This conference call transcript was computer generated and almost certianly contains errors. This transcript is provided for information purposes only.EarningsCall, LLC makes no representation about the accuracy of the aforementioned transcript, and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the information provided by the transcript.

Dovalue Spa
2/27/2026
Good morning, this is the Court Call Conference Operator. Welcome and thank you for joining the Doe Value Preliminary Full Year 2025 Financial Results Presentation. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, they may signal an operator by pressing star and zero on their telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Daniele Della Seta, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.
Good morning, everyone. I'm Daniele Della Seta, Head of Investor Relations at The Value. I'm joined by Manuela Planchin, our Group CEO, and Davide Socritti, our Group CFO, as we present our preliminary full year 2025 results. Manuela will begin with an overview of our performance, including key insights into market and business trends. Next, Davide will provide a detailed analysis of our financial results for the future. We'll conclude with a Q&A session to address any questions you may have. Thank you for joining us today. I will now hand over to Manuela.
Good morning, everyone. Let me start clearly and concisely. We delivered. We met our 2025 business plan target for both cash flow and a bid day. Our second consecutive year of delivery on the three-year business plan. And we reached several milestones even earlier than planned. And we achieved this in a particularly challenging phase of our industry. while also executing two major M&A transactions that will reshape the future of our company. Before walking you through the results, which together present a solid and consistent picture, I want to thank all the people at DoValue. Their commitment and hard work have enabled us to accomplish what many in the market doubted would be possible. Commercial momentum remains strong, with new business intake closing at roughly 15 billion 1.8 times the annual business plan targets and a pipeline that continues to support visibility into 2026. Profitability strengthened, with the BDA at CNRI reaching a record 2017 million and margin at 37%, up 3 percentage points year on year. The near completion of the garden integration is now contributing to improved efficiencies across the platform setting the strong foundation for the next year. Cash generation was also very strong, with the free cash flow at 76 million, well above guidance. These results supported both the leveraging and the return to dividend payment in accordance with dividend policy. On a recurring basis, free cash flow was 93 million, bridging the gap towards the 2026 90 million targets. Net leverage stood at two times at year-end, fully in line with guidance, even after accounting for extraordinary payouts linked to the M&A activities, such as $6 million cash out for Alba Leasing, which was not contemplated when the guidance was announced. As for COEL, I know that, just like us, you are eager to see the performance reflected in our numbers. The transaction is expected to close shortly, with no execution issues. Coeo delivered another year of strong double-digit organic growth, with files intake up 23% in 25, a well ahead of our buyer case, but also seller case. Altogether, we entered 26 with a stronger business, a clearer trajectory, and the foundation to deliver our next set of targets, including Coeo. If you follow me on page three, let me start from the bigger picture. DoValue today plays a system-level role in Europe's financial stability. We operate at a scale that very few players in Europe can match, managing over 4.3 million positions across individuals and businesses. All of this before COEL, which will more than double the number of data points with a broader scope. This team has one of the largest behavioral credit database in the market. An asset that allow us to anticipate patterns, tailor strategies, and support the functioning of the financial system with evidence-based decision-making. This is the context in which our portfolio proves sustainable across cycles. It is diversified by design and managed by specialized professionals operating in areas where AI alone is not enough. First, diversification. Our portfolio is no longer a single asset NPL story. Alongside MP Health, we manage a large UTP perimeter, about 1 million positions, where we act as a structuring partner to protect value heavily. And we are developing a growing and performing base, currently of 400,000 positions, that extracts value from proactive debt management. Second, runaway and capacity. Look at 25 impact indicators at the bottom. 58,000 positions recovered from individuals, 21,000 from businesses, 12,000 positions restructured, and 3,000 re-performing positions collected. All these figures show a substantial annual throughput, but when you said that against the overall stock of 4.3 million outstanding positions, it's clear there is ample embedded opportunity in the existing book, a lot still to convert, which underpins visibility for the coming years. Third, AI resilience. 