Fortum Oyj Corp Ord

Good morning everyone. A warm welcome to Fortum's joint webcast and news conference for the investor community and media on our first quarter 2023 results. My name is Ingela Ylves and I'm head of investor relations at Fortum. This event is being recorded and a replay will be provided on our website later today. With me here in the studio are our CEO Markus Rauramo and for the first time in this role our new CFO Tiina Tuomela, who has returned to Fortum after two years at Uniper. Markus and Tiina will present Fortum's first quarter, 23 figures and the group's performance. But before moving into the results, Markus will comment on the Russian situation and walk you through the impacts from the seizure of our Russian subsidiary. After the presentations, we will then open up for questions. And we have reserved one and a half hours for the entire webcast event, including the Q&As, and want to reserve some time in the end also for the Finnish media to be able to ask their questions in Finnish. So when we're ready with the Q&A here for the international audience, we will then switch to Finnish with the Finnish media. Okay, I now hand over to Markus to start.

Thank you very much, Ingela. A warm welcome to our investor call also from my side. As said, I will start with Russia and provide you some insights on that. I will then talk a bit about our new strategy and how we are proceeding with the execution. Then I will present the underlying first quarter earnings and performance of our continuing operations excluding Russia. Tiina will walk you through the numbers in more details and also elaborate on the impact of the Russian impairments and deconsolidation. But first, I'll shortly comment my remote work. As we already communicated before or after our AGM, that I had some pre-planned medical operation that was already in the plans and had to be done. That operation went really well. I had no sick leave and was intensively, actually more intensively than I probably thought, working remotely. The only visible impact and only impact that I had was the obvious loss of hair, which you can see here. Now I'm back in the office. It feels really, really good to be again with our team, with the whole Fortum team, all of our employees and with full speed and full energy implementing our great strategy that we announced earlier this year. But now let me start the presentation by commenting on the RASAN situation. April 25th marked another point of escalation in the war that Russia is waging in Ukraine and against Europe through energy. The new presidential decree provides a guise under which the Russian authorities have caused the change of our subsidiary PAO Fortum CEO and seized control of our assets in Russia. I very purposefully say guys, because there is absolutely no legitimate reason for Russia's actions. Our power plants in Russia are the most modern and efficient in the market. They have been maintained to high industry standards and operated normally, producing heat and electricity to their customers. We have also consistently sought an exit from Russia. Based on extensive interest by multiple buyer candidates, we have applied for permission to sell the operations to both Russian and international buyers. However, we have not received the approval. So you see that the argument that the presidential decree was necessary to protect energy security in Russia simply does not hold. We consider Russia's actions to be a crude violation of international law and a violation of Fortum's rights as a foreign investor. and we are preparing to defend our rights. This being said, Russia's actions mark a point of no return for us. We have no control over the assets or their operation anymore. The de facto loss of control of PEO Fortum triggers a full deconsolidation of our Russian assets. All of our Russian assets, including our shareholding in TGC1 and our shares in the joint ventures, will be classified as discontinued operations in the second quarter of this year, in line with the timing of the triggering event. All of our Russian assets will be also fully written down in Q2. Thus, there are two financial effects to be recorded in Q2. First, we record impairments of the full book value of 1.7 billion euros. Secondly, we have ruble-related negative translation effects of 1.9 billion euros from exchange rate changes over the years. Tina will walk you through the impact on our financials in more detail shortly, but I want to comment on the equity and debt already now. When it comes to group equity, the impairments do have an impact, while the translation effects do not. In our financials, you can see that the group equity at the end of first quarter was at 9.8 billion euros, and the parent company equity stood at 12.2 billion at the end of December. So we can conclude that both will remain sufficient also after the impairments. Further, the impairments and the discontinuation have no impact on Fortum's financial net debt, excluding Russia, as we already earlier have presented the net debt. The internal financing, i.e. the shareholder loan, has no impact on our leverage and financial position. To conclude, our overall financial position remains strong, with financial net debt excluding Russia at 900 million euros and the ratio for financial net debt to comparable EBITDA excluding Russia at 0.4 times at the end of Q1. Our total investments in Russia amount to approximately 6 billion euros. Over the years, some 4 billion euros have been invested in the Russian operations. However, this has to a large part been financed through cash flow generated in Russia. Since 2008, the Russian segment has generated more than 4 billion euros of EBITDA. Consequently, the net cash loss comprising the investment to acquire the Russian operations received dividends and net financing totals some 2 billion euros. Our chapter in the East has now ended. Russia is not part of our future, nor does our exit in any way jeopardize the successful execution of our new strategy. In the second quarter, we will close our books on the operations in Russia permanently. Then a few words to recap our new strategy that we announced in March. Renewed Fortum is built on strong earnings power, clean power generation at scale and very low specific emissions. Our first priority is to deliver reliable