Glanbia Plc Ord

Good morning and thank you, operator, and welcome to the Glambia 2023 Full Year Results Analyst Call. During today's call, the directors may make forward-looking statements. These statements may have been made by the directors in good faith based upon the information available to them up to the time of their approval of the Glambia ELC FY 2023 Preliminary Results Announcement. Due to inherent uncertainties, including both economic and business risk factors underlying such forward-looking information, actual results may differ materially from those expressed are implied by these forward-looking statements. The directors undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statements made on today's call, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. I'm now handing the call over to Euan Maguire, CEO, Glambia PLC.

Good morning, everyone, and thank you, Liam. I'm delighted to welcome you to the Glambia full year 2023 results call and presentation, my first as CEO. I'm joined on today's call by Mark Garvey, and I will provide some highlights in 2023. Mark will then cover the financial and operational results, and I'll then give a review of the business after which we'll be very happy to turn the call over to you for questions. I'm very pleased to report that the group delivered a strong performance in 2023 with adjusted EPS growing by 20.5% to 131.37 cents, a record for Glanbia. This was driven by strong revenue and margin performance from the GPN business, where global consumer demand and optimum attrition continued its growth momentum And in our nutritional solutions business, overall volume trends continue to improve through the year, with sequential improvement in volume growth in the fourth quarter. Our strong operational and financial performance continue to generate excellent cash flow, with 90.4% cash conversion in the year. We increased returns to shareholders by raising the dividend by 10% and returning $100 million via our share buyback program. We're also very pleased to announce that today the board has approved a further 100 million share buyback for this year. We continue to deliver on our sustainability commitments. Better nutrition, better world is our global sustainability program, and we're well on track, which I'll speak to later. We also continue to make good progress on our clearly defined better nutrition strategy, which we outlined at our capital markets event in November 2022. We're focused on our two growth platforms, Glanbia Performance Nutrition and Glanbia Nutritionals. We continue to evolve our portfolio with the sale of our share in the Glanbia Cheese Joint Ventures, the sale of our non-choroseptic bottling facility, and the acquisition of an exciting bioactive ingredient business targeting immune and gut health, which strengthens our position in dairy bioactives. We've successfully navigated a volatile and inflationary environment, passing through significant double-digit price increases, while seeing price elasticity better than expected. We've increased the investment in our brands and marketing by more than 200 bps, prioritizing our growth protein brands of Optimal Nutrition, iSuffure, and Think. It was particularly pleasing to see Optimal Nutrition, our flagship global brand, break through 1.1 billion in revenue last year, delivering both volume and price growth in the period. We continue to strengthen our capabilities in digital brand innovation and sustainability, And we've just recently announced a new role of Chief Digital and Transformation Officer reporting to me that will be both an important productivity and growth lever focusing on enhancing and accelerating Glambia's digital capabilities. With that now, I will hand over to Mark for some further details on 2023.

