Experian Plc Ord

Hello, everybody, and welcome to our first half presentation. I'm joined as usual by Lloyd, who will run you through the financials after my initial overview. Also on the call today is Craig Boundy, our Chief Operating Officer, and Craig will join us for the Q&A segment of the call. So let's kick off with the financial highlights from H1. We started the year well with good growth in revenue and benchmark earnings per share. Q2 organic growth was 5%, which took us to 5% for the half. and this compared to the 4% to 5% range we expected for Q2. Total revenue growth at constant exchange rates was also 5%. We've continued to grow well despite the market backdrop. This is due to the strength of our competitive position, the diversity of our portfolio, growth contributions from new products, new verticals, new business wins, and favored client and sector exposures. All regions delivered positively, with B2B growth at 4% and consumer services growth at 6%. North America has been resilient. Latin America, again, performed very well, up double digits and a half. The UK delivered growth overall, but had a good performance in B2B Bureau, and we're pleased with the EMEA and Asia Pacific performance, which is on a much improved trajectory. EBIT progression and a half was 6%, both at constant and actual FX. and constant currency margin was up 20 basis points. When FX is factored in, it was stable. The external environment has developed much as we anticipated at the start of the year. Our full year guidance was set with the current market context in mind. We expect the second half of the year to look much like the first and to land the year in line with our previous expectations. If we turn to the first half highlights, In the U.S., credit conditions are tight, but we haven't seen any material change. Some parts of the market are doing better than others. Tier 1 lenders remain very resilient. We have a strong presence in this segment, and our revenues in this segment grew overall during the half. Other clients, FinTech, for example, are seeing tougher conditions, although this is a broad category, and even within that, we see a wide divergence in activity. The balance of our exposure with excellent clients and product diversity combined with products that continue to see strong growth has meant that our performance has been stable, notwithstanding overall tightening credit conditions and softness in origination volumes. Ascend continues to drive growth across our product portfolio. We've expanded our position in employer services and verifications, and we've seen growth due to the shift to digital in areas like auto, targeting, and health. Consumer services also delivered growth in the back of strong membership and partner solutions performance, which offset marketplace. UK credit trends have been pressured, and overall credit issuance is down. Despite this, our UK B2B business has performed very well, and in particular, our credit business, where we continue our strong run of client wins. In Brazil, we saw strong growth against a fairly modest economic backdrop, New client wins, strong growth in positive data scores and attributes, expansion of our position analytics, and strong growth in power curve all contributed to growth, and we also delivered a very strong performance in consumer services. And we've made a lot of progress in EMEA Asia Pacific with both revenue and margin trajectory showing significant improvement. We continue to make important strategic improvements. We've added to our data assets in most jurisdictions, and this has made a material difference in markets like the UK, for example. We continue to make good progress across decisioning and analytics. PowerCurve has been a strong contributor this half, and the Ascend platform now has over 500 clients globally and with close to half a billion dollars of total contract value. We'll build on this with the continued expansion of our product suite, and this year we've introduced Ascend Fraud and Ascend Model Builder. Work continues to integrate all of our major product platforms, and this will lead to expanded opportunities with clients looking to streamline operations, save costs, and improve decision making. Verifications in the US added to its record count, and we had many new employer services client wins, and we've also started to include consumer permissioned data sets. We continue to make great progress in consumer services, and while growth in the house was driven by subscriptions in North America in particular, We've taken additional important steps to evolve our business and leverage synergies between our B2B and B2C businesses. In this half, we introduced Experian Spark Money, a unique new checking account. Experian Activate you've heard us talk about before. It's linked directly to the Ascend platform. It exposes deeper analytics so that lenders can perform better on our credit marketplace and target audiences more effectively. And its adoption is one of the reasons that Marketplace has outperformed relatively in this credit environment. Insurance has also made very good progress and we've growing confidence that a digital aggregator model will emerge in the US. We continue to invest towards the achievement of our strategic goals and it stands us very well in times like these. It all builds towards the strategic vision we've outlined before. On the B2B side, we aim to bring products to market that are unmatched in our industry, built on superior data, and combining the breadth of our capabilities with advanced technology to solve more customer needs. And this has extended our commercial position and expanded our revenue opportunities. We are investing to integrate all of our major product platforms into one integrated solution. And this will enhance our opportunities in credit, fraud, and identity by taking a more holistic, integrated view of operational processes underpinning client decisions. Ascend Ops, shown at the center of this graphic, is a new capability and it's a critical component of this. It connects the analytical environment and the production environment. The successful execution of this strategy will expand our relationships and embed our capabilities further so the clients are able to consume multiple services easier, faster, and at lower cost. Data flows through all of our platforms so that as demand grows, so too does the demand for data. It also means that clients can consolidate the number of vendors that they have to cover the entire model life cycles. And while it's early days for send-ups, we've seen good traction so far. In consumer services, 178 million free members means we now have distribution platforms at scale. We've started to widen the range of services we offer and address substantial new adjacent markets, like insurance in the US and payments in Brazil. We also expect to aggregate and scale new data sets through a value exchange, which helps our members to save time and money. And there are many ways we can help both our B2B clients and consumers, and this interplay is a central feature of our strategy. So let's now turn to the H1 regional performance, starting with North America, where organic revenue growth was 4%. Core CI and BI grew by 2% when mortgage was excluded. This is a resilient performance, and we continue to navigate the environment well. Credit tightening has happened, as we expect it to, but performance across market segments is not uniform. Ascend performed well and is a great example of how we have built products that continue to grow, notwithstanding the underlying credit market conditions. For example, in H1, we implemented Ascend marketing with a major client. The revenues for this have started to flow and should build in H2. It's been a great win for us, enabled by the combination of capabilities across multiple business units, particularly our credit business units and our targeting business units. Areas like clarity are another example. It also delivered well on the half. Customers in this segment continue to lend and have started to adopt machine learning and AI-based solutions, and we've introduced new analytics and model-building products to support them. Added to this is the