7/11/2025

speaker
Laura
Conference Coordinator

Hello there, pardon the interruption. We are now at the top of the hour. Please do let me know whenever you're ready to start. And we currently have 13 participants. You're ready? Thank you so much, Mitra. One moment, please, and have a good call. Thank you. Hello and welcome to the NVDA's Q2 2025 results presentation. My name is Laura and I will be your coordinator for today's event. Please note this call is being recorded and for the duration of the call, your lines will be on listen and remote. However, you will have the opportunity to ask questions at the end of the call. This can be done by pressing star 1 on your telephone keypad to register your questions. If you require assistance at any point, please press R0 and you will be connected to an operator. I will now hand you over to your host, Mitra Negar, Head of Investor Relations, to begin today's conference. Thank you.

speaker
Mitra Negar
Head of Investor Relations

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Jensidia's second quarter presentation. My name is Mitra Negar, and I am Head of Investor Relations. As always, we will start with our CEO, Geir Holmgren, who will give you the highlights of the quarter before our CFO, Jostein Amdahl, will run through the numbers in further detail. And we have plenty of time for a Q&A after that. Geir, please.

speaker
Geir Holmgren
Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Mitra, and good morning, everyone. Let us turn to page two for comments on our second quarter results. I am very pleased to see that our efforts to improve the results are continuing to come through. The results this quarter show a significant improvement. However, it is important to emphasize that part of this is due to natural variability inherent in insurance business. The profit before tax was 2 billion and 955 million kroner. General insurance service result was 2 billion and 200 million, significantly up year on year. Insurance revenue increased by 11.7%. The combined ratio declined to 79%. reflecting improvements in both the loss and cost ratios. It is very encouraging to see that the underlying profitability improved by 7.5 percentage points when adjusting for adverse development in claims and a change in risk adjustment in the second quarter last year. Our investment generated returns of 1 billion and 102 million, contributing to delivering a solid return on equity of 31.3%, and our solvency ratio was 182% at the end of the quarter. Jostein will revert with more detailed comments on the results for the quarter. A few words about property insurance on page 3. I am very pleased to see higher profitability for private property this quarter as well, thanks to our persistent focus on implementing necessary pricing measures. But it must also be noted that there were no significant weather events during the quarter. The second quarter is usually quarter with the fewest weather events. In addition, we had fewer fires impacting both claims frequency and severity. Although claims for property insurance are highly volatile, we see a promising development in underlying profitability for this product line. Claims inflation has developed as expected. Average premiums increased by more than 40% during the past year. These are necessary price increases, but having this in mind, it is particularly encouraging to see that our customers remain loyal to us and that we continue to attract more customers. All of these are difficult times to predict future claims costs. Given ongoing geopolitical instability, rising defence and infrastructure spending, and potential trade barriers, we see a reduced inflation picture and lower of a near-term forecast for claims inflation, somewhat to 3-5%. Based on this, and the improved profitability for products so far, we have also dampened current price increases to just above 40% from this month. Over to page 4, and a few words on motor insurance in Norway, which, thanks to the significant pricing measures over many quarters, combined with a stabilization of claims costs, is an important driver for the improved profitability for private Norway, together with improvements just discussed for private property. The upward pressure on frequency, is gradually abating. Adjusting for the timing of Easter this year and the mild winter, the increase in underline crime frequency continued its downward trend, resulting in an estimated underline increase of only 1 percent this quarter. Our pricing will reflect a continued moderate increase in claims frequency. Claims inflation increased by 4.6% this quarter within our expected range. Average premium rose by more than 90% during the past 12 months. We are aware of the risk from tariffs and potential supply chain disruption on the cost for spare parts, but our short-term outlook is somewhat reduced. Claims to inflation picture down to 3-6%. Given the risk mentioned, the range is as before quite wide. Based on the downward trend in growth in underlying frequency and our more moderate forecast for claims to inflation and the improved profitability for the product, so far we have dampened our price increases to around 16% from this month. We are closely monitoring the situation for all our products and will respond swiftly should any of our assumptions change. So moving on to page five. We delivered high results across all segments this quarter. The strong growth momentum in Norway continued, supported by effective pricing measures, high customer retention and an increase in the number of private customers. As expected, our strategic focus on risk selection and prioritising profitability moderated the growth rate for our commercial portfolio. Profitability improved significantly, supported by the favorable development in claims, but also reflecting pricing measures, efficient operations, and continued delivery from our claims cost-saving program. Our Danish operation also demonstrated improved performance this quarter. I am particularly pleased with the results for the private portfolio, reflecting our strong efforts to put through targeted pricing measures and enhance operational efficiency. Favorable weather conditions also impacted results, although there is still an upside potential for retention in Denmark. It is encouraging to see the improvements for the private portfolio despite the price increases. The Danish commercial portfolio also delivered better results, although retention was somewhat down. We are placing strong emphasis on pricing and tightening our terms and conditions. At the same time, we are implementing cost efficiency initiatives, including process improvements and headcount optimization. The implementation of our new core IT system for our commercial portfolio is progressing steadily, and we look forward to realizing its full potential over time. We remain committed to driving continuous improvements across all areas of our Danish business. At the same time, we recognize that quarterly volatility may occur. Our Swedish operation continues to build on its positive momentum, showing sustained progress based on good growth and increased profitability. Turning to page 6. The Customer Dividend paid by Jens-Idias Stiftelsen is one of the most important ways we demonstrate our commitment to customers. It strengthens customer loyalty, continues to build trust and reinforces the value of being a customer in Jens-Idias. Ultimately, the Customer Dividend sets us apart in the insurance market and helps us stay true to our roots as a customer-owned operation. This year, around 900,000 customers will receive a total of 2.8 billion kroner, corresponding to 11.1% of the premiums paid in 2024. Over to page 7. We continue to actively pursue our strong sustainability ambitions. As shown on this slide, we have launched a number of innovative initiatives that are designed to create significant customer value, while reducing claims costs over time. I'm also very pleased to share that our AAA ESD rating from MSCI has been reaffirmed, reflecting our ongoing commitment to responsible and sustainable business practices. So with that, I will leave the word to Jostein to present the second quarter results in more detail.

