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Allwyn Ag
6/4/2026
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. I am Geli, your course call operator. Welcome and thank you for joining the ONAG Investor Conference call and live webcast to present and discuss the first quarter 2026 preliminary results. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Robert Fatal, CEO. Mr. Fatal, you may now proceed.
Thank you very much, and good morning or good afternoon, everyone, and congratulations Welcome to Allwinds Q1 2026 earnings call. I'm particularly proud to present this quarter to you, not only because of the strong momentum and exciting developments in the quarter, but also because this is the first set of results post the combination of OPAP and Allwinds. And this is obviously a real milestone that positions the group as as differentiated, scaled and diversified listed gaming company. So in today's slides, I'll be walking you through key business developments. I will relate them to our strategy and then we'll hand over to Kent for some more detail on our numbers and financial topics. So let's get started with key Q1 headline. as a strong start into 2026, so stay tuned. Q1 was a very strong start to the year with great progress both strategically and financially. Financially, net revenues was up 21% year-on-year. Adjusted EBITDA increased 24%, and adjusted EBITDA minus CapEx, free cash flow, was up 30%. And it was driven by strong underlying performance and the acquisition of price peaks in mid-January. So that strong cash generation is a key feature of our financial profile and supports, obviously, our high capital returns. We paid 80 cents a share in May. We have announced a 150 million euro buyback today, and we expect an interim dividend of 20 cents today. in the second half of 2026. We also continued to execute our strategy, which is proven during this quarter and cross the markets. And the pictures are headlining key achievements in this quarter and come back to some of them later. So overall, a strong start, numbers speak for themselves. Next slide, headlines. consistency and delivery of our strategy, which we have been executing for many, many years. It is based on the pillars of organic growth, of M&A-driven inorganic growth, on operational efficiency, and also CSR or commitment to sustainable growth, thanks to the trust and This basically has to highlight the trust and responsible gaming, which is very important in the gaming business, serving tens of millions of players and consumers every year. And this is the strategy that has delivered one of the fastest growth rates in gaming. So for the context, we highlight some examples of how this translates into tangible delivery across key priorities. both in the quarter and over the long term. For example, the Q1 saw a 23% online GGR growth, and this is a short-term highlight. But if you look longer term, continental Europe, net revenue growth since 2019 was 12% compounded. So all in all, started to focus, and this is another important message, to start to focus very attentively on three key enablers that the group develops, namely one brand. You will see we already started rebranding in Greece and Czech Republic. And Allwin will build not only B2B operator brand, but going forward also B2C brand. consumer brand. Number two, one tech. We will develop and deploy more of our own tech stack in lottery space. We can see clear benefits of having such capability in Betano and PricePix case. And last but not least, one team is the last enabler where a strong single culture is of course key to delivering our ambitious goals. So moving to the next slide that takes us nicely to the message where we break down for you how the strategy, its key deliverables, play out across all four market segments, namely continental Europe, UK, North America, and Betano. I will highlight some of them in more detail, but at this point, I'm proud to say that combination of, on the one hand, consistent delivery, and on the other, diversification is a really, really important differentiator for Orlin. On the next slide, let me be a bit specific. I mentioned one brand enabler, and here's the concrete proof. We had a successful go-live in January in the Czech Republic, Greece, and Cyprus, and we have been very, very pleased by the consumer reception in the markets we've been rebranding. The adoption of the new global brand was very, very positive. And that is also reflected in the strong financial performance, by the way, in these markets. As a quick reminder, the rationale for our global brand is threefold. First, it is to transform visibility of the Olwen brand and to support our international profile and growth. Secondly, It is to ensure that we remain relevant and exciting to the next generation. This is very important. And thirdly, to optimize marketing costs and capture synergies across markets. So there are only a few gaming operators with a strong global B2C brand. A great example is, of course, Betano, whose single brand has been one of the key drivers of its very strong growth and profitability. On slide nine, let me briefly recap the price picks acquisition, which completed in January 2026. This has brought a technology-led innovative leader in daily fantasy sports in the US into the group. And it's very important to remind that part of our broader ambition to become the world's leading gaming entertainment company is to combine high-quality lottery-led operations with complementary high-growth platforms. And PricePix has a great team, great product, and a great brand, and is front and center in fast-growing and opportunity-rich markets. And that includes, moving to the next slide, prediction markets. The message of this slide is, number one, prediction markets materially expand addressable market and engagement, so far driving incremental growth without cannibalization. And secondly, price picks are well positioned to