Edp Sa S/Adr

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for attending EDP's 9 Months 24 Results Conference Call. We have today with us our CEO, Miguel Stuart Andrade, and our CFO, Rui Teixeira, which will present you the main highlights of our strategy's execution and 9 Months 24 financial performance. We'll then move to the Q&A session, in which we'll be taking your questions both by phone or written questions that you can insert from now onwards at our webpage. I'll give now the floor to our CEO, Miguel Stuart Andrade.

Thank you, Miguel. And hello, everyone. Thank you for attending our nine months results conference call. And what a week it's been. So definitely a lot happening. And hopefully this call will help clarify issues and questions that you may have. We move to slide three. I'd just like to start off with a quick look at the nine months performance. The first thing to highlight, I think, is that the nine months performance once again demonstrates the strength of our diversified portfolio. And it really highlighted our progress also in decarbonization. 97% of EDP's generation in these nine months came from renewable sources, hydro, wind, and solar. And the renewable generation increased 80% year on year. So this is at the EDP level. We're not even talking about EDPR. 97% at the EDP level. In other words, EDP as a whole has taken big steps in its decarbonization journey while growing and maintaining a strong financial performance. The quarter was supported by a good performance of the integrated segment, had really excellent performance. It Excluding coal deconsolidation impact, the integrated Iberian generation supply EBITDA increased 15%. It's backed by strong hydrovolumes. It was slightly offset by lower spot prices and then positively impacted by lower energy sourcing costs. In terms of networks, so resilient electricity networks, we had an EBITDA excluding gains of plus 7%, supported by higher consumption and inflation updates in Brazil and Portugal. On wind and solar, there was a positive underlying performance of EBITDA excluding asset rotation gains of around 7% year-on-year, while the figure including gains was penalized by the lower asset rotation gains year-on-year. These effects led to EBITDA being stable year-on-year, reaching €3.9 billion. The top-line performance, together with improved performance below EBITDA, led to a net profit increasing of around 7%, so reaching almost €1.1 billion in the period. Improved performance below EBITDA included lower minorities following the EDP Brazil minorities buyout. And we'll talk about that later in the presentation. I'd just like to take a step back and remind everyone that back in 23, we set out a target of 1.3 billion euros of net income for EDP in 2024. And we are delivering those 1.3 billion that we committed to. In fact, with some upside risk for the full year. This has a different composition from what was initially expected with lower EDPR numbers. but better networks, Brazil and Iberia integrated margin. Again, I think it shows the value and the stability of the EDP diversified portfolio. And if we move now to the next slide and talk about hydro. So hydro generation increased 66% year on year and reached 9.4 terawatt hours. This reflected the strong hydro resources in the year. We had hydro resources 33% above average and compared to the nine months of 23, that was approximately 21 below average. It was an outstanding quarter also in terms of pumping generation, increased 19% year-on-year, reaching 1.4 terawatt hours. You can see that on the left-hand side. And I'll provide more color on this on the next slide, but I just wanted to highlight that we're able to lock in very attractive spreads of close to 50% of baseload price. On the right-hand side of the slide, our hydro reservoirs continue at very healthy levels, currently at 65%, more than 15% or percentage points above average for this time of the year And that leaves us feeling confident on hydro volumes for the fourth quarter of the year, which, as you know, is normally one of the wetter quarters and one that we sometimes qualify. But I think we're well-placed given the levels of hydro we have. To move on to slide five, let's talk about the value of the flexible hydro portfolio. On the left-hand side of the slide, you can see the intraday prices deviation has been increasing over the last few years. It's a typical duck curve beginning to show up. So the hourly price curve is getting steeper and steeper as the solar production increases, as a proportion of the total production. So this for us is actually a good opportunity to use our flexible generation capabilities. As you know, 85% of our hydro portfolio in Iberia includes reservoirs, and that allows us to concentrate to generation in the peak hours and capture that premium pricing. And 45% of the generation of the hydro portfolio includes pumpings. And so, again, we can take advantage of the lower prices in the day when the solar penetration is higher and then sell at night. We see this potential already in the 2024 numbers in a material way. If you look at the hydro premium evolution, it's the evolution of the hydro realized price versus the base load price. You see it constantly increasing from around 10% in 2020 to around 20% in 23 and now around 25% in the nine months, 24. When we look at the hydro pumping spreads over baseload, the trend is also the same. It's reaching around 50% in 2024. So increasing premiums and spreads over the years. So a lot of value creation here. We expect this trend to continue as the renewables penetration in the system rises and intraday prices get more volatile. Move on to slide six and talking about the integrated business. So as you know, baseload volumes for 2024 were contracted at a price of around 90 euros per megawatt hour. Obviously, that was a price we were able to lock in in the context of higher prices back in 2022 and 2030. The other side, we had above-average hydro volumes that were partially offset by significantly lower uncontracted electricity prices. I'd also like to add here on the gas side that our Trinidad and Tobago LNG gas sourcing contract with Atlantic ended in September. So that implied some volatility in our energy management EBITDA over the last couple of years, had a negative impact in 2022 and 2023. EBITDA level and a positive impact in the first nine months of 2024. We don't expect any further impact from this contract from the third quarter onwards. Since our business plan updates last May, the forward prices have actually moved up slightly for 2025 and 2026, leaving us aligned with the guidance we provided at the time. So the recent uplift in prices has continued to allow us to close positions for 2025 and 2026 at better prices. So for 2025, we have around 85% of baseload generation volumes closed at around 70 euros per megawatt hour. For 26, we have around 40% of volumes hedged at a price of around 63 euros per megawatt hour. And the increase in the forward prices could have a positive impact in our upcoming hedging prices. As you know, we typically don't hedge 100% of our volumes and our strategy is to be around 80 to 90% hedged to mitigate hydro volume risk. Talking about Porto. So, Portugal is actually, over the last couple of years and certainly today, a very successful case study in terms of economic growth, coupled with significant improvement on public finances. This has strengthened its low-risk investment profile. I still remember people betting on Portugal exiting the Euro back in 2011-12. It's definitely not the case now. I would highlight that this September, Fitch actually reviewed upwards the outlook for Portugal for the A- rating from stable to positive. And when we look at the 10-year government bond deals, they're actually trading lower versus Spain, France, or Italy, for example. Public accounts are in a budget surplus since 2023, and this is expected to continue in 2024 and 2025, according to the state budget proposal for 2025. Also included in the proposal, the public debt to GDP is expected to continue a downward trend, reaching 93% in 2025, but well below the 100%, and certainly well below 130% that we had. just a few years ago. All of this has been done while reducing also the nominal corporate tax rate from 21% to 20%, possibly going lower over future years. I think this planned reduction is positive for the investment environment in Portugal and should drive also additional growth and consumption. In terms of other taxes, we continue to believe that a reduction in them says the extraordinary contribution should happen at some point because it's a tax that's clearly outlived its purpose. As I've said publicly many times, apart from the fact that it's supposed to be extraordinary and we're certainly not in extraordinary times anymore, this is actually counterproductive to investment in the sector since it's a tax on assets. And the more you invest, the more tax you pay independently of the profit generated. So hopefully the courts will look at this and recognize we're no longer in extraordinary times. And I'd also like to highlight that the government is also proposing a VAT reduction in electricity consumption to support electrification, and that may actually lead to an increase in electricity consumption. And if you