11/12/2025

speaker
Operator

Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the experience half year results for the six months ended 30th September 2025 webcast and conference call. At this time all participants are in listen only mode. After the speaker's presentation there will be the question and answer session. To ask a question during the session you will need to press star 1 1 on your telephone keypad. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw a question please press star 1 1 again. please be advised that this conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to our first speaker today, Mr. Brian Cassin, Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead, sir.

speaker
Brian Cassin
Chief Executive Officer

Well, thank you very much. Hello, everybody, and welcome to our first half results presentation. I'm joined today by Lloyd, who will run through the financials after my initial overview, and then we'll open it up for Q&A. So we delivered very good first half results at the top end of our FY26 guidance range. and we are on course to meet our medium-term framework objectives. Revenue, margin, cash performance are all strong, supported by significant strategic progress. Just turning to some of the financial highlights, organic revenue growth accelerated from 8% in Q1 to 9% in Q2, averaging 8% for the first half. Including acquisitions, total constant currency revenue growth reached 12% with all acquisitions performing well. North America performance is strong and broad-based, accelerating to 12% organically in Q2, driven by client wins, client expansions, consistently improving lender activity in B2B, and good results in consumer services. FISC conditions in Latin America, particularly Brazil, remain constrained by high interest rates and consumer indebtedness. The growth in H1 reflects continued excellent consumer services progress. And while the UK and I delivered low single-digit growth overall, Ascend Sandbox adoption among B2B clients has been excellent, with UK consumer services driving growth through new products and market expansion. And EMEA Asia Pacific delivered a solid mid-single-digit growth supported by innovation initiatives and our stronger positioning in key markets. Revenue growth translated into EBIT margin delivery at the upper end of our expectations, up 50 basis points at constant currency and 30 basis points at actual rates. Margin expansion in North America, UK&I, and EMEA in Asia Pacific offset lower LATAM margins, which was primarily driven by acquisition mix. EBIT strength flowed through to double-digit benchmark EPS growth, and we've raised the interim dividend by 10%. Cash flow growth very strong, with our leverage ratio now standing at 1.8 times. I'll just touch on some of the strategic highlights in half. The Ascent platform adoption continues to accelerate. In addition, earlier this year, we introduced new cash flow attributes and analytics in North America, and we're seeing very good client demand. And B2B achieved organic revenue growth in the half of 8%. Consumer services delivered 9% growth, reaching over 208 million free members. We continue to add more breadth and depth to our products. And all of our key metrics, organic traffic, engagement, continue to trend positively, reflecting the successful positioning of this business as a financial partner for our members. Our recent acquisitions are on track, delivering cost synergies and new product opportunities. We also recently completed a small fraud acquisition in the UK, which further enhances our product portfolio and strengthens our position in non-financial services verticals. And finally, cloud migrations in North America and in Brazil, excluding North America Health, are on track, and we expect dual run costs to peak this financial year. Our strategic progress reflects our consistent commitment to our dual-sided strategy across B2B and consumer, which is unique and which has expanded our growth potential and created new value opportunities across our priority ecosystems. We're now entering a new and exciting era driven by AI, and we're strongly positioned to take advantage of the opportunity this brings to our business. The starting point for this is our data. These data sets are vast, complex, they're constantly being refreshed, They are subject to expansive and stringent regulation, and they need to be accurate all of the time. The job of creating these data assets is a huge and complex operational exercise, which relies not just on process, but also on proprietary intellectual property and significant industry expertise. They simply cannot be replicated, and they cannot be accessed unless permissioned by us. Our strategy has always been not only to sell data, but to build solutions on top of our data that provide action and insight. to improve client outcomes and reduce cost. Almost all these solutions require our data as a foundational input, and this is a source of huge competitive advantage to us that will grow over time. And we have a long and successful track record of doing this. The evidence is everywhere in our current solutions, in our history of innovation and business expansion. Power curve, Ascend, the expansion of all our verticals, and the huge growth in our consumer businesses are all examples. Broadly, this expansion of our opportunity set has been driven by the increasing use of data to automate critical business processes to make better decisions, create better client outcomes, and to lower operational costs. AI will accelerate this trend, and it is and will continue to expand our opportunities. Despite decades of investment, many client processes remain siloed, inefficient, and costly. And this is particularly true when it comes to leveraging data, which of course has to be solved to leverage AI at scale, and this is where Experian excels. The opportunity for us remains huge, and the excitement for us is that the AI will accelerate the speed with which we can bring disruptive new products to market. Our data, our products, our platforms, our product development capability, and our industry footprint gives us a strategic position that most companies are killed for, and we intend to leverage that to accelerate our growth. Now, we've built strong foundations over many years to put ourselves into this position, as this slide demonstrates. And just over the past few years alone, we've been proactive across the entirety of our B2B and consumer businesses in leveraging AI use cases to enhance our product sets and also to penetrate new growth areas. And we haven't just been talking about it. We already have AI products in the market. A good example of this is the Patient Access Curator product. which is driving our growth in health and redefining the process of insurance discovery. Platforms like Ascend and Activate