Contl Ag S/Adr

Thank you, Operator, and welcome everyone to our first quarter 2024 results presentation. Today's call is hosted by our CFO, Katia Garcia-Vila. A small reminder that both the press release and presentation of today's call are available for download on our Investor Relations website. Before starting, we'd like to remind everyone that this conference call is for investors and analysts only. If you do not belong to either of these groups, please kindly disconnect now. Following the presentation, we will conduct a question and answer session for sell-side analysts. To provide a chance for all to ask questions, we would like to ask you to limit yourself to not more than three questions. This will help us conclude the call on time. With this, let me now hand you over to Katja. Thank you, Anna.

A warm welcome to you all. It's good to be here with you today. So let's jump straight in on page number three. Starting on page 3, as you saw with our pre-release on April 16, we had a soft start to 2024. Our results, although expected, were burdened by weak markets, especially in Europe, and FX effects across all sectors. Automotive was impacted by the significant portion of agreed 2023 pricing not rolling over into 2024. Our negotiations here are currently still ongoing. We see first progress. We target to finalize the agreements as soon as possible without sacrificing quality. Of course, we are aiming to have them agreed on a sustainable level, but this is something we can only comment on once we are done and the agreements are signed. Despite a weak first quarter, we are confident that the year will play out like it has over the last two years with improvements through the year, negotiation results re-established in our prices, and our cost-saving measures kicking in. On this basis, we confirm our guidance. For tires, we see the chance to be in the corridor for H1 as a whole, while for ContiTech, we expect the second half of the year to bring the tailwind from our self-help measures, enabling us to achieve our guidance. With that said, let's look at a few of the numbers. On group level, we came in at 9.8 billion euro sales with an adjusted EBIT margin of 2%. Our free cash flow on the year-on-year comparison showed some improvements in working capital while being burdened by the special one-time effect of the payment for the repurchase of the Contitech AG shares, which happened in Q1, bringing us to the approximately minus 1.1 billion euro result. To our last topic on the page, I am pleased to reiterate what we have announced on the 25th of April. The Public Prosecutor's Office of Hanover has closed the fine proceedings against Continental AG. Continental accepted the decision and will not be taking the matter to appeal. The fine will not lead to any significant additional impact on earnings in fiscal 2024, thanks to a provision set aside for this purpose in previous years. On the basis of and in accordance with existing contractual provisions, Vitesco Technologies is in this respect generally obligated to indemnify Continental against the ensuing costs and liabilities. This follows the principle that all opportunities as well as risks from the transferred business are passed to Vitesco Technologies as part of its spin-off. While this I am pleased to say we complete the investigations and can now pivot our focus to our daily business, which includes the continuous strengthening of our integrity pillar throughout the organization. Now let's move to the details on each sector level, moving now to page four. Beginning with automotive, here the year-on-year comparison, we see the top line burdened by the effects I mentioned, volumes, pricing, and effects, resulting in a negative organic growth of 2.4%. The adjusted EBIT margin was particularly hard by the pricing topic, as well as this year's labor inflation effects, which was bundled into the pricing negotiations. Now to tires on the sales side, we also came in lower than the comparative quarter, with a negative organic sales result stemming from the headwinds of FX, as well as volume and price mix effect. On the adjusted EBIT side, we were also below the comparative quarter 2023, coming in at 11.7%. For Contitech, the top line was burdened by weak industrial and automotive markets, as well as negative FX and pricing effects, showing in the organic growth versus the comparative quarter. The adjusted EBIT margin was burdened accordingly, as well as by the mixed effect and labor inflation, which led us to a 5.4 result. not satisfactory at all, even if we did anticipate the challenging start to this year. Let's look further into the best sector details starting with automotive on page five. As a reminder, we do not report on our business area smart mobility anymore. Last year, in our capital market day, we announced this solution explaining that a considerable amount of its sales, roughly 50%, would go into autonomous mobility with the rest being split between architecture and networking, receiving around 30%, and software and central technologies, receiving around 20%. On this basis, we report our software and central technologies business area for the first time. To support a like-for-like comparison, we present the first quarter 2023 figures also following the new structure on a pro forma basis. On the top line, autonomous mobility and architecture and networking delivered solid organic growth