Heineken N V S/Adr

Good morning and afternoon everyone from Amsterdam. Thank you for joining us for today's live webcast of our 2025 half-year results. Your host will be our CEO, Dol van den Brugt, and our CFO, Harald van den Brugt. Following the presentation, we will be happy to take your questions. The presentation includes forward-looking statements and expectations based on management's current views and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties. And it is possible that the actual results may differ materially. For more information, please refer to the disclaimer on the first page of this presentation. I will now turn the call over to Dol.

Thank you, Tristan. Welcome everyone. We delivered a solid first half of the year in a turbulent world whilst progressing on our multi-year strategy Evergreen 25. We will update our progression on Evergreen at our upcoming CME in October. But before we delve into the results, let's start with a brief reminder of our strategy which continues to shape our business and how we think about this going forward. Our ambition is to deliver superior balance growth to consistently create long-term value. We'll do this with a clear focus on five strategic priorities embedded in the business as indicated on the left. These priorities propel the flying wheel of our growth algorithm with at the top first and foremost growth. We are targeting superior and balanced growth, both volume and value growth. Growth enables gains in productivity and this in turn fuels resources for investing in further growth and profitability. This half year we continue to deliver on our green diamond. We deliver top-line growth, continuous productivity, initiated our 1.5 billion share by that program and make progress against our ambitions on sustainability and responsibility. Let's take a closer look at our key highlights of the year. First and foremost, we report strong profit growth in the first half of the year supported by our global footprint, especially by APAC and AME. We delivered volume growth improvement in the second quarter, continuing to be of high quality and despite some softer markets and one-off events. We're making sustained progress on our evergreen journey, investing behind our brands and digital transformation to ensure quality growth for the future. Looking ahead to the second half of the year and despite microeconomic challenges, we confirm our guidance for the full year operating profit by our next year to grow organically in the 4 to 8% range. So let's take a closer look at our financial highlights. Net revenue by a group .1% organically versus last year. Net revenue per liter by a group by .3% while total beer volume was down by 1.2%. The good momentum behind the Heineken brand continues with .5% volume growth. Operating profit by a group by .4% and our operating margin was 14.3 up 26 basis points. Net profit by improved in line with OP by .5% with the growth coming mainly from the strong performance in operating profit. Diluted EPS by a landed at 2.08 for the half year and Harald will cover this in more detail later. Volume trends improved in the second quarter and we ended the first half down by 1%. The quality of our volume however continues to be high. Mainstream brands grew and outpaced our total portfolio led by the big brands in some of our biggest markets including Kingfisher in India, Leroux Smooth in Vietnam and Amstel in Brazil. Our premium brands grew at almost 2% across our regions especially the Kingfisher Ultra franchise in India. And of course led by Heineken. Up .5% growing double digits in 27 markets most notably in Nigeria and very broadly in APAC led by China and Vietnam. Heineken 0.0 was stable below the usual high rates what we have come to expect something to which I will come back to you later. Our price mix was strong in the first half up .7% on a constant geographical basis. Together with the high quality volume performance this resulted in a .1% net revenue increase leading to the .4% operating profit growth. Let's discuss next the regions. First Africa and Middle East where we achieved volume growth and are successfully rebuilding profitability. Net revenue grew organically by .8% with 1% volume growth and a strong price mix of .7% pricing ahead of inflation in most markets. Operating profit doubled as we benefited from a transformed cost base and strong revenue growth. Notably in Euros operating profit bay grew over 50%. In Nigeria we reshaped the business over the last 18 months following the devaluation of the Naira taking out costs restructuring the balance sheet and transforming the brand portfolio. Micro economic conditions are back to relative stability though the consumer sentiment remains subdued and inflation stubbornly high. Nevertheless we performed ahead of the market as our premium portfolio accelerated led by Heineken, Desperados and Legend Stout. We now have over a 40% share in Stout in Nigeria. At Heineken beverages there has been sequential improvements following actions we have taken. In South Africa beer volume and market share stabilized towards the end of the first half led by Amstel. Bernini continued its very strong growth in the RTD segment. We are pleased with the trajectory of improvement but also conscious that there is still more to do. Namibia, Kenya and Tanzania performed strongly leveraging the advantages of our broad alcoholic beverage portfolio. Elsewhere in Africa we have seen strong growth in Ethiopia with brands such as Bedele and Hairaar supporting us to extend our market leading position. As we indicated earlier in the year we were fortunately lost control of our operations in Bukavu in the eastern Congo as the security situation in the country deteriorated. We were focused on ensuring the safety of our employees. On to the Americas where our business showed resilience. Net revenue declined .8% and beer volume was down .2% in the first half but positive volume growth in the second quarter. Price mix was slightly down. Operating profit was down .3% as we cycled our large step up last year. In Mexico beer volume grew low single digit and expanded broadly in line with the market. We continued to invest in our channels and production footprint as our 17,000 six stores boosted our revenue growth and we started preparations for our new brewery in Yucatan. Our resilience in the first half was broad based across the portfolio. Also Ultra and Miller Highlife led to growth in premium both expanding by double digits. Indio grew by a high single digit continuing to celebrate Mexican heritage. Takata Original and Dos Equis delivered solid growth. In Brazil after beer volume declined in the first quarter as we rebalanced and reduced excess inventory we returned to growth in the second quarter. Based on sell out data we captured some significant market share in the first half while seeing a softening in the markets towards the end of the half. In the growing premium segment both Heineken and Isoban delivered growth. We were also pleased to see Amstel sustaining its momentum with growth in the teams. Our new 5 million hectolitre brewery in Pasos is on track to open in the next quarter. The US continues to be a challenging environment for beer. The recent terrorist impacts