Finecobank Banca Fine Spa

Good afternoon. This is the College Call Conference operator. Welcome and thank you for joining the Fineco Bank third quarter 2023 results conference call. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, they may signal an operator by pressing star and zero on their telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Alessandro Foti, CEO of Fineco Bank. Please go ahead, sir.

Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining our third quarter 2023 results conference call. Adjusted net profits in the first nine months of 2023 was equal to $454.2 million, halved by 50.1% year-on-year, and by 68.4% excluding first nine-month 2022 profits from treasury management. Adjusted revenues at $916.7 million, increasing by 34% year-on-year, and mainly supported by net financial income, which is sustained by our clients' very sticky and valuable transactional liquidity. and by investing, thanks to the volume effect and the higher control of the value chain by FinEco Asset Management. Operating costs were under control at $215.8 million, increasing by 4.8% year-on-year, by excluding costs related to the growth of the business. Adjusted cost-income ratio was at 23.5%, decreasing year-on-year and confirming operating leverage as a key strength of the bank. In the first nine months of the year, Finicol recorded an outstanding commercial performance thanks to our organic growth strategy. First of all, we recorded a further acceleration in our new client acquisition, increasing by around 22% year-on-year. This is particularly healthy and remarkable growth considering that we have not changed our client acquisition strategy and that the competitive environment is crowded with short-term aggressive commercial offers rates. Let me also underline that October recorded the best number in terms of new clients acquisition since March 2021 with around 12,000 new clients. Second, our net sales confirmed to be very solid 6.8 billion inflows in the first nine months of the year. The trend is confirmed also in October with net sales at around 500 million, which deposits at minus 900 million and influenced by one-offs due to the subscription for 620 million of BTP Valore in the recent auction. where we had a 3.5% market share, and by liquidity being temporarily used by short-term traders buying on the dips, both equity and Govis, given the market correction in the month. As a consequence, brokerage recorded a very strong month, the second this year, with estimated revenues at 17 million, more than 50% higher compared to the average revenue in the period 2017-2019, and more than 25% higher versus October 2022. Asset under management at around 10 million, due to around 220 million half-loss from the low-margin insurance business, and asset under custody at around 1.4 billion. Third, our network of personal financial advisors confirmed to be, once again, the leader in terms of productivity within the asset-gatherer space, thanks to our powerful organic growth engine and fintech DNA. Our capital position confirmed to be strong and safe with a common equity-to-run ratio at 24.7% and the leverage ratio at 4.96%. On the right-hand side of the slide, you can find a summary of our 2023 and 2024 guidance. More in detail. On net financial income, we expect it to increase in 2023 by at least 70% versus 2022. For 2024, we expect a potential slight decline here and here with a progressive stabilization of deposits. On investing revenues, we confirm our 2023 revenue guidance expected to increase high single digit compared to 2022 with higher after-tax margin. For 2024, we expect revenues increasing high single digit here and here with a neutral market assumption. On brokerage, we confirm for 2023 expected revenues strong with a floor higher versus pre-COVID period. On operating costs, we expect a 6% growth year-on-year in 2023, not including around 2 million of additional costs for FinEco asset management strategic discontinuity and at least around 3 million of additional marketing expenses. For 2024, we expect a growth around 6% year-on-year, not including additional costs for both Finic asset management and marketing expenses. We expect our cost of risk in a range between five and nine basis points in 2023. And finally, we expect in 2023 a growing CT1 and leverage ratio year on year. Let's now move on slide five. As announced, adjusted net profit in the first nine months of the year at 454.2 million in a very challenging macro scenario, increasing by 50.1% year-on-year and by 68.4% excluding profits from treasury management, realized in the first nine months of last year. Revenues at 916.7 million, up by 34% year-on-year, as we have been able to catch the strong acceleration of the structural trends in place. The strong growth of our net financial income, increasing by 95.1% year-on-year, supported by our high-quality and capital line net interest income, growing by 140.6% year-on-year, and with a low contribution by lending. Net commissions increased by 4.5% year-on-year, mainly thanks to the contribution of investing and banking. As for the trading profit, let me remind you that in this line, there are accounted 4.8 million related to the ineffectiveness of hedging derivatives in accordance with the accounting standards IFRS 9, compared to plus 14.6 million in the 9-month 2022. The value is influenced both by the spread between the euro short-term rate and the euro rebar and by the amount of the fair value of the derivatives. Excluding these effects, the decline in the trading profit is mainly related to the lower brokerage activity due to the level of market volumes. Operating costs at 215.8 million were under control and increasing by 4.8% year-on-year, excluding costs quickly related to the growth of the business, mainly additional cost for Finic Asset Management to further expand its business and have a higher control of the value chain, additional marketing cost to catch the strong momentum of the business. Let's now move on to slide six for a deep dive on the performance of the investing business. Investing revenues were equal to 240.6 million in the first nine months, increasing by 5.6% year-on-year. Let me please remind you the quality of our investing revenues, mirroring our transparent and fair approach towards clients as a result. Our revenues are exclusively driven by recurring management fees, with only 1% contribution from placement fees and no performance fees at all. In the first nine months of the year, management fees margins after tax at 53.6 basis points, increasing year on year thanks to the strong contribution by Finneco Asset Management. Let me please underline that this set of results is particularly remarkable given the more challenging marketing environment for the asset management industry. Also, let me underline that the bank has already started to deeply reshape its product and services offer to better fit with the new context. This will give more fuel to our growth engine in the month ahead and will allow us to keep on adding new market shares. Let's now move on to slide seven for a focus on our asset management company. As you know, Finneco Asset Management is progressively taking more control of the investing value chain, resulting in higher revenues and margins for the group. The contribution of Finneco Asset Management to the group asset under management net sale is further improving regardless of the macro scenario, moving from 75% in the first nine months of 2022 to 117% in the first nine months of 2023. At the end of September, the contribution of FAM out of the total stock of assets under management of the bank moved to 33.5% from 29.1% in the third quarter of 2022. The commercial performance by Finnecos management this year has been outstanding, not only in absolute, but also in relative terms. Down in the slide, we are showing a benchmarking based on our suggestion in retail net sales as of September. As you can see, our Irish company delivered the second-best net sales compared to the most relevant asset managers operating in Italy. This remarkable result, despite the very challenging environment, is due to Fineco Asset Management's effectiveness in quickly developing the right set of products to catch what clients are currently looking for. Let's now move on to slide 8 for a focus on brokerage. Brokerage, as usual, registered an excellent first nine months at $140 million, resulting in a monthly average more than 35% higher compared to the monthly average revenues in the period 2017-2019, thus confirming