2/27/2026

speaker
Court Call Conference Operator
Conference Operator

Good morning, this is the Court Call Conference Operator. Welcome and thank you for joining the Doe Value Preliminary Full Year 2025 Financial Results Presentation. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, they may signal an operator by pressing star and zero on their telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Daniele Della Seta, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

speaker
Daniele Della Seta
Head of Investor Relations at DoValue

Good morning, everyone. I'm Daniele Della Seta, Head of Investor Relations at The Value. I'm joined by Manuela Planchin, our Group CEO, and Davide Socritti, our Group CFO, as we present our preliminary full year 2025 results. Manuela will begin with an overview of our performance, including key insights into market and business trends. Next, Davide will provide a detailed analysis of our financial results for the future. We'll conclude with a Q&A session to address any questions you may have. Thank you for joining us today. I will now hand over to Manuela.

speaker
Manuela Planchin
Group Chief Executive Officer (Group CEO) at DoValue

Good morning, everyone. Let me start clearly and concisely. We delivered. We met our 2025 business plan target for both cash flow and a bid day. Our second consecutive year of delivery on the three-year business plan. And we reached several milestones even earlier than planned. And we achieved this in a particularly challenging phase of our industry. while also executing two major M&A transactions that will reshape the future of our company. Before walking you through the results, which together present a solid and consistent picture, I want to thank all the people at DoValue. Their commitment and hard work have enabled us to accomplish what many in the market doubted would be possible. Commercial momentum remains strong, with new business intake closing at roughly 15 billion 1.8 times the annual business plan targets and a pipeline that continues to support visibility into 2026. Profitability strengthened, with the BDA at CNRI reaching a record 2017 million and margin at 37%, up 3 percentage points year on year. The near completion of the garden integration is now contributing to improved efficiencies across the platform setting the strong foundation for the next year. Cash generation was also very strong, with the free cash flow at 76 million, well above guidance. These results supported both the leveraging and the return to dividend payment in accordance with dividend policy. On a recurring basis, free cash flow was 93 million, bridging the gap towards the 2026 90 million targets. Net leverage stood at two times at year-end, fully in line with guidance, even after accounting for extraordinary payouts linked to the M&A activities, such as $6 million cash out for Alba Leasing, which was not contemplated when the guidance was announced. As for COEL, I know that, just like us, you are eager to see the performance reflected in our numbers. The transaction is expected to close shortly, with no execution issues. Coeo delivered another year of strong double-digit organic growth, with files intake up 23% in 25, a well ahead of our buyer case, but also seller case. Altogether, we entered 26 with a stronger business, a clearer trajectory, and the foundation to deliver our next set of targets, including Coeo. If you follow me on page three, let me start from the bigger picture. DoValue today plays a system-level role in Europe's financial stability. We operate at a scale that very few players in Europe can match, managing over 4.3 million positions across individuals and businesses. All of this before COEL, which will more than double the number of data points with a broader scope. This team has one of the largest behavioral credit database in the market. An asset that allow us to anticipate patterns, tailor strategies, and support the functioning of the financial system with evidence-based decision-making. This is the context in which our portfolio proves sustainable across cycles. It is diversified by design and managed by specialized professionals operating in areas where AI alone is not enough. First, diversification. Our portfolio is no longer a single asset NPL story. Alongside MP Health, we manage a large UTP perimeter, about 1 million positions, where we act as a structuring partner to protect value heavily. And we are developing a growing and performing base, currently of 400,000 positions, that extracts value from proactive debt management. Second, runaway and capacity. Look at 25 impact indicators at the bottom. 58,000 positions recovered from individuals, 21,000 from businesses, 12,000 positions restructured, and 3,000 re-performing positions collected. All these figures show a substantial annual throughput, but when you said that against the overall stock of 4.3 million outstanding positions, it's clear there is ample embedded opportunity in the existing book, a lot still to convert, which underpins visibility for the coming years. Third, AI resilience. 88% of our portfolio is made up by loans above €50,000, typically complex, bespoke, and legal intensive. Here, AI augments our execution capabilities, but outcomes are driven by highly specialized asset managers who cannot be replaced by AI-only models, also due to the proprietary nature of our dataset, which encompass decades of data and is not available to third-party models. In short, our scale, our data set, and the complexity we manage make Duvalio one of the few players that truly matter for Europe's financial stability. And they give us a long, predictable, and high-resilient path of value creation. With that foundation, let me turn to the 25 new business inflow on page four. In 25, GDP from new business reached almost 15 billion. 