Daimler Truck Hldg Ag

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. This is Markus Poppe speaking. On behalf of Daimler Truck, I would like to welcome you on both telephone and the internet to our Q3 results global conference call. We are very happy to have with us today Eva Scherer, our CFO. Eva will begin with an introduction, directly followed by a Q&A session. The respective presentation can be found on the Daimler Truck IR website. On our request, this conference call will be recorded. The replay of the conference call will also be available as an on-demand audio webcast in the investor relations section of the Daimler Truck website. I would like to remind you that this teleconference is governed by the safe harbor wording we'll find on our published results documents. Please note, our presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect management's current views with respect to future events. Such statements are subject to many risks and uncertainties. If the assumptions underlying any of these statements prove incorrect, then actual results may be materially different from those expressed or implied by such statements. Forward-looking statements speak only to the date on which they are made. Now, I would like to hand over to Eva.

Thank you, Markus, and good morning, everyone. And thank you for joining our earnings call for the third quarter of 2025. As the results show, quarter three was shaped by a sharp downturn in North America and a slow-paced recovery across European markets. Industrial business revenue totaled 10.6 billion euros, driven by 98,000 units sold. Adjusted group EBIT totaled 716 million. Adjusted return on sales for the industrial business came in at 6.3%, with earnings per share at 57 cents. Free cash flow was 24 million, bringing our net industrial liquidity to 5.9 billion at quarter end. In a volatile global environment, we are focused on what we can control. Improving structural efficiency through disciplined cost management and targeted resource allocation to have the best value proposition to our customers. At our capital market day in July, we outlined our path to becoming a more resilient and profitable company, and we are executing on this. Product highlights in quarter three include the launch of the e-Actros 400 and the new Barrett-Benz HX series. The e-Actros 400 is part of a large electric truck portfolio extension based on the technology of our e-Actros 600 and further strengthens our market leadership in electric trucks. We call it the second generation of our e-Actros. It offers more than 40 possible combinations of the basic vehicle, depending on the application and requirements for range, payload and comfort. The new Bharat Benz HX series is tailored to meet specific needs in India's growing construction and mining segment even better, offering significant improvements in operational efficiency. Another highlight is our new cooperation with Accus, which aims to develop products and processes to better meet the needs of customers in the defense sector, with Mercedes-Benz providing the trusted Cetros and thereby contributing to the future modernization of the French Army's logistics truck fleet. Furthermore, we have signed an agreement with Autocar, which adds cost-effective manufacturing capacity to meet strong demand for the Mercedes-Benz Connecto city bus, further strengthening Daimler Bus' market position. Let me now turn to the developments in our key markets in the third quarter. In North America, the Class 8 market totaled 200,000 units for the first nine months, representing a 12% decline year over year. In the third quarter, the decline accelerated to minus 20% year over year. The drop reflects ongoing economic uncertainty and a weak US freight market. Our Class 8 market share held steady at 40% through September, confirming our leadership position. In Mexico, the heavy duty market declined 45% year over year. This was driven by the Euro 6 transition early in the year, compounded by economic weakness in quarter three. In Europe, the heavy-duty market declined 8% year-to-date, totaling 217,000 units. On the positive side, however, the third quarter saw 6% year-over-year recovery. Our European heavy-duty market share rose to 16.5% year-to-date and 19.1% in quarter three. This represents an increase from 16.2% in quarter two and 14.2% in quarter one. We have steadily improved our position, supported by strong demand for the Actros L. This confirms that our product investments are paying off. Let's take a closer look at unit sales and order intake in the third quarter. At group level, the book-to-bill ratio was 96%. Unit sales fell 15%. to 98,000 units, while incoming orders declined by less than 1% year-over-year to 93,900 units. At Truxx North America, unit sales dropped 39% and incoming orders 29%, reflecting the sharp contraction in the U.S. market. Considering tariff uncertainties, our effort to accelerate deliveries in Quarter 2 ahead of potential tariff changes amplified the sequential decline in unit sales. On a positive note, our current order backlog covers the 2025 unit sales guidance. At Mercedes-Benz Trucks, stronger order intake is now converting into higher unit sales, up 8% year over year in quarter three. Volumes rose compared to the third quarter, but were lower than planned due to continued ramp-up issues in our plant in Wörth, Germany, as well as a more muted market environment in India and Brazil. Despite tariff uncertainty and a slow-paced recovery in Europe, EU30 orders rose by 56% for Mercedes-Benz vehicles, with strong demand for our Actros L, leading to a book-to-bill ratio of 102% in Europe. Orders in Germany improved slightly by 5% for Mercedes-Benz vehicles. Latin America unit sales rose by 10%. A 6% decline in Brazil due to a weaker heavy duty market, high interest rates, inflation and political uncertainty was offset by stronger sales in Argentina and market share gains in the medium duty segment in Brazil. Order intake for Latin America increased by 6%. In India, unit sales rose slightly despite a market shift towards the 16 to 19 ton segment, where we have a lower presence and quarter four sales push out due to the VAT reduction, which became effective on September 22nd, 2025. Trucks Asia delivered around 26,000 units in the third quarter, an 8% decrease year over year. This decline was driven by weaker sales in Indonesia. Order intake rose 12% year over year, mainly attributable to growth in Japan and Indonesia. Daimler buses unit sales fell 4% year over year, mainly due to a weak Mexican market. Auto intake was down 12%, driven by softer demand from Brazil. Let's look at our SETI-V volumes. In the first nine months of 2025, we sold over 3,800 battery electric trucks and buses, up from 2,100 units in the same period last year. order intake for zero-emission vehicles remained flat at around 4,200 units. Our zero-emission vehicle data highlights that the transition to zero emissions depends not just on the right vehicles, but also on achieving cost parity with diesel and a robust charging infrastructure, areas where stronger government support is still needed. The transition has faced headwinds in both the US and Europe, Adoption in the US has slowed significantly and progress in Europe remains below expectations. On a positive note, our zero emission vehicle range continues to resonate with our customers, achieving a 56% share of the European heavy duty market in September and bringing our year to date market share to 33%, making us the market leader in electric trucks. Now let's have a look at our financial performance for