategy, and the confidence we have in delivering value to all of our stakeholders. That concludes our prepared remarks and thanks you for the attention. Peter and I will be happy to take your questions. Alex, let's start the Q&A now.

speaker
Alex Ogilevsky
Head of Investor Relations

Sure. Thank you, Olivier. Call participants, if you'd like to ask a question on the call this morning, please press star one on your telephone, star one one, sorry, on your telephone and you'll be placed in the queue. Our first question this morning comes from Setu Sharda. from Barclays. Say to please go ahead.

speaker
Setu Sharda
Analyst, Barclays

Hi, thanks for taking my question. I have three questions. The first is on the food ingredient and solutions volume. The volume step up was quite impressive and implies around double digit food ingredients volume growth, despite underlying and market was weak. So how sustainable is this growth? And on the flip side, like the pricing was around 5% lower. So Is this the function of input cost or are you seeing increased competition in the space? And what is the impact on margins due to this price cut? My second question is on health and nutrition margins, which have sequentially ticked down despite strong volume growth. What is the delta here? And also, as you mentioned, some contracts are multi-year. Can you quantify how much is the multi-year and what is the percentage of spot which may be more sensitive to wild fish oil price dynamics. And my third question is around PLA JV. If the margin pressure is sustained, will the JV continue to produce at full capacity? And what happens to the JV's lactic acid demand from Corbion? Any risk of overcapacity there? And a related question, like if you can remind us how much of functional ingredient and solution lactic acid volume is currently going to JV? Thanks.

speaker
Olivier Rigaud
Chief Executive Officer

Okay, thanks. I will answer the first one on the food ingredient solution, and Peter will take the marginalization, and then we come back on the GV later. So first question around the volume in food ingredient. We see already since a few quarters a very good recovery. If you remember, we are trailing negative last year, and we came really close to breakeven know uh in q1 this year and and we upgraded in uh in q2 and have even a stronger q3 now we see this momentum in food continuing this is quite a nicely spread obviously as you know our major markets for food ingredients are primarily in the us and latin america these are the two strong regions for us but we see a good signals coming from the market with a good pipeline so we do not expect this to reverse. If you go to pricing, which was the other underlying questions there, obviously we've seen relaxation early this year related to input cost that we have to partially give back to the market. We've seen that price impact lowering on the second half of the year. Now, as we speak, we are getting to the price round for 2025. What we see, it's always a bit the same, is, of course, with a less differentiated product, a plain lactic acid, there is more competition than in more sophisticated derivatives, or we have high degree of differentiation. So, obviously, the competition is more intense on basic lactic acid, you know, that go to more commoditized markets. and a lot less in the other segments. So on the, let's say, Pisa, you mentioned on biochemicals, when we express also to see some softness, we speak primarily about two subsegments, one being electronics and the other being agrochemicals. Electronics, we mentioned that already for a while. It's not a huge business for us, but it's a profitable one. We've been down the cycle actually already for almost a year and a half now. Most of the end players were assuming, you know, back to growth in H2 this year, which now they mentioned more 25. We've not seen any recovery yet, except, you know, and this is very fresh, we start to see some better momentum as from October now in Q4, but it's still very soft. So I will not bang on the fact that, yeah, we've turned necessarily the corner in electronics there But this is the major part I'd like to mention into this biochem business. So just going back to also your question on the GV, on the lactic demand, to also answer that point as we are on this, in the functional green solution, we basically there count the sales of the lactic acid to the GV. which you know is really a longer-term agreement we have with a GV with a price formula where we have path through on input cost and energy so and yeah this fluctuates of course with the volume you know but but it has been you know in the lower 60 million sales per year on the total 1 billion sales of of the fifth business unit so it's not a massive amount as you can see Of course, as we are ramping up the GVs, ramping up sales, these numbers are going to increase. But, you know, we do not expect this to also become, if you make the math, you know, something sensibly above the 100 million mark in terms of business. Now, we'll hand over to Peter on the H&M margin and the PLA margin.

