5/15/2026

speaker
Coruscall Conference Operator
Conference Operator

Good morning, this is the Coruscall Conference Operator. Welcome and thank you for joining the Dual Value First Quarter 2026 Financial Results presentation. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode, and after the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, they may signal an operator by pressing star and zero on their telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Daniele Della Seta, Head of Investor of DuValue. Please go ahead, sir.

speaker
Daniele Della Seta
Head of Investor Relations and M&A, DuValue

Good morning, everyone. I'm Daniele Della Seta, Head of Investor Relations and M&A at DuValue. I'm joined by Manuela Fanti, our Group CEO, and Davide Soccetti, our Group CFO, as we present our Q1 2026 financial results. Manuela will begin with an overview of our project. including key insights into market and business trends. Next, Davide will provide a detailed analysis of our financial results for this quarter. We will conclude with a Q&A session to address any questions you may have. Thank you for joining us today. I will now hand over to Manuela.

speaker
Manuela Fanti
Group CEO, DuValue

Good morning, everyone. Let me start with the three key messages. We confirm our full year guidance of 800 million revenue and 300 million EBITDA performed for the acquisition of Coeo, with the Q1 in line with our internal facing. Coeo, the engine of our next growth phase, is performing ahead of expectation on every metric, with commercial synergies already activated. Commercial momentum across our core servicing business remains strong and increasingly diversified, with non-STL asset classes taking the lead. The year-on-year comparison reflects a very strong Q1 2025 pace. To be clear, last year was not supported by non-recurring items. It bursted from an unusual time in concentration of revenue effects that normally materialize across different quarters of the year. On a like-for-like basis, EBITDA would have been broadly stable year-on-year. This is why our $55 million EBITDA for COE is fully consistent with our full-year guidance and internal savings. Historically, the first quarter represents between 15% and 20% of full-year EBITDA, and on top of that, we will consolidate the full contribution of COE from Q2, a business that is growing at a sustained pace. Taken together, this puts us on the trajectory towards the 2026 combined target. Commercially, the quarter also confirmed a momentum of continuous. New business reached $1.6 billion, in line with the $8 billion annual target, with a healthy contribution from both new mandates and forward flow agreements. Most importantly, Coel's performing ahead of expectation on every key metric. In Q1, Coel revenue grew by 26 year-on-year, and EBITDA XNRI was around $26 million. Clean-up portfolio collections From Q2 onwards, Coeo turns to value into broader, faster-growing and a high-enabled group, with the first commercial synergies already started and revenue synergies expected to materialize from third quarter. A quick update on the timing of our Capital Markets Day. Given that Coeo closed in mid-April and is central to the new phase of the group, We want the new business plan to fully reflect Coeo management, platform and growth opportunities, as well as all the technology levels which will enable our growth and operating efficiencies. We will therefore hold the Capital Markets Day in October, presenting an integrated business plan for the combined group from day one. On automation, Coeo continues to show why it's one of the most advanced platforms in its segment. reporting more than 17% of cases resolved digitally. Finally, our capital structure remains solid. Net leverage was 2.3 times at quarter end. On track, power 2.2 times by year end. And Fitch reaffirms our double B rating with stable outlook in April, after the co-op meeting. On this basis, the board has resolved a dividend of 0.09 per share, payable next week. Sustainable and recurring cash generation will allow us to approach shareholder remuneration in a consistent and pragmatic way going forward. And we will share more details at the October Capital Markets Day. To sum up, Q1 was in line with our internal setting. The year-on-year dynamic reflects timing rather than underlying the trends. COEL is performing ahead of expectations. And with the closing of COEL, the group enters a new phase of growth. diversification and value creation. If you follow me on page 3, let's move to Coeo. Here the message is very positive. First, one important point. The Q1 numbers you see on this page are not yet consolidated into value-reported first quarter results, since the transaction closed on April 16, after quarter end. Coeo is the engine of our next phase of growth, and will fully consolidate to our TNL from April onwards. And this engine is already running at full steam. Cohered very strong first quarter. Revenues were up 26% year on year. File intake grew by more than 40% and the revenue run rate is already well ahead of our expectation. This confirms the quality of the assets that we have acquired and the strength of its digital first model. Importantly, this growth is becoming more diversified. Klarna remains a key client, but is now significantly less than half of total file. More than 60% of files are non-Klarna, supported by new clients in Germany, the Netherlands, and Sweden, as well as renewal across existing clients. On automation, Coel continues to show why it's one of the most advanced platform in its segment. It processes 345,000 high customer interaction in the quarter, up 26%, with 70% of activity handled digitally. This is translating into real efficiency, with the revenue per quarter up 24% year-on-year. The platform is also expanding geographically to a proven greenfield playbook that requires very limited capital expenditures. Sweden is a good example. After just one year, revenues grew by 77% year-on-year, reaching 6 million in the quarter. Denmark has now been confirmed as an additional market, bringing the Duvelio Group to 14 countries in 2026. At the same time, Coeho is starting expansion in Italy and Spain by leveraging the collaboration with Duvelio. And this is already becoming a group opportunity. We have activated commercial synergies with three major clients in Italy and Spain, starting to be managed from June 26, and operational synergies are also underway, including the deployment of Coeo CHI voice agents and CRM capabilities to do value. The takeaway is simple. While reported Q1 does not yet include Coeo, the combined group is already materially stronger. From Q2, we begin consolidating a business that is growing faster than expected, highly automated, increasingly diversified, and already generating tangible synergies with the value. Let's now turn to page 4 and look at why co-op growth is structural. Co-op operates in markets that benefit from several long-term growth trends. The first one is the continued expansion of e-commerce across COEAO core geography, DAC, the Nordics and the UK. E-commerce is expected to continue growing over the coming years, with annual growth rates in the high single digits. The second trend is the increasing penetration of buy now, pay later within e-commerce. Even in the markets where buy now, pay later is already well established, penetration remains far from saturated. In other words, most e-commerce transactions are still paid through traditional methods, which means there is still meaningful room for buy-now-pay-later