Dsm Firmenich Ag

Good morning and thank you for joining today's call. I'm sitting here with Dimitri de Vreese, our CEO, and Rolf Smijts, our CFO. I hope you will have had time to look through our Q3 trading update and the presentation to investors, which you can find also on the website. As usual, you'll also find the disclaimers about forward-looking statements in these documents. Important is that sell set analysts who want to ask questions in the Q&A session should have registered via the questioners link. So that's different from what we did in the past. You can find that link on the website in the financial calendar. And if you have not done so, you still have plenty of time to do that. And with that, I hand over to Dimitri and Rolf. First, Dimitri, to talk you through the results. Dimitri, go ahead.

Thank you, Dave, and welcome to all of you. It's a great pleasure to be with you again. And I'm delighted to have the first time Rolf Smites sitting alongside me today as our chief financial officer. Rolf and I have worked together for many years in materials and in pharma, where we worked on major portfolio upgrades and divestments. And last year, Rolf was active as group controller. And we know each other very well. I'm delighted to have him here as our CFO. Before we jump into the financials, if we go to the next slide, I would like to share some context and clarity on how we execute in a challenging near-term environment. And indeed, if you can switch to the next slide, thank you. I would like to review a little bit where we are today from a macro, what you can expect from us on the micro, what we're doing in terms of portfolio review and how we look towards the future. Let me start with saying that it's a tough environment in which we operate and we see no inflection yet. There's weakness in China, although the recovery is there, but it's relatively slow. We see dynamics in vitamins, which basically we see continuing in Q3. And what we do see is that also there is destocking ongoing, although there are a few segments where we perhaps see destocking fading away. And we'll give you a bit of light and transparency later. We do see normalization of input prices, which will go through our stocks before it helps our bottom line. But the story is that the macro is there and will not bank on a strong recovery. We'll take actions as we speak. Micro will recover. This is an unprecedented situation. It will normalize. But in our actions, we basically take the destiny in terms of actions taking ourselves. And let me go through a bit of the micro. And you've seen that we have accelerated the integration synergies. which will give about 100 million of savings for next year. And you see already a little bit in Q4. We've launched in June our vitamin program with follow up in August, where we will see 100 million savings also for next year. And some of that already executed in Q4. And Ralph will read you through the cash numbers where we really focused on cash with an improved cash conversion rate and around 229 million of cash generation in Q3. In addition, we've announced that we will do a portfolio review to look at the high segments, high growth segments, high margin segments to prioritize where we put our money in terms of science and research, innovation, as well as CapEx resources and possibly M&A. And we will lead you through that in full transparency. We'll finalize that towards the end of the year and we will ring you through in the Capital Markets Day on that portfolio review. Or if you take that into account with a macro that will normalize and we don't bank on it, we take action ourselves, but it will normalize over time. The question is when. The micro way we will deliver on the actions which we have agreed with a two times 100 million for 2024. A portfolio review on the go with high growth, high margin segments where we put our money on. we do feel there's a strong future ahead for TSM Fibonacci. And I know that as a CEO, I may perhaps be slightly biased. And with that, Ralph, maybe we can run through the financial numbers. Over to you.

