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Harvia Oyj
11/6/2025
Hello, everyone, and welcome to Harvia's third quarter 25 earnings webcast. My name is Mattias Järenfelt. I am the CEO of the company. And with me, I have Ari Vesterinen, our chief financial officer. Hello. I will first start by taking you through the highlights of quarter three in terms of business and financial performance. And I will also talk a bit about our strategy implementation. After that, Ari will continue and will shed more detail on our financial performance and numbers, after which we are very happy to get your questions. So let's start and summarize quarter three. This time, it actually is very easy. We can summarize even with just one number, 19. So 19% top line growth at 19% adjusted EBIT margin. So essentially, when we talk about the top line, we delivered 46 million euros, and that's a set 19% growth versus the comparison period. In terms of comparable exchange rates, that's 22% growth from last year. Organic growth was solid double digit at 16%. We're very pleased that the growth was broad-based. Essentially, we had double-digit growth across all of our four geographical sales regions. And this despite the fact that, of course, this year has been rather volatile in terms of the macro environment. We had modest quarter two in North America, now returning to a solid double-digit growth. That's, of course, something we are very pleased with. APEC and MEA continued very strong double-digit growth, and we're also very happy that Europe, that has been on the slower momentum for now past couple of years, returned to double-digit growth as well. Our adjusted operating profit was 8.8 million euros, and that represents 19% of our revenue. And that's an improvement from quarter two when we had 17% margin, while it's still slightly below our long-term target. The operating profit margin was impacted by the gross margin, and in particular, higher cost of goods sold due to tariffs and currency exchange rates. This specifically refers to our heating equipment business, where we make the products mainly in Europe, and then when we sell them in the United States, they are sold in USDs, and of course the increased tariffs also apply. Also, we've been increasing our operating expenses as we continue to build a foundation for long-term success in areas such as product development, brand building, channel expansion, and operational efficiency. If you think about the year-to-date performance, it could be summarized as 17-20. So 17% top-line growth at 20% operating profit margin. And looking ahead, we remain focused on executing our strategy and building the foundation for long term success. And at the same time, we are focused on also delivering strong results in the short term. In the near term, our key focus areas include commercial excellence. That includes topics like driving growth and driving pricing in this volatile environment. Also sourcing and operational excellence to manage the materials cost. and also prudent OPEX management. But it is very clear, this is extremely attractive market that's supported by strong long-term growth drivers, and Harvey is extremely well positioned to continue to lead this market and deliver significant growth. Here are the key figures for quarter three. Revenue at 46 million euros, and that's 19% growth. Organic 16 and a comparable exchange rate, that's 22%. Adjusting operating profit margin at 8.8 million, and that's 19% of our revenue. Operating free cash flow in this quarter was minus 600 000 euros and there's two reasons to this. One is that historically quarter three is our lowest cash generating quarter and the reason for that is that during the quarter three we are building products to sell during the high winter selling season. Also we do believe in the long-term growth and success of Harvia. And that's why we're also investing in the platform to grow. So we've been making quite significant investments compared to our investment history in improving our operational efficiency and also building capacity to grow. So last year we bought land around our West Virginia factory in the United States, and we have started to develop the site. And that's just one example of what is going on in our business. In terms of the first nine months of the year, revenue at 145 million euros, and that's 16% growth versus last year, and organic growth at solid double-digit 11%. Growth at comparable exchange rate at 18%. Adjusted operating profit very close to that 20% mark at 19.7%, and operating free cash flow for the first nine months, positive 13 million. As I opened, I mentioned that we are really pleased that we delivered strong broad-based growth during this quarter. So all of the regions grew double-digit. The highest growth rates continued to be outside Europe and also in terms of absolute contribution, North America and APEC contributed the most. But as I said, we are very pleased that now we also saw Europe playing strong and delivering double-digit growth in both of the European sales regions. When we look at Northern Europe, the region grew by 15%. And that's a significant momentum change after a tough three years. And during quarter three, North Europe represented 24% of our total revenue. Where did this momentum come from? We had strong performance in Sweden in particular, and there that momentum has been built through channel expansion and development