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Grupo Fin Banorte Ord
1/29/2025
Good morning, everyone. This is Tomás Lozano, Head of Investor Relations, Corporate Development, Financial Planning, and ESG. Welcome to Grupo Financieros Van Orter Four Quarter Earnings Poll. Our CEO, Marco Ramirez, will begin today's call by presenting the main results of the quarter and the year. He will comment on our capital allocation as well as our macro expectations for the year. Then Rafael Arana, our COO, will go over the financial highlights of the group, providing details on the margin evolution and rate sensitivity, asset quality, as well as expenses for the quarter. He will conclude presenting our 2025 guidance. Please note that today's presentation may include forward-looking statements that are subject to risk and uncertainties, which may cause actual results to differ materially. On page two of our conference call deck, you will find our full disclaimer regarding forward-looking statements. Thank you. Marcos, please go ahead.
Thank you, Tomás. Good morning, everyone. I wish you all the best in this new year. And thank you, as always, for joining us today. We are pleased to share with you the results achieved both in the quarter and throughout 2024, delivering on our commitments to the market a year ago, despite the challenging second half of the year with clear signs of economic slowdown and increasing uncertainties regarding the transition period of the new government of Mexico and the presidential elections in the U.S. On the macro front, GDP growth in 2024 is expected to reach 1.6%. Domestic demand remains resilient throughout the year, driven by a strong labor market, with increasing wages and improving working conditions, a solid stream of remittances reaching historical maximums, and a dynamic investment activity. Altogether, this led to a stronger internal demand, which partially offset a weaker external sector. For 2025, we expect GDP growth to slightly decline to 1%, giving the effects of the fiscal consolidation, lower inertia momentum, and different headwinds from the international environment. Nonetheless, for this year, we anticipate a still resilient private consumption dynamic supported by healthy consumer fundamentals and the tailwind from the initial stages of the new administration, so-called Mexico Plan, which intends to boost the country's economic growth with a stronger technological edge. Annual headline inflation stood at 4.2% in 2024, improving versus the 4.7% PBR in 2023. For this year, we expect additional declines to materialize, anticipating a year-end pre-war of 4%. In this sense, and in line with our expectation, the Mexican Central Bank reduced its reference rate to 10% at the end of 2024. And for this year, we foresee additional decreases of 150 basis points to 8.5% by the end of 2025, which should be positive for credit demand. On the political front, the president recently announced the achievements of the first 100 days of current administration, expressing, among other topics, the continuity of series of constitutional reforms, including the judicial one and the approval of the economic package for 2025, highlighting fiscal consolation efforts, a strategy to maintain the sustainability of public accounts and higher inflows for social programs. The President also announced her long-term National Development Plan, which focuses on infrastructure projects that will drive connectivity and economic development across all regions of the country. These plans involve the capitalization of natural resources, creation of specialized workforces in strategic sectors, relocation of supply chains, and enhancement of public-private associations guaranteeing agility and transparency for investments. Finally, we will closely monitor any changes in public policies and additional announcements made by President Trump that could potentially impact the Mexican economy. We maintain our constructive view regarding the upcoming trade negotiations, supporting further integration between Mexico and the United States in the long term, especially for the auto, tech, and electronic industries. However, we anticipate a volatile short-term environment given the challenges around tariffs, immigration, and security. The Mexican currency ended 2024 at 20.82 pesos per dollar, its weakest level since 2008. For 2025, we forecast a level close to 21.40 as we anticipate macro uncertainties to wait on the exchange rate. Now, shifting gears to the group's overall performance on slide number three. The quarter displayed solid operating trends with expanding lending dynamics and P-activity, both driven by some private consumption and higher seasonal transaction volumes. Margin performance was supported by a daily imbalance of selective lending, top-level asset quality, and optimized funding costs. N&I's sensitivity in local currency reached 90 million pesos from every 100 basis point change in the reference rate. Capital generation remains strong, ending the year with a 21.8% capital adequacy ratio and a CEP1 of 13.2%, gradually converting to our management target for this indicator. We will discuss our capital allocation strategy in more detail later. Starting off with profitability, that's the slide number four, reported net income for the quarter amounted to 13.7 billion pesos, a minus 4% decline quarter over quarter, mainly driven by our annual expense management strategy. We leveraged the sound income generation of the last quarter to advance different personnel, administrative, and operating expenses, impacting net income figures. Nevertheless, with accumulated figures, net income for 2024 reached 56.2 billion pesos within the guidance provided for the year, an increase in 7% versus 2023, driven by a solid performance across all our