Good, and thanks, Dimitri, for your kind words. And good morning, everyone. Happy to be here. First time taking you through the numbers. I've been in the background in these calls, but very pleased to also engage with you and meet many of you in the roadshow ahead and the teaching sessions on P&B and taste, texture, and health that are coming up this month. Typically, this is a trading update at the third quarter, but we've also been providing you with some insights in the business performance and provided you with the EBITDAs of the business units, which I think is helpful in the context where we are. Dimitri painted overall the picture for the quarter. We don't see a change in trading conditions versus our second quarter. And overall, the micro is impacting our numbers, predominantly a vitamin impact, which you see in two of our four business units being animal nutrition and health and HNC. Overall, EBITDA is impacted by Vitamins FX. If you, however, adjust for that and compare on a like-for-like basis versus Q3 last year, you will see a growth in our business results. uh pleased with the cash performance uh in a sense that we've seen a turnaround and i think that was needed uh dimitri alluded to 229 million of cash uh uh conversion in the in the quarter that's a 56 which is a good step up and that is something uh that we want to take forward going forward then let's take a look at a couple of numbers on the next page Overall, you see organic growth down 7%, impacted by vitamins, pricing of about minus one. However, when you back out the vitamins, we actually see a mid single digit price growth. We see good pricing continuing in the majority of our businesses, which is helpful. And also the volume would be a modest decline when adjusting for the vitamins. Obviously, you see that translate into our EBITDA numbers with an increased vitamin impact of 170 million in the quarter. I'll explain that a little later when we get to animal nutrition and health, nutrition and care. However, when adjusting for an FX impact of about 30 million in the quarter, coupled with the vitamin impact, you actually see the organic growth in the business that I just earlier alluded to. It's going to be helpful to talk through a couple of the business units and provide you with some further insights, but good to stress that we have an organic performance in our businesses as well. If we then turn to the next page to perfumery and beauty, Here we see a good quarter, encouraging results. If you look at it from an organic point of view, overall, there is an organic growth of about 2% when you adjust for the Pinova sales. Let me remind you, that's the plant that got lost in a fire earlier in the year and will not restart. That has an impact of about 2%. And here you see that actually strong performance in the perfumery business is more than compensating. a weaker volume in ingredients, especially in the industrial segment, where volume and demand was low. Obviously, that translates into a strong mix, and we're very pleased with the EBITDA quality in this business. Fine fragrance showing a good growth in the quarter. Consumer fragrance, a very good growth in the quarter. And here we might actually see the first signs of destocking coming to an end. That translates into an overall 6% step up in EBITDA on a like-for-like basis compared to Q3 last year when adjusting for a negative impact of EVIX. Overall, a quality of 23%. So we're very happy with the performance in perfumery and beauty in the third quarter. Then looking at taste, textures, and health on the next page. Overall decline in volumes also related to predominantly ingredients, which is linked to the vitamin impact in taste, texture, and health, and weak volumes in predominantly our yeast extracts. offset by a very strong performance in our taste business, and also cultures and enzymes are growing well in the quarter. Obviously, that translates into a good EBITDA performance. We see 130 basis points step up in in margin to to over 18 which is is demonstrating the quality in this in this business there is an a negative epic impact and a small vitamin impact as you'll appreciate that now you see the full effect coming through of also stepping out of the the vitamin C business in space but overall taste texture and health is very resilient throughout the quarter and we actually see a continuation on what we saw in in the second quarter in in this business Then turning on the next page to health, nutrition and care. Here we had a weak core and it's a bit of a combination with a few things coming together. We see a continued impact from vitamins on the back of low demand in dietary supplements, especially in the US. That coupled with weak volumes in early life nutrition. We see continued declining birth rate. I think it's at a record low level today. And that coupled with some destocking effects in the quarter has caused relatively low volumes in the quarter. Obviously that has a flow through in the bottom line and there you see the vitamin impact and that has increased versus prior quarter because we're also adjusting our volumes produced to meet the demand and the destocking environment. And in our quest to optimize cash, we are adjusting that down and that obviously has caused a slightly bigger impact in the quarter. Now, overall, we do also see positive developments in health, nutrition and care. As you might have noticed, we're very pleased with the approval of two of our HMO solutions in China. That puts us in a very good leading position in that space. Let me remind you that overall 40-50% of the early life nutrition, the high value segment is coming from China. So we're actually pleased that we got the approval as one of the first into that market. Then last, turning to animal nutrition and health, there we basically don't see any trading conditions change versus the previous quarter in Q2. The micro continues to heavily impact these numbers with a sizable vitamin impact. Also in animal nutrition, we're adjusting our production volumes. We're optimizing and we want to bring our inventories down. We see continued destocking and with that we've adjusted production plans. We already announced that, but we're also extending the shutdowns in further places in this business. It's a bit of a shame that this vitamin impact overshadows the strong performance in our performance solutions business. It represents about 25% of the animal nutrition portfolio. And actually throughout the year, that's consistently growing at a high single digit pace, which is supported by a rich innovation pipeline. So we see positive developments on that front as well. At the bottom, you see the fall through in EBITDA. Sizable vitamin impact of about 120 million in the quarter. That's taking out the profitability of animal nutrition. But I do want to stress the organic increase in EBITDA as well, which is solely driven by a performance solutions portfolio. And there we're actually very pleased with that performance. As announced at the half year, we are addressing the vitamin impact. We've launched a series of measures. We are well on the way with that program, and we should see the first contributions to that in the fourth quarter of this year. Overall, FX had a negative impact in this business as well, but we are addressing the vitamin impact, and we'll see an improvement there. Now, what does that all translate to? And maybe then if we go to the next page, So for the remainder of the year, we don't anticipate a real change in trading conditions. We previously guided for an FX impact of about 100 million. We actually see that slightly more positive on the back of recent developments in the exchange rate. So we're forecasting now around 90 million for the year. The vitamin impact in the year increased from 400 to 500 million. It's on the back of right-sizing our production volumes. We see an increase in idle cost and undercoverage cost, and that is the main driver on why the vitamin impact moved from 400 to 500 million, coupled with a bit of volume and pricing impact, as in our previous outlook, we anticipated a bit of improvement in the second half, and that is what we currently don't see. Overall, we see an organic performance in our other businesses, and that takes the outlook for the year to around 1800 million of EBITDA for the full year 2023. Now to guide you further on the next page, we also translated this outlook into an earnings per share outlook. I think it was a question of many of you. And given that we're obviously a new company, we want to provide a further guidance on a couple of other line items. down to earnings per share. We expect the earnings per share to be around €1.90 per share in 2023. You'll appreciate that there are quite a few moving pieces, so there could be some small deviations on these line items, but I think you'll find that helpful in sizing that right. If you compare to the prior year where we did the pro forma, then the impact is predominantly driven by the vitamins again. then turning to the next page talking about our cash performance we provided you with a net debt bridge at the half year but i first want to talk a bit about cash flow we talked about that we see a turnaround in our cash performance overall a 56 cash conversion within the quarter and we're doing a few things we're prioritizing our inventory reductions versus the peak towards the end of Q1. We see inventories coming down by 200 million. not yet where we want to be we'll continue to be very disciplined around our inventories going forward but you'll appreciate that in an environment of these talking it it will take a bit of time to work our way through that but asset will will prioritize and will be disciplined in in our actions to bring that down Also at the Capex side, we're prudent in our spend and we've done a bit of reprioritization in order to improve our cash generation within the year and we'll continue to focus on that going forward. overall our net debt is estimated to be around 3.1 billion at the end of the year let me remind you there's two things in there one is the buyout of the minority shareholders it's a merger related element that we're committed to we don't know the exact timing but that might actually slip into next year and there's also a small placeholder for some m&a where we're bound to to buy out a minority stake that might also slip into 2024. So actual reported figure at the end of the year will probably come in a little lower around the 2.5 or 2.3, depending on that placeholder for M&A. But when we look at that, we obviously take these elements into account. So happy to report that there is a turnaround in that cash performance. We will continue to focus on that going forward as a priority. also important to talk a bit about the programs but dimitri maybe you take us through that