88% of our portfolio is made up by loans above €50,000, typically complex, bespoke, and legal intensive. Here, AI augments our execution capabilities, but outcomes are driven by highly specialized asset managers who cannot be replaced by AI-only models, also due to the proprietary nature of our dataset, which encompass decades of data and is not available to third-party models. In short, our scale, our data set, and the complexity we manage make Duvalio one of the few players that truly matter for Europe's financial stability. And they give us a long, predictable, and high-resilient path of value creation. With that foundation, let me turn to the 25 new business inflow on page four. In 25, GDP from new business reached almost 15 billion. 1.8 times our initial business plan targets, confirming the strength of our commercial engine. New mandates continue to grow in the fourth quarter by nearly 1 billion, including around 600 million from Banca Project in Italy and 200 million from the new contribution fund launched in December by DuValue through its asset management platform focused on state-guaranteed loans. Spain also added 200 million in the quarter with mandates from a major banking institution. We also saw sustained forward flow from existing customers, which showed total 4.3 billion for the year, covering around 80% of collections. This performance was mainly driven by solid contribution across countries with continued acceleration in flows from Santander in Spain up 60% year on year. which has been recently renewed for an additional year without any front payment. If we take a step back, the scale of what we have achieved over the past two years becomes even clearer. While banks boost MPE ratios and cost of risk at historical lows, we secure 24 billion of cumulative new business, nearly 11 billion of which from banks. This is not just commercial success. It's a tangible demonstration of the systemic role of our industry in Europe's financial ecosystem. Banks, funds, and institutions rely on our and our competitor platform through the cycle. And this is precisely what underpins the long-term sustainability of our business. Let's now turn to page five. Here we outline our pipeline, already reflecting the broader scope and diversification of the group after the co-acquisition. What you see on this page is not just the next wave of inflows, but the shape of a business that is becoming structurally wider, more diversified and more balanced across products and geographies. The MP pipeline is large and diversified. This pipeline amounts to 50 billion well distributed across countries and asset classes. with almost a quarter being UDP. I would like to take a moment to clarify the tax credit opportunity in Italy. As part of the 26 budget law, the government has introduced a new framework to recover unpaid tax and property revenues from local authorities, with AMCO appointed to orchestrate the collection efforts. A decree expected in March will define the operational parameters, including the potential outsourcing to licensed operators a key enabling step for volumes to flow. We are currently working on obtaining a license in order to be among the selected sub-services. For now, the initial stock identified as recovered amounts to roughly 20 billion, and we are prudently including 4 billion of what's in our pipeline as the share realistically attainable by the value. But it's important to be clear, these figures represent only the first phase of the opportunity, specifically the local authority receivables that were already assigned to the Agencia dell'Entrate. If the model proves effective and scalable, the pipeline would expand materially, potentially including local authority receivables currently handled by smaller local operators, central government receivables today managed exclusively by Agencia dell'Entrate. Parallelly, on the Coero side, the pipeline is extremely strong, with potential for additional annual revenue of over 250 million. This means that with the current in the market, Coero could effectively be more than double its annual revenue and largely diversify its customer base. Indeed, two-thirds of the pipeline comes from sectors beyond e-commerce, including telcos, insurance, and mobility. All this comes from opportunities in markets where Coero is currently present. Once we look at expanding Coeo into the value, this opportunity factor expands. We included a deep dive for Italy and Spain, and you can see there are plenty of sectors with small ticket receivables that Coeo could tap with its highly automated digital recovery processes. Let's now turn to page six. Here we turn the market backdrop. Insolvency has been rising across the EU. with bankruptcy declaration up 18% year-on-year in 24 and 25-month rate, reaching the highest level since 19. In Q4 25, seasonally adjusted declarations were once again up quarter-on-quarter, underscoring that the trends remain live. By