business lines. ROE rose 20 basis points compared to the fourth quarter of 2023, reaching 21.6%, accounting for the share buyback operation and the distribution of extraordinary dividends during the quarter. ROE slightly declined year-on-year and versus the last quarter, giving an acceleration in long growth towards the end of the quarter. Analyzing the results by subsidiary, the bank reported net income of 10.7 billion pesos in the quarter and 44.1 billion pesos in 2024, with some core banking operations driven by a higher-quality lending activity, controlled cost of funds, and strong fee revenue, which enabled the opportunity to advance expenses for this year. Altogether, these results yielded an ROE for the bank of 21.9% for 2024, 146 basis points higher versus 2023. The insurance business grew 14% sequentially and 26% versus 2023 on the back of higher business generation, despite an increase in the fee scheme between the insurance company and the bank during the fourth quarter. The annuity's business was 14% higher in the quarter and versus 2023, giving a normalized operation of the industry, following the reactivation of the resolutions issued by the Social Security Institutes, along with lower reserves Constitution during their quarter. The pension fund business had a sequential decline driven by lower yields and financial products. With accumulated figures, it grew 8%, derived from higher business volume. It is worth mentioning that starting this January, we had an additional reduction in fees from 0.57% to 0.55%. We anticipate this reduction to have an impact on the financials of this year, but will be gradually mitigated by the higher asset under management. Finally, the brokerage sector reported double-digit growth with accumulated figures boosted by larger transaction fees. On slide number six, loan expansion continues to pose double-digit growth across most of the portfolios. The corporate and commercial book grew an outstanding 24% and 18% year-on-year, respectively, giving the continuous demand for companies requiring higher working capital to expand their productive capacities and the benefit from the FX variation in the dollar loan book that today accounts for 16% of the total portfolio. For this year, we anticipate a slight deceleration in these books as the new investment pipeline is on hold until uncertainties around the trade negotiations dissipate. Nevertheless, we still perceive good dynamics in real estate, financial services, and industrial parks, supported by the development plan set forth by the new administration for the following years. Moreover, our government book rose 70% in the year, giving the resuming activity following the federal, state, and the municipal elections. There is opportunity for this book to expand further once the potential public-private associations for infrastructure projects start to materialize. Turning to slide number seven, overall consumer lending maintained double-digit growth of 11% in the year, mainly supported by solid employment levels and improving labor conditions, as well as the scaling of our hyper-personalization business model. The combination of these factors has allowed us to reap the benefits of stronger consumer dynamics, enabling a more assertive cross-sell mechanism based on our clients' needs and desires. The mortgage portfolio remains as one of the main growth drivers despite the mild decelerations and the end of the year. This portfolio grew 19.6 billion pesos in 2024. Even with a more restrictive risk approach, prioritizing high-quality, low leverage clients. We anticipate this product to benefit from lower trades throughout the year. Auto loans reported a solid 25% growth in the year, supported by our commercial alliances with different car dealerships and greater overall business activity in the sector. We continue working on building a sound network that guarantees the availability of our offering with the best-selling brands. Regarding credit cards, this business rose 18% year-on-year driven mainly by the production of innovative products that addresses specific needs of our younger and lower income clientele. It is worth mentioning that credit card use has gained relevance as our current payment method, which has had a positive impact in new client acquisition and balances. Finally, payroll loans also show a good credit dynamics, growing 10% annually, reflecting a revamped offering with different products that address our customers' short-term liquidity needs. Slide number eight. We preserve top-level asset quality with an NPL ratio of 0.9% at year-end. Despite our continued growth across our portfolios, especially in the consumer segment, cost of risk stood at 1.8% in the quarter and the year, given the dynamic recalibration of internal models. It is worth mentioning that so far, there are no signs of sectorial or geographical deterioration in our books. Fees, on slide number 9, show expanding trends. Net fees grew 18% year-on-year in the quarter, with core banking fees increasing 15% in the same period. As I mentioned before, the evolution was mainly driven by the increasing transaction volume of consumer products and POS. Changing gears to ESG, slide number 10. We continue to make progress on the different projects announced at the beginning of the year. The resources from our sustainable fund issuance are well advanced, with over 70% of the funds already allocated to various green and social projects with our clients. We continue the internal capacity building efforts required to grow our sustainable finance penetration. And towards the end of 2024, we announced an ambition long-term commitment to grow and preserve 1 million trees by the year 2030. working together with One Trillion Fees Initiative and local associations in Mexico. At the end of next