succeed, given large and engaged player base they have, own tech they control, and also passionate and flexible team who's there to win. And therefore, it came quick and natural for them to come up with blended experience combining team pick with player picks in a lineup, in a parlay. So let me expand on this. While DFS, Daily Fantasy Sports, is still the majority of the business, prediction markets are a major opportunity to bring more ways for our players to engage with the content industry. They laugh. So prediction markets expand price picks addressable market in multiple ways. Firstly, they include match outcomes, event outcomes beyond the traditional DFS model for player stats. Secondly, they broaden the range of sports and categories available. For example, college basketball, which is huge in the US, but has not been a big sport for PricePix historically, unlike the NBA. And thirdly, they enable the enhancement of the DFS product. So each of these can expand both the number of the users and engagement per user. And PricePix is in a great place to capture this opportunity. So PricePix already has a very large and highly engaged player community. And as I mentioned, it is a joy to see the passionate team craving to deliver PricePix out customers a great experience. And that is what allowed PricePix to go from challenger to leader in the FS. And turning to product on the right-hand side, we have been moving fast and just last Friday launched a blended experience that allows a team pick to be combined with a DFS player pick lineup, so it becomes a seamless user journey between DFS and predictions. So far, for players active in both DFS and predictions, we see no sign of cannibalization and instead see that the DFS activity of these players is actually increasing. Moreover, we are actually continuing to iterate and innovate offering and we have some additional features planned for the start of the American football season in September. Now to the UK on the next slide. UK reached a triple inflection point in the beginning of this year. we have completed the tech transition, one of the largest transitions in lottery history. So CAPEX has now stepped right down and the OPEX related to the transition is complete. Secondly, we start recovery of the significant majority of those costs under the license mechanism. And last but not least, With our new tech, we are able to begin to launch major commercial initiatives. And on that note, this month we will launch an enhanced format for the domestic jackpot game, Lotto, with two draws in a day and thus two chances to win, which is a big change in the UK. And then front and center on the slide, we are bringing the UK into Powerball. This is the world's biggest jackpot game and the first launch of a US multi-state jackpot game outside the US. And we are obviously proud that it is Allwin delivering it, demonstrating our leadership in global lottery. Powerball is literally a different order of magnitude to the games that we currently offer in Europe. So a great customer acquisition tool as well as a major game in its own right. Now turning to the next slide, this is just an important reminder for you of our ongoing commitment to responsible gaming and CSR. Our initiatives in this space are not only the right thing to do, but they reinforce the social license of our business, which is essential for sustainable growth in the long term. to have the trust with both consumers and the regulators. Turning to the next slide, slide 13, I will finish by briefly summarizing the highlights of the combined listed business following the recent completion of the transaction with OPAP. At a high level, you can think of the Erwin platform in two very complementary paths. The first is a unique lottery portfolio supported by sports betting and iGaming operations in European markets. This is a high-quality, cash-generative set of assets with market-leading positions. And it represents 70% of EBITDA. And this obviously provides a very sustainable, compounding, like a consumer staple-like growth. as well as strong cash generation. And for those of you who follow Adopop, these businesses are somewhat similar, though the total addressable market and the growth potential is now much greater. And secondly, we have a complementary market-leading high-growth assets. This includes price picks and our stake in Betano. These are among the most exciting assets in gaming globally and represent 30% of EBITDA. And they are fast-growing businesses which enhance our growth profile significantly. And we then have our own content. A good example is IWG, which is the market-leading proposition company in the US, for example, of e-scratch cards, the digital scratch cards. We have our own tech and own brand, and these are key differentiators and enablers of growth and competitive advantage across Allwin. That makes Allwin unique. And to be more explicit on what makes Allwin unique, I want to lay out what sets us clearly apart and why we believe the platform is structurally advantaged. So we have global scale. We are in continental Europe, UK, Latin America, North America. We have exposure to lottery, supporting really solid growth trends, but they are stable, predictable, and with broadest installed base. as lotteries have always the broadest installed base among the gaming world. And this is always a great base to cross up. We have leading market positions across multiple geographies and businesses, which also gives us the benefit of diversification and optionality for growth. And we already have very high cash generation. So together, these factors underpin a combination of growth and cash returns that is really differentiated and is core to our investment proposition. So we look forward to delivering this proposition moving forward and are delighted to have got off to a strong start in Q1 2026. And with that, I will hand over to Ken to talk through our numbers in more detail.