Yes, indeed, Ralph, and I hope you all appreciate the clarification and transparency we are giving, something which Ralph and myself find very important. Some background on indeed the programs, on the macro elements. First of all, I think the focus on cash, I think Ralph alluded to that, a step up. We'll continue doing so in Q4, and depending on how the macro develops in 2024, we will be very prudent in terms of inventory. Then the two programs which we have indicated, which will deliver in total about 200 million for vitamin transformation and about 175 cost synergies in terms of integration. Let me put some clarification on the vitamin transformation program. The vitamin transformation program has three main blocks. One is creating a separate vitamin unit under the animal nutrition and health part, where we also change our business model and our response to market. We have installed a vitamin transformation program director, Eros Carletti, reporting directly to me to show that it is directly helping the overall group. And we have established that the vitamin unit is being established as we speak towards the end of the year, beginning of next year. Then the capacity-related box, which is the second one. We've announced the Xinguo and Yangshan rationalizations. Xinguo, the vitamin B6 line has been stopped. That plant has been stopped. We've initiated that and we are executing that as we speak. And the vitamin C plant in Yangshan in China has come to a chemical stop. It has a standstill and we're looking at options to valorize that. But it has been executed. It has been communicated and we follow through. We've also had in July and August extended shutdowns for vitamin A and E in Sicily. We're currently also reviewing whether we should have an extended shutdown in December, depending on how things are developing yet again to prepare ourselves for the future and also keep the cash in mind. The programs with headcount reductions has been communicated. We'll do that in a phased approach and has been executed accordingly. The third part has to do with a simpler, more responsive go to market market model. Customers are at the current environment not willing to pay for security supply. We modify ourselves so we will have a more efficient and agile organization with headcount reduction. And we've also started communicating about that and executing on that. This will result in A better cash, you've seen that in Q3, that will also continue in Q4, but also included idle costs because we are ramping down capacity as well as stocks. And that has been part of the Q3 and the Q4 numbers. Gas conversion went up and we expect the first savings from the vitamin transformation, although we only launched it towards the end of Q2, already in Q4. And the integration part on the cost synergies plus the vitamin will already deliver about 20 to 30 million in Q4 and about 100 million on vitamin transformation in 2024. Then move to the next slide in terms of a bit of background on the synergies. Remember, we had the synergies part split in two, 350 million of which 175 million EBITDA around 500 million top line in terms of revenue synergy. with a brief machine where it takes a bit longer before that is materializing. I'm very happy to say that I've been to many of our top customers, top to top meetings where all our customers really are interested in what we have to offer. We are filling the pipelines of our brief machine. And you know that building a brief sometimes takes a year, one and a half year. But I'm very optimistic on what I see, how the pipeline is filling with the key account discussions we have. We also see some cross-selling. Some quick wins. We had a fantastic win at the energy drinks with Tiger as a company where we combine taste and health ingredients. And we have a few more to go. But those are the cross-selling ingredients. Obviously, we are in the game to build new concepts together with our customers. Then the cost part, 175 million. Very happy to say that we are tracking according to plan. Remember, the cost synergies have three components. One was the SG&A, so the global support. We're executing on that. We have launched and announced and communicated the new organization with the effects in terms of headcount reduction. We're executing on that part. The second part is indirect costs, has to do with mobile provider costs, facilities, real estate and the like. Also here, we have just recently announced that in the US, we will close our Persephone office and we'll use the Plainbury office as our hub in New York, New Jersey area. which create indirect savings as an example. And on the direct raw material sourcing, I'm very happy to say that we had our key supplier meeting in June, our 150 suppliers, and we are following through on all the programs and commitments we have seen. This will deliver in 2024 around 100 million for the integration cost integration synergies. And you will also see some effect already in Q4 integration plus the vitamin transformation will deliver around 20 to 30 million in Q4. Now let's move to the next slide just to get you a bit of a feel on what these cross-selling and new joint concepts are. Not going through it. I think it's in the pack. But fantastic. A new joint concept is the granola recovery snack. I've tasted it myself. It's fantastic. It is bringing sustainable component via the plant-based ingredient together with an essential component the the fibers the proteins the vitamins and the minerals coupled with a desirability because the taste is really fantastic normally you have a bit of a muffy taste but with the combination it is really really tasteful and i can tell you i've tasted it myself so these are concepts which we do discuss with our customers and there is a huge huge interest in working together Then a bit of background on the business units. Maybe if we go to the next slide, Ralph alluded a little bit on Q3 and year-to-date Q3. Let me help you a little bit on where we are preparing ourselves for the future. So perfumery and beauty performed very well, and we continue to focus on bringing a very healthy innovation pipeline and using this fantastic palette of ingredients coupled with an enormous capability in creating So adding ingredients to the fragrance palette makes ourselves and the brief machine stronger to help our customers to win. Taste and texture. And health, here we focus on the revenue synergies. The big chunk of the revenue synergies has to come from taste, texture, and health. And I just alluded to with some examples there. And we'll also bring and combine the ingredients to the flavor palette. Also here, a very unique business model where we strongly believe in taste, texture, and health. Then on health, nutrition, and care, as well as animal nutrition and health, We've launched the vitamin transformation program. In those two units, that vitamin transformation program will bring savings. In addition, on health, nutrition, and care, we are really accelerating the HMOs developments, certainly after the approvals in China. And for animal nutrition and health, Ralph was alluded to it, don't forget there's about 25% of the business, which is a high margin and also high growth, which is doing, in the current environment, a fantastic job. And these all banked and backed up by a very strong science, research and innovation commitment. In this current environment, we will continue to invest on science, research and innovation to prepare ourselves for the future. We spent more than 700 million euro a year in science, research and innovation. We will continue to do so to bring the company into a better place for the future. Having said that, wrapping up, if you go to the next slide, Coming back to what I said when I started, the macro is pretty tough, but we are taking action. We're not banking on the normalization. Normalization will come, absolutely, but we're not banking on it. We take actions. We fully deliver, and you can count on us to deliver the savings, the cost savings on the integration, the cost savings on the vitamins transformation, and continue to focus on the cash. And three, as you expect from us, we are open to review our segments. We have four business units, but in fact, we have 30 underlying business segments. We are reviewing that as we speak, looking at where is high growth, where is high margin, where there is innovation. And we will readdress and reprioritize where we spent the money. on resources, on innovation, on science and research, and possibly on M&A. And if we do that with a normalized macro, with the actions we take on micro, with a stronger portfolio, we are building something great for the future. And we bring progress to life by combining the essentials, the desirable, and the sustainable together. And what does that mean financially? My last slide. In terms of the bridge, in terms of where we are today, in terms of the quality of our portfolio, nicely linked to the macro and the micro and the portfolio review. You see a macro normalizing will have to bring about 2%. the vitamin about 2%, the cost synergies about 2%, with a strengthening of the portfolio between 2% to 3%. And that brings us back into our mid-term positioning of the company we are building, DSM Finish. And with that, Dave, back to you.

