Heineken N V S/Adr

Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us for today's live webcast. Your host will be Harold van den Broek, our CFO. Following the presentation, we will be happy to take your questions. The presentation includes forward-looking statements and expectations based on management's current views and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties, and it is possible that the actual results may differ materially. For more information, please refer to the disclaimer on the first page of this presentation. I will now turn the call over to Harold.

Thanks, Federico, and welcome, everyone. Thank you, as Federico said, for joining us today. And whilst we don't want to make it a habit to host conference calls with our quarterly results... We appreciate these are turbulent times, in which it might be helpful to give some additional context and offer the opportunity to ask some questions that may be on your mind. Our evergreen strategy, however, aims to create long-term sustainable growth and value creation, and a quarter is a short time period to assess performance against that. What might be also good to know up front is that it is not our intent in the call today is to be specific on our outlook for 2024 due to continued volatility in the world and the fact that we are in the middle of our planning process. But before I open up for questions, let me take some 10-15 minutes to give you a summary of the quarter. In the third quarter, we see a gradual improvement of our business performance, albeit somewhat slower than what we envisioned. We continue to focus on our evergreen priorities, and after having secured the pricing to compensate very high inflationary input and energy cost increases, we now see inflation-led pricing coming off its peak. Volume trends are somehow improving, somewhat improving, I should say, not somehow, somewhat improving across approximately half of our markets, with a strong performance in Mexico, Brazil, Ethiopia, and India. Similarly, in just over half of our markets, we are gaining or holding market share on a year-to-date basis. We continue to see the benefits of our productivity program coming through in our results. At the same time, we must recognize that macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions remain challenging. In our updated outlook statement for 2023 issued at the half year, we expected improvements in the APEC region and in Nigeria in the second half of 2023 relative to significant disruptions in the first half. This is only partially the case, and across various markets we observe a slowdown of consumer demand. In addition, relatively poor summer weather impacted volumes in Europe in the third quarter. All in all, whilst we left the outlook for 2023 unchanged, we have noted analyst estimates have shifted to the lower end of the range, and we are comfortable with that position. Let us now briefly look at performance for the group in the quarter and the year to date. In the third quarter, group net revenue Bayer was 8 billion, an increase of 4.5% organically. with net revenue Bayer per hectolitre increasing by 9.7%, particularly in Africa, Middle East and the European regions. This was driven by pricing actions taken earlier in the year to offset inflation, complemented by revenue and mix management initiatives, more than offsetting a beer volume decline of 4.2% organically. As we are currently providing you with essentially a top-line trading update, we do not disclose any further financial performance metrics. I do, however, want to point out that the net profit number in our press release includes the effect of exceptional items from our exit in Russia, the sale of our soft drinks business in the Netherlands, recognition of deferred tax assets in Brazil, and other effects like phasing of expenses. So please do not draw too many conclusions from this metric alone in the quarter. Looking at the first nine months, we posted an organic growth of 1.2 billion euros, or 5.8%, reaching 22.5 billion net revenue back. The net revenue per hectolitre increased by 11.6%. with underlying price mix on a constant geographic basis at 10.9%, remaining broadly in line with the weighted average inflation of our markets. The mix component remained positive, close to 1% from premiumization, as our premium portfolio outperformed in the majority of our markets. Total consolidated volume on an organic basis was down 5.2%, with the third quarter somewhat less negative at a decline of 4.8%. Half of this volume decline can be attributed to Vietnam and Nigeria. We returned to volume growth in the Americas, with strong performances in Brazil and Mexico. Asia-Pacific improved sequentially despite ongoing challenges in Vietnam, and where across the APEC markets, global economic conditions weighed on consumer demand. The Africa and Middle East region was impacted by volume declines in Nigeria and South Africa, and in Europe, volume in July and August was severely impacted by adverse weather, and trends improved in September. The translation of foreign currencies had a negative effect of 488 million euros, or minus 2.3% for the first nine months, mainly from the devaluation of currencies in Africa and partially offset by a stronger Mexican peso. Consolidation changes represented 507 million or 2.4%, mainly Distel and Namibian breweries in Africa. Now onto the next slide. And as anticipated, pricing is tapering as the inflation that pricing has been mostly implemented and commodity and energy prices have come off their recent peaks. We see a modest improvement in the beer volume trend in the third quarter, 340 basis points versus quarter two, and still held back by continued softness in APEC and Nigeria, as I just mentioned, and a below par summer in Europe. Let's now take a closer look at the regions. Let me start with Africa, Middle East, and the Eastern European regions. Net revenue Bayer grew 9.6% organically, with total consolidated volume down 8.6% and price mix on a constant geographic basis up 17.9%, driven by strong pricing to offset inflation, but also currency devaluation. Beer volume decreased organically by 10.1%, as double-digit growth in Ethiopia, Tunisia and Algeria was more than offset by declines in Nigeria and South Africa. Premium beer volume, excluding Russia, declined in line with the beer volume as a whole. In Nigeria, consumers' purchasing power continued to be under severe pressure due to inflation and the impact of structural economic reforms, like the removal of subsidies on diesel and petrol. affecting our premium portfolio disproportionately. Our leading non-alcohol malt proposition, Maltina, continued to significantly outperform the market and broadly held volume. In South Africa, we saw a decline in beer volume as we lost share in a challenging competitive environment at the time of integration of this