clean energy. We create value with our best in class operations. We have a strong track record of optimizing our portfolio successfully, both in low and high price scenarios. These are our core competencies. We also have the expertise and the ability to further develop our portfolio and to ensure sustainable earnings. Our second priority is to drive the decarbonisation of industries. We will extract value from growth opportunities in the energy transition. This will not only require our expertise, but also investment discipline. We continue to have a solid financial position that we will preserve and therefore have to be prudent in our capital allocation and be selective with growth projects. Thus, we want to grow, but be selective. We will build a project pipeline for the future and will execute on our ongoing investment projects. This enables us to manage in the current prevailing uncertainty, as it is difficult to predict how the market will develop in the next couple of years. Our third priority is to transform and develop. To secure the successful execution of our strategy, we as Fortum will develop the way we work and improve our efficiency according to our new operating model. We have to carefully manage the current volatile and uncertain operating environment, have to manage and reduce our risks, while simultaneously take advantage of prevailing good power market conditions. So, what are the concrete actions that we have taken so far? First, in the first quarter, we were granted a new operating license for our Lovisa nuclear power plant until the end of 2050. The Lovisa lifetime extension until 2050 offers up to 170 terawatt-hours of additional CO2-free power with capex of approximately 1 billion euros over some 25 years. This is a concrete example of ensuring productivity in the long run, alongside our ongoing rebuild of the dam at Fotsuhuvud hydropower plant in Sweden, as well as the wind projects that we are now constructing in Finland. I'm also very pleased that the TVO's long awaited third Olkiluoto nuclear power plant unit in Finland started regular power generation in April and commercial operation in May, which strongly supports the Nordic security of supply. Second, in the first quarter, we announced partnerships with the Finnish steel company Autokumpu and UK-based Rolls-Royce SMR related to a two-year nuclear feasibility study covering both small modular reactors, SMRs, and conventional nuclear. These collaborations are additions to the earlier announced collaboration with Helen in Finland, EDF in France, and Shandfull Next AB in Sweden. We also launched a pre-feasibility study with Metza Group to examine the technological and business potential of further processing of wood-derived carbon dioxide. Finally, a few words on the ongoing internal changes. Now that we have our new leadership team in place, we are adapting the rest of the organization to the new business structure. This enables us to take a more customer-centric approach. We will create value by increasing our efficiency. Improving our efficiency and risk management starts with the way we work, how we recalibrate our cost base and how we improve our cost competitiveness. Although Nordic power system is largely based on clean power, it is still affected by the volatility of commodity prices, mainly driven by the continental gas fire generation. As you recall, during spring and summer last year, we saw gas prices climb to unprecedented levels as Europe pushed to refill gas storages in preparation for winter under extreme uncertainty over supplies. In the fall, prices started to ease with higher filling levels in Europe, higher LNG supplies and curb demand as a result of already high prices, fuel switching and savings measures. Through Q4 2022 and Q1 2023, lower gas prices and consequently lower power prices were supported by the mild winter. At the end of Q1 this year, gas storage levels were approximately 55% full. With gas storages consistently at good levels, the market is now much calmer about Europe's security of supply going forward. And this is reflected in lower gas forward prices. The Nordic system price, both spot and futures, declined steeply in lockstep with the continental European and UK power prices. Products for the rest of the year 23 are currently trading at around 60 euro per megawatt hour and for 2024 around 70 euro per megawatt hour. Although we are talking about much lower levels than in the autumn, forward prices are elevated compared to the historical price range. Then I'll move over to the first quarter financial KPIs. What you see here are the comparable headline KPIs for Fortum Group's first quarter continuing operations. So these exclude Uniper for the year 2022. We also present all relevant KPIs excluding Russia in the same way as we did in March with our full year result. The year 2022 figures are fully comparative. This morning, we published restated figures to reflect the discontinuation of our Russia segment as of the second quarter 2023. The first quarter of this year was again another volatile quarter characterized by extraordinary market fundamentals. Overall, our group performance across the headline KPIs was very strong. Starting from the comparable operating profit for continuing operations, it more than doubled to 784 million euros, and was 698 million euros, excluding Russia. Compatible EPS for continuing operations was 58 cents per share, and when excluding Russia, it was 54 cents per share, almost double compared to Q122 restated figures. Gas flow also improved significantly and amounted to 583 million euros, and this is including Russia. Finally, the balance sheet and most importantly, our leverage. Defined as financial net debt to comparable EBITDA, it was at 0.3 times for the group's continuing operations and at 0.4 times excluding the Russian operations. The main reason for the improvement is the strong result and good cash flow. The low leverage provides a good starting point to continue to develop Fortum. Going forward, we will calibrate the balance between dividend, growth capex and balance sheet strength, which has the highest priority for us. To sum it up, I'm satisfied with the strong group performance in a volatile commodity market. So with this, I conclude my part in this first section and hand over to you, Tiina.