look on the right-hand side of the slide, it's just a quick summary of the 2025 electricity tariff proposal. The average retail tariffs are increasing 2%, with Portuguese electricity prices continuing clearly below European average. If we look at the industrial clients, Portugal has the fifth lowest price in the European Union, the fifth lowest price in the European Union. So Portugal is one of the most competitive energy costs in Europe. And on top of it, clean. Last year, 75% of our generation was renewable in Portugal. So together with being the fifth lowest price, definitely supports a thesis of industrialization of Portugal, including with data centers and other electric, electro-intensive businesses. So I think it is possible. It just shows it is possible to have very competitive price in Europe and certainly with renewables. Obviously, there are other factors, including taxes and other non-energy costs that are sometimes included in energy prices. But if you look at just the energy wholesale price, again, extremely, extremely competitive with any other place in the world. Also, the proposal expects a downward trend for electricity system debt to 2025, so reaching 1.7 billion euros. Again, it shows the Portuguese electricity system is able to keep electricity prices relatively stable without compromising the financial system sustainability. And I'm sure most of you remember just over the last couple of years, even when we had the energy crisis, that we were able to keep relatively stable retail prices throughout all of this period. So I think really robust system. Just before I move on to the next slide, I'd also just like to take this opportunity to talk about last week's development in the Quebec judicial case in Portugal. We issued an official statement last week, but since there were a few questions at the hour level, I just wanted to explain the following. So as many of you know, back in 2004, 2007, there's a transition from the Kaizen PPAs to COMEX, so the maintenance of the economic equilibrium regime implemented in Portugal. So this was in order to move the conventional power generation to the single liberalized Liberian wholesale electricity market. It was very similar. to other regulatory or contractual transition processes that we had in other countries, for example, the CTCs or the Ejecut Regimes in Spain. Now, the judicial system has now moved from the investigation phase to the accusation phase, and there's an allegation that there was some undue benefit to EDP in that process. I want to be very clear about this. EDP is not a defendant or party to the litigation, and even more importantly, EDP does not have any undue economic or financial gain or benefit from this transition of the CAIS to the COMEX. This has been validated by the European Commission in 2013 and 2017, as well as many other independent technical opinions. So we have absolutely no doubt that we did not have any undue benefit. In fact, since 2012, the company suffered several financial haircuts to the amounts to be received from the COMEX in different moments and times. So the EDP was effectively worse off with the COMEX than with the previous CAIS PPAs. I think that's the reality. these haircuts, as you know, are being litigated given our strong disagreement with them. So the lawyers have reviewed all the new information available on the case, and we keep the opinion that the risk of any indirect penalty for DP should continue to be classified as remote. So that means not having any accounting provision for this. This will be a very long process, lasting many years. However, we'll obviously keep you updated if there's any additional information that comes up, as we have done so far. And obviously, for any of you that want, as you know, there's you know, extensive information on the history of this process on our website and the IR teams are also available for any clarification you need. If we move on to slide eight and talking about Iberia. So we will have new regulatory periods in Spain and Portugal starting in 2026. I think it's consensual in the sector, so Europe, US, Brazil, that we need to significantly increase investment and ensure adequate returns for electricity networks to be able to do the energy transition. Particularly in Iberia, the need for investment in electricity networks is evident. So we see a trend for an increase in electrification driven by this push for decarbonization. We think that will continue to happen independently of the political cycles. Data center demand, EV adoption, heating and cooling systems. I mean, we're forecasting electricity demand to grow at a CAGR of around 2% to 4% up to 2030. according to our internal forecasts. And then Iberia itself is a market with very strong renewables potential. I just talked about that in relation to Portugal. We have lots of renewable resources, very high NCFs for wind and solar. We have the possibility of further implementation of additional renewable capacity. And so we think that the investments in networks will also be following the investments in renewables. This can actually happen. I mean, we are expecting a significant increase in investment You have assets also that need to be modernized and that are nearing the end of their useful life. There was a big electrification push back in the 70s, and many of these assets are now coming up on 40 years old. So about 45% of the Portuguese transformers are more than 40 years old. So clearly there's a lot of room for further investment here. So EDP is prepared to step up its investment in networks to help drive this transformation, provided obviously that the adequate incentives are in place. We've also been investing very much on efficiency. Both Portugal and Spain, we now have all connection points with smart meters, all of them. The six million plus in Portugal and a million plus in Spain. And these meters are crucial for enhancing network operation efficiency. And they also play a very important part in the energy transition since they also enable us to control much better the charging of electrical vehicles and the development of energy communities. And so we plan to continue to invest in the business. We've recently just made a proposal to the regulator of an increase of 50% in investments in the period 2026 to 2030 in the medium and high voltage electricity networks in Portugal under the multi-annual investment program. That means that CAGR unwrapped networks in Portugal of around 5% over this period. The proposal is under analysis by the regulator, so we'll see if the final numbers are these or the impact on the tariffs of this additional investment should be zero. There's an expected consumption increase, as I mentioned. And so that would dilute basically on a per megawatt hour basis. And so the unitary cost would not increase. So you'd have more investment, but since you have more consumption, the cost on a unitary basis does not increase. And so it should not have any additional impact on tariffs. So this is obviously a material change versus the past. Currently, also in terms of returns, the return on RAB in Portugal is 5.5%. It is one of the lowest rates in Europe, if not the lowest. So there's obviously room for improvement here. But we'll see that in the next regulatory period. I think people generally are recognizing, obviously, the need for further investment in the networks. And that's true everywhere in the world. And it's certainly true also here in Iberia. In Spain, the return on RAB is 5.6%, but there's no inflation updates yet. I think it's important to note that recently the Spanish government issued guidelines on the energy policy for the regulator to consider when setting the allowed return for networks for the new regulatory period. And they emphasize that remuneration should encourage investment in electricity networks. So we believe that the regulator agrees that this is urgent, that the current return rate should be increased. So all in all, the bottom line from this is that improvement of returns is critical for investment in networks. and the investment in networks is critical to support the energy transition. We move on to slide nine, and just doing a quick note here on data center growth opportunities in Iberia. There's been a lot of talk about that. We get a lot of questions on this. I think the first thing to note is that the growth of data centers in Europe is less advanced compared to the US, and we see a very strong potential for growth in Iberia. I mean, talking to an investor the other day, We're seeing Europe maybe being two years behind the US. But definitely, I think people are seeing a wave coming also to Europe, even if it's just a question of having to have the data stored in Europe and not having it stored elsewhere. So the region, as you know, in Iberia, as I mentioned, abundant baseload power, attractive prices, great hub for renewable investments. We're well positioned to take this opportunity. I mean, we have competitive generation. We have the flexible generation like the gas, the hydro pumping, so we can offer 24-7 supply. We have a good track record on PPA origination and self-consumption. We are seeing increasing demand from tech players on PPAs and direct connections. And this year alone, we signed around 1.6 kilowatts of PPAs with over 