related receivables to grow within CREO's existing market perimeter. And the third, even larger opportunity is beyond buy-now-pay-later. Non-banking receivables, including telco, utilities, insurance, mobility and commercial receivables, represent a much broader addressable market. There are high volumes, granular receivables, where traditional human-aided servicing model is often too expensive, but where COEO digital and AI-enabled platforms can create attractive economics. This is the key point. Coel does not need to rely on one single growth driver. It benefits from growth in e-commerce, growth in binocular penetration within e-commerce, and growth in broader non-banking receivables outside binoculars. In that, the Nordics and the UK, where Coel is already operating, this creates a clear and immediate runaway. These are markets where the platform is already present, where client relationships are already in place, and while there is still significant wide space to capture. Italy, Greece, and Spain represent an additional opportunity, but with a different timing. These markets are still much smaller in terms of buy-now-pay-later and digital receivable penetration, so we see them as medium- to long-term growth options. The important point is that two values are already at scale, local presence and institutional relationship in these countries. So, as these markets develop, we will be positioned with Coel technology and operating model into them. Let's now turn to new business on page five. Our commercial engine continues to perform. Year to date, new business reached 1.6 billion in line with the trajectory towards the 8 billion annual target. Considering the usual spacing of the year and the pipeline I had. This is a solid result, particularly because this year, There wasn't any sale of a large legacy portfolio like the Alphabet One agreed last year, and still delivered 1.6 billion of new business. This is business as usual. The mix is also encouraging. In Italy, we signed 460 million of new servicing mandates with non-NPL access classes, including performance and UTP exposures, accounting for around 70% of new mandates in Italy. This confirms that diversification is progressing in practice and not only in our strategic narrative. In the Hellenic region, new mandates amounted to around 300 million with a balanced contribution from Cyprus and Greece. We also completed the first ever sale of re-performing loans in Greece while retaining the servicing of the portfolio. an important signal that the Greek market is evolving and that re-performing loans are becoming a recognized and investable asset class. Polar flow remains solid at around 700 million in the quarter. In Italy, Biver contract flow were up 20% year-on-year, despite the fact that the Banca Popolare di Sondrio perimeter will only start contributing after completion of the merger with Biver, which occurred on April 20, 2006. This means that we expect some contribution from Sondrio flows from Q2 with a full effect from Q3 onwards as well as the stock to the assets. Importantly, new inflows were 1.45 times collection, supporting GPD stabilization. So the method is simple. Even in a clear banking system and a normalized MPE market, Duvello continues to generate new business replenish its servicing base and expand into more diversified asset classes. Let's now turn to the market backdrop on page 6. The European empty market has evolved into a new equilibrium underpinning more than 2 billion of acceptable servicing revenues across our core footprint over 26-29 periods. This is not the same market we had 10 years ago, since the peak of the MPL cycle and banks were dealing with very large legacy stocks. The market is smaller than the peak MPL market of the past, but more disciplined, more recurring, and more sustainable. And this is where the role of the servicer has become systemic. This is visible across our footprint. In Italy, we see approximately 5 to 6 billion of annual MP disposals from banks plus 8 billion of secondary disposal, and the country remains the number one destination for European NPL capital allocation in 26. In Spain, primary and secondary disposal together exceed 10 billion annually, with the market entering a regulatory transition under the EU NPL directive. In Greece, we have around 5 billion annual flows from banks and secondary transactions, supported by GDP growth of around 6.5%, and an expanding state receivable of stock above $100 billion. In Germany, the BNP stock has grown 62% versus 2019, to around $50 billion in a highly fragmented servicing market with no structured incumbent. A clear opportunity for skilled, technology-enabled operators like us. The second message is equally important. The opportunity is no longer limited to banking MPs. Technology and AI are making economically viable to serve adjacent asset classes that were historically less profitable under a traditional human-heavy servicing model. This is exactly where the combination with Coel becomes strategically powerful. Duvalio brings scale, licenses, institutional relationships, and deep servicing expertise. COE brings a highly automated AI-enabled platform for small-ticket, high-volume receivables. Together, we can address both sides of the market, the new equilibrium in banking and ETH, and the emerging opportunities in address and credit and receivable segments. Let's now move to page 7, to strategic execution. Beyond the quarterly numbers, Q1 was an important quarter in terms of delivery against the key strategic priorities of the group. First on gardens, the integration is now completed. The seven work streams have been closed. The platform is fully consolidated and synergies are entering through a rate. This is a clear example of execution ahead of plan. This is also visible in the cost base. Staff costs were down 7% year-on-year at group level. confirming that the integration is not only completed from an organizational standpoint, but is also translating into tangible efficiencies. Second, we are preparing for new revenue pools in adjacent markets. In Italy, the 26 budget law positions AMCO as the central procurement platform for the recovery of local tax receivables, and the implementing decree is expected to define the operating rules and the addressable volumes. This could turn that what has historically been a fragmented and ad hoc opportunity into a more institutional and transparent market. For Duvalio, this is exactly the type of opportunity we want to capture in the next phase. Although not traditional banking and PE servicing, but it's very close to our capabilities. Data collection, legal processes, operating scale and technology. Third, we continue to strengthen our commercial positions. In Q1, we won a new servicing mandate from a new client, a leading global asset manager, reinforcing our role with top tier investors and in secondary transactions. At the same time, the first step of BRIC re-performing loan sales confirms what new asset classes are becoming investable and that DoValue is well positioned to remain the servicer of reference as this market evolves. So the message on execution is clear. Garden is the limit, synergies are ahead of plan, new regulatory opportunities are emerging, and institutional client diversification is progressing. The group is moving towards a broader, more fast-growing segment of this market. And it is executing on this roadmap with very solid partnerships. I will now hand over to Davide who will take you through the financial performance of the quarter in more detail.