our business particularly expected in the second half of the year. Despite an overall weaker market Heineken 00 accelerated its momentum with double digit growth. Moving on to APEC where we posted growth on all metrics as our team markets performed strongly in the first half of the year. Net revenue grew by 5.5%, beer volume by 3% and price mixed by 4.5%. Operating profits increased by 11%. In Vietnam the market has returned to growth and our investments to expand portfolio and broaden geographical reach are delivering strong results. As volume expanded by a high single digit and net revenue grew in the teams. We gained share in both channels and across the portfolio. The Heineken brand grew volume in the 50s led by Heineken Silver. Our mainstream brand portfolio also continued to grow with LaRue Smooth growing in the 60s. In India volume was up by a high single digit as our momentum continued. Growing significantly ahead of the overall market and winning share in more states. The premium portfolio grew in the 30s gaining share in the segment led by Kingfisher Ultra and Ultra Max. In China Heineken continued its strong growth trajectory in the premium segment. Volume was up in the 30s driven by the strong momentum of both Heineken Original and Heineken Silver. Also volume more than doubled becoming a significant contributor to the growth. With an expanding contribution of royalties and share of profits the importance of China to our business is increasing. Lastly Europe, net revenue declined by 4% with beer volume declining 4.7%. Mainly because of prolonged retail negotiations in Western Europe. Price mix was positive up 1.2%. Our operating profit growth declined by 5.2%. In the UK we continued to win market share in both channels where our broad portfolio delivered share gains including in the premium and cider segment. Cuscampo continued its strong trajectory building on the growth of last year. Murphy's stout expanded benefiting from distribution gains in neutral placements in the old trades. In Western Europe extended customer negotiations in Western Europe particularly in France, the Netherlands, Germany and Spain impacted performance. These strategic discussions aimed at preserving future sustainable category development are now fully resolved positioning us for sequential volume improvement in the second half of the year. As such in France beer volume declined but recovered strongly in June as negotiations concluded. In addition we saw recovery of growth in the old trade channel in several key markets. Elsewhere the beer markets were down in Poland and Austria leading to volume decline. The latter due to the implementation of a new deposit scheme resulting in sharp decline in the Cairn segment. In Switzerland and Romania volume grew led by strong growth of global brands Pira Moretti and Amstel respectively. Our strategy in Europe remains clear. We're shaping the category and delivering value by investing behind our premium and mainstream brands accelerating low and low leadership fueling innovation and sharpening our revenue management capabilities all while driving productivity to fund investments in growth. Moving on to Brent Heineken leading our portfolio to sustain momentum behind the Heineken brand continue to pace. The innovations of Silver and Zero Zero have been additive to grow in the brand power and volume of Heineken original. Heineken's growth continued in the first half of 25 adding another .5% of growth with 27 markets in double digits most notably in Nigeria and APEC especially in Vietnam and China. Heineken Silver was a strong contributor to the portfolio with 34% of growth primarily in APEC. Heineken Zero Zero was as mentioned earlier flat though returned to growth in the second quarter. The USA and also Canada delivered strong growth and will continue to expand into the old trade. However, they were offset by the temporary actions of entry adjustments in Brazil and the impact of customer negotiations in Europe. Our strategic intent is to continue the growth as we lead and shape the Zero Zero category. Let's call out another hero within the Heineken portfolio, Amstel. It's our second largest brand in our portfolio and one of the top five global beer brands. In the first half, Amstel grew by a high single digit with over 10 million hectoliters sold globally in the first half of 25. Amstel is leading the charge for us in the affordable premium segment as a quality beer for quality bonding moments. The brand is sold in all regions in over 30 markets, growing double digits in 15 markets. Including a doubling of the volume in China in the first half. Brazil has been leading the charge over the last years with the skill to partner with leading sponsorship platforms, including the Comembol Libertadores, the biggest football tournament in the Americas. We have created a repeatable model with innovation being core to Amstel as a global brand with local relevance. This is exemplified by the successes such as Amstel Grande in India, Amstel Ultra in Mexico and Amstel Oro in Spain with more to come. Also an update on our sustainability strategy, Brew a Better World, where we are progressing across all three pillars. In our ambition to achieve natural carbon in scope 1 and 2 by 2030, we continue to make progress during the first half of the year. For example, we agreed new power purchase agreements in Italy and Nigeria and installed industrial electrical boilers in Chuteau Vauden brewery in the Netherlands. On our journey towards healthy watersheds, we improved water efficiency across all our breweries. We have been named the water basin champion for the Rio Bravo Grande Basin in Mexico. On the solar pillar, we achieved our target to have at least 30% women in senior management roles. We continue to strengthen our pipeline talent to ensure equal performance based opportunities. On responsible consumption, as category leaders we continue making good progress on our ambition to normalize moderation. A recent Nielsen survey revealed Heineken being identified as the number one drink brand encouraging responsible consumption. To further strengthen this connection, we took our partnership with Formula One to the next level with Heineken 00 making an appearance in the F1 The Movie with Brad Pitt. Lastly, while we remain focused on delivering strong results today, I'd also like to offer a brief glimpse of what's ahead at our upcoming CME in Sevilla, Spain. We will present the next step in our journey future-proofing Heineken, Evergreen 2030. Our number one priority will be on growth, showing progress and latest plans to continuously strengthen our advantage footprint and shape our brand portfolios with bigger and better brands and innovations. On productivity, we have delivered over 3 billion of growth savings and are now making the next step, building more advanced capabilities to take better advantage of our scale and also step up our focus on capital efficiency. We're making the business future-fit, implementing our digital backbone as we transform and digitize our organizational model, while preserving what makes Heineken cultural unique and magical. I look forward to expanding on these topics at our upcoming CME in October in Sevilla. And now over to Harald.