Yeah, thank you. We took some time. We also did that on purpose. We are not strictly bound to, let's say, the 10 o'clock call. And we also, I remember people that the cell site also has the opportunities to ask us further questions at the teach-in next week in Geneva. So I mentioned at the beginning that we changed the setup and that basically everything is now running through the open exchange setup. And that also means that for the cell set analysts who want to ask questions, they basically have to register via the questioners link. There are two links. I mentioned at the beginning, you basically have to go through that one. And if you have not done so, you can still do that. And with that, I hand over to the operator and launch the Q&A session.

Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin our Q&A session. If you have a question, we ask that you please use the raise hand function at the bottom of your Zoom screen. Once your name has been announced, you can ask a question. If you want to withdraw your question, please lower your hand using the raise hand function in the Zoom app. Our first question comes from Sebastian Bray at Barenburg. Please unmute your line and ask your question.

Hello, good morning, and thank you for taking my question. It's on the vitamins assets in particular, and it's twofold. Firstly, if I take the guidance of a 500 million EBITDA headwind year on year for this business, given that I think there was publicly available data suggesting it's made around 400 million previously, am I right in saying that negative 100 million is the right EBITDA for this business? And the reason I ask it is if I go back to the Roche account's from 2000 or so before DSM acquired this business. Roche was regularly spending about 200 to 50 million capex, seemingly on a recurring basis on the vitamin assets. I'm trying to understand, number one, what level of vitamin EBITDA is required to cover the capex in this business? And number two, just allowing for the cost savings that DSM is planning, leaving aside any improvement in the end market. is this asset likely to hit cash flow breakeven? Thank you.

Yes, Sebastian, thanks for that question. And indeed the right question. So let me not go back to the Roche times because they operated vitamins slightly different than what we've done also in terms of cash and capex as well as resources. But I think the 500 million is 500 million indeed. Let me put some color on that. So first of all, our vitamin transformation program needs to bring about 200 million of part of that recovery. And that's in our own hands and we'll do accordingly. That means there's 300 million left, which is a bit linked to recovery of macro pricing. But let's also sub-segment a little bit the vitamin effect. So we have a pricing effect. which you've seen is at low prices. The only good news on vitamin prices today is that it's stable at low prices already in Q3. And that has an effect on that at least our customers are not destocking longer because they expect that maybe next quarter prices will be lower. But that's the only good news on the vitamin prices as we speak. And we do think that we are at a trough as we speak. Then the second element on vitamins has to do with volumes. And we've deliberately decided to walk away from some of the volumes where we're not making any money. That's a deliberate choice. Also to focus on the cash. That volume is a deliberate choice. And we also taking actions. We have closed our B6 plant in China as well as vitamin C and will do extended shutdown. And then the third element Ralph alluded to are the idle costs, because we are also organizing, reorganizing our inventory because our customers are no longer willing to pay for any of the security supply. You will see that we will have some idle costs ongoing. So overall, $500 million, $200 million is in vitamin transformation, $300 million is in normalizing, but part also has to do with idle cost. In terms of CapEx to your cash flow part, I think it's clear that in the current environment that we are minimizing CapEx. And you can also do that because at the end of the day, if your OTIF doesn't need to be that high, so OTIF meaning on time, in full delivery to your customers, you have a bit more flexibility to play also with your CapEx and the resources you spend. So that has a background, but it's a clear assumption that in today's world, nobody is making money on vitamins. And I would even say it is even negative to a certain extent.

Thank you.

Our next question is from Lisa Deneuve at Morgan Stanley. Please unmute your line and ask your question.