the quarter. At group level, revenue declined 13% year-over-year to 11.5 billion euros, and adjusted EBIT fell 40% to 716 million. From a segment perspective, Mercedes-Benz Trucks and Financial Services contributed positively, while Daimler Buses and Trucks Asia saw modest year-over-year declines. Trucks North America profitability dropped over 60%, driving a 42% year-over-year decline in the industrial business EBIT to 668 million in quarter three. Trucks North America revenue declined 33% year-over-year to slightly below 4 billion euros, leading to an adjusted EBIT of 257 million and an adjusted return on sales of 6.4%. In addition to lower fixed cost absorption, the profitability was affected by higher R&D spending and expenses related to capacity adjustments. The tariff impact was in a double-digit million range in the third quarter. Pricing remained positive in quarter three. However, the product mix generated a headwind with fewer Cascadia and Western Star vocational trucks and a higher medium duty share with lower captive powertrain penetration. Following significant production adjustment, our dealer inventory was reduced by approximately 15% in the third quarter, in line with the overall industry decline. This normalized inventory will benefit us once the market rebounds. Mercedes-Benz Trucks revenue rose 3% year over year to almost 4.9 billion euros, with an adjusted return on sales of 6.5%, and adjusted EBIT of 319 million. While a significant improvement was anticipated in the third quarter, stronger than expected demand for the Actros Pro Cabin combined with ongoing supply chain constraints have continued to limit our production volumes. In EMEA, profitability improved on higher volumes, a favorable mix, and a release of previously accrued bonus provisions. partially offset by increased R&D spend and selective pricing measures. As expected, in a competitive European market, we remained focused on executing the cost reduction initiatives that we outlined at our Capital Market Day in July. In Latin America, business was impacted by a 7% market decline in Brazil. driven by a significant drop in the extra heavy on-road segment and a mixed shift towards medium duty vehicles with lower contribution margins. Volumes in India rose slightly year over year. Looking ahead, we expect demand to pick up following the implementation of a more favorable tax rate as many customers had delayed purchases in anticipation. Trucks Asia reported an adjusted EBIT of 67 million euros in quarter three. with an adjusted return on sales of 5.7% on revenues of almost 1.2 billion. The market environment in Asia remains challenging, with persistently low demand in key markets such as Japan and Indonesia. Despite weaker volumes, an unfavorable regional mix and FX headwinds, the segment delivered a solid performance by maintaining strong prices and exercising SG&A cost discipline. While we expect stronger new vehicle unit sales in the fourth quarter, TruX Asia's profitability will be impacted by increased headwinds from FX and significant seasonal increase in R&D expenditure. Daimler Buses delivered another strong quarter, reporting an adjusted EBIT of €137 million and revenues of over €1.4 billion, resulting in an adjusted return on sales of 9.8%. The segment maintains its market leadership across its core markets, including EU30, Brazil and Mexico. Adjusted EBIT was slightly lower year-over-year, as Q3 2024 included a €26 million gain from the measurement and sale of a non-core shareholding. Sorry, €26 million gain from the re-measurement and sale of a non-core shareholding. Q3 performance was supported by a favourable mix and strong net pricing. Adjusted EBIT for financial services rose year over year from 39 to 48 million euros. The improvement was resulting from stronger portfolio margins and lower SG&A. These gains more than offset FX headwinds and elevated cost of risk, which remained driven by the ongoing freight recession and macroeconomic uncertainty in North America. As a result, adjusted return on equity increased from 5.7 to 6.5% in the third quarter. Now let's look at our quarter three cash performance. Working capital had a negative impact of 121 million euros driven by higher inventories at Mercedes-Benz due to ramp up challenges in our German assembly plant, initial stocking at the new Halberstadt distribution center and the after effects on the North American production network following the fire at our Cleveland plant. Net investments in property, plant and equipment and intangible assets totaled €415 million. As a result, cash flow before interest and taxes for the industrial business was €202 million. After deducting €156 million in cash taxes plus interest, pension contributions and other items, free cash flow for the industrial business came in at €24 million. On an adjusted basis, free cash flow was 116 million. Net industrial liquidity was at 5.9 billion at quarter end, unchanged from quarter two. As in previous years, we expect cash generation to be concentrated in the fourth quarter. Let's turn to the key drivers for the remainder of 2025. Our guidance. for the two major regions remains unchanged. We continue to expect the North American heavy duty truck market to land between 250,000 and 280,000 units and the EU 30 market between 270,000 and 310,000 units. All segment level guidance KPIs for 2025 remain unchanged. Since November 1st, we've been operating under a new tariff environment. Some specifics remain unsolved and a full evaluation of the implications will require more time. For Truxx North America, we remain confident in our ability to mitigate the impact of additional tariff costs for 2025 and expect to land at the lower end of both the 2025 unit sales range of 135,000 to 155,000 units and the return on sales corridor of 10 to 12%. In the fourth quarter, we expect Trax North America unit sales roughly in line with third quarter levels, but profitability to be sequentially weaker due to an ongoing unfavorable mix, a fading pricing tailwind, increased tariff costs, and seasonally higher R&D and SG&A expenses. Full-year profitability. Mercedes-Benz Trucks is expected to land at the midpoint of the 5% to 7% guidance range. We expect Q4 unit sales for Mercedes-Benz Trucks to be approximately 20% higher than Q3, contingent on timely resolution of current supplier challenges. Q4 profitability is expected on Q3 level. Dax Asia profitability in quarter four is anticipated to be lower than in the third quarter due to further FX headwinds and seasonality in R&D expenditure, despite higher quarter over quarter unit sales. Daimler Buses is expected to deliver a significant sequential increase in unit sales in quarter four, with profitability slightly above quarter three levels. For financial services, we expect adjusted EBIT in the fourth quarter to be on a similar level as in the third quarter. We confirm our group and industrial business guidance. Given the heightened uncertainty stemming from the tariff situation in the US, we have not yet started our recently announced share buyback. We intend to start the buyback program once we have better visibility and we remain highly committed to a shareholder-friendly capital allocation policy. As you can see, Numerous dynamics are currently at play, many of which are externally driven. That's why we are focused on what lies within our control, enhancing efficiency and delivering value to our customers. Our results for the first nine months show that we are on the right track. That concludes our presentation. Thank you for participating. We're now happy to take your questions.