year on year, while safety and motion was down in line with our market exposure. In the software and central technologies and user experience business areas, we were impacted particularly by the geographic mix and unfavorable customer call-offs. This and ramp-up delays, or some with a softer start than anticipated, led to less content delivered in the quarter versus the comparative period. FX effects were a burden for all sectors. For automotive, we had a negative 1.6% impact. For the quarterly comparison, we see especially the burden from pricing. Compared to the first quarter 2023, we could, unlike this year, already report on at least some concluded agreements. Finally, the regionally weighted global market development, as well as delayed ramp-ups combined, led to an overall unfavorable dynamic. On the adjusted EBIT side, while we benefited from small improvements in premium freight versus the comparative quarter, the result was neutralized by the R&D net base effect, as we did not have the same pull in our R&D reimbursement payments in this quarter. Finally, the price drop-through effect and additional labor inflation effects weighed us down in the first quarter. Despite this difficult start to the year, we are confident in our plan and that our extensive measures will bring us into the guidance corridor for the full year. On that basis, we confirm the guidance for automotive. How will we achieve it? Volumes in the second quarter waited for our regional footprint are expected to positively contribute. And for the sales help, I would like to reference to the bridge we gave you back in March. This is our roadmap for how we will get it done. Firstly, starting with operating leverage. Here we have two levers we are working with. Firstly, establishing again fair pricing with our customers for our solutions through negotiations, which includes the additional labor inflation that we anticipate this year. We have started the negotiations with our customers, and even though they are tough, we are confident that we will solve these issues with our customers in a sustainable factory and sustainable metal. Secondly, through outperforming the market with our solution mix. Despite the cooler than expected ramp up of new vehicles in the first quarter, we still expect those platforms to go into production, though it's too early in the year to be able to give more information. Perhaps a tangible example here can help to underline this confidence. We have just published a press release on our extensive technological contribution to the new Mercedes E-Class. From our leading smart digital access system to our powerful long-range radars, our telematic control unit that manages the communication in and out of the vehicle, and a lot more. Even the tires and interior surfaces come from us. All that shows we are a strong partner to our customers' ambition for smarter, safer, and more autonomous driving. to operational excellence, where improvements will continue to come from our razor-sharp focus. Our incremental efficiency improvements in manufacturing and overall stabilizing supply chain enables us to continue to influence positively premium freights. We had improvements also in this quarter. From today's perspective and our current assumptions, we are confident that we will achieve the savings as planned. And finally, to our last bridge element, our fixed cost reduction program. On February 14th, we announced that we are consolidating our footprint in the Rhine mine area to further optimize and streamline administrative and R&D functions. This is part of the overall fixed cost reduction program, which will affect a total of around 5,400 positions worldwide. The complete program is in the execution phase. We also announced our automotive program to improve R&D efficiency with the reduction of 1,750 positions worldwide. Additionally, we will increase our efficiency and pool our research and development activities to improve our long-term competitiveness and achieve our R&D to sales target ratio of 9% midterm. Although we will not yet see significant savings in the R&D efficiency program this year, rather from 2025 onwards, we do anticipate already a high double-digit to a low triple-digit net effect from our administrative streamlining project in 2024 with the rest of the savings in 2025. Now to slide six. Let's look at how we performed market by market. European production was particularly weak in the first quarter with key customer vehicle launches delayed further, hindering our performance in the region. However, we still came out slightly ahead. In North America, we see two factors affecting the majority of our performance here. In addition to the negative ramp up, ramp down situation, which we already addressed, the first being customer affordability, where the combination of pricing, interest rates, and credit levels are affecting vehicle equipment with latest technology. Secondly, market inventory levels are nearing target volumes, so the potential volume upside is reduced. China produced a stronger market growth. However, on the automotive electronics side, we can only benefit to a limited extent from this market dynamic, given the customers driving this growth. We do have solid sales with both Chinese and international OEMs in China, including being in the ramp-up phase with another Chinese OEM in the strategic high-performance computer business. Looking