delt. We integrated our sales teams, our ERP systems, aligned trade terms during the third quarter. So we can now move forward operating as a single entity, preparing for the key peak season in the coming months. Our non-beer portfolio grew revenue by a low single digit with an impressive performance of Savannah, Bernini and the Four Street wine. Obviously, all compared to the historical baseline of our distilled portfolio, because we've consolidated only recently. Moving on to the Americas. Net revenue Bayer grew 5.5% organically, as beer volume returned to growth in the quarter, up 2.2% organically, and price mix up 5.2%, driven by pricing across the region and continued premiumization. Mexico and Brazil led the growth, and our premium portfolio grew by a mid-single digit, led by Heineken. In Brazil, the growth was again led by Heineken, but also Amstel, as our successful portfolio and route-to-market strategy continues to bear fruit. In Mexico, we announced our plan to invest in a groundbreaking new brewery in Yucatan to propel growth, expand sustainable brewing practices, and foster community development. And we continue to see encouraging early results in distribution buildup, but also rate of sale of Heineken Silver in the USA. Now on to Asia Pacific. Whilst volume trend improved in APEC relative to the first half of the year, we continue to see demand softness given challenging microeconomic conditions. Net revenue Bayard declined 0.9% organically, whilst consolidated beer volume declined 4.6%, and price mix on a constant geographic basis increased 4%. Let me update you on the situation in Vietnam. The beer market continues to decline, we believe, by a high single digit, as per the Nielsen data we received, due to persisting economic slowdown. we are not paying that much attention to beer industry volumes because these numbers are starting to move around quite a bit so we really consciously talk about nielsen data here the slowdown is disproportionately affecting our strongholds and the premium segment as a result our volume decline at mid-teens is higher than the decline in the beer category despite this Heineken grew volume in the high teens, driven by the continued success of Heineken Silver up in the 40s, and our mainstream portfolio outperformed, with Bia Viet, Bevina and La Rue all gaining share in the segment. The APEC performance was also supported by strong results in India, up by a high single digit, despite being held back as we continue with route to market changes to create a sustainable future going forward. And finally, a word on Europe. Net revenue grew 3.9% organically, with beer volume down 7.6% and price mix up 12.1%. driven by our pricing at the start of the year and in line with inflation. Volume was significantly impacted by adverse weather during the key summer months of July and August. And again, as said, trends were improving in September. We gained or held share in the majority of our markets in the on-trade year-to-date, with more to do to recover share in the off-trade. Our premium and non-alcoholic beer and cider portfolios continue to outperform the wider portfolio in most of the markets. A brief word to discuss the Heineken brand performance in more detail. The Heineken brand continues to show great momentum and grew volumes 2.3% with double-digit growth in 28 markets. The brand saw its strongest growth in China up in the high 40s and Brazil up in the mid-teens. The growth was supported by strong performance of line extensions because Heineken 00 grew 3.5%, driven by the Americas, and Heineken Silver grew close to 40%. Again, China, Vietnam, and the launch in the US this year were the main contributing markets. Moving on to the last slide to close with the outlook for the year. At the half-year results presentation, I shared several shifts that we expected in the second half of 2023. Let me now revisit some of these themes and apply them to the current context. We expected pricing to moderate, with volume trends to gradually improve to a low single-digit decline, which we are starting to see happen, but more slowly than what we envisioned. This is partially because we are not yet experiencing an improvement in the external environment in Vietnam, nor Nigeria, and some other factors that I've highlighted in this call. We expect a further improvement in volume trends in the balance of the year. However, we still expect negative volume growth to persist. Consequently, we are bringing investments in line with our revised growth ambitions still seeking to continue to invest behind our strategic priorities. And we do experience lower pressure from inflation and remain firmly on track with our productivity savings to land well ahead of the initial 2 billion gross savings target. That fact has not changed since our mid-year update. Overall, our expectations for the full year of 2023 remains at a stable to mid single-digit operating Bayer growth organically. As said earlier, we see the upper end of the range as less likely and expect to be closer to the lower end of the range, provided there are no unforeseen events. Looking ahead to 2024, the unprecedented commodity and energy cost inflation in recent years will be partially reversed next year, with some easing already benefiting 2023 and easing the pressure on pricing. So we're adjusting pricing compared to relative input cost that we see coming through in the second half of this year. We're currently seeing variable cost of goods sold, including the energy coming down in Europe and the Americas in 2024, Yet there will be continued inflationary pressures in Africa and Middle East. We will also continue with the structural changes under Evergreen to set us up for a more balanced growth in 2024 and beyond. There's a lot of continue in this text, but we will also continue to invest in future growth, the continuous renewal of our portfolio towards premiumization, non-alcoholic and beyond beer, and fuel our ambition to become the best connected brewer and reach our sustainability and responsibility ambitions. At the same time, we will continue to shape and optimize the portfolio, as we have done with our most recent investments in South Africa and India, but also with the sale of our soft drink business in the Netherlands. Whilst we are confident in our ability to deliver on our strategic priorities, We also continue to see a challenging geopolitical and macroeconomic environment, with a consequent risk on the consumer demand in various markets. Whilst we acknowledge some events in 2023, such as the debt destocking in Vietnam, will not reoccur, these economic conditions may hinder a stronger volume growth next year. We will give a more specific update on our full year 2024 outlook at the presentation of our full year results in February. With that, I would like to open the line for Q&A and thank you for listening.