speaker
Jostein Amdahl
Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Geir, and good morning, everybody. I will start on page 9. We delivered a profit before tax of almost 3 billion kronor in the second quarter. The insurance service result increased significantly to 2.2 billion, driven by continued strong topline growth and a lower loss ratio across all segments. A further decrease in the cost ratio also contributed to higher results. The improved results in private Norway were driven by motor and property insurance due to lower claims frequency, including a reduction in the number of fires. Accident and health insurance also showed improved profitability. The improvement from our commercial portfolio in Norway was mainly driven by property and motor insurance due to pricing measures and lower claims frequency. The results in both the commercial and private portfolios in Denmark improved this quarter. The increase in the commercial portfolio was mainly driven by motor and accident and health insurance. The improvement reflects pricing measures and tightened terms and conditions. Travel and property insurance also showed improved profitability. In the private portfolio, the improvement was primarily driven by property insurance due to lower claims frequency and effective pricing measures. Motor insurance also contributed to the improvement. In Sweden, the increase in insurance service results reflected higher profitability for commercial property, private motor and private payment protection insurance. The pension segment reported a higher pre-tax result, mainly driven by higher net finance income. The net result from our investment portfolios amounted to 699 million in the quarter, with positive returns from all asset classes. We see good progress in our mobility services. The transfer of profits from natural apparel insurance to the natural apparel pool and higher amortization and interest expenses had a negative impact on the other items line. The results from our Baltic business is recorded as discontinued operations pending regulatory approval for the sale. The result reflects improved profitability from an improved combined ratio, but with modest growth. We expect to close the transaction at the latest in the beginning of next year. Turning over to page 10. Our strong growth momentum continued in the second quarter, with insurance revenues for the group increasing by more than 11%. This was mainly driven by pricing measures across the private and commercial portfolios in all geographies, solid renewals in the commercial portfolios and higher volumes in Denmark and Sweden. The growth rate within private increased from the previous quarter and was particularly high in Norway. This was primarily driven by price increases in all main product lines, but we also saw volumes increase for motor, property, travel and excellent health insurance. I am also very happy with the increase in our Danish private portfolio, reflecting price increases and higher volumes for all main products. Growth in commercial was more evenly driven by both Norway and Denmark. In Norway, the growth was driven by price increases for all products and solid renewals. As in the previous quarter, growth for some products within Accent Insurance was muted due to a continued focus on profitability improvements. In Denmark, the growth was driven by price increases for all main products and higher volumes for property, accident and health, and liability insurance. Insurance revenue in Sweden also showed solid growth, driven by higher volumes and price increases for motor and property insurance in the commercial portfolio. Leisure boat insurance, distributed in cooperation with a recently affiliated partner, also contributed to the growth. Turning over to page 11, the group's loss ratio improved by 5.4 percentage points. Large losses are inherently random and stochastic. While unpredictable in timing and size, they are a natural part of the risk landscape. This quarter, these losses were slightly higher than our quarterly estimate, but still contributed marginally to the improvement in the loss ratio from the previous quarter. The difference from risk adjustment you can see on this slide is related to the sizable changes we made in the risk adjustment in the second quarter last year, related to the solvency rate to target. The underlying frequency loss ratio, excluding the discounting effect, improved by more than 10 percentage points, reflecting effective pricing measures