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Glanbia Plc Ord
11/5/2025
Good morning and welcome to the Glambia Q3 2025 interim management statement call. During today's call, the directors may make forward-looking statements. These statements have been made by the directors in good faith based on the information available to them up to the time of their approval of this interim management statement. Due to the inherent uncertainties, including both economic and business risk factors underlying such forward-looking information, actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by these statements. The directors undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statements made on today's call, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. I'm now going to hand the call over to Hugh Maguire, CEO of Glanbia PLC.
Thank you, Liam. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Glanbia Quarter 3 2025 Interim Management Statement call and presentation. On today's call, I will provide an overview of our performance for the first nine months of the year, And I'm joined by my colleague, Mark Garvey, who will cover the financials and outlook. At the end of the presentation, we will be very happy to take your questions. Overall, quarter three year-to-date performance for the group was ahead of our expectations. Group revenue increased by 3.3%, with strong performances in our performance nutrition and health and nutrition segments in the third quarter, and continued good growth in our dairy nutrition segments. In performance nutrition, like-for-like revenue increased by 2.5% year-to-date, excluding the impact of SlimFast and Body & Fit. We continue to see strong consumer demand, with double-digit volume growth in the third quarter in our priority growth brands, Optimum Nutrition and Isofure. In health and nutrition, we continue to see good momentum, with strong demand from end-use markets, with like-for-like revenue growth of 6.1% year-to-date. And in dairy nutrition, we saw strong volume growth across proteins and cheese and an increase in pricing driven by protein solutions. We continue to make good progress on our group-wide transformation program to simplify our business and drive efficiencies across our new operating model, supporting the next phase of growth. We've completed the sale of non-core brands Body & Fit and SlimFast in our performance nutrition division, and we acquired SweetMix within our health and nutrition division. We continue to focus on shareholder returns by leveraging our strong cash flow. And in the year to date, we repurchased and canceled over 15 million Landvia shares at a cost of 197 million euro, which represented an average purchase price of 13 euro 10. I'm pleased to say that based on the continued momentum within our performance nutrition segment, we are upgrading our like-for-like revenue guidance for the full year to 3% to 4%, excluding the impact of SlimFast and Body & Fit. And we now expect full-year adjusted earnings per share to be at the upper end of our full-year guidance range of $1.30 to $1.33. We look forward to meeting investors and analysts at our capital market today in London on the 19th of November, where we will have an opportunity to develop more into the growth strategy for the group and associated financial targets. Performance nutrition delivered a better than expected performance during the period, with like-for-like revenue increasing by 2.5%, excluding the impact of SlimFast and Body & Fit, which have now been sold. In the third quarter, we delivered a sequential improvement, growing like-for-like revenue by double digits, excluding the impact of disposed brands. Year-to-date, the volume performance was driven predominantly by strong category growth, with good growth in food drug mass and e-commerce channels in both the U.S. and international markets. somewhat offset by low revenue in the club and specialty channels in the US, and a reduction in margin dilutive promotions. We continue to scale our international business, which delivered strong like-for-like growth of 8.8% year-to-date, excluding slim, fast, and body and fit, particularly in Asia Pacific. Pricing was broadly in line with expectations with marginally negative year-over-year impact as a result of tactical price changes, primarily relating to higher margin products in the energy category, which are delivering a strong volume uplift. We continue to navigate ongoing elevated whey prices driven by strong category demand and have responded to this inflation by increasing prices in our international markets in the first quarter of the year. Pricing in the US markets comes into effect in the fourth quarter. We continue to expect approximately 15 to 20% of new whey protein isolates supply from the back end of 2025 and through 2026. In terms of brand performance, Optimum Nutrition, our largest