progress we've made in income and employment verifications. where we are on track to deliver US revenues in the region of over $190 million this financial year. The expanded record count has led to client wins for Experian Verify. Taken together, these investments across our CI, BI, and decisioning activities have mitigated the effects of current credit conditions. Targeting, auto, and health all delivered strong rates of growth. In auto, new vehicle sales have continued to rise Consumers continue to spend and there is inventory oversupply. Clients have returned to active marketing as they look for buyers as inventory is building. And our growth has come from both the marketing and credit product lines. Newer products like Experian Marketing Engine have seen good growth as a result. At the heart of our targeting business is digital identity, which is central to audience targeting and campaign measurement in connected TV. We've made very good progress in digital, which has offset ongoing weakness in retail channels, some of which is linked to the current environment. Health has continued to perform well. Our growth was broad-based across the portfolio, reflecting mostly new business wins and volume expansion across patient access, collections, and digital front door. We continue to see strong industry trends around reducing costs, enhancing revenue capture, and improving patient experiences. And this is what continues to drive growth in our product seat. And we're excited about the potential to continue to scale our investments in these areas. Consumer services in North America delivered organic revenue growth of 4%, and our free member base is now at 67 million. We've added new value into premium through features like Bill Fixer, which helps people to save money on their household bills, and is built into the premium offer. Adding value in this way has helped sustain strong growth and premium revenues, and we have a healthy new product roadmap to sustain this. Partner Solutions also had a very good first half. We've had good client wins, and for example, a large tier one financial institution will soon move their embedded program over to Experian. Credit marketplace was soft, but we've outperformed relatively, and more lenders have adopted Experian Activate, because it helps consumers to improve their approval odds for credit, drives up conversion rates, and improves our share of available credit supply. We also reached a key milestone for our insurance marketplace where we recently launched the first direct carrier to our agency model. This will substantially increase insurance offer availability and enhance the consumer experience. And we're very excited to have launched Experian Smart Money. It's a new Experian digital checking account which helps people to build credit without going into debt and so will bring new consumers into the financial system. It will also help to drive engagement and bring new consumer permission data assets to Experian. And while it's still early days, we're very encouraged with the initial adoption rate. So to summarize, we've progressed a lot in consumer services and we're very excited about the opportunities ahead of us. Moving to Latin America, which is going to have another very strong year, both in Brazil and Spanish Latin America. H1 organic revenue growth was 11%, and margins again moved forward, helped by margin expansion in consumer services. Brazil has significant structural growth potential, and the shape of our business is clearly evolving. On the B2B side, growth has come from several areas. Examples include new positive data scores and attributes, growth in software platforms and analytics, and new capabilities, for example, in our agri-finance vertical. Software platforms, particularly PowerCurve, was really strong in this house, in part because we increasingly sell these as part of an integrated data fraud and credit decision product. And we've seen great success with these integrated solutions on the back of our expansion of our fraud capabilities in recent years. The expanded breadth of our capabilities has opened up new spend pools with existing clients and expanded our addressable market. New to market products like Ascend and others will enhance this position further. And just as exciting is the development of consumer services, which delivered growth of 32% in the half, helped by a strong contribution from Limp Anomo. We've built our consumer platform primarily organically, but lately we've added inorganic investments, and we are already one of the biggest platforms for consumer financial needs in Brazil. eWallet brings together payment capabilities where our 84 million members can consolidate their monthly bills and pay them in one go, which drives greater engagement, and we have substantial room for further growth. Also worth noting is the early traction we have in consumer permission data. Over 1 million consumers have contributed data to SRASA to improve their scores, and we have significant potential to scale this further. We used this slide recently in a presentation that we gave at a Barclays conference, and it bears repeating here because it summarizes our position well. And it encapsulates how we have extended our market lead and the excellent progress we've made. So for example, we have a very broad product portfolio with high client recognition. We've successfully shifted the strategic position of the business from being primarily a supplier of data to a trusted partner supplying critical solutions across the customer lifecycle. We're recognized as one of the most innovative companies in Brazil and one of the best companies to work for. Our consumer app reaches an audience comparable to or ahead of leading consumer financial brands, and we are a top of mind brand significantly ahead of our industry peers. We built on these strong foundations strategically through the addition of world-class B2B products and massive consumer audience that we've established. The UK delivered organic revenue growth of 1% The picture here, particularly in B2B, is worth highlighting, as there is a big disconnect in the correlation between our revenue performance and credit volume trends in the market, particularly in our CI business line. And this is primarily driven by new business wins across financial services, public sector, and telco. It's a very good example of our strategy working. We also have a strong program of new product releases, and these, combined with the investments that we've made to add to our data superiority, provide us with the confidence that we can continue to outperform the market. Several leading UK banks are now in proof of concept with income verification, and we've seen good growth in areas like financial crime. These are either completely new or relatively new focus areas for us, so we expect these to add to our growth opportunities. In consumer services, credit supply is still constrained, which did affect our performance. Premium subscriptions have, however, started to stabilize, helped by the new credit lock feature. We will introduce a series of new features in coming months to enhance the consumer experience and add more personalized features, and we fully expect this part of the business to accrue to our growth in the future. Progress in EMEA Asia Pacific has been very good, with some very good performances across key geographies. Australia is one to call out. It's sustained strong performances over several years. Italy, India also delivered strong performance, but we really saw good results across the whole region. We have many new initiatives in the region which have helped, and new product contributions have started to increase as a proportion of revenues. Examples include new scores and attributes, improvements to our power growth suite, which helps to deliver a very good performance and decisioning in this half. We also intend to expand SEND products in key markets and coming ones, which will add to the opportunities that we have here. So it's been very good progress in EMEA Asia Pacific. We have more to do to sustain this, but we're very encouraged by the early signs. And with that, I'm going to hand over to Lloyd for the financials.