Hi. Can you hear me? Sorry, just checking before I start speaking. Yeah, okay, great. Thank you so much. So the first question I have is just on destocking. I mean, you mentioned it's fading in some categories, including in perfumery and beauty. Can you just share if you've seen any sort of helpful trends in your other three segments and more broadly shed a light on what you're seeing in your order books and customer patterns across the four business segments? Yeah. The other question I have is sort of on your broader asset base. I mean, you're stating that you're reviewing all the four or 30 underlying subsegments. I mean, does that mean that you're considering all internal opportunities and actions? Or does it also mean that you would consider potential divestment of some segments if you were not to be the best owner of it? And how should we think about your financial framework or the financial terms that you're considering to make that right decision in terms of returns and so forth?

Thank you. Yeah, indeed. Let me take those two questions. A bit of destocking, indeed. We see destocking still continuing throughout our businesses. And I've highlighted two where we see perhaps a little bit fading. Consumer fragrances, we definitely see that. We see customers are really interested to innovate. and reformulate again with the fragrances included. So we see definitely that destocking has faded away in that area. Dietary supplements, based on retail data and user data in the US, we see some stabilization. So that's the first sign of destocking fading away. So it's not there yet, but looking at the data, We are slightly more positive. But for the rest, I have to say that this stocking is still ongoing. Let me give you some color on the four businesses. So first of all, Perfumer in Beauty. The fragrances part is doing relatively well, with personal care still strong. The ingredients part is continued destocking, certainly in the industrial parts of the ingredients, that destocking is ongoing. Taste, texture and health, we do see destocking, although taste, enzyme culture, textures are doing well. It's predominantly in the vitamins and yeast extracts where we see that destocking happening. And HNC, I think Ralph already alluded to it, certainly dietary supplements are just explained for Q3, but we see a little bit stabilization of the end-use data. Early life nutrition obviously is low in demand as well as de-stocking continued. Be aware that also prior year, quarter three was an extremely high quarter with double digit sales. But nevertheless, that's what we see on early life. And animal nutrition, yeah, de-stocking predominantly across the businesses, but with a very good performance on performance solutions because they bring something unique to the table. Then to your second question, the underlying segments. Indeed, we are reviewing about 30 business segments. We review that from a... a growth perspective, from a margin perspective, from an innovation and sustainability perspective, innovation headroom going forward. But we also look at the cash flow return on investment, or at least how capital intense is it. So whether you would spend the money in terms of capital expenditure, as well as innovation and research. So we do that in reprioritization. We don't do the analysis to see whether we do divestment yes or no. We like the portfolio we have. But as you are used to us, we are very open-minded and transparent. But we're in the midst of that review. So we'll bring that back to you in the Capital Markets Day next year. We'll be very transparent on it. But return on capital is an important metric next to innovation headroom and growth as key elements for where we're going to reprioritize what we spent our money.

Our next question is from Matthew Yates at Bank of America. Please press star six to unmute your line and ask your question.

Hey, everybody. Can you hear me okay? Yep, absolutely. Yep. Yep. Hey, man. Perhaps let's give Ralph a go. Ralph, can you talk me through the year-end net debt guidance? There's obviously a lot of moving parts on that slide 17. What I'm trying to understand is relative to what was guided at the end of Q2, What's really changed? Because it looks like, if I'm right, that you're expecting debt to now be a few hundred million less than you were thinking a few months ago. Is that a timing issue or is it reflective of the underlying cash generation of the business? And then related to that, forgive me, I haven't seen a balance sheet. So can you give us a sense where inventories are now sitting? I think it was 3.8 billion euros. at the end of Q2. With all the steps that you've taken, where are we now, either in an absolute number or relative to what you would consider normal? Thank you.

Good morning and thank you for the question. You're right. There are a few moving pieces. Let me first start with the net debt bridge. It is indeed improving from what we communicated at the half. You heard us talk on the one side about taking further measures. On the one hand, we're already taking measures earlier, but obviously before inventory developments actually take through, you right-size your production asset and what I said earlier as well in a destocking environment. It does take a bit of time. We're happy to see those first improvements. On the one hand, you see an improvement in operating cash flow. And we are now guiding to a slightly higher figure, despite the fact that our guidance is now towards the low end of what we communicated before. So that is an improvement. At the same time, you see some of the APMs, and that is more of a shift going into next year. So previously we were guiding around 400 million. We currently see that more at a 200 million level. Maybe one step back on the APMs. We communicated that the half, we have about 750 million in total, split over 300 million transaction related, of which the biggest part is behind us. And then obviously we guided for about 200 million for the vitamin improvement program and about 250 million of synergies. Those obviously still need to come. When you take the bigger picture, about half of those costs will be behind us in 2023 and also from a cash point of view. But there has been some shift towards 2024 because obviously we're trying to face that as much as we can as well. And that combination with some discipline around some of the corporate finance activities in our prioritization of cash we're a bit more prudent in spending some of our ventures and the like that is overall causing an improvement in our guidance on on net debt Then to your question around the balance sheet, you're right. You've got the numbers in your head. We were rounded at a 3.8 billion level at the half year, and there we see an improvement. So although we don't publish the balance sheet on a quarterly basis, the number is now a little over 3.5 billion. So that is a good improvement. Now, in all fairness, there's a few elements. One, cash. That is something that we prioritize. And with the stops that we initiated in the third quarter and our discipline around bringing the inventory levels down, you see about a $200 million improvement from that. At the same time, there is also some accounting entries on the back of the merger accounting of about $100 million. That is causing the gap. But you have to also keep in mind that the exchange rates are actually moving in the opposite direction. So if you were to compare on a like for like at the half year, you would first see an increase in the balance on the back of AVIX, which is about 50 million. But then you see our inventory reductions causing it to be lower. And then there's about 100 million accounting impact, which is now resolved as well. So that takes it down to 3.5 billion. Looking a bit ahead, we went around that, and we will see that number come down further.