brand at 68% of performance nutrition revenue, delivered like-for-like revenue growth of 4.6% and U.S. consumption growth of 8.8%. We saw strong double-digit growth in the U.S. food drug mass channel, growing ahead of the category, and continued strong growth in the online channel. We continue to grow our household penetration and expand the brand's distribution. We have a world-leading portfolio of high-quality products within the Optimum Nutrition and iSphere brands, and we continue to focus on innovation and education. We've launched a number of products this year, such as Optimum Nutrition ProQuench, ClearWay Collagen, and new products across our creating platform, plus the extension of our iSphere proposition into gut health and immune system support. And we're seeing good growth in our non-Huey innovation products for both brands. Our education effort continues to pace, including the Optimum Insiders event we hosted at the McLaren Technology Center, the launch of the Optimum Nutrition Academy program in the U.S., and the continued rollout of Coach Optimum, our AI-powered virtual coach into new markets. Our healthy lifestyle portfolio delivered like-for-like revenue growth of 2.6% and U.S. consumption growth of 6.8%. Our priority growth lifestyle brand, Isopure, continues to enjoy strong growth across all our channels. We introduced a new look and formula for Isopure improving brand visibility and flavor, and we also launched our new creative campaign, More of What Matters, driving continued growth in household and TDP. We'll continue to roll out and mark the test of our new ready-to-drink innovation, ice to pure protein water. As stated already, due to the momentum in the third quarter, which we see continuing in the fourth quarter, we are pleased to upgrade our full-year like-for-like revenue guidance to 3% to 4% growth, excluding the impact of slim fast and body and fist. Turning to our health and nutrition segment, which comprises the pre-mixed solutions and flavors platforms, and focuses on priority high-growth end-use markets, such as vitamins, minerals, and supplements, active lifestyle nutrition, and foundation of beverages. This segment delivered a strong performance in the year to date, delivering like-for-like revenue growth of 6.1%. This was driven by a 6.9% increase in volume and a 0.8% decrease in price. Total revenue increased by 11.5% as a result of a 7.6% increase in the acquisitions of flavor producers and sweet mix, somewhat offset by a decrease of negative 2.2% as a result of the impact of the 53rd week in the prior year. We are pleased with the strong performance in the quarter, which is driven by good growth across BMS and functional beverage markets, and we continue to see good broad-based demand, with strong growth particularly in EMEA and Asia-Pacific. Pricing was slightly negative as a result of certain pass-through pricing with customers. During the third quarter, we completed the acquisition of SweetMix, a high-quality Brazil-based nutritional premix and ingredient solutions business, which will allow continued expansion in the Latin America region. We'll continue to invest in innovation and new capabilities and are building out our new powder flavor capability We're planning a capital investment in flavor spray drying that allows us to capture additional opportunities across a broader B2B customer base. In terms of guidance, we are reiterating our full year guidance of mid-single-digit like-for-like revenue growth in 2025, which will be predominantly volume-led and is currently tracking towards the upper end of the range. Dairy Nutrition combines our U.S. cheese and dairy protein portfolios and has largely one integrated manufacturing footprint with a high supply and operational interdependency. And it's also the route to market for our joint venture supply of whey and cheese ingredients. This business provides a scale leadership position in dairy as a leading producer of whey protein isolate and the number one producer of American-style cheddar cheese. In the year to date, like-for-like revenue increased by 6.1%, driven by a 3.5% increase in volume and a 2.6% increase in price. Total revenue increased by 3.2% as a result of a negative 2.9% decrease from the impact of the 53rd week in the prior year. The volume increase was seen across cheese and protein solutions with strong whey protein demand particularly targeting the high protein ready-to-eat category. And we continue to see good demand for colostrum targeting gut health and immunity. Pricing increase was largely driven by favorable dairy market pricing in the first half of the year, with strong protein markets in particular. Broader dairy market pricing turned negative during the third quarter. Portfolio 25 will continue to expect profit growth across dairy nutrition and our joint venture combined. And with that, I will hand over to Mark.