Thank you very much, Eva. Ladies and gentlemen, you may ask your questions now. The operator will identify the questioners by name, but please also introduce yourself and the organization you are representing. A few practical points. Please ask your questions in English, and as a matter of fairness, please limit the amount of questions to a maximum of two. Now, before we start, the operator will explain the procedure.

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and 1 on the touch-tone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and 2. If you are using a speaker equipment today, please lift the handsets before making your selection. Anyone who has a question may press star followed by 1 at this time. Please mute the sound of the internet stream while you are asking your question on the phone. One moment for the first question. The first question comes from Nikolai Kim from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Yeah, good morning. It's Nikolai from Deutsche Bank. Two questions and both related to North America. First one, you probably saw the Class 8 order intake for October and pointing into the right direction. And as you've stated, due to the production cut last month, inventories are coming down. So do we see a bottoming out of this market? And the second one is on tariffs, and I will refrain from asking for a specific number, but just high-level thinking here. Are you considering to adjust your final assembly given the tariffs, so moving more assembly to the U.S.? Thank you.

Hi Nicolai, thank you for your question. Two very valid ones. So let me take the first one. So order intake and maybe let me start also a bit with how the Q3 orders developed over the month in the quarter. So July, August were on a fairly similar level, but then September was quite a bit better than that. And October was then also a bit better. than september sequentially so we do see a positive trend continuing i mean i have to say it's in a very low market environment that we're operating right now but we do see that it's slowly picking up and i also did say during my speech that that obviously also leads to the fact that our inventories are coming down because we have adjusted our production program now throughout the last couple months. So we do see that in dealer inventories, what we see is, I said, 15%. That's how it came down over the course of the quarter. Within that, we see that there was about a 20% reduction on the highway side and then 15% roughly on the vocational side. So on the on-highway side, we actually see even a higher reduction in dealer inventories and that's now a fairly normalized situation. So we're getting out of these high levels and on the vocational side, it's also pretty normal that it takes a bit longer to reduce further because we obviously are relying there on bodybuilder capacity, which has gotten better, but there's still a small congestion that we see there. And also our own vehicle stock has decreased as a result of the reduction of our production program where we now are in a normalized environment. And we are from a production program because of the order development in quarter three now fully booked with our planned production program for quarter four and we are now filling quarter one which is obviously not filled yet and we have some work to do there. Now let's come to your second question. The tariff implication and of course we're talking here about the implication of 232 that has been implemented as of November 1st. We have said before that we have a fairly high level of flexibility among our assembly plans in the US and in Mexico but I cannot tell you at this point whether we will be making any adjustments and if how we would make them because as I also said during my presentation we need to understand the details of the new tariff scheme a bit better. So what we obviously know is that we're paying the 25% now as of November 1st for the assembled trucks when we bring them across the border from Mexico into the US, and we only pay for the value of the assembled truck minus the US content. So that is the situation right now. But then there are obviously a lot of details within that when it comes to deductions and credits. So when it comes, for example, to a 3.75% credit on the selling price of trucks assembled in the U.S. And there are a couple of questions we are still having. So we are obviously in close discussions with the U.S. administration in order to understand that better and also to of course discuss mitigation measures and as part of mitigation measures we will always look at how we utilize our flexible production network and of course we also look for further efficiencies on our side and how we can deal with that situation but it's really a bit early to tell because it's going to take us some more time to understand how it all comes together and what the final implication will be. We have worked for quarter four now with an assumption of what we believe the impact will be. And as I said during my presentation, we are confident that we will be able to compensate the quarter four impact within our guidance.

That's good. Thank you. All the best.

The next question comes from Claes Bergerlin from Citi. Please go ahead.