1.8 times our initial business plan targets, confirming the strength of our commercial engine. New mandates continue to grow in the fourth quarter by nearly 1 billion, including around 600 million from Banca Project in Italy and 200 million from the new contribution fund launched in December by DuValue through its asset management platform focused on state-guaranteed loans. Spain also added 200 million in the quarter with mandates from a major banking institution. We also saw sustained forward flow from existing customers, which showed total 4.3 billion for the year, covering around 80% of collections. This performance was mainly driven by solid contribution across countries with continued acceleration in flows from Santander in Spain up 60% year on year. which has been recently renewed for an additional year without any front payment. If we take a step back, the scale of what we have achieved over the past two years becomes even clearer. While banks boost MPE ratios and cost of risk at historical lows, we secure 24 billion of cumulative new business, nearly 11 billion of which from banks. This is not just commercial success. It's a tangible demonstration of the systemic role of our industry in Europe's financial ecosystem. Banks, funds, and institutions rely on our and our competitor platform through the cycle. And this is precisely what underpins the long-term sustainability of our business. Let's now turn to page five. Here we outline our pipeline, already reflecting the broader scope and diversification of the group after the co-acquisition. What you see on this page is not just the next wave of inflows, but the shape of a business that is becoming structurally wider, more diversified and more balanced across products and geographies. The MP pipeline is large and diversified. This pipeline amounts to 50 billion well distributed across countries and asset classes. with almost a quarter being UDP. I would like to take a moment to clarify the tax credit opportunity in Italy. As part of the 26 budget law, the government has introduced a new framework to recover unpaid tax and property revenues from local authorities, with AMCO appointed to orchestrate the collection efforts. A decree expected in March will define the operational parameters, including the potential outsourcing to licensed operators a key enabling step for volumes to flow. We are currently working on obtaining a license in order to be among the selected sub-services. For now, the initial stock identified as recovered amounts to roughly 20 billion, and we are prudently including 4 billion of what's in our pipeline as the share realistically attainable by the value. But it's important to be clear, these figures represent only the first phase of the opportunity, specifically the local authority receivables that were already assigned to the Agencia dell'Entrate. If the model proves effective and scalable, the pipeline would expand materially, potentially including local authority receivables currently handled by smaller local operators, central government receivables today managed exclusively by Agencia dell'Entrate. Parallelly, on the Coero side, the pipeline is extremely strong, with potential for additional annual revenue of over 250 million. This means that with the current in the market, Coero could effectively be more than double its annual revenue and largely diversify its customer base. Indeed, two-thirds of the pipeline comes from sectors beyond e-commerce, including telcos, insurance, and mobility. All this comes from opportunities in markets where Coero is currently present. Once we look at expanding Coeo into the value, this opportunity factor expands. We included a deep dive for Italy and Spain, and you can see there are plenty of sectors with small ticket receivables that Coeo could tap with its highly automated digital recovery processes. Let's now turn to page six. Here we turn the market backdrop. Insolvency has been rising across the EU. with bankruptcy declaration up 18% year-on-year in 24 and 25-month rate, reaching the highest level since 19. In Q4 25, seasonally adjusted declarations were once again up quarter-on-quarter, underscoring that the trends remain live. By country, the picture is fully defined with what we observe on the ground. Greece recorded an average plus 20% quarterly increase through 2025. Italy is expected to exceed pre-pandemic insolvency levels. Germany started its upswing later, but is expected to continue. And Spain shows insolvency levels contained but higher versus 10 years ago across most markets. Now an important point of contest. Our business plan 24-26 was built without assuming any macroeconomic shock or deterioration. Despite that, we have delivered new business significantly above expectation in both 24 and 25, even while banks were reporting historically low new MPE ratios and cost of risk. What this means is that in an already benign credit environment, the value has still captured strong inflows and commercial traction. And if the current insolvency trend persists or broadens, it represents potential upside versus intake assumed in our plan, with the usual time lag between filing and onboarding, and with the same discipline on mix and pricing, guiding what we choose to service. Now on to a more cheerful note. Let's move to page 7 for an update on COEL. 25 has been another really strong year for them, despite management being largely involved with a long and complex sales process to do value. Coel grew new files by 23% to 9.6 million files, reflecting both in market client growth, notably in telco across Germany, Sweden, and the UK, and client-driven expansion into three new markets, Switzerland, Norway, Finland, without M&As. On the digital engagement and service quality, Coeo is running AI-enabled interaction across Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, Austria, Sweden, and Norway, delivering over 1 million customer interaction completely digital whilst maintaining excellent customer satisfaction metrics. On the financial side, Coeo delivered around 60 million EBITDA in 2025, excluding EBITDA coming from the hybrid model. with a 35% increase in portfolio investments, which fuel future collections revenue growth. It's important to note that this 35% increase in portfolio investments was entirely funded through the fund cash generation of the business, evidence of the sustainability of the hybrid model. Moving to page eight. We have initially hoped to close the co-op transaction by January, The closing is still pending without any issues. I'd like to give you some color on the process. The transaction is cleared by four major authorities in several countries where COEA operates. We are waiting clear from just one last authority in Germany. The timeline was extended due to the document collection and examination requirements across multiple jurisdictions and counterparts and administrative multi-party review that's simply taken longer than anticipated. Importantly, there has been no change to the perimeter on terms agreed and we remain fully engaged with the authority on the remaining steps. From an execution readiness standpoint, we are prepared to move quickly once clearance arrives. We have already agreed the integration plan structured along seven work streams. Governance, finance, HR, IT, procurement, AI and business expansion. with clear owners, detailed checklists, and no disruption expected for clients. The AI Workstream is set to make well the group AI app for small tickets, digital first flows, while presenting our high-touch approach on complex exposures. We will close