month, we will publish our 2024 Integrated Annual Report, which will provide in-depth information regarding our sustainability practices. Finally, before moving into the financial highlights of the quarter by Rafa, I would like to cover four additional topics. The first one, I will take a moment to expand a little further into the capabilities that Banorte has today. We were recently recognized as Bank of the Year in Mexico by the banker. This award was not only a great way to say farewell to a successful 2024, but a way to highlight the remarkable transformation of the bank in these last 125 years. These awards acknowledge our efforts in strengthening our digital banking offering via innovation, deep customer understanding to continue investments in technology, resulting in a significant improvement in customer experience and giving us a competitive edge in the market. Second topic, we have received many questions regarding the direction of our digital strategy. In this regard, we are certain that there is a market of young and tech-savvy individuals looking for convenient, simple, and reliable banking solutions, as well as a digital driver to increase financial inclusion. As a financial group, we have the technological and human capabilities to address this market. And I want to assure you that we are finalizing our value proposition by consolidating efforts and leveraging the scale and strength of the group. I will be communicating it to you in our next quarterly call in April. Third topic. Regarding the possible implications for banks of the recent executive order of the Trump administration to designate Trump cartels as foreign terrorist organizations, in this regard, I would like to stress that Banorte has a robust AML policy that has been strengthened by continuous investment in governance structures human, technological, and operational resources that enable us to not only comply with the local regulations but exceed our surveillance capabilities of our clients' operations. Our compliance program is supervised by the National Banking and Securities Commission to supervisory basis or information required and in some respect related to different payment systems, channels like SPAY and SPID by the Mexican Central Bank and by our internal audit division and an annual basis. Moreover, Uniteler has robust anti-money laundering protocols that are supervised by the corresponding American authorities. Nevertheless, we welcome all the processes that strengthen the security of banking compliance systems, with which we have both hand in hand. Lastly, topic number four, regarding our capital allocation strategy. As you know, our internal capital generation remains strong, enabling high-value returns to our shareholders. In 2024, we delivered an 89% payout ratio, comprised by an ordinary dividend that accounted for 50%, an extraordinary dividend that added an additional 19%, and the cancellation of 70.3 million reported shares during the quarter, representing an additional 19%. I would like to stress that we continue evaluating all the different alternatives to return value to you while being mindful of the operating environment and organic load needs. As such, we anticipate our CET1 target ranging between 13% and 13.5% in the year. Now, I will pass the word to Rafa to cover the main financial results, as well as to discuss our expectations for the year. Rafa, please go ahead.
Thank you, Marcos, and thank you all for attending the conference. As Marcos has mentioned, and I will just stress, the balance sheet continues to be quite a strong position of Banorte. As you know, we have been basically put on our balance sheet very close to neutral. There was a small pickup on the quarter based upon the movements that we need to do in the treasury, but it's still almost neutral for the sensitivity and more than ready for the lowering trend that we see on the interest rates. Return on equity continues to be a very important piece of information for the market and for us a key metrics that we follow the profitability of the bank and the evolution of the bank. The group is evolving in the fourth quarter to 21.6, about 22% for the year. And the bank is reaching on the fourth quarter 27.8% return on equity, about 28% for the year. Pretty strong number. Also take into account the strong capital base that the bank continues to hold. The transformation, we continue to accelerate more and more and enhance the digital offering that we have. Artificial intelligence is becoming part of a natural evolution for most of our processes. As you know, we have an artificial intelligent avatar that can do transactions and help our clients to evolve and do transactions that they in some cases are stuck in the process, they can really see this avatar as a very important piece of how they can continue to be on a digital instead of going into the branches to sort it out any of the evolutions. The net interest margin for the quarter continues to evolve at the group level, five basis points to reach the 6.5%. And Banolto Bank continues to evolve in the quarter to 6.8, 19 basis points on a global basis. So this is the result of this structural change. balancing the position of our balance sheet and also giving us the right trend on the mix, on the group, and the results is easy to see on the evolution of the margin. Some of our investors were concerned about the reduction on the fees, on the interest rates, and how that's going to affect the evolution of the margin for us. So we have been working in position to balance sheet for the last two years. I think we're in a good position to keep straining the net interest margin for the time. Cost income ratio, 36.9. It's a number that we know is high for Banorte. There's a lot of efforts coming into place that are already being rolled