Thank you, and good morning to everyone on the call. The group has a strong balance sheet, and at the end of the third quarter, net debt was just under $719 million. We have committed facilities of approximately $1.4 billion with an average maturity of three years. At year-end, we expect net debt to adjust to EBITDA to be approximately 1.25 times. The acquisition of SweetMix in Brazil closed in August for $41 million. The disposals of SlimFast US, SlimFast UK, and Body & Fit have now been completed. as of September 22nd, October 20th, and October 31st, respectively. Prior to completion, these businesses had generated approximately $105 million of revenue in 2025. Total consideration for these transactions, including working capital transfers, was approximately $63 million, of which $14 million has been deferred up to 15 months. Following these transactions, a further charge of approximately $30 million is expected to be taken related to the sale of the Stimpass brand, which will be confirmed with our annual accounts. Capital expenditure, both strategic and business-sustaining initiatives for the year, is expected to be between $80 million and $90 million. with investments primarily related to ongoing capacity enhancements, business integrations, and IT investments to drive further efficiencies in operations. During the first nine months of the year, the group repurchased approximately €197 million worth of ordinary shares via our share buyback program. which equated to over 15 million Glambia shares as an average purchase price of €13.10. Shares repurchased represented over 5% of the weighted average number of ordinary shares in issue at the beginning of the year. Approximately €103 million in dividends were also returned to shareholders this year in line with our dividend payout ratio of 25% to 35%, of adjusted earnings per share. We look forward to the opportunity to review our capital allocation framework with you at our upcoming Capital Markets Day on the 19th of November. Now let me turn to our outlook on, firstly, revenue growth. We are pleased to upgrade performance nutrition revenue growth expectations. We now expect performance nutrition life-for-life revenue growth, excluding slim, fast, and body and fit, to be 3% to 4%, previously 2% to 3%. We continue to see strong growth in the category, which is supporting growth of the second half, alongside distribution gains and planned innovation. Providing further confidence, in the third quarter, we saw strong sequential improvements particularly in our option nutrition brand, which increased like-for-like revenue by 14.3% in the quarter. Health and nutrition has delivered good performance year-to-date across pre-mixed solutions and flavors platforms. While we continue to expect like-for-like mid-single-digit revenue growth for the full year, the business is currently tracking towards the upper end of this range. Moving on then to earnings expectations. In performance nutrition, we continue to navigate elevated weigh costs, and we have now procured our weigh needs through the first half of 2026, with weigh costs remaining elevated due to strong end market demand. As previously discussed, we have line of sight to approximately 15% to 20% of new whey protein isolate supply coming to market late 2025 through 2026, which has been somewhat delayed from expectations earlier in the year. We have implemented pricing in our international markets in Q2 and in the Americas in Q4, and we anticipate further pricing actions in 2026 as demand for protein is expected to remain strong. Performance nutrition EVA-DA margins are tracking towards the lower end of the 13% to 14% guide range for the full year as we manage some dis-synergies for the remainder of the year related to the disposals I've mentioned earlier. Health and nutrition EBITDA margins are expected to be between 18% and 19% for the year. Dairy nutrition delivered a strong performance year-to-date on the back of good volume growth in protein solutions and strong dairy market pricing in the first half of the year. We continue to expect profitability growth and our joint venture operations combined as previously guided. Operating cash flow conversion is expected to be over 80% for the year. Finally, we are also pleased to update adjusted earnings per share expectations to the upper end of the previously guided range of 130 to 133 cents. And with that, I will turn it back to Hugh.
Thanks, Mark. Just to close, I'd like to reinforce our conviction that Lambia remains well positioned for growth. In terms of our focus, we're pleased to upgrade our revenue guidance in our performance nutrition division today as we're seeing improved trends with strong growth in the category. We also continue to see strong customer demand in our health and nutrition and dairy nutrition segments. We continue to execute initiatives as part of our group-wide transformation program across our four pillars, simplifying our organization and delivering efficiencies for the next phase of growth. We are navigating high-end way prices carefully with a number of initiatives ongoing to address this. We continue to invest in key talent and capabilities to drive growth across our great portfolio of better nutrition brands and ingredients. It operates in exciting categories with market-leading positions in high-growth end-use markets. We are focused on delivering long-term growth and shareholder value. And with that, I would like to hand it over to the operator for questions.
Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. As a reminder to ask a question, please press star 1 1 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star 1 1 again. We will now take our first question from the line of Alex Sloan from Barclays. Please go ahead, Alex.
Hi, good morning all. Thanks for taking the questions. The first one, actually just to dig in a little bit on the impressive acceleration in optimum nutrition in quarter three. You've given some stats that show that, you know, obviously some of that has been driven by new distribution, but actually there's been also a strong healthy uptick in consumption growth in the U.S. So just wondering, sort of, you know, kind of slightly at odds with what we're hearing on the kind of broader U.S. consumer. So... what you think is driving that and how sustainable you see that with kind of potentially more pricing, as you allude to, to come. And the second one, in terms of the margin outlook, obviously, thanks for the colour there, in terms of tracking towards the lower end of that 13 to 14, as we think about... 2026 and the moving parts I mean it sounds like that you know weight costs are maybe slightly more elevated how should we be thinking as early days but how should we be thinking about 26 margin outlook for PN in this environment thanks Good morning, Alex.