Thanks, Hugh, and good morning to everyone on the call. I will take you through the key financial highlights for 2023 and our outlook for 2024. 2023 group revenue was $5.4 billion, which was 8.7% down on prior year. Pricing was 7.7% lower due to lower dairy pricing in the Glamby nutritionals business, while volumes were down 0.5% due primarily to destocking trends in our nutritional solutions business during the year. Group EBITDA before exceptional gains was $424 million, an increase of 16.4% constant currency due to strong GPN EBITDA growth. We saw a good increase in group EBITDA margins from 6.2% to 7.8%, with margin increases across all businesses. Adjusted earnings per share was 131.37 cents, an increase of 20.5% constant currency, and ahead of our upgraded guidance of 17% to 20%, and well ahead of our capital market state target range of 5% to 10%. We had strong operating cash flow of $446 billion, with an operating cash flow conversion of 90.4% ahead of our 80% target. Return on capital employed for the year was 12.2%, an increase from 10.7% in 2022, and at the higher end of our capital market day target range of 10% to 13%. GPN had a strong year. Revenues grew by 4.8% constant currency, with branded revenues up 5.1%. Pricing was a positive 5.4% as price increases taken in 22 were lapped during the year. Optum Nutrition, which had sales of over $1.1 billion and now represents 62% of the GPN portfolio, had revenue growth of 17% with volumes up 10.6% and pricing up 6.4%. Q4 was strong as we saw sell-in to certain customers as they prepared for new year, new you programs. Q4 volumes were up 17.2% and pricing was down 5.9% as we saw some more targets of promotional activity. For the full year, sports nutrition and lifestyle revenues were good, while SlimFast, which now represents approximately 9% of GPN revenues, was more challenged. During 2023, GPN increased brand and marketing investment by over 200 basis points, with marketing as a percentage of sales now double digits and prioritizing the protein growth brands of Optum Nutrition, Isopure, and Think, with the More of You and You campaign resonating with customers. GPN reported EBITDA of just over $255 million, an increase of 33.7% cost of currency over prior year, driven by revenue growth, operational efficiencies, and margin optimization. Overall EBITDA margins were 14.2%, an increase of 300 basis points over prior year. The second half of 23 in particular benefited from lower input costs and had two EBITDA margins for 16.3%. In 2024, we expect this trend to be somewhat reversed as freight costs have risen. Overall, we expect EBITDA margins for 2024 to be more balanced between half 1 and half 2 and for the full year sustained at least at the same level as 2023. We continue to see strong momentum from performance nutrition and healthy lifestyle brands in 2023. Optimal nutrition, which represents 62% of the GPN portfolio, grew 17%. 52-week measured U.S. consumption increasing 13.7%. International had a particularly strong year, also growing like-for-like revenue by 12.8%. The healthy lifestyle brands of Isopure, Think, and Amazing Grass, which are primarily sold in the U.S., represent 18% of GTN revenues. 2023 revenue growth was 10.7%, and 52-week measured U.S. consumption was up 11.2%. The diet category continues to be challenged, in particular the FDM channel, as underlying consumer diet behavior remains soft, and retailers have reduced shelf space. We will continue to monitor performance throughout the Q1 diet season and adjust our level of investment to get the best return. Nutritional Solutions reported revenues of just over $1 billion for 23, a decrease of 14.9% constant currency over prior year, primarily due to lower dairy pricing more than offsetting positive premix pricing and accounting for 9% of the revenue decline. Volumes declined 3.3% for the year, As we have discussed throughout 23, we saw customer destocking in both protein and premix over the year, but those trends have improved quarter on quarter. Volumes turned positive in the third quarter, and in the fourth quarter, we saw volumes increased by 8.2% as customer offtakes, particularly in dairy, were stronger than anticipated, which we do expect to somewhat balance out in Q1 24. We continue to see improvements in volumes in premix as the year progressed and expect premix volumes will be positive in Q1. Nutritional solutions, EBITDA was $126 million, down 6.2% cost of currency, and EBITDA margins improved by 110 basis points as operating efficiencies and the impact of lower dairy pricing improved margins. U.S. cheese revenues were $2.6 billion, down 13.9% cost of currency due to lower cheese markets. Volumes were marginally up, reflecting operating efficiencies in the business. US cheese EBITDA was $42 million, up 9.6% cost of currency for the year, with EBITDA margins of 1.6% up 30 basis points. EBITDA growth was driven by operating efficiencies and some milk procurement benefits during the year. Turning to cash flow, cash flow generation was strong in 23. Operating cash flow was $446 million compared to $374 million in 2022. Operating cash flow conversion improved from 85.7% to 90.4%. Operating cash flow was enhanced by a strong increase in EBITDA, as well as disciplined working capital management. From 22-year end to 23-year end, inventory balances have been reduced by over $200 million, as supply chain challenges from 22 significantly eased in 23, the impact of lower dairy pricing and programs put in place for structurally reduced inventory days across the group. Free cash flow improved from $283 million to $390 million due to the improved operating cash flow performance, lower net interest in cash payments, as well as higher dividends received from our joint ventures. The sale of the group's interest in the Columbia Cheese joint ventures generated approximately $190 million, including the repayment of shareholder loans. At year end, net debt was $249 million, down from $490 million a year earlier. representing a net debt EBITDA ratio of 0.5 times. Interest cover in 24 was over 38 times, and the group is operating well within our financial competence. The group has $1.3 billion in committed debt facilities with a weighted average maturity of 4.7 years with no facility due for renewal prior to late 27. Turning to our capital allocation framework, the group spent $52 million in strategic capital expenditure in 2023, primarily adding additional capability in nutritional solutions to meet customer needs, integration of prior acquisitions, and implementations or upgrading IT systems, including the upgrade of our group ERP systems to the latest SAP 4 HANA technology. In 2023, we acquired another dairy bio-access business for initial consideration of $45 million, enhancing our capabilities in this category. This business is in the process of being integrated with the Sterling Technologies business acquired in 2022. The group continues to return capital to shareholders with $97 billion returned via dividends. And today we announced we are increasing the 2023 final dividends by 10% so that the total dividends for 23 would be 35.43 euro cents representing a payout ratio of 29.2% and in the middle of our guided payout ratio range of 25 to 35%. In addition, the group returned 100 billion euros to shareholders via share buyback programs in 23 acquiring and counselling 7.2 million shares at an average price of €13.86. Today, we announced we intend to buy back a further €100 million of stock in 2024 and launched an initial buyback tranche of €50 million today. Some other points to note for 2023 are as follows. The share of profits for joint ventures is $12.5 million, which is lower than prior year. That is due to the sale of Lambie Achieves joint ventures earlier in the year. Net finance costs were $12.3 million and significantly lower than prior year due to lower average debt levels and returns on gross cash balances due to higher deposit rates in North America. The effective tax rate for 2023 was 14%. With the implementation of the OECD Pillar 2 rules from the beginning of 2024, we expect the group's effective tax rates to be between 15% and 17% in 2024. Exceptional items amounted to a net gain of $46 million, with a gain of disposition of operations of $56 million, somewhat offset by portfolio-related reorganization costs and pension costs. And in 2024, the group expects capital expenditure, including business-sustaining HAPEC, to be in a range of $75 to $85 billion. Next, I would like to provide some more detail on the impact of the changes in commercial arrangements associated with our joint ventures. which we announced last year and which came into effect at the beginning of 2024. In addition to these new commercial arrangements, the group will also be moving to EBITDA and EBITDA margin, reporting that we believe this is more in line with industry practice and our peers. For illustrative purposes, on this slide, you can see pro forma data for 2023, as if the new commercial arrangements were in place in 2023, as well as the EBITDA impact for 23. Group EBITDA margins for 23 were 7.8%, adding back depreciation for the group as 130 basis points, resulting in an equivalent EVA-DA margin of 9.1%. Then pro forma adjusting for the impact of the change associated with joint venture commercial arrangements, an additional 450 basis points would have been added back to get to a revised group pro forma EVA-DA margin of 13.6%. On the right side of this slide, you can see the pro forma impact on our different businesses for 23, For Glambia Nutritionals, 23 revenues of $3.6 billion will be reduced to $1.8 billion on a pro forma basis, with the most significant impact on our U.S. cheese business. There is no impact on GPN revenues. Also, EBITDA for all businesses is not impacted by these changes. EBITDA margins for nutritional solutions in 23 were 15.6%, compared to EBITDA margins at 12.5%, These EBITDA margins on a pro forma basis for the commercial arrangement changes in 23 would be 17.8%, which is the relevant basis for 24 guidance. EBITDA margins for US cheese for 23 are 2.1%, compared to EBITDA margins of 1.6%. These EBITDA margins on a pro forma basis for the commercial arrangement changes in 23 would be 5.7%. Finally, 23 GPN reported EBITDA margins of 14.2%, our equivalent of 15.7% on an EBITDA basis, which is now the basis for guidance in 24. And just now to take you through our guidance for 2024. In GPM, we expect revenue growth will be between 4% and 7%, including the 53rd week. The growth will be volume-led, and we expect some negative price with some promotional activity during the year. The guidance assumes a headwind from SlimFast of up to 2.5% as we lap distribution losses during the year. As I noted earlier, we saw strong sell-in in Q4-23 as customers prepared for new year, new you promotions, which we expect to rebalance in Q1-24. We expect Q1 revenues to be marginally back in prior year, primarily due to the strong sell-in in Q4, lapping slim-fast distribution losses and experiencing some softness in the specialty channels. In GNNS, we expect volume growth between 3% and 5% for the year, as we expect a measured rebound for the destocking activity we saw during 23. Again, as noted earlier, we did see strong customer offtake in dairy towards the end of Q4, which we expect will bounce out somewhat in Q1. Turning to EBITDA margins, we expect sustained GPN and NS EBITDA margins at least at the level achieved in 2023 of 15.7% and 17.8% respectively. We expect operating cash conversions to be over 80% for the year. The effective tax rate for 23 is 14%. With the implementation of the OECD Pillar 2 rules from the beginning of 24, we expect the group's effective tax rate to be between 15% and 17%, in 24. And adjusted earnings per share is expected to grow between 5% and 8% on a constant currency basis in 24. And with that, I'll hand it back to Hugh.