to our future on page seven, you can see we achieved an order intake of 4.6 billion euros for the quarter. Starting with our strategic growth business area autonomous mobility, of the 1.9 billion euros in total, the majority of which is attributed to one large win for our next generation surround radars, which also includes the additional software functions of rear cross traffic assist, including braking, side blind zone alert, including trailer extension, door-open warning, and lane change assist. In our other growth area, architecture and networking, our team demonstrated our technology leadership in the area of smart device-based access and vehicle start solutions with wins totaling approximately 1.6 billion euros across several customers. And finally, we'd like to highlight the awards of our safety and motion team, bringing in close to a billion euro worth of new business in solutions such as airbag control units and latest generation brake systems. Now, let's move to tires on page eight. The numbers show an overall muted performance for this first quarter. Our sales of approximately 3.3 billion euros were affected by headwinds from FX of approximately negative 2.5%, and from lower volumes. We experienced continuing weak developments in truck and passenger car OE markets, especially in Europe. In the first quarter, we had fewer working days compared to last year due to an extra weekend in March and the Easter break in Europe that significantly impacted our sales. We do this effect see reversing in April though. Finally, negative effects from cost indexations in the quarter coupled with the weak truck market led to slightly negative contribution from price mix. So, as you can see, it was a rather tough environment for the first quarter. Looking to the adjusted EBIT side, we had negative drop through from the effects, cost indexation and volume effects, while having a slight tailwind from material which compensated for the inflationary effects on the cost side. Looking towards the second quarter, we see already a strong April and thus do foresee higher sales and margin. H1 overall looks promising to be in the guidance corridor. With the current view and assumptions in mind, we confirm our guidance for tires for the full year. Finally, let's check in now with Contitech and their first quarter performance on page nine. Day two, we're not immune from the challenging start to the year. weak industrial and automotive markets, combined with an unfavorable geographical mix for the business and effects effects of negative 1%, led us to the sales result of 1.6 billion euros for the quarter. Similarly, on the bottom line, we had dropped through from the negative volume and mixed effect, as well as burdens from labor cost inflation. I would like to adhere that during this year, we do expect the inflationary effects to be compensated by results coming through on the cost management side. We will keep you informed on that as the year progresses. Also here, despite the challenging start, we are confident to catch up on the back of a potential recovery in the industry in the second half of the year, as well as from overall self-help improvements, particularly on the automotive side of the business. However, these cost efficiencies and negotiations will show their effect only during the course of this year. Consequently, we confirm our guidance also for Contitech. Now let's move on to our first quarter results for adjusted free cash flow on page 10. Important message here is that we improved operationally in the quarter over quarter comparison. The overall result includes the one time special effect of the Contitech AG share repurchase. This 500 million effect is included in the total €1,086 million negative, so overall for us a good result for the first quarter of the year and fully in line with our own expectations. We are on track and I confirm our full year guidance here too. So let's move now to the outlook for our main markets on page 11 and let me start with the statement that based on today's view we confirm our market guidance. Perhaps Let me just say a few words to some of the topics on the page. Firstly, to the North American passenger vehicle replacement tire market, which you can see was well ahead in the first quarter this year. We do, however, anticipate that when looking at the full year, our corridor still looks reasonable. Secondly, to commercial vehicle production. We adjust our outlook range for Europe to the weaker than expected outlook by minus 1% in the midpoint. While for North America, we adjust to the more positive outlook of the market to the new range of minus 1% to plus 1%. Finally, to truck replacement tires in North America, plus 16% in the first quarter. Here, the market was buoyed by imports from Asia in advance to the change in anti-dumping duties anticipated to come into effect around the summertime. Like you, we will closely monitor the markets as they each develop this year. Finally, to our guidance for 2024 on page 12. Even with this challenging start and difficult market environment, from today's perspective, we, the Continental team, remain confident that our self-help measures will have the needed effect. And therefore, for the group, as well as for each individual sector, we confirm our guidance. So with that, I'd like to now hand over the rest of the time to you. Operator, could you please open the line for the Q&A?