speaker
Davide Soccetti
Group CFO, DuValue

Thank you, Manuela. Good morning, everyone. Let's start on page 9 with the overview of Q126 financial results. As Manuela mentioned, the quarter developed in line with our internal facing of the year. It is worth recalling that Q1 is structurally the smallest host in terms of contribution to annual profitability, historically representing around 15-20% of full-year ABTDA. The year-on-year comparison should be read against a particularly high of Q1-25 base, which was boosted by an unusual timing concentration of regular effects spread across the area. On a normalized basis, the TDA would have been broadly stable year-on-year. Gross revenue stood at 120 million. The trend reflects the facing effects I just mentioned, particularly in Italy. Looking over a two-year time horizon, gross revenue is up 24% versus Q1-24, which better reflects the step-up in the platform following the data acquisition. Net revenues was $107 million, also reflecting the same top-line dynamics. ABCDA XMRIs was $35 million, the area-on-year trend near-roses of trend dynamics, mitigated by continued cost savings across regions. When adjusting for the unusual time and concentration to $1.25, the underlying ABCDA performance would have been slightly better year-on-year. The BTDA margin was 29%. This remains above the 26% margin recorded in Q1-24, while the 36% margin in Q1-25 reflected an atypically strong first quarter, driven by the same time concentration and gut attrition in a quarter that is normally low sonality. Below BTDA, net financial interest, excluding non-recurring items, decreased by 3 million in a year, from 13 million in 2025 to 10 million in 2026. Net income, excluding non-recurring items, was approximately negative 1 million, reflecting the BTDA trend, but supported by the above-mentioned improvement in financial charts. Report to the net income was negative 10 million, including around 9 million of below EBITDA in order carving items, mainly related to costs associated to new 2031 bond and employee exit costs. To summarize this page, Q1 developed in line with our internal spacing. The year-on-year comparison reflects a not fully represented response to the Q1 25 days. Normalized EBITDA is broadly stable, and the benefits of our refinancing are already visible below EBITDA. Moving now to page 10, we show the regional back down of gross revenues. Group gross revenues rose 120 million, down 15% a year, reflecting the time effects I just described, which were concentrated mainly in Italy. But Italy's pain mostly declined, reflecting the control of the contribution of disposals and value-added services recorded in Q1 last year. The Atlantic region was only marginally down, again reflecting facing of disposals, while collection in Greece grew 14% year-on-year, in line with expectations. Pain, on the other hand, grew year-on-year, with NPR servicing more than offsetting the exit from Santander Rio perimeter. The contribution in absolute terms remains modest, but it confirms that Spanish platform is successfully repositioning towards a more focused NPR servicing model. The revenue mix also continues to diversify. Non-NPR revenues reached 43% of gross revenues in Q1, and this is before the consolidation of Coelho from Q2. Outsourcing fees stood at 11.3% of gross revenues, driven by higher value-added sales revenues, which are characterized by greater share outsourcing costs. Moving now on page 11. Operating expenses decreased by 7% year-on-year from 77 million to 70 million, reflecting continued cost discipline across all regions and the positive run-rate effect of government synergies. Staff costs were down by around 4 million year-on-year, with all market This confirms that the integration work and the cost actions implemented over the past quarters are translating into visible savings. IT and SG&A costs also increased by 5% year-on-year, supported by cost initiatives across regions and accelerated synergies in Italy. The overall reduction reflects both structural efficiencies and the lower viable costs in a lower revenue quarter. with some variable costs expected to come back as activity increases. Moving on to page 12, ABTDA reflects the combination of the two dynamics we have just discussed. Reported revenues were affected by timing, while post-discipline helped protect profitability. Group ABTDA excluding non-recurring items was 35 million with 29% margin. In the Hellenic region, ABTDA was brutally stable year-on-year. Q1-25 included around 3 million of disposal-related contributions in Greece, a component