Heineken N V S/Adr

Good afternoon, everybody, from Amsterdam. Thank you for joining us for today's live webcast of our 2024 full-year results. Your hosts will be Dol van den Beek, our CEO, and Harold van den Boek, our CFO. Following the presentation, we will be happy to take your questions. The presentation includes forward-looking statements and expectations based on management's current views and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties, and it is possible that the actual results may differ materially. For more information, please refer to the disclaimer on the first page of this presentation. I will now turn the call over to Dolf. Dolf?

Thank you, Tristan. Welcome, everyone. Last year, we delivered a solid year, demonstrating momentum and progress on our multi-year strategy, Evergreen. Before we delve into the results, let's start with a brief reminder of our strategy, which continues to shape our business. Our ambition is to deliver superior balance growth to consistently create long-term value. We do this with a clear focus on five strategic priorities embedded in the business as indicated on the left. These priorities propel the flywheel of our growth algorithm. We've had to top first and foremost growth. We're targeting superior and balanced growth, both volume and value growth. Growth enables gains in productivity and this in turn fuels resources for investing in further growth and to improve profitability. And this year, that certainly has delivered the balance embodied in our Green Diamond. We delivered growth, balance between volume and value, continuous productivity, better capital efficiency, and made progress against our ambitions on sustainability and responsibility. Let's take a closer look at our key highlights of the year. First and foremost, we achieved broad-based beer volume growth in all four regions. We gained or held volume market share in the majority of our markets. We made a meaningful material step up in marketing and selling investments behind our brands and invested significantly more behind our digital and technology platforms, supported by our productivity programs. At the same time, we were able to deliver strong profit growth with strong cash flow generation. This has enabled us to increase our cash returns to shareholders, including a dividend in excess of 1 billion and a new 1.5 billion share buyback program, which Harald will discuss in more detail. Additionally, as we look ahead to 2025 and taking into account macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties, we expect operating profit value next year to grow organically in the 4% to 8% range. So let's take a look at our financial highlights. Net revenue Bayer grew 5% organically versus last year. Significantly, our growth was balanced and broad-based as net revenue per hectare to Bayer grew 3.5%, while total beer volume was up by 1.6%. The momentum behind the Heineken brand continues with 8.8%. Operating profit Bayer grew by 8.3%, and the margin was 15.1%, up 40 basis points versus last year. Notable was the strong improvement in the Americas. Net profit buyer improved by 7.3%, with the growth coming mainly from the strong performance in operating profit. Diluted EPS buyer landed at €4.89. Harald will cover this in more detail later. The delivery of our growth has been balanced, and moreover, the volume growth itself has been of high quality. Mainstream brands grew slightly ahead of our total portfolio, led by the big brands in our biggest markets, including Kingfisher in India, Cuscampo in the UK, and Amstel in Brazil. Our premium beer brands grew 5%, more than triple the rate of our total beer portfolio. The growth has been delivered by a wide range of premium brands and extensions across our regions, including Kingfisher Ultra in India, Birra Moretti in Europe, Dos Equis in the Americas, and Desperados in Nigeria. And of course, led by Heineken, which was up almost 9%. The growth was broad with 24 markets in the double digits, most notably in Brazil, China, and Vietnam. Additionally, Heineken 0-0 grew 10%. This high-quality volume growth led to a 5% net revenue buyer growth with positive price mix in all regions. Operating leverage led to good revenue-to-profit conversion with operating profit buyer growth over 8%. Now, let me take you through the performance in our regions. First, Africa and Middle East, where we achieved volume growth and successfully navigated volatility under challenging conditions. Net revenue Bayek grew organically by 24.5% with 3% beer volume growth and a strong price mix of 21%, mainly by pricing for inflation and currency devaluation. operating profit by equal 31% as pricing, accelerating volume growth, and continued productivity gains more than offset cost increases. In Nigeria, we successfully navigated high inflation and severe currency devaluation, actively adapting our cost base. Despite difficult economic conditions, I'm pleased how the team grew volume in the teens and gained overall share. Gold beer grew volume in the 30s and Heineken and Desperados led the growth in our premium portfolio. We're competing and winning with a diverse range of drinks, beer and beyond beer. Our non-alcoholic malts performed strongly and with the addition of distilled Nigeria, we expanded our portfolio to include fast-growing wine and distilled spirit brands. Also in South Africa, We completed the integration of Distel, positioning us as a strong challenger with a competitive multi-category business model. Beer is back in growth, supported by the launch of the 65CL returnable glass bottle for Heineken. Our Beyond Beer portfolio, led by Savanna and Bernini, continued their strong momentum. In our Wine and Spirits portfolio, we have seen some solid growth from key brands such as JC LaRue, Amarula, and ClipDrift-friendly as we use our full platform to drive the growth. Elsewhere in Africa, we took effective pricing in Ethiopia to protect profitability before and after a steep local currency devaluation. It's also worth calling out the strong performance in Egypt, our latest market to implement our digital backbone, to which I will return later. On to the Americas. which really stood out due to its strong operating profit performance, while funding a significant step up in marketing investment. Net revenue by a good 3% and bear volume up a percent. Price mix grew by 3% benefiting from pricing and premiumization. Operating profit by a good 24.5%, supported by a better portfolio mix and productivity savings. In Mexico, we delivered strong operating profit growth, benefiting from the productivity programs. We also invested back in the business, both in marketing and in our production footprint, as we started construction of our new brewery in Yucatan. During the year, we had solid volume growth. Tecate Original and Dos Equis grew volume mid-single digit and high single digit, respectively. Indio grew in the teens, leveraging its deep roots in Mexican culture. In Brazil, we maintained and expanded our leadership in the premium category as we further stepped up investment behind our brands. Heineken achieved its 11th consecutive year of double-digit growth. In mainstream, Amstel is now a top five brand in Brazil, doubling its volume over the past three years to 11 million hectoliters. In a challenging U.S. market, our market share remains stable with Heineken 00 recorded its sixth year of consecutive growth. Elsewhere in the Americas, we achieved growth and share gains in Panama, Peru, and Ecuador. So moving on to APEC, where we significantly stepped