Thanks, Brian, and good morning, everyone. As you've seen from Brian, we achieved strong strategic progress in the first half, delivering financial results in line with our expectations. Organic revenue growth in Q2 was good and consistent with Q1 at 5%, taking us to 5% organic and total revenue growth for the half. With FX at 1% tailwind, growth at actual rates was 6%. We delivered good benchmark EBIT growth of 6% at both constant and actual rates. EBIT margins were up 20 basis points at constant FX rates and in line with the prior year at actual rates. EBIT growth translated to EPS growth of 8% at both constant and actual rates, thanks to strong discipline in managing our interest rate fixing program and some tax phasing. Operating cash flow conversion was 77%, whilst return on capital employed increased strongly to 16.8%, up from 15.8% for the same period last year. We ended the half in a strong financial position with net debt to EBITDA leveraged at 1.8 times. And we announced a first interim dividend of 18 cents per share, up 6% on the prior year. So turning now to the regional growths for the quarter, North America sustained 4% of revenue growth in the second quarter, taking growth to 4% for the half. Within the Bureau, excluding mortgage, growth was 2% in line with Q1. Underlying credit trends were consistent with the first quarter overall and remained tight, continuing the trends we've seen for the last year. The diversity of our client mix supported growth as broad-based relationships from our larger banking clients offset pockets of weakness in more subprime-focused lenders. Our low-income lending proposition, Clarity Services, continued to grow well in a period of tighter mainstream lending supply, and Verifications and Employer Services had another great quarter of progress, with new client wins and, as records hit, 52 million. With another great year of progress underway, we expect our verification and employer services business to deliver revenue this year of over $190 million, which is growth of around 20% for the year as a whole. Our market-leading Ascend suite continues to expand and achieve another quarter of double-digit growth, as Ascend Ops and additional modules gain traction in the market. Mortgage revenue was down 3% in Q2 on volume, down 30%. The difference between revenue and volume growth representing the FICO pricing benefit we've mentioned previously. And we expect mortgage revenue to remain modestly down in the second half. Q2 saw continued strong growth in automotive as new vehicle sales continued to rise and inventory supply recovery led to increasing marketing activity. In targeting, growth in Q2 of 5% reflected slow growth across our retail channels, and growth across other digital channels continued to perform well, particularly within digital activation and identity management. Health delivered another good quarter, with growth across all key product lines and against a relatively stronger quarter in the prior year. Decision analytics delivered consistent growth of 3% for the half, reflecting phasing of client activity in the current and prior years. North America consumer services delivered 5% growth in Q2, and our subscription business again demonstrated its strong counter-cyclical nature, strengthening to grow 9% in the quarter and 7% for the half. Marketplace reflected tighter credit supply, which reduced lending availability to consumers, and matching capabilities within Experian Activate helped navigate tighter lending availability as clients have been able to reach their target consumers more accurately. Latin America continues to grow well, up 10% for the quarter. Positive data continues to provide strong underlying structural growth trends. And within the quarter, as usual, there was some deal phasing within the Bureau, with a number of deals signed early in Q3. Consumer services in Latin America continue to scale very positively in Q2, with another great performance from Olympanomi debt renegotiation platform. a growing contribution from premium subscription services, and rapid growth across our Pagoblos payment platforms. The UK and Ireland region growth improved in Q2, up 2% organically. Growth in the Bureau improved to 6% in the second quarter, as we continued to win sizable new business deals, and there was strong demand for affordability products. Growth in decision analytics stepped up in Q2, following good growth within our identity and fraud propositions. Consumer services declined 5% in Q2. The tightening of lending criteria and reduction in product in market was reflected in marketplace, which declined 10% in the half. Our EMEA and Asia Pacific business again performed well, delivering another quarter of 8% organic growth. We made good progress through the year, particularly in the decisioning segment, where we grew 25% in the second quarter, following a number of deals across a number of markets. Our performance across the Bureau in Southern Europe and India also contributed to growth. Turning now to EBIT margin, as you can see from the chart, we delivered in line with our EBIT margin guidance with plus 20 basis points of expansion, a constant currency, and stable at actual rates. We continue to invest in our strategic priorities with the expansion and rollout of Ascend propositions and the development of Ascend Ops. as well as investing in our employee services and verification proposition in both North America and the UK&I. We also launched the experience Smart Money within North America Consumer Services and further developed our marketplace insurance proposition through the addition of new providers. As a reminder, we also continue to deliver our global technology transformation within our normal financial metrics. Turning now to EPS, where we delivered growth of 8% on an actual and constant FX basis. We delivered 6% benchmark EBIT growth from continuing operations. Our interest expense increased modestly to $68 million, despite the large increase in market rates, thanks to our forward rate fixing program, meaning that the average interest rate on net debt was broadly stable at around 3%. And the tax rate was 25.1%, lower than the prior year due to phasing, and we continue to expect the tax rate to be within the 26% to 27% range for the full year. Taking a look at our usual reconciliation to statutory results, our benchmark profit before tax grew 6% at constant rates and 6% at actual rates, driven by good revenue growth delivery and modest margin expansion. Acquisition-related expenses fell 8 million. The increase in fair value Contingent consideration payable on prior acquisitions was $24 million, and this was again driven by our employer services and verification business in North America, reflecting its continuing strong performance. We incurred no restriction-relating costs in the period. The prior year charge related to the restructuring activities in EMEA and Asia Pacific. Statute of PBT before non-cash items was up 18%. Amortization of acquisition intangibles was broadly flat at $95 million. And there were no impairment charges in the period, the prior year charge being related to the EMEA business. The credit on non-cash financing remeasurements was driven principally by further gains on interest rate hedging. And that all leads to statutory profit before tax of $763 million. As you've seen, we've continued to be disciplined with our capital allocation. And as you can see from the top chart, over the past five years, our net debt has been stable. And we ended the half with net debt to EBITDA of 1.8 times, which is below our long-term guidance of 2 to 2.5 times. We've tightly managed our interest costs, fixing large portions of our net debt at low interest rates, which has kept our average rate at around 3%. And over half our current debt is fixed for the next six years. And our interest guidance remains unchanged for the year at $125 to $130 million, broadly in line with FY23. Turning now to cash flow, nominal cash flow for the half was $711 million with conversion at 77%. As you can see from the top chart here, historically, if you exclude the pandemic periods, our cash flow is in line with our history and weighted to the second half due to the timing of payments related to employee incentives. Our guidance on cash flow for the full year remains unchanged, and we expect to be over 90% conversion. As we signal back in May, our return on capital employed is very strong, at 16.8%, the highest in the last five years, and reflecting our disciplined approach to capital management. So turning now to FY24 modeling considerations, which relate to our ongoing activities. We've again delivered on our financial guidance in the half despite a variable economic backdrop. And accordingly, all areas of our guidance remain unchanged. As a reminder, we expect 4% to 6% organic revenue growth for the full year. We expect to deliver modest margin progression at constant currency. We continue to expect FX to add between 0% and 1% to both revenue and EBIT growth. We expect net interest for the year to be between $125 and $130 million. Benchmark tax rate is expected to be between 26% and 27%, reflecting changes in the UK corporation tax rate. The weighted average number of shares is expected to be in the region of $914 million for the year. And CapEx is expected to be around 9% of revenue, with cash flow conversion to be over 90%. And we have a share buyback program of up to $150 million to be completed by June 2024. With that, I'll hand you back to Brian. Well, thanks, Lloyd.