Thank you, Markus. Good morning, everyone, also on my behalf. It feels good to be back at Fordham again, and I'm happy to have been given the opportunity to take on the role as CFO. I'm looking forward to meet all of you in a due course. I will now go through our financials in more detail and we'll start with the development during the first quarter. At the end of my presentation, I will also provide some more details on the financial effects of the RASM deconsolidation, including impairments in the second quarter. But with this, let's move to our key financials for our continuing operations. As you have noted, we have today published restated quarterly figures for 2022 and the first quarter on 2023. Starting from the second quarter, RASA will be deconsolidated, classified as discontinued operation and reported as a one-liner. What you can see here is the key financial overview summarizing key comparable indicators of the Consolidated Votums Group continuing operation. This reporting is in line with the full year reporting as we still in the first quarter consolidated RASA and therefore provide the figures here excluding RASA. So these are not to be mixed with today's restatement of our RASAN segment. Going forward, you should focus on the restated figures published today. So let me now comment on some of the comparable KPIs, excluding the impact from the RASAN operation. Compatible operating profit, excluding Rasa, more than doubled from 326 million euros and was 698 million euros for the first quarter. This is almost entirely driven by the generation segment and the high hedge and market prices. Items affecting comparability totaled 71 million euros, of which 62 million euros was changes in fair values of non-hedge accounted derivatives. This also shows that the effect of the market volatility has declined. Comparable net profit excluding RASA improved from 228 million euros to 483 million euros. EPS, excluding RASA for the first quarter, consequently increased and was 0.54 euros per share. The increase is not as pronounced as the increase in the comparable operating profit as we had higher financing costs. EPS for the last 12 months has increased to 1.49 euros. Then, cash flow. In the first quarter 2023, net cash from operating activities, including RASA, increased by €218 million to €583 million, mainly due to the improved comparable EBITDA. The increase was dampened by the small negative change in working capital and higher paid income taxes compared to the same period in 2022. It is also good to note that there is no impact of the dividend in Q1 at the first installment of 0.46 euros was paid only in April, i.e. impacting the second quarter. The second instalment of €0.45 will be paid in October in the fourth quarter. The dividend of €0.91 was based on the 2022 EPS of €1.21 for continuing operation excluding Rasa. And as the final remark of our key financial, we note that our leverage is very low with the financing net debt to comparable EBITDA ratio of 0.4 times, excluding RASA. Now over to the segment overview. This clearly shows that the strong result improvement is entirely subject to our generation segment, which reported a comparable operating profit of 723 million euros. The significantly higher achieved power price supported by high hedge price in Q1 strengthened the result. The Q1 2023 system product market prices have been about 100 euros per megawatt hour since the beginning of the second quarter last year and peaked approximately 550 euros per megawatt hour at the end of August 2022. The slightly lower volumes were caused by lower inflows that left the hydro reservoir levels slightly below average during quarter. Also currently, hydro volumes are somewhat below the average. The operational performance and production volumes for nuclear generation were solid and at a good level. The achieved power price in the generation segment increased by 41.1 euros per megawatt hour, or 93%, to 85.2 euros per megawatt hour, driven mainly by higher hedge prices. Our hedge price in Q1 2023 was more than our area price's blended spot price. Physical optimization enabled by the power price volatility continued to be good and contributed to good results. This is strong performance. Consumer solution result fell by 29 million euros, close to a zero result, mainly due to the losses resulting from customer outflow from certain hedge contract portfolios in a very volatile and high price market conditions. This means that we had some contracts from which customers were able to switch out of and resulted in related overhead position that created losses. Consumer solution comparable operating profit was also negatively impacted by the Polish price cut implemented for end users in 2023 as regulated by the Polish government. And finally, one word about the other operating segment. Comparably operating profit decreased by 15 million euros and totaled minus 31 million euros, mainly due to the structural changes in the circular solution business in the comparison period and unexpected outage at the Danish facility in Nyborg. And now we move to the balance sheet. I will first go through our balance sheet at the end of Q1 2023, which also includes the RASAN assets. And then starting from the top, our group equity strengthened due to the positive hedging effects and was 9.8 billion euros. Our gross debt came down as we repaid some debt. At the end of Q1, net margin receivable amounted to 1.1 billion euros, which already is much closer to the historical levels compared to the levels we saw last year. We also continue to have sufficient liquid funds, 3.7 billion euros. So all in all, we can summarize that we have a relatively clear balance sheet. I will come back to the balance sheet on my last slide to present the effects of the Russian impairments and deconsolidation as published today. But first, a few comments on our net debt and debt portfolio. The credit rating