Thank you, Mark. And thank you, Liam, for a little bit of excitement this morning. Apologies for that. One of our values is find a better way. So we'll be looking at that and how we improve for next time. I'm going to take you to page 17. The purpose of Plan B is delivering better nutrition. We know that people want to live full, healthy lives, reach their physical performance goals, recover quickly, and stay strong at any age. We're competing in large and growing categories, and our top three nutrition categories represent an addressable market of almost 100 billion, with average growth rates in mid-single digits. Our portfolio of brands and ingredients meet key consumer megatrends within these categories. Performance and active lifestyles have clearly been growing trends. are now increasingly fueled by things like technology and social media influencers. In the U.S., 71% of consumers now engage in exercise at least once a week. 42% of consumers are actively incorporating more protein into their diets. And 64% of U.S. adults prioritize more energy as a top health goal. As we return to busy on-the-go lifestyles, convenience, health, and functionality are key nutrition criteria for consumers without compromising taste, functionality, or nutritional content. We're also seeing accelerating trends where our portfolio is perfectly positioned to thrive. We see demand for protein, immunity enhancement, and overall wellness as key areas of opportunity for the Glanvia portfolio. Where we've seen the most significant shift over the past year has been the area of weight management. Healthy weight loss remains a key focus with 65% of Americans stating they want to lose weight. It's no surprise that the advent of GLP-1 drugs has been a major disruptor to this category. We see from our own consumer research that protein, nutrient density and digestion are critical needs that are gaining awareness with GLP-1 users and are increasingly being recommended by health professionals. We see this as an opportunity for both our performance and lifestyle brands and our protein and micronutrient solutions. Moving to slide 18, I want to talk to you now about our two growth platforms of GPN and Nutrition Solutions and take you through our strategic priorities to drive growth in both. GPN's mission is very simple. It's about inspiring people everywhere to achieve their performance and healthy lifestyle goals. Our portfolio of authentic and unique nutrition brands appeal to consumers all over the world, with opportunity for growth across multiple geographies, channels, and usage occasions as we drive awareness and reach. Our strategic priorities are clear. Number one, capturing the global growth potential of optimum nutrition. Optimum is the world's number one sports nutrition brand, growing by 17% to become a billion-dollar brand in 2023. It now represents over 60% of the GPN brand portfolio and has experienced strong growth globally, delivering double-digit volume growth in 2023. We continue to gain share and outperform category growth in measured channels, with U.S. consumption growth last year of 13.7%. As Mark has outlined, the performance of the brand is supported by increased brand investment, and excellent execution as we continue to drive awareness and distribution gains. We've made some great progress in the year across key distribution metrics with household penetration of 11% to 4.5%, ACB of 22%, and TDPs or total distribution points of 24%. These metrics are all for U.S. measure channels, but highlight some of the progress as well as the further opportunity as we capture the potential of the brand. Second strategic priority, build a lifestyle nutrition platform in North America. Our healthy lifestyle portfolio includes the brands Think, Isopure, and Amazing Grass, and they help active lifestyle consumers achieve their goals with a range of high protein bars, protein drinks, and green superfoods. This portfolio performed well last year with US consumption growth of 11.2%. I will speak more about this portfolio in a later slide. Our third strategic priority, accelerate growth and priority international markets. We continue to accelerate in our international business, now representing 35% of GPN revenue, and we grew like-for-like revenues by 13% in 2023. The growth across the region was broad-based and driven by volume growth of the ON brand, and is supported by increased brand investment and continued development of our in-market teams and capabilities. ON continues to drive our performance, and we've seen good growth in many markets, including Mexico, Australia, Korea, and Canada. In particular, I'm pleased to see the growth of ON in the UK, our second largest market outside the US, where we continue to scale our presence as a true omnichannel player and have seen over 30% growth last year. Innovation continues to be a priority with the launch of our new ON Clear 100% plant protein and our revamped ON bar range. Our fourth strategic priority is maximizing our omnichannel opportunity, driving physical availability of our brands, reaching more consumers. We're very much an omni-channel business now, having evolved from primarily a specialty e-commerce channel business to expanding our business across food, drug, mass, globe, where it is now 35% of our global business. Over the past few years, we've built a single one-face-to-customer team to engage with all retail partners across the entire brand portfolio. We're making good progress on metrics such as household penetration, but none of our brands currently have a household penetration of more than 5%, which shows substantial opportunity for recruitment and future growth. Turning to slide 19 to speak to ON a little bit more, the Optum Nutrition brand is built in authenticity and trust, and we continue to broaden and deepen our consumer reach and relevance for a wider range of consumers. The momentum of Optum Nutrition makes it the number one sports nutrition brand in the world and also the number one in 18 countries. In terms of marketing activation, we're about to launch our latest campaign, Unlock More You, which will run in all supported markets from March this year. across all media channels and will feature for the first time on national television in the US and UK markets. We've recently announced that we've become the official sports attrition partner at McLaren Formula One. This partnership unites two brands with high performance at their core, constantly striving for better. It's also a big focus for activation in our international markets with 21 of the 24 Grand Prixs being held outside the US. Our roster of influencers and ambassadors drive brand advocacy as well as strong reach and engagement This remains a key focus for the brand, and we now have over 4,000 ambassadors, coaches, and elite athletes on the roster. And finally, there's a continued focus on innovation as we grow our distribution and use educations across a range of channels and formats. We've seen good traction in recent flavor extensions and Huey Gold standards and Amino Energy, and we have a strong future pipeline. Turning to page 20. We are very pleased with the performance of our high-protein, zero-low-carb lifestyle brand, IsoPure, where we increased marketing and investment last year. Traditionally, especially the e-commerce brand, it grew strong double-digit percent last year with expansion into club and mass channels, and we see significant opportunities for this brand with lifestyle consumers with key on-trend positioning. Approximately 72% of IsoPure consumers are new to the brand, nearly half of whom are new to the protein category. We have low household penetration of just over 1%, and lots of opportunity for distribution, particularly across grocery channels. We've just launched a new on-trend extension with isopure collagen to better serve our consumers who are looking for protein and collagen to support their healthy lifestyles. I think protein bar businesses are gaining momentum behind our core proposition of high protein, zero sugar. We increased prices significantly in both 2021 and late 2022 across the range, and as we lap those increases, we're seeing the brand respond well. We continue to increase our investment levels behind the brand, and we have a solid innovation pipeline, leveraging new flavors with good velocities and recent flavor launches of Boston cream pie