across all the segments. But as Geir has mentioned, we also benefited from a favorable development in claims, but within normal volatility. Let's turn to page 12. Our commitment to operational efficiency remains strong. The group's cost ratio was 12% this quarter. The 0.5 percentage points improvement was driven by private in Norway and Denmark, thanks to both higher insurance revenue and a continued focus on cost discipline. We continue our work to optimize our cost base across the group to increase room for further investments in technology and growth. Over to slide 13 for comments on our pension operations. Our pension business delivered a pre-tax profit of 201 million this quarter, up 8% due to a higher net finance income. The insurance service result decreased compared with the second quarter last year, mainly reflecting the reduction in risk adjustment last year and lower results for occupational pension in the second quarter of this year. Net finance income was 186 million, driven by running yields, lower credit spreads and a decrease in shorter-term interest rates. The unit-linked business continues to grow with the number of occupational pension members increasing by almost 10,000 to more than 329,000 at the end of the second quarter. Assets and management rose by more than 8 billion to 95.8 billion kroner. This drove an increase in administration fees and management income, improving the net income from the unit-linked business. Moving on to the investment portfolio on page 14. Our investment portfolio generated positive returns for all asset classes, driven by running yields, lower credit spreads, and positive equity and real estate markets. The matched portfolio, net of unwinding and the impact of changes in financial assumptions, returned around 70 basis points, mainly reflecting lower credit spreads and the fact that investments did not fully match the accounting-based technical provisions. The free portfolio returned 190 basis points, reflecting positive returns from all asset classes. We added three commercial properties to our real estate portfolio during the quarter. The return on this asset class was 7.8%, including a positive non-recurring effect related to the transactions. The risk in our free portfolio increased slightly with the real estate investments I just mentioned. A few words on the latest development of operational targets on slide 15. The customer satisfaction score is measured annually in the fourth quarter. We continue to identify measures and take steps to maintain a strong customer offering and high customer satisfaction. As Geir mentioned, retention in Norway remained high and stable. retention outside Norway remained broadly stable, supported by improvement in Sweden and the private portfolio in Denmark, whereas the commercial portfolio in Denmark experienced a somewhat weaker retention rate due to the pricing measures. The improvement in the digital distribution index this quarter reflects an increase across all components of the index, with the strongest improvement in digital service. Distribution efficiency is progressing well as a result of improvement initiatives in Norway and Denmark. Digital claims reporting increased during the quarter, driven by Denmark and Sweden. And automated claims in Norway increased as well. Over to page 16. We had a solvency rate of 182% this quarter, down 6 percentage points from Q1. As mentioned already in the Q1 presentation, the acquisition of BioShare in April reduced solvency by approximately 4 percentage points. Some of the two operating earnings and returns from the free portfolio contributed positively to eligible-owned funds, while the formulaic dividend calculation, which corresponds to a pay rate of 80%, reduced eligible-owned funds by 1.8 billion this quarter. This is significantly more than 25% of the ordinary dividend for 2024. The increased stake in the Swedish insurance agent Varsamma reduced owned funds by approximately one percentage point. On the other hand, the increase in capital requirement during the quarter increased the share of the Tier 2 loans that is eligible by somewhat less than 300 million. We expect the full amount of that loan to be eligible by year-end as business volume grows. The capital requirement increased due to growth, changes in technical provisions and changes in currency rates. Increased exposure to property in the free portfolio also contributed to the increase in capital requirement. I'll now hand the word back to Guy.

