Evonik Industries Ag

At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to Christian Kuhlmann, CEO. Please go ahead.

Thanks a lot. Welcome and thanks for being with us today. Since we already published preliminary results three weeks ago, there's only limited news in the key financials, maybe apart from strong free cash flow. So we'll focus on the main drivers and the look ahead. Let me start with my, let's call it, two personal highlights in the results. First, of course, the strong earnings growth, a close to 30% improvement year on year, which stands out quite positively in the chemical space this quarter, I dare say. Second, the fact that Evonik has been the only company in our peer group to pre-release. Both underpins that the main drivers are less so a broad-based economic recovery, but rather some Evonik-specific factors. What were these about? First, we have seen the comeback of specialty additives. There were quite some discussions with you recently about the division. But the start into this year is the first proof point that the business model and our competitive position are very much intact. We felt our prices quite well over the last quarters and have been very disciplined on the cost side too. Now, with the first volumes coming back, the division benefits from its high operating leverage. In the last downturns, Specialty Additives has always proven most resilient in our portfolio. The first quarter finally confirms the high quality of this business. Second, we've seen the expected catch-up in nutrition and care, almost doubling ABTA year-on-year. The price increases from cyanine implemented over the last quarter is now bare fruits. In addition, our strong care portfolio returned to a double-digit ABTA growth track record. It has delivered over the last eight years, only briefly interrupted in the last year. So we have no doubt that this growth will continue. And animal nutrition will continue to benefit, not only from higher prices, but also and all the more from the continued ramp up of cost savings, especially with the completion of the backward integration at our US methionine plant in 2025. Finally, the contingency measures kicked off last year continue to deliver visible results on the bottom line. And the best is still to come. From the end of this year, you will also recognize a ramp up of the 400 million euros from our ebonic tailor-made program. And I already promised you today a very high drop through to the bottom line. Now, after my tiny and brief introduction, over to Michael.

Thanks, Christian, and good morning from my side as well. Also, I will keep it short and focus on the main new KPI for today, the free cash flow. It came in more than 100 million higher versus previous year. Obviously, we benefited from the higher earnings. But in a similar magnitude, we have achieved a lower net working capital outflow. Despite some restocking needs also on our side, we did not let loose on our strict networking capital management. On top, lower tax outflows helped to counter the higher cash out for capex, but being mainly driven by phasing though. For the full year, we continue to expect lower cash out for capex as well as for taxes, and both support the extension of our free cash flow track record. 40% cash conversion year for the year continues to be our short and mid-term aspiration level. After this record short period, apart from me, Christian, over to you again for the output.

Chancellor Michael, with the first quarter, we have laid a solid foundation for the year. For the second quarter, we do see similar operational trends as in the first quarter, still with no broad-based macro recovery in sight. Specialty additives show a solid outlook for the next month. Also, we see the positive market and price momentum in animal nutrition continuing. And performance materials should continue to benefit from the disruptions of global supply chains in the second quarter as well. Earnings will only be held back by some planned but larger maintenances in methionine cross linkers and our C4 chain. All in all, we see the second quarter EBITDA on a similar solid level as in the first quarter. And just between you and me, there is probably more upside than downside. As I have mentioned, there is probably more upside than downside. This means our guidance should be well underpinned, with above one billion of EBITDA in our back after the first six months. Still, for the full year, we stick to our guidance range, simply because our visibility into the second half of this year is still subdued and no macro recovery is visible yet. Therefore, and please forgive us, we prefer to stay conservative. to make it very clear even crystal clear any any macro recovery would result in some additional potential and is not a requirement to reach the guidance we finish just like in march with our current management agenda short term will execute on cash and costs mid-term We continue to drive our portfolio transformation to invest into innovation and sustainability. And with our tailor-made program, we are just about to radically reorganize our structures. All of this will secure earnings growth and a strong cash generation for 2024 and beyond. With that, ladies and gentlemen, Thanks for your interest so far, and now it is time to check your questions.