and also I personally believe that here there's some impact from the excitement that KAI and Eurovision created around sauna in Scandinavia during the first half of the year. And now we see that realizing in our numbers. Also, Baltic countries delivered strong growth. I'm also very pleased that Finland, that has been also struggling already quite some time, actually turned back to growth. And here our focus is to continue on a positive path and really build foundations for sustainable, steady growth for the years to come. Continental Europe grew by 10%, and that's on top of 8% growth a year ago in the comparison period. And I think that tells a story about continued solid progress in the market. So essentially not just a temporary swing, but there is now already a longer trend where we see continental Europe strengthening. If we look at continental European growth, Markets, sub-markets, we have many very strongly performing countries there. For example, United Kingdom, Spain, countries in Eastern Europe like Poland. North America returned to double-digit growth after the modest quarter two. And essentially, our revenue grew by 24%. And the region represents now 36% of our total revenue. If you look at the comparison period and exchange rates, the dollar is now around 6% weaker than a year ago. So give and take at constant currencies, North America would have grown around 30%. In terms of organic growth and inorganic growth in North America, I'd like to note that the Thermasol company we acquired in the summer of 24 has been fully consolidated in our numbers since August 24. So essentially it contributes to inorganic growth for Harvia Group only for the month of July. So August and September this year have already are already part of organic growth and majority of revenue growth in North America clearly came from organic development. I'd also like to highlight a piece of news that came after quarter three was closed, and that is that we have appointed new president of Harvia North America and region head, Nathan Hagemaier. We had a thorough process to find the best possible person to take the lead of this crucially important region for us. And Nathan brings wealth of experience in selling technical products to residential and commercial facilities in a multi-channel sales environment that resembles largely the sales setup that we have in Harvia. in the US. And also, I think there's a strong culture fit, something that we also value a lot. And I'm extremely pleased that Nathan accepted our offer and has already started actually since Monday this week in his new role. APAC and Middle Eastern Africa is continuing on its strong growth path. And you can see here the comparison figures from 22 through 25. This region is really picking up momentum. And also in terms of just absolute size, representing now 12% of our total revenue, it is a significant part of our business. And what we're also very pleased with is that APAC... when it was smaller, it was more volatile and prone to, for example, individual product deliveries. But when we look at the numbers now, the growth is broad based and we feel that the growth is on a strong platform in APAC and Middle East. Now looking at the portfolio view, we continue strong performance in our core of technical equipment for sauna and spa. And you can see that heating equipment represented 56% of our top line during the quarter three. We also are having strong momentum in other areas, but heating equipment just grew so fast that the relative shares of some of the other parts of our portfolio didn't develop. Now, if we look at the growth bridge for quarter three by product category, you can see that the biggest absolute contribution, nearly 5 million came from heating equipment, and that's 23% growth, but also solid double-digit growth in many other parts of our portfolio. And this is also something we are very pleased about. Now then let's talk a little bit about our strategy. Harvia is playing in a very interesting market. We are world leader in a market that has strong growth drivers that we believe have sustainability over a long time. And we want to be a proactive leader and leader that shapes the market and excites the market. And our strategy is based on four focus pillars that respond to questions what, where, to whom and how. So what delivering the Fulsana experience about product leadership and portfolio leadership. Where it's about winning the right markets that matter the most. To whom is having the leading channels and brands in this business and how it relates to our operational excellence and competencies and people. And I'd like to mention a few things, how we've been executing our strategy during quarter three. In terms of delivering the full sauna experience of product and portfolio leadership, I'm very pleased that we have a strong core and strong core helps us to build also the future. So when you look at the heating equipment performance, you could see that it is really going from strength to strength. At the same time, we are clearly upping the game in terms of innovation and differentiation. And in the following slides, I will share some of the examples of new products that we brought to the market or launched. In terms of winning in the markets that matter the most, North America, of course, we are very pleased that it's back on strong growth trajectory and looking at the first nine months, North