and chocolate mint. And looking forward, we have an exciting licensing partnership coming in half 2024. Turning briefly to SlimFast, as Mark mentioned, the diet category continues to be challenged, particularly within the food drug mass channel, as underlying consumer diet behavior remains depressed and retailers have reduced shelf space. In addition, we continue to see the decline in keto diet demand. As expected, we've seen the decline continue behind that reduced distribution. However, although a smaller challenge for our business than FDM, we saw improved performance for the SlimFast brand within e-commerce with an increased focus on our core shake business and the launch of our new marketing campaign featuring four-hour hunger control and our innovation agenda prioritizing high-protein flavors across ready-to-drink and powders. While our UK business is also small, we've seen performance stabilize. And we continue to monitor performance throughout quarter one diet season and adjust our levels of investment and marketing media mix to the challenge and tactics that get us the best return. As I mentioned earlier, we've conducted multiple rounds of proprietary research with GLP-1 users, which validates the opportunity for our entire brand portfolio. Protein, nutrient density, and preserving muscle mass are critical needs that are gaining awareness with GLP-1 users. Based on current user demographics and behavior, we're proactively testing targeted digital advertising and website content that will enable consumers to learn more about how our brands can support and complement their weight loss journey. Turning to page 21 and our strategic priorities for Glambia Nutrition. We're the ingredients partner of choice to some of the world's leading brands. We're a leader in both custom pre-mixed solutions and protein solutions. We act as a quarterback for our customers from idea stage to commercialization, leveraging our deep innovation capability and global operational and supply chain expertise. Our first priority is building our core strength in custom pre-mix solutions. As Mark outlines, while 2023 has seen a period of customer inventory rebalancing in our micronutrient pre-mix business, the demand at a consumer level for vitamin and mineral fortification remains fundamentally unchanged. In fact, we know from a recent survey that three quarters of U.S. aloes take supplements, and 92% say they are essential to maintaining their health And this helps in our confidence that the nutrition solution business will return to growth levels in line with our midterm targets in 2024. Our second strategic priority is to scale extensive protein capability and our deep expertise in that area. We are a protein powerhouse with a full range of dairy ingredients and solutions. We continue to invest in innovation and capacity to ensure we have the best solutions to meet the growing need of consumers and customers for protein healthy snacking solutions that meet their functional taste and macronutrient needs across a complete range of formats. Consumers continue to show strong interest in formats to address the desire for convenience, clean, great tasting, healthy snacks. And our third strategic priority is scaling complementary technologies and further M&A. Nutrition Solutions is a great platform for acquisitions and for further developing our solution capability. We have a strong operating model and strong capabilities which are scalable. and our recent complementary acquisitions are performing well. Moving to slide 22, I'll talk about those in a little bit of detail. Over the past four years, we've deployed 350 million in acquisitions in this solutions area. In 2019, we acquired the Watson business, which provides further scale to our premixed nutrient business and a manufacturing base on the U.S. East Coast. In 2020, we acquired Fooderon with locations across North America, Canada, and Europe. This flavor business offers customized flavor solutions through co-creation strong technical and application support, and close collaboration with our customers. Flavours is complementary to both our pre-mix and protein offerings, and we like the strength of customer relationships that come with flavour technologies. Our 2021 acquisition of Pacmore gave us a unique position in the marketplace by vertically integrating our dairy and plant-based protein expertise with Pacmore's extrusion expertise, which enables our customers to incorporate protein into sweet and savoury snacking occasions. Our range of extruded protein crisps and protein bites for cereals and snacks is unique and gives us a firm opportunity to grow with this market. We further invested in capability at Pacmore to harness this opportunity. Lastly, we've also scaled our bioactives portfolio, which plays into a 20 billion immunity and gut health supplement segment, which is growing at rates of mid-single digits. We entered this area with the acquisition of Sterling Technologies in 2022, and we added to this with a Bolton acquisition in 2023. and we're now well-positioned to serve this market with our colostrum-enriched nutraceuticals, along with other existing products in our bioactive portfolios, such as Lactoferrin and Truncal. Turning to slide 23, Better Nutrition, Better World is Lambia's global sustainability program, and it's central to our strategy. We've made good progress over the last year and are on track against our stated targets. Our global packaging recyclability increased from 62% to 76% in 2023, We continue to look at ways to enhance that message for consumers. And during 2023, GPN partnered with How to Recycle, a leading organization in the U.S. and Canada, dedicated to simplifying and enhancing the recycling process. And as a result, GPN was assigned on-pack label accreditation, widely recyclable, for O.N. powder products, which includes the iconic O.N. Black Toe and ice beer powders. And we continue to add across the portfolio. We're well on track for our 2030 goal, 100% of our packaging being recyclable, reusable, or compostable. We're also on track for other environmental commitments relating to climate, water, and waste, and have clear targets in place, which are consistent with a 1.5 degree Celsius roadmap. We delivered a 15.9% reduction in scope one and two carbon emissions in 2023, and are well on track to reduce by 50% by 2030. In terms of water, we're dedicated to water conservation as well across all our facilities. And this year, we achieved 3.44% decrease in absolute freshwater withdrawal, which means we've reduced freshwater use intensity by 6% compared to 2021 base year. And lastly, our people. We have a strong culture and values in Glanbia and believe in the power of our people and our culture to drive that performance. Employee engagement is a key enabler. And in 2023, our Eurovoice survey had an overall response rate of 80%. and showed overall employee engagement levels increasing by plus one to 72. We continue to make progress on our DE&I journey. Our employee resources groups and network of women through Colours and Mosaic continue to scale, creating connected communities of support across the organisation. We continue to focus on female representation, recording 40% female participation and management in 2023, an increase of 2% over 2022. Turning then to page 24, the last page, investment case. The investment case for Glamby is clear. We have really strong brands and market positions as the number one player in sports nutrition, the number one in protein solutions, and the number two in customized pre-mix solutions. We compete in attractive nutrition markets supported by powerful and growing consumer trends. We continue to reshape and simplify our portfolio, and our operating models are always evolving to prioritize greatest growth initiatives while continuing to improve our profitability. Our culture is performance-driven and values-led. We have a strong team and culture, and we continue to build out key capabilities to capture opportunities that can drive further value. We have a strong balance sheet and earnings potential that facilitates investment and strong shareholder return. After a record earnings growth in 2023, and based on our current assessment of the environment, we're expecting to deliver growth of 5% to 8% adjusted earnings per share in 2024. And with that, operator, I would like to open the call to questions.