promptly upon receipt of the final clearance and are operationally ready to integrate from day one. First, we operate in two very different arenas. Now, you can see it on page nine. Here we want to comment upon the recent noise about what the AI winners and losers will be. And we want to be very complete about how AI touches our business. On the one hand, we manage mid-large secured loans. Our full book with an average ticket of around 70,000 euro where AI mainly improves cost efficiency and workflow orchestration. But outcomes still require experienced asset managers. Here, AI is an enabler with limited impact on economics, not a substitute for human expertise. Osmol and Secure Tickets, AI matters more because full automation is needed to make unit economic work. That is exactly why we choose to enter this segment through COAO, A digital AI-driven platform built for scale. In practice, we are already using AI where it moves the needle. Digital debtor portals and channels are live in Greece. About 30% of 0 to 90 days collections are rendered digitally. We are also using modeling and advanced analytics for segmentation and propensity to pay. Virtual agents to support our teams on case-free alch. Responses and call wrap-ups. And document analytics to extract facts from judicial and notarial files. The impact is visible. With the initial adoption of the digital platform in Greece, small ticketed BDA margin increased from roughly 33% to 89%. A step change that illustrates how automation can lower the cost to collect without compromising governance. It's equally important to explain why we are structurally protected as AI adoption accelerates in three ways. First regulation, our activities require licenses and human oversight. AI cannot hold a servicing license or assume legal responsibility under certain regulations. So human in the loop is mandatory in our market. Second data, AI needs domain specific training data DuValue owns one of the southern Europe's most extensive proprietary credit recovery databases, which is private and not available to third-party models. Third, complexity. Corporate and secure recoveries are bespoke and legally intensive. Local code filing, multi-party negotiation are at the heart of our business. Automation can manage low-value, high-volume cases. Experts drive outcomes on complex scales. Our strategy is clear. Automate a scale where automation wins. Small tickets via COEL. And augment human expertise where value is created. Secured and complex claims add to value. All under a roadmap with a clear guardrail. Regulation, data, and complexity will continue to be durable modes as AI progresses. Let's now turn to page 10, with an overview on the German market, which will become very important for us. Germany is now the number-two MPL market in Europe by stock held on banks' balance sheets, at 46 billion, up 24% versus 2019, and 21% larger than the current Italian size. Importantly, this 46 billion figure covers banks only, It excludes positions held by investors, fintechs, and debt purchasers, and receivables from non-financial entities served by COEVO. So the true addressable market is materially larger than unbalanced sheet numbers. Yes, the servicing market is underdeveloped. It's highly fragmented, with servicers typically specialized by client segments and not meaningfully consolidated today. leading limited-scale platforms, and clear scope for a consolidator to bring multi-client, multi-product capabilities. On execution, the regulatory bar is also a differentiator. Since 24, Germany requires a CSI license to operate in credit servicing. We have secured the license, established to value Germany, onboarded project staff, and identified the KIs, completed the first market analysis, upgraded system to run MPL workflows, and aborted an initial client, aiming to make profits already in 27. All these are concrete, tangible steps and not simple intentions. Strategically, this expansion is the first synergy of the COE acquisition. Germany is COE's largest market, so even ahead of clothing, we are not standstill. We are leveraging Coel footprint and GT stack to accelerate entry, demonstrating that we are proactive and already putting the model in motion to scale quickly once consolidation is completed. To sum up, a large and growing German MPL pool plus a fragmented servicing landscape creates room for a sizable opportunity. We are in market licenses and building capacity. using COERCE, the first synergy of the deal, to ensure that once consolidation is completed, we can scale delivery from day one. Before I hand over to Davide to walk you through the financials, let's turn to page 11 and look at the progress made so far on the business plan horizon. This is our second consecutive year of delivery-based guidance, and we are ahead on the 2024-26 business plan. Cumulatively, we have already reached the full three-year new business target in just three years. More than 24 billion of GDP from new business in 24 and 25 only. Engine 2 of Growth is delivering. The digital platform is live in all countries. Our alternative asset management company is above 1 million of fee generating AUM with two new funds launched in recent months. Fintech has already intermediated 2,000 mortgage applications and our advisory unit continues to expand. With the consolidation of COAO and GIM2 will become the group main business and represent the majority of group revenue from day one, not over time, shifting the group revenue mix and outlines at the capital market day. On capital structure, we delivered as well. We refinanced 2526 bonds by summer 25, and in October 25, issued the 350-2031 notes at a coupon 160 bps lower than the February issue, despite the longer maturity. Our bonds trade at a yield to maturity below 5%, sorry, the lowest in the industry, and we still see room to optimize interest costs through further refinancing. Finally, financial performance is in line with guidance. GDP of 136 billion, EBITDA of 217 million, XNRI, free cash flow of 76 million, net leverage of two times. So overall, we are delivering what we said. We are ahead on the transformation and we are doing it with a capital structure and a financial profile that supports that space. Actually, we didn't just deliver on the numbers. We over-delivered on our strategic position. We expanded our geographical footprint, strengthened our AI capabilities, and broadened our product scope with an acquisition that will open a new chapter for DoValue at the next Capital Markets Day. And we did all this while keeping leverage in check and delivering on every standalone target. I will now hand over to Davide who will take you through the financial results in more details.