speaker
Peter Kazius
Chief Financial Officer

So, Satish, thanks for the questions. I mean, let's first do the health and nutrition margin and also your question about the longer-term contracts. So, as indicated earlier, we have some longer contracts in the LD part of the business or the nutrition part of the business. Think about two to three years going forward, locked at six prices. If you look to the margin profile, then Q3 is indeed mildly lower than Q2. By the way, it's higher than the Q1 element, and it's really driven by mix in our portfolio. And mix in our portfolio is two elements. It's customer mix in some of the segments, which is one. And it's also, if you look to the phenomenal growth in Q3 itself, it's driven by algae, which is having a nice margin, but a bit lower than the biomedical part. It's also good to know that in Q3 itself, all the subsegments and the subsegments in this business are nutrition, biomedical polymer, and pharma really delivered outstanding double-digit growth from that perspective. If I then go back to PLA and the margin in the joint venture itself, then indeed volumes are up. Sales is also up. But if you look to the combination of sales, then pricing is indeed lower, also lower than historically, and therefore the margin in this quarter is 4.5% in terms of EBDA. With the feasibility we currently have, we don't see this going up significantly to the double-digit levels in the coming quarters. And this is really driven by the pricing momentum in the PLA business itself.

speaker
Setu Sharda
Analyst, Barclays

I hope that answers the question. Yeah, thank you. That's quite helpful, yeah.

speaker
Alex Ogilevsky
Head of Investor Relations

Okay, thank you. Our next question this morning comes from Vim Hosta of KBC Securities. Vim, please go ahead.

speaker
Vim Hosta
Analyst, KBC Securities

Yes, thank you and good morning to all. I wanted to dig a little bit further into the full year guidance, which was upgraded, so if you look at the comments. But if you look what is implied in the new guidance, it is basically a Q4 that is, yeah, bumping around a similar level as the Q4 23 number. So I was wondering what makes you cautious uh given that yeah there was a phenomenal growth in three or four more than 40 percent on the ebitda and then uh just a flattish kind of q4 guidance seems cautious so if you can elaborate on on the reasons uh for for that and then um yeah i just wanted to also dig and maybe that's that's related into the cost elements going forward for q4 sugar freight things like that, so that would also be interesting. And then a final question would be on the joint venture, if I can come back to the margin pressure. Is that margin pressure that we see in Q3, is that due to previous longer-term contracts that are maturing and cannot be renewed at the old kind of pricing? Or is that just a reflection of increased pricing pressure that you are now starting to see in the market, and that will continue going forward. So if you can elaborate a little bit more, that would also be helpful.

speaker
Olivier Rigaud
Chief Executive Officer

Thank you. Okay. Thanks, Wim. And I'll let Peter answer the first two, and I will maybe comment also on market developments on PLA later.

speaker
Peter Kazius
Chief Financial Officer

So you're right that if you look year-to-date, our organic growth is 28, 28.7%. And in the full year, we got it mildly lower. So that means a lower growth rate in Q4. I think a couple of things to note there. One is, and that is more in the absolute amount, is that the absolute sales level in Q4 is normally lower than it is by seasonality. The other one is a bit in phasing, as we indicated, in health and nutrition. So health and nutrition, super strong growth in Q3. And we see a bit of phasing impact with Q4 as well. I mean, if you combine the both, we're on track with a bit of phasing impact in that one. Then, and this is a temporarily phenomenon which is impacting Q3 and also a bit in Q4, is that our freight rates went, up really the day in Thailand, Europe, in the middle of the year. And then normally in the P&L, it's having a bit of delay impact in Q3 and a bit of Q4. And the other one is really a bit of phasing impact in the cost structure, both in Q4 last year as well as in Q4 this year. So overall, I would say nothing to worry on that perspective. So those were the two, indeed. I hope that, yeah.

speaker
Olivier Rigaud
Chief Executive Officer

On the GV margin, Wim, so a couple of additions there. So on your first question, is that coming from a long-term contract maturing? The answer is not necessarily. We have a few longer-term agreements that indeed are quite protective right now as we speak. What's happening in terms of basically also geographical mix We said it last time, but actually most of the growth is coming today from Asia and particularly China, where prices are lower than in other regions, primarily Europe or the US. And what is really pulling demand, and it's a confirmation of what we've said in Q2 today, is primarily Asia and mostly China. where their competition is present, but not just on PLA, as well in some more traditional polymers, you know, we are fighting against being polystyrene primarily. So what we've seen, what the Jump Venture has seen is indeed because of their geographical mix and generating most of the growth from China is overall price erosion. that is impacting their profitability at a time where also, you know, we as Corbion are passing through increased input cost with some delays. So they are also having their lactic acid price reflecting, you know, the higher input costs we've seen over the last month. So that's a second driver, but it's primarily price. Now, let me also expand a bit on The outlook, what we see is indeed the volume is getting healthier. And if you look to the momentum, we are getting, of course, better, although exposed to China. And we anticipate the same for next year. So when we look to the joint venture forecast for next year, there is further volume increase, you know, next year with the same drivers. So, still very much loaded into Asia and China. So, that means also we do not expect a massive turnaround into the GV margin over the next quarters.