Thank you. Please press star followed by the number one if you'd like to ask a question and ensure that your device is unmuted locally when it's your turn to speak. If you change your mind and wish to withdraw from the queue, it's star followed by two. We kindly ask that you limit yourself to one question and one follow-up only. Our first question today comes from Olivier Nicolai of Goldman Sachs. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Hi. Good afternoon, Harold. Good afternoon, Federico. Just a quick question on Europe, I guess. You've commented about the slowdown of consumer demand. Could you give us an idea of the exit rate you've seen in Europe or perhaps the current trading in October? In other words, are you able to quantify how much of the decline you've seen in Q3 is linked to the brutal weather in July-August versus underlying consumer weakness? That's the first question. Just secondly, perhaps if I can, on Heineken Silver Lounge, can you give us a bit of an update and perhaps what's your ambition and target for the brand? Thank you. In the U.S., I meant.

Yep. Olivier, thank you very much. First, I think we maybe take a step back. All the way at the beginning of this year, we really were quite concerned about the European consumer's resilience. You may recall that at the time of our full year results, we said, look, we expected some weakening of consumer sentiment in Europe, given the unprecedented inflation, not only in our own category, but of course, given the energy crisis across multiple categories. That really has continued to persist and was exacerbated by the summer weather, particularly in July and August. And as you know, these are the two big months of the summer season. So there is a disproportionate impact on there. Now, there were two parts to your Europe question. The first one is, can you clearly indicate what weather-related is? That is a bit complicated. And why is that complicated? Because you know that since 2019, we've seen also on-trade outlets being 10% lower than what it was before the pandemic. And there is definitely a bit of a channel shift that is also starting to happen in some of the markets. So I don't really want to be precise about what is the weather impact and the not weather impact. Hours of sunshine, hours of rain, I wouldn't want to be too precise about that. What I can, however, say is that the momentum in September was significantly better. And let's call it about half to a third of the exit momentum in quarter three is the improvement that we saw in September. And also the early parts of October show further recovery of the European market. So that's one of the important factors why we continuously say that we continue to see improvement in our underlying business and volume trends. also towards the end of the year. But let me add, not yet to full positive volume recovery. So that's into play. What is also important, let me use the opportunity here, is that we very specifically navigated on-trade versus off-trade. And obviously what we signal here is that we were the first one to lead pricing in Europe. And as a consequence, we had to replant promotions towards later end in the year. This is still very much a factor, and it has taken a bit longer in some of the markets than we anticipated to get that full balance right, whereas in the on-trade, where we have more direct access, we see a stronger performance. We are also comfortable that over time that will phase out, but it's a matter of time and not as quickly as we anticipated or would have liked. So maybe that's enough on the European consumer demand and the exit rates. And maybe there's a follow-up question for someone else coming. In terms of the Heineken Silver launch in the US, we are actually happy with where we are. We've put together quite an ambitious plan. Also, I have to say, fully funded with Las Vegas still coming in. But we are happy. quite detailed tracking in terms of are we getting the distribution reach, are we getting the required rate of sale per distribution point, and we are on track according to our internal business plans. We believe that this is going to be a very sizable part of the Heineken franchise, but it will take time to build, like Heineken 00 took time to build, and we're also very happy on how that momentum is continuing today. So we don't really want to see a flash in the pan, but really do it right.