Thank you. Hi, Eva. Claes at Citi. So just coming back on the tariff comment, that you expect to be able to offset the effect with countermeasures during the outlook period. But obviously, the implied margin for trucks in North America into the fourth quarter is now around low single digits. So effectively, are you saying that within the guidance, Because obviously in absolute terms, your tariff impact from November and December must be sort of 5-6% on my math. Why don't you understand that better, Eva? I will start here.

Claes, thanks for the question. We're having a bit of a bad connection. The last part I didn't quite understand, the in absolute terms part about the tariff impact, what was that?

Yeah, so what I meant is, I hope this works now. So what I meant is to get to a low single-digit margin for Tracks North America implied by your low end at 10%. So low single-digit for the fourth quarter margin. That would imply that you have a quite big tariff impact that you can't compensate for. I hope you can hear me.

Yes. So, I mean, of course, in the quarter four period, guidance, the tariff impact is implied. And we have now, and we talked about this, I think in previous quarters, we have a tariff surcharge that we're currently using. We do not intend to increase this in the course of quarter four. So that means the impact from the third charge is as per our previous planning for quarter four but now we have higher tariff costs coming in so of course the net impact is bigger i said before that we expect a net tariff impact for this year in a low triple digit million amount which is mostly reflected in the second half of the year With the highest impact in the quarter four and this is excluding 232 and then 232 comes on top now and yeah this will be a tariff impact now without mitigation obviously in quarter four because we have just two months there. And then, of course, now we're, as I said, working on understanding it all better and see how we will react to it and looking at production footprint. And of course, also looking at like, what do we produce in the US? What do we produce in Mexico? How we can navigate that in the best possible way going forward with the stipulations that we have now in the new regulation.

Okay. My second one, and I hope you can hear me, is on the guidance for the year. You are reiterating the guidance for the year, but if Mercedes-Benz is 6.5% fourth quarter, trucks North America, low single digits, and trucks Asia going backwards, I mean, the absolute EBIT level, it looks to be at the low end of your guide, around 3.6 billion. I just want to sort of understand if you're guiding towards the lower end, because that is what I get to.

yeah so the profitability um we're we're towards the lower the lower end for the year revenue you can expect around the midpoint um and then the sales um there between the midpoint and um and the lower end the unit sales um and that's that's where we expect to be perfect absolute final one on orders in trucks north america strong in september but obviously the mix is tricky

I think you're alluding to that October was also better than September. Is that, do you think, Eva, any sort of pre-buy ahead of section 232 November 1st? How do you understand the order trend? Thank you.

No, I do not see a pre-buy effect implicating October. What we see is obviously October, November, These are the periods when some of our customers are also starting then to really order for the next year and planning their capacities. But we do see that happening much less than in previous years, because in the past, we also had capacity constraints on the OEM side. And this is clearly not the situation right now, because we're in the longest freight recession that the American market has seen in a long time. It's going on for more than Three years historically, usually a freight recession ended after about one and a half years. And so what we see now, obviously, on the OEM side is the capacities are there. So our customers do not really see the necessity to now already order for the next year in a significant manner. So it's still interesting. again it's it was a positive development in quarter three much better than quarter two sequentially in october is continuing a positive trend but it's not a spike or anything that would indicate a pre-buy thank you the next question comes from michael aspinal from jeffries please go ahead

Thanks. Good morning, Eva. Michael from Jefferies here. I'm just wondering if you've had many conversations with customers about how they're thinking about potentially higher prices in the context of your total cost of ownership advantage with the eCascadia.

Thank you, Michael. I actually had a lot of discussions with our customers during the course of last week because I was at the ATA meeting exhibition and conference in San Diego last week and we had a lot of discussion. So what I can say, what our customers are saying is they believe we are the best in the market. That's why they like to buy from us because we have the reliability. They see the total cost of ownership advantage overall to be there. because it's also for them not only about fuel efficiency, where we're doing well, but it's about the dealer network, where we have the strongest in the United States. It's about spare parts availability. It's about service quality that our dealer network provides. And then, of course, quality of the truck that they can rely on. And so they're really saying is market has been extremely weak. So they're obviously suffering from this really long freight recession, but they are committed to us. And that is something that became very clear. What we also need to say that obviously because of this freight recession and the situation in the market, the ability of price increases at the moment is fairly limited until the market really picks up. And that's something that we need to take into consideration because we have really demonstrated our pricing power over recent years. And we can see that also in quarter three, we had a net positive price effect in North America. In quarter four, that will obviously turn a bit because of tariffs, but generally a really good price position. But now when it comes also into the next year, We do hope, of course, that the market will pick up. And I know we said that a year ago also. But at one point, we should see a turnaround. But we do not expect to see it at the moment in quarter one. And it will probably happen more towards the second half of the year. And with the return of the market in the U.S., then, of course, also pricing will be a different thing. situation again at the moment as i said before when i answered class question with capacities being there on the oem side it's always a bit different but generally we believe we are well positioned with the e-cascadia and the e-cascadia gen 5 which just came out which is well received by our customers

Okay, great, thanks. One more for me then, and I won't surprise you that it's on tariffs. There's been some details of the tariffs announced, but whenever I speak to dealers or anyone else, there are always kind of mentions of negotiations. Are you able to give us any indication as to if you believe the current state of tariffs is the final state of tariffs that will exist kind of for 20, I mean, I guess as I'm asking, it sounds like a silly question.

Well, Michael, I didn't bring my crystal ball today, so I'm afraid I don't have an answer. I really wouldn't want to make a prediction on this one right now because I guess nobody knows.

Okay, cool. Thanks very much. One more small one then. Can you help us with the U.S. content of trucks you're bringing across from Mexico?