up our marketing investment to set up the region for further growth. Net revenue by a group by 5%, beer volume by 4%, and price mix 1%. Operating profits increased by 2%. In Vietnam, the market returned to growth in both the on and off-premise channel by the end of the year. The Heineken brand grew volumes in the 50s, led by Heineken Silver. During the year, we actively adjusted our portfolio as channel dynamics evolved. This has led to our mainstream brands to grow in the double digits, with Biafiet up almost 60% and Leroux Smooth growing and gaining share in central Vietnam. In India, volume was up by a high single digit as our momentum continues, underpinning our belief in the future potential of this market. The premium portfolio grew in the 30s, gaining share in the segment, led by Kingfisher Ultra and Ultra Max. In China, Heineken continued its strong growth trajectory in the premium segment. Volume was up in the high teens, driven by the strong momentum of both Heineken Original and Heineken Silver. Elsewhere in Asia, Cambodia volume declined, pressured by challenging conditions in a declining market. In Laos, we gained significant market share as we grew beer volume by more than 60%. Now on to Europe, where we are focused on investing behind our brands and transforming our portfolio to refuel growth. Net revenue buyer declined by 1.5%, partly due to lower intercompany exports, with both price mix and volume slightly positive. Productivity savings financed our step-up in marketing and ensured price and promotional competitiveness, whilst also enabling operating profit buyer to grow 2% organically. We gained or helped market share most of our markets, most notably in the UK, where our full innovation-led portfolio delivered shared gains, to which I will return in a minute. In Western Europe, consumer sentiment impacted our growth, though pricing remained stable after the sizable increase last year. We had strong growth in our next generation brands, such as Calia in France, El Aguila in Spain, Tessels in the Netherlands, and Desperados more broadly in Europe. The non-alcoholic beer and cider portfolio grew by a high single digit, led by Heineken 00. Elsewhere in Europe, both revenues and volumes were good, notably in Southeast Europe, with strong performances in the Czech Republic, Greece, and Croatia. I wanted to return to the UK, where we continue to gain both significant volumes and value share in both on- and off-premise channels. We have transformed our business to ignite growth through different levers of our portfolio. Bira Moretti is the leading lager brand on draft in the UK and continues to drive the growth. With the introduction of Bira Moretti Salle di Mare, we had one of the biggest innovations in the beer market over the past year. B for Time is now the leading craft brand in the UK, led by Neko IPA, which had another year of on and off trade share gains. Inches and Old Moods are growing double digits, further premiumizing the cider category. Cuscombo, with which the most successful UK alcoholic beverage launch is over a decade, underpins our double-digit growth in the mainstream segment. We've continued to innovate on Foster's, recently with Foster's Proper Shandy, and signing a multi-year partnership with the professional Darts Corporation. Darts has become the most watched sport on British TV after the Premier League. We have invested more than 200 million pounds revamping our 2,400 strong pub estate in the past five years, providing great surroundings and high quality experiences. As such, our pub estate has significantly outperformed the wider pubs market. More broadly, We were rated by the Advantage Group as the best supplier to all on-trade customers and the number two supplier across all CPT players by grocery customers. Moving on to Brand Heineken, leading once again our portfolio. The sustained momentum behind the Heineken brand continues to pace. The innovations of Silver and ZeroZero have been additive to growing the brand power and volume of Heineken original. Total Heineken has grown 75% since 2018. Heineken's growth continued into 2024, adding another 9% of growth with 24 markets in the double digits. Most notably in Brazil, China and Vietnam. Heineken Zero Zero and Heineken Silver have been once again strong contributors, up 10 and 34% respectively. I'm also especially proud that the Heineken brand continues to be admired for its creativity in both idea and execution. Our award-winning campaigns celebrate social moments around our brands, and we continue to leverage global partnerships, including Formula One and both the men's and women's UEFA Champions League. Let's dive a bit deeper into Zero Zero. We continue to be the global leader in the non-alcoholic beer, a category that delivers growth, profitability, and moderation. Since the launch of Heineken Zero Zero in 2018, we have captured more than 40% of the total global growth of the non-alcoholic beer market, three to four times our fair share. Heineken Zero Zero is the largest global brand in zero alcohol, having revolutionized the category. It's now available and admired in 117 markets, growing by double digits in 28 markets this year. Moreover, we continue to introduce Zero-Zero variants of our key brands, amongst more recently Son-Zero in Brazil, El Aguila Sinfiltrar Zero-Zero in Spain, a broad range of Sea-Wet Zero-Zero flavors in Poland, and Desperado Zero-Zero more globally. I wanted to reflect on the significant investments we are making this and the coming years, enabled by our productivity initiatives Harald will touch upon later. This year, we stepped up our marketing investment by double digits, investing 3 billion in total, or almost 10% of the revenue behind our brands. In every one of our regions, our investment in marketing was ahead of revenue growth OG. We're building new greenfield breweries in markets with strong growth potential, including Mexico, Brazil, and with our JV partner in Dubai. And we are investing significant sums behind our digital technology programs, including our eB2B platform, connecting over 700,000 customers in fragmented traditional channels, reaching $13 billion in gross merchandising value in 2024. Our multi-year digital backbone program that simplifies back office processes whilst building a global data foundation and unlocking the value of that data, which we level throughout the business by leveraging artificial intelligence from our connected breweries to our shared service centers. We are truly building, investing, and future-proofing our business, not just for the next year, but for the next generation. And of course, When looking at future-proofing our business, Brew a Better World, our strategy to deliver on our environmental social responsibility ambitions, where we are progressing across all three pillars. In our ambition to achieve net zero carbon emissions in scope one and two by 2030, we continue to make progress. Reduced our emissions by 34% in the last two years. On our journey towards healthy watersheds, we improved water efficiency across all our breweries to 3.1 liters per liter of beer produced, and now have over 36 water balancing projects. On the solar pillar, we achieved our targets of at least 30% women in senior management roles by 2025, a year early. On responsible consumption, as I indicated earlier, as category leaders, we continue to make progress to make sure that zero alcohol options are always a choice and broadly available. And with that, let me hand over to Harald to discuss the financial highlights. Harald.