Thank you very much.

Thanks, Olivier.

Thank you. Our next question today comes from Lawrence Wyatt of Barclays. Your line is open.

Afternoon, Harold. Thanks very much for the question. Two also from me. Just following up in Mexico, we've now had four years of OXO mixing and next year will be the first year without that. Given you've had some fairly decent performances in the region, do you think it's reasonable we could get back to that sort of modest growth, I suppose, in this quarter in volume terms historically before the OXO mixing, before the pandemic? I think you could hit sort of middle or even high single digit volume growth in the region. Do you think that's sort of a reasonable medium term expectation in that country? And then secondly, on Vietnam, of course, in Q4, you'll be facing the headwinds from the tough comps from that fairly heavy sell-in going into Tert. In 2022, I think that the volume numbers were flying around quite a lot in volume terms in Asia-Pacific as a result of comping the pandemic. But I was wondering if you could give us any help of how much of a headwind we should expect in Asia packs just simply from that heavy sell-in into Vietnam. So thank you very much.

Yeah, Lawrence, both good questions. Let me start with Mexico. So as you can read from the announcement, we're actually quite pleased with the Americas, but also with Mexico and our performance. And just to stay the obvious, because you all know this, but the continued journey on 6th is a very important part of that success model. And as you look at it over time, with indeed the last phase of oxal mixing coming into play, both in the traditional trade outlets as well as six, are by and large offsetting that trend of the oxal mixing. And that is also what we will continue to experience. Although I have to say, we said that we called it out also in the early part of next year, because it will take time to phase in. We will see some impact of this last wave. Structurally, we are comfortable with where we are. We also believe that the market is healthy. But to your question about do we believe volume to move to the mid to high single digits, Look, the reflection is that the beer market currently is quite significantly below that mid to high single digit that you're calling out. And one of the most important factors, as you know, is both population growth, but also GDP growth. And historically, we're looking more at the Mexico market of a low to mid single digit rather than a mid to high single digit that you're calling out. But I like your optimism and hope that that will come through at a given point in time. But that's more where our thinking sits, Laurence. And we believe that the competitive situation is properly balanced. In terms of Vietnam, you're totally right to call that out because there was a very significant impact in quarter four that we then had to take out at the start of this year. And I think I actually quoted the number of about a million hectoliters that was there. Now, what is important to also understand that this is built up well ahead of the months to come. So in the last year, this was already starting to happen in August, September, all the way through December. through to quarter four in order to then take it out in quarter one. So it's not the full one million that you will see us having to lap in quarter four. And our guidance of what we expect in quarter four is already fully taking a much more moderate tech into account. And clearly we've learned our lesson on not only looking at our distributor stock, but five miles down the road into distributors' stock levels as well.

That's very helpful, Harold. Thank you very much.

Thanks, Lauren.