speaker
Vim Hosta
Analyst, KBC Securities

Okay. Understood. That's very clear. Thank you.

speaker
Alex Ogilevsky
Head of Investor Relations

All right. Thank you. Our next question this morning comes from Ferdinand Deboer from the Grof Peterkamp. Ferdinand? Yes, good morning.

speaker
Ferdinand Deboer
Analyst, Petercam

Yes, good morning. A couple of questions on my side. First, on the pricing in health and nutrition, more than up some 8% this quarter, a big step up versus the previous quarter. Could you elaborate a little bit on what's behind that? That's the first question. And then maybe coming back on the outlook, but not so much for 24% as more as for 25%. At your Capital Markets Day, you guided for an EBITDA of, I think, $225 million. I think there is still maybe some $12 million of stranded costs left for next year, so that would mean $213 million for 2025. Are you still comfortable with that one?

speaker
Peter Kazius
Chief Financial Officer

Let me pick the both questions, Fernand. So in health and nutrition, you're right that if you look to the pricing momentum in terms of percentage over last year, it is an increase. This is a reflection. It's a bit technical of the price increase we did earlier in the year, which in age one mainly came into volume mix because we changed basically our product content with DHA in the middle of last year. So, it's more a shift, I would say, from the mix element to the pricing element. So, the majority of this 8% is price increase within LG starting already earlier this year. If you look to the pricing during the quarters, it's relatively constant. If you look to 2025, there we're still confident that we deliver the numbers for the year 2025. I mean, we're currently in a more detailed budget process and then provide guidance how we normally do it in Q1 next year. But in terms of the programs we articulated to offset this trend, of course, we are on track.

speaker
Ferdinand Deboer
Analyst, Petercam

Maybe one also last question. um technically maybe you up your guidance for free cash flow um but at the same time and you also up your guidance for your ebda growth so i think that that goes hand in hand but then at the same time the leverage guidance is actually narrowed to the high end of the range where you should expect that that should come down to the low end of the range could you explain that

speaker
Peter Kazius
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, no, I can explain this. So we indeed narrowed the guidance where we currently are, whilst increasing the free cash flow guidance and indeed the EBDA. I think the key element of that one is also the share buyback, which we did of 20 million. This is having an 0.15 in the overall one. So we were quite confident we stayed within the range with all different indicators. But that is, I think, the key one if you compare it with the original guidance which we had earlier this year. If you currently see where we are, I mean, then we reduced the bandwidth from that perspective.

speaker
Ferdinand Deboer
Analyst, Petercam

But the share buyback you already knew at the half-year figures.

speaker
Peter Kazius
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, and we did not... narrow the guidance at that moment in time that's that's correct okay but it's not that because of forex movements that at the end of the day the higher the net that will be higher no if you look to it there's no significant forex impact free cash flow is perfectly on track what we thought and and so the answer is no from that perspective Also, if you look to forex, the majority in terms of net debt is U.S. dollar related. The U.S. dollar is relatively stable. I mean, if you treat, we saw a bit up and down, or down and up, depends a bit how you look. There is no significant impact in that one.

speaker
Ferdinand Deboer
Analyst, Petercam

Okay. Thank you very much.

speaker
Alex Ogilevsky
Head of Investor Relations

Okay. Thank you, Fernand. Our next question comes from Sebastian Brey from Barenberg. Sebastian, please go ahead.

speaker
Sebastian Brey
Analyst, Berenberg

Hello, hello. Good morning, and thank you for taking my questions. I'll start with the PLA joint venture, please. Can you remind me of the net debt of this JV? Because from memory, there was something like $100 million associated with it. And the EBITDA run right currently is something like $2 million on a quarterly basis. Is there any risk of this running into problems with covenants? I'm not entirely sure if that net debt figure is correct, but I just want to have a think about the leverage position. That's my first question.