We now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and 1 on their telephone. You will not want to confirm that you have entered the queue. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and 2. Questionnaires on the phone are requested to use all the answers while asking a question. The first question is from Martin Rudiger with Kepler-Chevreux. Please go ahead.

Yes, good morning, and thanks for taking my questions. I have three, please. Looking at your segments, specialty additives and smart materials, can you talk about the demand patterns in the various end markets, such as automotive, electronics, construction, and so on? Second question, what is your best guess about the impact from the planned shutdowns for methionine, cross-linkers, and C4 chain in the second quarter? Is it in total 50 million or even higher? And the third question, can you please quantify the license income in hydrogen peroxide within smart materials in Q1? It must have been quite significant because you say that ABDA in Q2 in smart materials will be sequentially flat despite slightly better performance in silica, catalyst, and high-performance polymers. Would it be fair to say that this license income was 20 or 30 million impact? Thanks.

Yeah, sorry. It's for me. The first question will go on the performance of our different end markets. Christian will take second and third questions and then go to Mike.

It's a pleasure for me. Good morning. So maybe Let's start with the positives. Here are in particular coatings. What do we see? First of all, it is more and most pronounced in stocking in comparison to last year. You know, we see that the biggest, let's call it from a regional point of view, the biggest bounce back in Asia. So here, we are on our way back on track. Positive for sure personal and home care. It is supported because the recovery here is supported by the falling inflation, which is a positive for consumption. And that is maybe worthwhile to underpin that we see strongest, the strongest demand in our higher value active ingredients, which is probably paying off now. Another positive, animal nutrition. The falling inflation is here worthwhile to mention because the end consumer demand is fostered by this. And on the other side, what we do see is that the meat consumption is coming back, which translates into herds that have started to build up once again. mixed picture so maybe as a second bucket yes there are some concerns on the slowing a little bit chewy slowing automotive production which are still in the room on the other side we have a very good demand in lubricants and in coatings both as you know specialty additives for tires there's um currently in rebound momentum that we do observe. Please forgive me, I've caught a cold. And on the other side, we see overall the demand of PA-12 is still sluggish, weak, but There are some positives, in particular, for example, if we think about the e-vehicles in China here in respect of our cooling lines. Mixed picture also in construction and durable goods. On the one side, we could observe that there is, let's say, the market appears to be buttoned out. And we see some slight recovery in particular in Asia, but you have to take in consideration that the mortgage rates, for example, in the United States and in Europe are still subduing the market in these regions. So, on the other side, If we think about our PU forms in specialty additives, here we do see a good kind of tailwind, whereas in respect of wind, despite that each and everybody is talking about the future of wind energy and each and everybody is claiming that it is needed to enhance investments in this particular industry. Here, the demand could be a little bit stronger. So that is maybe an overview to answer your question. And with this, I hand over to Michael.

Good morning, Martin, from my side. The next two questions. You have asked about the impact of the shutdowns, crosslinker C4, and also, of course, the maintenance shutdown of our methionine plant. So, we have calculated forecasts of roughly 20 million euros for all three, and probably roughly half of it will be dedicated to the methionine shutdown. And then your other question regarding the license income of our HPPO business line. Let me maybe dive a little bit deeper here on the one hand side just to make that clear. It is part of the business model of our business line, but because it is extremely difficult to forecast it, we simply do not forecast it. It was roughly 15 million in Q1. And just to make also very clear, we forecast smart materials still stable quarter over quarter, Q1 to Q2, because on the one hand side, we have the license income for our H2O2 plants. In China, on the other side, we see that silica catalysts and also PA12 will compensate for this license income. So overall, we see smart materials on a stable way going forward. I hope that helps.

Thank you. The next question is from Jonathan Chung with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Hi, thanks. I've got three questions, please. The first one is on your reorganization programs. Could you tell us how much of your EBITDA improvement in this quarter came from your tailor-made program and your animal nutrition operating model adjustment? My second question is on your utilization rate. Can you give us a sense on how much your plant utilization rate has improved in Q1 versus last year? And then my last question is on animal nutrition. So one of your peers announced earlier in the year to separate out the animal nutrition business from the group. And I recall in the past that you said you would not separate that out. Has anything changed in your thinking recently, and do you see scope to expand your animal nutrition beyond methionine? Thank you.