speaker
Davide Socritti
Group Chief Financial Officer (Group CFO) at DoValue

Thank you, Manuela, and good morning, everyone. Let me start by saying that 2025 was a year of tangible progress and strong financial execution, as is clear from the summary of our preliminary full-year results on page 13. 2025 stands out as a year when we delivered strong results and materially enhanced profitability, with double-digit increases in both revenues and EBITDA. Gross revenue in 2025 was $580 million, showing a solid double-digit growth of 21.1% versus the previous year. Despite temporary timing aspects related to the ramp-up of the collection process on the new Greek portfolios, the underlying momentum remains strong with growth sustained by non-NPL revenue, which continues to expand their contributions to the group mix as indicated in our plot. Net revenue rose to $524 million, mirroring the growth frame growth in the presence of a stable impact of outsourcing costs year over year. ABTDA XNRI reached $217 million, up 31.8% versus 2024. Synergies expected for the gadget acquisition are playing out exactly as expected in Italy, with integration now largely completed. Cost discipline across the other regions continue to support high margin, up by 3 percentage points from the 2024 level. Net income XMRI increased to 25 million, more than tripled from 7 million in 2024, despite higher financial costs and higher P&A following the consideration with regard to . This is fully consistent with our M&A philosophy. Every transaction must be EPS accredited, and the performance reassuring confirms exactly that. The co-e acquisition will show in our figures in 2036, and it will be a similar story. Moving now to page 14, we can find breakdown of cross-range value jobs. At group level, cross-range grew by 21.1% year-on-year. driven by continued growth in non-MPL revenues, both 50ps and recurring MPFs. Non-MPL revenues present now 36% of gross revenues, up 1 percentage point from 2024, in line with the group's strategy towards higher growth, lower volatility segments. This will expand further following the completion of the EGORI acquisition. In the LEMIC region, as mentioned, revenues in Q4 decelerated due to timing effects in the ramp-up of new portfolios, which we expect to contribute fully to revenue in 2026. Other than that, the regions continue to show sustained activity across all of the business segments with hefty collections underpinned by a different market. In Italy, gross revenue grew 61% year-on-year. supported by the combined contribution of gardens and the strong growth in non-NPR revenues, which will continue to expand even excluding gardens. It is important to highlight that even on the standard of basis, both Juve and gardens recorded low single-digit growth, confirming that the stabilization of GBV and the increasing weight of non-NPR revenues are already shaping a new positive growing dynamic, even in a mature market such as Italy. In Spain, revenue declined 4 to 1 million as witnessed in Rio, was mitigated by circa 60% growth in UTP services. Revenue in the future will be driven by new business intake in a still fragmented market. On page 15, you can see the results of the continuous cost discipline at the group level and of the successful integration of Gargan. delivering all the synergies promised one year ago. In 2025, operating costs increased only by 14.6% year-on-year, 6.6 percentage points less than the annuals, despite the inclusion of the cost base of Gaza. More in detail, HR costs grew 17.3%, leading to an incidence of revenues lowered by more than 130 basis points, mainly thanks to effective release of senior system in Italy, as well as cost savings across all geographies. As for IT, real estate, and CMA expenses, we record an increase of only 42 million, with the incidence of revenues falling 170 basis points in all markets. On the basic theme, we find the per-country details of ABTDA XNRI, which reached $270 million at the group level, up by 31.8% year over year, and the lending at the upper end of our guidance for 2025. In the lending region, ABTDA XNRI reached $121.4 million, with the reduction by 2024 that mirrors the revenue dynamics, although partially mitigated by cost-discipline measures. The region continues to be a key profitability driver for the group, contributing 56% of total ABTDA XMRI with a solid 51% margin. In Italy, ABTDA increased 50% to the contribution of Ogardan, as well as the effective release of synergies. Indeed, the garden integration has been progressing really well, and the synergies are evident. In Italy, the BTV margin increased by 13 percentage points year-on-year, with more value extracted from the acquisition than originally expected. These remarkable results demonstrate the high value-creating nature of our M&A activities. cost continuous savings contributed to offset negative trends observed in reals. Non-recurring items were limited to negative 8 million, originating mainly from consultancy costs related to the play acquisition and costs to release garden synergies. Moving to page 17, we show very positive dynamics in net income evolution, which, excluding non-recurring items, more than tripled to 25 million and increased by 19 million compared to 2024. Analyzing the most impactful items between ABTDA and net income, depreciation, amortization, and net impairment on PPA and intangible increased to 36 million year over year. The increase versus last year is mainly related to incremental DNA from garden and its PPA. Next, financial interest and commission were higher, reflecting the normal impact of the larger growth debt following recent M&A activities. This includes the term loan taken in 2024 to fund the gathered acquisition. Currently, circa 300 million outstanding and amortizing 53 million per annum. 300 million bonds due 2030 issued in February and 360 million bonds due 2031 and currently held in a scroll until closing of the Coeo transaction. Income tax decreased on a recurring basis by 17% year-on-year, while reported tax increases due to adverse comparison effects related to an extraordinary 20 million positive S-2024 from a tax claim won in Spain. Net income attributable to non-controlling interest increases to 6 million in 2025 to 18.1 million due to garden minorities. Non-recurring items for the bill amounted to 34 million, up by 29 million, mainly due to the aforementioned 20 million positive aspects from the tax claim in Spain related to 2024, and the non-recurring financial costs related to the two recent bond issuance and early redemption by the 26 bonds. As a result, net income, excluding non-recurring interest items, reached 25.3 million, up by 19 million, paving the way for dividend payout in line with our dividend policy. Moving to page 18. let's have a look at the cash flow dynamics, which, as anticipated in our plan, improved significantly. We are pleased to see the group being back to its previous high cash generation levels, with cash flow from operations up 99 million to 181 million in the full year, thanks to positive FPGA contributions and working capital dynamics, and tighter control over the change in other asset liabilities. Capital expenses increased by 11 billion versus last year, higher than previously guided, due to AI and automation initiatives to unlock efficiencies. Investment in data strategy, investment to strengthen the group's cybersecurity perimeter, as well as investments like links to the data integration, namely unification of systems across the companies. Next working capital released $32 million mainly into the recovery of past invoices in Greece and some non-recurring expenses related to the IEO which will be paid on closing. Leased payments and SRS-16 amounted to $70 million including government perimeter in line with previous messaging. Paid for redundancy were $11 million slightly down versus 2024, as the group successfully limited redundancy by relocating personnel across the wider Duvalu garden perimeter, limiting the use of external asset managers. Other changes in other asset liabilities reflect the expected reversal of the MDO effects and include a positive effect related to the quo transaction, which will be reversed in 2023. Minorities were unchanged, but then marked results as expected. Investments in equity and financial assets accounted for 18 million, mainly from non-recurring payments for turnouts in Greece and investments in alpha leasing. Taking all using accounts, free cash flow before debt repayment or dividend landed at 76 million. above our 60 to 7 million guidance range. On a recurring basis, excluding the many related effects such as turnout for dual degrees, our belief in investment free cash flow for debt repayment would have been 93 million, bringing the gap towards the 2026 free cash flow guidance. Based on the results achieved, the value currently trades at the free cash flow rate of around 18%, 21% on the recurring basis. To conclude, let's now move on page 19 and take a look at our financial structure. Net financial leverage at the end of December stood at two times, down from the 2.4 times level at December 2024, reaching the target for 2025, despite an additionally extraordinary M&A related the group maintained a solid liquidity buffer of 277 million, made up of 145 million cash on balance sheet and 152 million on growth revolving phase facilities, including a 20 million new facility agreed in January 26, which remained completely undrown. Overall, we closed the year with a solid capital structure, double B credit rating, strong performance in the bond market, with our bonds trading at the lowest yields in the industry, below the percent and no refinancing needs until 2013, given the recent November issuance to finance the acquisition currently held in a scroll. As we continue on our delivery path, we also see further opportunities to optimize our cost of debt by refinancing instruments issued at higher coupons. Importantly, this structure gives us significant flexibility in future capital allocation and shareholder domination. Topics that will be addressed in detail as part of the next capital market day. This is all on our site for today. Thank you all for your attention. We will now take your questions.