Thank you very much, Robert, and hello to everybody on the call. I'm going to start with our financial performance in Q1, then I'm going to cover current trading and the outlook, and then we'll wrap up and move to Q&A. As always, we've tried to provide the information that our investors and analysts need in a clear and convenient way. So we've included some slides in the appendix with some additional detail, in particular for the benefit of our debt investors. I'd also like to draw your attention to our financial data book, which is intended to make it easy to work through our numbers and also to build a model. As usual, we've published a new version of that on our website today. Before I start, just one point of context. Most of the financial information that we're going to be talking through today is presented on a look-through basis. That's a non-IFRS basis, which reflects the underlying performance of the enlarged group. Data on that basis does differ from the reported IFRS statements following the combination in March. Those IFRS statements will be published on our website next week. So now moving to slide 16, where we have a summary of what that strong start that Robert was talking through translated into in terms of financial performance in our P&L. Net revenue increased by 21% year-on-year to £1.2 billion. Adjusted EBITDA increased by 24% year-on-year to $443 million. Now margin was up to 37% of net revenue. There are a couple of moving parts impacting comparability that I would mention now. Primarily, of course, the first-time consolidation of price picks from the 16th of January. And there are a few others which I'll talk through on subsequent slides. On an underlying basis, adjusting for those factors, Net revenue was up 5% year-on-year, and I'd also highlight strong performance in the digital channel in continental Europe as key drivers of that performance. On that same underlying basis, adjusted EBITDA growth was strong, up 11% year-on-year. That reflects another quarter of very strong top-line and also profitability growth at Bitano, as well as the positive net revenue dynamic that I just mentioned. Finally, on leverage, net debt to adjusted EBITDA was 2.8 times at the end of the quarter. We remain committed to our 2.5 times target. Now on slide 17, we have a bridge for the development of adjusted EBITDA year on year to explain the underlying performance in Q1. Key takeaway here is that underlying EBITDA growth was 11% before the acquisition of price picks, sorry, before the impact of the consolidation of price picks during the quarter. And I'd mentioned that that is against a relatively strong comparative period in Q1 2025, where we had record jackpots in a number of our markets. So starting from Q1 2025, adjusted EBITDA of 358 million. Higher gaming taxes in Austria were a 14 million euro headwind. We have some supplier contracts that are linked to net revenue in Austria, as in many of our markets. And the 14 million euros is net of the automatic mitigating effect that those contracts provide. We then have organic EBITDA growth of 46 million, partly offset by the 9 million effective higher license fee amortization in Italy under the new license, which began in December last year. And taken together, that gives underlying adjusted EBITDA growth of 37 million, or 11%. Slovakia was a new market that we entered in the second half of last year, incurring some minor launch costs that we also show on the chart. And then finally, price picks was consolidated from mid-January. So the consolidated reported number reflects consolidation from the 15th of January, slightly less than the full quarter's contribution, therefore. Slide 18, we've included as reference a brief summary of our segments for those who may be less familiar with Orwin. And now moving to slide 19, we've summarized performance in terms of those segments and included a buildup of the segmental performance into our aggregate metrics. Before we move on to our normal commentary on the individual segments, a few words on performance by product. We saw very strong growth in iGaming, which was up 30% year-on-year in the quarter, and also saw double-digit growth in sports betting and VLTs and casinos, which were up 12% and 11%, respectively. Performance in lottery reflects the all-time record high jackpots that I mentioned earlier. There were record jackpots in EuroMillions, which is the international game that we offer in the UK and Austria, and also in Joker, which is the national game in Australia. Eastern Cyprus. So bearing in mind that difficult comparative, we're very pleased with the performance of our lottery products in Q1 this year. And of course, as Robert mentioned, we've got some really, really exciting product launches to come, particularly in the UK with the revitalization of Lotto and the launch of Powerball. Now turning to slide 20, where we recap the current splits and diversification of our business across across geography, across product, across channel, and across type of license. That high degree of diversification is, of course, a real benefit in gaming with our operations under a large number of licenses and fiscal and regulatory regimes. From the financial perspective, it also helps to smooth volatility in our individual businesses and products between quarters, whether that's caused by sports betting margins or jackpots or FX. And you can see that in the revenue performance that I commented on on the previous slide. And strategically, of course, it provides us with a great deal of optionality. Having expertise across verticals and geographies is really pretty differentiated within gaming, and it's been a key contributor to the success of our M&A strategy over a long period. So now moving to slide 21, we begin with a strong start to the year in continental Europe, which is, of course, particularly pleasing as this is our largest business. We delivered good top-line growth with net revenue up 5% year-on-year, led by the digital channel and strong year-on-year growth across our product, with the exception of Lottery, where I commented already on headwinds from large jackpots in the comparative period. Including the impact of higher gaming tax rates in Austria, underlying net revenue growth was actually 7%, despite that strong comp again. The bridge on the bottom left of the slide illustrates the impact of the main moving parts, which I discussed earlier on the aggregate waterfall on the continental Europe results, which is where all these factors came to bear. So you can see that on an underlying basis adjusted for those factors, EBITDA increased by 8% year on