65% of these agreements made with major tech companies. A lot of this obviously done in the US. Also, our assets are strategically located and we have a lot of existing connection points. So they're great for data center installation. So we are currently exploring several sites to host data centers, and we have more than two gigawatts of grid access opportunities. And this includes around 400 megawatts of secured grid connections and 900 megawatts of grid connection requests. So we'll provide some more updates on this topic in coming quarters. If we move on to slide 10 and talking a little bit about Brazil. So our investment plan continues to be focused on networks, both transmission and distribution. Brazil has a very solid regulatory framework. It's got a 7.3 return on RAB before taxes and yearly inflation updates. Provides a low risk cash flow and stable low risk cash flow. I think one of the things that's all surprised me positively is just the sophistication and stability of the Brazilian electricity system and the sophistication of the regulator. And I think that's proving, you know, to be true also over these cycles. Our two distribution companies are reference players in the country. They have great quality of service indicators, which are outperforming the regulators' metrics. Specifically in EDP Sao Paulo, one of the metrics to measure quality of service, so the duration of interruptions in electricity distributed has decreased consistently since 2022, and it registered its best performance historic record in the first nine months of 2024. So great quality of service in our distribution networks in Brazil. We're also seeing very strong electricity demand growth in the country. I mean, in our distribution companies, the demand has increased 10% more than at the overall country level, where demand has only increased 5% year on year. So we are in areas of high growth. These concessions, distribution concessions, as you know, the The extension process is ongoing. The public hearings have started in October. EDP Spirits sent to the first company to renew the concessions. It will be renewed for 30 years up to 2055. The contract is expected to be signed in the second quarter of 2025. But I think one of the interesting things about this is that it's pretty much an automatic extension as long as you have good quality of service indicators and as long as you're committed to investing in these distribution networks. And as I mentioned, We have great quality of service and we are investing significantly in these companies. We will continue to invest around 1.3 billion euros in the period 24 to 26. That's about three times depreciation and amortization. So three times higher than depreciation and amortization, which compares to some European countries where it's just slightly over one time. On the right hand side of the slide, there's a positive trend on power prices. So both in the short term and in the long term. In the short term, this has pretty neutral financial impact given the hedging position. But for the next couple of years, for 26 and beyond, we see improving prospects for the PPA market. Finally, just to say, the Brazilian real has been depreciating. For the last few months, the Brazilian real has decreased 60 cents, but this has a limited impact since the funding is also in local currency and it provides a natural hedge for FX. So for each 0.5 euros to Brazilian real change, the net income in 25 is 0. impacted by around 30 million euros. Finally, just last couple of slides. So on wind and solar, we talked about this also in the ADPR call, but we installed in the first nine months 1.3 gigawatts, three gigawatts over the last 12 months. Installation pays slightly slower than initially anticipated, so we'll have a higher concentration of installations the last quarter of the month, believe me. We are all frustrated with some of the operational issues that have come up and are working hard to solve them. As of today, we have mechanically completed another one gigawatt and total capacity additions by year end are expected to reach the target of around four gigawatts. And 80% of that will be North America and Europe. Overall, lower wind resource, grid congestions, installations now concentrated in the last quarter. All of that's led to expected generation for 24 to be between 35 and 36 terawatt hours. On the asset rotation side, I mean, this continues to fuel growth. It's important also for our balance sheet. It's not just about capital gains. There have been solid valuations that support accretive investment decisions under more favorable scenarios. So we're selling assets because we can then reinvest also into better assets and keep the growth path going forward. We've also done some good acquisitions of assets that we know well under the logic of simplifying our portfolios. And also, they are accretive to the EDP and EDPR shareholders. We bought back the Brazilian minorities, more recently also the portfolio of wind assets in Poland, Italy, and Portugal. This year on the asset rotation side, we sold four portfolios, US, Canada, Italy, and Poland. We've completed minority buyback transaction of one gigawatt wind portfolio in Europe. That was announced this last year. In terms of capital gains, I know there were quite a few questions on this, but The 2024 transactions, they have been impacted by projects with peak capex inflation and investment decisions taken in the context of record low cost of capital, which is obviously squeezed in this new environment. So interest rates have come down more slowly than initially expected. I mean, we expect short-term pressure in the asset rotation gains realistically with similar impacts also in the next couple of transactions in 2025. We then expect a recovery of the asset rotation gains from 2026 and beyond, And as we start to rotate projects with substantially higher PPA prices from late 2022 investment decisions and onwards. I mean, just reviewing some investments recently, you know, we've been signing PPAs in the past at $20 or $30 per megawatt hour back in 2019, 2020. I mean, as you know, over the last couple of 12, 18 months or so, we've been signing PPAs at $60 plus. So very big difference in terms of PPA prices. The market demand is still there for asset rotation, and I think that's important also for the balance sheet. A comment here on efficiency, which is extremely important. We continue to be very focused on efficiency. We are focused on making sure we get economies of scale as we continue to grow and stay lean. I think these efficiency efforts are paying off, and they're reflected in the nine-month numbers. OPEX decreases 2% nominal year-on-year. That's more than 4% in real terms. more than offsets the inflation rate in the period. In relative terms, OPEX to gross profit also decreased to 26%. And we've seen EBIT per employee, if you want to use that measure, increasing year on year. So we have lower headcount on an absolute basis, despite growing very quickly and sort of reaching this record growth rate this year. We've implemented several measures. I mean, simplifying the decision-making process, the corporate structures, we've integrated several internal teams, we've optimized the commercial processes, we've obviously been focusing very much on automation of processes and digitalization. On the O&M side, we have a global program in place to really improve the operational profitability of the renewable assets. And as I say, all of these are already having substantial impact in the first nine months, and they'll continue to do so over the next months and years. So all in all, tight OPEX control, crucial to prioritizing cash flow generation and creating shareholder value. Finally, just before I turn it over to Hui. As you know, we've got a 20-year track record in the energy transition. I mean, we've gone from 21% of renewable generation in 2005 to 97% renewable generation in the first nine months of this year. We're also on track to be coal-free by 2025. I mean, Bassan coal plant disposal was concluded in December of 2013. Conversion of a Boyneu thermal plant in Spain from coal to gas It's going to happen in the first half of 2025. And the authorizations have already been requested to close down EDP's remaining coal plants, Sotusri and Los Bajos, both located in Spain. They're not producing at the moment, but we've already requested their closure. And hopefully that will also happen. Our efforts have led to a strong decarbonization trend. We said we're committed to being coal-free for the first time. We said that back in 2021. and we will deliver on that. We've obviously had to operate our coal plants, particularly in the energy crisis, but that is being phased down. And I think what you've seen is a 73% year-on-year decrease in scope one and two emissions intensity to 24 grams of CO2 per kilowatt hours. I think very importantly, I just wanted to highlight this. Our decarbonization efforts have allowed us to reduce our revenues from coal to almost zero, and our revenues from fossil fuels to less than 2%. So this places us in perfect alignment with the sustainable investment criteria as they are below the 5% standard threshold to be eligible for sustainable investments. And with that, I'll stop there and I'll turn it over to Rui. Thank you.