Yeah, I mean, we talked about that, of course, before also that we're bringing the full powertrain is coming from Detroit. So that's for sure something that we can deduct from a Mexican assembled truck. And then we also have some other U.S. components and material. And that's how we're looking at it right now.

Okay, thanks.

The next question comes from Shaquille Kirunda from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Hey, good morning. Shaquille from Morgan Stanley. Thanks for taking my question. Can you please tell us a bit more about the mood of North America customers? You know, like we discussed, ACT order data is improving sequentially but remains on low levels. Are customers more positive than they were three months ago or, you know, is this just seasonality? And then can you remind us on the cancellation policies and delays Once orders are placed, how easy is it for customers to push those out in case they change their mind?

Yes. How's the mood? Maybe slightly better. So, obviously, one of the questions I asked most last week was, when do you think we will see a recovery? And most of them are saying that they hope so. in the second half of next year, but also acknowledging that we expected that a year ago. The earliest recovery that somebody sees is maybe towards the end of quarter two. Quarter one, I haven't really heard much positivity around. So it's still a wait and see mood. And we really need to see freight rates getting to a better level. level there in order to i think really see a changed mood and and momentum so yeah nobody's excited about the market i can tell you that much and a lot of players in the market are struggling because of that on your question about cancellations um The one thing is how it is, how is it contractually and how do you then maintain it? And I mean, that's also how we managed it this year. So we have obviously firmly placed orders, but with our large customers, especially in the United States, we also work in the way that they reserve production slots. And then it doesn't make a lot of sense to say you reserved it and now you have to take the trucks because it's about long-term customer relationships that we want to have. And we are, the OEM in the North American market that has the most mega fleets and large fleets in the customer base and so the customer relationship is most important for us but also when now over the last couple months we've seen some cancellations it wasn't excessive so I think that's really not the main problem we have that it's cancellations and it's also not as I said that we're getting an excessive amount of orders now for next year because our customers know We have an order cycle of six to eight weeks. So at the moment, the capacity is there. You're getting a truck.

Got it. Thank you very much. And then can you please tell us about European order trends? I understand we're probably still growing year on year, but should we be concerned about sequential declines? And then some of your peers expect the German infrastructure expenditure to kick in by year end. Do you also see this? And then any update on costs down in Europe, if possible.

Sure. So, yes, European order trend. I mean, in Europe, it's getting better. I mean, I think you saw that with our numbers also. We had now a positive book to build also in Europe again, which we're happy about, but it's still not on a really good level. So we have been waiting for this recovery in Europe also for a long time now. And Germany, yes, I mean, we were already very excited in quarter one that now it should hopefully help happen also with the governmental announcements of infrastructure spending, defense spending. We don't see it yet in Germany. From what I'm hearing, nobody is. But yes, it should come at one point. And let's hope that in next year and beginning of next year, we see a bit of movement there. Right now, we don't yet. So we really see Germany order intake with a moderate development, but we really don't see that decisive turnaround yet. And I mean, Europe overall improving slightly sequentially from an order perspective. When I go a bit through the European market, we see a strong order intake in France in quarter three. So there's higher demand. Spain is also seeing really, really positive order development. We had an exceptionally strong order intake in Poland in quarter three and also in the UK. So this is where we really saw positive impulses. So it's sequentially better, but not a decisive turnaround at this point. And then next year, we do hope that we will see a recovery and we will give you an update then in March when we also give you our outlook for 2026. On cost on Europe, we're progressing well. I mean, we gave you, I think, a lot of detail that our capital markets day. So in all the different areas where we have set our targets, we have now really on a detailed level defined the measures and the action items and we're working them through bit by bit. And we are on track to deliver what we said at the capital market day also for 2026, which is a positive impact of a low triple-digit million range for the year. So this is all going as planned, and we're happy with the progress.

Great. Thank you very much.

The next question comes from Akshat Kaker from JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

Thank you for taking my questions, Eva. A couple of them, please. The first one on the Mercedes-Benz trucks bridge. Could you just explain the factors that are driving all the movements there? Volumes are up on a year-on-year basis. I see gross profit contribution is down. There's another bucket that is up 80 million in the quarter. You've also talked about some strategic net pricing actions. Could you just help us understand that Q3 margin better? And why are we expecting Q4 margins to be flattish on Q3? That's the first question. The second one is on CapEx and cash restructuring assumptions as we go into 2026. At the CMD, you've talked about a pickup in CapEx for next year. Could you just give us your updated thoughts on CapEx and cash restructuring for 2026, please? Thank you.