Thank you very much, Jonathan. The first question Michael will take on the effect from the cost savings and re-organization program. Second and third question go to Christian.

All right, good morning, Jonathan, and I'm happy to answer your Yeah, let's call it restructuring questions on animal nutrition and Evonik TaylorMate. With regards to Evonik TaylorMate, we just started, as Christian pointed out in his speech, the program. So in the first quarter, it's actually, it's more tended, yes, we, of course, we are very focused on cost, but that's part of our contingency program, which is still up and running. You remember that's the $250 million program. We have rolled forward from 2023 to 2024. So ETM, there is, I would say, zero impact in the Q1 figures. Animal nutrition, we have mentioned that with the restructuring program, refining restructuring program, growing the business line into a commoditized business, We see a 60 million EBITDA or cost improvement for the full year. So I would say just divide it by four. And then you have your figure. And then I hand over to Christian.

Oh, thanks for that, Michael. The utilization rate you have asked for is definitely on its way to improve. But keep it like this. There is still good room for additional improvement. In respect of, for example, the specialty additives, we have increased the utilization rate as of today by around 5%, but keep it like this. We are on our way to have a high utilization rate, but nevertheless, there is room for improvement, and that is what gives us confidence for this year. Let's keep it like this. Third question about animal nutrition. To let us one message know, we do remain, we do stay put to our strategy, as you are familiar with. Why? We are the only player in this market with a geostrategical positioning where we do have in each and every growth market one world-scale capacity, like in Mobile in the United States, in Antwerp, in Europe, and in Singapore for Asia. That is what we're going to benefit from. And don't forget, that our debottlenecking measures we have started will help to better our cost position once again. And as you could see, observing the methionine market as it is, you could observe that a good amount of our competitors have decided not only to mothball instead of to shut down their capacity. So for us, We are convinced that we are well-positioned and in future times that we will benefit from this business much more than it is as of today, in particular as a cash-generating unit.

Thank you.

The next question is from Sebastian Sarz with Citi. Please go ahead. Yeah, good morning.

Thank you very much for taking my questions, both on nutrition and care, please. The first one is, again, on methionine, and I just wondered whether you could give us an idea how much of a benefit we can expect from the cost savings from the backward integration in the U.S. next year. Are we talking about low double-digit, maybe mid-double-digit? So any color here would be helpful. Second question is on your health care business. Just wondered if you could give us an update on where your mRNA pipeline stands at the moment and when we can expect material contribution to earnings here. Thank you very much.

Okay. First, second question on healthcare and mRNA pipeline goes to Christian. And the first question on the benefit in 2025 goes to Mike after that.

The first question was... Healthcare.

The second question on messenger RNA lipids and our business prospects there.

Because the first was about... Methionine.

Methionine.

Okay, let's do it like this. I jump in, you know, talking about methionine and the backward integration. Our idea is that in future, after we have ramped up the material backup turn backwards integration in mobile in the United States we have a cost position that will be definitely much better than for example landed costs from producers who are trying to import methionine from Asia here in particular from China and you should not forget that if I talk about, when I talk about landed costs, I do mean landed costs before any kind of import taxes. That is our aim and you could bank on my words that we will fulfill this aim, this goal by ramping up the backwards integration of our material cap time capacities in the United States. In total, we have started the project called Janus two years ago. Last year we benefited from it with an amount of 60 million euros. This year we will have additional 40 to 50 million euros and the total amount you will see in 2025 with the rest of these 200 million, so 100 million in addition. That will for sure better our position in the messianic market in respect of our cost positions, name it. Remarkable. Talking about our lipid plant in the United States, which is pretty nicely and well additional financed by subsidies from the American authorities. We are on track. Here we will have a ramp up in 2026. and that translates into the first earnings we will see in 2026. And one thing I can assure you, and that is that our R&D capacities, our collaboration platforms with other companies in the mRNA area are definitely And I even dare say, as you know, I'm conservative, but here it is worthwhile to go a little bit into Rhapsody's, are filled up to the utmost. So that are the first two questions we have got here in Essen, and I've tried to answer them as precisely as possible. Was there a third one?