So in closing, it's been a very positive start to H1 with good revenue and earnings progression. Over a number of years, we've invested to diversify and innovate in our business to position ourselves in higher value opportunities. This has strengthened our portfolio and mixed exposures. Even compared to previous downturns, we are less correlated with credit origination volumes than historically. Our strategy is working, and we have grown and grown shares as a result. And we'll continue to address the market opportunities through our mix of superior data, unique products, breadth of capability, and through extraction of synergies across B2B and B2C. And this, plus our balance sheet strength, puts us in a very strong position as we look ahead. So in spite of the testing environment, we expect to have a good year and a year in line with our previous guidance. Now with that, I'm gonna now hand you back to the operator and we'll move to your questions for which we will be joined by Craig Bandy. Operator, over to you.

Thank you. To ask a question, you will need to press star one and one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one and one again. Please stand by. We will now go to your first question. And your first question comes from the line of Andrew Ripper from Libram. Please go ahead.

Yeah, morning everybody. Well done on the results. It's a good performance. Just a couple from me, if that's okay. I wanted to start with LATAM. The organic growth rate slowed down a little bit in the second quarter, but Lloyd, I think in your commentary, You mentioned there have been some phasing of wins with some new contracts coming in at the beginning of Q3. I wonder if you can give us a sense of the short-term outlook for LATAM growth for Q3 and Q4 and also where the interest rates have started to come off a little bit. Is that a factor at all or not relevant in terms of the momentum that you're seeing in the businesses?

Great. Hi, Andrew. Thanks for the questions. I'll hand over to Lloyd just to give you a bit of detail on LATAM. I don't think we see any big change there. Just a reminder, it's still double-digit growth in the quarter, so very good performance. Lloyd, do you want to elaborate just on some of the splits there?

Yeah, I think you saw a very strong performance in consumer services. I think that business continues to go from strength to strength, and in terms of outlook, we think the consumer business in LATAM will be over $210 million. for the full year, which is, you look back just a few years, have been a really strong performance and continues to grow well. Inside B2B, again, continued good performance. Some deal phasing, we expect that to strengthen back again in Q3 on those that we signed in early October. So probably expect the second half to be in line or slightly ahead of the first half.