America is really performing very strong. Also, APAC is performing extremely strong and we are continuing systematic activities to drive growth across key markets and making sure that we're not too dependent on any single market in that region. I'm also very pleased that in terms of Europe, tenacious and systematic work that we've been putting in place over the last couple of years is really starting to bear fruit. So having both regions now in double its growth is something that does help us in our strategic and growth journey a lot. in terms of leading the key channels we at the same time want to deepen and grow our partnerships with the existing and traditional customers that's mass volume merchants and also dealer channel we want to be the best partner at the same time we want to build an even stronger direct to consumer channel and i would encourage you to go and visit our almostheaven.com site and Thermasol.com site so you'll see the level of excellence that we've been able to build during the past 12 months on our direct-to-consumer channels. In terms of best-in-class operations and great people, we are continuing to invest in the heart of our competitive advantage, which is operational excellence. So we've been investing, for example, in energy efficient and new coating system for Dridorf that provides cost benefits and also efficiencies. We are investing in our Lewisburg site in West Virginia, in particular in anticipation of driving a significant and ambitious growth strategy in that region. We are also investing in our group IT, so streamlining, bringing common platforms and bringing more simplified and modern platforms for us. And that's also a very important enabler for us to keep scaling this business up. And now a few highlights from our innovation pipeline. So we have now started the sales of Harvia Phoenix, which is a new full touch control unit for volume segment. I think it's really the leading product in this category. Exciting 4.3 inch full touch screen product. It's very easy to use with, for example, ready-made presets like mild, cozy and hot. It's smart, so actually it learns about your sauna, so it knows how fast the sauna heats up. So instead of programming your heater to start heating, for example, 30 minutes before you want to go to sauna, actually the sauna knows how long it takes to heat up your sauna. So you can just easily put that, I want to go to sauna at... 3 p.m. and the sauna will be ready, making it very easy for you and also saving energy. What's really cool about it, it's Wi-Fi enabled and it's over the air updatable, so we can keep updating the software and providing even more functionality over the lifecycle of the product. And in addition to being able to sell it with new heaters, we can actually sell it to significant installed base of saunas already out there, since it's backwards compatible with a huge seller, Harvia Xenio control panel. So really exciting product that we are very happy about. Another example is our new My Harvia smartphone app, and definitely the most advanced sauna app there. It very nicely aligns the user experience with Harvia Phoenix. It's modern, consistent. Again, a lot of features functionally to help you get most out of your sauna, including over-the-air updates. And for commercial users, ability to control multiple saunas from the same app and interface. We've also been working on the Harvia Cloud platform in the background, so really making us ready for the future. Now, in the United States, we've been playing mostly when we talk about ready-made saunas in the more like entry level through almost heaven saunas in price points from $5,000 to $10,000. And with Thermasol brand, we are now attacking the high end much more aggressively in the past. So we've introduced a range of really exciting three new models for the premium sauna category in price points from $30,000 to $35,000. And the response to this introduction has been very, very strong. So very much looking forward to what we can do in terms of delivering results in the coming quarters and years with this strength and play in the high end. And one highlight is that we actually got a prestigious recognition as Time magazine selected Harvia Group solar power sauna as one of the best inventions in 2025. And this is quite unique product. So it's basically electric heater powered product, but designed so that it actually can be very efficiently and conveniently run with solar power. So really providing full freedom from electrical grids and very sustainable solution. Again, a highlight of what Harvia can do. And then final slide before handing over to Ari. This is just an example of how we also continue to build other group brands like EOS, our high-end brand for technical equipment. AUFCUS World Championships were held end of the summer in Italy. And in the center of the picture, you can see an example of what kind of products we can deliver. So that's an EOS event heater. And that was really exciting to see us as the centerpiece of such an event. Maybe another event to mention, Osaka World Expo was running six months during this year with over 20 million visitors. And essentially, Harvia was... part of sauna experience site there, which run for six months and it was fully booked seven days a week, full day for six months. Really shows the power of sauna and what we can do to excite the market. So with that, I would hand over to Ari.