Thank you, Miguel, and good morning. So let's move now to slide 15 to review the financial performance. So on slide 15, recurring EBITDA increased 1% year-on-year to €3.9 billion in nine months. This results from different performances within our diversified portfolio. So on the renewables, clients, energy management, this segment is down by €73 million, driven by lower asset rotation gains at EDPR level. Excluding asset rotation gains, underlying EDPR performance increased €72 million year-on-year And the rest of the segment is up by 71 million year-on-year. Also, it's worth highlighting that the underlying nine months performance more than compensated for the impact of the coal deconsolidation in Abueño and Pessé power plants, which was around 177 million in the nine months last year. So a like-for-like comparison is effectively a performance increasing by 178 million year-on-year from this segment. On the electricity networks, EBITDA XS rotation increased 83 million year-on-year. This reflects the resilient performance both of Brazil as well as Iberia networks. Additionally, there is a 71 million euros capital gain resulting from the transmission deal that we closed back in the first quarter of this year. So all in all, electricity networks, as of now, represent an important 33% of total EBITDA. Finally, I would like to highlight here the efforts on efficiency, as Miguel just did, in a growth context. So OPEX decreasing 2% year on year, which is great and also in absolute terms versus the nine months last year. So the efficiency measures that we have been implementing are already positively impacting the bottom line. If we move now to slide 16, I won't spend too much time here, given what we detailed two days ago. but the underlying EBITDA grew 7%. That's an improved performance year-on-year reflecting 11% growth in installed capacity, wind resources improving versus last year, nine months, but still below average with the renewables index at minus 2%, which combined supported a 5% increase in electricity generation. On the other hand, Average selling price is down 4% year-on-year, driven by the lower electricity prices in Iberia that are offset by hedging at competitive prices, resilient prices in North America, and higher prices in Brazil. So when we look at the total EBITDA delta year-on-year, we have a 10% decrease impacted by lower asset rotation gains in the nine months of this year of 179 million versus the nine months of last year that had very strong gains of 393 million. Please note that this year we'll still have the Romania's non-cash impact, that's 39 million by September, and Colombia around 44 million in the nine months. This week we also updated the market about the status of the project, and I want to manage expectations that during the next two, three months, the go-no-go decision may well lead to the complete write-off of 0.7 billion at GDPR. So if we now move to slide 17, going through the epitaph of generation and supply businesses, Strong performance of hydro clients in the energy management segment with recurring EBITDA increasing 5% year-on-year in the context of 42% year-on-year drop of electricity spot prices in Iberia to 52 euros per megawatt hour versus above 90 euros per megawatt hour last year. This is really a great performance from this segment on the back of strong hydro volumes, 66% increase year-on-year with a premium capture price and strong contribution from flex generation. Effective price hedging strategy also played a very important role at obviously lower energy sourcing costs. As I mentioned previously, on a like-for-like comparison, X coal capacity, EBITDA from this segment increased 15%. So moving now to slide 18. electricity networks, we can really see a good performance of the segment that represents 33% of group total EBITDA and increased 14% year-on-year. In Iberia, EBITDA increased 16 million euros backed by an improved performance in Portugal, where also we can see gross profit adjusted by concession fees and growing 4% year-on-year, supported by inflation update and increased consumption. In Spain, EBITDA stood relatively stable, with revenues increasing due to the RAP growth that compensated for higher maintenance costs. In Brazil, EBITDA increased €139 million, resulting from organic growth and improved operations, with distributed electricity increasing 10% year-on-year, inflation updating the transmission, and the capital gain of €71 million from the asset rotation of two transmission lines in the first quarter. So now I would like to move to Financial costs on slide 19. Financial costs, net financial costs in recurring terms table year on year. And this results from a combination of cost of debt that decreased from 4.9% last year to 4.5% in the nine months this year, following the decline of the Brazilian real denominated cost of debt and the rebalancing of US dollar euro denominated debt as part of the strategy to reduce the US dollar exposure within the portfolio. As one can see on the right-hand side of the slide, U.S. dollar weight over total debt decreased from 30% in the nine months to last year to 19% in the nine months this year. If we exclude the Brazilian real debt, the average cost of debt, which is mostly Euro and U.S. dollar, was 3.3% in the nine months this year versus last year's 3.2%. Also, average cost of debt increased 1.2 billion in the period of setting the lower average cost of debt. And also, please bear in mind that in the nine months last year, we had a positive impact of 37 million euros from the settlement of US dollar pre-hedge. So finally, I would like to highlight that we continue to actively manage debt and liquidity needs. We won billion euros of hybrid issued in September with a 4.625 coupon. and 0.5 billion euros of bilateral loans with five years maturity that we closed until September this year at very competitive spreads as compared to the debt capital markets. So now on the net debt. Net debt stood on slide 20. Net debt stood at 17.3 billion with the main drivers being strong organic cash flow, 1.6 billion of organic cash flow, dividend payment of 0.8 billion euros, regulatory working capital of 0.5 billion, essentially in Portugal. So as usual, we plan to securitize these regulatory receivables by year-end after the final tariffs are presented by the regulator. And also, net cash investments are mounted to 2.9 billion, mainly from the investments in renewables and networks, and including 1.1 billion of asset rotation proceeds. Towards the year-end, we expect to cash in proceeds from tax equity as the projects in U.S. reach the COD, Overall, we are maintaining solid credit ratios, namely FFO over net debt at 20% and remain fully committed to our BBB credit rating. Finally, recurring net profit amounted to 1.1 billion with the electricity networks waiting 42% of this amount. Excluding capital gains, the underlying net profit shows a strong 21% increase versus the nine months last year as a result of a resilient EBITDA Depreciation and amortization and provisions pretty much in line with last year. Net financial costs increasing only 9 million year-on-year, reflecting our continuous effort towards decreasing the average cost of debt, which allows us to obviously stabilize financial costs despite average debt increase. Higher income taxes following higher effective tax rate due to lower asset rotation gains year-on-year. and decrease in non-controlling interests following the lower results at GDPR level and supported by the EDP Brazil successful minority buyout last year. Finally, just to highlight that including asset rotation gains, recurring net profit increased 7% versus last year, showcasing the strong performance of the underlying business, which more than compensated for the asset rotation gains year on year. So, Miguel, back to you for closing remarks. Thank you all.