Thank you, Dolf, and good day to you all. I'll first take you through the main items of our financial results, then come to our share buyback announcement before closing with our outlook for 2025. Starting with our top line performance on slide 17. We posted an organic growth of 1.5 billion, or 5%, delivering 30 billion of net revenue by year. In the year, we delivered a good balanced growth, with volume, pricing, and a positive mix effect for premiumization. Total consolidated volume on an organic basis grew 1.4%. Beer volume grew in all our regions, as Dolb indicated, in line or ahead of the category in the majority of our markets. Lower third-party volumes partially offset our beer volume growth, particularly in our wholesale network in Europe. Net revenue per hectolitre increased by 3.5%. The underlying price mix on a constant geographic basis was 4.1%, with a price component of 3.7%. Price mix improved in all our regions, more pronounced in Africa and the Middle East, and especially in Nigeria, to offset inflation and currency devaluation. Currency translation dampened net revenue buyer by 1.65 billion, mainly from the devaluation of the Nigerian Naira and depreciation of the Brazilian Real and the Mexican Peso. The consolidation effect had a net negative impact, primarily due to our exit from Russia and the sale of Rumona, more than offsetting the acquisition benefit of Distil and Embraer Brewery. As we move on to the next slide, we delivered 4.5 billion of operating profit value, growing 8.3% organically and representing an operating profit margin value of 15.1% at 40 basis points versus last year. The 1.5 billion of organic net revenue buyer growth on the previous page translated to 367 million organic operating profit growth, a conversion of 24%. Pricing and strong growth moderate total cost inflation and investments. Our variable cost per hectolitre decreased organically by low single digits as lower commodity and energy costs in the Americas and Europe more than offset a double digit increase in Africa and the Middle East. The latter driven by high local inflation and exchange rate devaluations in key markets such as Nigeria and Ethiopia, for which we successfully priced. Marketing and selling investment as a percentage of net revenue BAYA reached 9.8%, up 70 basis points compared to the prior year and reflecting an organic increase of almost 300 million. All regions invested in marketing and sales at a faster rate than their revenue growth. Whilst all regions contributed to the organic growth in operating profit BAYA, the Americas region was the main contributor, up 24.5%. Next to top-line growth leverage and positive portfolio mix, variable expenses benefited from lower commodity costs. In addition, and proportionally more significant, margins improved due to structural productivity savings that delivered outstanding results, especially in Mexico and Brazil. For instance, we made major steps in nearshoring and local sourcing, collaborating with strategic suppliers, We were also able to systematically lower our distribution costs and deliver meaningful fixed cost productivity. The Africa and Middle East region achieved the pricing needed to offset the impact from inflation and transactional currency effects. Volume growth provided leverage, and together with impressive productivity savings, including sharper choices in capital expenditure, reflecting a more uncertain environment, this flowed through to operating profit-buyer growth. In Asia-Pacific, good performance from India in the top-line recovery in Vietnam contributed to operating profit buyer growth, partially offset by reclining Cambodia. In Europe, we reinvested the majority of lower variable cost and productivity gains behind growth and competitiveness, noticeable in our market share trajectory, and still delivered a 35 basis points positive operating profit improvement. Consolidation changes had a negative impact of 62 million, primarily due to our exit from Russia and the sale from Fomona. The translational currency effect was 236 million negative, mainly from the devaluation of the Naira in Nigeria and depreciation of the Mexican peso and the Brazilian real. We achieved over 600 million in gross savings in 2024, surpassing our half a billion target. Approximately 40% of the growth savings were delivered by our supply chain operations over the year, proven to be a continued source of productivity. Secondly, strong supplier collaboration and a series of new procurement initiatives delivered another 40% of the aggregate growth savings. The remaining came from initiatives related to fixed-cost optimization. A few specific examples. In Europe, countries closely collaborated as we progressed with our supply chain transformation and brewery network optimization. We rolled out centralized demand and supply planning and transportation services, leveraging AI solutions and thus driving significant productivity. The Americas contributed a third of the saving, for instance, through portfolio harmonization and nearshoring in close collaboration with strategic suppliers, both enabling a more efficient value chain. predominantly in Mexico and Brazil. The productivity initiatives in Africa and Middle East helped us to remain competitive in a high inflation environment. The teams worked hard on right-sizing operations and leveraging digital for more efficient processes. This in turn led to a lower break-even point for our business, specifically in Nigeria, Egypt, and Ethiopia, with significant benefits when volume growth resumes. In Asia Pacific, our markets focused on design to sustainable value initiatives, as we harmonized our packaging range across the region, while still searching to pursue our needs. Adolf already mentioned, and depicted on the right side of the chart, these productivity improvements not only enabled a double digit increase in marketing and selling investments in support of growth, and helped fund the digitization of our business, but also, and importantly, helped improve productivity, profitability. Let me turn to other key financial metrics on slide 20. Our share of profit Bayer from associates and joint ventures grew 16.7% organically, reflecting the strong profit growth of our associates and joint venture partners in Chile, Costa Rica, and China. Net interest expenses Bayer increased organically by 12.7% to 543 million, reflecting an increase in our average effective interest rate to 3.5%, predominantly from higher interest of local borrowings in Nigeria. All the net finance expenses amounted