Thank you. If you would like to register a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad and please ensure you are unmuted locally. If you would like to withdraw your question, please press star followed by two. That's star followed by one on your telephone keypad to register a question. Our first question today is from Cathal Kenny from Davie. Cathal, please go ahead. Your line is open.

Morning all, and thanks for taking my questions. First question is on the revenue guide for GPN. If we back out slim fast, it looks like you're guiding at least mid-single-digit volume growth for 24 for GPN. Interested to know the building blocks, provide maybe a little bit more color around the drivers of that assumption. That's my first question. Second question is on, Hugh, you've elected to obviously prioritize your marketing and brand spend and investment. around three brands, which you characterize as protein growth brands. Maybe you can provide us a little bit of color in the thought process behind that, please. There were two questions. Thank you.

Thanks, Paul. Good morning. They're probably both connected. I think ultimately, it's all about opportunity and what provides the greatest opportunity and reallocating investment around those highest growth opportunities. In terms of reverent growth, yeah, you're right. We're being vicious for growth across the portfolio. And I think when you look at it, we'd be looking at, and I've alluded to that in some of my comments as well, velocity will obviously be a key part of that. And clearly, Investing buying the brand will help in increasing awareness and consideration of those brands. Distribution, we see significant distribution opportunities across international and also in the US. And I mentioned that I think there's opportunities to drive our ACV distribution in the US and international continues to grow strongly. And lastly, innovation is also supporting that. So when we think about it, it's the increased investment in brand marketing around the greatest opportunities. which are the three brands we outlined, and we're seeing good growth in all three.

And do you plan to step up your marketing spend relative to sales again in 24?

I would say probably the same percentage of marketing, I think, in 24 versus 23. From a phasing perspective, probably more of that will go into first half versus second half, and that probably is how you saw my comments around a more balanced margin as well, first half, second half, maybe that you saw in 23. But as a percentage of sales, it should remain roughly the same as 23.

Thank you.

Thank you. Our next question today is from Patrick Higgins from GoodBuddy. Patrick, please go ahead. Your line is open.