Thank you, Dolph, and good day to you all. Let me take you through the main items of our financial results. Starting with our top line performance for the first half of 2025, we posted an organic revenue growth of 380 million or 2.1%, delivering 14.2 billion of net revenue per year, driven by positive price mix and with a slight negative volume growth. The total consolidated volume decline of .1% reflects the decline of minus .4% in quarter one, followed by a sequentially better second quarter at broadly flat volume, with three regions in positive volume growth. Europe's bear volume was down for both the quarter and the half by a -single-bidget, affected by prolonged and now fully resolved customer negotiations, as Dolph just indicated. The underlying price mix for the first half year on a constant geographic basis was 3.7%, with pricing at 2.6%, almost entirely led by the Africa and Middle East region as we price for inflation and foreign exchange related cost increases. Overall net revenue per hectolitre increased by 3.3%. Currency translation had a major effect, reducing reported net revenue growth by 980 million, mainly because of the euro strengthening against most currencies significantly in the last six months. The consolidation effect primarily reflects the impact of our suspended operations in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Moving on to slide 17. We delivered 2 billion of operating profit, BAYA, growing .4% or 155 million organically, taking the operating profit margin BAYA to 14.3%, up 26 basis points for the purchase last year. Good to mention we ended up at the upper end of our expected range, due to strong sales in June and for now limited the impact of trade tariffs, in anticipation of which we accelerated savings projects. Growth savings reached over 300 million this half year. Given the sizeable movements across regions, let me share some key drivers. The region Africa and Middle East was instrumental in delivering the profit growth. To unlock the potential of this complex region, we must navigate risks, yet act on the significant opportunities we see. Across markets we adjusted a portfolio mix to specific local conditions, leveraging both premium and mainstream brands. We accelerated revenue margin management initiatives, stepped up route to market grip supported by digital solutions and continued to lean in heavily on growth savings to drive productivity, transforming the cost base. This combined with restrained upfront investment led to an operating margin expansion of close to four on the basis points. The biggest contributions came from Nigeria, Ethiopia and Heineken beverages. APAC delivered double digit operating profit growth, led by Vietnam and India, an excellent performance of our two largest markets in that region. In Europe, continued growth savings in variable and fixed costs from our productivity programs largely offset the impact of significant volume deleverage for reasons detailed before. For the Americas, it's good to bear in mind that in the first half of 2024, we recorded 37% operating profit organic growth. So we are comparing to a high base. This half year, it's reduced by .3% organically, in part driven by a suppressed USA bear market and a one off cost related to inventory reduction in Brazil to improve customer and portfolio mix going forward. As Dole's already pointed out, sell out remains strong and we continue to gain share in Brazil throughout the first half of 2025. Volume growth also was restored in the second quarter. Our variable cost per hectolitre increased organically by a low single digit as lower commodity and energy cost in Europe and the Americas were offset by a double digit increase in Africa, Middle East. Inflation and for is driven in particularly affecting Nigeria and Ethiopia. Marketing and selling investment was on 23 basis points compared to the first half of 2024, reaching .1% as a percentage of net revenue by. This supported our market share momentum with over half of our markets growing or holding shares. Consolidation changes had a negative impact of 16 million and the transactional currency effect was significant at 190 million negative, mainly again from the euro strengthening against our major foreign currencies. Let me now turn to other key financial data metrics. Our share of net profit data from associates and joint ventures grew .7% organically, led by our partners in China and CCU. Net interest expenses Bayer decreased organically by .8% to 260 million euros with an average effective interest rates similar to last year. All the net finance expenses Bayer amounted to 104 million, an organic decrease of .5% mainly caused by cycling the currency devaluation in Nigeria during the first half of 2024. Net profit Bayer increased by .5% organically to 1164 billion with depositors above largely offset by higher non controlling interests, notably in Vietnam, Nigeria and South Africa. The effective tax rate Bayer was .9% similar to last year first half. The major currency translation impact of close to 9% more than offsets the strong net profit Bayer organic growth. This leads to an organic EPS Bayer decrease of 3.1%. Now on to capital returns. As per our practice, the interim dividend is fixed at 40% of the total dividend of the previous year, leading to an interim dividend of 74 cents per share, up .2% versus last year. We initiated and are making steady progress towards a one and a half billion share buy back program. Our net debt to EBITDA Bayer ratio ended at 2.3 times for the half year below our long term target of below 2.5 times. Let me now turn to the free operating cash flow. We recorded a free operating cash inflow for the half year of 257 million, compared against a very strong inflow of 655 million last year, a delta of 400 million. Let me go through the main drivers. Cash flow from operations was 142 million less than last year, mostly driven by foreign exchange and largely related to the strengthening of the euro against the local currencies of our key markets. The working capital movement was lowered by 152 million after the significant improvement of 750 million we managed to achieve last year. We expect this to balance out in the second half. On payables we made progress as we continue to improve our position through structural initiatives. On both receivables and inventories we had several one-offs, therefore non-recurring items. Late trade replenishments in Europe following the conclusion of customer negotiations, the customer inventory reduction in Brazil and promotional phasing in South Africa to call out three. Last, Capex was up 144 million, which is purely project related timing. Investments were for example in our new Passos Brewery in Brazil with our first brew expected in quarter three this year, and we opened up our new R&D center in Zute Valley in quarter two. We also continue to invest behind our D&T infrastructure as we prepare for a 12-mile market rollout of our digital backbone early next year. We reconfirm our previous stated full year guidance on capital expenditure, and as a result we expect free operating cash flow to be materially better in the second half of the year, returning to a normal average for the year 2025 as a whole. Before going to the outlook, a reminder that our evergreen strategy sets out to deliver superior balance growth with consistent long-term value creation. Near term we anticipate ongoing macroeconomic challenges that may affect consumer spending, including softening sentiment in Europe and the Americas, inflation pressures and the impact of a weaker US dollar. Hyperinflationary risks remain in Africa, for instance Nigeria continues to be on the watch list. We now expect volumes in the full year 2025 to be broadly stable, with some rebalancing across regions showing the advantage of our global footprint. We expect a positive price mix, leading to a continued positive net revenue growth. We update our growth savings outlook. With clear line of sight of initiatives, we raise our ambition from 400 million to over 500 million for 2025, helping to offset lower volume, maintain a competitive level of marketing and selling investment, which we expect to increase for the full year versus the full year last year, and finance our digitalization agenda. Following our solid operating profit delivery in the first half of the year, we expect the second half to be a bit more affected by import tariffs into the USA, a higher transactional exchange rate impacts in the Americas and in Africa as favorable hedges are rolling off. All in all, we reaffirm our expectation to grow operating profit buyer organically in the range of 4 to 8% and expect net profit to grow broadly online. To summarize, we report solid profit growth in the first half of the year with an improved volume trajectory into quarter two. Our broad geographical footprint is supporting us as some markets experience a softer consumer environment. We remain long term focused, yet are making sharper footprint and portfolio choices as we future prove our business. All in all, we confirm operating profit buyer to grow organically in 2025 in the range of 4 to 8%. And as Dolph said, we're excited to host you in October on our Capital Market Day in Seville. We will share with you more detail on our multi-year journey towards Evergreen 2030. With growth as our number one priority, building a strong footprint and portfolio, a step up in productivity and a future growth more digitally enabled and more productive organization, we are looking forward to it. With that, happy to take your questions.