Sure, thank you for your question. So let's look at the Mercedes-Benz trucks bridge first. Maybe first you were talking about this others item, the 82 million. So what we do have there, I mean, these are mainly valuation adjustments for provisions that we have booked there. Overall, when you look at the moving parts in quarter three of Mercedes-Benz trucks, I mean, what we obviously see is that we do have cost effects from these ramp-up challenges in our plant in Wörth, Germany, because that comes with a lower efficiency if you have missing parts. You also have some issues with quality from supplier parts. and really getting a production process running at an official level, and you have to do rework, so that costs you something, and then we have parallel activities in our old Sperrpad Center, and then the new Sperrpad Center in Halberstadt, Germany, where you have an impact, and so this is something that will also accompany us during the fourth quarter, but we also had that in the in the third quarter R&D we did have an effect obviously in quarter three of higher spending versus prior year quarter but we also will see then a seasonally higher quarter for spending in R&D which is something that we also had and then there was a positive effect in quarter three which will not duplicate in quarter four, which is provision releases. So as you see, the year is a bit weaker than we planned because markets are not very favorable right now. And that means that also incentive provisions could be released to a certain degree. So we took them down to the current forecast projections. That's something that we will not see duplicating in quarter four. So in quarter four at Mercedes-Benz trucks, we have a bit higher volumes. But we do still see some mix effects and we do see that we have these reworks that will still be affecting our productivity and a higher R&D portion that is then leading to a profitability, which will be on a very similar level in quarter four compared to quarter three. And then the second part of your question was about capex and cash next year. So as I presented also during the capital market day, we are seeing a peak in capex expenditure in the next two years. And that is still what we believe. And then from a restructuring perspective we do see next year that we will have I mean this year it was the consumption of our restructuring provision that we booked in in quarter two is very very limited next year that will be a bit more but we will then update you in our annual results conference as what the premises are for 26 in detail thank you very much

The next question comes from Daniela Costa from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Hi, good morning. I have two points. The first point is a follow-up on some of the tariffs-related debates. But based on what you said, I guess you're not putting an extra surcharge and you haven't decided on CAPEX plans yet. So as we look into the first half of 26, is there still enough time to do a full compensation? Or should we say that like first half 26 anyways, we should be at sort of materially lower profitability and then compensation will take into effect later? And also, does what happens to Section 232 has any bearing on how you think about the buyback cadence?

Thanks, Daniela, for your question. So, no, it's really too early to say what the effect of 232 in the first half of the year will be. And we are obviously, the first step is now understanding exactly what all the stipulations in the 232 regulation mean. And again, we're also talking to the U.S. government when it comes to that to understand it better and of course also talking about mitigation and so on. Once we know it, then we can talk about our pricing assumption, potential surcharges and so on. I mean, I said before that yes, in a low market where there is enough capacity also, there are limits to how much you can do with pricing. But again, we're having that discussion. Once we understood what the impact is, then we will look at potential pricing topics and when we could do something and what the implications would be. It's really too early to talk about that. I mean, what I can say is, yes, I mean, we're not intending to push through potential full 232 effect to our customers. I mean, we're also seeing, and I mean, I talked to you about that, the net impact of coverage for this year, excluding 232 is a low triple digit million effect that we've obviously passed on. a portion of this to our customers and a portion of it you see in our results. So that's the way to think about tariff effects. And then when it comes to share buyback and implications on next planning capex and so on, obviously we're also, when we do our budget right now, when we're currently finalizing our budget planning for the next, year. It's going to take us another month, month and a half or so. And there, of course, we also look at capex and we look at the target there for next year. The whole picture comes together with our market assumptions because volume plays a decisive role, as you can see this year, with significantly lower volumes, especially in North America. That will then give us a better overview of where we are on free cash flow generation for next year. And what I said about the buyback is obviously we need to understand what 232 means exactly, and then we will look at the projections for the next year, and then we will decide on the start of the buyback at this point in time because obviously it doesn't make sense to start the first tranche of a buyback because you have to also define on the value of the first tranche and the speed of the buyback and for that you need some visibility as to how the next couple quarters are going to look like and once we know that obviously we will update you.

Got it. And the follow-up just on Mercedes-Benz, both sort of for the European and for Brazil, like, of course, the deliveries you guided significantly up, but I guess that's because of the supply chain or the trucks you didn't deliver because of supply chain issues. But if we think about sort of production rates, are you considering them moving forward up, down, flat? Sort of what's the production plan? I guess that's a bit different to what the deliveries path will look.

Yeah, I mean, in Europe it's not moving up because we do expect to sell off quite a bit of also new vehicle stock in the fourth quarter, which is something that we usually do because we have a shutdown over Christmas of our German plant. And then, of course, we will also catch up from that ramp-up issue topic with the supplier parts. And that will then also contribute to cash flow with the reduction of raw material and unfinished goods. So that's one portion of the cash contribution we expect in quarter four. But then the other one is obviously that we sell new vehicle stock that has built up in Europe. because we don't see that development there that we saw in North America that inventories also with our own stock levels are down significantly now. So that is the movement there and that's why the production program in quarter four is a bit lower for that reason and in brazil it's a bit lower because of market so we do see a weaker market in brazil overall we are holding up quite well we're winning market share but the market overall as i said during my speech is is weakening in brazil got it thank you very much the next question comes from harry martin from bernstein please go ahead

uh yeah um good morning everyone thank you for taking my question um the the first one i have is just on the the us competitive position and pricing um i saw that the the class 8 market share went below 40 in q3 what would you put the the main driver of that being down to but but also Packard said into next year they're looking forward to moving away from surcharge pricing. So does this become a competitive disadvantage for you if you're adding a 2-3-2 surcharge and the players with domestic production are not going to be doing that competitively anymore?

Okay, first class eight market share. Thanks, Harry, for your question. So what we see also when we look at now the orders of the last couple of months, we see our class eight market share holding steady, which is good. We did see for a couple of months earlier in the year that ours was a bit weaker, but that was mainly due to mix because, as I said before, we have our customers, other mega fleets, the large fleets, And they've been ordering a bit less than the smaller and medium-sized fleets. So it was a bit customer structure on the highway side. But we do not see that we're losing market share in Class 8. And we do believe we're well positioned competitively. And about tariff surcharges, just to repeat what I said already, it's too early to talk about tariff. there are surcharges for 2.32 because we first need to understand the impact. And there are a lot of discussions and evaluations happening. And so that's really not something I can comment on at this point. We've had a surcharge for two quarters now, and this is still there. And everything else we're currently evaluating.