speaker
Geir Holmgren
Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Jostein. To sum up on page 17, we are encouraged by the progress across all geographies this quarter. Although it can partly be ascribed to natural variability in claims, there is no doubt that our pricing measures have been effective and are an important driver for the increase in results. Our focus on operational efficiency remains high and our capital position is strong. making us well prepared to navigate economic and geopolitical turbulence. We are on good trajectory, and we firmly believe that we will deliver on our financial targets this year and in 2026. And with that, we'll now open the Q&A session of this presentation.

speaker
Laura
Conference Coordinator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, as a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad. We kindly ask you to ask one question per person at a time. We'll pause for a brief moment. Thank you. We will now take our first question from Hans Retail of Danske. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

speaker
Hans Retail
Analyst, Danske

Yes, good morning and thanks for taking my question and congratulations on very strong results this quarter. So I guess my question is just around private Norway and the claims development this quarter where kind of nominally speaking you're down 10% year over year and you say sort of some of that is driven by weather and it also looks like quite a lot of it is driven by the the fires that occurred in Q2 24. So I guess my question is a little bit around what should we or what is your expectation going into the second half of this year for the sort of nominal development in claims? And then the second part of that question is also, I guess, as you're saying, you're kind of very confident about your pricing measures so far. So the only uncertainty kind of lies within large losses as I see it. And how kind of certain can you be on the $2 billion guidance that you reiterate when you're at $1.2 billion so far this year? Thank you.

speaker
Jostein Amdahl
Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Hans. I think Private Norway, as you know, the two main products for Private Norway are motor and property. And if you refer to the slides that Guy used on page three and four, I think it is, you see our expectations for claims inflation going forward for these two main products of the Private Norway portfolio. And we give a range there because these are somewhat uncertain figures, but we are in this range around... Yeah, three to six, four to six percent claims inflation going forward. And then the shift in the in the motor portfolio from from fossil to electric will will continue, giving a slight increase in claims frequency for motor going forward. And that's kind of how we see it. And then we recognize that there is volatility, especially in the number of fires within private property from quarter to quarter and even from year to year, which we just need to live with, I think. And the same goes for weather effects. I think that's how far we can go in giving you any view on the second half claims development for private Norway. Large losses are inherently random. I don't see the deviation from the guidance there. significant even from a statistical perspective. This could vary quite a lot. We were blessed with few weather-related expenses in the second quarter, but there has been a number of medium-sized losses spanning all products, really, from property to marine to agriculture, and both Norway and Denmark, without any specific pattern to these losses, I would say.

speaker
Fredericksville
Analyst, ABD

Okay. Thank you very much.

speaker
Laura
Conference Coordinator

Thank you. We will now take our next question from David Barmer of Bank of America. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

speaker
David Barmer
Analyst, Bank of America

Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Firstly, on property particularly, it seems that in Q1, you expected a faster price increase and a sharper improvement of profitability in 2026. I'm just reading the slides you have at the beginning with the price increases and the frequency and severity. Has this changed a bit between Q1 and Q2? it seems like your expectations there have reduced a bit. So that's my first question. And then secondly, on the investment portfolio, so real estate started contributing nicely to the free portfolio investment results. Are you at the target allocation to the asset class now? And you also mentioned a non-recurring item in the real estate result. How much was that, please?

speaker
Jostein Amdahl
Chief Financial Officer

I don't think you should read the property slide that we have lower expectations for improvement now. We've been lucky with a good development within the second quarter in terms of volatile fires within private portfolio. But our guidance on the pricing and claims inflation and so on are fairly stable from the first to second quarter. So I probably misunderstood somewhat your question there. Real estate on the investment side, we don't have any specific plans to do anything on the real estate allocation, but there is, of course, that's a judgment that we will do on an ongoing basis, really. We haven't disclosed the specific amount from these non-recurring items, more for technical nature, which is a positive effect on the real estate return there. But the underlying development within the real estate portfolio is nonetheless very positive.

speaker
Laura
Conference Coordinator

Thank you. We will now take our next question from Ulrik Droger of Nordia. The line is open. Please go ahead.

speaker
Ulrik Droger
Analyst, Nordia

Thank you. Just one question. Can you, is it possible to quantify the impact that lower claims frequency had on the, for property in private Norway had on the combined ratio year over year?