Thank you, Harold. To ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad now. If you change your mind, please press star followed by two. I'm preparing to ask your question. Please ensure your device is unmuted locally. And we ask you to keep it to one question and one follow up question per person. Our first question comes from Edward Mundy from Jefferies. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Afternoon, Dolph. Afternoon, Harold. Afternoon, Tristan. So one question, one follow up, please. So volumes improved sequentially in Q2 versus Q1 and guidance implied further improvement into the second half. Could you perhaps provide a bit of color as to what gives you confidence why H2 volumes should be better than H1? And then my follow up on the profit side of things, you've delivered pretty strong profits in the first half, despite, you know, Europe and the Americas hitting a bit more of a bump. How are you operating the business differently versus history? Could you perhaps provide some examples of increased agility that's allowed you to deliver on that 7% organic eBit growth?

Hi Ed, thanks for your questions. Let me take the first one and Harold, if you can take the second one. So on the volumes, and we saw a sequential improvement in the second quarter, beer volume was down 0.4 with growth in three regions. And in total consolidated volume, which is becoming more relevant since the distal acquisition, we were broadly flat in the second quarter. Importantly, key markets like Mexico and Brazil were up in the second quarter. Europe was better, but still in decline as we were still facing these prolonged customer negotiations, but which have now all been concluded. Importantly, for example, in June, also on the back of good weather, we saw strong performance in the on trade channel, both in share, but also in absolute volumes. And we do expect better volumes consequently in the second half in Europe. The APAC region is performing very, very well. High single digit growth in India, it's both market and share. High single digit in Vietnam, it's both market and share. With Vietnam, we need to be a bit cautious on Q4, because we had a early test last year, but now we will have a late test. So some of the volume will shift into Q1. But in the line, we see strong volume momentum in the APAC region, as well as in the AMA region where a critical market like Ethiopia bounced back to growth. We're getting very good revenue and profit growth in Nigeria, but there we are deliberately managing for euros and volume a little bit softer. And we're starting to see sequential improvement in South Africa. Very important where we start seeing the beer business, which is crucial, stabilizing in the second quarter with a good exit. So I think that was also one of the key things we tried to emphasize in our release, and that the diversity of our global footprint is very important. Where we are quite agile across our footprint, taking advantage of the markets where there is momentum, we're seeing good market share results with more than half of our markets growing share. And we're also really, as always, focused on the quality of that volume growth, where economy volume was down, but mainstream volume was up in the first half, premium beer was up a bit more, and global brands like Heineken and Heineken and Amstel growing in the mid to high single digits. So that's a little bit of a flavor across our footprint and the quality of the footprint. And indeed, we do expect volumes to be better in the second half compared to the first half.

Yeah. And on your second point as the agility in planning, I think there are three main differences to call out versus prior practice. It starts with all, you know, expect the unexpected. And therefore we are really starting to move from almost like fixed one plan, one execution to really look at different scenarios and also pay attention to things that might happen or might not happen. This could be related to exercise, it could be related to tariffs. So we're taking more variables into account in anticipation. Less rigid planning, therefore, is a first point. The second point to call out is that we have good visibility, as I now repeatedly say, on productivity savings, but they're not all being committed upfront. We hold some in reserve for these scenarios and events that I just talked about. And the third very big important shift that we've made is that we are more agile in resource allocation these days than what it was before. So when people in markets found savings, it was free to spend in that market. And these days we're really looking at, as Dudolf's point, which brands, which markets can we dial up so that, for example, we can invest behind the acceleration in Vietnam if we see some softer markets in Europe, for instance. And that helps with the agility in planning and balancing out both in terms of growth, but certainly also in terms of profit delivery.

Great, thank you.

Our next question comes from Sanjit Ula from UBS. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Hey, afternoon, everyone. A couple from me, please. Adolf, please, can you just give us a little bit more clarity on your volume expectations for Europe in H2? So with the retailer disputes now resolved, is it reasonable to get back to stable or slightly growing volume in the region? And in that context, what have you seen so far in July in Europe, please? My follow up is just again on Europe. Is there something you structurally need to change in terms of how you manage your retailer relationships so as to avoid something like this happening again? And if so, what sort of changes are you making?