have been specifically developed to be modular and to bring all of our data and capabilities together in one place. This, of course, is a perfect setup to allow our clients to take maximum advantage of data at scale, both our data and their data, and for us to easily introduce new functionality, both AI and conventional, for our clients to test and learn and quickly implement and then put into production. A very good example of this is model governance, an AI-first solution which virtually eliminates vast amounts of work related to comply with regulatory and internal improvement requirements for credit model evaluation and approval. Clients building models in Ascend can now access this module, which saves huge amounts of time and expense in what are time-consuming operationally complex but mission-critical functions. And there are many more products in development. For a standalone, we expect to have agentic solutions covering five major categories of activity this year, each category representing an agglomeration of many different capabilities or activities bundled together. And we have more than double that number of categories in production for 26 and beyond. I want to bring this to life for you with a Tier 1 client example. The client here is a long-term data partner of Experian, a very large global financial services provider. And we've taken them on a journey which started with really our data and the value of our data. It then migrated into the integration of our data and our software. They used to be just a client that consumed Bureau data and other data sources. They also used legacy experience software as well as competitive software and in-house systems. And these are all now moving onto the platform. Initially, they acquired our data quality tools, which helped them to actually enhance their decision systems by ensuring consistency and usability of their own data as well as ours. They then took the sandbox to help them actually accelerate the insights and analytics that they can derive from that data across the entire product lifecycle. And now they're looking at how to deploy models like AI Model Risk Manager. And this strategy really gives us the ability to enable more modules for clients in a managed way. It's a convergent strategy which creates incredible performance and value for clients. And of course, it opens up new value pools for us. We showed them the value of bringing all these capabilities into one place. They saw the benefits of this in not only just reducing the number of vendors or in-house systems, but the power of data in one place can bring to them. And this led naturally into a much longer partnership type arrangement with increased tenure, in this case from three to five years, and a substantial revenue uplift over the term of the contract period. And we can continue to grow from here by bringing new value to the table using the platform in situations like this. So AI is already helping our revenue growth and margin today. It's driving productivity improvements. It's speeding up and reducing the cost of new product development. and it is the fuel for our future investment. As we look at our addressable markets, the constraint we historically faced was the time it took to develop new products to market, and the time for these products to gain acceptance and adoption. And it often needed a catalyst to create conditions for change, and we believe that AI is that catalyst, and that we have a huge amount of white space that is now more accessible to us than ever before. So we see continued opportunities both internally through improving productivity and many new product opportunities. In short, we're very excited about the opportunities this brings and we're positioning our business to capitalize and we intend to take full advantage of the opportunity this presents to us. Now many of the new products that I've referenced contributed towards our successful H1. As just illustrated, Ascend platform momentum continues. The range of capabilities in the platform will continue to expand, and it now encompasses AI data, analytics, marketing, and credit services, together with complex decisioning. And our progress with clients has been strong, and as the chart here shows, we've seen rapid adoption. We've recently introduced new cash flow scores and analytics. These combine credit data with AI-powered real-time cash flow data and categorization. This innovation strengthens predictive power scores and results in higher approvals with enhanced model accuracy. Client demand is strong here, too, and our pipeline is expanding rapidly. And we've also integrated ClearSale in Brazil, and we're commencing the launch of new products with the ClearSale acquisition, but also new propositions like Sarasa Pass. This introduces reusable identities and has applications across both B2B and B2C. In consumer services, we're focused on delivering deeply personalized experiences by leveraging experienced data assets. At the center of this strategy is EVA, which already is an agentic assistance, providing not only guidance, but also taking actions on behalf of consumers. Confirm Your Home uses Experian North America property data to provide home value and mortgage insights. It forms the hub for our new home vertical, and leverages data from our B2B housing business. Over 2 million interactions have been initiated with EVA on our consumer services platform. And just two other quick examples to highlight are the Serasa Pass in Brazil I just mentioned, which has consumer applications and will provide secure logins to third-party digital properties using Serasa credentials, and the enhanced UKNI refi feature, which supports debt consolidation for consumers. And these are all small examples of the extensive product innovation roadmap, which is designed to drive higher consumer engagement, greater efficiency for our clients, and extend us into new monetizable value pools. So let's now turn to our H1 regional performance. North America delivered strong momentum with Q2 strength driving 10% H1 organic revenue growth. Financial services, excluding mortgage, was fueled by new client wins and client expansions. amid a steady and consistently improving lending environment. In financial services, clients can access credit, clarity, and cash flow data through a single integration, which unlocks new potential with significant wins and a growing list of prospects. The Ascend analytical platform saw continued progress with new clients for Ascend marketing, further sandbox adoption, and rising interest in the fraud sandbox. The Experian AI Systems has also driven cross-sell opportunities with deepened client relationships. Vertical has delivered strong growth in health. Patient Access Curator is transforming how the industry understands a patient's insurance picture to reduce