to 271 billion, an organic increase of 12.1%, mainly caused by transactional foreign exchange, resulting from the devaluation of the Nigerian Naira and the Ethiopian Baird. and the depreciation of the Brazilian Real and the Mexican Peso. Net profit Bayer increased by 7.3% organically to 2.74 billion. The effective tax rate Bayer was 27.9% compared to 26.8% in 2023. This increase is primarily due to the tax law changes in Brazil that came into effect on January the 1st, 2024. All in all, this resulted in an organic EPS Bayer increase of 4.7% to €4.89. Given our solid performance and within our target payout range of our dividend policy, we will propose at the AGM of this year a dividend increase of 7.5% per share to €1.87. This equates to a negligent amount of 1.05 billion to be returned to shareholders through dividends. Finally, our net debt to EBITDA-BEI ratio was 2.2x, below the long-term target of below 2.5x. Let me now turn to free operating cash flow. We recorded the cash inflow for the year of 3.1 billion, a 1.3 billion increase from last year. As a reminder, our cash delivery in 2023 was relatively soft, so the improvement should be taken in the right context. This came from a big part from the circa 1 billion of working capital improvements, mostly from Europe and the Americas. Leaving the relatively easy comparator aside, we are pleased and encouraged to see results of specific interventions to enhance our capital productivity. A few examples. With advanced analytics, we are optimizing our way of working, leading to improved debtor management and cash collection practices in the Americas. We are gaining traction to use AI in our forecasting process, thereby optimizing purchasing and inventory levels. And we've been working with suppliers to bring our payment terms closer to industry standards. CapEx was just under 2.5 billion, lower than last year by 226 million, and representing 8.2% of net revenue Baina, below our guidance of 9%. We invested in additional capacity in Brazil, returnable packaging materials, for instance, in South Africa, and in a canned packaging factory in Mexico. We also allocated specific funds for sustainability investments, where we have now developed good practices to assess individual projects on technical feasibility and financial risk and return. Cash flow from operations before working capital changes was lowered by 43 million. Cash used for interest, dividends, and tax decreased in aggregate by 190 million, mainly from lower income taxes paid. Let us now turn to our capital allocation priorities. As a reminder, in our value creation model, we prioritize organic growth and this year we had a significant step up in reinvesting back in the business especially through higher marketing and selling investments and new capacity in key markets as I just mentioned. We do so within a disciplined financial framework with a prudent approach to debt. We remain committed to our long-term below two and a half times net debt to EBITDA ratio We maintain a consistent dividend policy, as we have for decades, paying out 30% to 40% of net profit value. As I said earlier, our proposed dividend will return over $1 billion of cash to shareholders. We also prioritize value-enhancing acquisitions to enhance long-term profitable growth. And as previously indicated, we consider additional capital returns, such as share-buying. In 2024, we achieved significant deleveraging, ending well within our target capital structure, supported by a strong free operating cash flow. Consequently, whilst we continue to invest in our business, we are well positioned to return additional capital to shareholders. And as such, this morning, we announced a two-year share buyback program, where we intend to repurchase own shares to an aggregate amount of $1.5 billion. Heineken Holding and Vee has committed to participate pro-rata to its shareholding based on their 50.005% ownership. Simultaneously, Heineken Holding has also announced a two-year share buyback program where they intend to repurchase up to 750 million of their shares. They will use the proceeds of its pro-rata participation in our program to finance their program. Both Heineken and Vee and Heineken Holding will cancel the repurchase shares, thereby reducing the number of outstanding shares and issued capital. Lars Green, Heineken's Holdings' largest shareholding, and ultimate controlling shareholder of Heineken NV, fully supports the program, but will not participate in the share buyback. Now, lastly, our outlook for 2025. We anticipate continued macroeconomic challenges, including weak consumer sentiment in Europe, volatility, inflation, and currency devaluations in developing markets, and geopolitical fluctuations potentially affecting our consumers. The 2025 outlook reflects our current assessment of these factors as we see them today. For the full year 2025, we foresee continued volume and revenue organic growth. However, good to mention that the first quarter will face a high comparison base and be impacted by technical factors, such as fewer selling days and the timing of Easter and death. We expect our variable cost to rise by a mid single digit per hectolitre, excluding Africa and Middle East, however, where higher local input cost inflation and currency devaluation persist variable costs are expected to increase by a low single digit per hectolitre. Our continuous productivity programme aims to deliver at least 400 million of growth savings in 2025, funding growth, digital transformation and sustainability initiatives. As it did this year, we intend to further increase in support of our brands and for marketing and selling expenses to grow ahead of revenue. Overall, we expect to grow operating profit buyer organically in the range of 4% to 8%, with the risks and opportunities we see in the upcoming year incorporated in both ends of the range. With a more stable set of finance expenses and tax rate, we expect organic net profit buyer to be broadly in line. Before we go into Q&A, just once again to summarize. A solid year for Henrik. We achieved broad-based bear holding growth in all four regions. Our strong productivity program enabled us to materially step up our investments in marketing and sales and support our digital and technology journey. We delivered strong profit buyer growth and cash flow generation, allowing us to increase cash returns to shareholders. And as we just showed, we expect operating profit buyer organically in 2025 to grow in the range of 4% to 8%. With that, we're happy to take your questions.