that would normally materialize at a second out, and the absence of this contribution this quarter was offset by cost efficiency leading to a 40-percent margin. In Italy, ABTDA was impacted by the same compulsion-based effect discussed in the revenues. Spain delivered possibly a BTDA already in the first quarter, more than doubling year-on-year, delivered by growth in MPI 17 revenues and cost efficiencies. Non-recurring ambitants at the BTDA level were very needed, at a negative 0.1 million in a low seasonality quarter. On a normalized basis, group of BTDA would have been gradually stable year-on-year. Moving on page 13, which shows a bridge from EBITDA to net income. Below EBITDA, dynamics reflect the benefits of the refinancing completed the last year, with net financial interest improving by 3.4 million year-on-year. Depreciation, amortization and net impairment were broadly stable year-on-year at 17.8 million, while net provision adjustments stood at 4.8 million. Net international interest, improved by 3.4 million to 15.8 million, at Q1 2025, had stopped the early reduction costs on the senior secure loans due in 2026. Taxes decreased, reflecting the lower profit before tax, and minorities were also down year on year, in line with the quarterly performance. As a result, net income, excluding non-retiring items, was approximately negative 1 million. with the BTDA decline only partially offset by lower financial charges. The reported net income was negative 10.2 million. The 9 million gaps versus the adjusted figures reflect two distinct items in the BTDA, redundancy costs and the bridge financing interest on the bond issued to fund the Korea acquisition, which was classified as not recurring until closing of the restructuring on April 16th. Moving to page 14, let's have a look at the cash flow dynamics. Q1 cash flow followed the usual seasonal pattern of our business. Q1 is structurally the weakest order in terms of cash generation, while the part of the cash flow is generated in the second half, and particularly in Q4. To give you a sense of the magnitude, in 2025-2024 alone accounted for 54 million free cash flow out of the 76 million for the full year. In Q126, cash flow from motivation was negative 12.8 million, reflecting the lower EBITDA in the water and the temporary working capital absorption. Free cash flow was negative 28 million. is the mirror image of a particularly strong Q4-25 when collection and invoicing dynamics work within our server. It also reflects technical timing effects in the invoicing cycle, including legal expenses in risk. Working capital movements can vary significantly from the one quarter to the next, which is why we manage and track this metric on a full year basis. On that basis, we expect working capital to normalize with the material released over the course of the year. CapEx was 3.9 million, up 1.7 million year-on-year, reflecting front-loaded investments in our digital platform and AI capabilities. This is in line with our internal plan, and we confirm the full-year CapEx guidance. To summarize, Q1 cash flow reflects the normality of our business and the working capital absorption that is counterpart to the particularly strong Q4-25. The full year project is remaining on track and we expect working capital to become a positive contributor as the year progresses. To conclude, let's now move to page 15 and take a look at our financial structure. Net financial leverage at the end of March stood at 2.3 times, reflecting normal Q1 tonality, and we remain on track towards 2.2 times by the end. The group maintains a solid liquidity buffer of 269 million, made up of 122 million cash on balance sheet and 147 million on draw revolving credit facilities, providing significant financial flexibility after the QEA closing. which affirmed our double B rating with stable outlook in April, after the quarter closing, confirming the sustainability of the capital structure for the larger group. Our bonds trade at around 5% yield to maturity, among the lowest in the industry, and our average cost of debt stands at 6.3%. The 350 million senior secured notes due to 2021 issued in November to Finance Ohio were released from the scroll upon closing on April 16th. Looking ahead, we continue to see opportunities to optimize our cost of debt as we deliver it. In short, leverage is seasonal and under control. Liquidity is strong. The rating is confirmed and the capital structure supports the next phase of the group. This is all on our side for today. Thank you all for your attention. We will now take your questions.