And Andrew, on the interest rate point, I don't think at this stage we expect that to make a difference in the short term.

Okay, thank you. And then the second question, there's a really good performance in the UK in the second quarter in the Bureau business. I just wonder if you could say a little bit more about the work that you've won. And is that a case of... gaining share of wallet or have you been winning work from some of the other UK players?

Yeah, Andrew, I think it's probably really, I mean, we had a really good Q2, but if you look at the two quarters together, actually the business has done very well. And, you know, in a market where credit is contracting, I think it sort of illustrates how well we are doing. I think we've been talking for a number of years now about how we've been improving the business, particularly on the data superiority side. And we absolutely believe that we have the best in class data in the marketplace. And I think it's showing through in a lot of client wins. We've seen really good progress in financial services, other sectors like telco now starting to sort of tax some of the utility areas. And it's, you know, I think you don't really need to do too much work to look across at some of the other results that are published to show that we're, you know, outperforming and it is share of wallet because, you know, the, Like for like business, obviously, in the market is not increasing year on year right now. You know, we still see a weaker credit issuance market. So, I mean, that's really down to that. But it's also down to not just on the data side, but also the strategy really is around data plus all of the additional products, which we have had a very long track record of success in the UK on. But it's really bringing all of that together and solving more and more more and more issues for our clients in a holistic way.

Thank you. Just one final one very quickly for Lloyd. Lloyd, appreciate the cash flow guidance and the seasonality of cash flow. Just on the working capital, the increase in the first half was quite a bit more relative to revenue growth than what we've seen in the last couple of six-month performances. Is there anything particular that lies behind that?

I think if you're looking at the balance sheet for that, Andrew, one of the things you have to factor in is the US dollar at the balance sheet date on the close of the half year last year was very strong. So if you're squeezing between the balance sheets, that'll give you an outcome. If you look at just cash conversion, as I mentioned, we're broadly in line with where we would expect to be in the first half. The period ended over a weekend, so you often get a lot of receivables come in on the last day of the month, and I think we've mentioned that before. So no change. Expect to be well above 90% for the year as well.

Thanks for your answers, guys.

Thanks, Andrew. Thank you.

Thank you. We will now go to your next question. And your next question comes from the line of, Kelsey Hsu from Autonomous. Please go ahead.

Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I have three questions. So the first one is, you know, in North America, could you talk just a little bit more about your revenue performance across different client segments? This is in relation to what TransUnion has talked about, which is they're seeing significant slowdown in their September and early October revenue trends. I don't think or I'm not sure this is the same trend you're seeing, but would love to get more colors around the revenue exposure there. My second question is on consumer services in North America. We've been seeing pickups in premium subscription. Is it fair to assume that this trend will continue since we're in an environment where lenders will continue to pull back on the supply side and consumers are searching for incremental ways to access credits? And then just lastly on income employment verification services, you've mentioned that you've added consumer permission data capabilities. I was wondering if you could give us a little bit more colors on how that works and how this fits into your overall portfolio with instant verification and manual verification. Thanks so much.

Great. Thank you. So three questions there. I think the deal with the second one first is on consumer service subscriptions because I think it's relatively easy to answer. I think this is a trend that we talked about pretty much at every results announcement for the last year because we sort of expected subscriptions to pick up. It always does. It's counter-cyclical. I think we have three very significant reference points for that now, GFC, COVID, and this period of credit tightening. Yes, I think is the answer. We expect that to continue to perform well this year. And I think that gives us a good balance of growth in the portfolio. In terms of revenue performance in North America, I think as we reference, you're seeing overall the market is credit conditions have been tightened, but you are seeing quite different performances across different sectors. FinTech, I think, has been impacted more materially. Large banks, as we can see from their results, are actually doing very well. Within that, we are actually expanding our share of business with some of those segments as well. So I think that gives you an overall picture of a difficult market, but performing very differently across some of the different segments. I think on the income and employment services, maybe we can just invite Craig to comment on that point around the data contribution.

yes thank you um good morning so we have a range of ways of accessing data into the verifications products and one of them is for the consumer to contribute their own data into that that would work in a sort of similar way than that experian boost operates by allowing them to basically connect a provider either their payroll provider or their employer or indeed their own bank account and add that information into the journey so all of this about continuing to strengthen the capability we have there in our instant verification. Hope that helps.

Super helpful. Thanks so much.

Thank you.

Thank you. We will now go to your next question. And your next question comes from the line of Simona Sali from Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Good morning gentlemen and thanks for taking my questions. I have three and I will take one by one. So it sounds like for the second half you should be on track for a continuation of the trends you have reported in H1, but would you expect any material difference between Q3 and Q4 and in this context is there any key factor we should keep in mind? Thanks.

Hi, Simona. We're sitting here today, we're halfway through Q3. Q3 looks a lot like Q2, which in turn looks a lot like Q1. I think that tells you across our business, it's very stable. I think crossing to Q4, very similar. Obviously, it's a new financial year for a lot of lenders. Let's see what that brings. But sitting here today, second half as a whole looks a lot like the first half.

Thank you. And the second question is if you can please provide a little bit more color around the growth trends that you have experienced in Q2 and also how they evolved so far halfway through Q3 for the legacy volume-driven CRE bureau and marketplace in North America.