No. No, thank you very much.

Okay.

The next question is from Chetan Udeshi with JPMorgan. Please go ahead. Yeah, hi, thank you.

I just wanted to follow up on how do you see in general your order book dynamics, visibility? Do you think the visibility is now starting to stretch a little bit, becoming a bit more normal, or are things more patchy? And the Reason for this question is, you know, we've seen a few companies talk about a good JAN and then the order started to weaken throughout Q1. I don't know if that's a phenomenon you have seen in your order book or do you see differently? The second question was, I'm just using methionine as a, let's say, as an example here, but if I look at the Chinese exports of methionine globally, but also to Europe, you know, we've seen a record level of volumes coming through to Europe and globally from China today on methionine. And I guess it's the same for fume silica, probably not that I've looked at the data, but I guess it's the same. My question is, as you think about next two, three, four, five years, do you think there is enough you know logistic capacity for for China to continue to gain higher share globally by shipping more and more or is there some sort of a bottleneck whether it's shipping whether it's it's it's terminals I don't know but just in terms of how feasible is it for for the Chinese to keep gaining share both in Europe and globally? Is there some sort of a bottleneck for that trajectory to slow or even reverse? Thank you.

Thanks, Chetan. I'll give it another try to distribute the questions and my suggestion would be this time that Michael takes the first one on order book dynamics and Christian the second one on the Chinese imports and the logistics and so on and what we see in our markets.

Yeah, good morning, Chetan. Your question regarding volumes, order books, order trends. What we see basically is, yes, we still have a rather short visibility. So the orders are coming in. They are slightly better, actually. The order trends are slightly better, but very, very short term. And also what we see is that the volumes are smaller. So the orders are coming in on a more frequent basis, but with smaller volume. Just to underline that, our visibility is there still rather short term than, as we have mentioned before, we take a very conservative approach there. What we can see is Q2, but as I said, slightly better, or at least bottoming out, depending on business line by business line. With that, I hand over to Christian.

Oh, thanks a lot. Actually, Dan, I've taken my binoculars on to provide you with a long view in respect of the methionine market, and I would tackle it a little bit from a different point. What we do see as of today is that we are facing a more regional-oriented market approach that is fostered for example, by import taxes that is fostered by different, let me say, regional political decisions. For example, if you want to import from Asia or even Europe methionine to the United States, you have to pay an import tax of 30%. In brackets, we do benefit from it because we're the only one having a capacity down there. So that is maybe one of the major, from our point of view, major blockings for the Chinese producers to import methionine across the world. Second, if we talk about capacities, maybe it is of interest to give you a little bit more color here, assuming that we do have a market growth year-on-year by around 3.5%, 4%, maybe between 3% to 4%, which translates into 70,000 tons of market growth. And if you then consider that, for example, Adiseo has decided to close the capacities of 70,000 tons in Europe, that Sumitomo has has published that they have taken the decision to reduce their capacity in two steps, which means here we are going to lose additional 70,000 tons in the market, and that our competitors in Malaysia, Shize, CJ, that they have decided to take 40,000 tons out of the market. I would say by calculating this, by taking this in consideration that in future, in the near future, the market growth in comparison to the market capacity and the capacities which are coming out of the market, it's a closed, it's give or take a wash, it is a drawn. And I guess it is similar, this regional strategy for silica and for the crosslinker business. Here I would say, first of all, it's similar. Second, the higher the quality of your products, for example, in the silica business is, Think about metal ops sites. The better your market position is and the more or the closer you come to, let me say, essential or more commodity-oriented businesses, the tougher your market position will be. And that you should see through the glasses of the regionalization of these particular markets. And there was a third question about Crosslinker, I guess. Crosslinker? I think that was it, Chetan, right?