Thank you. Morning, everyone. A couple of questions on my end. So firstly, just in terms of I guess the competitive landscape in GPN and promotional intensity, you know, through Q4 and into Q1, you know, was that kind of more or less than you had anticipated? And I guess what's your expectations on promotional kind of activity or intensity through this year? And then also, how should we think about your price point relative to competitors at this stage? Are you comfortable where the price point is? Second question is just around the way cost backdrop, particularly the higher grade way, which we obviously don't have as much visibility on. Could you just give us an update there? And I guess you're hedging for 2024 and visibility on your way cost for the year ahead. Thank you.

Morning, Patrick. How are you? I'll take the first kind of two parts of the question and Mark will talk about way. In terms of competitive landscape, quarter four to quarter one, I suppose the first thing I'd say is We tend now to look at quarter four and quarter one together because there's so much investment as we get ready for new year, new you, innovation, and ensuring we have the right inventory and the right channels at the right time to support those promotions. All of our promotional spend in quarter four was planned. It was planned particularly around key initiatives in our club and e-commerce channels. What I'd say on promotional intensity, I think in January, we saw the same, what I'd say is higher than 2022, but back in line with prior norms in terms of promotional intensity. But we have seen that moderate as we move through quarter one. And in terms of price points, no, very comfortable with price points. All of the spend really is around trade spend and promotional support, supporting the brands. We have some tactical price reductions on smaller brands that have had price drops in commodities, but in terms of our core kind of hero skews and portfolio, we're comfortable with the price points at the moment.

Yeah, Patrick, in terms of weight costs, yeah, we are in a period where they're rising somewhat now. You might recall back in the end of 22, we had very high weight costs into early 23. We procured well then as weight costs came down, so we actually have a benefit coming through with our second half of 23 and it will help us in the first half of 24 as well, but we will see some higher weight costs come into our second half of 24. We are procured now through the third quarter, so we've still got a quarter to go, but we feel reasonably comfortable, I would say, in terms of what we've procured to date, and obviously we're keeping a close eye on the market. Clearly, demand for whey did spike a bit in the end of Q4 23, and that's why, of course, you saw that offtake as well in our nutritional solutions business in terms of dairy protein also.

That's great. Thank you.

Thank you. Our next question today is from Alex Sloan from Berkeley. Alex, please go ahead. Your line is open.

Yeah, morning all. Two questions from me, please. Just firstly on cash flow, another very strong performance. They're really setting the bar here. I guess even after the 100 million buyback, the balance sheet is going to be in a a healthy position. So the question really is on the state of the M&A pipeline and your priorities from here. I guess we haven't seen much in GPN here in terms of M&A in recent years. Are there more opportunities here in the U.S. or internationally, or should we be thinking more about M&A activity continuing in NS? That's the first one, if okay. And then just secondly, just on the GPN growth outlook. for 24. Any material differences you'd expect in that outlook across channels? I think you referenced in the comments some softness in specialty. Maybe we could get a bit more color on that and what's offsetting, assuming that's perhaps club and online. Thanks.

Yeah, maybe. Do you know what? I'll answer the GPN questions first and the M&A, and then I'll hand over to Mark, who's doing a superb job on cash flow. The GPN growth first. Yeah, it's very early in the year, Alex. So at this stage, we're just tracking trends. We're happy with our growth at the start of the year. We're seeing good growth in our club, e-com and grocery channels. Specialty is a little soft at the start of the year. We're just watching that carefully. It's soft across the entire year. industry and category. But that's all built into our assumptions and guidance that we've given you. In terms of M&A, I suppose when you think about the growth priorities for GPN, there's a lot of organic growth opportunity, as I outlined, in terms of distribution, penetration, awareness, international and North America. So that's the priority for the business right now. But that's not to say that we don't They were not looking at potential opportunities, but I would say that Nutrition Solutions is the bigger priority in terms of M&A right now, and we have an active pipeline.

Yeah, and cash flow, I appreciate the recognition, Alex, in terms of cash flow performance. The businesses are doing a really, really great job in managing working capital, and it gives us more optionality, frankly, which is why we have the confidence. to announce that we can do a 100 million buyback straight off the bat. But basically, with a 0.5 times net debt EBITDA number at the end of the year, and even with, as you say, the buyback, the dividend, et cetera, we have optionality as we look at opportunities this year now, which we feel really good about.

Thank you.

Thank you. Our next question is from Nicola Tang from BNP Paribas Exxon. Nicola, please go ahead. Your line is open.

Hi, everyone. Thanks for taking the questions. Actually, the first was a bit of a follow-up on Alex's question around capital allocation. I was wondering, you know, you clearly talked about your confidence in cash generation. And so just wondering why the 100 million euro buyback is the right amount to repeat this year. And the second question, just a quick one in terms of Q1, you talked a little bit about how – You know, maybe we need to look at Q4 and Q1 together with respect to kind of new year, new you campaigns. Can you just clarify a bit more what you're seeing so far in Q1 on the GPN side? And I think you also mentioned a similar kind of phasing thing on NS as well. So maybe you could just clarify on NS expectations in Q1 as well. Thanks.