The first question comes from Horst Schneider, Bank of America. The line is open.

Yes, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Hello, Katja. Hello, team. I have got a few. Of course, the most interesting for me is also automotive. I mean, we were all a little bit shocked about this Q1 result. So therefore, I mean, first of all, I would be curious to know if has that hit you by surprise or basically is Q1 something new? that was in line with your expectations so that you can also stick now to the guidance. So the other question then of course would be, do we talk now really still about the guidance range or you rather hope to achieve the lower end of the guidance range after the rather weak Q1? And then lastly, it would be helpful basically to understand the year-over-year changes, maybe also sequential changes. I mean, I'm just seeing on your slides that this place was pretty weak. So there were some sub-segments which had pretty weak revenue growth. I understand there was also a pricing element, but did we get a little bit better feeling for the bridge, basically, from a year-on-year perspective? Was it all price, or was it a mixture of volume, price, and maybe also cost to some extent still?

Okay, yeah. Hi, Horst. Nice to talk to you. Let me start with your first question on the automotive result. I think if you recall it, already in Q4, we told you that our expectation for the year 2024 would be to follow pretty much the same structures that we already have seen in 2023. So we already indicated that we expected the first quarter to be the weakest quarter of the year 2024. The total amount that we are facing now, I wouldn't say was a surprise to us, but a lot of things came together at that point in time. For example, delayed ramp-ups in the production at our customer sites, which we did not expect exactly at this point in time, that we would have to renegotiate pricing. We also said that clearly at our annual press conference, that there would be a significant portion that we would have to renegotiate, not rolling over from 2023, so that was an expectation for us. So overall, the magnitude was for sure not entirely foreseen for the first quarter, but overall the effects that we saw, certain expectations we had around it. Coming to your question regarding the guidance range, we confirmed the full range of the guidance laws because we do see that we have a lot in our portfolio at the moment to be able to confirm the guidance to its full extent, also to its full range extent. We are in good pricing negotiations with our customers at the moment. We do see some positive market developments. Our mix will develop positively. And we've always said that the second quarter would be stronger than the first. The second half would be stronger than the first half anyway. This is the reason why I'm really confident to be able to confirm the full guidance range also for the automotive side, despite the lower start. And your second question was about the changes, what happened year over year. I think for user experience, it is really visible that especially in that area where we are facing a lot of ramp-ups of our new technology in the vehicles, we are also over-proportionately hit by the delay of the ramp-ups or slower than expected ramp-ups on the user experience side. So that was one of the reasons for user experience. The quarter-over-quarter comparison, you already indicated it during your question, is that pricing definitely does play a role. In the first quarter of last year, we already had some agreements fixed for the year. This time, we were not able to do that, so we are in negotiations now, and I look positive to the results of these negotiations, but that was definitely also a quarter-over-quarter difference.

But you didn't book additional provisions, Katja, right? So that was a special element in Q1. That's not the case.

We didn't book any special provisions in the quarter.

Okay. And when we now look at the range and you say that the 3 to 4% is still achievable, Q2 stronger than Q1 understood, H2 stronger than H1 also understood. But does that mean basically that as of Q3, for sure you will be at least again within the range respectively in order to achieve now the upper end of the range you of course need to be above it right so but but that's the way how we should think about it correct but if you if you compare the development of of the past of the past years yeah

We've always seen that we had always a stronger and stronger and stronger development that manifests. I can't tell you exactly what and when to expect the exact amounts and figures, but what I can say is that looking at the current development and looking at all that we have seen in the past is exactly what we expected for this year and that we are on a good way to work our way through the year.

Okay. I keep fingers crossed for you. Thank you. Good luck.

Let me just say one more thing, because I was wondering why you asked about provisions. Booking provisions is something that we do on a regular basis, yeah? So there were no special things beyond anything else that we haven't had in prior quarters during the course of the last years.

Okay. Thanks for clarification.

Next question comes from Sanjay Bhagwani City.

Hello, thank you very much for taking my question also. I have three questions. The first one is actually a follow-up to Horst's question. So maybe if you could please provide a bit more color on, so if I understood it correctly, the pricing of the last year for North rolled over. So that means this year you negotiated the prices, which was the inflation of the last year and inflation of this year. And on the top of that, maybe inflation also was a bit front-loaded this year. So maybe can you please provide some color on if there is some magnitude of impact in this Q1 margin, if you can help us quantify a little bit of range here that how much of that is to do with this timing of the cost versus pricing negotiation. And then... How are you seeing the progress so far in Q2 on pricing? And are you going for a bit more sustainable price increases this time or not? So that is my first question, and I'll just follow up with the next one, if that is okay.

Okay, that was a very long question. I hope I can get it all, Sanjay. So we already sat in the forefront. quarter result presentation that we will have a significant portion of pricing agreed in 2023 that would not roll over into 2024. This is exactly what happened. And this is a major effect in the first quarter. In addition, we also said that we would have approximately 500 million of cost inflationary headwinds, mostly coming from wages and salary increases. And out of that, Approximately half of it is attributable to automotive, and this already half to a quarter manifested in the first quarter. It will probably be stable quarter by quarter to achieve the overall 250 million. So all of that have hit us in the profitability in the first quarter, comparing it to the Q1 also of last year. What we are doing at the moment is that we are back in negotiations with our customers, and I would say we are on a good way. Our target is for sure to establish a satisfactory and sustainable pricing moving forward.

Thank you. So if I understood it correctly, this year we are talking about Q1 wage inflation, which is roughly one-fourth of the $250 million. maybe more like $62 million or something like that. And plus you have to negotiate the inflation of last year that was somewhere around $250 million. So that's probably the gross inflation in Q1. And then on the top of that, the pricing pass-throughs, you have not seen any or you have already seen some pricing pass-throughs?

I have not understood everything. So the $250 million will be evenly spread more or less across the quarter. So the first hit was definitely there, plus the effect from the not rolling over price establishing from last year. Yes.

Okay. So maybe coming on to the second question. So understood Q2 margins better than Q1 and then H2 better than H1. But a bit more color on this, if you can provide. Can we already see the Q2 margins being at least in the positive territory? based on your negotiation as we stand now?