Hugh here. I'll let Mark take the margin question, and maybe I'll address the acceleration and O.N. I suppose the first thing I'd say is I'm very happy with consumption of the quarter and performance across our priority growth brands. A mixture of reasons. I think we're seeing very strong growth across our protein and creatine categories. Certainly strong category growth in powders and ON and isopure continue to take share. We're seeing strong growth in international as well, as you'll see from the numbers. Some new distribution wins in the quarter in the U.S. particularly. and no longer lapping private label impacts that we spoke about earlier on in the year. And then a little bit of innovation. But I think it's happy that majority is velocity with a little bit of distribution in there. So overall performance is very strong. You know, I think what I'd say as well is, look, Protein is a mega trend. Good demand for powders. They're the highest quality, the cleanest ingredients, the most versatile, and they have a low cost per serve. So we're seeing the powder category growth rates accelerate. So overall, very happy with that. In terms of pricing, we've priced earlier on in the year in international markets. We saw a little bit of elasticity, but once the market's competitors reacted, we're not seeing that elasticity now. We're back into volume growth. I think for North America, given the timing, elasticity, we're not expecting significant elasticity at this point in time. Price increases go live this week. Consumption is strong. Our consumers are highly engaged in the category. It's an affordable product, so we'd be positive about outlook as we go into quarter four and into 2026.
Alex, just on your margin question, you're right, we did say it's going to be towards the lower end of the range, primarily because of the sales that we just announced. We have some dissonances we have to manage through, and we'll manage through those at the early 26th, so I'm not overly concerned about them. We'll sort of manage through that. You're right, these early days for 26th at this point, and we'll obviously talk a lot more about this when we get to our full year results. I would say at this point that we're very comfortable with the revenue and momentum we're seeing, and we probably expect to see that now coming into 26. Overall, I would expect to see the GAA and margin progression into 26. We have acquired our way now for the first half. We had said that we might recall the last call we acquired to pay for the first quarter, and I said that price was pretty much in line with the second half, 25. Now that we've acquired the first half, it's marginally higher than the second half of 2025. We are putting price increases through in North America. They're done now, and that will be coming through in market. And I expect, as we see equities to be elevated, we'll probably be putting more price increases through next year to be determined in terms of timing. There will also be a margin benefit, obviously, for the body of sales, a slim, fast sale that will help us work will help as well, and as we start to increase more marketing as well, all in all, I still expect to see margin progression from 25 to 26.
Very helpful. Thank you.
Thank you. We will now take our next question from the line of Patrick Higgins from Goodbody. Please go ahead, Patrick.
Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Maybe just focusing on health and nutrition, obviously another really strong print in terms of volumes there. You know, obviously at the time of the H1s, you were expecting maybe a little bit of a slowdown just on possible tariff pull through in Q2. Was that, you know, perhaps a touch conservative on your part, or did you just see a kind of uplift in terms of the e-media and Asia-Pacific markets that offset that? And clearly, you know, really strong given the broader consumer trends we're seeing across, you know, the US, but globally. So interested to hear kind of comments on what's underpinning that kind of end market demand. And that's on the volume piece. And then on the pricing side, could you maybe just talk us through some of the pricing dynamics in that division and expectations into Q4? I know there was some tariff kind of costs that you might have to pass through at some point. Should we expect that in Q4? Thanks.
Yeah, good morning, Patrick. How are you? I speak to kind of overall volumes and Mark will speak to price. I think we probably were being a little bit cash cautious. You know, we were still coming through significant tariff turbulence, I suppose is the best way to put it. So we weren't quite clear on the impact, particularly between China and the U.S., Pleasing to see good growth across all of our end-use markets, but particularly in our international markets, as we've called out. And I think what you're seeing here is, you know, this is a smaller part of our overall portfolio, but we're leveraging a broader B2B base and benefiting from the trends that we see in performance nutrition overall. So very happy with quarter three performance in Asia now.
Yeah, and the pricing dynamic, Patrick, is... You know, there are some tariff impacts, but there's also some commodity pass-through impacts as well. So to the extent that certain prices of material come back, we will actually pass those through. So that tends to be how that flows through in the pricing. I think for the fourth quarter, we're expecting the pricing negativity to be a bit better, as we saw in the third quarter. So overall, for the year, probably less than 1% negative on price, I would say, for the year. reasonably good quarter as well on the volume side, and that's why we say we're tracking towards the upper end of our mid-singletary range now. Please see that as we come to the end of the year.
Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of David Rue from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead, David.