speaker
Court Call Conference Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. This is the Coral School Conference operator. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and 1 on their telephone. To remove yourself from the question queue, please press star and 2. Please pick up the receiver when asking questions. Anyone who has a question may press star and 1 at this time. The first question is from Tommaso Niedu of Kepler-Chevreux.

speaker
Tommaso Niedu
Analyst at Kepler Cheuvreux

Good morning and thank you a lot for taking my questions. The first one on free cash flow which was clearly the main positive surprise. On working capital, the 32 million release in 2025 was, I believe, materially ahead of both your prior guidance and our expectation. Can you help us understand with more details what structurally changed there and also beyond the 5 million temporary benefit from COIO. And given the 2025 net working capital release, as we think about 2026, should we assume a broadly neutral working capital or do you see scope for further structural release? The second question is on dividends. While you reiterated that the proposal will be in line with policy, Could you give us more clarity on how you think about positioning within the 50 to 70%? payout range and for now the last one on Gardent you originally guided for 5 million euro synergies in 2025 and 15 million at a full run rate my question is could you quantify how much has been realized to date and whether there is any incremental upside beyond the 15 million euro target thank you

speaker
Davide Socritti
Group Chief Financial Officer (Group CFO) at DoValue

Thank you, Tommaso. I will take your first question. Turkish flu, 32 billion were coming as anticipated and mainly from Greece as we guided 15 to 20 million, the higher level of our guidance. Then we have also contribution, as I was saying, from Korea, we have roughly 3 million that has been included in the report of the DTA that will be paid in 2026 closing. And then we have also positive impact from Italy, both working capital, but also because we were able to use our tax credit. DTA has been transformed in tax credit and has been used to pay related to the working capital. For 2026 we still expect a positive contribution from working capital whereas we still need to recover advance payment we made in Greece so we will expect still a double digit contribution working capital in 2026.

speaker
Manuela Planchin
Group Chief Executive Officer (Group CEO) at DoValue

On the dividend funds we will propose to be on the high end of our guidance in terms of percentage, probably rounding the numbers up. On the Gartent integration, about 2025, we close between actual synergies of around 9 to 10 million. We confirm still the rate of 15 million hoping to do better. All the action has been put in place the technical aspects to be executed will complete by June. So by June everything is really closed. And the team is running the head of guidance on the cost efficiency side.

speaker
Tommaso Niedu
Analyst at Kepler Cheuvreux

Great. Thank you.

speaker
Court Call Conference Operator
Conference Operator

The next question is from Antonio Gianfrancesco of Intermonte.