I really have a little difficulty in understanding because of the line you're in. I think you asked if the Q2 will be better. Yes, the Q2 will be better, and we are definitely working hard on getting it on getting it into the expected level, which also means a significant improvement compared to the first quarter.

Thanks, Katya. So actually, my question is, if Q2 margins could already be positive territory, they can be above zero?

Depending on the outcome of our pricing negotiations, I would say yes.

Thank you. And just a final question on the organic growth outperformance. So user experience and software technologies is somewhere we have seen underperformance. How should we think of this? If you can provide some example on other specific regions or customers where there are these ramp-up delays. And overall on the group automotive organic growth outperformance, do you still think the goals is possible from around 3% to 5% in line with your mid-term target.

So I think for user experience, I already said that this is really burdened, that that was especially burdened by the ramp-up and ramp-down effects. So that was definitely on the user experience side with the delayed ramp-up of new vehicles. This is an effect that we've seen in the first quarter, but we do expect that effect not to stay there. during the course of this year. With regards to software and central technologies, there were some service contractors were a little down in the first quarter, but also here. You know, we do have a pretty strong portfolio to offer in that area, which is very much demanded in the market at the moment. So I also do see that not to be a sustainable effect throughout the year.

Thank you. That is very helpful.

The next question comes from Ross MacDonald, Morgan Stanley.

Thanks, Katja. It's Ross at Morgan Stanley. Three questions from me, please. Firstly, on inventories, could you please provide some colour around how you see inventory levels at the group progressing from here, whether there's still some scope for further destocking? And then specifically on semiconductor inventories, there has been a destock happening in the industry. Would that be a theme that in play for Continental and whether you see a further destock of semi-equipment moving forward. Thank you.

I think that was just one topic. You've seen that in a quarter-over-quarter comparison, we've really significantly improved also on the working capital side and that contributed to, let's say, operationally better cash flow performance. in the first quarter and we do see further opportunities here and work hard with our smart inventory program to continuously work on an optimal setup of our working capital moving forward. So yes, we do see more opportunities on that side for us in Quentin and Ty.

Thank you. Sorry, I left a space there. I'll give the next two questions if that's okay. The second question is on tyres. Just be curious on the truck market in particular if you're seeing any green shoots in that market that would support a recovery from here and perhaps you can remind us what share of tyre revenues you expect to be coming from trucks this year. And then final question, just on the product assault really that's coming in the second half, a lot of OEMs talking about this rich pipeline of new products. Can you potentially remind us how Continental is reimbursed by OEMs if the take rates are actually lower than is being forecast by the industry. Are those reimbursements something that is formulaic in nature or is that something that also has to be renegotiated every year? Thank you.

Okay, so let me first start with the truck market. So the truck market is currently a very difficult market and you saw us also also being muted on our sales side in the truck market in the first quarter. So far, the market we expect to stay more difficult, in fact, during the course of this year. So there's no specific jump that I can give you. I have to admit that with regards to the revenues that we expect from the truck business overall this year, I don't have a final figure for you at the moment. I have to admit that I don't have a final figure on the expected contribution in the course of this year on the sales side. Sorry for that. The reimbursement in the delay of the product launches, that is a difficult topic. In some contracts, there are already fixed ranges until when you get compensation for shortfalls in the And the volumes, sometimes they are limited to the entire lifetime of the contract. Sometimes they are on a yearly basis. Sometimes you have to negotiate them. But overall, I think that is something that we are pretty experienced in now and that we know how to do it and how to deal with the respective customer that might be affected by that. So it depends on that.

Thanks, Katja. Maybe just to follow up on the tires piece, if I could reword the question then, it seems like the recovery you're expecting in tires is mostly a replacement passenger car from here. Would that be fair?

That would be a fair statement, yes.

Thank you.

Next question comes from Monica Bozio in Teza, Sao Paulo.

Yes, good morning and thanks for taking my question. The first one is on the automotive business. You confirmed your organic growth outperformance target in the range of 3-5%. I'm just wondering, do you expect the outperformance will be more back and loaded or could we imagine some outperformance already from the second quarter of the year? And if yes, if you can elaborate more on this. The second question is on tires. You're expecting a reversal of the negative effect in the first quarter already from April, mainly due to the less working days. But I'm just wondering, do you expect positive volumes for the second quarter for tires? also on the back of what you have just said on the tractile business. And what about the price mix? Should we expect a positive price mix already from the second quarter as the impact of indexation will be over? And the very last question is on the reduction on premium freight. You had a small sport in the fourth quarter. How can we imagine the reduction of premium freight across the next quarter? Thank you very much.