out on the shared services initiative, you will see also, and there were some concerns from some analysts and investors that there was a strong pickup on the expense ratio at the end of the year. That strong pickup, as Mark has mentioned, has to do with severance payments, the result of the productivity that we do every year. But in addition to that, you have to take into account that all that is the shared services evolution also is coming with an important reduction in the HRPs, and that also is part of the severance payment. And we also anticipate, based upon the currency movement, some software and IT expenses that will be beneficial for us in 2020. They would say, yeah, Banorte usually always advance expenses for the year. Yes, but this was an extraordinary, a much more aggressive number coming into that. When we look at the capital ratio, the capital ratio is 21.8. As you know, we We went into the market for an AP1 that proved to be very, I would say, very opportunistic, like Van Otis always goes into the market when the window is open. It was an open window. We used that window, and we positioned ourselves in a very good position for the feedback or any evolution that we see on the capital base. And for the first time in many, I would say in many months, you see the core tier one at 13.2%. that is very close to our commitment to the market from 13 to 13.5. But you will see in the first quarter is that 13.2 going up again above the 13.5 on this part. So these are the basic key metrics. Now if we move to the NII, NII proved to be also a very good story. And basically, if you go to the NII on loan and to deposits, 13% growth on a year-to-year basis compared to the same quarter and on a year-to-year basis on a 7%. This is the result, basically, of lowering funding costs plus a very important increase in the asset side that you saw through the year that we reached the 14% long growth. So we start to see a very good combination of good growth on the asset side plus a reduction on the funding side that is giving us pretty good numbers on the NNI. Not interesting overall for the year. It was up 28%. Net fees, as was mentioned before, 18% for the year. Premium, as you will see, there were some comments about the insurance business. The insurance business had a very good quarter basically on the medical part due to a very large policy that was issued on that part. So that was the result of increasing the premium part. The other thing that is relevant on the NII and is coming now, is becoming more and more, I would say, useful for the, For the market, difficult to understand the evolution of the inflation related to the annuitous business, but I think by now we know that this is basically related. You reduce the margin, but at the same time, you reduce the technical reserve, so net income basically stays the same. The only case that that's not exactly what happens is if you grow the business in an important way. So I would say relevant numbers on the NNI basis. And I will also try to to express there were some concerns about what was the effect of the buyback and what was the effect of the extraordinary dividend for the NII. I would say that $565 million was the total effect of the NNI plus the buyback and the extraordinary dividend that we gave to the market. The extraordinary dividend was $36.7 million, and the buyback program was $528 million. That was extracted from the margin from the bank to really serve our commitments to our shareholders. On the next slide, you see that A very sound evolution is coming on the banking ratios. I would like to call attention to the net fees of another bank that is growing 22% year-on-year. That's a result, basically, of a lot of activity that is happening in every single channel of the bank, the mobile channel, The branches, ATMs, everything is really increasing the activity in a very important way. In this graph, you also see the evolution of the net interest margin for the bank that reaches the 6.8 at the end of the year. The result of that reduction on the funding cost plus a very important inflow of demand deposits and non-interest-bearing deposits. So that's basically what's coming on the core banking ratios, fees, margin. And we will move into more indexes in a minute. If we go next to the net interest income sensitivity evolution, there was some comments that it jumped from the third quarter to 36 million to 90 million. as a result to taking positions that that will allow us also you will see that working again in the in the first quarter on that part but it's basically a neutral a neutral balance sheet i think that's a a very positive uh position that we are to face the imminent uh reduction rates that our economies thinks that will be a little more aggressive than the market thinks uh If you move to how the other key metrics of the bank are evolving, you see the next one. If you go to the ROA, you see it was a slight reduction on the ROA. That's a result basically that it was a very strong pickup on the loan origination at the end of the year. So you will see the... the returns of those originations coming and flowing into the next month of the year. Net income of Banorte, you see a reduction, and that has called the attention of some of our analysts, and I think it's right that they have some concern here, but you have to see that the net income of the third quarter was basically affected by strong advance on the cost side that you will see on that one. But basically, the basic generation of the bank, of the net income basis, that is the The asset side, the funding side, and the fee side, and the risk side, all are perfectly aligned to continue to deliver a continuous net income growth. There were a lot of adjustments on the fourth quarter to prepare on the expense side. Basically, the fund