Thanks, Sanjit. I know everybody would love to have a very detailed number on volumes in Europe in the second half. For us, the third quarter is going to be key. You all know how important July, August are for Europe. And so we we rather, you know, see through how volumes are responding there. But for sure, the weather has been helping so far. And again, we see that reflected in on trade trends, which are materially better in the first half than our off trade, the off trade being impacted by those retail negotiations. And again, we do expect an improvement, but at this point, out of caution, we refrain from the specificity of a number on the retail negotiations. Over the years, we have seen more and bigger European retail alliance come to report. We have seen increased aggressiveness there. And first, as one of the leaders in FMCG in Europe, it was very important to fight for a couple of key principles. And one principle being retaining and defending our ability to pass on at least a portion of the input cost inflation. And what was in play was negative pricing, which is something that we simply cannot allow for the long term financial health of the sector. And the good thing is, if you look to the first half, even under difficult market circumstances, we're able to deliver one point four percent, one point five percent revenue per hectolitre in the first half. That is absolutely key. And that's why, you know, we decided to fight longer to really make sure that we didn't have to concede on key principles. And by now, all the deals have been concluded. There's nothing open and we are happy with the outcome. And we believe this was something to the benefit of the long term health of the category. Now, there's no guarantee that there is no other disputes down the line. But, you know, this is for the first time in many years that we ended up in this situation. But we were quite deliberate in seeing it through. And again, we believe our revenue back to lead to performance in the first half is proof that we're trying to do this the right way. Thanks. I think that's both your questions, right?

Yeah. Our next question comes from Mitch Collett, Deutsche Bank. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Thanks. Hi, Dolph. Hi, Harold. Can you give us a bit more color on what you're seeing in both Mexico and Brazil, specifically interested in the health of the consumer, health of the category, your market share trends, and I guess what you're doing to improve performance, given what you've said about some headwinds from, you know, within those two regions? I think that's two questions. I'll stop there. Thank you.

Okay, Mitch. Thanks for your question. I'm very happy to see volume being positive in both Mexico and Brazil in the second quarter. Quite important to us. Mexico volume was slightly up, broadly in line with the markets. Positive revenue per hectolitre. So quite pleased with our performance in Mexico. Also in the context of other categories like soft drinks, we did see a softening in the overall markets towards the end of the quarter, but we have been able to navigate as well also with market share gains towards the end of the quarter. So we feel that overall Mexico is in a good place and our strategy with a very broad brand portfolio and a broad channel mix with six as a critical strategic asset is kind of working out as we anticipated. Brazil has been a little bit more volatile for us on the sell in, particularly as markets were growing less fast than we originally anticipated. We're sitting on too much stock. We are recycling the stock up of the price increase in April last year. We had to flush that out in the first quarter, leading to negative sell in volume. Very important and positive in the second quarter. Our sell in volumes bounced back. That is key. And all through the first half, our market share gains in sell out remain positive. Our strategy focusing on premium and mainstream, premium with the Heineken brand and a portfolio of craft brands like Eisenbaum continue to be positive. And we have also installed an absolute pivotal brand in the portfolio, growing in the high single digits, even the low teens. And as such, again, it is all about sticking to our strategy and agile in market execution. And later in the year, our Pasos Brewery is opening, as I said, five million hectolitres. So we're still optimistic about the mid and long term prospects for markets like both Brazil and Mexico for that matter. Thanks, Sergej.

Our next question comes from Olivier Nicolai, Goldman Sachs. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Hi, good afternoon, Dolph, Harold and Tristan. I've got two questions, please. So first of all, volume seems to be accelerating throughout the quarter in many places like Brazil, South Africa and Europe. While you also increase your cost savings targets. So what prevented you today from narrowing or even increasing the guidance at organic a bit level? And secondly, a bit more long term, but on what's the mid term estimate for zero zero penetration in Europe and the US without a VCVs cannibalizing your beer volumes? And could areas like Middle East, for instance, offer some material opportunity for the group on the back of zero zero?

Yes, let me start with the first and of course, the awful happily take the second fully understandable question, Olivier, in terms of this volume progression that we sequentially see and an improved cost savings target. Why is the second half of the year still, you know, not changing the guidance range? I think there are frankly three important factors other than let's call it the more general sentiment that we remain cautious about, as we specifically called in the outlook. The first is that we really see that the terrorists, of course, have a disproportionate impact in quarter two. Sorry, in the second half of the year, first, the first half of the year, where we had a very benign impact, only the fact that they that there was a tariff pause in a way up to April and hardly any terrorists that were really announced. So that is a very big shift between the first half of the year and the second half of the year. The second main factor is that I called previously that we had a number of quite advantageous transactional Forex exchange hedges that were in play both in Mexico and Brazil, and they are rolling off in the second half of the year. That has a significant impact because, as you know, these are large market for us. The third is also a simple small detail, but an important one, and that is the test phasing this year. It falls really into twenty twenty six and we had that comparator in our last year's base. Now, the last remaining point is you will have seen the pricing impact that was taken in Africa this year, and we were basically significantly covered in terms of our raw materials already early on. So we took pricing in line with inflation and and and foreign exchange devaluation. But the replenishment of materials is now at higher value in the second half of the year. So also in Africa, that 100 percent operating profit organic growth will not repeat itself in the second half of the year. I know there are quite a lot of moving parts, but that probably explains why the guidance remains as it is.

Yeah. And again, four to eight percent operating profit guidance. That's something that that we stand by and was important to to reiterate on your question, Olivier, on on zero zero. We really believe this. This is a long term trends. It was ignited back in 2017 with the global launch of Heineken zero zero. We see continued momentum and growth for Heineken zero zero, a key market like the U.S., which is hyper competitive with countless zero zero brands being launched in the year to date under very difficult market circumstances. We we see Heineken zero zero still growing even in the double double digits. In Europe, there's a couple of technical factors that impacted particularly the first quarter. But in the second quarter, globally, we had growth on zero zero, including in Europe. And again, it is deep cultural change in a way that we are investing a lot of marketing in destigmatizing drinking Heineken zero zero in social occasions. That's why we're deploying the whole Formula One platform, including everyone, the movie with Brad Pitt behind this. We see on the upper end of the spectrum, we see markets like the Netherlands and Spain, where 10 percent of beer markets is already zero zero. Germany in the same on the average in Europe, it's five percent. So if only the U.S., Brazil, Mexico and a couple of other markets would just move to the current level of Europe, it would give us tremendous double digit growth for four years to come. As to the cannibalization, we see proof that the majority of this volume is incremental. This is really either lapsed consumers will stop drinking alcohol because of health, age or other factors and will kind of return to the brands. We see existing beer drinkers for which this fulfills new occasions like lunch or a Monday evening, for example. So in the aggregate, it's very healthy. It's very complementing. And it's consents at good market margins. We continue to be the global market leader. And by all means and purposes, we intend to stay the number one. And we keep launching new zero zero propositions across our portfolios globally.