Operator, yeah.

Our next question is from Martin Roediger from Kepler Chevro. Please unmute yourself and ask your question.

Thank you. Good morning. I have three quick questions. I saw that your campus guidance for this year is lower than previously, so now 750 million, but in the past you mentioned a mid-term target of 6.5% capex to sales ratio. Is that still valid? That's the first question. Second, your dividend policy, you intend to pay out the dividend not purely from retained earnings, but 50% or more from capital contribution reserves. Is that healthy? And thirdly, Regarding perfumery and beauty, you mentioned the exceptional positive product mix. Was it just due to high exposure to the high margin of prime fragrance business or was there anything else? Thank you.

Thanks, Martin, for that question. Let me take the last one and then ask Ralf to comment on CapEx and Dividend. Perfume Marine Beauty was an exceptional product mix. Two reasons. One, I think fragrances were doing very well, whereby ingredients were doing a bit less. So it was the two effects in one. So it was not only the fragrances which were doing well, it was also the ingredients. which we're still having a bit of an effect on the destocking and the like, certainly on the industrial part of the environment. So that defines the high EBITDA quality for perfumery and duty in Q3. Rolf, for CARPEX and dividend?

Yeah, thank you, Dimitri. So correct. So our guidance for CapEx is indeed 750 million. So that is an improvement in the year. Again, we're reprioritizing some of the investments in the current context. And the guidance of 6.5% is about right. I will be a bit more precise when we get to 2024 and provide you with guidance on that. But I think it's a good metric. Keep in mind that next year there is an elevated level in that number as well, given that we will be moving forward fast on the plant that is delivering the Beauvais product and the majority of that spend will actually be happening in 2024. But as an overall guidance, it's a good starting point.

Can I add one thing to it? Be aware that we will not reduce in CapEx, which is linked to future growth and building our company for the future. This has to do with these segments. So a bit linked to the 30 segments, which we're reviewing in terms of our portfolio review. These are the segments where there is a lower growth, lower margin perspective. Certainly the vitamins are being part of that, but there are other segments where we also look at. So it's an important distinction to where we really push for lower CapEx.

Well, absolutely. Thanks for that. That addition. Absolutely. Then with respect to the dividend, a good question. We expect to be able to pay a stable dividend over 2023. You're right. If you would purely look at our financial matrix, a different policy is to distribute about 40 to 60% of our net net earnings that is adjusted earnings. I think 2023 is also a bridging year that we're building the company for the future. And with that, we're not only looking at the financial matrix, but I think a stable, probably rising dividend to our shareholders is important as well. And I think to your specific question around, should we pay part of out of capital reserves and part of the cash? I think that is more mechanical. I think when you look at it overall, I think a stable dividend given also our balance sheet is affordable in the current context.

Thank you.

Our next question is from Charles Eden at UBS. Please unmute yourself and ask your question.

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. One quick clarification one just to start with, please. When looking at the sort of 1800 performing EBITDA for the year, that's around 460 million in Q4. Can I just clarify, you mentioned 20 to 30 million contributed from vitamins in the fourth quarter. So another 20 to 30 million of, I guess, underlying improvement. That's the clarification. And then two other quick questions. Of the 200 million savings and synergies contributions you're expecting to come through in 24, How much of these do you expect to drop through to the bottom line? And how much do you intend to reinvest in the business, if any? And then a final one, sorry for sneaking a third in. But we've seen very mixed trends and commentary through Q3 with respect to the fine fragrance market. Obviously, you saw a very strong contribution in Q3. Can I just get your thoughts on how you're feeling about the development of this business in the coming quarters, please?

Thank you. Okay. Ralph, you do the 1800 in the Q4?

Yeah, absolutely. So we're guiding for about 1800. And when you do the math, indeed, where we are at a year today, that's around 450, 460 for the fourth quarter. Indeed, we do expect the contribution of those programs of 20 to 30 million. But obviously there's a lot of moving parts in that we'll have a few pockets of growth and segments where we see a step up in the third quarter. But we'll also be supported a bit by some input cost leveling off that should contribute to our performance in the fourth quarter. And we will remain very disciplined around our costs in the fourth quarter as well. And that should all take us to around 1800 million of EBITDA for the year. Then to the questions around the programs. It's a little early to really look forward into 2024. There's many moving parts, I think, where the macro is the big unknown. But Dimitri and myself are very committed to delivering upon the programs. I think it was said at the intro, but I think it's important to repeat. We expect about 100 million contribution from the vitamin program into 2024, and about 100 million coming from the Synergy program into 2024. That's what we're committed to, and that's what we're focused on delivering. And maybe with that, Dimitri, the fine fragrance question.