Okay, let me see. Will the outperformance be more back-end loaded? I would say looking also at the market expectations in the different markets, I would say that we rather have a stronger performance in the second half of the year, and we will see where within this outperformance rate we will find in the end. We do see us outperforming the markets, but to what extent exactly and what report, I'm sorry, I cannot give you any details on that. With regards to the tire side, I already told you that we have seen a strong April, but I have not guided for the second quarter so far. So the April, we do see catch-up effects coming from the March topic. So this working day topic that you just said. And as I said, we do see stronger markets moving onwards. What exactly... The full Q2 figure will be, we will see after we finalize the Q2, but I'm confident that we are moving definitely into the right direction. And then let's see, price mix positive potentially already in Q2. We will still see impacts from the cost indexation in the second quarter this year, but overall moving on forward for the full year, we should progress in that arena. in the last question, the premium freight. Also there, I don't guide on the quarterly basis, but I can tell you that the expectation for the year was to end up the year better on the premium freight side than we ended it last year, and we already made progress in the first quarter of this year and will continue to see continuous positive effects during the next quarters to come.

Yes, thank you, Katja. Will it be more back and loaded also on the premium freight side? I know that you do not guide quarter by quarter, but should we expect a major impact in the second alpha?

I would say no, no special additional impact. We're moving more or less in line. And by the way, there was earlier a question on the truck tire sales. You can expect about 20% of our sales being related to truck tires. I'm sorry, I couldn't give you the exact figure for this year, but sorry. Yeah?

Okay, thank you.

The next question comes from Jose Azumendi, JP Morgan. May we have your question, please?

Hi, Katia. Jose, thank you for the comments so far. A couple of questions, please. When I look at the automotive business, excluding the investments you're doing on AM and the losses you're generating there as a result of the R&D expenditure, You guide for 3% to 4% auto margin in 24. If we exclude the losses you're making in AM, am I right in understanding that the adjusted auto margin will be probably 4% to 5%? And we actually have quite a healthy automotive margin? That will be the first question. Or am I being too optimistic on my assumptions? Thank you.

Oh, you're asking question by question. Okay, sorry. Jose, I think it is clear and we've also indicated that during our capital market day that our expectation for 2023 was that AM would be in the loss-making territory and But we do not guide on the A-level, so I'm sorry, I cannot really make this statement so far. When you look at 2023 and looking at the capital market presentation, you could assume that in 2023 the margin would have been better without the investments in autonomous.

Got it. And then, I mean, it's quite difficult to navigate the automotive margin on a quarterly basis, but Where are we on these, you know, the famous three buckets, the operational excellence, the fixed cost reduction, and the R&D efficiency on auto? How is this feeding through this year and next year as we look forward to seeing that automotive margin growing and improving in the right direction?

I think when you remember the bridge that we provided also at the Capital Markets Day, we had given you the contribution per bucket more or less. What I can tell you is that we are on our way and fully in line with the targets on the defined measures that we had. So with regards to the fixed cost reduction program, I can say that our expectation for this year is a low dibble trip. low triple-digit, I'm sorry, I ran over myself, a low triple-digit million contribution already this year and with the full contribution of around 400 million being realized by the end of 2025. We do see that with regards to the R&D efficiency improvement program, which will contribute short-term up to 1%, we are also moving into the right direction and We will see a reduced R&D to sales ratio for this year, as we have indicated. So also there we are moving into the right direction. We also said that we would benefit from lower premium rates. We already confirmed that we've seen effects in the first quarter and in the next quarters to come. So what we are doing at the moment is renegotiating the pricing side. That is also one of the levels that we announced specifically today. And there, I would say we have not signed any agreements in the first quarter, yet we are in good negotiations moving forward.

Thank you. And final one, if we think about this margin sequential improvement on auto, which is going to be extremely steep in Q3 and Q4, if Q2 is basically breaking even slightly positive, then Q3, Q4 need to be very, very strong margins. That sequential improvement, is it As you think about this, is it a third volume, a third cost savings, a third pricing, or do you think pricing will be the majority? Price negotiations will be probably three-quarters of the margin improvement in Q3, Q4.

I don't think we've ever broken it down specifically on how much the pricing individually will contribute, but if you take into account... Jose, that I said that a significant portion of the price agreements of last year did not roll over into this year, plus the additional cost inflationary headwinds. You can definitely see that the result of the price negotiations will be a major driver again on margin improvements during the course of this year.

Super. Thank you.