still continues to be a key objective for us. We are satisfied that both rating agencies changed our outlook from to stable with BBB rating. Let's go to the reconciliation of our financial net debt during the quarter. which has further improved and strengthened and shows that our leverage situation is very good. When looking at our financial net debt in the opening balance sheet at the beginning of the year, we had a financial net debt of 1.1 billion euros. Operating cash flow was very strong of 583 million euros and supported our efforts to further bring down our gross debt. The positive effect on the strong cash flow was slightly offset by investment of 144 million euros and slightly higher receivables of 71 million euros from the Nuclear Waste Fund in Sweden. Finally, the FX effect of 81 million euros is mainly related both Ruble and Swedish krona. So at the end of the March, our financial net debt has further declined and was at 0.8 billion euros, including Rasa and at 0.9 million euros, excluding Rasa. Looking at our debt portfolio and the maturity profile, I want to highlight a few things. First, we repaid a 1 billion euro bond in February and also repaid and canceled the Solidium Bridge Financing Loan of 2.35 billion euros in mid-March. Second, we continue to have quite some financial flexibility on our debt maturities as we have option to extend 1 billion euros of our loans with one year into 2024. Therefore, although at the first glance, our contractual maturity profile looks very much front loaded, the financial position is rather good. Our liquidity position continues to be strong, and we have sufficient liquidity reserve totaling 3.4 billion euros, excluding Rasa. Finally, a few words of our financing costs. As the interest rates have gone up, the interest rate for our debt portfolio is consequently also up somewhat. Going forward, the cost of our 5.9 billion euro loan portfolio is 3.9%. It is good to remember that we also are getting some interest income for our liquid funds. So with this, over to the outlook section. The outlook section comprises in essence four elements. Guidance of hedging, CAPEX for 2023, updated tax rates and RASA impact. Over the years, Fortum's successful hedging of the outright generation has created predictability and visibility. The hedge prices for generation segment for this year came down from 58 euros per megawatt hour to 50 euros per megawatt hour. And the hedge ratio was 70 percent at the end of March. The reason for the decreasing hedge price is that we had a very high hedge price in Q1 2023. The hedge price for 2024 increased by 1 euro per megawatt hour to 43 euros, and the respective hedge ratio remained at 45% at the end of March. Our CAPEX guidance for 2023 for continuing operation is unchanged. We expect to spend a total 700 million euros, and this includes maintenance capex, but excludes potential acquisitions. Maintenance capex will be approximately 300 million euros, which continues to be below our depreciation level. Due to the upcoming deconsolidation effects of the Russian impairments, we are slightly lowering our tax guidance for this year. Taking into consideration also the temporary windfall tax, the group's comparable effective income tax rate excluding items affecting comparability is estimated to be in the range of 20 to 23% for this year. Excluding the windfall tax, the comparable income tax, excluding items affecting comparability is estimated to be in the range of 19 to 21%. For 2024, the comparable effective income tax rate excluding items affecting comparability is estimated to be in the range of 19 to 21%. And just as a reminder, the Finnish windfall tax applies to the fiscal year 2023. The actual outcome of it naturally depends on the power price and result development. And then finally, on the deconsolidation of Russia, The RASAN operation will be reported as discontinued operation in the second quarter 2023. In the second quarter, we will also record impairments of 1.7 billion euros and translation differences of 1.9 billion euros. So let's take a more detailed look at the effects of these on the next slide. Here we try to illustrate the effects of the RASAN exit by bridging between the balance sheet as per end of March and the balance sheet after the deconsolidation and impairments. In addition to overall asset value, the other relevant components affected are liquid funds, equity and interest bearing debt. Liquid funds and interest-bearing debt will increase as they are deducted from group financials. After the deconsolidation, the group financial net debt will increase from 0.8 at the end of March to 0.9 billion euros based on the illustrative balance sheet where RASA is deconsolidated. The intergroup loan to Russia does not have any impact on financial net debt. Financial net debt to comparable EBITDA would be at 0.4 times. The impairment of asset of 1.7 billion euros will have a negative effect on group equity. However, the FX translation difference, a negative effect, approximately 1.9 billion euros, will only move within equity from translation effect to retained earnings through the income statement, but does not have total equity at all. This means that the group's total equity decreases from 9.8 billion euros to approximately 8 billion euros in the illustrative balance sheet. At the end of last year, the parent company equity was at 12.2 billion euros. These recordings do not have any effect on cash flow. So to conclude. After these bookings, group equity and parent company equity continued to be at healthy levels, and Fortum's financial position remained solid. Distributable funds are sufficient for future dividend payments. At the end of last year, distributable funds amounted to 6.3 billion euros. Considering the dividends of 0.91 euros paid for 2022, it was already based on the EPS excluding Rasa. So with this, I conclude my presentation and now over to you, Ingella.