We have now the Q&A.

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. The Q&A session starts now. As a reminder, if you wish to ask the question.

So we have the last slide from CO for the closing remarks.

Sorry. No, I mean, well, I think we want to make sure we leave time for Q&A, so I'll be very quick. I just wanted to reinforce the point that we had great results for these first nine months and we're well on track to deliver our 1.3 billion of net income for the year. This is in line with what we said and what we've been saying throughout the year and even since last year. I think just highlighting the value of being in Iberia, the value of our operations here in terms of the hydro, Brazil continues to show great growth potential, efficiency, super focused on that and delivering concrete results on that. a solid balance sheet, keeping the FFO net debt at around 20%, making sure we keep the overall debt level at manageable levels. Significant process on the portfolio decarbonization. I think there we've given, you know, very strong strides in achieving our objective to be almost 100% generation, you know, renewable generation. We're pretty much there. So I'd say it's, you know, what we have coming from fossil fuels is pretty marginal and certainly places us very well within sort of the ESG targets and thresholds. And so I wouldn't go on much more. I'll just stop here and turn it over to Q&A.

Ladies and gentlemen, the Q&A session starts now. As a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please press start followed by five on your telephone keypad.

Thank you. So the first question comes from the line of Pedro Alves from CaixaBank BPI. Pedro, please go ahead.

Hi, everyone. Good morning. Thank you for the presentation and congrats for the Q4 delivery, showing again the value of the integrated business. So I have two questions, please. The first one on the rumors of M&A approach from EDP during this year. Well, my question is obviously not for you to comment on rumors, but just to take the opportunity to ask you some reflection of what could be your intentions regarding EDP growth strategy in the future. So given that we have an outlook of, let's say, roughly flat net profit growth for EDP, my question is if you plan to reposition somehow your portfolio and business mix to unlock new avenues of growth that eventually do not put shareholders in an integrated utility not so dependent from the fortunes of renewables, which latest years showed us can be quite volatile. And if that growth repositioning could be done organically or if organic moves are somehow inevitable. The second question is on your outlook for 2025. I know it's probably too early and you usually don't give precise figures on that, but Just to have a sense of direction, given the likely lower generation at EDPR level, also lower realized prices for the integrated business in Iberia. It is fair to say that there is here some downside to current consensus of 5 billion of EBITDA. So if you can just provide some early views on the direction of earnings for next year. Thank you.

Thank you, Peter. Maybe just taking that point and coming back to the first one, but I think I'd say that the outlook for 2025 continues to be that we are comfortable with consensus and the fundamentals haven't changed. We have some areas that are weaker, others that are stronger. And so we look at pretty good hedging and realized prices for the integrated business. We look at distribution doing well and the networks doing well in the various different geographies. We have a slightly weaker EDP renewables. It's also been the reverse in the past in some years. So I think reinforcing again the value of the diversified portfolio and saying we're comfortable with the 25 consensus. On the first point, I think we have a good portfolio, a combination of networks and renewables, and we will grow these as much as we can in the various different geographies. I think in the networks, as I mentioned earlier, We have made a specific proposal to increase investment by around 50% over this period until 2030. And that would translate into a 5% CAGR, for example, for the Portuguese medium and high voltage. Brazil is growing extremely strongly. We'll see in Spain as well, but I think there's probably some good prospects there and also good returns. I think renewables will continue to grow. I mean, let's... As I mentioned in the EDPR call, let's wait and see. But I certainly wouldn't throw in the towel. I think the market's clearly overreacted on the downside. But listen, I think we're, as I mentioned on the call, we're long-term investors and have an industrial approach to this. So I think renewables will continue to grow. We need to see the pace and we'll see in the sort of the different regions and as a function also of what happens in the US, which is obviously a big driver for us. But as I mentioned, I think we continue to see growth in the US as well. So I'd say we have the flexibility to pivot between different parts of our business and different geographies, and we'll continue to do that. So that's what we're focused on is delivering shareholder value over the next couple of years and making sure we grow as much as possible. Obviously, I won't comment on rumors of M&A. I would only say don't believe everything you read in the newspapers, please.