Our next question today comes from Edward Mundy of Jefferies. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Afternoon, Harold. I've got one question, one follow-up. But both on slide nine, where you talk about the full year profit outlook being unchanged and very helpful for you to comment on your degree of comfort with consensus. But on the inflation and the productivity elements, I think you gave a little bit of color with H1 around some of the input cost inflation, probably moderating from mid-teens to low-teens in the second half. Are you able to confirm that's still the case? And then equally on the productivity side, I think you talked to around about 300 million in the second half. Can you confirm that? But that's still the case. And then my follow up again on slide nine is really around this sort of volume and pricing dynamic where you're starting to see an improving trend, but pricing is starting to taper off. I think beer historically has been quite good at holding on to price. But how do you think about the risk of price rollbacks of your markets into 2024?

Yeah. Look, with an eye of the time, let me be short on your first question, Ed. Both are very understood and very relevant. Yes, I can confirm the low to mid-teens for the second half of the year. And yes, I can confirm that the 300 million of productivity savings that we flagged at the mid-year is firmly in sight and on track to be delivered. So that's the easy part. In terms of the price rollbacks, in fact, let me do a bit of justice to that. What we're observing is that the whole industry is actually starting maybe in different, let's call it phases of time, but every one of us is experiencing same levels of cost pressures based on, of course, the location that we're in, because you will hear also from my narrative that Africa is a very different market than, for example, a Brazil and Mexico versus a European one. So we're really looking at price competitiveness and input cost inflation on a local market-to-market basis. But what we do observe, the risk of price rollbacks is, of course, greatest in Europe, is that we have taken necessary pricing action, also taking into account these more moderate levels of inflation that we see in order to adjust. But at the same time, we also see competition moving up because we were first mover in that respect. So I'm actually seeing a price rebalancing across the, let's call it the industry, in the different markets. So again, market by market, that is the case. And therefore, I personally view the risk of price rollbacks, given also diesel inflation, oil inflation, wage inflation, as relatively moderate and frankly not deserved because we are still way above pricing levels that we've observed two or three years ago. So I think that's a difficult case to make from a retail point of view as well.

Great, thank you.

Thanks, Ed.

Our next question comes from Mitch Collett of Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Hi, Harold. I'd like to come back to something you said earlier, where I think you, I'll try and get the phrasing right, but you said the upper end of the range is less likely. I guess that means you're saying it isn't totally impossible that you would be in the upper half of your guidance range. And I wondered if you could give us some colour on what it would take to get you there. And also, I suppose, what it would take to keep you towards the bottom end of that range. And then my second question is a follow-up to a comment you made about half to a third of the exit rate being due to September in Europe. I didn't fully understand what that meant, so I wondered if you could help us and clarify.

Thank you. Yeah. Okay, let me do the last one first, because it's probably... I was trying to be a bit too careful, perhaps. uh the the growth rate in europe in beer was minus seven and a half percent rounded numbers uh in in september it was minus three okay so does that help mitch yes yeah yeah so i was i was trying to word it too smartly and and lost the audience so apologies for that image then then on the outlook um look We believe that there's a lot happening in the world at the moment. So I just also want to caution of, yeah, if I was in the business of predicting, I probably would not be here. But what I do see indeed is that the upper end of the range, really many things would have to go right. And at this moment in time, it's difficult for me to battle that. And that's why I say that it is less likely to end up at the higher end of the range. So what would that mean? It would mean a normalization of the situation in Vietnam and Nigeria. Now, the current indications in the newspapers that I read is that things would be coming into play, like, for example, government of Nigeria fundamentally increasing wages as a minimum wage standard. Or you would really see tourism and international trade return to Vietnam, and in particular Ho Chi Minh City and the southern districts, in order to boost the inflow of funds in order to get the consumers back. Based on what I read, I see some signs of, particularly in Vietnam, starting to rebalance. But most of the articles that I read is that it will take longer to do so. So I just want to caution for a little bit too much optimism on the higher end of the range. But things happen quickly in the world of today. So I also don't want to close it out fully. The lower end of the range is basically what I know now. So we do observe a recovering of underlying volume momentum in the majority of our markets. I've just given you the European numbers. And the Americas continues to do very well for us. And we do see less pricing pressure coming into play. So those are the elements. What I cannot influence is what is the spillover effect from the many difficult parts that we see in the world, for example, Israel, Gaza, impact on oil prices, consumer sentiment, you know, these things I cannot influence. So what we very often say is in the current context, knowing and controlling the controllables that we have, this is the guidance that we can confirm. I hope that gives you some flavor, Mitch.

Yeah, very helpful. Thank you, Harold.