a structurally higher floor compared to the pre-pandemic levels regardless of market conditions. As a reminder, October has proven to be a very strong month, thanks to our short-term traders buying, which both on the dips, both equity and Govis, given the market correction in the month. This resulted in the second best month this year, with revenues at around 17 million of revenues, more than 50% higher versus the average in the period 2017-2019, and more than 25% higher compared to October 2022. Let me remind you that the growth of the brokerage business is driven by the contribution of three structural components. First, the continuous process of deep reshape of our brokerage business. Second, the widening of our client base using the platform with active investors growing significantly in absolute terms and standing around 35% above the average level of 2018 and 2019. we are continuously increasing our retail market share. As you can see on slide nine, all this is translating in a very resilient revenues generation regardless of market context, delivering a far better performance compared to peers. Let's now move on to slide 11 for a focus on our capital ratio. Finneco confirmed once again its capital position well above requirements, on the wave of a safe balance sheet. Common equity tier one ratio at 24.73% and the leverage ratio at 4.96%. While risk weighted assets at 4.48 billion and total capital ratio at 35.9% as of September, 2023. As for the liquidity ratios, liquidity coverage ratio is at 800 and net stable funding ratio at 389%, while the ratio of high-quality liquid assets on deposits is at 66%, well above the average of the industry, and positioning Finneco as the best positive outlier, as you can see on slide 12. Let's now move to slide 14 for a focus on the acceleration of our commercial dynamics. Let me spend a few words on the strong acceleration in our new client acquisition, which is even more remarkable considering the context. As you can see from the graph on the top of the slide, new clients in the first 10 months were 22.7% higher year on year. These results have been achieved keeping our marketing strategy unchanged when it comes to the new client acquisitions and translating a quality and sticky client base key to grow and healthy business in a long-term horizon. Let me also underline the very positive further acceleration in October, recording the strongest month since March 2021 in terms of new clients, thanks to the new marketing initiatives undertaken by the bank. In particular, the figure benefited by the Fineco Days, a very innovative marketing campaign combining both advertising and physical events. As a reminder, let me also underline that we have recently increased the efficiency of our marketing engine, thanks to our brand new onboarding process. This optimization has significantly improved our conversion rate while also lowering acquisition costs, as you can see down in the slide. Let me also quickly comment on slide 18 as another key driver of our organic growth is the best-in-class productivity of our personal financial planners, helped by our FinTech DNA. As you can see in the slide, the productivity of our network in terms of assets under management has been by far the best one within the sector. Let's now move on to slide 19. The granularity and thickness of our deposit base is confirmed quarter by quarter, with the transaction liquidity slightly above 90% of our client deposits. As you can see from the slide, private banking clients have further reduced their excess liquidity, while our deposits continue to be extremely granular, with an average ticket of around €18,000 and a median ticket of €4,500. On top of this, differently from other players, mostly focused on brokerage and investing, our sub-solution relies on a fully-fledged banking platform with 50% of our clients crediting salary and pension with us. Let's now move on slide 20 to deep dive on net sales of our deposits during the first nine months of this year. In the graph on the top of the slide, we show the trend seen this year at the index level on the side deposits. The most recent figures are related to August, and as you may see, Finneco Bank deposit base has been holding up much better compared to the system, which in order to stabilize deposit base has been very aggressive in offering time deposits. Our relative performance is explained by the very different nature of our deposits, which for the vast majority are represented by a very sticky transactional liquidity. Down in the slide, we show our usual breakdown of deposits net sales, where we once again saw an increase in the net new liquidity before investments. As you can see, in the first nine months of the year, the bank collected $14.5 billion of liquidity coming from salary and pensions and $9.3 billion from bank transfers. After expenses in cash, bills, and taxes, deposits were at $5.6 billion, increasing compared to September. Once taking into account investments in assets under management and assets under custody, The final result is minus 3.8 billion deposits net sales. As in October, investments have been quite high due to the one-off of the BTP Valore auction and to the brokerage clients buying the dips both on equity and bonds. On the graph down on the right, we confirmed the trend in terms of liquidity flows per cluster of clients. Clients with total financial assets below $100,000 euros increased amounts of liquidity in the bank, and this is mainly transactional. On the other hand, the cash sorting process has been 100% driven by wealthier clients, which in the past accumulated excessively waiting to be invested. For private banking clients, the liquidity as a percentage of total financial assets is at 11% as of October, the lowest level since 2015, suggesting that they are approaching the floor Finally, please note that the new clients acquired in the year also brought positive liquidity. Let's now move on slide 22 for a focus on our guidance. Let's now focus on our 2023 guidance and 2024 outlook. On banking revenues, we expect net financial income in 2023 to grow by at least 70% here and here. For 2024, we expect a potential slight decline here or near, with a progressive stabilization of deposits as wealthier customers leading the cash sorting process have already used a lot of their excess liquidity. Overall, banking fees are expected stable compared to 2022, and the same holds for 2024 compared to 2023. On investing, Taking into consideration the market effect up to the end of October, we confirmed 2023 expected revenues to increase high single-digit year-on-year with higher management fee margins after tax. For 2023, we expect Finneco asset management retail net sales at around 3 billion and Finneco overall asset under management net sales at around 3 billion. For 2024, we expect revenues to increase high single-digit year-on-year with a neutral market assumption. Brokerage revenues are expected to remain strong, with a floor in relative terms with respect to the market context that is definitely higher than in the pre-COVID period. Operating costs in 2023 are expected to grow at around 6% year-on-year, not including around 2 million of additional costs related to Finneco asset management, strategic discontinuity, at at least 3 million of additional marketing expenses. For 2024, operating costs are expected to grow at around 6% year-on-year, not including additional costs for both financial asset management and marketing expenses. Cost income, we expect to hit below 30% in 2024, thanks to the scalability of our platform and from the strong operating gearing we have. Systemic charges for the year are expected at around 50 million, On capital ratios for 2023, we expect a growing CT1 ratio and the leverage ratio, here and here, currently with the combination of both a strong acceleration in the growth of the bank and the distribution of generous dividends. On dividend per share, in full year 2024, we expect a hit increasing, also thanks to the progressive delivery on our strategic discontinuities. Cost of risk was equal to five basis points, thanks to the quality of our lending portfolio that is offered exclusively to our loyal customer base. In 2023, we expect a hit in a range between five and nine basis points. The one-off windfall tax will be allocated as non-distributable reserve. Finally, we expect a robust and high-quality net sales keeping our priority in direction of asset under management. Thank you for your time. We can now open the call to questions.