Before I go to fine and consumer, maybe add a little bit on the programs, indeed, building on what Ralph was saying. This will be predominantly all going to bottom line. This is a cost-related actions program. We'll see some here and there, but predominantly this will be bottom line impact. Then on the Q4 building, Rob was saying, remember that we have a few elements where we can bank on, which is the vitamin and integration, which would live at 20 to 30 million. We obviously also see some effect on input costs, but we're also very strict on costs as a company as a whole, which will deliver in Q4 some momentum. Also be aware that with the cash delivery, we definitely will look at the idle costs, right? So we'll focus on cash. So it's a bit of a, a balancing act in that sense. And we have prioritized cash for that extent. And be aware that destocking towards the end of the year, even in a non-destocking environment, is always a bit difficult to judge exactly how end of the year will look like, certainly in the area where destocking is ongoing for quite a while. So I've indicated consumer fragrances is looking good. It's fading away. Dietary supplements, we see some end use data. So we need to see. But end year, normally people are looking at their working capital towards the end of the year. So we need to see. And in that sense, we say around 1800 is something you can you can bank on. Then fine fragrances. Let me just respond on fine fragrances. It has been very good. It has been a fantastic business where there's a unique business model where we work with ingredients into a brief machine, a palette with a brief machine to help our customers to come with creative solutions to itself that has already delivered growth years and years. We don't see a change in that. You always have. Some elements which are impacting that, we were in a very good position and we expect that to continue, obviously with some ups and downs, but they are relatively small. They are not comparable with ups and downs, which you would expect in other businesses. Consumer fragrance, like we said, we see the stocking fading away and customers are really looking for innovations in inclusions of new fragrances and reformulations going forward.

Our next question is from Isha Sharma at Stifo. Please unmute yourself and ask your question.

Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking my question. I have two left, please. If we look at the health, nutrition and care segment, you've talked about volumes being lower because of low demand in early life nutrition, as well as dietary supplements. On the other hand, we have now the HMO approval in China. So what are the drivers for this segment and how should we think about this segment building up again to what we have seen in the past, if that is how you are guiding for the segment? And the other question would be on the EBITDA bridge. So if we think about Q4, you have 20, 30 million savings of vitamin. If I take them out and I just take 430 million, going into 2024, what needs to change for this run rate to improve outside of the savings that you have called out of 100 million from cost savings and 100 million from the synergy? Thank you.

Good. All right. I thought the last question I'd just answered, but we'll ask Rolf to see if we are aligned on the answer. So keep that for Rolf. HNC, I think, thanks for that question. So remember hmc has a has a few segments other than dietary supplements and their life nutrition although dietary supplements early after nutrition are about half of of the health nutrition and care unit we also have eye health which is performing very well we have pharma medical of which certainly medical nutrition is doing doing very well and we have biomedical which is doing very well so um dietary supplements and inner life nutrition currently are impacting the results because they are weak, destocking and demand. What we do see is that dietary supplement, the end user data is stabilizing. So we will see that people are looking at their health. Immunity is an important area, certainly towards the area where in the US we go into the winter period. We also see that being correlated with the sales of eye health. But let's see. We're not there yet. We don't see it yet in Q3, but we are slightly more optimistic for the future. Early life nutrition is a segment where we have seen decline in birth rates. But we also have seen that because of that, our customers are really looking for premiumization. So they're looking for premium ingredient to make a difference. um and hmo is a fantastic ingredient to do that so we're extremely happy with that approval and this is not just the agricultural approval this is the approval to use it in infant nutrition i think some of our our peers have have communicated they're very happy with with the approvals but you need to look at the infant nutrition approval so that you can start working with your customers to develop infant nutrition solutions. We are in the midst of that after that approval. Obviously, we were prepared to jump in. So that premiumization is ongoing for China, which is about 40%. of the early life nutrition market that is important so we do see that that premiumization is there and we do need that um to be affected to go back to early life nutrition growth rates remember we are not in infant nutrition itself we are supplying ingredients to infant nutrition so where that happens uh for us is is is is imbalance whether it's chinese whether it's the multinationals and that is something where we're going to work on that's also one of the areas i've highlighted as one of the growth areas for for agency going forward so we need that early life nutrition with pre-immunization um materializing after destocking has come to an end and remember also i said it initially prior year q3 was a double digit growth so we need to see that in that perspective and dietary supplements need to go through the destocking and then normalized going forward. And that will bring HNC together with iHealth, Pharma Medical and Biomedical back to where they were before, helped by cost savings on the vitamins part. And therefore, the vitamins transformation project is also key for HNC.

Alright, then let me come back to your question around the quarter and step up. And I think it's very much linked to the story that Dimitri just told. Next to the programs that has a priority for us and that we're working on, because that is what we control, A step up in the run rate depends heavily also on the market. So overall, destocking will come to an end at some point. Vitamin markets will bounce back. China will be in a better place. But obviously, these factors are a bit more difficult to predict, but they will definitely contribute at some point towards a step up. For the time being, we focus on what we have in our control. and the programs uh you you back them out i think when when we say there will be 100 million flow through from the vitamins and from the synergies to the bottom line that is a sizable step up in that we that we are working on and that will will come the rest will be dependent and we'll all get a bit smarter when we get closer to 24 and going into 24 with respect to our run rates with us

Yes.

Our last question is from Alex at Barclays. Please unmute yourself and ask your question.