Thank you. Please press star followed by the number one if you'd like to ask a question, and ensure your device is unmuted locally when it's your turn to speak. A kind reminder to please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. Our first question today comes from Edward Mundy with Jefferies. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Afternoon, . So one question, one follow-up. really a big picture question to perhaps take a step back. Very nice shape to the P&L and good cash generation this year. What's clicked and what gives you confidence that you can continue on this trajectory of delivery and absorbing external volatility? And then the second question, perhaps for Harold, of the 600 million of cost savings versus the original target of 400 million in fiscal 24, what were the incremental things that you'd found And clearly you're guarding for at least 400 million in fiscal 25. Can you talk about some of the initiatives for next year as well, please?

Very good. Thanks, Ed. Let me take the first one and hold if you can take the second. It's a broad question, Ed. But actually, let me go back to the evergreen growth flywheel. We are in consumer goods. It all starts with volume growth. And therefore, last year was so critical because we showed growth in all four regions and we showed high-quality growth with mainstream positive, premium at double, triple the rate, and zero, zero, even three, four times that rate. So the core is volume, and that is what we have been investing in, whether it's investing in greenfield breweries and high-growth markets like Mexico, Brazil, Dubai, or investing in marketing and selling expenses. So that is one. The RMG, the revenue margin growth, is very important, assuring that we take enough pricing where we should, like in high inflation markets in Africa, but also make sure that we moderate pricing to allow consumers to catch up. And therefore, for example, in Europe, we moderate our pricing to allow consumer volume growth to return. And the pinning this is savings. I remember starting in my role four years ago and speaking with many of you. And at the time it was said, you know, Heineken is a great marketing company, but you guys don't do savings. You don't do cost well. And this was one of the key pillars that we put forward in Evergreen. And now cumulative, we have taken 3.4 billion of cost out. And after taking a lot of the high-hanging fruit or the low-hanging fruit initially, now we're really making systemic changes to our cost structure across the world. And those savings of 600 million, over 600 million last year, absolutely fundamental in assuring double-digit increase in marketing and selling expenses, increase in digital technology investments, while still generating 40 basis points of margin. So it's really the growth flywheel with growth, savings, investments propelling new growth. And we really hope in 2025 to keep building on this momentum and make sure that the flywheel keeps turning the way it did last year.

Yeah, and on your second point, indeed, we are delivering over 600 million of cost savings in 2024. The target for 2024 was 500 million, just to be clear. that we actually have got good visibility on the pipeline of projects and when they will turn up into the P&L. So we are really moving from ideas to business case evidence to then implementation and then to value capture. That's the process that we're running. And as a consequence of that, the over-delivery in 2024 is good news, but not necessarily that much of a surprise. It just all came together. And it really is because all of the regions have really done their utmost in order to make this happen. For example, you hear me talk about Africa, which had to navigate very volatile times but did not sit on their hands to adjust their cost base. And then when volume starts to come back in, like it happened in Nigeria, for example, in quarter four, you do see the benefits of that lower cost base coming through. So I think it is, as Dolf just articulated, becoming a structural approach to how we look at productivity in our organization. Now then pivoting forward into 2025, we have got the same visibility that I just commented on, also for 2025. And just a couple of data points. Our brewery network optimization is a project, a big program and a series of projects that takes time to mature. And therefore, this continues also in 2025. And Europe is working very hard on making that all land. The second one is, and I called it out just in the script now, we have some very interesting new procurement ideas that we're bringing into the equation in 2025. And last but not least, our digital and technology investments are not there to catch up with the past. We're also very focused on driving business returns. And this is as simple as removing duplicate payments to actually starting to become more sophisticated in what product needs to be served in what channel through what means in advanced markets like Mexico and Brazil. So all of this is really starting to happen in 2025. Hopefully that gives you a flavor.

Very good. Thank you.

Our next question comes from Sanjeev Ajula with UBS. Your line's open.

Hey, Dolph, Harold, Tristan. A couple from me, please. Firstly, on the variable cost guidance of mid-single digit, clearly that's a step change versus 24. Against that backdrop, how are you thinking about the scope for gross margin expansion in 2025? will you be having to step up pricing if it is an intention to deliver that? And my second question, just on cash conversion, very strong delivery, Harold, in 24 after a challenging 23. How should we think about the run rate for cash conversion from here on in? I think we're at 100% last year. Is that sustainable if there's more working capital efficiencies to come through? Thank you.

Well, I guess I'll take both of them. Go ahead. So first, Sanjit, I think your variable COX guidance is indeed a mixture of all the markets that we operate in across the world. You know that very well. But therefore, I think it's really to unpick that because we're singling out Africa, which of course continues to experience high inflation and currency devaluation. And if you look at the rest of the markets, it's much more low single digit. What is also the case, because it's linked to the point that you're making, is that markets have more or less experience in how to price for that inflation and devaluation. So we're fully expecting, for example, in Africa, to be able to price for that. And I think the proof of the pudding has actually been given also in 2024. Now, the denominator-denominator impact plays a role, but we do expect also in outside of Africa that pricing will be relatively modest going into 2025, because we really want to ensure that we find this balance between market momentum that needs to be sustained and therefore affordability needs to come into play. But at the same time, find other levers like back price architecture or channel mixes that really needs to be able to offset that. So pure pricing will be moderate. Yes, we still have an ambition to go for gross margin expansion. How that will turn out, we'll have to have a discussion market by market and region by region. I hope that gives you a little bit of a picture, but for sure, we see a gross margin expansion over time as part of our financial success model. Then in terms of the cash conversion, as I just tried to indicate, this is not just a bounce back of what we had in 2023. There's an element of it, but we also are working extremely hard. We have this concept of cash control towers that we're now putting in all of the regions. I was talking about much more sophisticated practices in terms of going after debt management, but we're also working with suppliers, for instance, in order to get this cash conversion indeed up to the 100%. Now, whether 100% is sustainable, I don't think it will be in the short term. And the very simple reality check that we also need to do is that currencies plays also a role. So, a free operating cash flow A lot of our profit is coming from Mexico, Brazil and other markets will have to be taken into account. So don't beg 100% too soon. What we are committed to is incremental progress on that cash conversion. But I think 2024 was a bit of a sweet spot in the percentage.

Thank you.