speaker
Jostein Amdahl
Chief Financial Officer

I mean, don't disclose that detailed numbers, so I don't think I'll go into those details.

speaker
Geir Holmgren
Chief Executive Officer

If you look at second quarter last year, we actually had a high number of fires than you usually should expect if you look at the trend line in Norway when it comes to fires. And in second quarter this year, it's definitely a lower number of fires. in addition to very favourable weather conditions in general. We're trying to quantify what it actually means on a commercial level.

speaker
Ulrik Droger
Analyst, Nordia

A bit differently then. Are you happy with the overall level of the group combined ratio in this quarter? Yes, you were lucky, but it's also roughly where you need to be in the summer quarter to reach your target for 26. Is that correct?

speaker
Geir Holmgren
Chief Executive Officer

I have to admit it's a strong result based on some favorable conditions in the quarter, but also as a result of hard work over time, many different pricing measures. strengthening terms and conditions and so on. So definitely been an organization doing the right things over time from over many quarters. So now this is part of the result as well and it's helpful when we'll talk about dividend capacity as well. So it's definitely a strong result and I'm very happy with the result.

speaker
Ulrik Droger
Analyst, Nordia

Because I just see it as like Denmark, you still want to improve Denmark, of course, on the retail side, and you're still repricing above claims inflation in Norway. So I'm just trying to think about sort of the run rate when all these price increases come through versus tailwinds you had on the frequency. Yeah. Okay, but I understand you don't want to give that to those numbers.

speaker
Fredericksville
Analyst, ABD

Yeah.

speaker
Ulrik Droger
Analyst, Nordia

All right. Thank you so much. Thanks.

speaker
Laura
Conference Coordinator

Thank you. We'll now move on to our next question from Thomas Swenson of FEB. Please go ahead.

speaker
Thomas Swenson
Analyst, FEB

Yes, good morning. So if we focus on your Norwegian operations and adjustments you do yourself and the underlying picture on the combined ratio there in Norway, when you're planning on further price increases, are you thinking that this underlying combined ratio that you see should be constant around these levels, or are you planning for further improvement in the Norwegian combined ratio?

speaker
Geir Holmgren
Chief Executive Officer

As you know, Thomas, the second quarter is usually a good quarter when it comes to weather conditions. Also, if you look at the last 10 years, you will probably see that the second quarter is usually the best quarter, which also we have seen many positive impacts on this quarter as well. We are having our financial targets, as mentioned in the presentation, and as you know, below 4% this year and below 2% next year. We are still having these targets, and that's what we work to achieve, I would say. And we are still having pricing measures about inflation, but I also have to admit that we are dampening the pricing measures, as already mentioning, from July. from this month and we will definitely follow the market condition and market dynamics day by day now to understand our competitiveness and to keep up with a good position we have in the especially in the Norwegian market.

speaker
Thomas Swenson
Analyst, FEB

Okay and just a follow-up there do you see any changes in the in customer behavior in your among your Norwegian clients or is it just Stability across all segments there.

speaker
Geir Holmgren
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, retention rates very stable in Norway. I will also argue that they are stable in Denmark. Very happy to see that we have a retention rate 85% in Denmark. Somewhat little, slightly down on commercial side, but not concerned about that now. We are in a situation where I think all our competitors and all the players in the markets are doing some heavy price increases to improve the insurance results. And that's what we see also have an impact on the market dynamics as well.

speaker
Laura
Conference Coordinator

Okay. Thank you very much.

speaker
Geir Holmgren
Chief Executive Officer

Thanks.

speaker
Laura
Conference Coordinator

We'll now take our next question from Michelle Bellator of KBW. Please go ahead.

speaker
Michelle Bellator
Analyst, KBW

Yes, thank you for taking my question. So I'm just wondering, I mean, the improvement was very strong. And, of course, we can see, you know, that the clean frequency, especially in property, the improvement was also particularly strong. My question, I guess, is trying to understand the contribution from the pricing improvement that you're doing. To what extent this improvement of the pricing, I mean, how far are you in the process? If we look at 2025, do you still need to ask? Need to increase prices? I mean, yeah, I guess my question is how far you are in the process in terms of, you know, improving the overall pricing of your portfolio. Thank you.