Okay. And then the final question that I have is on next year's outlook. The current consensus has double digit EBIT growth for 2026. So I wondered how you feel about that and also what market volume you would need in the US and Europe to be able to hit that level of growth next year.

Harry, I understand that that's a very important question to ask, but it's really too early.

As I said, we need a couple more weeks to finalize our budget, our market assumptions, and all the moving parts before we can comment on the 2026 development.

Thank you very much.

The next question comes from Alex Jones from Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Great, thank you. Two, if I can. The first, just back on Mercedes-Benz volumes, you talked about your Q4 guidance being contingent on supply chain resolution. Can you give us an update on that and how confident you are that that does get solved in Q4? And then perhaps the second question on talk, I think press reports during the course have suggested you were seeking a partner for that business. Can you give any comment there and what you would be looking for in a potential partner, whether that's sort of a strategic help to scaling the business or more from the financial perspective? Thank you.

Thanks, Alex, for your question. So let's start with Mercedes-Benz Trucks volume being contingent on solving supply chain issues. So we do have some items in place. We had the last review two days ago, and I think there are Good chances that we will get that solved during the course of quarter four. Of course, it's also always depending on our suppliers. And I mentioned that one reason is also that we have a higher demand for the Actros L with the pro cabin than what we expected. and which capacities then we also reserve for that on the supplier side which is obviously great that our customers appreciate our new product so much and you also see a see it in the significant market share recoveries over the last couple months in europe so this is really a product that's being well received um and now we obviously need to get the production Up and running because we also want to be prepared then of course for fully better markets also here But again, we have action. I we have action plans in place And we're we're getting through step by step. So I We can figure that out by the end of the quarter and work on a good path I have to put in one disclaimer. It is obviously also dependent on the next period topic not hitting us and I mean, that's something that affects everybody in the market. So far, we've been able to manage it quite well. I think everybody's doing a lot of broker buys and we're used from the last supply chain crisis and how we can deal with that. And we have also strengthened our supply chain. And at the moment, production is running smoothly. But obviously, this is also something where we just need to be looking at and it's a watch item. On the second question, torque, I mean, I can't comment on media speculations. What I can say is we are progressing well with our virtual driver software. And we do have trucks on the road in Texas, still with the safety driver in, but we are really moving forward step by step and we've seen good progress over the last couple of quarters. We're hitting our milestones and then there are various options for how we will continue with that business. But we do believe we have a great value proposition because we do have TORQ as an independent subsidiary that works on the virtual driver. And then we have in our North American business the part where we have developed an autonomous ready Cascadia, so a redundant chassis as we call it. And we also see that this is the very competitive product right now where we're ahead when it comes to the technology. And that's something where we believe we are well positioned then once the autonomous market starts and once the technology is ready for a market release, we are well positioned on the vehicle side and on the software side, and then having, of course, our customers and the market access, that that will put us in a very favorable position.

Thank you.

The next question comes from Miguel Borrega from BNT Paribas. Please, go ahead.

Hi, good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. First one, just on Mercedes-Benz. I wanted to understand how do you see a 20% increase in sales quarter on quarter, but flattish profitability, especially, you know, it's a bigger quarter, more operating leverage, perhaps even a better mix with more trucks coming from Europe or the reintake has been very strong lately. So what is the headwind there?

Yes, I think I, um, answered it already so we did have a positive impact in in quarter three also coming from provision releases from an incentive perspective and then overall the mix is actually not really better in in quarter four i mean there are always a lot of moving parts in a in a global business that is mercedes-benz trucks And we do also see that pricing is obviously not easy in this market. We're winning back share. We're being disciplined in pricing. But of course, in a difficult market environment, we already had negative net pricing in quarter three that will continue in quarter four. We have seasonally always a bit higher spending levels in quarter four with the cost ramp up in really all areas. And so that's where we see that coming from.

Okay, thank you. And then going back to North America and a little bit more broadly, and if we take a step back, given the setup of tariffs at the moment, if we had a favorable market, if volumes do ramp up, perhaps in 26 or 27, do you think the midterm guidance for margins of 10 to 14% is still possible? Do you think the business setting will change so significantly that you may now operate on a different margin range? Thank you very much.

Thank you, Michael. So that's now really looking further into the future. What I can say is what we have presented at the Capital Market Day. This is our target level and that's what we stick to. And these are targets for 2030. And, of course, with a different tariff environment now, we need some time on mitigation. So that's where, obviously, on a short-term basis, you will see an effect. But we do believe when we look at it on a five-year basis, structurally, we're well on track. And we do believe that we have a lot of potential, as we outlined in our capital market day.

Yeah, I just wanted to understand the margin coming down from 12 to 6 and even lower in Q4. How much of that has been driven by, obviously, lower volumes? Your volumes are quite weak. And how much will be the impact of tariffs going forward? So if we shave, I don't know, 5 percentage points from a weaker market and 200 basis points for tariffs, we can kind of give us the range for a new margin setting. But I just wanted to understand if the 14% is still possible even with the tariffs.

Yeah, I mean, again, when it comes to the future, I think I explained how we think about that, what I can tell you about quarter three. I mean, the tariff impact was a double digit impact and the rest, I mean, obviously also came from a mix effect, but mainly volumes. So that gives you probably an idea. I mean, we are operating under significantly lower volumes now in the second half of the year than in the first half of the year.