claims denials and accelerate payments. It's positioned Experian as the market leader with a first-to-market AI solution performing substantially ahead of existing products. The milestone partnership we previously discussed in auto has expanded availability of our vehicle history reports across dealer networks, strengthening earnings quality through a long-term agreement, and reinforcing our track record for innovation-led wins. And in targeting, Audigent is also an excellent start, driving momentum in audience targeting and activation. So now I'd like to provide some comments on the recent changes to the U.S. mortgage market. The FHFA's recent decision to introduce score choice into the conforming mortgage market has introduced new competition and a market opportunity of advantage score. Like in any of our markets, we believe the primary value lies here with the data, as a score cannot be generated without the data. And there has been much debate on this issue of where value resides, score or data, but I'll summarize it with an important data point. Roughly 50% of all mortgages in the U.S. are acquired by the GFC In determining whether to buy a loan, the GSEs are reliant on the data that we and the other bureaus provide. By contrast, the GAs do not rely on the FICO score in their buying decision. They don't need it. In fact, just last week, Fannie Mae removed the minimum 620 FICO score requirement from its desktop underwriting system and official selling guide. And just to quote Fannie Mae's selling guide, credit scores are not an integral part of that risk assessment because they perform their own analysis of the credit report data. While scores are used to help borrow communication, pricing adjustments, and the secondary markets, it's clear that Vantage Score can also easily enable these use cases. Now, up to now, Vantage Score has not been approved for use in mortgage, largely due to inertia more than anything else, as Vantage Score outperforms the FICO score currently used in the mortgage market. Where VantageScore has been used in unsecured lending, and in cards, auto, and other non-mortgage categories, it's actually already captured substantial share. And we estimate this to be around 30% for lending originations based on our internal data. Now that it is approved for mortgage, we expect that VantageScore will gain share in the same way that it's done in unsecured lending. And we will be facilitating lender and consumer choice through the Experian score choice bundle, and by making Vantage Score available in the Ascend sandbox. We expect this to be a long-term opportunity for Experian, with a shift to Vantage Score driving millions more scoreable consumers, and ultimately greater mortgage origination activity. As this happens, we expect our profitability to be further enhanced, but to be clear, we do not need a shift to Vantage Score to protect our position in the value chain. That resides in our data, and the GSC's and every industry participant knows that it is the data that matters. Now turning now to consumer services, organic revenue growth for the half was 8% or 12% excluding data breach. Membership, marketplace, and partner solutions all contributed favorably in the half. In membership, we're delivering new value to deepen engagement and drive upsell from across our ecosystem. We saw particular strength in marketplace as lenders compete for prospects, with clients leveraging Activate to deliver credit and personal loan offers, improving their efficiency. Activity was robust across both cards and personal loans, supported by our popular no-ding decline card feature and expanded panel, and insurance tools continue to make good progress. Turning now to Latin America, over the past few years, we've built a superior product portfolio in Brazil, and we continue to make good strategic progress. While high interest rates and consumer indebtedness have tempered B2B growth, progress in consumer services has been strong. We're particularly excited by the prospects arising from the integration of ClearSale with our credit risk B2B platform. We've built a healthy pipeline for new blended fraud and credit risk products. Prospects for Ascend Analytics are also strong, alongside an encouraging outlook for our SME segment driven by client growth and upsell into advanced solutions. Despite high interest rates and election uncertainty, we're well-positioned to strengthen market leadership in H2 and beyond. 18% growth in Latin American consumer services is a strong result, driven by our expanded opportunity and diversification around financial empowerment and leveraging our strong brand presence in Brazil. The PNOME performed well as consumers managed rising indebtedness. Our Q3 credit fair will further support Brazilian consumers to manage their finances. And our credit marketplace is scaling rapidly and contributed meaningfully in this half. New payroll loan offers will deepen our marketplace further to serve the 40 million plus Brazilian eligible Brazilian consumers. Progress also continues in insurance as we continue to add new large insurance insurers to our panel. The UK and I delivered 1% organic revenue growth, which was led by consumer services. While not yet fully reflected in revenue performance, B2B new business achievement was good. Ascend Sandbox proof of value is converted into major wins and uplift renewals with leading financial institutions, including a tier one enterprise partnership. More proof of concepts are pending and new module introductions are planned. COVID aside, UK consumer services grew at its fastest rate in a decade. We've transformed this business with an enhanced consumer experience. new features like refi for debt consolidation, and by leveraging EVA. The enhanced analytics we delivered through the Activate platform has led to exclusive credit offers on our platform, and this drove strong marketplace performance. Turning now to me and Asia Pacific, organic revenue growth delivered 6%, which was another solid year of progress, with total revenue of 35%, including the acquisition of Illium. The ILEON acquisition integration is on track. It drove the 480 basis points regional margin uplift. And our combined bureaus in Australia now offer a strong and differentiated consumer data asset. We've introduced the Ascend Data Hub and Ascend Ops to Australia to leverage our pre-acquisition leadership and decisioning. And with the combined bureau data now available, we have really good interest in the Ascend sandbox. We've also advanced our technology and back office integration while streamlining legacy and non-core portfolio elements. Regionally, organic H1 progress spanned our geographies, supported by new product introductions and leveraging our global solutions. So with that overview, I'm gonna hand over to Lloyd for the financials.