Excuse me, this is the call call conference operator. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their telephone. To remove yourself from the question queue, please press star and two. Please pick up the receiver when asking questions. Anyone with a question may press star and one at this time. The first question is from Zurra Guelfi of Citigroup.

Hi, good afternoon. I have a few questions. I'm a bit puzzled on your 2024 outlook. Can you give us a little bit of color on what are the moving parts of your NII for 2024, especially on the fixed income portfolio, which the yield seems to have changed significantly versus the previous quarter? The second question is on the investing margin. You used to give us a detailed guidance on margin. This is not there anymore. And while I understand the change in the guidance for net sales because of the market trend, I would like to have a little bit more color on the margin progression because some should contribute positively to the margin progression. And the last one, if I may, is on capital return. We are now indicating an increase in dividend per share holds for 2024, and you have a very strong both leverage ratio and capital return. So can you give us some color on capital allocation, because previously you were discussing about different options? Thank you.

Thank you, Azura. So let me start by on the NII. So the moving parts so clearly are we are considering, as usual, as a point of reference, the expected evolution of interest rates by the market. So this is the first point. Second, we have also the evolution of the base of deposits. And on the fixed income portfolio, there is anything particularly different from what we have been used to present the market. The only probably still remaining point on the table is related to the clearly the point on the Finneco has the lowest percentage of Italian Govis in the portfolio. And clearly we have been challenged by some investor if this is going to be the case to stay. And so now there is a discussion underway in the bank on this point. But this has not been embedded in the guidance we are giving on the net interest income. It's a potential evolution that is going to be discussed into the bank. Clearly, at the moment, there is not much to discuss because we don't have any new liquidity to invest. but we expect that this topic is going to return on the table in the next few months, considering that we expect a progressive stabilization of deposits, and so clearly this is going to make, again, additional liquidity available to be invested. On investing margins, we are just giving a guidance based on the revenues for a very simple reason, because there is not enough visibility on what's going on on the insurance wrapper. And regarding the insurance wrapper, there is a very clear trade-off between volumes and margins because we built our guidance based on two different scenarios. One with... the outflows by the insurance wrapper continuing in a strong way. In this case, what you could expect is probably lower volumes but with even better margins. Or a second scenario in which there is a progressive deceleration of the disinvestment by the insurance wrapper. In this case, you can expect higher volumes but with lower margins. So there is a And it's very difficult to give any precise guidance on this point right now because the situation is clearly underway. Regarding capital return, the increasing dividend per shares in 2024 is perfectly coherent with the very strong capital position of the bank. We confirm that the bank is in the process of keeping on building up additional capital because we expect not just in 2024, but also in the following years, a continuously growing CT1 ratio and leverage ratio. And so this means that the bank is, at a certain point, has to take a decision in what to do with what is going to emerge as an At the moment, nothing has been discussed in that. The only thing that is pretty evident is that at a certain point, the bank is going to start the process of considering how to use the excess of capital that is expected to keep on building up.