country, the picture is fully defined with what we observe on the ground. Greece recorded an average plus 20% quarterly increase through 2025. Italy is expected to exceed pre-pandemic insolvency levels. Germany started its upswing later, but is expected to continue. And Spain shows insolvency levels contained but higher versus 10 years ago across most markets. Now an important point of contest. Our business plan 24-26 was built without assuming any macroeconomic shock or deterioration. Despite that, we have delivered new business significantly above expectation in both 24 and 25, even while banks were reporting historically low new MPE ratios and cost of risk. What this means is that in an already benign credit environment, the value has still captured strong inflows and commercial traction. And if the current insolvency trend persists or broadens, it represents potential upside versus intake assumed in our plan, with the usual time lag between filing and onboarding, and with the same discipline on mix and pricing, guiding what we choose to service. Now on to a more cheerful note. Let's move to page 7 for an update on COEL. 25 has been another really strong year for them, despite management being largely involved with a long and complex sales process to do value. Coel grew new files by 23% to 9.6 million files, reflecting both in market client growth, notably in telco across Germany, Sweden, and the UK, and client-driven expansion into three new markets, Switzerland, Norway, Finland, without M&As. On the digital engagement and service quality, Coeo is running AI-enabled interaction across Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, Austria, Sweden, and Norway, delivering over 1 million customer interaction completely digital whilst maintaining excellent customer satisfaction metrics. On the financial side, Coeo delivered around 60 million EBITDA in 2025, excluding EBITDA coming from the hybrid model. with a 35% increase in portfolio investments, which fuel future collections revenue growth. It's important to note that this 35% increase in portfolio investments was entirely funded through the fund cash generation of the business, evidence of the sustainability of the hybrid model. Moving to page eight. We have initially hoped to close the co-op transaction by January, The closing is still pending without any issues. I'd like to give you some color on the process. The transaction is cleared by four major authorities in several countries where COEA operates. We are waiting clear from just one last authority in Germany. The timeline was extended due to the document collection and examination requirements across multiple jurisdictions and counterparts and administrative multi-party review that's simply taken longer than anticipated. Importantly, there has been no change to the perimeter on terms agreed and we remain fully engaged with the authority on the remaining steps. From an execution readiness standpoint, we are prepared to move quickly once clearance arrives. We have already agreed the integration plan structured along seven work streams. Governance, finance, HR, IT, procurement, AI and business expansion. with clear owners, detailed checklists, and no disruption expected for clients. The AI Workstream is set to make well the group AI app for small tickets, digital first flows, while presenting our high-touch approach on complex exposures. We will close promptly upon receipt of the final clearance and are operationally ready to integrate from day one. First, we operate in two very different arenas. Now, you can see it on page nine. Here we want to comment upon the recent noise about what the AI winners and losers will be. And we want to be very complete about how AI touches our business. On the one hand, we manage mid-large secured loans. Our full book with an average ticket of around 70,000 euro where AI mainly improves cost efficiency and workflow orchestration. But outcomes still require experienced asset managers. Here, AI is an enabler with limited impact on economics, not a substitute for human expertise. Osmol and Secure Tickets, AI matters more because full automation is needed to make unit economic work. That is exactly why we choose to enter this segment through COAO, A digital AI-driven platform built for scale. In practice, we are already using AI where it moves the needle. Digital debtor portals and channels are live in Greece. About 30% of 0 to 90 days collections are rendered digitally. We are also using modeling and advanced analytics for segmentation and propensity to pay. Virtual agents to support our teams on case-free alch. Responses and call wrap-ups. And document analytics to extract facts from judicial and notarial files. The impact is visible. With the initial adoption of the digital platform in Greece, small ticketed BDA margin increased from roughly 33% to 89%. A step change that illustrates how automation can lower the cost to collect without compromising governance. It's equally important to explain why we are structurally protected as AI adoption accelerates in three ways. First regulation, our