You're welcome. Next question comes from Christoph Lascavi, Deutsche Bank.

Hey, thank you for taking my questions. The first one will be just a clarification question on what you said on the Q2 margin. In the absence of any pricing, could the margin be positive? The way I read your statement, it's not the case and pricing would lift it over the breakeven line. Is that correct? And then the second question would be on essentially your structuring paybacks. You highlighted that you have closed a couple of things also in Germany. Could you comment just roughly where the visibility on that sits on the guided, call it 100 million? Do you have good visibility on the phasing and achieving those 100 million already, call it like 80, 90%, or is there still plenty that you need to close with the unions or other parts that could prevent reaching the 100 million? Thank you.

Okay. Hi, Christoph. Coming to your first question, we do need some pricing to become positive on the automotive side. Because as I said, we do already have effects from the inflationary headwinds of this year. So looking at Q1 and Q2 in total, we would have half of the negative effects from the labor cost and inflation already realized, which would be already a significant impact. So we do need some pricing to get positive. But as I also said, We are in a good way. Let me say it like this. We are in good negotiations with the customers. They value our products and our content and also our partnership when it comes to new strategic projects. As during the course of the last years, I'm positive that we will come to satisfactory and sustainable agreements there. With regards to the restructuring payback, I would say we do have a very strict program and also a very strict program management on the implementation of our cost-saving measures, which include the administrative cost side but also the R&D side. We do have a pretty good visibility of what and when it still comes. For sure, we are also in constant... exchange i will call it exchange with our social partners which means the unions and but also please keep in mind christoph that the program is not only targeting to germany i think that's very important to keep in mind we're a global company we're globally adapting our processes on the administrative side and therefore the effects will not only come from from german employees thank you just to follow up to that then um obviously the non-german parts of the program are easier to

to conduct, if you can say it that way. So that means for 24, you wouldn't see a risk of delays because of negotiations with anyone in the program.

I would say when you look at the past and also when you look at our transformation program that we had in the market, we've always been able to find solutions with our social partners. So I am so far confident and I'm also happy with the progress that we have made so far. And I'm positive that we will find solutions because in the interest of the whole company and all its employees.

Thank you very much.

So, thank you very much. Before we go to the last questions, we have two questions in the queue. Just a reminder, if you have still a question, just press 9 followed by the star key on your telephone to state your question. So, the next question comes from Thomas Besson Keech.

Hi, I guess it's me. Thank you. I have a few questions, please. First, Katja, a personal question. Could you update us on your succession plans? I understand it's been launched, but I don't think we have heard anything. Do you have any visibility on the timeline for that change, and can you explain how long you're going to stay once a new person has been appointed in your position eventually. That's the first question. The second, there's a lot of changes that have been pitched in your December CMD. All of them are taking a little bit of time due to cover-ups and planning, etc. Can you update us on the timeline for these changes and the cost of implementation you're going to bear in 24, please. And lastly, more brutal question, I'm sorry. You need to have compensations from your clients to turn positive in autos, but I mean, your headcount has barely declined in autos and your R&D has jumped where it's supposed to decline. So how should we see this basically on a like for like basis? should we expect headcount in automotive to be down 5% or more on a like-for-like basis without any adjustments, or is it going to be still the same? And when should we expect R&D to eventually decline in automotive? Thank you.

Okay, I'll try to answer the personal question first, Thomas. So with regards to my succession, there is nothing I can share with you at the moment. The succession is not... It's not decided by me, but it will be decided by the supervisory board, who is for sure evaluating potential candidates for the position. And as soon as they've taken a decision, this will also be communicated into the public. What I said, Thomas, I do have a contract, and the contract expires on December 13th. So this is still a pretty long way to go. And I'm fully committed to Continental during that time. I do have a lot of personal relationships in this company. I still feel very connected to this company. So it's on me and it's my responsibility to continue to drive this company into the right direction and into the future. And I will fulfill my duties to its full extent. And as soon as the successor will be announced, we will define a timeline until... when a proper handover will have taken place, because that is also important to keep stability in this company, to manage a proper handover, and then we will see how things progress. So nothing to update you about. Everything is still on the run, and you will have the pleasure to talk to me until December so far. The decisions from the CMD take time. That is definitely true. We informed you at the CMD that we have taken the decision to carve out, to legally carve out two business areas, the user experience business and the original equipment solutions business from Contitech. Both carve outs are running according to plan. We are a little bit more progressed with the original equipment solutions business because we've taken the decision earlier. But both carve-outs are running according to plan, and what we have also communicated to the market is that we expect an impact from carve-out costs for this year of around €200 million for the two carve-outs. I think that is what it is, and everything is going according to plan in the two carve-outs. With regards to the R&D topic, I think what we have always said is that we do not necessarily see a reduction in absolute R&D net spend, but that we do see a decline year over year from R&D targeting on the long term to an R&D in the net in percent of sales ratio of around 9%. And there, I can say, Thomas, we are exactly on on that track and on that path. We've also shown that during the course of the last two years that we've reduced the R&D net and percent of sales, and we continue to move forward into this direction. If you refer to the quarter over quarter comparison with last year, it seems that we do have higher also relative R&D in percent of sales, This is due to some cut-off dates on the R&D reimbursement side, but this is just, let's say, a rolling effect. It's not an absolute effect. Our expectations of this year are fully in line, and we do progress as planned.