speaker
Geir Holmgren
Chief Executive Officer

We are still continuing to reprice higher than what we have seen and forecast on the inflation side. We still have, if you look at the frequency of Motor Norway, it's... somewhat a small increase in the frequency by approximately 1% if you compare to the second quarter last year. So we are still repricing higher than the expected inflation, but also say that we continue to follow the market dynamics very closely to understand our competitiveness and to see what's necessary to do going forward as well. If you look on the revenue side, we have during the last five six quarters since we started with all the repricing or seven quarters ago we have been very confident about the revenue development but as you have definitely seen in in the past a bit volatility regarding the the claims development so and they also have to It will have some kind of volatility from quarter to quarter, and we have to understand the earned line claims development and see some kind of stabilization before we actually dampen the pricing any more than we are doing at the moment. But this is something we follow very closely, actually on a daily basis.

speaker
Michelle Bellator
Analyst, KBW

Okay, thank you. And I don't know if I can maybe follow up on a second question. Regarding the investigation in Denmark on the pricing on the index session, I just wanted to know your point of view on this, also considering the prospects there.

speaker
Geir Holmgren
Chief Executive Officer

Yes, Jens-Ida has a number four position in Denmark across private and commercial business. We are... being more challenging in the Danish market, you can argue. Having more transparency regarding pricing and pricing conditions and also being more transparent about repricing to the customers. I think that's positive. It will have a positive dynamic and impact on the market conditions. So you will probably see some changes in the Danish market going forward that the practice with using, having this indexation system where you don't give any notice to the customers if you're pricing according to the indexation. If you actually remove that, I think that will probably improve the transparency when it comes to pricing in the Danish market. If you look at our business in Denmark, good growth over time now, and I think I'm very happy to see more improvements when it comes to profitability, and definitely an upside potential going forward, but you have to work hard to realize that.

speaker
Michelle Bellator
Analyst, KBW

Okay, so I suggest a change in behavior if this investigation will lead to that. you see as a possible development?

speaker
Geir Holmgren
Chief Executive Officer

Change in behavior will be positive, but the investigation has just started and the authorities will collect a lot of data from all players in the market and it's too early to say anything about the outcome on this investigation. Thank you.

speaker
Laura
Conference Coordinator

Thank you. We will now take our next question from the late Malhotra of Mediabunker. The line is open. Please go ahead.

speaker
Malhotra
Analyst, Mediabunker

Yeah, good morning. So the one question I would choose from my side is really, you know, so we've seen that Q2 was very good from, you know, lower fires, from slightly tapering frequency. And I'm just curious, you know, the... What's driving the outlook improvement for the inflation? I think it's about one point improvement in both motor and in private lines in Norway. And I'm just curious why we think that is happening, because we just had a good quarter or is it something else you have seen or expecting? And linked to that, obviously, is that the pricing is tapering off from your side, which is following that outlook. So I'm just curious about the outlook for inflation, which is lower than the drivers. Thank you.

speaker
Geir Holmgren
Chief Executive Officer

Inflation regarding motor and property is a combination of labor costs and parts cost expenses, material expenses. We have been in a period, if you look at the last two, three years, especially in Norway, with quite... high increase when it comes to labor costs and salary expenses it's more common expectation that this will go down over time, which is part of the inflation number we forecast. In addition, we also see, expect that the material cost expenses will somewhat go down. So that's the main reason for driving the inflation forecasts slightly down. But we also, as mentioned in the presentation, there are some kind of uncertainty when it comes to supply chain and more driven by geopolitical uncertainty, which also make us have quite a wide range when it comes to the inflation forecast interval we are talking about.

speaker
Malhotra
Analyst, Mediabunker

Thank you very much.

speaker
Laura
Conference Coordinator

Thank you. We will now move on to our next question from Fredericksville of ABD. The line is open. Please go ahead.

speaker
Fredericksville
Analyst, ABD

Hi. Thank you for taking my question. I have a question about if you can make a comment on your current heat ratio and if you can comment on the decline in the pricing measures and spit it into how much of it comes from us rolling one quarter forward and how much of it is from you actively taking down your repricing?

speaker
Geir Holmgren
Chief Executive Officer

I can probably take the first one. It's a question about hit ratio when it comes to sales. That's right. As probably mentioned before, that's one of the daily kind of information we follow to understand our competitiveness in the market. On a daily basis we have been in a situation where over time have seen that 40 to 50 percent of every phone call coming into NCD is generating a sale in the Norwegian part of the business. We are still definitely within that interval, and the numbers I see now are not making me concerned about our competitiveness. If you look at the private segment in Norway, as mentioned today as well, we are getting more customers, and we have a very stable market position. And during the last couple of years, we have also seen that we have increased our market share when it comes to the commercial business in Norway as well.