I think as Brian mentioned, if you look inside the Bureau, we've got a very diverse client set. So we provide not just data but analytical tools, an ever-increasing share of revenue from Ascend and the related tooling around that, the Clarity Bureau within that as well. It's quite a broad and diverse sector, and as you've seen, very stable across that, across the first and second quarter. And that really shows the breadth of things that we do for our clients and the number of clients that we do it for. So nothing really to add, just very stable.

And then on the marketplace? I think the second part of your question, Simone, was on the marketplace in North America?

That's correct, yes.

Yeah, I think we've always pointed to when lending conditions get tighter, clearly there are slightly less lending availability on credit marketplaces. So we saw a slightly higher decline in marketplace revenue in the second quarter on the first quarter. That was more than offset by the counter-cyclical nature that we see in the subscription business that Brian mentioned a few minutes ago. So that's a business that responds to lending criteria in both directions. So when things ease, we expect that to come back quite quickly.

Thank you. And the last question from my side is regarding capital allocation. So as you mentioned, in H1, you are at 1.8, which is below your leverage target of 2.5. And even if I keep in mind that you're going to have 150 million of share buyback overall for the fiscal year, you're going to be materially below the lower end of your leverage range. So how should we think about it? Does that leave scope for incremental share buyback? Thanks.

Hi, Samaya. I think we've announced the share buyback for this year. I think this is a good time for us to have financial flexibility. We're seeing after... The rise in interest rates a year or so ago, we're starting to see now valuations get more realistic in some of our markets. So it's a good time for us to have that flexibility. So as we've always said, we're pretty disciplined with capital management. If over time we find ourselves inefficiently financed, then we'd look to return capital to shareholders in terms of a buyback. But just now we see good opportunities to deploy capital for good returns. So that's going to be our focus.

Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. We will now go to your next question. And your next question comes from the line of Harry Martin from Bernstein. Please go ahead.

Hi. Yeah, good morning, everyone. I've got two questions, please. The first one on the premium subscription growth. I wondered if you could talk a little bit about how margin accretive that growth is. And then also if you have any sense on members who've signed up and upgraded accounts to a premium subscription in the last few years, how long they would tend to stay as a paid subscription member before reverting back to a free member there. And then, yeah, the second question on the marketplace is, You had some quite encouraging commentary on insurance, but I wanted to ask about the credit marketplace. And when I compared the experience site to Credit Karma or other peers, it seems to be in super premium cards like Amex or Chase where they seem to have more offers. So I wondered if there's any difference in the economics of your platform or why the sort of the focus of the growth of the marketplace in the first instance has been to grow elsewhere. Any color on there would be really useful. Thank you.

Yeah, thanks for the questions. And maybe we'll deal with the second one first. I think the first point to make is that our marketplace is actually outperforming the market and outperforming Credit Karma. And we did see that your report in terms of the number of offers. I think there's a lot of detail that we'd have to go through with you because actually We believe that there are a lot of premium offers on our marketplace and I think that there are some gaps in your data. So it may well be that it's a good idea for us to sit you down and take you through that. But we don't see any significant difference. There clearly are differences between the respective focus of the customer groups in each of the platforms. But in terms of the panel, we have a very broad panel and a lot of overlap. So I think that's probably one to follow up on. And then maybe Lloyd, if we can go on to the premium side.

Yeah, just on the lender panel, of course, the way that it works, because we target offers, not everybody can see every panel member. So it's much broader than any individual would see. Just on subscription and the margins, we think of this as a single relationship with a consumer. So when we acquire a consumer into a membership relationship, it might be free and over their lifetime they may spend periods that they're in a premium subscription. So we think of it as an integrated proposition, not separately. Most of our acquisition into the subscription base comes from a free member. So we don't really think of it as a separate business in that way, Harry. It's really integrated. And of course, over time, as we expand the number of members, as we improve the overall engagement, then more of our activation costs moves down the funnel from top of funnel to lower funnel. And of course, that's why over the long run, an engaged consumer platform is very profitable and very margin accretive. So that's the progress that we're making in that business.

And then if I could just follow up on that one, I mean, the pickup in premium subscribers in the last 12 months related to the value of those products in a tougher credit environment, how sticky do you think those subscriptions can be?

So I think if you go back, probably the best way thing to do is if you look back at previous periods where we've had an inflow in the downturn, COVID is probably the The most recent one, you saw that there was a strong inflow, a counter-cyclical inflow, if you like. And then what you see is that inflows over about a year, and then you have a couple of years where you have that higher base over which you have to grow. So we continue to grow, but it was tougher to grow on top of it when you get to the other side of it. But that, of course, is the period when you see things like marketplace come back and take a lot of growth. So you have to think of this as an integrated business that's very resilient in periods of strain, but offers then a lot of leverage at the time when you see origination activity return. Thanks very much. Thanks, Ari.

Thank you.

Thank you. We'll now go to the next question. And your next question comes from the line of Andy Grobner from BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.

Hi, good morning. Just two from me, if I may. The first one, just going back to consumer, you mentioned that you'd won a major client within lead generation. I just wondered kind of how close do you think you are to the tipping point in that insurance lead generation marketplace, and kind of the longer-term prospects that could come from that. And then secondly, again, new product, but verification in the UK seems to be making very good progress. Can you talk through the end market opportunity set here in the UK and how that would compare with the US? Thank you very much.