The next question is from Giovanni Razzoli of Deutsche Bank.

Good afternoon and thank you for taking my questions. The first one is on the guidance for 2024 on net financial income and investing fees. Is it fair to assume that in the guidance for net financial income for 2024, the contribution from properties from treasury management will be close to zero. And the second question on the guidance for 24 on investing fees, what assumptions have you made in terms of inflows of FAM for 24? I understand it is a little bit difficult, I think, given the federal moving parts to make a precise assumption, also given your previous comment on the margins. Is it fair to assume that the fund inflows, which are embedded in the guidance of 2024 for investing fees, should be at least in the region of 3 billion euros? And another question is on the Eurovita. If I'm not mistaken, now clients are free to redeem their policies. I want to understand whether this is correct. If this can impact the deposits trend going forward, And you can remind us what is the stock of Eurovita policy that you still have as of now and whether this can actually impact to some extent the investment policy of the bank. And the very last question, allow me to ask you this, but given the several guidance that you provided us, the NII slide decline and the increase in the investing revenue given the magnitude of those two items, is it fair to assume that the earnings will peak or less than equal in 2023. So in 2024 or less than equal, we should see a decline in profits. Thank you.

So first of all, I have to apologize with Azura because I didn't answer to the more color margin progression thanks to FAM, but I'm taking the opportunity by the questions made by by Mr. Razzoli. And so I'm just jumping directly on the... Clearly, Finnecos Admin is going to keep on playing the lion's share in contributing in keeping robust our margins on the investing business. And they are going to remain the largest part of the net sales... on investing products also going throughout 2024. Clearly, I cannot give you an extremely precise guidance on the amounts because there is a very strong trade-off between, for example, what's going on on the insurance welfare and the fund inflows because clearly if we have, for example, an acceleration in the in the outflows on the insurance wrapper, it's fair to assume that a decent part is going to be captured by Finicost Net Management. So, coming back to the guidance, 2034 on net financial income and investment fees. On net financial income, the contribution from per-assurance management, yes, it's fair to say that it is expected to remain at zero. And Eurovita. Eurovita, clearly, for sure, we don't expect any negative impact on the deposit trends going forward. That is the contrary, because if we have massive disinvestments by Eurovita, it's reasonable to assume that at least this is the is also the historical trend, at least a certain percentage is going to remain on the current account of the bank. So considering that the Eurovita case has not been anything that we can consider as something great, but in this case, in terms of on the deposits, can play just in a positive way. On the last question, may you repeat what you mean? Because we missed what you mean with PIC. PIC on what?

Yes, so if I look at the consensus figure for 2023, and I incorporate the guidance that you are providing in terms of NII, slightly kind, and the double-digit growth, single-digit growth in investing fees, and they square it with growing the cost base, it seems to me that you will see the peak of the profits of the bottom line in 2023, given the trends you are giving us.

As you know, never we guided the market on the net profits. And clearly there are too many components that can play a role in determining the final net profits. And so in my opinion, I think that probably the main driver there is clear that is showing very clearly the consolidation of the bank at a very high level of profitability. And so then to tell you if this is going to the peak or not, There are, we need to put in place too many assumptions and so on that we, no, we are not guiding on this.

Okay, okay.

Thank you very much, Emily. Thanks.

The next question is from Domenico Santoro of HSBC.

Hi. Hi. Good afternoon. Thanks for the presentation. A number of questions to dig more on your NII guidance and fees, and then one on systemic charge. Can you tell us when you expect the repricing of the lending book to end? Because this is adding $5 million quarter by quarter and is an offset, of course, if there is any pressure from financial investments contribution. The other question is on Q4 with all the visibility that you have at this point, whether you expect NII to have picked in Q3 or to be stable in Q4 or down or up a direction would be nice to have. The other question is on the guidance for 2024 NII. I see that the average your EBO that you use in your guidance in 2024 is higher than 2023. And also the base, I guess, the ending base for 2023 is higher. So I'm just wondering at this point, which kind of assumption you made in terms of deposit outflows. And can you If you could elaborate also on the initiatives that you have in place in order to stabilize a bit the deposit base going forward. The question on investing fees is instead of margins, because with all the comments that we have made so far, I would have expected, you know, the switch from the insurance, the FAM, I would have expected Q3 margins to be up or at least stable when i see them down i guess i wonder whether this is just due to market effect in the in the third quarter and then how much is the pot of insurance wrap in total that of course is part of your guidance for investing fees and then on the banking charges banking the line of provision that you use so the deposit scheme and the resolution fund I see your guidance for 2023 but what about 2024 because all the other banks are expecting this contribution to disappear but it's still a drug on your profitability so a guidance for 2024 also 2025 would be nice to have thank you

Let me start by the first one. I'm sorry, but what do you mean exactly repricing of the lending book to him?