Okay, thank you. So when we now compare the quarters, actually the quarter three was great. We had a very clear growth path and the profitability level in absolute money stayed basically on the same level as a year ago, but the percentage is lower. And one thing what is here important to note, almost all financial metrics in the profit and loss statement improved in Q3, except the use of materials and external external services and this this measure is not always the same from quarter to quarter it depends on the promotions and product mix and so forth and frankly speaking we had a very good year last year we had that percentage only about 30%, and now we had 37% of the quarterly revenues, but this 37% is actually very close to our average, which has been in the past about 35% of the of the total sales. So I'm personally not worried about this percentage at all. It just requires certain price management with which we have been working. And as said, the quarters are not always alike. Here we see the most important financials, the key figures for the review period. Okay, we have already seen the profitability and growth rates, but probably some highlights to note. The earnings per share increased about 12% now. The operating free cash flow Okay, it is now lower than a year ago and it's because of the growth investments we have also in not working capital and in capex. And that's visible on the line investments in tangible and intangible assets. This year is exceptionally high investment year. We are investing for the growth. Net debt stayed more or less on the same level as a year ago, and leverage also. Networking capital has been growing. Also, our number of employees has grown, but only about 8% when we have grown 19% in the sales. So the effectiveness of the staff and the organization has improved. Here we see the operating free cash flow and cash conversion over the quarters. And what is very typical for Harvia is the seasonality. We have the lowest cash flow usually in Q3 and then the highest usually in Q4. So that has been at least the pattern in the past. And the reason is simply that we have been making products to our stock during Q3. And the biggest sales seasons in North America, in Central Europe and many other areas, the biggest sales seasons are actually in Q3. Q4 and Q1. So we are well prepared for the Q4 sales season and that's demanding some investments in advance. The leverage has been staying on a rather low level, 1.4, as at the end of Q2. And in our long-term financial targets, we would like to stay under the level of 2.5, but in the case of acquisition or so, we could temporarily also exceed it. But as you see, we have a very healthy balance sheet situation in terms of debt. The net financial items, no big changes now there. We had quite steady environment now during Q3 with US dollar and also the interest and interest rate swaps. They helped also to keep the interest rates quite steady. So actually the effective interest rates or interest costs, financial costs to be paid out followed very much to accrued balance sheet related costs. Here we see how the investments levels have increased during Q3. And I'm personally not expecting as high level for Q4 anymore. But this year 25 is somewhat over the historical average level of investments. And the investments, they are really, really... required and they have a quite short payback time and they improve our operational efficiency also in the near term. Okay, the Harvia's long-term financial targets, just to repeat, they haven't changed anywhere. They have been quite a while on the same level since last Capital Markets Day, two years ago, a year and a half. The average annual growth rate over 10%, profitability adjusted operating profit margin over 20%, and leverage, as mentioned already earlier, under 2.5 percent. Harvia pays twice a year dividends and now the second dividend installment was paid out October 28th this fall. So now there is time for questions, please. I have actually got a few questions here in the tablet and most of them are business related, also some financing questions. So I start to ask two questions from Mattias first. Is there an effect of pre-buying ahead of announced price increases in your strong US sales growth in Q3?
Maybe I would take you back to three months ago when we talked about our Q2. And I understand the Q2 results were a bit of a disappointment to the market, in particular what comes to the modest performance of North America during that quarter. But at that time, what I told you, I said that look at quarter one and quarter two in combination, because there were clear kind of shifts between quarter one, quarter two, in particular in the comparison period from 24. And when we look at them, the performance in North America, now quarter three, it's actually a logical continuation of the first half. Another thing that I did mention during that earnings call was that we saw quarter two in North America more modest in the earlier part of the quarter, but we saw signs of improvement as the quarter progressed. So essentially, I would say that this is a logical continuation of the performance already from a longer period of time. Maybe, however, I'd like to make a one brief comment, which is related to quarter four last year. And that's, of course, relevant for the baseline now in the quarter that we are now living in, quarter four this year. And that, of course, is that we had a very strong top line growth last year, overall 28 percent growth in quarter four last year and 63 percent growth coming from North America, which had a significant portion of rather low margin campaign sales. So maybe that's something to take into account as you assess Harvia's near term outlook. But all in all, we see strong performance, continued performance in North America, despite all the noise in the market. And despite that, the consumer confidence generally on the macro level, we've seen, of course, taking a hit. But what comes to interest in our category, we seem to be in a good place.
There is actually quite a close question to that. What is your strategy ahead of campaign heavy Q4 in terms of inventory levels and pricing?