Okay, thank you. Thank you, Pedro. The next question comes from the line of Alberto Gandolfi from Goldman Sachs. Alberto, please go ahead.

Good morning and thank you for taking my questions. I was going to ask you something very similar on strategy and growth. So I'll go a little bit deeper if you don't mind here. you had another 24 hours or so to digest the outcome of the U.S. elections. And so any observations you can bring in terms of what is your contingency plan, what is your risk management in case we have the introduction of tariffs, in case that, I don't know, some equipment, like I'm thinking solar modules, take longer to clear customs, there's a phase-out in tax credits. How are you preparing your business for any of these issues before actually they materialize? And they may never do, right? The power demand has grown a lot in the U.S. I'm just thinking about risk management. And I don't want to be confrontational here, but since 2020, operational execution has not been flawless. And so I'm trying to see how you're preparing for any curveball, as they would say in the U.S. for it. The second question is on your slide on data centers. You talk about more than two gigawatt opportunities of which, if I understand right, 400 megawatts are fully secured. I wanted to ask you more broadly, what do you think is the opportunity here for you? Is this 400 megawatts secured by you, and you're going to try to attract demand, you're going to offer these to big tech developers, or are these 400 megawatts secured on your network already for third-party clients? Basically, how do you monetize the data center opportunity in Iberia? Is it through higher investments in the network? Is it through PPAs? Is it through joint ventures? selling connection points, all of the above. I'm trying to gauge here this opportunity. And the last question is on your 2% to 4% power demand growth. Look, after 15 years of declining demand, if your estimate is correct, and we actually share the fact that the power demand is inflecting, this is changing the shape of the top line of the whole industry, right? So, Can you give us maybe some key assumptions that underpin your forecast in terms of EV penetration, heat pumps, maybe perhaps how many data centers you see in Spain, in Iberia by 2030? And, you know, in this environment, what needs to change for you to capitalize on this opportunity? I'm thinking maybe the allow returns in networks. Thank you so much.

Thank you, Auguste. Um, so quite a, quite a lot to get into and, um, and obviously not a lot of time. So I'll try to be relatively brief and then we can catch up, uh, offline as well. If, um, if you think you want to go in, in deeper, but in the, um, in the first one, so contingency plan, well, the first thing I'd say is, and you know, we mentioned that I think very, very well in the call on ADPR, but things around tariffs, not being able to import solar modules, et cetera. I mean, I think we're very well protected because one of the things we did as a result of what happened two years ago was exactly pivot to a US-based production. So we have, you know, the panels all secured for the next couple of years coming from the US. And, you know, so I think the risk there, that is, I mean, we weren't necessarily expecting or taking a position on whether Trump or Harris winning, but we certainly recognize that there was We wanted to de-risk our supply chain, and this was the way to do it, no matter which administration was in place. And so that's what we've done. So I think we've de-risked the procurement. On the tax credits, again, what I've heard, and many people will tell you, is that they may take a scalpel to the IRA, but not a hammer. You have also Republican candidates. support from many Republicans who support the IRA and who support the tax credits. Tax credits have been around for years and years and years. And, you know, you and I know that. And they've been continuously, you know, reapproved from a partisan level. There's also a figure which is called the safe harbor, which means as long as you've initiated construction on some of these projects and sort of done a minimum amount of investment, then those are also protected from a tax credit side. So I think that's also something that certainly people will be doing. So I think, you know, 25, 26, I'd say that's pretty safe. If something like very drastic, like worst case scenario came in, I mean, obviously that could impact then the medium long-term growth prospects in the US, but certainly 25 and 26, I wouldn't expect that there could be anything that would happen. You know, the US does not have a history of any retroactive sort of changes and stuff like that, which would obviously be more more damaging. So I'd say that, I mean, you know, recognizing that I think if anything, you know, we, we do recognize we've, we have been, we have had aggressive targets in the past and we've been very transparent that they were aggressive and, and, and we've had some operational issues in terms of supply chain and others, which I think we've also learned from that and, and taken measures to correct them. On the second point on data centers. So what's the impact of this? First, this is really for attracting demand. So we get a lot of inbound calls asking for, you know, whether there's connection to the networks. Can we provide supply, you know, renewables or 24-7 supply? I think the driver for value. So that's really, I think, the value of these connection points. Where does it create value for us? It's more investment in networks. It's more PPAs. It's more demand in the system as a whole, which helps also bring down costs and dilute the fixed costs. So I see that as a positive for the system as a whole. So we are obviously fully incentivized to work with the different governments and the different sort of investment bodies to try and promote as much as industrial investment in Iberia and Portugal and Spain as possible. And that's good for the system as a whole. Um, on third point on, on power demand growth. So it's a little bit connected to the second point, if I understood correctly. So as you get more demands flowing in, that will drive, um, more investments in the, um, in the networks. And, um, I don't know if there was any specific comment you wanted to make. I mean, I think you were basically agreeing that there is going to be power demand growth. I don't know, what was the specific comment or question?

No, it was more like a question. Thank you, Miguel, by the way. So far, super exhaustive and patient. Now, the power demand, 2% to 4% per year to 2030. What underpins it? Do you see a pivot, particularly from data centers, EV, industrial electrification?

I think it's the industrial growth. I mean, Spain is one of the fastest growing, if not the fastest growing economy in Europe. you know, Portugal is doing extremely well. You know, we had a slide on that. It's one of the reasons the debt to GDP is coming down so much. It's not that the debt is coming down, it's that the GDP is going up. So these are, well, it's ironic, but it's actually inverted from what it was maybe 10, 12 years ago where you had, you know, the South doing poorly and you had sort of Central Europe doing very well. I think that's, those positions have been reversed. You know, now the discussion is, is Germany okay? And, And the South is booming. So I think we are seeing that demand growth or the economy growing. We're seeing demand growth. And for the reasons I mentioned, we have cheap, clean energy. Even if you install a data center in Portugal, even if you did no PPAs, you'd still have 75% of your generation would be renewable. So that's a great calling card for a lot of investors. So hopefully we can leverage on that. And as I say, we're working hand in hand with the different investment authorities to see if we can promote that. I think that's good for the economy and it's good for business.

Thank you so much. Thank you, Alberto. The next question comes from the line of Manuel Palomo, BNP Paribas. Manuel, please go ahead.