activities require licenses and human oversight. AI cannot hold a servicing license or assume legal responsibility under certain regulations. So human in the loop is mandatory in our market. Second data, AI needs domain specific training data DuValue owns one of the southern Europe's most extensive proprietary credit recovery databases, which is private and not available to third-party models. Third, complexity. Corporate and secure recoveries are bespoke and legally intensive. Local code filing, multi-party negotiation are at the heart of our business. Automation can manage low-value, high-volume cases. Experts drive outcomes on complex scales. Our strategy is clear. Automate a scale where automation wins. Small tickets via COEL. And augment human expertise where value is created. Secured and complex claims add to value. All under a roadmap with a clear guardrail. Regulation, data, and complexity will continue to be durable modes as AI progresses. Let's now turn to page 10, with an overview on the German market, which will become very important for us. Germany is now the number-two MPL market in Europe by stock held on banks' balance sheets, at 46 billion, up 24% versus 2019, and 21% larger than the current Italian size. Importantly, this 46 billion figure covers banks only, It excludes positions held by investors, fintechs, and debt purchasers, and receivables from non-financial entities served by COEVO. So the true addressable market is materially larger than unbalanced sheet numbers. Yes, the servicing market is underdeveloped. It's highly fragmented, with servicers typically specialized by client segments and not meaningfully consolidated today. leading limited-scale platforms, and clear scope for a consolidator to bring multi-client, multi-product capabilities. On execution, the regulatory bar is also a differentiator. Since 24, Germany requires a CSI license to operate in credit servicing. We have secured the license, established to value Germany, onboarded project staff, and identified the KIs, completed the first market analysis, upgraded system to run MPL workflows, and aborted an initial client, aiming to make profits already in 27. All these are concrete, tangible steps and not simple intentions. Strategically, this expansion is the first synergy of the COE acquisition. Germany is COE's largest market, so even ahead of clothing, we are not standstill. We are leveraging Coel footprint and GT stack to accelerate entry, demonstrating that we are proactive and already putting the model in motion to scale quickly once consolidation is completed. To sum up, a large and growing German MPL pool plus a fragmented servicing landscape creates room for a sizable opportunity. We are in market licenses and building capacity. using COERCE, the first synergy of the deal, to ensure that once consolidation is completed, we can scale delivery from day one. Before I hand over to Davide to walk you through the financials, let's turn to page 11 and look at the progress made so far on the business plan horizon. This is our second consecutive year of delivery-based guidance, and we are ahead on the 2024-26 business plan. Cumulatively, we have already reached the full three-year new business target in just three years. More than 24 billion of GDP from new business in 24 and 25 only. Engine 2 of Growth is delivering. The digital platform is live in all countries. Our alternative asset management company is above 1 million of fee generating AUM with two new funds launched in recent months. Fintech has already intermediated 2,000 mortgage applications and our advisory unit continues to expand. With the consolidation of COAO and GIM2 will become the group main business and represent the majority of group revenue from day one, not over time, shifting the group revenue mix and outlines at the capital market day. On capital structure, we delivered as well. We refinanced 2526 bonds by summer 25, and in October 25, issued the 350-2031 notes at a coupon 160 bps lower than the February issue, despite the longer maturity. Our bonds trade at a yield to maturity below 5%, sorry, the lowest in the industry, and we still see room to optimize interest costs through further refinancing. Finally, financial performance is in line with guidance. GDP of 136 billion, EBITDA of 217 million, XNRI, free cash flow of 76 million, net leverage of two times. So overall, we are delivering what we said. We are ahead on the transformation and we are doing it with a capital structure and a financial profile that supports that space. Actually, we didn't just deliver on the numbers. We over-delivered on our strategic position. We expanded our geographical footprint, strengthened our AI capabilities, and broadened our product scope with an acquisition that will open a new chapter for DoValue at the next Capital Markets Day. And we did all this while keeping leverage in check and delivering on every standalone target. I will now hand over to Davide who will take you through the financial results in more details.
You're reading a preview of the DOVXF Q4 2025 earnings call.
Free account.