speaker
Antonio Gianfrancesco
Analyst at Intermonte

Good morning and thank you for taking my question. Congratulations for this set of results. I have two questions. The first one is on new business because new business intake reached 14.5 billion in 2025, exceeding already the cumulative business plan target, a very good figure. But it would be useful to better understand your expectation for inflows in 2026. both in terms of volume and product mix and how confident you are in maintaining this commercial momentum in a market where NP inflows remain for sure structurally low but insolvency trends appear to be rising. The second question is on COEO. Because I understand that DAF in approval is the final step before closing. And you have confirmed your guidance for 2026, which includes COER's contribution. So considering that the actual closing will now take place at least two months later than planned or something like that, it will be useful to understand whether you expect this delay to have any potential impact on execution in 2026. And the third one is on the German expansion. you highlighted Germany as a fragmented and consolidated market with CSI licensing obtained and operations starting, if I don't understand worse, in January 2026. So some additional color on the medium-term ambition in terms of geography, let's say in terms of scale, investment intensity and potential margin profile would be very, very helpful. Thank you.

speaker
Manuela Planchin
Group Chief Executive Officer (Group CEO) at DoValue

Thanks for your question. On the business volumes, clearly there were major transactions this year that we had embedded as probability in our pipeline, but obviously they all realized in a positive manner that probability now becomes 100% and this has brought to doubling the level. Clearly the level of primary transaction across the core markets, the southern European one, we see them less in the traditional MPL business, while they will be mostly focused on the UTP and early areas part. And also the pipeline regarding non-financial claims From there it's quite big given that it's a market we don't touch today or at a very limited extent in Spain and that for us is an open opportunity. So we confirm, we reiterate still what we had in the business plan of $8 billion. Clearly this $8 billion is composed by forward flows the new contracts. On a positive note, the forward flow this year only contributed more than 4 billion. Clearly this includes Unicredit that, you know, has finished in terms of forward flow last October, but is replaced by Sondrio, that obviously is smaller, that will start after April. and the renewal of Santander, which this year has done more than 1 billion over our budget. So this brings us to positive expectations also on the forward flow contribution of 2026. If you remember, our original mix in the 8 billion was 2 from forward flow and 6 from the rest, and also this component is much higher. This is without COAO. Obviously COAO has an end market which is different and in that sense is a growing market and this is all assuming in our core business still not substantial increase in the default rates, which is instead happening. So we prefer still to be conservative on this front. Also because you might remember that the time between winning the contract onboarding and the actual pick up of the activities takes a bit of time and so it has a more than effect over time. Now, on the Coeho side, in terms of execution of integration, we don't see impact on the execution. Why? We have already defined the integration plan and we are already moving ahead with the business opportunity without waiting the closing. So our team has built a division to manage MPL and has already deployed a system which allows them under our guidance to manage our traditional MPL. And they already got new clients from January for which they're managing MPL at bank. So we are talking to banks and was actually in Stanford for a conference with banks just two days ago because the regulator is telling them to prepare themselves for this increasing weight because they have not used those internally to manage more MPL, and to do it more efficiently based on other models, and Italy was portrayed as a reference model for the servicing industry. So that activity is developing. On the other side, we are deploying in Italy and in Spain now the COEL models and system, And we can say that already from April we will start managing two of the major clients in our jurisdiction. So this is a major result. Then if you look from a pure accounting standpoint, clearly the figures we have given are pro forma and it depends on the timing of close we will consolidate from that point in time. But in terms of, you know, free cash flow generation and the targets, We feel confident given that the contribution of Coeho in 26 was pretty much somehow offset at the most extent from the transaction cost while the full effect on the free cash flow side is from the year after. So because we already achieved this year clean for the extraordinary elements, the 90 million guidance, the target for the 2.2 is pretty much sustainable despite this delay. Now, going back to your last question on the German expansion, clearly our history in Germany is different now from Southern Europe where we bought a legacy platform that we needed to make more efficient, more modern, In Germany we start with a model which is extremely light, doesn't have legacy and we would like to grow our market share keeping that approach. So we will look to M&A in a very tactful and selective manner but we prefer the organic growth strategy in that specific sector. Given that it has proven very successful, and the AI-driven collection model in the German market has taken a lot of market share from traditional players in the small ticket business, and we hope to do the same also for the MPL, obviously adding the more human-intensive piece that we have explained is critical for when you manage larger tickets. But on that front, as I said, you know, the team has already hired a few people and already the system is laid. And all of these costs are included already in the guidance we have given.

speaker
Antonio Gianfrancesco
Analyst at Intermonte

Very clear. Thank you. Thank you very much.

speaker
Court Call Conference Operator
Conference Operator

The next question is from Davide Rimini, Intesa San Paolo. Please go ahead.

speaker
Davide Rimini
Analyst at Intesa San Paolo

Good morning and thank you for taking my questions. Just a few. One is on cash flow. I was just wondering, you mentioned already your guidance in terms of working capital contribution for this year. I just wonder whether you might mention a few other building blocks to get to a rough guidance for this year versus the 76 million reported today. The second question would be just a clarification on the confirmed guidance for this year. I just wonder whether you might add that on Coeo business, whether there is any seasonality in the business that we should be aware of within the year and that might affect this message. And the third question still on Coeo, I noticed that you put sort of a slide on the potential pipeline and the 18 months forward on 250 and at the same time you highlighted the opportunities in expanding the business in countries like Italy and Spain. I just wonder whether the 250 is including these opportunities or is excluding those? Thank you.