year. Moving now to slide 22, we show results for our North America business here on what we describe as a 100% basis. So that's including price picks for all of Q1 in 2026 and also for Q1 2025 for comparability. On that basis, net revenue increased by 5% year on year in US dollar terms with our reported performance in euros reflecting an FX headwind as a result of a weaker dollar against the Euro year-on-year. In terms of price picks, we saw strong performance in the first couple of months of the year with growth in the low teens, with the eventual outturn for the quarter also reflecting customer-friendly outcomes in March. With that, we saw the contribution of prediction markets increase sequentially across the quarter despite a relatively early-stage product offering that, as Robert mentioned, is continuing to evolve rapidly. At the adjusted EBITDA level, we saw a decrease of 5% year-on-year, which mainly reflects those currency headwinds that I already mentioned. Finally, in North America, we have one exciting recent update from Illinois. Legislation which would allow a three-year extension of the current private management agreement under which we operate the Illinois Lottery has passed both legislative chambers in Illinois and is currently awaiting the governor's signature. Commercial terms for that extension remain to be negotiated. Illinois has been one of the best performing lotteries in the US in recent years in terms of draw-based games and instance and also in terms of the digital channel. And we think that we've done an absolutely great job of running this business and we'd be very pleased to continue to deliver for the state and the people of Illinois. We'll keep you up to date with developments as they occur. Turning now to slide 23, we come to the UK. The UK has been our only cash flow negative business over the past two years as we've invested significant amounts in transition at the start of the new license. We've spent approximately £450 million in total. Now that the transaction transition, apologies, is finished, we're positioned for a triple inflection in terms of our financial metrics, as Robert mentioned. in terms of revenue driven by product initiatives, in terms of profitability as we begin to recover transition costs, and also in terms of capex. Looking at the numbers for Q1, net revenue increased by 7% year-on-year on a local currency basis, although as we've also called out on the slide, GGR was lower year-on-year in the first quarter. That performance reflects a strong comparative in which there was a record high Euro millions jackpot and also some short-term effects related to the digital re-platforming in the quarter, which we'd expect to continue to run into the second quarter to some extent. Now on slide 24 and moving on to Botano, which continues to go from strength to strength, as you can see there, looking at the revenue growth on the top right chart. Total revenue was up 27% year on year, strong performance even by Bitano standards with growth even stronger on a constant currency basis at 31%. Our share of net income increased at 43% year on year to 60 million. I'd also note that Bitano is not only growing very quickly, but also highly cash flow generative even after 2021. significant investment in growth. This has enabled a substantial increase of dividend payments over the last several quarters and we saw a continuation of that trend in Q1, with Pitano paying 200 million of dividends compared to no dividend in Q1 last year. Now turning to slide 25, we provide some detail on a few cash flow items I'd like to use this opportunity to emphasise two points. First of all, ongoing CapEx requirements across the group are low, typically a few percent of net revenue on a run rate basis. Over the last couple of years, of course, CapEx levels in aggregate have been above that level because of our investment in the UK transition, but that is now done. You can see a step down already beginning in Q1 2026. Secondly, our EBITDA adjustments have also been higher in recent quarters than we'd expect over the medium term and higher than they have historically been as well. That reflects, first of all, transition costs associated with the combination of all-win and OPAP and the price-picks acquisition in the quarter. Clearly, those are landmark transactions and not part of our normal cost structure. Secondly, of course, we've been expensing a portion of our UK transition costs under IFRS. Thirdly, Q1, you see a step down already in some non-cash acquisition accounting relating to the acquisition of IWG. We expect those amounts to be minimal after the payment of an earn-out to IWG this quarter. And finally, you see investment in our all-win brand initiative, which, as Robert mentioned, we kicked off in terms of the B2C proposition during the quarter. So similarly to the position with CapEx, I hope you can see that several of those items will be stepping down or not present in future quarters. Now on page 26, a few words on our capital structure. As you can see, looking at the top left chart, we've got a smooth and long dated maturity profile with no material maturities until 29. And we have a very diversified access to key capital markets in terms of instruments and in terms of currency. You can see looking at the top right chart. And that allows us to access markets opportunistically to achieve an attractive cost of funds. During the quarter, we issued 550 million euros of bonds at 4 and 5 eighths in a transaction that I'm pleased to say was very well received by the market. We also saw good ratings momentum in the quarter with Fitch upgrading our issuer rating by one notch and our instrument rating by two, and S&P upgrading their outlook. At the bottom of the page, you can see our leverage going back over the last six years. You can see that Our leverage during that period has been conservative, and also you can see how rapidly the business deleverages naturally because of our high cash flow generation. As a reminder, during the period that we show on the chart, we made some very significant investments in organic growth and paid substantial shareholder dividends while maintaining a conservative level of leverage significantly inside our leverage target. for most of that period. Now on slide 27, a few words on capital allocation. We continue, of course, to target a minimum annual cash distribution of one euro per share. And in connection with that, having paid already 80 cents this year, we expect to pay further 20 cents per share interim distribution in the second half of the year. And today we've announced a share buyback of up to 