Good morning, Tim. Just a couple from my side. Mark, so just to clarify on your comments around weigh costs. So as you mentioned, Q1, you had indicated your sort of covered weigh costs were sort of flat versus last year. Can you just confirm your comments on on how that looks for prices covered to H1. Did you say that was higher versus last year overall? And then, sorry, just my second question on optimum nutrition. The implied guidance for on like-for-like for performance nutrition into Q4 implies it's quite a marked slowdown. Could you maybe just comment on how optimum nutrition has performed over basically the first part of Q4 and has it kind of seen a marked slowdown from Q3 as implied by your performance nutrition guidance? Thanks very much.
On the way costs, David, so as I said at the last call, we had procured to the first quarter, and those costs were in line with the second half of 2025. As we procured into the second quarter, way costs went up a little bit. So when you look at the first For 26, they are marginally ahead of the second half of 25. So a little bit higher, and that's why it's a pricing that's important dynamic for us into next year as well.
Yeah, maybe just as well, David, you know, I think when we spoke to you in August, we would have actually seen way come off its peak. What we've seen is we went into September, specifically after October, we saw prices increase again, all driven by demand. demand is very strong. You can see that from our own numbers as well. You know, we haven't changed our view on the additional supply coming on stream next year. In fact, we're starting to see that come in now. But demand is very strong. So as Mark said, pricing is done this year. We are now starting to evaluate pricing for kind of late spring, early summer next year as well. But overall, fundamentally, it's all driven by strong demand. In terms of the second question, I don't know when, probably a little bit of conservatism. Consumption remains strong in answer to your specific question. We're happy with consumption as we go into quarter four. you always have, you know, we ship to a lot of markets all over the world and we always have a little bit of inventory movement as we go into the back end of the year and get ready for New Year's.
Okay, thanks, Jensen. So just to follow up on the way costs, so the covered position through 1H of next year, would that be inflationary or deflationary versus the prior year?
It would be inflationary.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Nicola Tang from BMP Paribas Exxon. Please go ahead, Nicola.
Hi, everyone. Thanks for taking the questions. First, maybe just to come back on the H&M business again. You talked about this broad-based strength across end markets. Could you give a little bit more color on that? Are you outperforming your end markets or are you just exposed to end markets which are growing particularly well? And the second question is, congrats on all the non-core divestments that you managed to close in Q3. I remember when you announced those non-core divestments, the wording was quite open with respect to continuing broader portfolio assessment and you continue to look at potential further divestments. Do you see scope for further non-core divestments in the near future? Thanks a lot.
Good morning, Nicola. Yeah, I think what I say, I think you answered it. We're doing well in the end markets that we supply into vitamin and minerals, vitamin and minerals function on beverage and active lifestyle nutrition. So quite similar to our consumer goods business as well. So we're seeing a lot of those similar trends. I think I said it earlier on as well. We're leveraging our broad-based B2B customer base right now, particularly with our flavor acquisition. We have a natural and organic liquid flavor business. We're building our natural and organic powder flavor business as well. That's very much on trend also. And then we're also leveraging our broader protein capability through dairy nutrition as well, where we're doing a lot of flavor and fortification work combined with protein. So overall, you know, from good trends we see across the broader Columbia group. I think, look, what I'd say is in non-core investments, we always keep that under review. We're very much focused on driving our priority growth rounds within PN. We have a nice portfolio as well, but, you know, decisions will all be made in terms of priority investments, and we'll give a little bit more color on our growth drivers as Thank you.
Thank you.
As a reminder, before we move to our next question, please press star 1 and 1 now if you wish to ask a question. We will now take our next question. question from the line of Damian McNeill from Deutsche Tunis. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thank you. Good morning, everybody. Two questions for me, please. Firstly, to more colour on the US category growth. I think you pointed to both protein and creatine as being good components of the growth, but can you talk about whether it's split or weighted to one versus the other? there please and then just um i think at the time of the interims you talked about um longer-term discussions about incremental way coming to the market beyond 26 uh so 27 28 is there any sort of update that you can provide on on those conversations um given the sort of continued demand for for way that we see coming through from the us please
What I'd say is both categories are growing very strongly, both producing and creating, and not just in the U.S. I think we're seeing that globally as well. So we've very strong growth for optimal nutrition creating, and we have a multitude of products across that portfolio now as well, with new flavors and new formats being launched. And we're seeing good growth in protein. And what I can say is that we've clearly seen the ready-to-mix powder protein accelerate in the U.S. over the course of 2025. And we're benefiting from that. We manufacture the largest brand. We manufacture the highest quality. All our manufacturing is in-house. We clean the ingredients. And powders are versatile. And look, I have no direct data that would say that consumers are switching or moving across formats, let's say. I wouldn't conclude that. But we do have a lowest cost reserve. I think we spoke to you before about making sure that we had the right price pack architecture, the right price point. An example, one of our online customers was seeing very strong demand for the smaller price points, and particularly for new customers, over 80% of customers buying that size of off-the-nutrition are new to our brand, which is really interesting for us. So overall, I think generally, we're in good demand spaces. In terms of incrementally, we have actually, we have approved capacity for one of our own facilities in the US where we would put in an additional capacity for whey protein iso for 2027. And one of our local partners here in Europe actually will be announcing additional capacity actually next week as well. So we're working across 26, 27 and into 28 because these investments take time to plan for time to build. But certainly all of our suppliers are interested in putting in more capacity.