Thank you.

OK.

Our next question comes from Celine Panuti from JP Morgan. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone. My first question is on Europe. I think you mentioned earlier that you expected organic profit to be flat in Europe. Now with H1 being down five percent, what is the outlook for the year? Are you still expecting to be flat? And more broadly, if I look into the midterm, what do you think should be seen as the key driver for profit growth in Europe, which has been pedestrian for a couple of years? My second question is on America. So the few headwinds that you are mentioning in the second half of the year, the effects, the tariff impact, you had a tough comparative in organic profit in the first half. But do you expect any profit growth in the second half of the year in that region? And are you raising prices in Brazil? Thank you.

Do you want

to start?

Yeah, compliment.

So, indeed. So your questions are all related to, let's call it the profitable growth algorithm that we're trying to get in Europe. And I think what Glenn would say is like in order to grow Europe, we have to make sure that we are bringing consumers back into the category through innovation and building fantastic and very strong brands. And that's why it's also important that we keep on investing in the category, both in off trade as well as in on trade. But Dolph explained earlier today, we do that the right way, not by balancing, making sure that the category and the beer category is affordable, but at the same time that we're able to pass on certain levels of price increases so that we remain that we have the ammunition available to us to continue to invest in innovation, like, for example, the Cruz Campo launch in the UK. Now, that all comes with an obligation to drive productivity extremely hard. And this is what we also do. So with a sequential improvement in volumes in Europe, you will also see a sequential improvement in profitability in Europe, whether that lands as before what I said in recovery of profit in Europe to absolutely zero. That I don't know. There is a lot dependent on the volume trajectory, but also important to remain investing in the category. But that is something that we we're aspiring to. The return to better profit is there for a factor of three things. The first is how do we return to growth in Europe, as we just said, with better innovation and better brand building. Secondly, in order to premiumize so that we get positive mix effects and thirdly to drive productivity in order to really see that volume growth and that premium growth coming through through bottom line. That's basically what we're trying to do in Europe over time. A lot happen overnight, but certainly sustainable efforts will be made to get there. On the Americas in the second half profit growth. Yeah, on the second half, as I just indicated, also there, we expect also improvement in the Americas in the second half. Although what will be impacting us is the offset of that is the import tariffs, as well as the favorable hedges that are rolling off. So also there, I think we need to be a bit cautious with profit growth in the Americas in the second half. But there will

be profit growth in the second half. I think what's important to emphasize, because we fully understand the spirit of the questions. It's a full town world and there's a lot of ups and downs across the footprint. What we really try to do is be agile. There are things that we anticipated. There are things that we have not anticipated that we are trying to be very agile responding to. We try to make sure that we keep investing in our brands, that we keep investing in innovation, that we keep investing in capacity and to make sure in the end that across the footprint it works. And again, as such, 0.4 percent volume decline in the second quarter, also in the context of what, for example, soft drinks show, pretty decent. A cost total consolidated volume almost flat, getting revenue per hectolitre in three out of four regions. And we're really trying to leverage the diversity of the footprint to make it work in the aggregate. And that's why we're iterating the 4 to 8 percent is absolutely key. That's the line in the sense. And we will make that work in the aggregate.

Thank you.

Our next question comes from Simon Hales from Citi. Your line is open. Please go ahead. Thank you. Afternoon all.

So just a couple of quick ones, really some follow ups. I mean, just coming back to the Americas and Brazil, specifically Dolph, obviously you mentioned you saw some softness in the market at the end of the quarter. Can you just expand a little bit on what you think was driving that? Is that tariff related, do you think? Is it broad base across price points? Is it just sort of consumer sentiment driven? Any color or any further color there helpful? And then secondly, just on a couple of your smaller markets, obviously the DRC has become more challenging as we've moved through the year. How do we think about how big of a volume negative that was in Q2 and how we should we think about the drag of the problems there into the second half of the year? And at the same time, Cambodia has been a tough market for the last 12 months for you. Are you starting to lap through now some of those tough volume declines we've been seeing there?

Yeah, thank you, Simon. So on the consumer, I think there are two sides to it and not just in Mexico, Brazil, but I think that also applies to the US and to Europe. That on key fundamentals like unemployment as wage increases, disposable income, actually it calls a lot of key markets that looks pretty healthy. It is more on the consumer sentiment that it looks soft. And I think it's a reflection of, you know, everything that's going on politically, geopolitically in and across markets. As such, based on those fundamentals, we remain optimistic for the mid and the long term. And we try to be appropriately cautious in the short term to not be caught out by surprise. And again, it's back to that point of resilience. You mentioned DRC. I would answer that in the aggregate. You know, there's a couple of things that we could not anticipate or did not anticipate. DRC was a negative. The tariffs and the amount of tariffs was something that we didn't anticipate back in January, February. The length of the negotiations lasted longer. But we're really trying to take responsibility and make sure that we find offsets. And as such, delivering 7.4 percent operating profit, even while absorbing those unanticipated negatives. That's exactly the kind of resilient execution that we try to drive across the company. And again, therefore reiterating our profit outlook for the full year.

Got it. Thank

you. Our next question comes from Lawrence Wyatt from Barclays. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Afternoon, everyone. Thanks very much for the questions. The first one on Europe. We've seen quite a big improvement in beer volumes as a sort of share of throw to many European countries. And that's sort of different to a number of other countries where spirits has been taking share, particularly in the USA over the recent decade. What do you think is driving that in Europe? Is there any sort of differences that are happening there that are not happening in the US? Is this sort of a category getting its act together as a very strong branding? Why do you think European beer volumes are doing well taking share of throws? And then secondly, you've had a good performance in Africa this last few quarters. Just wondering of your appetite for inorganic expansion within Africa. If the right asset were to become available, would you take a look at it? Thank you. Thank you, Lawrence.