Yeah, yeah, yeah. I think, you know, that's what – I just used methionine as a sort of, you know, example. But I guess, you know, it's relevant for cross-linkers. It's relevant for your fume silica business. But I think I understand your big picture view on regionalization. Thank you.

Thanks, Satan. We could take the next question then, please.

The next question is from Rikin Patel with BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.

Hi. Thanks for taking my questions. I've got two. Firstly, in your prepared remarks, you mentioned that you see more upside than downside on your Q2 guide. Could you maybe mention which areas in particular you think could drive that upside surprise? And secondly, in care solutions, can you remind us when you expect the bias-affectant part to start up and maybe give us a sense of earnings contribution?

Thank you. Yeah, thanks, Rikim. First question, end markets. Christian will follow up on the upsides and downsides we are seeing into Q2. And second question, I think Michael will take on the bias-affectant startup and impact.

Okay, upside. The most relevant upside I do see as of today is that BVB has made it yesterday, playing in Paris, and now we are in the Champions League final. Now back to Seriousity. Upsides, for sure, specialty additives. Here we do see that they will continue with the continued volume leverage, which translates into a good fill of our order book. Another business with good and attractive upside potential. Why? Prices do rise further, definitely up. Third upside, performance materials. As you know, here we do benefit nicely from the supply chain disruptions about the Zeus channel. And last but not least, our strict cost discipline we do remain and we do stay put too that is for sure a kind of attractive upside potential on the other side you have asked about the downside it goes without saying is kicking sticking to our eyes downside means here that we do still not uh do see any broad-based macro recovery and that is what we have to take in consideration um The downside, as mentioned, are the further maintenance shutdowns in Crosslinker C4 and the sign-in, talking about the roughly 20 million euros we will miss here. So, in a nutshell and overall, we do probably, and I suppose to say we do probably see more upside then downside, and with this, I hand over to Michael.

Yeah, thank you, and good morning, Ricky. So you asked about our bioselective plant in Slovakia, and I'm very happy to assure you that we will have the opening of the plant in the next coming, actually days, I think days, or at least weeks. So it is up and running, it's in time and in budget, And so, as I said, startup is right now. Capacity is filling up, so we will see the first contributions this year. Of course, it is a biosurfactant plant. Of course, it is a rather slow take within this year. The full capacity will be then by end of the year or beginning of next year, so it is planned. We forecast actually a sales potential around, let's say, 100 million euros in midterm. And we take it from there. So maybe we can, because the capacity is really filling up and the orders are filling up extremely fast, maybe we can see another plant in the coming future.

Great. Thanks a lot.

The next question is from J.D. Bantia with Onfield Research. Please go ahead.

Thanks. I want to dig a little bit into the nutrition and care business, but more on the healthcare and the consumer care side. You know, for the last few years, I mean, leaving aside when methionine was doing really well, you know, your margins in this division sort of averaged between 18-20% when methionine does well. But these days, they're doing sort of call it 14, 15%. So I'm curious to understand what is the margin profile for healthcare and consumer care given, especially in consumer care, a lot of your exposure is to the personal care sort of skincare market. So why don't you earn like an average of around 20% in these two businesses? That's my first question. The second is sort of a tied in just to understand whether you're ruling this out completely. You know, are you ruling out, you know, a foray into any adjacent markets like vitamins, for instance, if the assets are available? It's my second question. And then the last question really is just an update on PA-12. You know, can you tell us if the plant is running smoothly now and what is going to be the strategy to introduce volumes into the market you know how is the uptake here given it was super tight and have you already started to sell the upstream polymer as sorry upstream monomer as well as the downstream polymer or are you just selling the downstream polymer right now thanks a lot thanks chetan um i suggest christian start on the first question in on the health part of the nutritional care business and

on the most strategic question here on M&A and vitamins, and Michael will then take the PH web update and your third question.