speaker
Coruscall Conference Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. This is the Coral School Conference operator. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star N1 on their tapstone telephone. To remove yourself from the question queue, please press star N2. Please pick up the receiver when asking questions. Anyone who has a question may press and one at this time. First question is from Tommaso Niedu Kepler-Schöbre.

speaker
Daniele Della Seta
Head of Investor Relations and M&A, DuValue

Hello and thank you a lot for taking my questions. The first question on my side is on Coero, which you said it did 26 million euro EBITDA in Q1 alone, which seems a pretty good result. But my question is how does it compare with the full year 2025 results that you talked about, about around €55 to €60 million. So how can we compare it with today's number and if the pyramid portfolio impact is different, can you help us with some more details on that? The second one is on networking capital. Networking capital absorbed 35 million in Q1, but you confirmed the 2026 guidance also on cash flow. So does that mean that you confirmed the 15 million positive networking capital contribution for the full year? And when should we see this reversal in terms of phasing? And just a last quick one on portfolio sale on the 100 million euro portfolio disposal at Coeo. Can you give us an update on timing and on where you are in the process? Is it a single block sale or multiple tranches? And what we should expect in terms of expected sale price relative to the book? Thank you.

speaker
Davide Soccetti
Group CFO, DuValue

Thank you, Thomas. I will take your first two questions. As you will see, I'm very happy with the performance of Korea and I was very positive this quarter. Korea grew 27% versus the Q1 2025. But we want to stress that Q1 is typically stronger for Korea. because the capture collection rate to Black Friday in November and the Christmas period, so it tends to control part of the elite performance and makes the quarterly not fully representative of the error rate. If we were to extrapolate the good performance of the Q1 versus the 60 million 2025 reference and align it to SRS conversion, this would point to 26%. around 8 million, but this is just a linear extrapolation of the first quarter, but this is not, as I was saying, the first quarter has been very strong, and it's usually stronger than the following quarters. Going to the net working capital, I confirm, no, the absorption is temporary. It's working capital. The assets are there. Our target is still to recovery. this amount and also to benefit for the fact that we still have on our balance sheet a backlog coming from the previous year. This is why we decided to have a 50 million positive contribution from networking capital. This is with materialized nearly the last part of the year.