150 million on market. The buyback reflects, of course, our confidence in the outlook and our commitment to cash returns to shareholders. It also reflects somewhat lower than previously expected M&A spend following our withdrawal from the NoviBet transaction. And assessing capital allocation in light of those factors, we see our own shares as an attractive option at current levels. KTCG will not be participating in the buyback given their high level of confidence in the long term of value, value of all and especially the current valuation. So overall message on capital allocation is unchanged. In fact, probably reinforced by our announcement of the buyback. We're focused on disciplined capital allocation, balancing investment in value accretive growth and also material value. capital returns to shareholders. With that, we move to the final section and current trading on slide 29. I'll be brief in terms of the trading update. Since the start of the year, trading has been in line with our expectations overall, and the business continues to develop well. Turning to guidance, we're pleased to reaffirm our outlook for 2026 net revenue and adjusted EBITDA. And in the current macro environment, I'd just like to remind you briefly that historically our business has been very resilient even during periods of weaker consumer sentiment. That's a function of our product's low price point, low spend per customer and a very large base of regular players. And of course, we also benefit here from our very substantial diversification across geographies, across products and across channels. And now turning to slide 30, I'd like to end by putting the strong results that we delivered in Q1 in the context of our long-term financial performance. We're very proud of our track record, and this is one of my favorite slides showing some of our all-in key financial metrics going back to 2019. Net revenue, adjusted EBITDA, they're up over 3%. times during that period and adjusted EBITDA minus capex only marginally below that because of our investment in the UK with a CAGR of about 20% for each metric and as you'll notice our Q1 performance is right in line with that long-term dynamic. That combination of consistent strong growth profitability and cash flow generation and scale is quite unusual for a company in any sector and underpins our shareholder value proposition. With that, I'd like to pass back to Robert to summarize the key points that we hope you'll take away from our presentation today, and then we can move to Q&A.
Thank you. Thank you, Ken. And the last slide, I believe it's slide number 31, this is where we summarize the quarter. So, Q1 was a landmark quarter for Allwin. We had a strong delivery across the strategy and major milestones in several geographies. We delivered strong underlying performance in continental Europe, very pleasing results across the board, completed the UK tech transformation and moved into the next phase of commercial activities in the UK. We completed the price fix acquisition and continue to make great progress to capture the opportunity in prediction markets. And so another quarter of a very strong momentum at Betano. So all in all, this strategic delivery supported another quarter of strong financial performance and we remain on course to deliver our outlook for 2026. And finally, the combination to create all NAG is complete, and that creates a highly differentiated investment opportunity. And with that, we can move to Q&A.
The first question is from the line of Iakovos Kourtesis with Perio Securities. Please go ahead.
Yes, good evening, and thank you very much for the thorough presentation. I have two questions, if I may. We saw that along with the announcement of first Q results, you've also announced the start of a 150 million buyback program. If I remember correctly, OPAP had a similar program in the past, but back at this time OPAP enjoyed a much larger free float. Now, Alwin has a much smaller free float, which is likely to get even smaller with the implementation of this share buyback program. Would you have any concerns about it? How do you think about this, please? And my second point has to do with the interim dividend distribution you've announced today, the 20 cents per share that will be paid in the second half of 2026, which is good news. I thought originally you had a policy of one euro distribution as of next year, and as far as I understand, you still stick to the guidance for one euro total dividend per year. As far as I understand, now you are a Swiss company, so how much would be the withholding tax that we should expect, especially for initial orders in Greece? Will it be 35% as per Swiss companies, 5% as in Greece, or 0% as you had in the previous distribution, which effectively was treated as a capital return, if I remember correctly. Would you be kind enough to shed some light on this? Thank you very much.
Thank you. Thank you very much for the questions. I'm happy to answer those. And thank you also for the opportunity to clarify in case there's any ambiguity about any of those points. First of all, you're absolutely correct that OPAP did indeed have a share buyback program. Also, if I remember correctly, 150 million euros. That was well received by the market and that was a point of reference when we were considering our capital allocation options for this quarter. Just in terms of the free float, a couple of points. First of all, of course, we're aware that free float is very important for our investors and we're aware also of the impact that, well, the importance of free float in terms of listing rules and in terms of index inclusion and those are factors that we've absolutely considered when thinking about the buyback and we don't consider that given the relatively modest size it had any material impact in those terms. And final observation is that although OPAP's free float was larger in percentage terms, actually, in terms of absolute number of shares and in terms of value. The difference is much more minimal. Secondly, in terms of distributions later in the year, I'm very happy to confirm that we intend to pay a further 20 cents. dividend later in the year. So the one euro share minimum dividend that we've spoken to applies to calendar year 2026. And In terms of withholding tax, as part of the transaction, we created a significant amount of capital contribution reserves in the listed entity. Those can be distributed without any Swiss withholding tax being payable on those distributions.
Thank you very much. Thank you.
The next question is from the line of George Gregorio with Wood & Co. Please go ahead.