for the coming year will go in a minute more into the expense side. The return on equity for Banorte Bank, which is on the third quarter, 31% in the fourth quarter, 27.8% an average for the year above the 28%. uh if we go to the next that's the managerial name to take into account the effect of the annuities um i think that that by now since we have so many ups and down on inflation this has become more familiar to our investor base i would like to move to the next one slide that is really something that you know we have been chasing for for for some time the reduction on the funding cost based upon the high pace of growth on the loan book. There was pressure on the funding side on 23. We started to normalize that on 24. And finally, we are now reaching the trends that we'd like to see. We reached the 46.6 on the funding side. That is really pushing up along with the sensitivity of the balance sheet, the net interest margin, along with a very positive generation on the asset side. So what was the story? And I would say that there was some basically loan-to-deposit ratio, we are not reaching still the 100%. We are still at 104, and that gives you some imbalance on the asset-to-laborability side that is easily compensated by a position that we can do on the market as needed. And another important thing is the cost of the market funds also are coming down. in an important way. You see that non-interest-bearing deposits, demand deposits grew on a year-to-year basis 8%. That's quite a number because this is really non-interest-bearing deposits basically delivered by the payroll base that we have that is growing in an important way. And the activity of the new accounts that are coming into the bank also We are becoming more and more active on the remittances side, and the remittances have been proving to be a very important source of funds also on the cheap end of the funding cost. The interest-bearing demand deposits, you saw the increase on the quarter of close to 6%, and that's good news because we are substituting non-interest-bearing deposits with interest-bearing deposits on demand deposits. That shows the quality and the potential of the distribution capacity that Banorte has in every single of the banks that deliver commercial, corporate, government, retail. Time deposits continue to be a balance, some very good growth on the time deposit base, 16% year on year, with lowering trend on the funding cost on the time deposits also. If we go now to some of the, I would say, the key elements that Granolte has in a way that we compete in the market. That is basically the quality on the asset book. You see that the cost of risk, and there was some concern that, oh, the cost of risk jumped a bit. Yes, it jumped a bit because we originate a lot in the fourth quarter in the government book that required provisions on day zero, and they will come back in the coming months. And also credit cards, the mortgage book, car loans, all the book really pick up a very strong growth on the end of the year. And that was accompanied by the initial provisions, not because there was a lack of quality of the book, because it's mandatory in the way we have to provide the provisions based upon the norm that we have to comply with. But we continue to see a very strong asset quality. Let's take a peek on that. If you go to the car book, 0.6% NPLs. You go to the mortgage book, 0.9 NPLs. If you go to the to the SME that is sometimes of concerns, 1.8. That is the same level that we have on the commercial and corporate. Corporate, 0.1. Government, 0. So overall, below 1% MPLs and very strong cost of waste, below what we got in the market at the beginning of the year. And there have been some concerns about what are Banorte doing in order to keep the group. Basically what we started five, six years ago to be very diligent, very, very active on evolving into more and more analytical tools in order to provide the necessary information to have the right onboarding policies that we have. And that has been proven that all the investment and all the quality of the people that we have on the risk side, on the collection side, and the discipline that the banks that all the people that do lending at the bank, that's in his mind, is what he's giving. The write-off rate, some people say write-off in Banorte is really a very stable line. That is also something very relevant about Banorte. We don't go up and down thin in the books. So we don't go into the market, grow it in the market at any price, and then kill the book by cleaning the book. This is a very disciplined evolution of the right of wage. If we go to the expense line, and I would like to spend some time here on the expense line, you saw a very strong pickup on the book. If you go on the fourth quarter of 23 to the fourth quarter of 24, you saw a valuation of 14.8 to 16.2. This is basically what we have been mentioned. We advanced a lot of payments. the severance payments, the evolution that we have on the shared services that unfortunately comes with a reduction on the HR numbers. And that effort will continue in a very active way through the year. But most of the severance has been already advanced in place for the quarter. So that's the result of that PICO. If you try to to split up the expense growth of Banorte, and I think this is quite important for the market to notice, is the recurring expenses of Banorte at 7.4%. If you add Bineo and Tarjeta del Futuro, it's 5% more. So that puts you on the 12.4%. So the whole idea right now, and Marco's already touch on that and mention on that, is that we have to converge, not on this year, but I'm sure in the next year, to the recurring expenses that Banorte has. So there will be an aggressive reduction on the expense line that has already started in 24 and will continue