speaker
Manuela Fanti
Group CEO, DuValue

Regarding post project timing, we are aiming for the sale to be completed by June. The approach is to sell it to fund that we are raising because in this way compared to the sale of the third party, we would retain and also the asset management fees and more control over the flow agreements that comes with the COAO business. So apart from the option to sell to a third party, this is even more efficient from a revenue perspective. And we are in line with the timing vis-à-vis this approach. It will be the old portfolio sold and also the transfer of the flow agreement. The numbers that David has mentioned for 2025, the 60 million EBITDA, are without already the portfolio sale and is comparable to the 26 million of FirstQ that we have referenced.

speaker
David

Okay. Thank you.

speaker
Coruscall Conference Operator
Conference Operator

Next question is from Simonetta Chiriotti, Mediobanca.

speaker
Simonetta Chiriotti
Analyst, Mediobanca

Yes, good morning. It's a question from my side. The first is on the trend of the group excluding quail. Is it possible to recover a positive growth rate for the group standalone. I mean, you have confirmed the guidance, including Coeho. Coeho is doing better, so the question is, do you expect to recover any BDA of around That was the original plan for the standalone group. And in particular, do you see a positive growth in EBDA in Italy after the first quarter? Then, if you could comment on shareholders remuneration, in the past the possibility of a buyback as we mentioned so do you confirm this possibility and finally if you could comment if it is possible on the move that your major shareholder has made on Xacto so if there is any comment that you can share with us on this point thank you

speaker
Daniele Della Seta
Head of Investor Relations and M&A, DuValue

Thank you Simonetta. I'll take your first question and then Manuela will take the remaining one. So first, our official guidance is and will remain 300 million pro forma with COIO. That is the only number the company is guiding to. On the legacy business, Q1 was softer than we would have liked, but it would not be serious at this time to revisit a full year guidance after a single quarter, especially one with limited predictive value for the balance of the year. So we will be very cautious and we can't rule out at this time over performance in the coming months. So we can't rule out that and there is still a chance that we will meet the 240 million target. But finally, and most importantly, the strong performance of QEOS is closing significantly the risk our performance 300 million target. So our confidence in the one guidance that we have is reinforced right now. So you will remember the first quarter of 2025, which was really strong. but we didn't revisit the guidance at that time and because it's just a quarter, it's less significant one. So let's wait for the rest of the year to see how this will develop and we think that nowadays the most important data that you should take home is that the 300 million guidance is the risk overall.

speaker
Manuela Fanti
Group CEO, DuValue

On the shareholder remuneration we confirm the idea of activating a buyback in the second part of the year if the cash performance is in line with our expectation. We have also several other catalysts that will materialize in the next three, four months which we are working on. which support our foliar guidance. On the last point, I think the fortress movement is driven by a trend in the sector. You might have observed that some of the players are now acting later vis-à-vis what we have done two years ago of a right issue to strengthen the capital structure. We did it in the context of an acquisition. They are doing it only for balance sheet repair because both our sector and also Intrumas have restructured their debt two years ago and are coming with new maturity next year that they realized they couldn't afford. So it was a timing, very timed intervention of fortress that is entering at a very weak point in the story of a factor to get control with little money, to be fair. The other point is where is the trend of the sector. There have been very positive results on the small ticket side for the purchasers if you look to OIST and similar players. So the calendar provisioning is kicking in, and this is driving an expectation of a material increase in the small tickets, both corporate and bank. And this is also why we have repositioned ahead of time in that already last year with the acquisition of Coel. And the market trends in terms of results of these companies, as well as the balance sheet need of place like a sector and interim to create capacity to purchase more is an indicator of that. So there is a growth in that segment that they will capture through the purchase and we will capture through the servicing as well as the fund that we are raising. I hope it explains the strategic angle.

speaker
Coruscall Conference Operator
Conference Operator

Next question is from Antonio Gianfrancesco Intermonte.

speaker
Antonio Gianfrancesco
Analyst, Intermonte

Yeah, good morning and thank you for stating my question. I have two. The first one is still on free cash flow because you confirmed the full year guidance also in terms of free cash flow. But if I understand correctly, this guidance includes pro forma co-eco contribution. So I was wondering if you could help us understand how cash generation contribution should be split between legacy, the value perimeter and COEO. The second question is on new business because new business intake 1.6 billion in first quarter. with an early half of new mandates related to non-NPR products. So I was wondering if you could provide some color on the current pipeline for the remaining 2026. So both in terms of volumes and mix and whether the pipeline is increasingly skewed towards the UTP performing to performing loans and so on. Thank you.