Our next question today comes from Andrea Pistacci of Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Yeah, good afternoon, Harold. Two questions, please. The first one is around the comment you made right at the start and in the press release where you flagged a slowdown in consumer demand in various markets. So I just wanted to know if this is mainly referred to Europe or any other markets in particular. I mean, Vietnam, of course, and... and Nigeria have been soft all the way along the year. So trying to understand whether sequentially places, or Europe in particular, you think is getting worse, net of the weather effect or not really. Second question, please. I just wanted to dig a little bit deeper on South Africa, where you've had a difficult year and a particularly difficult quarter, and you're saying... you're going through the integration process. And of course, South Africa is a competitive market. Given everything you know in South Africa, is there anything you think you have to fix or change there to return to growth? And when should we see the benefits come through on the distribution, the incremental points of distribution you'll be getting because of the acquisition of Distel? Thank you.

Yeah. Thanks, Andrea. So good questions again. So on the slowdown of various markets, indeed, what is first and foremost in our minds is indeed some of the relevant markets to us like Vietnam and Nigeria. But to your question about where do you see sequentially this happening? I think when you read through our press release, the spillover impact that some of the markets have is very different in the APAC region. So for instance, India, we see more positive momentum. China continues to be very good for us. But if you then look at Malaysia, for instance, where there are some concerns about consumer offtake and also Cambodia, where we are doing very well, but the market is quite depressed. This is something that we're observing, and it would be wrong to say that this is a generic trend, but what we are cautioning is that the spillover impact in APEC is something that we keep on the watch. And that is something that I think we're calling out. In the case of European markets, also there, it really is market by market. So, for instance, we see... One of the questions I still expect, but a reduction from premium to mainstream, how do you call that? Yeah, a down trading. We do see that happening in Italy and in Poland, for example, but very different. In Poland, it really is a general shift to less expensive outlets. And in Italy, it's people really going for the higher alcohol beverage but always in promotion at that fixed price point. So the dynamics of consumer behavior are different. Conversely, we see growth in premium still happening in France, still happening in the Netherlands, and in Austria, now we've got back to competitive price points, our markets are doing quite well. So it really is almost market by market, consumer behavior is still settling. So I don't want to call out a generic slowdown across our business. It really is some watchouts market by market. Thanks for letting me clarify that, Andrea. And in terms of South Africa, look, fix or change is quite a brutal way of saying it. I think we're super excited with the Heineken beverage company that we've finally, after two years, could welcome to the Heineken family. And we still believe, we were just there a few weeks ago, we really believe in the long-term potential and the team is doing an awesome job. At the same time, this is probably one of the biggest acquisitions that we've done for a very long time. And it is therefore a lot of integration effort that is required as well. And as you say, this is a competitive market. And like Okay, I can call it because you all know it. Like we would enter an ABI market, they would prepare a welcome plan. You know, ABI has done their homework. So I believe that this is just part of the nature of competition. And we believe that now we've got the integration going ahead of the peak season, in the next six, seven, eight months, we will see a rebound and a resettling of that competitive landscape. That's what we're working towards.

Thank you. Very helpful.

Next in queue, we have Simon Hales of Citi. Please go ahead.

Hi, brilliant. Hi, Harold. Hi, Federico. Most of my questions have been answered, but can I just clarify just a couple of your remarks, please? Firstly, just around the risk of price rollbacks, I appreciate that you think it's unlikely we'll see pricing coming down. Does that also apply to how we should think about promotional activity? I could we see an uptick in in trade promotional spend? That means that the net realized price that you see in aggregate could come down even if the headline price doesn't move. And then secondly, just on the outlook for COGS into 2024, I just want to sort of clarify, I think you said that you're now expecting in aggregate to see some deflation, albeit that's driven by Europe and the Americas and some inflation in Africa and Asia. But overall in the round, you are looking for a bit of COGS deflation next year.