Our next question comes from Gin Cross with BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.

Hi, Dolph, Harold and Tristan. Thank you for the questions. A couple from me. You mentioned that the 4% to 8% organic operating proof guidance has got both risks and opportunities. I wonder if you could just give us a bit more color on some of the scenarios that you envisage at the higher and lower end of that guidance range. The second question is on Vietnam, where you've talked about some improved volume momentum,

off-premise and on-premise channel returning to growth in q4 um if you just share a bit more color and what you're seeing on the ground there right now in your early sense of how strong that was thank you fantastic thanks ken let me pick up on the vietnam question and harold can comment on the on the outlook um so indeed encouraging to see every at the half year mark we were sickness The stabilization of the total market, but indeed towards the fourth quarter, we saw not only growth returning to the off-trade, but also to the on-trade in sell-out. So that's a very good sign. And we do expect that to continue. Then what we saw in our own volumes, we were actually up mid-single digits in volumes. That was partly because we were cycling the destocking a year earlier in the first half. And in the fourth quarter, because TET moved earlier, some of the TET moved into November, December. And as we are more premium and TET is more of a premium location, we benefited. So we really, from a sell-in, we were moving ahead of the market. But you have to be cautious to just project that out. What we are very proud of is the rebalancing in the portfolio. First of all, Brent Heineken is absolutely on fire, growing another 50%. Heineken Silver, which was originally developed and launched in Vietnam, continues to grow at incredible pace. With the rebalancing in the market between premium and mainstream, and between on-trade and off-trade, the mainstream portfolio became even more important. Very happy to see double-digit increases on it. Biafjet, which is a proposition which we nationally launched a couple of years ago, growing 50-60%. La Roux, which is very important in the mid-central region, up strongly on a new innovation, La Roux Smooth. So it is multifaceted. It is rebalancing portfolio. It's rebalancing channel. It's rebalancing geographies. And in the aggregate, we're very pleased how the team has navigated a pretty challenging situation over the last two years. And we are cautiously optimistic about the short and the mid-term. Important to notice where the end of the year benefited from early TET, Q1 will, and the opposite, will suffer a little bit from that. That is implied in our comments in the outlook on Q1 volumes. But underlying, we are happy how both markets and our portfolio is developing. Harald.

Thank you, Adolf. So first, thanks for the question on the outlook range. I think it's a very relevant one. Maybe just before I get into the specifics, just to zoom out a little bit. I think over the past years, we've seen turbulent times, and that has taught us not only to respond, but also to anticipate a little bit better. And I think what we're trying to signal with this 4% to 8% range is that we have got better in risk identification, scenario planning, but also the importance of consistency in our results. So that's message number one. Now, what the outlook statement also says is that there are a number of factors ranging from inflation to foreign exchange to some geopolitical situations that are unfolding by the day. And therefore, we really need to call out that what we are flagging today is based on the knowledge that we have today. And that means that the 4% of the range really is taken into account, potential tariff structures that are being talked about in the U.S., Or, for example, continued volatility in Africa that we also have seen. And Nigeria is still not out of the woods. Ethiopia and you will have other countries that you will have in mind. But on the upper end of the range, it's also important, right? This might actually be a boost for growth for some of our markets if it falls the right way. There are a number of momentum cases that we're building, and we've talked about the stronghold markets. Dolph just gave an example of Vietnam, that actually we're in a better place than we were a year ago. And I think our 2024 results are also an indication of that. So I think it's indeed right to look at the full spectrum of that 4% to 8%. We've developed a number of scenarios, but these scenarios are based on our current knowledge.

Thank you.

Our next question comes from Sarah Simon with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Yes, good afternoon. I've got three, if I may. First one was how you talked about CapEx coming in a bit low than anticipated and kind of cutting your cloth for an uncertain environment. Do you think that that's just kind of deferred CapEx, i.e. it's going to reappear somewhere else down the line, or is it sort of discretionary capex that you're simply not going to spend. Second one was on aluminum. As you think about your 4% to 8% range, have you got any specific assumptions around aluminum and what prices might do if there are tariffs? And then the third one was, can you remind us of the phasing of new capacity being opened in Latin America in particular, please?

Yeah. Yeah, let me just go one, two, three. So first, The CAPEX lower is indeed a reflection, as I just called out, of a more volatile environment. And frankly put, also some volumes that are coming in, predominantly from last year, lower than expectations. So this is a right sizing and try to picture that, for example, we had quite big capacity expansion plans in Nigeria that now we have put on hold and deferred that later. What is, I think, important is that we continue to invest in our organization and in our business. We are still investing above 8% of revenue in new projects, and this is not only in new production capacity, it is also in returnable bottle, it is also in digital and technology, and it is also in sustainability. So I would like to take away this notion that we have just put a brake on it because we're not investing in the future. That is definitely not the case. What is the case is that we really are trying to be much more mindful in a current uncertain construct about how quickly we invest upfront. and are finding ways, through example, this supply productivity, to actually squeeze more volume out of our existing footprint. So that is, I think, an extremely important point, and you will have therefore also picked up that also for 2025, we expect similar levels, not bouncing back to our previous guidance of 9%. So indeed, our intent is to stay closer to the 8% than to the 9% range going forward as well. On your second point of aluminium, important, yes, it's baked into the 4% to 8% range. We also have seen commodity prices react, and therefore this is an important point for us to watch. However, the hedging policy is such that we have effectively covered most of that for 2025 already. So anything that will happen will not have a material impact on that 4% to 8% range. And then the phasing of new capacity. In Brazil, new capacity is coming on stream in quarter three, quarter four this year. And in Mexico, we're building only for 2026 and beyond. So that's a bit the highlight of the new capacity phase.

Thanks a lot.

Thanks Sarah.

Next we have Celine Panucci with JP Morgan. Your line is open.