On Europe, indeed, it's good to see a good momentum on the share of throws. By the way, if you look over the last 10, 20 years, European markets have performed better in that regard compared to the North American markets, where share of throws has been under pressure for at least 20, 25 years in a row. In Europe, we have seen less of that. Partly explained by the Mediterranean markets, which are actually growing significant share of throws against the wine markets. I think coming out of COVID, there was this bounce in spirits, but that has been unwinding now for, let's say, the last 12, 18 months. Also, seeing good relative better performance in the on trade in the year to date, which is positive, and a good exit rate in the on trade in June, also on the back of positive weather. Again, we need to make sure that we see through the impact of these one-off negotiations, which will be gone for the second half of the year. And I think Hubbard also tried to emphasize that through all these twists and turns, we try to stay focused on the essential and the strategic priorities, which is investing in brands, investing in innovations, investing in premium. And low and low are continuously doing better across the global footprint, but also in a market like Europe. You see it reflected in global brands as Feineken and Obstel. So, yeah, we believe that in that dimension, the European markets are a bit more healthy. And again, also the reason why we keep investing in those markets. On Africa, yeah, Africa was extremely beneficial in our footprint during COVID. We easily forget, but in 2021, we had strong performance in these markets while the more mature markets suffered with COVID. Last two years, triggered by these massive devaluations in key markets like Nigeria, Ethiopia, Egypt, those markets suffered. We didn't waste a good crisis and we really intervened on resizing our cost structures, redoing our balance sheets, sharpening our brand portfolios. And so you see on the bounce back, whether it's Nigeria, whether it's Ethiopia, whether Egypt, you see us coming stronger out of the crisis. And as such, we remain long term committed to Africa as also our acquisition of Distel and Namibia breweries exemplified. And those are healthy markets and markets where we want to be in. You know, by asking the question on the inorganic, I can't answer it. But we will always be on the outlook of strengthening our global footprint. We believe that our footprint and its diversity, its balance between developed markets and emerging markets, its balance across regions is a huge strategic asset. And every opportunity of bolt on acquisitions or filling in certain white spaces, we would take a serious look at. Thanks, Lars.

Appreciate it. Thank you.

Our next question comes from Chris Pitcher, Rothschild and Co. Redburn. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Thank you very much, Dolph Harald-Tristan. Can I ask a broader question on how you're managing the business? Because you talk a lot about the agility and you reiterate the four to eight percent operating profit growth for the full year. But earlier to Livia's question, that not changing the guidance means there's probably a 30 percent chance on the outlook that you'll be below four to eight in the second half. And that doesn't sound like to me a business that has the agility to respond to factors like tariffs and currency movements and a TET later phasing, all of which would have been known months and months ago, not in June, July. Should we think of it the four to eight as an annual target and there will be entry year volatility? And as a follow on to that question, part of improving agility is the digital backbone. You mentioned you've you've rolled it out in Rwanda, Serbia and Egypt. I think you said earlier there were 12 markets in train for next year. But in the statement, you said it's not going to be done until 2028. Can you give us a sense of are you doing the big markets now? Is there an urgency to actually get this digital backbone in place to improve that visibility and agility? Or is it is it going to be a more gradual rollout process?

Thanks. Yeah, sure. Sure. I think the first crack at it. And I think it's important to state that we are not managing the business on a very narrow bandwidth on a quarter by quarter business. When we make that statement, it's for the full year outlook. Given our global footprint seasonality, weather impacts, currencies, there's always a twist and turns. And what we want to make sure that in the aggregate for the year, we make it work. And so I don't think in any way, you know, we want to suggest that, you know, on a monthly quarterly, that it all stays within a very narrow bandwidth. We want to make it work, of course. And we feel that this part of agility and leveraging the global footprint on the DBB. Let me leave that one

to you. So indeed, the digital backbone. We're trying to get the balance right between the big markets and ensuring that there is sufficient benefit for the smaller markets as well. Because what we're really trying to do is to bring a digital backbone to life. There are services with different varieties that we have across our business. At the same time, risk management is also a key factor because the operations in Mexico are very different and very different integrated than they are in Brazil or in Vietnam. The trade structures are different. The ways of working are quite different. All of this is what we're trying to converge and we want to do it right. So we do have a mix between a broad portfolio of smaller markets and some larger markets year after year between 26, 27, 28 to make sure that we reap the benefits of scale, but also do the fine tuning so that the smaller markets can also operate. That's how we think about it.

By the way, I'm happy that you mentioned the digital backbone because this is such a strategic and critical project to future-proof the company, especially in a world of AI. It is long overdue, but harmonizing our core processes, data and systems and future-proofing it in a more modular, digital, cloud-based way that's prepared for AI is absolutely key. So I find it personally actually quite exciting that in the next 36 months, across our global footprint, we will be upgrading our systems. And we do it in a way, as Harold said, where we're trying to do it smart, we spread it over time, we spread it over big versus small markets to also mitigate any operational risk. And again, the three first markets give us confidence that we're on the right trajectory. But this is an absolute necessary investment for the future of the company, which will enable both on growth and productivity, let's say next generation of opportunities.

And sorry to clarify, can you just quickly say which of the big markets is going to go first, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, UK? Which are the big markets to go first?

Yeah. So in 26 we'll go, okay. I'm

not sure we should reveal market by market. Sorry. Almost. No, I think that is the prerogative of the executive. And again, we will make sure that from a risk mitigation point of view, we spread those big markets out.