Hello. Good morning, everyone. Just a couple of questions. The first one is on the longer-term outlook. Remember, back in Q1 2024, you provided some outlook for the year 2026. Question number one is whether that is still valid. And question number two is, within that guidance, what is your long-term expectation about what should be a normalised height of performance Because, well, this year we've seen one of the slides mentioned at 33 above the historical average. So I wonder whether you could share what is your expectation for that hydro clients and energy management in Iberia. Secondly, a question on Portugal, which is whether you could update us on what is the latest? You mentioned something about taxes, but I think it's a recurring question on my side, the evolution of the distribution concession renewal process. And linked to this one, the last one would go on the potential for investments in networks in Europe. There's a slide in which you are somehow into it, but what I see is that last year, already in Iberia, we saw that your investments were above 500 million. My question is, what do you expect to be your EDPs, ground rate of investments in Liberia in the year 2026 and onwards when the new regulatory frameworks will begin? Thank you very much.

So I'd say for 2026, we maintain our guidance that we'd already given. 25, as I mentioned to Pedro, we're comfortable with consensus for 26. We're also maintaining the guidance. And so I think the fact that we have this wider portfolio, both in terms of businesses and geographies, means that we're still keeping that guidance. On the long-term expectation on the hydro performance, what I'd say is that that additional rain that we had, which obviously by definition is not hedged, so that comes in at around the 50 euros or so, which was sort of the average price, would give us about 150 million of the additional value from that additional water. So you can take that perhaps as the value of the extra 33%. On the Portuguese taxes, so 21, it's coming down to 20%. And I think there was a view by the government that they would like to bring it even lower. That obviously depends on, it's a minority government, so it depends on negotiations in future. I think they're still focused on getting the current budget approved. But obviously we think that corporate rates coming down is good for investment. It's good for the economy. It promotes growth. That's positive. On the concession renewal process, there were statements. So the government constituted an independent committee to follow the low voltage concessions renewal process and to provide some guidance or opinion by mid-December. But the responsible for that committee has already said that there would not be any process in 2025. So that's already been pushed back to at least 26 or beyond. And I think the reason that he indicated was that in 25, we have the municipality elections. And as you know, these are municipal concessions. And so He didn't believe that there would be the conditions to have that discussion. So I think it's off the table, at least for 25. On the investments in Europe and the run rate. So I think I gave you the number or certainly for Portugal, that the current proposal is up 50% or to increase by 50%. And so that, let's say, is the number for Portugal. For Spain, we still don't have feedback from the spanish government as to you know we're already capped out in terms of percentage you know there's a maximum investment you can do in spain a new limit hasn't been defined in portugal i can give you a specific number but um but in spain we still have to wait a little bit to to get a better number on what could be the increase in investment there thank you yeah

Thank you, Muriel. The next question comes from the line of George Alonso from Bernstein. Jorge, please go ahead.

Hi, good morning and thank you very much. A couple of questions, please, on my side. Sorry. On the net debt, would you be able to give us some more core about, I mean, what is the amount of tax equity pending to be collected and on the asset rotation, just to understand if there is a temporary effect that could be on the net there, or if the increase in the net that we have seen already in EDP and EDPR level will remain in the coming years due to whatever effects the CapEx and the working capital issues, etc., etc. The other question is on the U.S. offshore capacity. Do you have any, or what is more or less the annual costs in which you incur developing the asset? Just in order to see, I mean, those prices can be delayed or not, but at least what is the cost that you are incurring every day, every year in developing those assets? Thank you very much.

Hi, Jorge. It's Rui here. So on the net debt, maybe I would tell you the following. So if you look at net debt by your end, I believe that it will be around the $17 billion. And that's, give or take, a billion above what we were expecting earlier this year. So what are the main building blocks of that? So first of all, less gross investment. We are talking about, give or take, one billion less of gross investments. We do not expect to close any further transactions of asset rotation this year. So that means that we would have... an impact of around 1, 1.2 billion euros. Then on tax equity capacity, we are, so given that the tax equity comes after the COD of the US project, as we get closer to December CODs, then increases the likelihood of tax equities only being closed into January. We are estimating around the 0.5 billion of tax equity that flows into January. And then between operating cash flow, regulatory receivables that will cash in in the year, I would say 0.2. So basically, those are the building blocks that we are seeing that all in all amount to about 1 billion. And that's why we are targeting the 17 billion by year end. As I just mentioned, so tax equity, it really is a timing and then also asset rotations. that we will not close this year, that we could potentially close beginning of next year. On the offshore, I can also take this one. So just to be clear, we have under ocean winds, we have three projects under development, two in the east coast and one in the west coast. I mean, the development of these projects are not really material. They are mostly related to permitting processes and environmental impact studies, some geotechnical studies, which will obviously manage depending on what is the impact from Trump's presidency. He has been extremely vocal that he would stop offshore in the first stage. We are expecting to get federal permits still for one of the projects, but let's wait and see. The other two, we were not expecting to get any federal permits anyway within the next three, four years. So for the other two, which is the New York and California, basically the development cost is relatively low. I mean, we can follow up afterwards, but I can tell it's not something material and it goes through the JV.

Thank you, Georges. So the next question comes from the line of José Ruiz from Barclays. José, please go ahead.

Good morning and thanks for taking my questions. Just to, first of all, on hydro expectations for 2025, considering that the hydro reserves are increasing, the question is basically, could we have the same hydro production levels as we have had in 2024? And the second question is about the guidance 2024. You said there is an upside risk on the guidance for the 1.1 billion, sorry, 1.3 billion. You have delivered more than 80% of the guidance in the nine months. So I was wondering if that upside risk is very high or you are expecting something negative from in the fourth quarter. You talked very quickly, and sorry, I completely missed this, a write-off at EDPR level of 0.7 billion euros. I guess it's not affecting that guidance. Thanks for all the clarifications.

Sure. So on the hydro 2025 expectations, I mean, normally we assume a P50. I think that's the best guess that anyone can have. You know, We'd love to be able to still predict the El Ninos and La Ninas and neutral. And believe me, we spent a lot of time discussing that. But at the end of the day, probably the best guidance we can give you is that you should expect an average year. Obviously, we are coming into the final months of the year with high hydro levels, which means that we have a robust position to take advantage of prices over the next couple of months. But let's say in terms of average rainfall for the year, you should just expect the average levels. And we don't have any additional degree of trust on additional information that we could guide you to a different place. On the upside risk, no, we have no negative expectation on anything. I think it's just depending on what happens in terms of hydro volumes and in terms of pricing, et cetera. I think what we mentioned was, I mean, first, it would be a non-recurring. It would be an extraordinary risk. But in any case, that's not a decision which has been taken. It's just flagging that that is a possible scenario. And so we just wanted to make sure that there are no misunderstandings about that point. But if there was, it would be an extraordinary and it would be to ensure that we don't put good money after bad, as I think we've said in the past.