speaker
Lloyd
Chief Financial Officer

Thanks, Brian, and good morning, everyone. As you've seen, we delivered another very strong performance in the first half, with total revenue growth of 12% at constant rates and 13% at actual rates. This was driven by organic revenue growth of 8% at the top end of our guidance and a further 4 percentage points from acquisitions. Benchmark EBIT margin from ongoing activities progressed well, up 50 basis points at constant rates and 30 basis points at actual rates. EBIT growth was 14% at both constant and actual rates. And this converted well into EPS growth with 13% at constant rates and 12% at actual rates. Operating cash flow grew 25%, reflecting a 77% conversion in the half. And our growing capital base continues to generate very high post-tax returns on capital employed of around 16.5% for the half year. As Brian mentioned, we announced an interim dividend of 21.25 cents, which is up 10% on the prior year. And finally, we continue to be very strongly financed with our net debt to EBITDA ratio at 1.8 times. Turning to our medium term framework, we're in the second year of delivery against this medium term framework and continue to execute confidently and well on our strategic plans. And financially, we continued last year's momentum with high single digital organic growth, strong organic margin progression, and the benefits of capital discipline and deployment all being delivered in this half year. And if you look back over a longer time horizon at our performance here over the last six years, you can see we've delivered consistently strong financial results across all of our key financial metrics. Since FY20, we've grown half one revenue at an 8% compound annual growth rate. Benchmark EBIT has grown 9% compound, benchmark EPS, 10% compound, and operating cash flow at 17% compound. And this highlights the quality and consistency of the strategic execution over this period as our business scales. Looking at more current trends, organic revenue growth was at the upper end of the expected performance range for the first half. All our regions contributed to half-won growth, with North America at 10%, 4% in LATAM, 1% in the UK and Ireland, and 6% in EMEA and Asia Pacific. By quarter, organic revenue growth strengthened from 8% in Q1 to 9% in Q2, supported by a one-time volume true-up in the North America consumer services business, which added 1% to group growth in the second quarter. Looking at organic revenue growth across our segments, here on the left-hand chart, you can see B2B organic revenue growth was 7% in Q2, with good growth across both financial services and verticals. and was underpinned by client wins, cross-sell, and new product innovations. North America was the key driver, growing at 11% for Q2, with 12% growth in financial services, 15% in automotive, and 10% in health. Financial services growth excluding mortgage was 12%, with mortgage growth of 41% on modestly lower volumes. On the left-hand side is the consumer services trend in total and excluding, sorry, on the right-hand side consumer services trend in total and excluding our data breach business. As the elevated data breach comparable fell away in Q2, consumer growth rebounded to 12% globally in Q2 and 13% in North America. And in the yellow diamonds, you can see the strength and consistency of the underlying consumer growth excluding data breach. Turning now to EBIT margin. And last year, in the first half, we added 70 basis points to margin, and this year, we delivered 100 basis points of organic constant currency margin expansion, primarily due to broad strength across the North America business. Organic margin progression has been driven by broad-scale productivity improvements as our businesses scale. We're also seeing tangible benefits from AI deployment across our business. Organic headcount is broadly flat this year, thanks to these productivity programs, whilst organic revenue grew by 8%. And we see many exciting applications of AI in our business, which can continue to drive productivity. Including acquisitions, total EBIT margin from ongoing activities increased 50 basis points at constant rates and 30 basis points at actual rates to 28.3%. On a regional level, North America's EBIT margin added 90 basis points from broad expansion across the portfolio. UK and Ireland added 60 basis points, and EMEA and Asia Pacific expanded 480 basis points due to the addition of ILIA. Latin America margin contracted by 240 basis points, largely due to the temporary effect of the integration of acquisitions. And when considering our segmental margins over a longer-term timeframe, here you can see that the B2B margins have been relatively consistent at around 30% since FY20, despite the temporary dilution from recent acquisitions and cloud transformation dual run costs. As previously indicated, the dual run costs peak this year and will trend down from FY27. And the margin from our recent acquisitions will trend to group average margin over around three years. consumer segment margins have expanded from 21% in half one 2020, reaching 30% in the first half this year, which has resulted from scaling our audience to over 208 million members and the growing breadth of our consumer propositions. Turning now to EPS, where last year we delivered 8% growth in half one, and this year we've delivered double-digit growth of 12% at actual rates. Benchmark continuing EBIT grew 15% at constant currency due to strong revenue growth and 50 basis points of margin expansion at constant rates. The combination of interest expense reflecting acquisition funding and a slightly higher tax rate resulted in 13% EPS growth at constant currency and 12% at actual rates. So over a two-year period since we began our medium-term framework, the increase in first half EPS is over 20%. Take a look now at our usual reconciliation to statutory results. Our benchmark profit before tax grew 13% at actual rates driven by revenue performance and good margin progression. Acquisition-related expenses increased to $32 million due to the acquisitions of ClearSale, Illion, and Audigent. And there was little change in the fair value of contingent consideration on prior acquisitions, and restructuring-related costs were $3 million for the half. And the above items resulted in a statutory profit before tax and non-cash items of just over a billion, representing a 12% growth at the half, which is broadly in line with the growth in benchmark PBT. Non-cash items included an increase in amortization of acquisition intangibles, and financing remeasurements were 92 million favorable versus a 93 million adverse in the prior year. And this swing was principally driven by re-measurements on Brazil intergroup funding, resulting in a statutory profit before tax at $975 million, or 36% growth on last year. So now turning to cash flow and return on capital. On the left-hand chart shows our long-term operating cash flow and conversion metrics. As you can see from the slide, we delivered strong growth on half one operating cash flow, growing at 17% compound rate since FY20. This half year, we generated around 900 million of operating cash flow at a 77% conversion rate. A key part of our framework is to continue to use our cash generation to invest in high return on capital growth opportunities. And on the right, you can see our disciplined use of capital, where we've significantly grown our capital base to around $10 billion, whilst delivering consistently high post-tax returns, this year at 16.5%. Turning to capital investment, we have significantly progressed with our cloud transformation program and well on the way to our expected position of over 85% of processing in the cloud in our U.S. and Brazil businesses outside of health by this year end. As we approach the latter stages of the program, we expect to benefit from the reduced dual run costs and lower change-related capital investments. And this will allow us to expand our innovation and AI investment activities to drive future growth all within the financial envelope of our medium-term framework. As we materially complete our cloud technology program, we're very strongly financed. Our key leverage measure of net debt to EBITDA was 1.8 times at the half year. Our fixed debt level stands at around 60% at the half year, and we have an average tenor of five years remaining. And our average interest rate is 3.5% in the half. Our benchmark net interest expense guidance for the full year remains at around $190 million. So turning now to our full-year modeling considerations, which relate to ongoing activities, based on the strength of our half-won performance, we now expect organic revenue growth for the full year to be around 8% at the top end of our previous guidance range. And we continue to expect a 3% inorganic contribution from completed acquisitions. Based on recent FX rates, we now expect FX to be a 1% tailwind to both revenue and EBIT growth. And beyond these points, we don't expect any other changes to our guidance. So with that, I'll hand you back to Brian. Great.