speaker
Peter Kazius
Chief Financial Officer

I thought I'd wait for a second, but I will take this one, Sebastian. There's no risk in terms of covenant with the joint venture itself. If you look to the financing situation of the PLA joint venture, then you're right that the joint venture is 50-50 financed by both parents. That means both Total Energies as well as Corbion. And there is indeed around 60 million of loan on our balance sheet as well as an equity stake of around 30. So the numbers are indeed correct. You're right that if you look to the joint venture itself with the EBITDA level currently, then there is no risk in terms of this element.

speaker
Sebastian Brey
Analyst, Berenberg

Is the joint venture covering its interest charges or is it burning for cash at the current level of profitability?

speaker
Peter Kazius
Chief Financial Officer

No, so we still envision to get the interest basically out of the joint venture.

speaker
Sebastian Brey
Analyst, Berenberg

That's helpful, thank you. Can I ask a more philosophical question about PLA? Are you in this business because you want to be, or are you in this business because you feel you have to be, as it's a large offtake from the Thai plant, the 125 kiloton lactic acid facility brought online a few quarters ago?

speaker
Olivier Rigaud
Chief Executive Officer

It's indeed a very difficult question, Sebastian. If I may, if you look again at how the market of lactic acid is being split, before the PLA market cracked down, lactic to PLA came to roughly 40% of the lactic acid market potential. It has reduced a bit in between, but all indicators shows that midterm, this is getting back up. So for us, I think at a time when we developed PLA as another derivative, that was the aim to find as many outlets and how we would play in there. It is indeed a very nice plant filler for the tie capacity as you know you make really your profit running at max capitalization and we see ultimately you know this as a as a very nice addition to what is the largest electric plant in the world if you think once we have you know the all capacity fully uh fully occupied uh and and the gv is really i think a best way for us to constantly max out the throughput of that plant now what we made clear in the last capital market update is that yeah we will not build any further lactic acid capacity to accommodate the PLA market. This is not what we are in. But I think this GV on the site with an over-defense supply is the right thing for this large lactic acid site. But this is where we would, for the time being, really stop.

speaker
Sebastian Brey
Analyst, Berenberg

That's helpful. Thank you. My last one is on the algae business. How are the efforts to enter the human nutrition market again going in this business? And the reason that I ask is my suspicion is there's not a lot more volume left to grow with existing capacity for 25. And that means the earnings growth is a function of two things, assuming constant raw materials in that year. One is mix, and the second is price. My feeling is that your company probably doesn't have that much more scope to push prices in the year. and that leaves mix as the swing factor. From memory, Corbion tried once and failed to establish itself in human nutrition. Why would this time be different for Augie?

speaker
Olivier Rigaud
Chief Executive Officer

So if you look at our approach in human nutrition as we discussed before, you know we are well ahead in the journey of this investment of 50 million, 5-0. million euro where a big part of his investment in a brazilian plant is to upgrade the mix to be able to supply the human nutrition market as it requires different uh you know purification and type of omega-3s so we are really well ahead basically uh because we've had already a pilot productions to reference the product across the market globally and we kick that off already uh you know, early this summer, last summer, getting approval, but basically it's about really getting that additional capability and capacity in the plan that we've built with this investment, which we aim to complete early 2025. Now, back to, indeed, I don't know what happened in the past in human nutrition, but what, you know... having run myself the GV between Naturex and Acker Biomarin and Omega-3 in the past, you know, the Omega-3 market in human is primarily a US market. This is where the big size of the price is. And we don't go directly to the end user. You have to go through the people that basically are the key players to supply the vitamin shops, the GNCs, the Holland and Barrett's of this world. So we've built a relationship with all these players so far. So we are really confident that we're going to get some breakthrough in 2025. So that's what we're working on.

speaker
Sebastian Brey
Analyst, Berenberg

That's helpful. Thank you for taking my questions.

speaker
Alex Ogilevsky
Head of Investor Relations

OK, our next question this morning comes from Robert Jan Vos from ABN AMRO, AutoBHF. Robert Jan, go ahead.

speaker
Robert Jan Vos
Analyst, ABN AMRO

Yes, thank you. Hi, good morning, all. I have a couple of questions left. um first on the pla joint venture um if i'm not mistaken you are you reported the lowest quarterly ebitda margin for the jv this quarter since at least 2019 i would assume that you're probably not in this business for an ebitda margin four and a half percent and that also does not seem to be short-term issue considering your outlook so my question is what could be the strategic implications for the jv of this uh currents and also to continue sluggish performance? That's my first question.