Okay. Thank you very much.

The next question comes from Hemal Bundia from UBS. Please go ahead.

Good morning, Marcus and Eva. Thank you for taking my questions. Hemal Bundia from UBS. Just could you remind us the levers that you have available to you in Q4 in achieving the industrial free cash flow target? I understand Q4 is seasonally strong for industrial free cash flow, but any specifics you would like to call out? Is it more so driven by inventory or profitability? Thank you.

Yes, very good question here, Mal. Thank you for that. So the free cash flow increase in quarter four – The biggest increase versus the first three quarters of the year is coming from Mercedes-Benz trucks. And that's something that we see every year. So we always see that year end sprint with a very strong seasonality. And it's mainly coming from inventory. reduction of course there are always also some movements in receivables and payables but by far the biggest junk is coming from inventory reduction and within that um and i said it already it's a reduction of the new vehicle stock because we then also have the shutdown over christmas and then it's a reduction of raw materials and unfinished goods because that's where we have very high inventories right now because of the ramp up issues because we need to get the trucks really finished and out of the door and delivered to our customers and our customers are waiting for it. So when we talked before about confident, are we going to achieve also our sales and profitability targets in quarter four during these supplier challenges in Mercedes-Benz trucks? Well, our customers are waiting for the trucks and this is the biggest motivation we have to get it solved.

Understood, thank you. And on my second question, On Mercedes-Benz, you mentioned selective pricing. Is that more so much on a geographic basis or is it by a certain customer type? Thank you.

It's something that we see in Europe because of the market weakness. So we do see that in India and also in Brazil, we still have a more positive pricing development. But in Europe, obviously, it's a competitive situation right now as the market has been down for a while.

Thank you, Eva. Thank you, Markus.

The next question comes from Frank Biller from LBBW. Please go ahead.

Yes, hello. Thanks for taking my question. The one question is just you can confirm the dividend payout ratio of 40 to 60% of net profits. That would be helpful. And the other question is on electrification. So there was a huge increase in the third quarter coming from the order intake. Was there a special topic from the pricing side that they have such a big increase? And what is your expectation for the next years to come? Is it speeding up or is it more slowing down in these circumstances?

Yes, thank you, Frank, for your question. I'll take the electrification one first. So why is the order intake so good? Because we're pretty sure that we have the best product in the market with the eActros 600. We also now launched the eActros 400. I said that we're the market leader in heavy-duty electric trucks. In Europe now, we had more than 50% market share in the third quarter. I think that speaks very clearly for the quality and customer benefit of the e-Actros. And we do see that our customers see this as a strong advantage and the customers that are buying the truck, they also see already total cost of ownership benefits if they are operating in countries in Europe where they have a toll advantage from a road toll perspective. and where they have the access to the charging infrastructure for example when they have their own chargers and distribution centers because the public charging infrastructure is really still lacking and that's what's holding us back we do believe we've really demonstrated that we did everything we can do by having a very competitive product and we also see um that our price is at the right level so this um there's there's nothing that we're seeing where we're underpriced pressure, but we see that our pricing is value based for the e-actros and this is also being accepted. But now the infrastructure topic is the biggest one, because if our customers cannot charge their trucks for the routes that they're using, then they also cannot order one. And that is something where we do need now also governmental support. And that's something that we're lobbying for also in the European commission level. So that's where we have to see how the development will ramp up. But we see that if customers buy a truck, there's more than a 50% chance that it's an e-actros and not a competitor product. So that's good. On the dividend payment payout ratio, yes, 40% to 60%. is our ratio. I mean, we're not religious about it. And obviously we will look at the dividend policy once we have closed the year. And then we will give you... But it's very important to us that we have... capital allocation policy. We do generally believe that also stable dividends are important, but we'll give an update once we have decided on dividend payout for next year.

Okay, thanks. Maybe on the margin side from the electrification, so margins are still positive, but lower than combustion engines, is that right, yeah?

No, they are not. So when we look at it on a percentage basis, so gross profit in percent of revenue, it's a very similar level. And then, of course, the absolute margin contribution is higher because the price of an electric truck is still quite a bit higher than a diesel truck.

Thanks a lot. That's helpful. Thank you.

The last question comes from Nick Hudson from RBC Capital Market. Please go ahead.

Yes. Hi, Eva. Thanks for taking my question. Just one left for me. I was wondering if you could just provide us with an update on the vocational market in North America. It's obviously been quite a nice counterweight during the on-highway recession. So just wondering how you're seeing that market heading into 2026. Thanks.

Thank you for your question, Nick. So the vocational market has been holding up a bit better over the last couple of quarters than the on-highway market. And I mean, obviously not as strong as last year, which was an extremely strong year for vocational and we're gaining market share. The Western Star product range is extremely well received. So we do see that we continue on our trajectory of gaining market share. towards our target of 35% market share in 2030. So, we are on track there. Of course, also a weaker market for vocational this year than last year, but it's holding up better.

Great. Thank you very much.

So, ladies and gentlemen, thank you very much for your questions and for being with us today. Thank you very much, Eva, for answering the questions in this, I would say, quite extensive call. After a short break, the Q&A call for media will start 20 past nine. Now, as always, investor relations remain at your disposal to answer any further questions you might have. We're looking forward to staying in contact with you. Have a great day. Thank you and goodbye.