Good morning, Nicola. In terms of capital allocations, the first time actually we've announced 100 million right off the bat, so we actually feel pretty confident around that. We tend to have done these in 50 million tranches, so for now we feel pretty comfortable. The board obviously have confidence in terms of what we can do there. Talking to the GPN and NSQ4Q1 Yeah, obviously our comments, we're just trying to make clear to everybody that there was a strong selling in Q4. That's something that we did with our customers. We're seeing good consumption and optimal nutrition in the first quarter, so we feel very good about that. I said the first quarter may be back. That's primarily going to be SlimFast, but maybe a little bit of the specialty point that Hugh mentioned earlier. I said StimFast is a 2.5% negative for the year. That's around a 5% negative for the first quarter, because as you can imagine, StimFast is more over-indexed in terms of the first quarter, so distribution losses do have an impact on us. In terms of nutritional solutions, you're very pleased with the trajectory in nutritional solutions as we sort of end the year. We saw that demand coming through, as I said, on the protein side. So you see some of that come off in terms of balancing Q4, Q1. But the good news that we're very happy with is the pre-mix will be positive in the first quarter in terms of volume. So that's the trajectory we've been managing through all 2023 as customers are just managing their own inventories. So you'll see that coming through in the first quarter. So you'll see a positive volume print for Q1 for NS, Probably won't be at the 3% level at that point, but it will be a positive print in terms of items in the Q1.

Thank you. Thank you. Our next question is from Lauren Molyneux from Citi. Lauren, please go ahead. Your line is open.

Hi. Morning, all. Thanks for taking my question. Back on TPM, just looking at the growth, the international growth was obviously quite strong again. Just wondering if you could talk through maybe what's driving this. Is this more volume-led or pricing-led? And what's the benefit from distribution expansion there as well? Then similarly, thinking about the portfolio, I guess how should we think about SlimFast brand and its position within your portfolio? How do you feel about the turnaround of that business going forward? And then my final question just on NF, obviously the volume improvement in the final quarter. I wonder if you could talk more about how you're seeing the demand in that business evolving. Is there any color you can give on the demand for the different platforms? And then also looking at your recent acquisitions have been quite focused on the gut health and immunity side of things. And how confident are you of that growth rate continuing going forward? And is that a meaningful part of your business now? Thank you.

Good morning, Lauren. How are you? So maybe starting with the GPN question and international and volume price, it's both volume and price led. We are very happy with the performance. And what's driving that? I think investment. I called it out. Firstly, we have, you know, we continue to build strong, capable teams everywhere. in brand and commercial across our international markets that can drive distribution growth across omnichannel, but also that we can invest in brand. We've made a substantial investment over the last four years, in fact, in people and in brand marketing. So that's supported a lot of the growth and we would see strong growth again in terms of, and it's primarily optometrician as well, is the way you should think about it. So we're seeing strong demand for performance nutrition, for protein. And it's the capability on the ground that's helping support this. In terms of SlimFast, I said it earlier on, it's obviously the category has significant challenges. The diet category, we've seen retailers consolidate shell sets, particularly in North America and in food drug mass, where traditionally the band had scaled. But it's a smaller brand now. It's a more focused brand on meal replacement, primarily shakes and powders. We've right-sized the investment for that scale of brand. And as I said, we're seeing some small but green but small shoots. So the way you should think about it, it is primarily a smaller ready to drink protein business in our portfolio now. It still is a scale protein ready to drink business for our portfolio. And lastly, just in terms of nutritional solutions, I think we see growth equally across the major platforms of protein and customized pre-mixed solutions. And the recent acquisition is really interesting in the dairy bioactive area. I think that's an area that we can build out. It's still small scale, but it's an exciting new growth opportunity for us.

Thank you. Our next question is from Karel Zote from Kepler. Karel, please go ahead. Your line is open.

Yes, good morning all. Thanks for taking the questions. I have two follow-up questions. The first one is on your margin outlook for GPN and particularly in relation to volume leverage because you guys for significant growth of probably your most profitable brand and SKU. So if I think about margin outlook, it seems that there certainly will be some volume leverage. There will be some mixed benefits. Marketing investments will be stable. So is your outlook for stable margin in GPN a bit cautious? And the other question is then as a follow-up on your non-US strategy and also in relation to the digital strategy and new chief digital officer, does it imply that with the focus on ON that ambitions for the European direct-to-consumer platform are now really scaled back? And when it comes to the non-US business, in general, I think the UK and Australia has been successful, but elsewhere it's been fairly volatile. So is the approach going forward still one to focus on really these strong markets or one of more expansion? Thank you.

Well, I might take the GPN questions and start from the back and move forward, and Mark will answer the margin outlook question. Look, the international business always has a degree of volatility. As we talk about internally, there's often a war somewhere in the world. So we will see that volatility on occasion. But I think our business and teams have strong capability in navigating that, whether it's the carbon conflict in Gaza at the moment, whether it's the Korean War, there'll always be some challenges there. And then we'll also see some challenges on trade and regulatory changes across markets. But it's fair to say the team managed that very, very well and execute really well. So what I'd say is the opportunities in both markets, whether it's our scale tier one markets, and I call that the UK had a very good year last year. Australia also had a good year last year, and so did a number of our markets. But that's the same approach, which is building in-market, on-the-ground competency, brand and business builders, and then investing behind the brands and driving distribution. So we'd see opportunity in both. The smaller question in D2C, the role of digital is an exciting role for us. We've made a big investment in technology in recent years. Mark called out our investment in SAP for HANA. I think there's great opportunity to leverage this. I think there's opportunity for us to automate and digitize more across the organization. It's a far broader role than just direct-to-consumer. The lady we appointed, Wendy Chan-Smith, was the CFO of GPN. She's with us about three years and has strong expertise from Amazon, Kellogg's, J&J. And it's really about building the right structures to support growth. So D2C will be a component of that. And I wouldn't say D2C is broader than just our local brand in Europe. We now treat the Body & Fit brand as a local jewel. But we have over 20 direct-to-consumer sites across the world that we continue to build out. So it's more a competency and capability under Wendy's team. In terms of And I think I've covered all questions. I'll hand it over to Mark on margin.