Okay, thank you very much. So just to confirm, the R&D ratio, despite being up in Q1, should decline in 2024 versus 2023 towards your ambition? And I had a subsequent question on the headcount that actually has not declined as fast as your revenues in automotive in Q1.

Okay, so to the first question, yes, you should see a decline compared to prior year again when we conclude the year 2024. And the second one, the ramp down of headcount is not linear to Q1. not necessarily linear to sales. We are targeting to reduce our administrative personnel significantly, and we've also announced the figures of people that are affected overall. And this is not linear to the sales development in the first quarter, and you will see more effects coming in in the second half of this year.

Yeah, thank you very much. Next question comes from George Gallier, Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

Good afternoon and thank you for taking my questions. The first one I wanted to ask was whether there was any way to strip out from the Q1 auto EBIT the inefficiencies associated with the ramp up of the new products as well as any detrimental impact from the delays you mentioned in order to just help us understand what the Q1 margin might have looked like on an underlying basis. I don't know if that's possible, or you can just give some color in that direction. The second question I had was just, again, coming back to the guidance. I think to reach the low end of your guidance, you need to see something in the ballpark of a $450 million improvement in auto EBIT year over year. Obviously part of the $450 million is coming from the $400 million cost reduction measures that you highlighted at the CMD. However, following on from your response to Jose's question, is my correct understanding that the rest or a large part of the rest of this improvement is expected to come from price renegotiations? Again, just to be very clear, that would be incremental benefit versus the price renegotiations you achieved last year, which don't carry forward. Thank you.

Okay, so maybe the first one on the Q1 performance. It's that some contracts with our key customers are facing out or were facing out at the beginning of this year, so in Q1, which could not be fully compensated by ramping up other projects. And overall, therefore, we also saw a negative mixed effect in the market. So that was definitely a hit. How much that has really contributed to the overall muted performance, I really can't quantify that to you, but that's definitely a hit that we have seen. We do expect that not to fully reverse, that would be wrong, but we do see positive trends that can help us to partially stop this negative trend. So that is the topic on the mix, ramp up, ramp down topic for the first quarter. So for the guidance and price, price will be a major driver. As I said, we did not have all the pricing rolling over from 2023. So that is definitely and that was also in effect now in the first quarter. Concluding those price agreements satisfactorily and sustainably will definitely be a driver for the margin improvement overall on the automotive side. Despite, as I said, that small triple-digit million expectations that we have from the fixed cost reduction program, but we also, and I mean, let me just emphasize that, we are also expecting some positive contributions from us growing better than the market and also growing with a good product in the market during the course of this year.

Great. Thank you.

Next question comes from Michael Aspinall-Jeffries.

Thanks. Hi, Katia and Anna. Michael Aspinall from Jeffries here. Just one follow-up on tyre margins. As I believe I heard a comment that 1H tyre margins could be within the corridor of 13% to 14%. Just to get to the bottom of the corridor for the first half, two key margins would need to be kind of more than 14% which would be the highest since 1Q22. What are the key moving pieces that would see tire margins rebound so strongly in the second quarter?

The first thing and I think I indicated that already is in April we have more working days than we had in March so also that effect we do see to manifest. yes, there is a chance that overall we will be in the range of our guidance with tires in H1. And it's the volume topic that is definitely coming in that will help us in the tire replacement market.

Okay. So it's mainly volume, not much from pricing raw materials. They're kind of largely flat into 2Q.

It is volumes overall, I would say. The major driver is volume. Okay, great. Thank you.

Thank you very much. Right now, we have no further questions. Back to you, Anna Fischer.

Thank you, Operator, and thank you, everyone, for participating in today's call. As always, the Continental Investor Relations team is available for you for any remaining questions. With that, we would like to conclude today's call. Thank you so much and goodbye.