into 25. What's going to be the result of that on the net income basis? Our goal is, as you know, on a permanent basis to be at least at the 34%. We know we are above that, 36.9%. There's a strong effort for the next year, as you will see on the guidance in a minute. But be aware that we are very conscious of the expense line, and we are taking actions of that. La Norte doesn't feel comfortable on a cost income ratio of 36 points. The bank and liquidity ratios, the liquidity ratio continues to be right on line where we like the liquidity ratio to be. And the capital adequacy ratio, as I mentioned, is 21.8, well above the requirements of the TLAC. And on the courtier one, for the first time in many, many quarters, we are on the range that we promised the market of 13.2%. I have already touched on the capital return, but I think it's relevant to mention that. How was the payback to the investors this last year? 50% was the initial payout that we gave, and then comes the buybacks. And then comes the extraordinary dividends. There has been some questions about how active is going to be the buyback program. The buyback program is active. And it's active until we go to the assembly on May to renew the buyback amount that we have. Currently, we have close to 22 billion pesos to be used as needed on the buyback. Some people have said, why haven't you been more aggressive based upon the share price? Because the world is not quiet and we like to be, as always, conservative and conservative. and ready to do whatever we need to do in order to really reflect the real price of the share in the market. Now, I would like to go first to the 2024 results on the guidance. Long growth, we promised the market 10 to 12. We reached 14%. Strong growth at the end of the year. Net interest margin, we promised at the group level 6.1 to 6.4. We reached 6.3. Net interest margin of the bank, we promised 6.3, 6.5. We reached 6.5. Recurrent expense growth, 7.4. Total expense growth, we promised the market from 13 to 14. We reached 12.5. 12.4 is below what we promised the market, but we are not comfortable with that number, and all actions have been taken in order to continue the reduction of that. Efficiency, we promised the market from 36 to 37. We reached 37. Cost of risk, 1.7 to 1.9. We end at 1.8, so we comply. Tax rate, And let me touch on the tax rate, because there was some concern that we produced a very low number compared to the usual numbers. When you look at the tax rate, you have to look at when, if you go to the first quarter, the tax rate was 30%. Why was it 30%? Because there were some provisions that we needed to do. There was some evolution coming on the inflation rate. So we basically have to look at the tax rate on an annual basis, because if you go to a quarter to quarter, many adjustments come based upon inflation, based upon many issues that come from that part. So our commitment for the tax rate was 26, from 27 to 28. 25 to 27, we end at 26. That is right on line with what we promised the market. If you see the evolution of the tax rate on a quarter to quarter basis, obviously a big drop on the fourth quarter, but a big jump on the first quarter. So when you see everything is balancing that out, we are not playing the game of adjusting the net income based on the tax rate. It's based upon the evolution of what we see on inflation, on all the issues that are needed to comply with the tax authorities. Net income, 56 to 56.8. We ended up at 56.2. If you add what we take from the buyback and from the external dividend, you see that that number was very close to the high end of the run. The return on equity, 21.5 to 22.5 for the group. We ended at 22.4. Return on equity for the bank, we promised 27.5 to 29. We ended at 29.1. And ROA for 2024 was 2.3 to 2.4. We ended at 2.3%. So we comply with every single line of the guidance that we commit the market to be. Now I will go to the guidance for the year. And just to put everything in context, if 24 was a challenging year, 25 is another challenging year, based upon many, many issues that are going in Mexico, in the US, and in the world. So based upon the information that we have right now, this is the guidance that we are committing as we speak. Loan growth, we see potential loan growth from 8% to 11%. We will attend to the double-digit growth. Net interest margin holding for the group from 6.1% to 6.4%. For the bank, 6.4% to 6.6%. Recurrent expense growth, we are lowering now to the range of 6% to 7%. Total expense growth to 9% to 10.5%. with a big effort to be on single digit numbers for the year. Efficiency from 36 to 37.5. Cost of risk 1.8 from 2%. Tax rate 26 to 28. Net income 59.6 to 62.1%. Sorry, sorry, billion, not percent, sorry. Return on equity for the group, 21.5 to 23, and return on equity for the bank from 28 to 30%, ROA from 2.2 to 2.4, with a GDP of 0.7 to 1.3, an inflation rate from 4 to 5, and Banxico, 8.5% by year-end on interest rates. If we split the loan growth, let me go on a line-by-line basis because that's an information that you always look for. Commercial will be growing 11%, consumer 11%, the mortgage group 10%, credit card 13%, car loan 16%. payroll 11%, corporate 9%, and government 7%. If you see the adjustment is basically on the corporate to see basically the evolution of how all the issues concerning trade and things coming into place in the next few days, we will have a lot more information. With this, I end. And I will also, another question that usually comes to to us that if house investment in technology, if the investment in technology continues to hold at 13.1 of total revenue, that has been the norm, and we will continue to have that investment in technology. With that, I end my participation. Thank you, Rafa.
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