Morning, Carol. In terms of your question on margin, I suppose, firstly, I'd say we're very happy that we're well ahead of our capital market state targets in terms of the GPN margins that we actually posted in 23. Obviously, 24, we're saying they will be at least at that level. You might recall in November, I said we'd be broadly in line. So to some extent, I've given a bit of a small upgrade to that. To your point, clearly there are some operating leverage points that we will be able to get with volumes, probably a little bit of a negative from the SlimFast perspective. I have a very good idea what the marketing spend will be. Well, I don't know yet what the fourth quarter in terms of way procurement, so there is still some uncertainty there. So I expect we'll evolve that as we go through the year, but we do have the confidence to say it would be at least at the level that we predicted for 2023 at this point.

Super. Thank you.

Thank you. Our next question is from Rashad Carlin from Morgan Stanley. Rashad, please go ahead. Your line is open.

Hey, thank you. And morning, Hugh and Mark. Thanks for taking my questions. A couple for me, please, and apologies if you've already covered this. I missed a couple minutes of the call initially. But firstly, on the shape of the P&L, how do you expect that to evolve? I know you spoke about Q1, but maybe through the next kind of three quarters around GPN and NS. How do you think about the evolution of the P&L from a pricing volume and mix perspective? And then if I can just follow up on the margin point, I mean, clearly you're setting a floor, but if I look at the second half margins for GPN, I mean, I think you're north of 16% versus the 14.2 for the year. So I guess what would kind of bring margins back to kind of the full year level as opposed to getting to closer to that second half level that you reached in the second half? I know you talked about some of the drag around slim fast or maybe freight rates, et cetera, but is it more on the side of conservatism given the unknowns or are there any specific dynamics that will bring it down closer to 2023? Thank you.

No problem, Rishad. I'll just go straight into those questions. I think in terms of the margin for the first half in 2024, Obviously, if we do have positive input cost benefits there, you will see we're over-indexing our marketing spend in the first half versus the second half next year. So although it's 10% for the full year, it'll be over that in the first half, it'll be under that in the second half. We're sort of moving to get a good start for the year in terms of driving the velocities that Hugh talked to as well. Now in the second half of next year, we also will see higher weight costs. So that is something we also have to take into account in terms of our overall balance for the year. So albeit you will see margins higher in the first half than the second half, you won't see as big a differential as you saw in first half, second half last year because of the marketing balancing that we're doing as well over the year. And we're trying to be, I think, reasonable at this point of the year in terms of where we expect to be. And I think we can update you more, obviously, when we come and also get our first quarter through and probably we'll have four quarter way procured at that point in time. In terms of your question on trajectory during the year, if you look at nutritional solutions, as I said, you're probably with the volumes a little bit in the low single digit positive in the first quarter. In fact, by the first half, I'd expect the volumes in nutritional solutions to be pretty much at the guide range that I'm giving in terms of 3% to 5%. and you see that then carry out through the year so it's really just the dairy impact we're seeing in the first quarter versus the fourth quarter last year and when you look at gpn uh basically for the full year as i said we're back a little bit in the first quarter um i think that by the time you get to the full year you will see volumes obviously thriving the overall uh the overall position for the year with price probably a one to two percent negative i think by the time you look at some of the promotional activity we'll have during the year. So it obviously means you'll see more back half volume coming through as that marketing kicks in and the velocities we expect will kick in as well. But that's how we see the shape at this point of that house.

Thank you very much. Congrats on the results. Thank you.

Thank you. Our last question today is from Damian McNeill from Numis. Damian, please go ahead. Your line is open.

Hi, thank you very much. Morning, Mark. Morning, Hugh. Just two questions. The first one is on your marketing spend. I was just sort of wondering, I know you sort of up-weighted it last year by 200 bits. It's going to be broadly stable this year as a percentage of sales, but I was just wondering whether, within that, how much more Isopur and Zinc are getting, if that's the case, given the increased focus on those brands. And then the second question is, is on glp i'm just wondering if you could give us a little bit more data on or a bit more information on how large the study is that you're undertaking how what sort of time frames are we looking at um yeah just any more granularity you can give will be helpful please yeah i when i said that we've done a number of studies uh

across multiple different consumer groups, so it would be hard to quantify the number, but they'd be significant. But it's more, they're also part of broader work we do around our brand portfolio anyway, Damien, so it's one component of it. And I think the bit that we're really interested in is the significant increased interest in protein. What we see from consumers is, yes, they are, it most definitely works, there is most definitely calorie reduction, but consumers are looking for ways then to consume protein as part of that. They're getting increasingly concerned about muscle mass as well as our medical practitioners. I think that speaks to opportunity across our broader portfolio of brands and ingredients, which we're excited about. In terms of marketing, we don't break out the components. It was greater than a 250% increase in marketing. We'll sustain that as we go into next year. The two brands, Think and Icepure, are small, but I would say in context, albeit small, we have tripled Icepure marketing spend in the last two years. We'll give you some sense on how we're shifting our marketing spend around because we see significant opportunity, as I called out. It's got very low household penetration, just over one. It's got very low distribution. It traditionally was a special e-commerce business, and it's very much on trend in terms of the highest quality protein, zero carbs, fortified with vitamin and minerals. and great positioning target lifestyle consumers. So as we would always do in terms of our portfolio, we're pivoted to the brands that will drive greatest growth. Okay. Thank you very much.

Thank you. This is all the questions we have today, so I'd like to pass back to management for any further or closing remarks.

That's great. Thank you very much. Apologies for the excitement at the start of the call and technicians, but thank you very much for joining and I look forward to meeting most of you over the next couple of weeks.