speaker
Davide Soccetti
Group CFO, DuValue

I will take your first question on cash flow. Just to clarify, the 90 million guidance is for the stand-alone cash flow value before COIO, but the relief we add also the contribution of We need to include the positive contribution from the same portfolio we discussed before, that would be up to $9,100 million, and we need to exclude the interest on the board on an annual basis $19 million, and plus we need to deduct the $24 million of the transaction costs we are going to pay in this month.

speaker
Manuela Fanti
Group CEO, DuValue

On the new business intake, you're right that in the first queue, apart from the flow that pretty much the 700 million split between 80% NPL and 20% UTP coming from the Eurobank and from The rest was the vast majority was more on the UTP and performing side. Actually performing was the vast majority because of the Greek transaction and also the Italian transaction with an international fund. How we see the business in the rest of the year? Probably, apart from the flow that will remain with this mix, there is going to be a higher percentage, probably 70 to 80, on the UTP and performing side, and then on the small ticket that relates mostly the COEL business but also to the corporate receivables. It will be in coming presence of COEL in Italy, in Spain and in Greece in the fourth queue and also the pilots that we are doing in Greece with the three utilities. This will be the large driver of the growth in the last part of the year. To be clear that there is not a question of billion of GBV, but even the profitability and the type of collection is more around the number of files that you manage, that is typical also of the core business, rather than the Euro million amount. But overall the mix is similar. pretty much skewed towards the performing UTP for the traditional part and for the utilities and e-commerce for the new part.

speaker
Davide Soccetti
Group CFO, DuValue

Very clear. Thank you.

speaker
Coruscall Conference Operator
Conference Operator

Next question is from Davide Giuliano, Equita.

speaker
David

Hi, good morning and thank you for taking my questions. I have two. The first one is on the NP outlook and forward flow contracts. You reported the inflows from forward flow contracts of 700 million this quarter compared to 1.1 billion in Q1 2025. Can you provide more details on the evolution of the MP market? Are you seeing a reduction in the generation of MPs by banks compared to last year? And how much of this difference is due to the loss of the Unicredit contract? And the second one, just a quick update on fiscal credit servicing. Can you provide some details on the more than 250 million units? of potential revenues from servicing of fiscal credits? Do you include tax credits from the central government as well as local ones in this estimate? And what are your expectations in terms of market share and just if there are any updates on acquiring the license needed to operate in this segment? Thank you.

speaker
Manuela Fanti
Group CEO, DuValue

The difference between the 1.1 and the numbers of this year is that 80% is driven by unicredit and the remaining by a delayed incoming of the Santander new contracts of the new flows. As you know, we have given back at the end of the quarter part of the Rio business, and we are getting the new in-exchange MPL flow. So this will go up after cleaned up of the unigraded effect. But from the second two, we will also get the Sondrio flows, which will add to the picture. And at the data point, we mentioned that on the paper side, we have experienced a 20% growth of the flows quarter on quarter. On the tax credits, we have not included them in our budget, despite we are working on it, because the timing of the government decision progresses slow. As you know, in March, they were supposed to finalize all the new regulations, they are taking a bit more time, But the indication is clear in the public documents that AMCO will distribute this value across services. Our firm market share with AMCO is around 20-25% in general. Clearly here it's very much given also by the new license. the understanding is that it's probably more, it's better, it's more assumed to buy the license rather than for a new one because it requires a timing which is longer and we would like to be ready, we are with the system, but to be ready with the license as soon as possible, so we are working on that point with a few options. In terms of allocation to services, clearly I'm quoting will know only when the allocation will be made to them, which is in the last part of the year.

speaker
David

Thank you.

speaker
Coruscall Conference Operator
Conference Operator

The next question is from Davide Rimini in Teso San Paolo.