Yeah, okay, so thanks, Sandy. So on the consumer one, I'll take that. Maybe I'll hand over to Craig for the verifications one. On the consumer one, I think we expect the insurance category to grow really strongly this year. As you mentioned in the release, I think we continue to build our panel and take in quite a significant step in that direct insurers actually now come onto the panel. So I think that really in the next sort of six to 12 months, we'll know how that's playing out. But I think we're really encouraged by what we see, and I think we believe that we will now see this market move quite significantly. We'll learn a lot, I think, in the next 12 months, but some very positive steps taken this year, and good growth in the insurance vertical, notwithstanding the fact that we've only just really announced the extension to that panel. Craig, do you want to jump in on the verifications?

Yeah, I mean, verifications in the UK, as you said, is early at one level, but we've done an excellent job building the asset of data that we need to fuel the propositions and make the analytics work and help the lending institutions with whom we have such excellent relationships start to deploy it. So we think that's a really interesting growth opportunity for us in the coming quarter. You see things like affordability progressively becoming more of how underwriting takes place and so it's a good time for us to be starting those conversations with many of the partners.

Could I just follow up on that? Do you see this as incremental to your product suite in the UK or as in the UK, kind of a big standalone revenue stream?

I think the way that we work you know, with many of the clients is, as we do all over the world, is in a set of integrated propositions. So we help them, as Brian said earlier, solve problems and issues and opportunities that they have in their businesses. And so I think this will be added in alongside other capabilities that we have and form part of overall relationships and propositions we have for clients.

Okay, excellent. Thank you very much.

Thank you.

Thank you. We will now go to the next question. And your next question comes from the line of Rory McKenzie from UBS. Please go ahead.

Good morning, all. It's Rory here. Notwithstanding Lloyd's comment that you see it as an integrated unit, if we do try and exclude the growing subscription revenues in North America's consumer, it looks like the average revenue has three memberships. was down quite a bit year over year in H1, maybe down 12% or so. So the first question is, is that a fair estimate for the reduction in marketplace revenues? And the second question is, can you talk a bit more broadly and longer term about how you see monetization of that membership base evolving? And then finally, I wanted to ask about the U.S. market B2B. With the current redistribution of the lending landscapes, Has that changed your ambition at all on how far you could roll out the SaaS product range into those smaller self-serve clients?

Thank you. I'll maybe take the marketplace question. So I think the answer is no, Rory. I'm happy to help you with the numbers offline. So marketplace in North America in Q1 was down 4%, and in Q2 it was down 7%. So pretty much in line with... what you would expect given tighter lending conditions. And equally, membership went from 6% growth to 9% growth. We had good growth in our partner solutions business across the half, actually. So I think, as I mentioned earlier, we view this as a set of integrated propositions with an enduring relationship with consumers. Over time, we get to help them and As I said, as the things we can do gets broader, we'll move into auto insurance expansion and other areas, our activation activity moves down the funnel. So lifetime value we think will expand and cost of activation reduces. So that gives you the long-term financial model, I think.

Brian, let me ask you. Can I just get... Can you just go over your second question again, I think, about the U.S. B2B market and sort of redistribution? What was the big one?

Just, I guess, how the lending is concentrating in the Tier 1 to Tier 2 institutions. I know in the past you've talked about having ambitions to kind of broaden your penetration of the much smaller parts of the landscape. I wonder if that's changed at all given the shakeout we've seen and are seeing at the

I don't think you can, first of all, I think in the U.S., tier one have a very big market share and have had for quite some time. There are, we think, about 3,500 lending institutions in the U.S., a very big market. So inevitably, year for year, you're going to see some segments win, some segments lose, some shakeouts here and there. I think the overall level of innovation in the marketplace will continue. So I don't really think that landscape is going to change dramatically. As we said earlier, we have a very broad spread of business. We have a very strong position in tier one. We also have a very strong position in fintech and small and community and regional banks. We do have opportunities across the piece. So I don't know if there's a sort of, a big takeaway from, you know, what's happening in, you know, in a one sort of 12-month period. I think the market's pretty dynamic and will continue to be over the longer term.

And Rory, if I just add, you know, take Ascend as an example. We've got around 80 clients on Ascend in North America. As Brian just mentioned, there's not far off 4,000 financial institutions in the U.S. So that's a very big, broad market for us to take a as one example too.

I don't know, Craig, do you want to jump in on this one? Anything to add?

I mean, I think that's a good way to categorize it. I mean, there's a very large set of lenders who at different times tighten and loosen their credit policies, but there's still a lot of different organizations for us to work with, and we have a good set of propositions for all of them. So I think that's a good way to think about it.

That's great. Thank you. Great. Thank you.

Thank you. We will now go to your next question. And your next question comes from the line of Arthur Truslove from Citi. Please go ahead.

Thanks very much, everyone. A few from me, if I may. The first question was, for the group as a whole, the consumer business margin went up and the B2B margin went down. I was just wondering if you could comment on how both of those things happened and what drove them. Second question, when you think about the performance of the Bureau outside of mortgage, clearly very stable, Q2 over Q1, are you able to give us an idea of the contribution of pricing within that organic growth and perhaps how that's evolved relative to previous years in a more inflationary environment? And then third question from me, just on the verification side, if I understand correctly, you have an employer services business, which helps employers with compliance and documents and all that kind of thing, and the verification business as well. Of the 190 million of revenue roughly that you're expecting, how much of that are you expecting to be on the employer services side? and how much you're expecting to be on the verification side. Thank you.