Let's keep it like this. For us, vitamins is a commoditized business, while the Asians, here in particular the Chinese, are ruling and running the markets. So for us, it is an area of non-interest. because we do focus on our specialty businesses with higher margins and in addition on cash generation, cash generating units and vitamins are not at all fitting for us into one of these two buckets. Second, cash solutions, our expectation is, and they are going to fulfill it because they are pretty well on track, to come well above the 20% margin. Fair to say that over the course of last year, they have not reached this margin because we have suffered from the global economical headwind all around, and the same has sold true for our care solutions business. In healthcare, we do have, no doubt about, let me be here very straight with you, we do have in some areas some, let me say, challenges we will address. There is a lot of beauty in this business line. Think about our lipids and think about our mRNA contributions. But on the other side, yes, there are some challenges, and we are going to address them to you in due course. So that are the three answers to the first two questions of yours. And with that, I hand over to Michael.

Thanks, Christian. And good morning, J.D. Yip. And regarding your PI12 update question, so yes, I can assure you that our plant is now running smoothly, and so we see that, yeah, we can move with that, with the smooth-running plant into now the future. What we have seen in Q1 is that the macro situation, and that's what we have said a couple of times already, the macro situation in smart materials, is still relatively weak and will stay relatively weak also in Q2. However, we see in Q2 some hopeful restructuring. We see some more volumes getting into the market, some more robust outlook. On the one hand side, Asia Automotive and Electronics are running quite nicely regarding PI12. The white goods, and we have mentioned that before a couple of times already, the white goods are still weak. These dishwasher baskets, you might remember, are slowly improving now. These are these last effects from COVID. We still see a relatively mixed regional picture. As I said, Asia is strong, America getting better, Europe is flat year over year, but So we sell in both directions and plant is running.

Right. If I can just ask one follow-up to Christian, just around M&A, could you give us an update regarding your performance materials divestment plan? And then just, you know, on the three core divisions, I mean, historically you've always had very strong positions in your respective, you know, markets. Which are the areas then would you like to upgrade either regionally or portfolio-wise? Because it feels like, you know, when I look at your portfolio and compare it to returns in certain areas like healthcare, consumer care, for instance, you know, there is maybe a need for some M&A. Maybe I'm wrong, but just curious to know what your thoughts are on this topic. Thanks.

About performance materials, it is that the As you know, super absorbance we have signed and we do expect the closing in the incoming next weeks, but for sure in summertime. So for us, it is a done deal. In respect of our C4 chain, we have finalized the carve out. Here we are from a legal point of view, well positioned to start the process. But there's no need for us to have a fire sale or something like this. And if I look around, judging upon the current market environment, it won't be prudent. It won't be prudent for us to start the process right now. So here we will see, we will observe, we'll look after the market and our competitors, and then let's see when is the point of starting this process. We are well prepared. observing scenery, no need for fire sale, and then let's see. As we have done it in the past, we will remain doing it in future to obtain a better one. And then you have asked if I've got you right about M&A tickets in the future. Let me assure you there won't be any big M&A tickets in future for Evonik Industries. We are now focusing on costs, we are focusing on cash, we are focusing on lifting up our businesses with decent and disciplined organic investments in investments in organic growth but we are not not looking around we are not on our search not reaching out for any kind of bigger mna tickets might be that there will be the one or the other very tiny very decent very disciplined one um which we could add to refine the one or the other business but that let's keep it like this. That is what I could imagine if it is outstanding, attractive, but nothing else for the incoming, for sure for the incoming next one to two years. That is for sure. Now we are focusing on cash, on costs, and that is what we have in mind in regard of your question.

Thanks a lot.

Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Christian Kuhlman for closing remarks.

It was a pleasure, ladies and gentlemen, having you today. We, Michael, Tim, the entire crew and myself wish you a great summer and hope to meet you soon in person wherever you are. We will be at your disposal. Thanks a lot and take care.