speaker
Jostein Amdahl
Chief Financial Officer

Fredrik, could you please repeat the second question? I didn't quite capture what you were after there.

speaker
Fredericksville
Analyst, ABD

It was about the repark pricing measures. It's down in property from 17.5 to 14.5, and the motor is also down. And I was wondering how much of the decline is from us comparing a different quarter, we have one quarter ahead, and how much of the decline is from you actively taking down the pricing measures.

speaker
Jostein Amdahl
Chief Financial Officer

Okay, so then I understand. This is an active decision that we have already implemented in July, where the pricing increases are still significant compared to the to the estimate given the claims inflation, but a couple of percentage points lower than we've been repricing so far. So it's not a rolling effect. These are active decisions we make continuously during the year.

speaker
Fredericksville
Analyst, ABD

Okay, thank you.

speaker
Laura
Conference Coordinator

Thank you. Once again, if you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad and kindly be reminded to ask one question at a time, please. Thank you. We will now take our next question from Yadish Chikori of Autonomous Research. Please go ahead.

speaker
Yadish Chikori
Analyst, Autonomous Research

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for taking my question. So the first question, if I could go back on the topic of... claims inflation and the fact that you've moderated your expectations. I think you touched on the impact of tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty earlier on, but could you just elaborate, you know, what are your assumptions around that and whether the top end of the inflation range essentially is your expectation if some of your fears around tariffs, et cetera, materialize? That's my first question. And if I could ask a second question, please, just on your pricing. I think the gap between pricing and severity is around 9, 10 points. This is still very high. And is it that puts you in a position to potentially outperform your own target in the next couple of years? Thank you.

speaker
Jostein Amdahl
Chief Financial Officer

The first one is a very broad question. How will we suffer from any tariff or trade wars and geopolitical events? I think to narrow it somewhat down on the motor side, when repairing cars in Scandinavia, there is very little import of actual spare parts from the US, so it's mainly a European Asian supply chain which we need to look at there, which takes maybe down the risk somewhat at the moment. And on the property side, it's also a bit more kind of close to home type of materials that we're talking about. And also remember that on the property side, 75% of the claim approximately are labor related costs, whereas only 25% are are materials. And you can have all kinds of effects. A general downturn in the economy leads to less demand for these types of materials that are used in property, which could also have a negative effect on the prices. They're getting prices down. So this is a complex picture to analyze, and that's why we Take note of this uncertainty and have an interval in these claims inflation estimates that we give you. And we give you the kind of what we have experienced every quarter. And of course, as soon as we see something different, we adjust our behavior according to that. I think that's as far as I'll go in these speculations now. Okay, thank you. Second, on the pricing side, Idrish, what kind of, what actually, if you can pinpoint what you're after there.

speaker
Yadish Chikori
Analyst, Autonomous Research

Sorry, I couldn't quite catch your question.

speaker
Jostein Amdahl
Chief Financial Officer

I think you had a follow-up to the inflation on pricing, but could you try to be precise on what you're really asking for there?

speaker
Yadish Chikori
Analyst, Autonomous Research

I mean, if you maintain that kind of gap between pricing and claims inflation, then already, if you normalize your combined ratio, you're below 80. That means if you maintain this kind of pricing, you probably outperform your own combined ratio targets.

speaker
Jostein Amdahl
Chief Financial Officer

Financial targets remain as they are, both for 2025 and 2026. It's below 84 and below 82 on the combined ratio.

speaker
Yadish Chikori
Analyst, Autonomous Research

All right, okay, okay. Thank you.

speaker
Laura
Conference Coordinator

Thank you. There are no further questions in queue. I will now hand it back to Mitra for closing remarks. Thank you.

speaker
Mitra Negar
Head of Investor Relations

Thank you. Thank you, everyone, for great questions, as always. We will be participating in roadshow meetings, conferences and group investor meetings organized by brokers in August and September. So please have a look at our financial calendar on our website for more details. Thank you for your attention, everyone, and have a great summer.

Disclaimer

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