speaker
Davide Socritti
Group Chief Financial Officer (Group CFO) at DoValue

So, hello Davide, I will take your first question. Twenty-six, as we mentioned, no, already in 2025 shows that we are able to, excluding the Nordic Area Agents, to be at 90 million. So in the 2026, we still have CAPEX that will be quite in line with this year, probably around 30 million. We will have a positive contribution from working capital between 20 million and 25 million. We will have a change in other asset liabilities that are always the IFRS 17 million plus redundancy that is expected around 15 million. to pay the rate around 30 million. Financial charge expected roughly 36, 38 million. And we still have the earn out to the degree that is the last one we need to pay this year is 12 million. The next one will be 2030 of 60 million. And minority that is quite in line with this year, so roughly 8 million. As Moneda was mentioned, We will get free cash flow that will be mainly compensated by the transaction cost and by higher financial charge. But from 2026 we will benefit from the QIO cash flow. This is why we are confirming 19 million. Then we will have the benefit of the proceeds for the portfolio sales that this is in line with our guidance so we reduce the gross debt.

speaker
Manuela Planchin
Group Chief Executive Officer (Group CEO) at DoValue

On the guidance for 26, if I understood the question correctly, this year, you know, we closed for the value group at 2017. In terms of the BDA, we indicated in the guidance last year that the 300 included the bottom end of the guidance. of we had given before of 240 to 250. And in Corel, there is no seasonality effect. There are some mild effects related to no peaks of e-commerce transaction around Christmas and the like, but nothing not as typical as the course activity in the traditional business. In relation to your last question, if you're looking to page five, the pipeline of the 250 does not include the expansion to southern Europe.

speaker
Davide Rimini
Analyst at Intesa San Paolo

Thank you. And if I may just add a follow-up sort of on the CAPEX that you mentioned, the 30 million is... Could you give us a sort of a sense why sort of it should be off versus the 35 million sort of spend this year?

speaker
Davide Socritti
Group Chief Financial Officer (Group CFO) at DoValue

Can you say it again?

speaker
Davide Rimini
Analyst at Intesa San Paolo

I just wonder if I picked up directly sort of you are pointing to 30 million capex this year, also versus the 35 reported today. I was wondering whether there's any reason for this.

speaker
Davide Socritti
Group Chief Financial Officer (Group CFO) at DoValue

Yeah. The main data this year will include all the costs mainly related to the garden synergies that one offers to this platform to have the positive effects of the synergies. So from next year we will save this money so that we continue to spend our running capital investment in the technology.

speaker
Manuela Planchin
Group Chief Executive Officer (Group CEO) at DoValue

Yeah, just to be clear, we don't expect a lot of cost from the integration of Quero because it's a different platform. So we will have some integration of unification of back-end platform but it's more deployment and it's much more contained than in the garden case which included a significant obviously FTE reduction effort and related integration of in-market platforms that in this case we are not going to have. Clearly you have some costs related to the development of their platform in our countries and of our platform in their country. The second one has already been expanded in their P&L in 2025, given that we moved ahead just after signing. So this impact of integration is much less. Another important point is differently with an increasing trend, the component of development, new technologies, AI projects as part of the topics as material increased. Last year it was probably around 30%, this year will be more than 50%. This is obviously a function of bringing better processes, better technologies in our core system rather than integrating what we had.

speaker
Antonio Gianfrancesco
Analyst at Intermonte

Thank you.

speaker
Court Call Conference Operator
Conference Operator

The next question is from Davide Giuliano of Equita.

speaker
Davide Giuliano
Analyst at Equita

Hi, good morning and thank you for taking my questions. I have for the first one on gross revenues. Revenues were a touch below your guidance but more than upset by remarkable efforts on cost. Can you give us some color on the like for like trend in revenues and are you seeing a more pronounced slowdown in recent quarters compared to your guidance? Where do the difference come from? The second one on Greece, in the release you reported that there are still slowdowns in the onboarding of portfolios, I guess still related to the alphabet tranches. In addition, we have also seen a marked drop in the collection rate compared to last year. Why are you experiencing these difficulties in onboarding? And in general, what trajectory do you expect for the Greek business going forward? The third one on tax credits. Have there been any relevant developments for state tax credits and can you give us your expectation on profitability of local tax credit servicing which will be assigned to AMCO? And the very last one is just a quick comment on COIO results were very good in 2025 and I was wondering in light of CLARNA recent results if your long-term assessment of the COIO business model or concentration risk with CLARNA has changed. Thank you.

speaker
Davide Socritti
Group Chief Financial Officer (Group CFO) at DoValue

All right, Davide, I will take your first question on revenues. As we anticipated, in Greece, the reduction is not, tax reduction is mainly correlated to the, as you mentioned, we have onboarded a huge amount of portfolios in 2025, very big, about 5 billion. So all the portfolios are onboarded and we are managing those portfolios. The only difference is when you onboard this big portfolio, you need to work on those portfolios to have up and running revenues. So the expectation was to anticipate that revenue during 2025, but because they are very, very big portfolios, we need to work on those portfolios after judicial action to also reach an ultimate agreement with the borrower. So this created a temporary delay of those revenues from 2025 to 2026, and this is also impacting the collection rate you were mentioning because for sure now we have this new portfolio that's still not adding a run rate, a collection rate, so the first year would be lower, then it would pick up and go back to the previous collection rate. So we would consider this only a yearly temporary effect that there would not be any more in 2026. And then we have also, as I mentioned, in Spain, the reduction of revenue of Rios, but that one has been also a choice for us because that part was not high margin, so we preferred to reduce its revenues, increasing other types of credit to manage that have lower revenues but higher profitability.