Thank you very much. Good afternoon everyone. Thanks for taking my question. So first question, I wanted to come back to the commentary you made on tariffs. Could you please explain a bit what could be the impact that you will see if you could quantify that? And then maybe related on the same topic on tariff, what is your expectation for Mexico in terms of performance in the country for 2026, consumer environment, pricing, volume? How do you feel that the potential situation with tariff will impact your business locally? My second question, staying with Latin America, is on Brazil. Could you talk about pricing? I think it seems you've not priced yet in Brazil while competition has priced. Are you expecting to price or do you think that you have hedges that allow you to pose a bid versus competition? And we saw a strong margin expansion throughout the year in Brazil. Can you talk about the driver of that and whether we are at a level where you feel you have maxed out, I mean, where we are in terms of the journey for the opportunity on margin in Brazil? Thank you.

Very good. Well, otherwise this turns into the CFO call. Let me also answer two questions. Let me take the first two and then maybe you can comment on the Brazilian pricing. On the terrace, maybe one thing to first speak about is that beer, and in particular the Heineken footprint, we are a very local for local company. In 70 plus countries, we have local breweries operated by local people with even more than half local brand portfolio selling to local customers. over 80-90% of our inputs, country by country, are sourced locally. So as such, that gives us a relative protection and makes us expect a relatively lower impact than maybe other industries. That is one. Now, the one country where we do have some exposure is indeed the US, because we import from Mexico, we import from the Netherlands. But actually at the scale that Heineken is these days, the U.S. is a relative moderate-sized operating company, less than 5% of revenue and volume. Yeah, I don't know about you, but we are joking in Heineken that we have green bottles, not crystal bottles, for sure not a crystal ball. So we don't know what's going to happen. We also don't know what's going to stick here. because you can't pick up breweries and move them around. Some more probable impacts are taken into account in our outlook as a matter of caution, but overall in the aggregate we don't expect a huge impact. On Mexico, the local operation, Actually, when you look to the exit rate, it has been relatively strong. Post-elections, we see our business, particularly in the fourth quarter, picking up. So no concerns there. Also not on January. So at least in that regard, no caution. But again, we don't have crystal bottles, so we'll follow that closely. We are in a fast mode. As we were saying, we're building a new brewery in the Yucatan. It has not been spoken about in the Q&A, but we promised and we delivered a very significant step up in our marketing and selling expenses, up double digit, more than 300 million, growing at double the rate of our revenue. Actually, every region, our marketing expenses are growing faster than revenue, but certainly in our priority markets like Mexico and Brazil. So those are a couple of thoughts on your first two questions. Maybe you can take the Brazil pricing, Harald.

Yeah. So Mauricio, our general manager in Brazil, will like this question a lot because, you know, I think we have been over the past years actually very focused bold in setting up our portfolio, particularly in the premium, but also the upper mainstream part with Amstel, up for success and have confidence in the brands that we built. So we actually have been price leader in those markets, despite our relative size. So the fact that our competitor has now initiated pricing is not really necessary for us to respond to that because we follow our own pricing strategy and really are looking at the comparable products in the market and what our consumer is prepared to pay for it. And therefore, I think we will have factored in a relatively moderate amount of pricing going into 2025, because we're happy with the price premiums that our portfolio is carrying, but we also want to stay competitive. And we previously spoke also about another competitor that is really trying to dominate the economy segment. So price relativities actually matter in this market. So we stay the course. And this is a bit of a link to also your second question about the margin expansion, because this has been in the making over years, this Brazil or actually the Americas profit acceleration that you see. Just to call out a few facts. We've been price leaders. We've been strengthening the brand Heineken. We've been strengthening the Amstel brand. Dow just called out doubled in the past three years also. And that really gives us a portfolio platform that has been very good to us, including the P&L. Secondly, just to call it out for the Americas, our premium portfolio has grown from 30% of our footprint in 21 to 36% in 2024. And that actually excludes Amstel. So we very intentionally worked around the portfolio model and that is now starting to pay off. The go-to-market transition in Brazil was also done intentionally, and not only was that a carrying vehicle for our premium and upper mainstream brands, it also allowed us to increase the returnable bottle as a proportional part of our footprint. We also no longer import 1 billion bottles. And we are, as I just explained, heavy on digitization of our route to market and creating more efficient processes. So you see wherever you look, whether it's the top line or the variable cost or the fixed cost, we are putting all the structures in place to make this a very profitable and growing business. And that's what we like to see. Now, to your point, has it maxed out? I don't think it has maxed out. But what is the case is that, of course, that pace of acceleration is no longer sustainable. We are now reaching levels where a more normalized expansion should be expected. And maybe let's leave it at that with an eye on the time as well. Thanks, Celine.

Our next question comes from Chris Pitcher with Redburn Atlantic. Please go ahead.

Good afternoon. One question for me, following on really from the Brazil point. I mean, you've shown good improvement in profitability in the Americas, both in Brazil and Mexico over time. Could you talk a bit more about your plans for South Africa and the rest of Africa? Because as a region, obviously, it drags on your group margin. When you acquired Distel, you were pretty confident on the cost hinges. Can you give us an idea of where South African profitability is now after what's been quite a disrupted five years, both sort of operationally and with the integration? And then can you just give us an idea of how you're running Africa outside of South Africa? I mean, you referred to East Africa today in terms of volume performance. Are you thinking more in regional groupings, ex-South Africa? Thanks very much.