speaker
Olivier Rigaud
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, Robert-Jan, if I can take this one. Basically, when we look at it and, you know, obviously, I think there is high visibility on the joint venture performance, don't get me wrong, but, you know, we are primarily, the Cobia members do sell lactic acid to the GV, and this is what is being consolidated in our number, and this is where You know, we want to make sure we get the volume of the right price for us because it's a very interesting deal we have, which is another defense supply. Now, back to the more strategic questions. It's a bit premature to answer as, you know, 2025 is the last year of Advance 2025, the strategic period. We are planning to get into a new strategic review next year. So for sure, we're going to come back to the market by the end of next year. with whatever we're going to come back with at that time. And obviously part of the exercise is to review the entire portfolio.

speaker
Robert Jan Vos
Analyst, ABN AMRO

Okay, that's very clear. Then my second question, maybe a bit of clarification on the guidance that you provided at CMD. Fernand already alluded to this, but in this presentation, you provided an EBITDA guidance in a range of 217 to 236, midpoint being 226. I always understood that the costs related to the disposed emulsifier business would have been fully absorbed. So isn't it so that this guidance range does not change in the new setting? Maybe, Peter, you can answer this question, because I was not aware that the Yeah, go ahead, sorry.

speaker
Peter Kazius
Chief Financial Officer

Oh, so happy to answer this one, Robert-John. So yes, you're absolutely right from that perspective. So what we guided to was at that moment in the core, this 50% to 20% range, that you come to this number. And the plan is to fully offset these stranded costs by the actions we also discussed basically earlier in the call. So from that perspective, the result of Q3 is not impacting anything for the outlook 2020.

speaker
Robert Jan Vos
Analyst, ABN AMRO

So the midpoint of that range is still 226, and you just confirmed that you still think that it is feasible to achieve that in 2025.

speaker
Alex Ogilevsky
Head of Investor Relations

Correct.

speaker
Robert Jan Vos
Analyst, ABN AMRO

Okay, that is also very clear. Thank you. And maybe also a question, a clarification question. In the paragraph on health and nutrition, you guide for lower growth in Q4. High single digits, you mentioned. I assume that that is meant for the whole division, or was this comment just for the nutrition segment within the division?

speaker
Peter Kazius
Chief Financial Officer

This comment is meant for the whole division, health and nutrition, because normally we don't guide on specific elements within health and nutrition. So read this is for the whole health and nutrition part of the portfolio.

speaker
Robert Jan Vos
Analyst, ABN AMRO

Okay. Again, very clear. Thank you.

speaker
Alex Ogilevsky
Head of Investor Relations

Okay. Thank you. Our next question this morning comes from Karel Zota from Kepler Chevro. Karel, please go ahead.

speaker
Karel Zota
Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Yes, thanks. Good morning all. I have two questions. The first one is on the progress with the fixed cost savings program. Can you update us where we stand? I think early June there's been some progress there. What's happened since? The second question is on volume leverage within the functional ingredients and solutions business. There's very strong volume growth, still margins. stable ish quarter on quarter you mentioned you took some some costs in there as well so if you can speak a bit about volume leverage and maybe then a final question is you highlighted the new factory in Thailand this is performing well and when it comes to the benefits of this to the to the bottom line is this more 2025 impact or are we starting to see somewhat of an effect already thank you

speaker
Peter Kazius
Chief Financial Officer

Let me pick them. Thanks for the questions, Carol. So in terms of, let me start with fixed cost. That's progressing well. As we indicated in H1, we reduced already 130 FTEs during the course of H1. And we then plan to do a sequential one during the course of Q3, which we also did. And one of the other exercises which we indicated was the mothballing of Peoria. So well on track from that perspective. If you look on pylons, then you're right, as we always indicated, that the new factory and the impact in terms of the bottom line improvement really anticipated to be in 2025. And the one on volume leverage depends always a bit when you look quarter over quarter, year over year. So in terms of if you look to the absolute sales levels, Q2, Q3, they are around at the same level from that perspective. So then quarter over quarter, there's kind of a minimal volume leverage. And you're also right that, as we indicated in H2, that sugar prices are on the downward journey, meaning Q3 being lower than Q2, with an offset of this freight rate. And this freight rate we also see a bit in Q4, and then it should normally fully kind of normalize later, the quarter after that. So that gives a bit of the dynamic overall of the margin development.