speaker
Brian Cassin
Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Lloyd. So in closing, we've started the year with good momentum, with strong H1 financial progress across revenue, margins, and cash flow generation. And we now expect to deliver at the top end of our FY26 guidance range. We've advanced strongly across B2B and B2C, scaling key initiatives and future growth investments, Our recent acquisitions have performed well and have integrated well, and they've strengthened their market position and give us the opportunity to unlock new avenues of growth. We're driving AI initiatives across the business with a clear ambition to lead the next wave of data-driven intelligence solutions, and our cloud transformation is on track to peak this financial year. All this puts us on track to deliver on our medium-term financial framework. We're very well positioned to sustain our growth and to continue to generate high returns. So with that, I'm going to hand it over to the operator for your questions. And to give everybody a chance to ask questions, could I ask that you please group your questions to two per person? Operator, over to you.

speaker
Operator

Thank you so much, dear participants. As a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please press star 11 on your telephone keypad and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw a question, please press star 11 again. Mr. Balwa compiled your Q&A roster. This will take a few moments. And now we're going to take our first question. Just give us a moment. And it comes to the line of Scott Wurzel from Wolf Research. Your line is open. Please ask a question.

speaker
Scott Wurzel
Analyst, Wolfe Research

Hey, good morning, guys, and thank you for taking my questions. I guess maybe first one just on the guidance and, you know, great to see you guys raise the, you know, to the top end of the revenue guide, but with margins staying flat, can you just maybe talk a little bit about where you're maybe investing a little bit more in the business with that incremental revenue growth? And then I guess as a follow-up to that, maybe your view on sort of these structural margins within the B2B business, you know, as we kind of get through these dual running costs and lap the impact of the recent acquisitions. Thanks.

speaker
Lloyd
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, so I think you said with flat margins. Margins are up 30 basis points.

speaker
Scott Wurzel
Analyst, Wolfe Research

I meant reiterating the guide, yeah.

speaker
Lloyd
Chief Financial Officer

Okay, sorry, I understand. So look, I think we're really confident in the margin outlook for the business. You've seen when we put our medium-term framework together, obviously we didn't have acquisitions to forecast at that time. Organic margin last year was up 90 basis points. First half this year is up 100 basis points. So that tells you that we have a lot of capacity to be able to reinvest and to be able to deliver on the margin commitments that we've got. You look out for the full year. We've reiterated the 30 to 50 basis points. Again, very confident in that As you look out beyond this year, the dual run costs move from a headwind to a tailwind. So that 100 basis points will come back over about four or five years. We also get back the dilution that we've had from the recent acquisitions. So last year, that was 20 basis points. This year, 30 basis points. So what you can see is that the margin outlook embedded our medium-term framework is very well underpinned. And that gives us a lot of flexibility, and we said this at the time we outlined our medium-term framework, to ensure that we're continuing to invest and innovate. And as Brian said, we see an exciting future as AI really fuels the opportunity of the value embedded in the proprietary data that we have, and we're going to be investing strongly behind that. We can do that whilst confidently delivering our framework.

speaker
Unknown Participant
Analyst

Thanks, guys.