So I'm not sure that I... In simple terms, when I see the breakdown of your NII, right? The NII that comes from the lending book, it keeps growing quarter by quarter. So this is, I guess, also due to the repricing.

No, but this is driven by the rates because we are not repricing it.

It's just... Yeah, yeah, yeah, exactly. Automatic repricing, I mean. So when do you expect this repricing to end?

It depends on what's going on in the market. So as soon as we have the three-month URI peaking and stabilizing, this is the end of the repricing of the lending book. So this is very simple.

So there is no time lag, basically?

No, no.

Given that you have... Even that you have also a mortgage portfolio, so it might take a while to apply.

This portfolio, the variable component, there is at worst one month temporal lag, but it's pretty immediate.

So that is done. Considering that this is done, given that rates have stabilized.

If we assume that the ECB is not going to hike again rates, probably yes.

Assuming that rates stay the way they are, the NII that you reported in Q3, is it a pick at this moment with the visibility that you have right now? What's the direction in the fourth quarter?

It probably makes sense in the case we don't have any additional, assuming that the ECV is done with the actions, probably the third quarter can be considered the peak, yes.

And Q4, I mean, what's the direction?

Q4 is not going to be very different, so probably slightly lower, but it's consistent with the guidance we gave of an AI growing, but at least by at least 70% a year or near.

Yeah, sure. At least it might mean.

At least it means that it's going to be higher than 70%.

Sure. In 2024 instead, given that we've basically explained very well Q4, what's the assumption that you have made in terms of deposit outflows, if you can tell us? And if you can also elaborate on the initiatives that you have in place to stop that.

First of all, the assumption is a progressive stabilization of deposits, but this is based on the quite clear evidence. Because let me start by, because it probably can be perceived as a little bit counterintuitive, because when someone is talking about the stabilization of deposits at the end of the month, which we had the highest half-loss, so it seems But the month of October is much better than it looks because, as usual, you have to go throughout the numbers for a very simple reason. Because, first of all, the month of October, as we said, has been affected by the one-off of the placement of the BTP Valore, that this is something happening to us exactly for all the other tanks. And our market share was 3.5%. 620 million. And definitely by June of this year, because June has been the last month in which we had the placement, the last placement of the BTP Valore. And the outflows have been definitely lower. But which is the rationale? The rationale is pretty simple, because when you are looking to Fineco, you have to remember always that Finip is not just a pure asset gatherer or a bank. We are also running by far the largest brokerage platform in Italy. So more than 50% of the Italian retail clients are trading on our platform. So one Italian out of two. We are in control of 26% of the volumes of the Italian stock exchange, considering also the institutional volumes, despite we don't We are not involved in the institutional brokerage business. This means that if there is something big happening in the brokerage world, in the trading world, this, by definition, has an influence on the evolution of our liquidity, but without any structural impact. In June, June has been characterized by being a month with... Nearly the peak of the equity market, because if you remind, the peak of the equity market has been between June and July. And second, we had, in relative terms, the lowest level of the heels on the bonds. And so we had the trading clients settling, because our clients are contrarians. When there is a big move... they are doing exactly the contrary. If the market is going up a lot, they are selling. If the market is going down big, they are buying. So in June, they bought, so they sold equities, and also they bought much less on the secondary market, considering the hits were lower. In October, we had exactly the opposite situation. And so we had the traders' clients that they don't have anything in common with what is done by the normal clients that they are buying Govis for investing their liquidity. These are trading, just trading. The difference between October and June in relative terms, in terms of what they've done, the clients just on the equities, is more than 700 million of euros. And this is huge. But this, as we are saying, is temporary because these clients are not going to stay sit on the equities they bought. As soon as they have a profit, they are going to sell very quickly. And so if you combine together everything of this, the numbers are showing very clearly that the stabilization process deposits is very well underway. And so the assumption is to have a stabilization of the deposit base in terms of action for stabilizing deposits. So we don't need to put in place anything extraordinary because everything is moving, is expected to move in the right direction. So because the bank is expected to keep on gathering in quite abundant amount of deposits liquidity. The clients that they are structurally buying, for example, Govis for liquidity reasons are coming very close to a level below which is very difficult to go below. And so these are the assumptions. And again, October, because we October is, in terms of numbers, if someone has the patience to deep dive into the numbers, it's much better than it looks apparently.

I understand. I thought there were some instruments to lock clients for a period. Vacuity or instant margins in the quarter? I mean, what happened? Is it the market effect to drive a decline in margins? I know that we can see the We can also calculate one.