speaker
Karel Zota
Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Thank you. If I may, can I ask one follow-up question? You already mentioned the header-stranded cost and the projects there being on track. Can you go over some of the major projects that should support the P&L next year where you already made clear plans or see initial progress?

speaker
Olivier Rigaud
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, Carol, I can take this one. Basically, we have big projects around the product portfolio rationalization. So basically, we look at, as usual, the tail. SKU simplification is another that goes closely together. So we are reviewing also all that and the benefit associated to that. We are also having a very deep approach to procurement And we've been working also with external support on new digital tools on e-tendering, amongst others, that we kicked off in Q4 for the 25 procurement round. That's another big initiative. And last but not least, we are looking at pricing as well, also in terms of indeed how differentiated can we go by product line portfolio slash, you know, be used. So that's another one. And obviously we are constantly looking at all the other fixed cost element and primarily personal cost as we go, making sure that we reallocate resources instead of adding. And so these are really the five major blocks that we are after. But in total, we are tracking with the transformation office, 52 initiatives, you know, on that program to compensate for the stranded cost. So we've appointed a transformation leader that is part of the executive committee reporting directly to me to track that on a biweekly basis. So this is how we run the program.

speaker
Karel Zota
Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Super, thanks for the call.

speaker
Alex Ogilevsky
Head of Investor Relations

Okay, our next question is from Reg Watson from ING. Reg, please go ahead.

speaker
Reg Watson
Analyst, ING

Thank you. Morning all. Just to come back to Setu's question on the split of contracts in algae, I may have missed the answer. I may have got lost in the melee of several questions. But what was the split again, please, between spot two year and three year in terms of algae volume sales? That's my first follow up on Setu's. And then I've got some of my own.

speaker
Olivier Rigaud
Chief Executive Officer

So if I can take this one again, we don't give the exact number, but you can see that we have a good two-thirds of business that is contracted long-term on our agriculture business. The rest is more standard practice, yearly contracts.

speaker
Reg Watson
Analyst, ING

Okay, so you're not going to tell us what the mix is, so we can't actually forecast it? when these contracts are going to roll off?

speaker
Olivier Rigaud
Chief Executive Officer

I think that would be competitively sensible, you know, if we would disclose more our contract positions, which we're not keen to do. Right, okay, fair enough, fair enough.

speaker
Reg Watson
Analyst, ING

And then on to the gypsum-free lactic acid plant. Obviously, it's still in ramp-up at the moment. Can you give us any indication of what sort of utilization rates you're running at, how that's going versus plan? And then the third question, when you expect to be at full capacity?

speaker
Olivier Rigaud
Chief Executive Officer

So we've been running this again without going to too many technicals. We've been ramping up by sequence from 20% to 40% capacity occupation. So we've been at that level. We've been also looking to optimization, which is part of our process, which we are doing currently right now. So our aim then is, again, to ramp up really fully next year. The sooner the better, I have to say. Now, if I see the level of reliability that is important for us, is, you know, getting to, as you know, in this type of plant, you know, at 70, 80% capacity occupation in theory, you know, what we're going to aim for to make sure that we ramp up in a reliable way. So that's the plan for next year.

speaker
Reg Watson
Analyst, ING

Okay, that's really helpful. Thank you. And then just finally to circle back on Fernand's question about cash flow and EBITDA guidance going up but leverage guidance going down. You knew at the half year, Peter, that the share buyback, the special dividend and the increased ordinary dividend were all going to have this impact on your debt levels. You didn't know at the half year that you were going to have a blowout Q3. So why did you decide not to adjust the guidance at the first half, but you have decided to adjust the guidance now?

speaker
Peter Kazius
Chief Financial Officer

If you look overall, then we indeed did not adjust it during the half year one because the reality is we were spot on in this guidance, which we are also now. We titled it Driven Where We Currently Are because it makes no sense to have a much wider range following all the other updates we did.

speaker
Reg Watson
Analyst, ING

Right. OK. That's really helpful. Thank you. Appreciate it.

speaker
Alex Ogilevsky
Head of Investor Relations

OK. And that's it for questions today. Olivier, did you want to make some closing remarks?

speaker
Olivier Rigaud
Chief Executive Officer

First of all, I'd like to thank everyone to join this call. And basically, we will revert back to you early next year for the full year results. So thank you really for joining us today. Wish you a good end of the year and speak early next year to all of you. Thank you.

speaker
Alex Ogilevsky
Head of Investor Relations

Operator, you may end the call. Thank you.

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