speaker
Operator

Thank you. Now we're going to take our next question. And the question comes from Andy Groble from BNP Paribas. Your line is open. Please ask your question.

speaker
Andy Groble
Analyst, BNP Paribas

Hi. Good morning. Just a couple, if I may. The first one on productivity. Lloyd, you mentioned that you could see tangible benefits from AI from a productivity perspective. Could you kind of quantify what you're seeing now and how you expect that to move over the next two to three years as that develops? And then secondly, on mortgage, there's clearly a lot going on in that market at this time. What do you think is the timeframe for the market, i.e. the resellers, to move to the new system? And also, What are your expectations in terms of how long it takes VantageScore to be kind of fully utilized within that market? Thanks very much.

speaker
Lloyd
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, hi, Andy. So on productivity, I mean, like everybody, we're just seeing an acceleration of the availability of tooling that can really drive productivity across the group. You know, we have a lot of people working in producing product and the ability to be able to increase capacity without adding people in that because of the use of coding deployment auto coding generation. But looking more broadly across administrative functions, support functions, customer support functions, all of them are showing the benefit of the deployment of new tooling. And that's, as I mentioned in my remarks, we grew 8% organically in the first half, and organic headcount was broadly stable. So that kind of shows you the potential in the group. We clearly have a lot of capability in the company. It's what we do to be able to deploy AI tooling. And that benefits our clients, but also benefits inside the company. So I expect that to continue, and that's going to give us a lot of flexibility, as I said, to be able to deliver on our financial framework, but also to increasingly invest in product innovation and in AI deployment for our customers.

speaker
Brian Cassin
Chief Executive Officer

And Andy, just coming back onto the mortgage market, yeah, there is a lot going on. On the reseller's point, I think there's no one answer because I think the reseller market consists of quite a lot of different players, some big ones, some small ones. Probably the big ones are able to cope with the operational changes quicker than the smaller ones, but even that's going to take a bit of time. It's difficult to be precise. I think it will differ based on reseller to reseller, but They will have to change operational processes. Obviously, in a new structure, they'd be calculating the score. They've never done that before. There's lots of requirements around that, which is ensuring that you actually have completely synced up between the actual data and the score. You have audit requirements around that for the GSEs and for their clients. You have billing that you have to set up. You have to set up processes around ensuring that you can answer any consumer disputes that come. because today those consumer disputes around the score data will come to the bureaus. If you split between the actual data and the score between bureau and resellers, you probably have a lot of customer confusion about where that liability relies. So there's quite a lot to do, and I suspect that there will be different timescales for different resellers, but we don't expect this to be very quick. I think sometime into 26, and as I say, some will be quicker than others. So hopefully that answers that question. The second part was vantage score adoption. You know, I think just reiterate points I think that have been made ad nauseum. FICA score has been the only score available for use for 30 years. So it is embedded in the system in the way that I've described when I referenced the GSEs. So it's used across the system. But I think people can move. We've seen some people move from FICA to VentureScore pretty quickly in other areas. Some will take longer. So I think over the next few years, you are going to see people move. Obviously, those will be individual decisions made by lenders and so on and so forth. But I think over the next few years, you're going to start to see some of that shift.

speaker
Unknown Participant
Analyst

Okay, thanks very much.

speaker
Operator

Thank you. Now we're going to go to the next question. And it comes from Anne-Lise Vermoelen from Morgan Stanley. Your line is open. Please ask your question.

speaker
Anne-Lise Vermoelen
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Good morning, Brian. Good morning, Lloyd. Two questions as well. Just coming back to AI, I just wanted to understand a bit better on how that develops into pricing of your products for customers. As you embed more AI in these products, is that something you can price for? You mentioned that it's also reducing the cost of developing new products. So equally, is any of that being passed on to customers? I'm just wondering if there's any risk of pricing pressure as a result of AI and how you think about that. And then secondly, just on the marketplace in North America, it sounded like growth was pretty broad-based across credits. and insurance marketplaces. Is there anything particular to call out in terms of the drivers of that in H1, audience expansion, adding more lenders, and perhaps as part of that, could you update on your expansion into home insurance and how that's progressing? Thank you.

speaker
Brian Cassin
Chief Executive Officer

Just on the first question, I think we see AI as new products that we've introduced have actually all been new functionality. So if you look at patient access curator in health, that's a new process which really improves the insurance discovery solution for our clients. And because of the performance of that product, we're able to actually get premium prices for that. A reference model governance, which would be embedded in the Ascend platform. Again, when you look at the value equation, model governance is a hugely complex exercise. A lot of people involved in that. Very important from a risk and compliance perspective. Very costly. The extent that we automate that and take out significant costs for our clients, that also represents revenue upside opportunities. We're in the early stages of that, but actually the evidence that we've seen so far is that this is revenue additive. In terms of the productivity benefits, we have seen those. I think what that means is that two really important things. One, we can build more stuff. And secondly, we can actually build more stuff which gets to market quicker. But there's two aspects to that. One is actually building the product to a point which people can pilot and test, and two, making it operational. And overall, we just see that cadence of new product introduction and the ability to get them to market quicker. Leveraging these capabilities is what we're focused on. Clearly, all clients will do an economic assessment on the value that's provided by any solution. That's not going to go away. People don't just accept solutions because they've got AI labeled on them. They will evaluate whether it's better, faster, cheaper, or enables them to take you know, take costs out of their own system or give them a better outcome. So that evaluation continues, and, you know, we expect that to be no different in the new world. But, you know, we're excited about what that does for us, given the big footprint of developers we have across the business. We introduce a huge number of products every year. I think that cadence is going to improve, and I think that's really a positive.