Yes, but we are talking about a very fractional, so the decline is stable because one, now that my CFO is telling to me that this particle is completely negligible because we cannot describe this as a decline. So let me say that we are in the range of the, yes, it's pretty small. In any case, on the margins, we have to be, the reason why we are not giving precise guidance going forward, because the impact of what's going on on the insurance rapid can be large. So here we have probably 13, 14 billions of insurance products in the portfolio of our clients. And what we tend to see these, So this investment is more an opportunity than a problem, because I'm repeating, so the insurance wrapper for us are by far the least profitable solutions we have on the shelf. So differently by the other players, we don't have an internal factory, and so we are not in control of the value chain. We don't have, for this has been in our choice, We don't have any binding agreements with insurance players. The results that our margins on the insurance buffer are very, very low. And so it's clearly this can make quite a significant difference in terms of composition between volumes and margins. But at the end of the story, what we think is relevant for the market is what is the results in terms of revenues. And we are confident that we expect to grow in the region of high single digit and this without assuming and completely neutral market effect. We think that this is an absolutely amazing result considering the absolutely huge challenges that is faced by the wealth management and asset management industry because all around the world the most part of the players are showing declining revenues and not growing revenues.

Can you give us just the systemic charges for 2024?

I don't know if I'm leaving the floor to our CFO, Lorena, if you want to give an answer on the systemic charges.

Yes, thank you, Alessandro. Good afternoon to everyone. So systemic charges, we have two components, deposit guarantee scheme and single resolution funds. In 2024, the deposit guarantee scheme will reach the target, that is 0.8% of Italian protected deposits. It seems that 2024 will be the last year in which is expected a strong contribution from Italian banks. But the point is that the level target must be maintained also going forward in the following years. and additional contribution will be requested to the banks in two cases, increase of protected deposit or event of bank's failure.

Yes, but Lorena, what is important, we are not different by the other banks. Absolutely. We have the same rules.

Yes, exactly. Regarding single resolution fund, This has already reached the target in 2023, that is equal to 1% of protected deposit at European level. And also for single resolution funds in the following years, we can expect additional contributions in case of increase of protected deposit or event of bank failure. But the most important contribution has already finished for single resolution fund and will finish in 2024 for the deposit guarantee scheme.

Thank you, Lorena.

The next question is from Panos Elinas of Morgan Stanley.

Hi. Most of my questions have been answered, but I have a few follow-ups. On the investing revenues, the guidance for the net sales for this year implies only about 300 million net sales for farm, but for the AUM net sales implies an additional 700 million. That's for November, December, to hit the 3 billion guidance for both. So I was just wondering why is the share of farm lower compared to previous months for the remaining of the year? And then on the 2024... Investing Revenues Guidelines, again, can you maybe give us some of the drivers there? Do you see ongoing challenges in selling funds or, you know, customers opting for fixed income products mainly that are discontinuing? And then on the cash balances from the private banking clients, I think now it's around 6 billion euros. Can you give us maybe a sense how much of that is transactional versus surplus liquidity, and if it's the same split to the rest of the customer base where you said around 90% is transactional? So that's for me. Thank you.

So correct me if I'm wrong. So the first question is you are assuming by the numbers we are giving of a declining – percentage of the share of FAM regarding the remaining part of the year. So this is your point.

Yes, because you guide for both $3 billion, but FAM only has $300 million to go, and AUM has $700 million. So I'm just wondering why is that?

This is a good point, because as I said, As I'm trying to explain, we had to be extremely, to take the guidance on the number, on the net sales on asset under management cautiously because this can be influenced by what's going on on the insurance wrapper. So this is not an indication of a change in what FAM is doing. So please, so it's... And in the case, it's completely relevant for the evolution of the revenues generation. What I'm trying to explain that on the insurance side, there is a lot of action by the clients. And if the clients are a little bit slower in this investing, for example, this can bring at... at the lower percentage in the composition of the final end of the year. But there is not anything interesting in terms of reading by these numbers. And it's much more interesting, the second question, on the ongoing challenges in selling funds. And you are completely right. So we think that the industry overall is expected to face a lot of headwinds, and generally speaking, in two directions. One is clearly, for example, everything is driving in the direction of compression of margins, but as you very well know, Fineco is by far in the Italian landscape, the best position of player for managing this kind of challenge. And second, it's the challenge represented by clients interested in fixed income products. And this is part of the reshape of our product offer. So recently we launched a brand new advisory platform that is extremely broad and is giving the opportunity to our financial planners to provide the advisory to clients on the full range of the solutions we have on the platform, considering also the GOVIs. And so at the moment, what we are observing, it's an extremely... very interesting trend in which, for example, we have clients that they are very happy to pay a fee, an advisory fee for having the financial planner building for them a portfolio made by Govis together with other mutual funds or ETFs or something else. And so what is important is to be ready with an a platform that is able to fulfill the client needs. Fineco, considering that we are a tech company, we are incredibly fast in deploying this solution like this. And for example, the solution that is given to our financial planners, the opportunity to use Govis as a component of an advice portfolio is growing quite rapidly. quite a lot, and so this is a great response to the change in terms of habits by clients. And regarding deposits, now the private banking clients, they have a percentage of liquidity on their total assets of 11%, that clearly is definitely below the historical loss. And so this does not mean that they cannot go even lower. In fact, this is the reason why we are not showing transactional liquidity at 100%. But it's clear that they are progressively approaching a level below which it's impossible that they can go. On the other clients, the so-called small clients, by definition, the percentage represented The transactional liquidity, clearly the percentage of liquidity in their total assets by definition is higher, but this is totally current. The smaller is the client and the more the total assets tend to be in line with the transactional liquidity. For example, the very small clients with few thousands of euros on the current account by definition, that is higher. that 100% is liquidity, but this 100% is transactional liquidity. So this is the reason why we are continuously trying to draw the attention of the market on the average deposits of our clients and the median deposits, because this is showing very clearly that it's the best demonstration that the largest part of the liquidity is transactional. And this is the reason why we are absolutely comfortable in saying that this cash sorting process is approaching an end.