Yeah, let me start and then feel free to compliment. So first of all, I think there are indeed three, four parts to Africa. Historically, Nigeria has been extremely important, and of course our P&L has been highly impacted by the massive devaluation of the last 18 months. We are proud of how the team has been responding, how they have been right-sizing the cost structure, how we have transformed our portfolio. We actually had double-digit volume growth, believe it or not, in that environment. We gained market share. It was balanced between economy, mainstream, and premium. We have done a rights issue, rebuilding the balance sheet. So short-term pain, but we really believe that we have done the structural systemic things to set Nigeria up for growth over the next three to five years. And a story that we tell internally, if you look to Europe, you see now that the fastest-growing economies in Europe are Greece, Portugal, and Ireland, which were the most crisis-stricken impacted countries a decade ago during the euro crisis. And we believe that Nigeria, and to the same extent Ethiopia, is forced to take a lot of tough medicine as a local economy, but also for our business. So short-term pain, and indeed from a bottom-line point of view, not yet sufficiently visible, but we're really structurally setting that business up for mid-term and long-term growth. Ethiopia, the same thing. We saw the devaluation coming, and we sacrificed some volume share by initiating pricing early, and that has really protected cash flow and bottom line. Still, we do believe, and we are the market leader, both in Nigeria and Ethiopia, we have the strongest portfolio, and we're doing the top work on the balance sheet and cost structure. So that is one. to south africa and southern africa post the style acquisition extremely important we have been transparent that we dropped the ball on a couple of commercial elements during the transition the transition was in a way a reverse takeover highly complex we do believe now that we're coming to the back end of that we saw volume return across the different product segments volume growth in beer, in cider and ready to drink, in wine. So that is where, you know, what we want to see. We saw also a big jump in profitability, not yet at full potential, but a big step in the right direction. We are not yet gaining share to the extent that we feel, because the whole strategic premise was to build a strong multi-category model to accelerate share gains. That is not yet happening, but again, we're taking things in a step, and we do it very structurally. and very methodical. Namibia, where we are now a multi-category business, because the old Namibian breweries and the distilled Namibia has been merged, the same in Mozambique. So you see that the model of South Africa is being replicated in a couple of other markets with good results. And indeed, the East Africa countries of Uganda, Tanzania, Kenya, where we are combining the distilled operation and our legacy Heineken export business is really very synergetic, especially on the revenue side. And that's why we make that comment. So across the board, doing a lot of the tough things to put this region up for sustainable and profitable growth in the mid and the long term. Short term, we are not satisfied, let's be clear, about the bottom line at delivery. That will have to follow soon, but a big step in the right direction. Good. I think we can allow for maybe one more question, right?

Absolutely. Next question is from Trevor Sterling with Bernstein. Please go ahead.

Hi, Dolph, Harold and Tris. Two from me, please. First one around selling and marketing, Dolph. I know you don't manage the business to a ratio, but I did see that the ratio seemed to go up from 9.1 to 9.8. You've indicated that you want to further increase selling and marketing ahead of revenue. but have you any sense of your broad range of where you'd feel the business was investing at the right level? And the second question, you know, you've came into the top of guidance in 2024, which parts of the business came in at the top of your own expectations in 2024? And as you look forward to 2025, where are you most positive about a continued step up in momentum?

Very good. Let me, let me start. Well, marketing is selling again. I hope what's coming through in our answers that with Evergreen, over the years, we have made a couple of priorities that we have been trying to be very consistent about, whether that was about a structural systemic productivity programs, big step up in digital technology on both back end and front end, Step up on marketing selling. So the marketing selling, we made a huge step up in 22. Then due to circumstance, we had to pause, but we never reduced, but pause in 23. And in 24, we were able to resume the step up and we're signaling in our outlook that we'll continue that step up next year. I don't think we have a magic number in mind, Trevor. And we also want to be clear that operating companies need to fight for the resources. We want to make sure that every euro is spent with a high ROI. For now, we see plenty of opportunity. across mainstream, across premium, across low and no elk, across beyond beer, across digitizing the B2B. So right now, we are signaling marketing expenses to go up ahead of revenue for another year. Deliberately, we're not giving basis points there, but we are planning it to be meaningful. But again, opcodes really need to pitch. They need to work hard to convince us that they have the right ROI on those investments. And Yeah, we are proud. In the Q&A, it has not come through fully yet. We are super proud that after all the turbulence of the world and turbulence in our footprint of last year, that we have solid volume growth across all four regions. And that the quality of that growth is good with mainstream up, premium at 5, Heineken at 9, 0-0 at 10, where we are the global market leader. That's what we want to see. That's what we're investing in. And that's what we want to systemically kind of lean into. So that's a bit of a flavor leveraging your question, Trevor, if you allow me.

And maybe, Harald, if you... Yeah, and maybe let me try to make a link, because the top end of the range was partly because it was market-driven. And we were very happy with the results of India, for example. Also, the premium growth of India was twice the growth of the premium segment. The Americas, we've spoken a lot about them. Financial results came in very strongly. And what was also important is that we were cautious on Nigeria. And actually, despite all of that turbulence and that pricing that needed to be taken, the volumes were actually better than what we anticipated. Also because we wanted to be a bit realistic and cautious there. So there is a momentum that DOLF is trying to articulate across a multitude of markets that make us feel pretty good about those results. And to make a link with the first question that Ed asked, is that also our productivity really came in quite strongly because everybody just kept going at it in order to continue to fuel the investments, but also deliver the ambitions that we set out. So I think all in all, a good team effort from Heineken.

Let me grab 30 seconds to round up the call. by actually thanking our shareholders for their patience. We realized that with all the turbulence of the last years, trust and confidence of our shareholders has been tested. And we do hope that our results, both bottom line, top line, capital, is an encouragement and a strong signal. And we hope that the share price reaction this morning is indeed a reflection that confidence is going up. We realize that we need to work hard every single day earning that confidence. But we do believe that the priorities of Evergreen, if consistently pursued, are starting to bear the fruits that we always intended. And you can count on us to keep on leaning in on that. On that note, thank you all. Have a wonderful day and looking forward to see most of you sometime tomorrow when we're in London. All the best. Take care. Thank you.