speaker
Lloyd
Chief Financial Officer

And now I'll touch on our marketplace. Just lending more generally in the U.S., I think we're in our third quarter of sequentially improving lending position, and you can see that in the performance of the core financial services business outside of mortgage. The place that first showed up was very strong growth in financial marketplace inside the consumer business, and that continues to grow very strongly. And insurance continues to grow well, even outside of the one-off catch-up that we had, which I think was helpful in the quarter, but it also reflects that the insurance business was actually a bit better than we thought it was with the volumes that we reported last year. Brian referenced in his remarks the launch of Home Hub. So just like we launched the Auto Hub, where people can claim their car And then we use all of our data assets to help consumers around their car-owning journey. The principle is the same around the home hub, including home insurance. So we'll be bringing all of the assets that Experian has around home to bear in the direct-to-consumer market. And we'll tell you a bit more about that as that product launches, Annalise.

speaker
Operator

Very clear. Thank you. Thank you. Now we're going to take our next question. And it comes to the line of Simon Clinch from Rothschild & Co. Redburn. Your line is open. Please ask your question.

speaker
Simon Clinch
Analyst, Rothschild & Co

Hi, Brian. Hi, Lloyd. Thanks for taking my question. I've just got two questions here. The first one, I just wondered if you could just clarify your assessment of the 30% market share that VantageScore has in certain parts of the market. I just want to make sure I understand exactly what you're referencing to there. And then my second question to follow up would just be on, it's very interesting that the launch of the cash flow score recently, and I'm just kind of curious as to where we are in terms of the, I guess, the bundling or even integration of consumer permission data sets with core credit and how that's going to really feed the innovation pipeline going forward. Because to me, that seems to be one of the more unique opportunities for Experian. Thanks.

speaker
Brian Cassin
Chief Executive Officer

Great. Okay. Well, look, the 30% market share actually comes from our assessment of our internal data. Obviously, we don't cover whole market, but we have a very big market share, and we expect actually that that will be replicated across the other bureaus. So that's across all unsecured lending, across auto, across cards, personal loans, and so on and so forth. The biggest penetration is actually in card, which obviously is the biggest category, and also in fintech. So, for example, in fintech, VantageScore has over 50% market share across all FinTech categories. So I think you can see that where there has been competition available, people have adopted alternative scores. And so I think you turn back then to the mortgage market where VantageScore has not been available for 30 years and now is. I think it would be a pretty reasonable assumption to say that Vantage Score will gain market share. I think on the cash flow score point, we're very excited about this product, and I think this is kind of following what we've seen really across other territories when open banking was introduced, which is, one, consumer permission data has a role to play. The role is really an enhancement in addition to core bureau data. It's not a replacement. So they're really powerful solutions combined, too. And therefore, we are in a fantastic position to develop this market and to be the leading player. And frankly, we've got the best solution in the marketplace. And I think we're going to win in this category, and we're going to win very big. And the reason is because you know, only we can really do that combination. And the attributes and scores we've developed have been really leveraging consumer data that we've had access to at scale. That has a lot of resonance in the marketplace, and we're seeing a lot of client interest in this.

speaker
Ben Wild
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Great. Thank you.

speaker
Operator

Thank you. And now we're going to take our next question. And it comes from James Rose from Barclays. Your line is open. Please ask a question.

speaker
James Rose
Analyst, Barclays

Thanks. The first one is how you think AI could affect your medium-term model. I think on one side, you've got productivity evident now, which could push you above the 30 to 50 bps. Or if you kept the margin profile the same, presumably revenue growth could go up if you've got faster product development or more products coming to market. So I just wonder how you think it could move the needle in the longer term. And then secondly, Notice the point you just made that you're now enhancing credit data with your cash flow analytics. Equifax have made some comments around offering TWN in credit reports. Just wondering whether you think there's a need to counter that and to start building your own employment and verification data a bit more rapidly. Thank you.

speaker
Brian Cassin
Chief Executive Officer

Okay. Lloyd, do you want to answer the first one in terms of

speaker
Lloyd
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, I think, James, clearly AI is a rapidly developing area. I think on the one hand, it's almost impossible to forecast all the different avenues. What you can see in the way that we've been performing is we have a lot of flexibility. And I think that's going to be important. We can't forecast out exactly how it will develop. over the next three or four years, but we have financially a lot of flexibility to be able to continue to deliver good margin progression as our business scales and continue investment to make sure that we win in this new field. We have just huge embedded value in our proprietary data sets that AI will accelerate the monetization of, and we plan to invest to make sure that we can do that, and we can do that while still adding margin.