The next question is from Elena Perini of Intesa San Paolo.

Yes, good afternoon, and thank you for taking my questions. Actually, I have only one left, which is about the direct deposits and the outflows. Taking into account what you have said about the fact that the cash shortening is coming to an end, that potential outflows from Eurobeta policies could increase your deposit base, can we assume that The negative minus $3.8 billion that you had year-to-date in the first 10 months of the year in terms of outflows from direct deposit could be considered as a final result for the year. Also, take into account that it is true that in November you have tax payments, but then in December... you also have an additional monthly payment for your clients. I don't know if you can elaborate a bit just to have some more precise guidance on the output from direct deposits. Thank you.

Thank you, Elena. So, as you know, it's very difficult to make such a precise forecast because, for example, we don't need We don't know what's going on in the market, if the market are going to go throughout a big correction or not. But from a seasonal point of view, you're completely right. We are progressively entering in the period of time that tends to be more and more favorable in terms of the liquidity evolution. So this is a matter of fact. And so unless we have anything absolutely disruptive on the market, we can see that this process is going to progressively, the process is going to improve some of the definitions of it. As I explained, the month of October has been a month that is to be read in the proper way. That is much better than it appears. At the same time, this is confirmed by the combination of this with very high numbers on the brokerage side. because the client has been very active buying in this case. But in any case, we are entering in a period of the year that tends to be progressively more benign for the liquidity evolution of the bank.

Okay, thank you very much.

The next question is from Alberto Villa, Intermonte. Please go ahead.

Good afternoon. I think you already answered to Most of the questions about the guidance are just a clarification on the plus 6% in operating costs in 2024. You said it excludes additional expenses. I was wondering if the additional expenses that you are expecting in 2024 are more or less in line with 2023 or you expect a lower impact from these expenses. The second one is a couple of considerations on the new clients onboarding. You had almost 12,000 new client acquisition in October. This is a remarkable figure for sure, but I was asking if the quality and the type of clients is different from the past or if you are acquiring clients with significant assets. and probably linked to this, I've noticed that you are making a lot of advertising for the trading on account. I was wondering what is the success of this initiative and what could be the impact for your brokerage revenues going forward?

First of all, on the additional expense in 2024, on the fund side, We don't see any huge difference with what we had in 2023. On marketing cost, as usual, we are taking an extremely pragmatic approach. Every time we perceive that there are the right conditions for pushing more in terms of client acquisitions and so on, we are going to expand. because Finequa is absolutely in the best position of players for capturing the structural trends. So the favorable conditions are when we don't have any significant, particularly disruptive situation underway that is a little bit taking the attention of the client. But the moment is incredibly favorable for accelerating our growth for a company like Fineco. And now, Paolo Di Grazia, the deputy general manager of the bank, can give you a little bit of flavor of the clients we are onboarding and what's going on on the trading-only account. So, please, Paolo.

Yeah. Good afternoon, everybody. So, basically... We launched the brokerage account, the pure brokerage account. Before the summer, we started investing a few money on September and October. And the goal is actually to better target new clients, especially young clients. So we see this as an opportunity to better target clients, especially young clients, as an entry product. people that they don't want to pay for, they don't want a banking account, they don't need yet a financial planner, they just need a plain, pure brokerage account without costs. So it's just a reshaping for young clients at the moment. So we will see the number in the next coming months. about the new clients onboarding. It's a bit too early to disclose the quality of the clients, so it takes pretty much between three and six months to see the full value of the clients we are acquiring, but we are very confident because most of the clients are coming from the Fineco Days initiatives, so that means they're coming from the financial planner So usually when the financial planner is open account to a client, there is a good chance that the client is willing to invest with us. So we're quite confident on the quality also.

Okay, thanks. If I may follow up on the new products. You mentioned about the products that are capturing clients' interest in fixed income, government bonds, et cetera. I was wondering if these products have a similar margin to the rest of the offering or are lower margin.