speaker
Davide Rimini
Analyst, Teso San Paolo

Good morning. Thank you for the presentation and for taking my questions. The first is just a clarification more on the reasoning why we decided to move forward the capital market date for October. I do understand that you will be able to get more to talk about sort of career performance, though at the same time you highlight how strong the team so far. performance this year, and you also added a few more highlights on the business, on the market that they are facing. I just wonder whether you might confirm that given the potential M&A target that you might have, going forward, is there anything instead that might suggest that You will come up with a more enlarged perimeter by the time you will present the next three years plan. This is the first question. The second question is more on the cash flow guidance for this year. I just wonder whether you might give us a little more color in terms of geography contributions. whether we should expect the most on these 90 million to come from. And the last question is just on slide six. And I recall you put a slide in earlier presentation, the pipeline. I just wonder whether these numbers might be reconciled with the 50 billion pipeline that you put in earlier presentation. Thank you.

speaker
Manuela Fanti
Group CEO, DuValue

Yes, I would take your question. Now, the timing of the October is not driven by MMA consideration because we have said that we have focused this year on integration. of Coeho starting the revenue opportunities, which are always no less controllable than the cost ones that we did for gardens, that is now fully completed. And on the leveraging, because as part of the M&A we are selling the 100 million portfolio that we still have to complete. So our focus will be on the delivery this year and on the full exploitation of the Coeho opportunity within our business plan. Consider that we have been able to work on the business plan with COEL for technical reasons, i.e. you cannot pass a certain type of information only after a closing that has happened in the second part of April. So on the other leg is the operating efficiencies. We want to be driving the sector by technology and it's not just a dream, it's the need of the sector to reinvent itself. And therefore we are working on a very detailed plan and action on the AI and to enable new revenues but more to rethink about the processes. and the way we do our business to extract as much cost efficiencies and productivity we can. So we want to lay that in a very clear manner in our plan. On the cash flow guidance, the main contributor will be BRIT because there is a higher stock of working capital there. The other countries don't have that stock accumulated and therefore will be the normal conversion of revenues to credit. On the pipeline, we tried to give a different picture of it, so it's consistent with the old one. It might be even larger, including Poeo, but we wanted to give more data points given that we are progressing obviously with the Capital Market Day, and we have done a total analysis of the future trajectory of the market in the next three to five years. So it was just a different way to show you that of the market.

speaker
Davide Rimini
Analyst, Teso San Paolo

Thank you.

speaker
Coruscall Conference Operator
Conference Operator

For any further questions, please press star N1 on your telephone. Once again, if you wish to ask a question, please press star N1 on your telephone. Mr. Della Seta, there are no more questions registered. Sorry, we have one more question from Simonetta Chiriotti, Mediobanca. Simonetta Chiriotti, your line is open.

speaker
Simonetta Chiriotti
Analyst, Mediobanca

Yes, thank you, sorry. If it is possible to have an update on Germany, and in particular on the activity in the NPL segment in that market that was flagged in the previous call as an important opportunity. And second question, I mean, we spoke of 2026 guidance, On a shorter term, is it possible to have some early guidance on the second quarter of the year? Thank you.

speaker
Manuela Fanti
Group CEO, DuValue

We didn't understand the first one. The voice was not very clear. Can you repeat?

speaker
Simonetta Chiriotti
Analyst, Mediobanca

Yes, on Germany. Yeah, it's possible to have an update on that market for your traditional activities.

speaker
Manuela Fanti
Group CEO, DuValue

Yes, definitely. There we had a couple of times, so we didn't repeat ourselves, but we have set up a division, we have done the hirings, we have the new headquarters for the MPE business, and we are managing the now to best. And we just bid for another RST for a larger bank, one of the top two private banks in the market, and we expect another one in the last part of the year. So that division is up and running, and in the 26% upside of COEO there is also that performance included for the first client that started end of last year.

speaker
Simonetta Chiriotti
Analyst, Mediobanca

Okay. And on the second quarter performance, is it possible to have some anticipation already?

speaker
Daniele Della Seta
Head of Investor Relations and M&A, DuValue

It is not common practice for the company to provide guidance on the sequential quarter, so we are still developing this quarter. It is developing, and as usual, the company will interact with markets in the due course.

speaker
Simonetta Chiriotti
Analyst, Mediobanca

Thank you.

speaker
Coruscall Conference Operator
Conference Operator

Mr. de la Seta, there are no more questions registered at this time.

speaker
Daniele Della Seta
Head of Investor Relations and M&A, DuValue

Thank you very much, everybody. Have a good day.

speaker
Coruscall Conference Operator
Conference Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining. The conference is now over. You may disconnect your telephones.

Disclaimer

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