Yes, hello. Thank you. Two questions again. One, going back to the buyback. What made you choose a buyback rather than increasing, let's say, the interim dividend? That's the first question. Second is regarding your outlook. Apart from the sales and the adjusted dividend guidance you've given, At the release of the fourth quarter results of 2025, you also provided some guidance below the line for depreciation, finance costs, etc. Do these still hold after the first quarter? Or do you think that some items, some guidance needs to be changed?
Thank you. Sure. Thank you. So in terms of the decision to allocate some capital to buy back instead of additional cash distributions. A few factors that we considered here. First of all, we think that clarity in terms of the dividend policy is really, really valuable and that was an important factor when we were structuring the one euro minimum and we think that the one euro level is about as simple and transparent as it can be and slightly increasing that level would potentially introduce a little bit of noise. As I mentioned, one of the factors that we that we considered when we decided to launch the buyback was lower than expected investment in M&A, which essentially freed up a little bit of additional capital. We're also conscious that the share price at the moment offers a, we think, quite compelling acquisition potential. Sorry, value opportunity. So that was also a factor when we were considering whether to engage in a buyback or increase the cash distribution. I can't remember who said it, but there's a nice idea that sometimes your own balance sheet can be the best place to make acquisitions. And that was certainly a factor here as well. Then finally, as I mentioned before, the OPAP buyback program a couple of years ago was generally, we think, well received by investors. That was also a factor in our consideration. In terms of the guidance, when we put it out a few months ago, we provided a lot of very detailed guidance as there was no analyst coverage at that point. And as is customary for capital markets transactions, we're not planning to update every single item of those going forward. But equally, please bear in mind that it's not a large number of weeks since we've passed since we gave that guidance, so you can assume that it still applies.
Great, thank you. Thank you.
The next question is from the line of Samatis Raziotis with Europe Bank Equities. Please go ahead.
Yes, hello from my side as well. Yeah, actually, could I follow up on the On the last question, I'm just wondering because the EBITDA adjustments, i.e. operating versus just EBITDA, these adjustments almost doubled year-on-year to 107 million in Q1. And this compares with guidance for 270 for the full year. I understand that a big chunk of these adjustments One of them relates to price fix acquisitions costs. So I presume that the numbers will be lower as the year progresses. But I'm just wondering if you could clarify whether these 270 million is still realistic or whether investors should expect adjustments to exceed these previously communicated targets. So that's the first question. actually, could you disclose the actual reported net profit for Q1 after minorities and all these non-recurring items? I don't think this was included in either the press release or the data book, please. Thank you.
Yeah, okay. Thank you so much for the questions. In terms of As you actually correctly point out, a significant proportion of the adjustments to our EBITDA are in Q1 related to, I think, what we described in the table on 25 as transaction costs, which is a combination of costs related to price mix acquisition and costs related to the combination with OPAP. Obviously, these were both big transactions. either of them would be the largest transaction that we've done previously, certainly in terms of fees incurred. So there may be some small additional amounts payable in Q2, but this is absolutely not part of our cost structure on an ongoing basis. If you compare Q1 2026 with Q1 2025, the increase was almost entirely accounted for by those transition costs. So in general, we think that the guidance on EBITDA adjustments absolutely still makes sense. Then in terms of the question about net profit, as I mentioned previously, we will be publishing our IFRS financials next week. The financials for Q1 are probably of limited analytical relevance, given that the combination only took place at the end of the period. We haven't, and there will obviously be a significant impact from IFRS accounting for the acquisition, which will introduce significant non-operating items into the reported net income. So as has been the case historically, we do plan to publish an adjusted net income number stripping out the impact of that acquisition accounting which is absolutely market standard and gives a better view of the underlying performance of of the business. Obviously we're, we're very happy to, um, help any, uh, talk through any specific questions on, on, um, on the AFRS three acquisition accounting, uh, when we publish those numbers.
Um, that's great. And can I, can I also ask a question on, uh, on the cash flow front? Uh, if you could summarize the, uh, the main cash outlays, uh, scheduled for, uh, for the second quarter and their aggregate amount. I'm basically referring to inorganic M&A cash distribution. So half a billion is for Italy and Hellenic lotteries. Let's put these together. There's 1.1 billion for shareholder-related cash distributions, right? So the dividend and the cash exits. uh is there anything i'm missing any uh for example any residual cash considerations still to be paid for price peaks um if you could uh uh comment on that please thank you sure yeah yeah sure so um yeah there is actually a slide in the appendix uh slide 37 which summarizes the the key items that have been paid um in the quarter uh so
As you know, we paid 80 cents per share dividend during Q2. Obviously pleased the significant proportion of the free flow elected to receive that script, but still a pretty substantial outflow. Then the final payment for the Lotto Italia license was made in April this year as well. That was total of 470 million euros. And we paid 456 million to shareholders who exercised their cash exit right. Hellenic Lottery's 80 million, as you mentioned correctly. We will see the start of the buyback program, obviously, in the last month of the second quarter as well. So those are the key items. They're all exactly as reflected in our previous guidance, of course. And it's worth mentioning that in the rest of the year, we don't have any similar items expected. In terms of price picks, no further items expected. As you know, there is an earn-out payable potentially in 2029 if the business performs well. Very well. We've got the details of that earn out on page, I think it's page nine of the presentation. And there, as previously disclosed, the earn out only becomes payable in a scenario where the business performs really, really well in that scenario. obviously would be experiencing very significant cash inflows from that business, which would essentially fund the earner and would be very pleased to be in a position where the business has performed that well. So please don't assume that this is just a cash out item in 2029 without assuming that the business has been performing very, very strongly in order to trigger that actual payment.