Thank you. That's very clear.

Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Jorge Guimarães from GB Capital. Jorge, please go ahead.

Good morning. Thank you very much for taking my question. Actually, two of them are VPR related. The first one is on your reference to the end of the gas sourcing impact. You were mentioning that it will have no more impact for Q4. Can you give us an idea what has been the contribution in the nine months of this gas sourcing for us to calculate the impact of its absence in Q4. This would be the first one. The second one, and on EDPR side, I believe there was a reference in EDPR conference call to a 400 million euro book value of US offshore. I would like to understand if this is at ocean wind level or EDPR level. And the third one is also at EDPR if you can give us some idea about the current TPA prices or IRRs in Brazil for wind and solar. Thank you very much.

So on the first one, maybe me or Vian or Rui can get on that one. I'll just answer the second and third and then come back to you. So on the second one, on the book value for OW, So that's EDPR level 400. So EDP level would be 300. That's total book value exposure, including leases and all the development costs and the financial costs, et cetera. On the third question, in terms of PPA prices in Brazil, I think the answer there is we're not developing additional projects in Brazil at the moment. So, I mean, we did for a while where we had certain PPA prices which were making viable the projects. The prices then went down a lot, as you know, because of the hydro volumes were very high. And therefore, the PPA prices were also not allowing us to take any profitable investment decisions on the projects there. The prices have started to tick back up and start getting closer to sort of high hundreds reais per megawatt hour, sort of that type of level, 200, which I think would already start making the projects viable. But we haven't seen an active market for PPA prices recently in Brazil. I think what we've tried to indicate is that we're seeing the prices go up. So it may be that we get to a level where it starts enabling profitable projects to be FID'd. And on the first question.

So, yeah. Hi, Jorge. So on the first one, maybe just a little bit of... Going back to one, two years ago, if you remember, we have curtailment of some gas that were not being delivered into Iberia and that we had to buy the shortfalls from the market at much higher prices where we had negative impacts in our recurring results. I mean, this year, we basically had very limited type of curtailment, and obviously the gas prices are at a much lower level. So therefore, we actually this year benefited. I mean, all in all, I would say that we are, if anything, over the years, there was an accumulated negative impact. But basically this year, we just recovered from that. I mean, what... I guess your question is what to look for into the numbers into the coming years. And I think that what we have been saying is that if you look to the integrated margin, our business, so let's say the hydro, the gas business, the clients business, that integrated margin that we are currently at around 1.3, 1.4 billion, it should be normalizing over time to 0.9 billion, give or take. So that's really part of the overall integrated margin.

Thank you.

So I think we have here the last question from the line of Arthur Seidman from Morgan Stanley.

Arthur, please go ahead. Thank you for taking my question. So it's a question on the debt evolution. And thanks for the comment that you made earlier on the potential level by the end of the year. I was wondering, more broadly speaking, about FFO to that evolution, as and if profits normalize in 2025 with potentially a bit more normal hydro, given also you gave a bit of an update on the asset rotation trajectory. If the cash inflow is weaker than expected, What can you do to manage the debt evolution? I know you issued a new hybrid earlier in the year. Is there room to issue more of these, or have you already reached maximum capacity? And generally speaking, with the new trajectory that you have in mind, are you comfortable with being above the 19% of FFO2 debt, which I think is the threshold that S&P considers? Thank you very much.

Hi, Arthur. Israel here. So, I mean, we are fully committed to the BBB rating. And as we already said in the call, I mean, we look at 2025. So the consensus for 2025 we're comfortable with. Our guidance for 26 is there and we keep it, which includes as well the 20% FFO net debt. If you just recall my comments, yes, we have some shortfall on the operational cash flow, but really what we have are some timing impacts, namely from tax equity and potentially on the asset rotation side moving beyond the cutoff of 31st of December, but also a reduction in terms of the cross-investment. So at the end, what we always look at is the net investment profile. I think it's also important to highlight that What we have been setting, and Miguel repeated today, is we are seeing a good market out there for asset rotation. So there are buyers, and there are buyers willing to buy quality assets, and the multiples, I think they are fair, adjusting for the fact that you sell, if we start selling more solar, then obviously the EV per megawatt is lower than if we sell wind assets. But the price, we believe it's a fair price. A different discussion is about capital gains. But that cashing flow from the asset rotation, we are expecting it to continue. So that's why, all in all, we look at this 20% FFO net debt target and really keen to keep it. On the question on the hybrids, I mean, we did that. We decided to move, anticipate, and make sure that we strengthen further the balance sheet. We have room to do some more if needed, but not something that we are currently planning.

So just to be clear on the asset rotation, essentially what you're saying is that even though your gains may be lower for 24 and 25, your target on proceeds still holds.

That's correct. So we're still working on maintaining the proceeds. Again, many times, because these are transactions, you don't get to the cutoff date of the 31st of December. But we are not seeing a fundamental change in the volumes. What we stated is that we obviously expect much less contribution from the capital gains for these two years.

Thank you very much.

Thank you, Arthur. So I'll pass now to our CEO for final remarks.

Thank you, Miguel. So just to say, listen, record results from EDP, undisputedly, and on track to deliver at least the guidance that we committed to for this year and comfortable with consensus for next year. I think this is a clear reflection of the strong and stable diversified portfolio. Obviously, we'll have areas that are weaker currently, EDPR, and we'll have areas that are stronger currently in networks and the integrated portfolio. And that's part of, let's say, these cycles. The energy transition will go on and there will be cycles. No one said it was going to be easy. I think we said, in fact, that it was going to be a bumpy ride. It certainly has been over the last couple of weeks. But I think we are and we continue to be very committed to continue to grow the company at these different levels. I think the increase that we see, the potential increase at the demand or the electricity demand of networks, even of renewables, even if at a slower pace, but with good profitable projects. I think that will continue to drive the growth of the company going forward. So that's what we're committed to executing. And I'll probably stop there and I'm sure we'll be talking again soon. Thank you.