Okay, I'll take a few. Let's maybe start on the last one. Verification as an employee service, it's a pretty integrated business. Obviously, we get our data and a lot of our exclusive records from the employee service business. We don't disclose the split, but both grew very strongly during the period, and that's been true throughout this year where we continue to take strong elements of share against a market backdrop in that market where a lot of it is mortgage-related verifications that is quite slow. So 20% growth, we think, for the full year across that business combines great performance. Bureau outside mortgage pricing, no real difference in pricing contribution in this period than previously. Most of our The way that we sell is mostly around expanding propositions and relationships into broader product sets. So no real difference in pricing stance. And then on margin, I think it's easier to look at margin in the full year rather than the half. If you look back, often you see the consumer margin is stronger in the first half than the second half if you just look back. But on an upward trend, I think that's helpful to see. You've seen over the last four or five years as we've been growing the consumer business, it's been growing quite nicely. Within the B2B business, obviously mix plays a part. We're in a period of tighter lending supply that we've been in for the last year. You see some of the volumetric sides of the business a little weaker, some of our new growing businesses, so there's a mix effect there, but all as we guide it, so very much in line with our modest margin progression for the group in the half, and we'll be exactly there in the full year as well.

Thank you very much. Thanks, Arthur.

Thank you.

Thank you. We'll now take the next question. And the question comes from the line of James Rose from Barclays. Please go ahead.

Hi there, morning. I've just got one, please. On marketplace in the US, so despite revenue slowing in the second quarter, what's been your ability to onboard new partners during the period and during the half? Would you say that's on track or behind or ahead of your expectations despite the tighter lending standards or tighter customer acquisition budgets there's probably been?

Well, thanks, Jen. I don't think that there's been any real impact in the quarter specifically. I think over quite a long period of time, we've expanded the number of lenders on the panel. You do see variations quarter on quarter about the number of products that are made available. That's more linked to their own credit policies and what they want to sell. So I don't think that there's any real change on that front unless I'm missing something, Craig, that Anything you want to add on that?

No, I mean, I think that's right. I think no change. I mean, on track.

Okay, thanks very much. Thanks, James.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Carl Green from RBC. Please go ahead.

Yeah, thanks very much. I've got two questions. I'll just take them in turn. The first one is just around the launch of Experian Smart Money, the digital checking account, which looks really interesting. I just wondered if you could talk through the mechanics of that. How's that actually working in practice? Are you partnering with a white label provider on the financial services side in terms of thinking about banking regulation, et cetera? Yeah, start with that one, please.

Yeah. The Smart Money proposition is done with a banking partner. You know, we comply with all the regulations that are around that, but the banking regulations part of that apply to the bank partner. It's a very similar setup that you see with a lot of fintech players in the U.S. markets, so no different from that perspective.

Great. So you'll basically be taking a kind of fee, referral fee type model, presumably fairly high margin, is that fair?

Yeah, two aspects to it, Carl. So obviously for us, using that relationship to be able to help consumers process transactions and make those transactions available to improve their credit score and to build their credit positions is all part of our strategy. So that's a pretty unique feature in the market and a pretty important piece of our overall consumer proposition. Clearly, as part of a normal fee, there's an interchange fee that we receive, and part of that gets paid to the banking as a service provider who fulfills on our behalf. So a normal mechanism.

Great. Thanks very much. And then the second question, a much broader question. I think given the long and variable lags of monetary policy tightening, are you currently comfortable with consensus for a rebound period? inorganic growth to 7% in fiscal 25.

Yeah, I think we'll provide some guidance for next year when we get to May. I think you've seen this year, last year and this year, we've got a pretty good track record of executing against the commitments we make and the guidance we give for the year ahead. We're right now rock solid in the center of our range for this year. And let's Let's see what the environment brings and we'll deliver guidance for next year in May.

Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. We will now take our final question for today. And your final question comes from the line of Simona Sali, Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Hi, just a quick follow up from my side. Can you please remind us about your M&A strategy? And you have also talked about the valuations now being a little bit more reasonable in the market. So where do you see the opportunities out there, specific geographies or solutions where you would like to grow? Thanks.

Yeah, thanks, Simone. There's no change really to our M&A strategy. We're always looking for sensible additions to our business and the core areas of credit, fraud, identity, health, other areas. So none of them, we're always looking for acquisitions that are a good strategic fit. The only difference is we'll be able to make buyer and seller expectations meet. I think Lloyd's comment really was, we were talking about this this time last year, there was really a a sort of suspension of disbelief and seller expectations on multiples had not adjusted. We do see some moderation in that. I would say some. So I think it's possible that we'll be able to move forward in the next 12 months in a way that we haven't been able to. But again, I think it really comes down to individual situations and whether we can get any of those across the line. Every year we've sat here, you can never really predict what's in your pipeline, whether anything is actually going to execute or not. And we always have a strong pipeline of opportunities. So no change in terms of the focus. We look to add materially to our data assets, to bureaus, if we can find good bureau acquisitions, fraud, identity. None of the spaces will be really a surprise to anybody.

Thank you. Thank you. I will now hand the call back to Brian for closing remarks.

Great, thank you. So that concludes today's session. Thanks, everybody, for joining us. Hope you all have a good day. And we look forward to speaking to you again in January for our Q3 trading update.