Makes sense. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
The next question is from the line of Karan Puri with JP Morgan. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you so much for taking my questions. I've got two, one on Betano and one on price specs. On Betano, I mean, the performance is quite strong, 31% XFX growth. You mentioned that it benefited from customer-friendly sports results. In H2, I'm wondering if you could share a bit more in terms of what other initiatives is driving the performance. Was there any new market entry during the period by any chance? The second one is on price picks. I think the implied organic growth was something like mid-single-age percentage. I know you flagged customer-friendly sports results in the month of March. From what we understand, what we actually understood was that DFS's essentially follows a commission-based model where you apply a take rate on the entry fees. Correct me if I'm wrong, but is that the model number one? And if that is the model, then how does unfavorable sports results have an impact on DFS, please? Yeah, that's it from my end. Thank you.
Sure.
Go ahead with the bet down, or we can comment and price picks together. Yeah.
Sure, thank you. So the Bitano performance in Q1 is from markets which Bitano was already present in prior to that. Bitano over the last several years has entered a lot of new markets. Actually, there was a great stat that George, the CEO of the business, shared a few weeks ago, the last time that Bitano sponsored the the world cup they were present in three markets where whose teams were also participating in the world cup this year they're present if i'm not mistaken in 11 markets so that gives you an indication of the of the expansion geographically of that business over time but currently there are great growth opportunities in Batano's current markets, obviously, including in particular Brazil, but, um, other markets as well. So Q, Q1 performance is, is, is within the, a comparable perimeter to the, to the previous year. Obviously excited about the, uh, opportunities around the world cup in, uh, in, in Batano in particular, as well as, as well as our other sports betting businesses. Um, so, um, In terms of the price picks business, there are some fixed elements of the player of the game. So there are certainly scenarios where the outcome of the individual athlete's performance or now also the individual team's performance can result in an increase or decrease in hold rate, which is effectively analogous to a sports betting margin. It's not a fixed commission model just to avoid any ambiguity. It's a peer-to-peer model. where there is some exposure to price picks. Price picks has some exposure to the outcome of the game. We're very happy to talk through the game mechanics in more detail, if that would be helpful.
Yeah, perfect. Thank you. If I can add to this still, the prediction markets for price picks has to be viewed as a new, a creative, edited extension. And what price picks teams did very quickly, I believe it was last November, they were the first one that included the prediction markets possibility optionality. called Price Predict within one app. Then the others followed after that. So there was a key message of one app and one wallet. And I think I mentioned that, you know, what we tried to do is parlay or combine the core business of Daily Fantasy Sports with with possibilities of prediction markets, which is the bets on the teams, into one parlay. And that makes it also more appealing for the consumers and pretty much delivering on what I mentioned, and that is it's the accretion rather than replacement or cannibalization of the business. So I think it's very important to note.
Thank you so much.
The next question is from the line of Ricardo Chincila with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Hey, thank you so much for taking my questions. A lot of my questions have already been asked, but if I may, I had two questions. The first one would be, you know, following the completion of the UK tax transformation and the summer 2026 Powerball launch, how should we assess the potential revenue and EBITDA contributions from this segment are going forward how should we think about you know the potential here and my second question beyond the illinois lottery potential three-year extensions are there any other north american market opportunities or legislative developments that could materially impact revenue or the competitive positioning of the company in the near term thank you
Okay, so let me try to, Ken, feel free to also add if you feel it needs to be added. On the UK, we've been working on the transition a bit longer than we wanted, admittedly, but it has one important benefit. We have absolutely new technology platform, both in retail as well as digitally. And that enables us to launch both major lotto enhancements, which is still the biggest game in the UK, as well as the introduction of the Powerball. When it comes to how exactly this will add to the top line of the UK business, I don't think that we want to disclose, but we assumed a reasonable level of reshuffling in our portfolio, meaning that there will be a certain portion for Lotto, there will be a certain portion for EuroMillions, and there will be a certain portion for Powerball. But obviously, the end result is that we will grow top line. This is the year where the UK business should start delivering on the top line growth. We believe the UK market, if you compare the average lottery product spent per capita, is lagging behind Italy or even France. So there is potential. And that's the expectations from 2026 in the UK. We want to grow more than what was the case in 2025, simply because the business was focusing on the transition. When it comes to North America, maybe I start by saying we announced... a new CEO of our All in North America business, I think yesterday with Khalid Jones, who was the lottery director in Virginia and experienced also as a regulator, which we believe is important in the space of North American lotteries. And we believe that by sealing now this extension for three more years in Illinois within the private management agreement, We made no secret as Allwin that we believe that Allwin is well positioned to be expanding in other U.S. states, either through the PMA model, which is most akin to what we and best what we do best in Europe, i.e. operating lottery for the state, can mention that Illinois, despite of a a tough environment for state lotteries in general, Illinois Lottery is performing as one of the best. And we believe that both PMA or delivering our technology going forward is the right, you know, answer, you know, a way to indicate that there could be more to come in the U.S. But this is not, you know, sealed in our outlook. We have to first deserve it. But the potential and opportunity is there.