Okay,

thank you very much. Pre

-seed. Our next question comes from Andrea Pistacci from Bank of America. Your line is open. Please go ahead. Yes,

thank you. Thank you very much. I have two questions, please. The first one on Vietnam. So you had strong, strong growth in the half year. You've stepped up investment to support this momentum, you said. Can you talk about the health of the market and the consumer as we go into the second half, given geopolitics there? And is it is a reasonable portion of your growth now actually coming from geographic expansion as you're going into the central region? I asked this because I guess geographic expansion would still be there as a driver, even if the environment were to soften a little. And the second question is on South Africa. Beer back to good growth in Q2. It's been quite volatile in the last 18 months. So you've alternated maybe a couple of difficult quarters for beer with a good one, but then it was tough again. So a bit up and down in terms of market share. So what gives you the confidence that the better performance in beer is more sustainable now? And what will it take to fix the wine and spirits business there?

Yeah. So thanks for the question, Andrea. Vietnam had a very tough 23. Last year, we worked incredibly hard of adapting to new realities, adapting geographically, channel mix, segment mix, cost structure, what have you. First of all, on the markets, the markets already, since the back half of last year, stabilized and then returned to growth. Year to date, we see not only off trade growing, but we also see the on trade market growing. So that's very positive. Even with all the geopolitical challenges, as you say, we have seen that continue in that context. Also good to see that Vietnam was one of the first countries to strike a deal with the U.S., providing stability and clarity on our relative performance. I think we are really adapting our portfolio, but also leveraging the strength of the breadth of our portfolio. Most of our competitors are single or dual brands operators, and we are having multiple brands across multiple price segments. Brand Heineken is absolutely on fire since the launch of Heineken Silver back in 2019. It is now the number three market globally for Brand Heineken, larger than the U.S. as an example. It is number three behind Brazil and China is still growing in the teams. We're seeing the Tiger brand slowly but surely stabilizing. We're seeing good growth on the mainstream portfolio, particularly with the line extension called La Rue Smooth. So I think across premium mainstream different brands, we have been rebalancing. The market has been adapting to a new balance between on trade and off trade, which we have been navigating quite successfully. And indeed, there are still in certain geographies, especially towards the north, still a lot of opportunity for us. So across those dimensions, I think it's a good example of agile execution and also agile responding and adapting to a new market circumstances. And I think that we are by far the largest share-payer in the year. We do see it from a consumer and market dynamic, pretty positive and stable for the second half of the year, stable in sentiment, positive in volume, with only that caveat on cycling the TET loading of last year. But underlying feeling pretty good. Do you want to take South Africa?

Sure. So Heineken beverages, right. Very, very still comfortable and very, very optimistic about the long term prospects of Heineken beverages. And we see that already coming through in some of the markets like Heineken beverages, international doing extremely well across different parts of the portfolio. Namibia, very, very strong performance this half year. And then on to South Africa, where your question is, do we believe that we are now confident in the stabilization of beer? You really see that we have worked or the South African team has worked extremely hard in getting the brand propositions right. Amstel is now in growth. The Heineken returnable bottle is really doing extremely well. And that has led to a stabilization of market share in close collaboration, I would say, with our customers, because we have really stepped up in terms of customer business partnering, in terms of really making sure that outlet execution is a really high priority for us. So we believe that in quarter two is the first signal of step by step improvement. And that is also how we talk about it. We don't want to declare victory overnight. We know that this is a super competitive market, but we do believe we've got the fundamentals now in place to continue this step by step improvement. By the way, Bernini, our drink is doing phenomenally well. So also we shouldn't lose sight of the fact that this is a multi beverage company and this multi beverage company can really innovate as well as we see with Bernini, which is a real growth driver for us and hopefully able to expand to some other markets. Your specific question on wine, it's a very competitive category. And we know that in the first quarter of this year, we got the price break mix architecture and pricing boom. We're in the process of adjusting that. And we already see a much improved performance in quarter two, but not yet where we need it to be. So that will take a bit longer to adjust.

Got it. Thank you.

And so do I.

Our next question will be the final one for today's call. And it comes from Trevor Sterling from Bernstein. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Afternoon, everyone. Two questions on my side. The big questions have been answered, so hopefully you're still valuable. I've told from the house and treat in Brazil, you're the weak volumes from the the de-stocking in the churnal, but also in negative price makes all the fairly modest negative price makes maybe we just give us a little more color about what's going on in Brazil and what the underlying dynamics are there. And then the second one, probably for Harold, Harold, you've mentioned about the Pasos Brewery coming on stream, Yucatan, not far away as well. Does that mean we're likely to see a big step in step up in DNA in the second half in the Americas and a little bit of pressure on margins in the Americas coming from that?

Yeah, on on Brazil, indeed, as you note, Trevor, a difference between sell in volume performance in the half year versus sell out on the sell out. We are pretty happy with with ongoing and consistent market share gains driven by Heineken, Amstel and the rest of the portfolio on the sell in. Indeed, we had to take out stock and also in the channel and customer mix have to make some adjustments in the first quarter that has been done. And again, we saw volume bounce back in the second quarter on the sell in, which is good and healthy to see on the revenue per hectiliter. Indeed, we took pricing up last year in April, but candidly, we burned our fingers as we were left hanging out last year. So now we have done it in July, which is confirmed. We have taken up pricing in July in the mid single digits. So in the remainder of the year, you will see a positive revenue per hectiliter Brazil as it should be.

And on on the questions of the of the new breweries, well, passers will go live with third brews in quarter three this year. But the Yucatan brewery will take a bit longer because that's that's under construction as we speak. So indeed, we will expect some elevated levels of depreciation, amortization in the Americas, but manageable in that context. So I wouldn't I wouldn't want to overemphasize that point, Trevor.

Perfect. Thank you very much,

Dov van Harf.

Thank you, Trevor. And I think we're coming to an end. Thanks for all your questions. Again, we were happy with solid profit delivery in the first half. We're happy to reiterate our profit outlook for the year. We're working hard to keep investing in growth, keep building those important markets, platforms like India, Ethiopia, South Africa, Vietnam, Brazil, Mexico. And we're looking forward to see you all in Sevilla in October at the Capital Market event to further update you on progress and plans. And other than that, wishing you all a lovely summer. All the best.