Yeah, so I'm going to resist the temptation to jump on that one, but answer the first question first. Look, Simon, I don't have a glass ball. And the risk of generic price rollbacks, as I said earlier, I consider to be low. But what is the case is, of course, we need to adjust to economic and competitive realities. And if there's one thing that we are discussing internally here is, are we responsive enough to competitive fights? And that is something that we will continue to do. So do I really expect a very significant, let's call it deflationary pricing environment because of a readjustment of promo mechanics? I frankly don't, because there's only so many promo slots that you can have in a given point in time. But what I do also want to emphasize is that we will be competitive in the fight for the customer and the consumer. And that's the balance that we're trying to bring. So I cannot really comment on the net realized price outlook. other than what I just said, is I don't see that really taking shape in aggregate into 2024 on balance. Yeah. So I hope that's specific enough because we will be competitive, but I don't really see a very significant deflationary environment is what I'm trying to summarize. And then on the outlook for the COGS, I think you... you were trying to point to something that I explicitly did not say and don't want to say at this moment in time, and that is what is the net aggregate. And the two reasons are that we're still operating in quite volatile times. Not all of the hedging has taken place, but we're progressing and we're in between, anywhere between 65% and 80%, depending on the material or the energy contracts. So we're still in the full-fledged negotiations cover on some. And the second one is that we're in the middle of our planning season, and particularly local sourced materials like sorghum or diesel prices, we just need to still investigate and study. So deliberately, we called out the component parts like Africa, Europe, and the Americas, but not the aggregate just yet.

Got it. Very clear. Thanks, Harold. Thanks, Arne.

And finally, our last question today is from Trevor Sterling of Bernstein. Your line is open.

Hi, Harold. Two questions from my side, please. One, just following up on Vietnam, I think you said in the H1, when volumes were down in the low to mid-20s, that roughly half of that was underlying and half of it was the destocking. And now in Q3, we're at mid-teens. So it looks as if anything, things have got slightly worse in Vietnam in Q3. So I wonder if you can give any color on that, that'd be great. And indeed, you hardly exited Q3. And I think on the positive side, Brazil was back to a very strong performance in Q3. And I think sequentially an improvement in Q2, you know, I guess with Amstel in particular, massively outperforming. So maybe any more color you can give on Brazil and what's going well in Brazil, that'd be great. Thank you.

Yeah. No, Trevor, as per usual, you really put the finger there on Vietnam. And there are two things at play there. The first one is if we look at Nielsen, for example, you may recall that Nielsen in the first half of the year called out a flat half one. And why was that? Because, you know, the whole quarter one comparison and the debt, et cetera, even if we overestimated it, was still giving quite a big impetus to the market. And Nielsen now is calling out minus nine. So there is indeed a shift, which is why I'm also calling out, you know, weaker economic sentiment, but also consumer sentiment in Vietnam, because it's the market that is dragging us down. And the other side of the equation that I was quite specific on at the half one, and I am quite specific on now, is that if you look at our strongholds, premium Ho Chi Minh City, the conversion into mainstream and more spread out also to the north is taking its toll on our volumes. Now, we have also, because we're not only sitting here looking at it, what we are really doing is making sure that our strategy is geared towards addressing those components. So we are focusing on gaining share in mainstream markets. We are focusing on preserving our strongholds with relative share. But the mixed effect of that is something that we can only, to a limited extent, influence. So that's why I think we see progressive performance in Vietnam on an underlying relative basis. But you're totally right in terms of the volume composition. It is at mid-teens. Now, to your point, what is your exit rate and how do you look at this? I don't think that the market will improve in the second half of the year or in the last quarter. And I do believe that progressively we will stabilize, but it will take more time for us to really accelerate from that position. That's what I think will happen in Vietnam, Trevor, in all transparency. And thank you for your compliment on Brazil. We're very happy with our Brazil performance. And I now noted down that I forgot your question. I just wrote down Brazil is strong.

It was really just asking for, it looks like there's a sequential acceleration compared to Q2. And really just a little bit of background in terms of what's going well. We can obviously see that Amstel brand in particular has a lot of momentum, but also Heineken doing well too.

Yeah, and I think it's right that. I think we try to say in the text, in the script, that also our route to market that we have now changed is continuing to pay off. We've also increased prices in February. And I think the whole industry has now started to stabilize a little bit because the, let's call it the pricing is coming down. And that, of course, creates also additional consumer demand. So we do see also healthier underlying market dynamics. And within those market dynamics, our portfolio and our route to market are the reason for that relatively strong competitive performance, we like to believe.

Super. Thank you very much, Harold.

Thank you very much. And may I also thank you all for making the time on another busy day to attend this call. Federico, maybe back to you?

Back to the operator, actually, to close the call. Thank you, everyone.