Thank you so much for taking my questions.
Ricardo, I can actually maybe add a little bit more color on the financial outlook in the U.K., The biggest opportunity in the UK has always been growing ARPU and increasing penetration, which, as Robert mentioned, is significantly below what you see in other comparable European countries. So there's clearly a big opportunity there, and Powerball and Notto are the first steps towards capturing that opportunity. There's also a clear turnaround in... profitability and cash flow generation coming this year, though, under the UK license mechanism, significant proportion of the costs that we've invested in the transition are recoverable over the course of the license. As I mentioned on the call, we've invested about 450 million in the UK over the last couple of years, and a significant proportion of that will be recoverable under that mechanism. It's a regular equal payments for each period for the rest of the license. That has an immediate impact on our EBITDA and also on our cash flow generation. And then secondly, the reduced capex as we completed the transition will also have a material impact on cash flow generation in the UK. So we referred... during the presentation, to a triple inflection point in the UK, which is really a pretty nice situation to be in where you've got an inflection in revenues, inflection in profitability, and an inflection in capex coming over the next quarters.
The next question is from the line of Ronan Clark with Aberdeen. Please go ahead.
Hi there. Thank you for the presentation. A couple of questions for Ken, please. I think just to clarify a couple of things. The 2.8 leverage number, I'm just wondering the mechanics behind that. Is that a full 12-month LTM for price picks and any other consolidation impacts? And is that stated yet? Yeah. And is that based on stated yet before? But slide 37, then, we need to adjust to get to what will probably show next year or next quarter, say.
Yeah, that's correct. The number that we report is pro forma for price picks, and obviously that's the same basis that all our documentation works on as well. And the 2.8 doesn't reflect the outflows after the end of the period that we summarise on page 37. That's correct as well.
And then I just wanted to... also clarify just the chart where you show the distribution of buybacks, 27. So I guess the 583 to date, does that include the cash exit for OPAP or is that just regular dividends?
No, it doesn't. This is just a dividend. I mean, that's not strictly a distribution to shareholders. It was an element of the transaction mechanics. I don't think it's really comparable to other shareholder distributions. Sure.
So that means the full year will be somewhere around 880.
That sounds about right, I think, in that order of magnitude, yeah. The other point to note on the chart on page 2024 is that obviously as a result of the combination of Allwin and OPAP, the pretty substantial cash leakage that we used to see to speaking from the credit perspective here, to minority shareholders of OPAP is eliminated. So that's the dark blue bar on the chart, which as you can see in some years was actually significantly higher than payments out of the top code in the structure.
I was expecting to see the total outflow number this year to be lower than the the total of all win and minorities in previous years. But it doesn't look like that's the case now. It's kind of equal to 24.
I think it's worth bearing in mind the growth of the business during that period as well, right? If you think about EBITDA in 2024 is 1.5 billion. This year, obviously, it's going to be several hundred million higher than that. So if you look at the dividend payments as a proportion of EBITDA and even more so actually in terms of cash flow generation, given that we're now coming out of the period of higher investment in the UK, business is bigger and it's more cash flow generative.
Okay, that was all. Thank you very much. Thank you.
Ladies and gentlemen, there are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the conference over to management for any closing comments. Thank you.
Thank you, and thank you all for your questions. It's very important for us that you have a good visibility and clarity on where Olwen is heading and how Olwen is performing. And, you know, to close, you know, Olwen... I hope that you see the confidence in our Q1 2026 results. We are pleased with them. We are also confident about the outlook for 2026, as Olwen is focused and committed to deliver what Olwen always delivered, which is growth in the top line, growth in the bottom line, and this is thanks to its diversified nature, both on the product side and and we stay committed to execute on our strategy that brought results. So what Olin said, it typically delivered, and I hope it will be the case going forward. So thank you very much. Enjoy the rest of the day, and I look forward with my team to see you on the next opportunity.