It's difficult to say exactly because clearly we are talking about the We are talking about the – it depends on the – because the financial planners are left completely free to determine what they want to charge to clients in terms of advisory fees. So there is a range and so on. So clearly there is – but we can say that the margins are extremely interesting, particularly if you are able to use internally this wrapper also. simple and easy solutions provided by FAN. And this, in any case, is another reason why it's important now to be focused on revenue generation and not just being driven by the margins. Because by definition, in an environment like this, you have to expect some kind of trade-off between volumes and margins, not just driven by the by the insurance wrapper, but everything. So if we have in front of us a client that is, for example, a big client that is interested in an advisory solution, very simple, straightforward, made by mostly, I don't know, Govis and ETFs, clearly this is less profitable, but this is a great opportunity for accelerating in the volumes. At the end of the story, the what is important and the revenues we are generating. The message that we would like to transfer is a world that is in an incredibly fast and deep transformation and Fineco is by far a greatly positioned company for capturing this. And all the fixed income the clients are buying is going to emerge going forward with the progressive Stabilization and decline of rates has a secular opportunity for accelerating in a big way in the investing business. We are extremely positive on these developments because the clients are investing. This is the most important thing. And then now we are taking on board all the fuel we need in order to make the investing business growing in a big way going forward.

Thank you very much.

The next question is from Gianluca Ferrari of Mediobanca. Please go ahead.

Yes, hi, good afternoon. Charles Sandro, three from me. The first one is what was the success of the promo cash park you made in October? The second one is if you got already some requests for surrenders from Eurovita policies. And if so, if you can split between unit and GNA savings. And the third, if I'm not mistaken, your 200 million private placement to Unicredit is callable right now. And I was wondering, I presume you are not calling it. If you can share with us the resetting rule for that 81. Thank you.

So the cash park initiatives only is just on the new liquidity at the service of making the life easier for our pressure planners for making clients investing into the market. So it is just a combination. At the moment, the numbers there are absolutely pretty small and not anything is just started. But in any case, the main rationale behind it is to support in a better way our financial planners in their process of making clients investing. So it's a kind of combination between liquidity and investing. On the Eurovita, this is the second day. that from the operative second day, for the time being, the numbers are very, very small. So we think that it's too early to call to say what's going on. Because for the time being, the numbers, I'm asking to Lorena that the numbers on EuroVita are absolutely negligible. But I think, again, it's too early to say what we can expect to happen there. And on the Unicredit 31, again, Lorraine, if you want to give some color.

So Unicredit bond, we have fixed the new coupon equal to 7.36% until June 2028. And there are call dates each six months in June and December. The current reset spread is below the current spread on the market. It is in the regional, if I remember correct, 450 basis points, more or less.

So 7.35, if I understood correctly, right?

The coupon until June 2028 is the new coupon that we have fixed in June 2023.

Okay. Thank you very much. Very clear. Thank you, Lorena.

The next question is from Isabel Ettrick of Autonos Research.

Hi there. Thanks for taking my questions. I have two, please. So the first one is on the cost-income ratio guidance for 2024. So in the nine months this year, you're already operating at a cost-income ratio less than 30%. And if we expect that your net interest income is going to decrease in 2024, should we actually expect a slight increase in the cost income ratio, but still below 30%? And then related to this, how far below 30% for your cost income ratio do you think you can sustainably operate in the medium to long term? And then just a question on the cost of risk outlook beyond 2023, do you expect a material increase in your cost of risk or do you expect it to stay Fairly benign. Thank you.

On the cost-income ratio, we can say that also going forward on the medium-long-term trend, we expect to stay, to remain comfortably below the 30% level, yes. So the 2023, clearly, we experienced a massive drop, so it makes sense that going forward we can have some kind of consolidation trend. a little bit higher, but the cost income is going to remain definitely very well comfortable below 30% going forward in the medium term. And the cost of risk, yes, because our lending business is absolutely an ancillary business. We don't have any great appetite for the lending business, and we... And we are extremely restrictive just for our best, very well-known clients. So, no, we don't expect any significant change in the cost of risk.

Brilliant. Thank you. Can I just circle back onto the cost-income ratio, so I understand your point about it staying below, sustainably below 30% over the medium to long term. But if we think about what 2022-2024 looks like versus 2023, Should we expect a linear decline or should we expect maybe a slight pickup if your net interest income is decreasing slightly in 2024?

We expect that probably the cost-income ratio in 2024 is going to experience some kind of modest uptick. Yes, so this makes sense.

Brilliant. Thank you very much.

As a reminder, if you wish to register for a question, please press star and one on your telephone. The next question is from Adele Palama of UBS. Please go ahead.

Hi, good afternoon. Thanks for the presentation. I have two questions. One is on the sensitivity on NII, if you can provide the sensitivity on NII. 100 basis point decline in rates. And then the second question is on the German launch. Can we assume that that is suspended for now? Thanks a lot.

On the sensitive NII, I leave the floor to our CFO. So, Lorena, please.

Yes, the sensitivity on a parallel shift of 100 basis points of interest rate curve is slightly above 100 million euros.

And on the German launch, as we explained after we left from UK, now we are taking our time on reasoning on the what's next eventually at the European level. And so the plan is not suspended, but we are taking our time and thinking about it.

Okay, thanks. Mr. Foti, there are no more questions registered at this time.

Thank you to everybody for the very interesting questions. As usual, we are available for any follow-up questions in the next few days. So thank you again for attending our conference.