That's great. Thanks so much.
Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Carol Zoot from Capitalist Review. Please go ahead.
Yes. Good morning, all. Thanks for taking the question. I have a question with regards to channel dynamics in the U.S., because It's been, of course, some discussions about the club channel last year and then the contract was lost. What are you seeing across US channels and within a club, is private labels still gaining share? Yeah, thank you.
Yeah, I think we've called it out specifically. Actually, for our brands, where we're seeing the greatest growth right now is across food, drug, mass, and e-commerce channels. Very, very strong double-digit growth across both. Club channel continues to be very important. We've had some nice wins across. There's a number of customers within the club channel, so we've had some nice wins. in that broader club channel base, and within the private label, the impact on our business from private label that we spoke about earlier, that has stabilized now, and we're happy with our end performance.
All right, thank you.
Thank you. Once again, to ask a question, please press star one and one on your telephone keypad. The next question comes from the line of Cole Holcany from TV. Please go ahead.
Thanks for taking my questions. Firstly, back to the category growth. What's your best guess? for the powders category growth in North America. That's my first question. Second question, then, is isopure, obviously a very strong Q3, backing up a very good volume growth in Q2. Can you dial into some of the drivers of that? I know you gave some headline commentary on velocity distribution, but I'd be interested in leaning into the isopure performance a little bit more. There are my two questions. Thank you.
Yeah, it's hard to call. Good morning. It's hard to call. We don't get data for some of the channels in the U.S., so it's hard to call overall growth. But what we've certainly seen in food, drug, mass channels where we do get data, we have seen growth accelerate from flat to low single digit now to the teens. low T, so good category growth overall, and which ON and ICP are outperforming that category growth. We see good growth within our e-commerce channels as well, so demand generally for powders has certainly accelerated in the US over the course of 2025. Now, how long that will continue, that's always hard to call, but certainly the demand currently is good, and we don't see any signs that that demand will come off as we head into In terms of isopure, probably, you know, velocity for ON certainly is the key. Also, a little bit of distribution, a little bit of innovation. For isopure, it's primarily, it will be significantly more distributional, coming off a much lower distribution basis. much lower household penetration numbers as well. So significant growth in household penetration and points of distribution. But also some nice new innovation as well that we're launching. So for all, for both our priority go brands, it's strong velocity, some nice new distribution wins and nice innovation coming into the category.
Thank you. Just a quick follow-up on the pricing point. Are you saying that you expect lower levels of elasticity around this price increase you're now taking in North America?
Yeah, I think what we traditionally said, Carl, is we sometimes talk about elasticity of one. It tends to come out around 0.8 from prior experiences, but that doesn't last that long because Normally, it's once the entire, we're the first to move on price. And the cash flow will tend to react. We saw that earlier on in the year in international. The volume growth is back now. I think demand is so strong at the moment. this pricing is well expected, and I think generally for consumers, it's an inflationary environment in the U.S., but also these, as we said before, our consumer demand is strong, they're highly engaged in the category, the consumer demand tends to be resilient, and we're in a great format in terms of cost per serve, so it's it's a hard one to call. We're also coming into New Year and New You, so while you won't have much of a promo effect between now and the end of the year, quarter one is obviously a big promotional calendar period for the entire industry. So by the time everything settles, you're kind of coming out into quarter two next year. So at this stage, we're not actually expecting significantly.
That's very clear. Thank you.
Thank you. I'm ensuring no further questions. Thank you all very much for your questions. I'll now turn the conference back to the CEO, Mr. Hugh McGuire, for his closing comments.
Thank you very much. Look, just to close, very pleased with the strong performance in the third quarter. You know, Glanvier remains well positioned for growth. We're moving at a pace to deliver on our strategic ambition, and I look forward to speaking November. Thank you.