speaker
Brian Cassin
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, and on the, just on the sort of employment data, as you know, we have been building our employment verification business over the last few years, and we've gotten to some significant scale in that. But I think that the main point really is just that people continue to innovate. All bureaus continue to innovate and offer solutions to their clients that they think might add additional value. The work number flag is one example of that. There are many others. But I think when we look at the cash flow and the uptake on the cash flow, the interest that we've seen on that, I think that's very significant. It's obviously really significant for people at the lower end of the borrowing spectrum, more thin file and less prime customers, but nonetheless, we think it's a very significant new innovation and we're excited about it. Great, thanks very much.

speaker
Operator

Thank you. Dear participants, as a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please press star one one on your telephone keypad. And now we're going to take our next question. And the question comes from Ben Wild from Deutsche Bank. Your line is open, please ask your question.

speaker
Ben Wild
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. Two for me as well, please. There's obviously a huge range of discussion on AI and its potential impact on your business, but specifically on the consumer services platform, you talked consistently over many years about building a platform that's focused on supporting consumers and enhancing their financial lives. I know that you've talked about your own internal AI assistant, Eva, but how do you think about protecting your consumer audience as consumers increasingly adopt competing ai tools and how do you think about integrating your offer with some of these tools such as chat gpt um and as an adjunct to the question are you seeing any impact on on active user intensity as chat gpt penetration grows um for example second question is on again on the consumer platform sorry if you look at consumer reviews for the experience um app many consumers flag that access to FICO scores is an important differentiator versus some of your other very large platform competitors. How important is it to retain the FICO score offering consumer services? And is your thinking on that point evolving in light of recent events?

speaker
Brian Cassin
Chief Executive Officer

Okay, well, thanks for this question. So I'll deal with them one by one. So first of all, I think on the, you know, the first point to make, I think on... the metrics that we're seeing across our consumer business continues to trend very positively. That includes organic search traffic, which has actually increased this year. And that's really in contrast to a lot of other properties. And the reason is because of the strength of the brand. And we generate a lot of traffic from our brand that continues Uh, that's been enhanced by the investment that we put in our brand over many years. And we think that that is a very important point as we think about how channel distribution is going to change over time. Uh, what we've seen is a really significant increase in traffic from the AI platforms. Um, you know, in excess of a thousand percent growth over the last year, but the traffic coming from there is still very small, but it is obviously going to be a very important channel going forward. And we'll be focusing a lot of our efforts on making sure that we have the same level of visibility and profile there, which we do, actually. And that's really down, again, to strength the brand, plus also the content and so on and so forth. So I think that's a future opportunity for us as we think ahead. On the EVA capability, do you think this is where this really sort of makes a big difference? Because That capability is able to do things which other AI agents will not be able to do, and specifically because it will be built around capabilities that will have deep access to our data and also enable them to take actions, for example, like freezing your credit report or retrieving your score or so on and so forth. And we've seen really significant engagement on that, over 2 million interactions so far. So I think we're pleased with that, and I think we'll continue to build out those propositions. So all in all, I think as we look forward, we're excited about where that goes because we think the strength of our brand, the capability on the platform continues to position us as a winner in the longer term. On the FICO score thing, yeah, that is a part of our offer. We've had that for a long time. It was introduced over 10 years ago. I think since we introduced that, there's many, many more, you know, much more value that we provide on that platform. So the reliance on that as a value proposition, it's still important, but it's not as important as it was. And we'll continue to, you know, evaluate all those propositions as we go forward.

speaker
Unknown Participant
Analyst

Ben, any further questions?

speaker
Operator

no not for me thanks thank you okay yeah sorry go ahead apologies i just wanted to give another reminder for the participants if they would like to ask a question please press star one one and now we have another question just give us a moment And it comes line of Simon Clinch from Rothschild and Co. Redburn. Your line is open. Please ask your question.

speaker
Simon Clinch
Analyst, Rothschild & Co

Hi. Sorry for sneaking just one final one in. Just a very quick one, Lloyd. Just on a share repurchase, you basically, as far as I can see, you've pretty much completed your guide for the year. Just how do we think about capital allocation in the back half of the year?

speaker
Lloyd
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah. So we obviously update on capital allocation really once a year in May. You've seen the strength of cash generation. We finished the half at 1.8 times. If we don't do any further acquisitions for the rest of the year, we'd finish the year at about 1.5 times. We expect to do some other acquisitions. We've got a good pipeline. But you can see with this level of cash generation, we have a lot of financial flexibility for capital allocation. So I look forward to updating you in May.

speaker
Ben Wild
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Great. Thank you.

speaker
Operator

Thank you. Dear speakers, there are no further questions for today, and I'd like to hand the conference over to your speaker, Brian Cushing, for any closing remarks.

speaker
Brian Cassin
Chief Executive Officer

Great. Well, thank you. So that concludes today's session. Thanks, everybody, for joining us. Hope you all have a good day, and we look forward to speaking to you again in January for our Q3 update.

speaker
Operator

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now all disconnect. Have a nice day.

Disclaimer

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