Yeah, thanks for that. I've got two questions, please. Actually, firstly, on coming back to the HMO approval in China, I noted that as well as yourselves, Meng Yu, I think, received approval to FL. So I was wondering, how do you see the competitive landscape in HMOs evolving in China? Should it look like the kind of global market where Glycom is the market leader and three to four firms dominate? Or would you expect more in the way of local competition in China? And then just secondly, in terms of the midterm margin slide, you refer there to some one of the drivers being normalization in macro, including restocking I wondered where do you think the aggregate customer inventory levels of your products sit today versus history in the context of this comment are we back to pre-pandemic levels or are we actually below those levels thanks yeah I like thanks for that question HMO yeah um very very a bit a bit of color there remember that HMOs is not HMOs you have a

Plentitude of ingredients. Two of L is the starting HMO. I think relatively easy to do. We got approval for that. But remember, we also got the approval for the second, which already is an innovation of the two of L's. And we're the only one who got that approval already in China. and we have another four to five uh approval requests running so this is an innovation game it is premiumization specialization game um this will not be two of l which is maybe the working horse to to get in uh we feel that there are only a few players who could do that innovation game because it's basically research incentive you need to understand that business secondly You also need to produce it. And remember, with the acquisition of Glycom, we're the only one who are backward integrated and having that facility to manufacturing HMOs. And many of us, of our peers, are rather tolling it or are still building it. So it's an absolute plus for us to have that capacity. Certainly, if you launch products in early life nutrition, You want to make sure as a customer that your supplier is not only innovative and science based in this area, but also has the capability and is not relied on others to supply you with the ingredients. So that's an important point in terms of success of HMO. The second part is. Who will be the winners in the game? We need to see today multinational companies are still usually important for the innovation and the premiumization of that segment. But obviously also the Chinese are stepping up the plate. And the beauty of where we are today is we sell ingredients and we work together with customers independent on where they are. If they are interested in our scientific based ingredients for the early life nutrition. So that is the HMO question. I think you had a second question on midterm targets.

Exactly whether the inventory levels are at or above basically.

Yeah, I think then I need to run you through the 30 segments. Looking at the time being five minutes past 10, I will try to simplify it. So overall, I think destocking is already ongoing for quite a while. I will not make any forecast on when destocking is fading away because by definition we'll be wrong. The only promise I can make is the moment that we'll see it, we will tell you. We've indicated consumer fragrances. We've indicated a bit of data for dietary supplements. For the rest, we don't see it as we speak. However, this is ongoing for quite a while. So based on that, this is not something which is just there for one quarter. In terms of vitamins in the animal nutrition space, It's clear that we are below any prior reference. We do see, we call that hand-to-mouth deliveries. And also our customers in the animal nutrition space feel very at ease to buy vitamins when they need it. So they have hardly any stock left, certainly into a cash environment where our farmers find it very difficult to make still margin. They're really cash-focused. That's also why they make a very... deliberate choice to go to maintenance diets, which is reduced vitamins content, but also reduce quite a bit on their stocks they have. So I could say for animal nutrition, we're definitely below any reference today. That is a bit of a call.

Yeah, we're running indeed a little bit late. You mentioned already, Dimitri. So let's do one other question. And then remember, there is another opportunity for the cell site analyst to ask further questions at the next week's event. So operator, let's go to the last question.

Our last question is from James Hooper at Bernstein. Please unmute yourself and ask your question.

Hi, thank you very much for squeezing me in at the end. I've got a couple of shorter ones and then one conceptual one. First shorter one, the kind of cadence of the vitamin and synergy improvements for next year, which we expect kind of Q1, Q2 to be more like Q4 and accelerate to the end or the relatively short straightforward 200 million delivery. The second shorter one is about the kind of lag coming through to input pricing, kind of about the raw material deflation coming across. As a kind of rough rule of thumb, what should we be thinking about in terms of monthly kind of monthly lag from kind of you buying a cheaper raw material and hitting the P&L? And then finally, just a comment on kind of GLP-1. Have you been seeing any impact of that in kind of, I'm thinking dietary supplements in North America or on the taste, texture and health more business? And it'd be great to get some color about what you guys have seen there so far.

Yep. James, thanks. I'm very happy that you feel happy if you're squeezed in. Normally people who are squeezed in don't feel happy. It's good that you're having a different perspective. But I hope to see you, by the way, next week. Vitamin Synergy. Yeah, let me not go through quarter per quarter. You will see there's some effect in Q4 and we set 100 million into next year. Let me not try to be precise per quarter, but obviously it's built up over the period. Then maybe, Ralph, you a little bit on input prices. What can we expect? By the way, that has been my question to Ralph already when he started. When do we see the input prices helping us?

We do see fair signs there, but I think your question was when we will actually see the flow through. We're currently sitting about a little over five months of inventory, so that is a bit what we have on hand. that's also a better period until this will take through keep in mind that up until mid-year we saw is still an inflationary environment around the input cost and we've seen the first results now that there is a bit of a lower value coming through albeit minor and there's always a bit of a balancing act that's on the one hand you see energy coming down but then obviously on the back of the recent conflict you see it go up a bit though It's still a bit fragile, as we say, but on average, it will take about five months for it to find its way into the P&L.

And then closing the loop on GLP-1, I think our overall takeaway is that if people start to think more about their health, that will help our business. I think the whole society at large today is trying to cure people who are ill. I think what we try to do is to go into more prevention and help people think about how they can prevent to become ill. By the way, financially, that makes far more sense for society at large as well. So any trend where people think about their health with lower sugar, lower fat, lower salt is absolutely helping our business. And that is our guideline and philosophy. Let's see how that works out. But I genuinely believe that this will be a positive trend. And with that, back to you, Dan.

Yeah, indeed, Dan. We're really at the end. Thank you all for joining today and for staying with us also a little bit longer. As usual, any questions, please reach out to the Investor Relations team. And then with that, I wish you a very nice day and give it back to the operator.

This concludes today's call. Thank you, everyone, for joining. You may disconnect now.