speaker
Manuela Planchin
Group Chief Executive Officer (Group CEO) at DoValue

On the tax credit, we are waiting, or AMCO is waiting the operating and that the laws to be published by March will indicate on how to execute what was in the budget law. So based on that, they are defining the operating model on which the services they will use will work on. And we assume that after June, you know, that type of business will be moved to them and they will allocate to some services. We have, as you know, a good relationship with them, given that we even increased last year, or we even doubled the amount of portfolios that we were managing for them after they assessed the number of services they work with. So we are equipping ourselves to manage that business, which is not included in our target estimates. and the margin we are hoping for is driven not by the type of receivables but by the operating model that we want to create on the back end on our side, we should be a digital model. So to confirm the margin we have on the rest of the business in Italy. Now, on the Coel results, maybe Daniele can comment.

speaker
Daniele Della Seta
Head of Investor Relations at DoValue

Yeah. We watch very closely the quarterly results of Klavna, of course, because it is a key customer of Coeo. First, let me begin by saying that, as you have seen from the pipeline, Coeo is diversifying much from Klavna. Nevertheless, it is still an important customer. What we watch for in the quarterly results of KLAVNA is the growth in the transacted volume. And this is growing very healthy across all of the regions where COEO operates. Specifically, the most important are Germany, UK, and Sweden. In those regions, Klapna is already very profitable with its flagship product with its pay-in pre-installment. But a good news is that they launched recently the Klapna Card. It's a debit card that fits in your phone and allows you to purchase in normal brick and mortar shops. And this is already producing an increase in purchase frequency by eight times in Germany. And this is driving a solid growth of the transacted volume in UK by 40% and in Germany by 20%. So we are happy about the growth. Of course, their profits are suffering from in other products such as consumer financing in the U.S. We think that there's a clear rationale in expanding in those products and we hope that at a certain point the COIO will be able to expand its product offering towards these more profitable products.

speaker
Antonio Gianfrancesco
Analyst at Intermonte

Thank you.

speaker
Court Call Conference Operator
Conference Operator

The next question is from Simonetta Chiriotti of Mediabanca.

speaker
Simonetta Chiriotti
Analyst at Mediobanca

Yes, thank you for taking my question. Looking at the guidance for 2026 excluding COIL, you project the growth from Could you elaborate a bit more on the trends in the various markets? So should we expect a growth in the Atlantic region, for example? And my second question is on tax receivables. In the past I think that you have mentioned that there is an opportunity also in Greece on this segment. Could you just give us an update on this?

speaker
Manuela Planchin
Group Chief Executive Officer (Group CEO) at DoValue

Thank you. Good morning. we see three types of growth. One, the full action on the 7 million new portfolio onboarded in 2025 will have a collection effect on certain younger vintages that we didn't have before. And this was what Davide was explaining that you need to put activities in place before you see the actual results. On the other side, don't forget that Greece is probably the country where we are diversifying more the product offer. We have the real estate company, the mortgage broking company, the advisory company. We are offering a data proposition out of the advisory company from this year. We have created another company which they manage as multi-get unsecured starting from next year, which is called DoServe. And we'd open the market for non-financial receivables and also the tax receivable opportunities you were mentioning where the process shall start next month. But this is as upside is included in a very small amount in our budget given that it's a public tender process. and it might take a bit longer. On the Italian front, the actual value perimeter, but also the government one, have been growing this year mildly vis-a-vis last year. And we are now deploying at full speed also the revenue synergies that we had in the government perimeter. Then in Italy, we have the asset management company, So that falls under that perimeter where we have developed now two new funds, recently actually three, and we have a pipeline for next year, too. And last, on the data side, we think we will increase significantly the product to non-captive clients. We have already developed the products. And remember, we also are launching in Italy the stage two products, as now we might be closing with two banks a contract. So this is in our assumption. So it's exploring as much as possible the stocks we have and the new flows from BPM, BIPER and Sondrio, but also to grow these other revenue lines. While in Spain, apart from the fact that we have developed digital collection now in all the countries with the marginality increase which is very strong, we mentioned, I think Davide mentioned that on the zero to 90 days past due, the margin on the digital channel is more than 80% versus less than 40 before. There we are deploying but now we will discuss in more details in the next course on the legal servicing side because the structure of the legal services in the Spanish market allow us to develop this type of proposition. professional services type of revenues which where we are going to use now the capacity we have inside with strong lawyers with expertise in this sector for other sectors which are not NPL related.

speaker
Simonetta Chiriotti
Analyst at Mediobanca

Thank you.

speaker
Court Call Conference Operator
Conference Operator

Mr. de la Seta, there are no more questions registered this time.

speaker
Daniele Della Seta
Head of Investor Relations at DoValue

Thank you all.

speaker
Court Call Conference Operator
Conference Operator

We wish you a good day.

Disclaimer

This conference call transcript was computer generated and almost certianly contains errors. This transcript is provided for information purposes only.EarningsCall, LLC makes no representation about the accuracy of the aforementioned transcript, and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the information provided by the transcript.

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