Well, first of all, the plan is to participate in campaigns. Campaigns are a significant part of many of our partners' business model. So when we think about, in particular, large volume retailers, typically they want to have something exciting to offer to their customers during the high selling season, for example, Black Friday, Cyber Monday. and we have a choice either we participate or we don't participate and for us it is clear we want to keep developing these partnerships we want them to be win-win for both we feel that there's great opportunities for us but of course we've also reflected the outcome of quarter four last year and always try to learn from from the past experiences in terms of Building the inventory, that's also visible in the cash flow. It is very clear that we have been building inventory to be able to deliver and sell during quarter four and quarter one. And I think it's also a sign of confidence that we in the management have for the business.
Then one question, actually, you shortly mentioned it, but I ask this anyhow. Can you please tell more? What is the hero behind the premium range launched under Thermosol brand?
The Thermosol saunas that we launched will be equipped with EOS heaters. So if you think about our premium brands, we practically have two of them. We have the German based EOS that we have had in our portfolio since 2020 and Thermosol high end brand for the steam and kind of home spas in North America that we acquired last year. In the US, Thermosol is clearly more well-known brand versus EOS. So While Thermosol has great channel access to high end spas and high end commercial facilities, we feel it's a great opportunity for us to piggyback with EOS on that. So essentially the idea is that what comes to steam products and then the kind of full sauna solutions in North America, they are branded Thermosol. But what comes to the heating equipment, it's powered by EOS. So Thermosol powered by EOS.
Can you specify the investments in the efficiency you made in Q3? What segments and regions?
Well, the investments are rather broad based. So one of the examples we pointed out was the EOS factory that's located in Dridorf, close to Frankfurt. We made quite significant investments there. Another example I did mention as part of my presentation, we bought land around our West Virginia factory in anticipation of building options to grow and now we are taking action so there is already works the ground works ongoing on the site and we are expanding the facility as we continue to see significant growth opportunities for us for years to come in that region then more more finance related question what was the forex impact on sales level in north america
I am after the euro-USD exchange rate you used in Q3-25. The exchange rates we use for our P&L, they are the average rates from Bank of Finland. And for this quarter, we used exact average. It was 1.168 dollars per share. And a year ago it was about 1.10. So actually the dollar was about 6% weaker than a year ago during this quarter. And as we saw from the pictures already in the presentation, we were way over 20% of the growth. in Northern America, and in terms of US dollar, it was about 30%. Is EMEA growth more one-off or new projects already coming after current project delivers? EMEA, so is that Europe? Well, let's consider the whole area, APEC, EMEA.
Okay, APEC in Middle East and Africa, okay, sure. It used to be much more volatile. And of course, when the scale of the APAC Middle East and Africa business was smaller, it was quite easily swung either direction by single large orders, for example, significant project deliveries. But over the past few years, our key goal has been to develop the region in a sense that it really provides not only growth opportunities, but also on a stable ground. So diversify the kind of outreach that we have in the region. And when we look at the quarter three in terms of the markets and countries that delivered to that regional performance, it is widespread. And that's a very good thing for Harvia. So we saw significant growth in countries like Japan, China, Oceania, Australia, and also strong performance in MEA. So it's not like something really stood out and kind of made the whole thing happen. It really is broad-based growth. And there's always some project deliveries in Middle East, in particular. That is more a project-based business. But I would consider it almost something that is very... part of the business we do in that part of the world. And there wasn't any particular outliers in terms of, for example, project business impacting out quarter three. So all in all, I would assess it as a solid broad based performance.
There is really a great interest for sauna, a growing interest in wealthier Arabic countries and certainly some business to come also in future. So it was really not a one-off even in those areas. The new Phoenix control and app, is that an opportunity for installed base? Does it give modernization demand?
This is exactly the thinking we have. So I think in the sweet spot of innovation, we have something that excites the market and we can sell with the new products, but at the same time provides us an opportunity to tap into the existing Harvia installed base. And if you think about the kind of strategic rationale of how we see Harvia in the long term, it is very important for us now to be a winner as the market goes through a significant growth phase. So have more Harvia products and saunas out there in the world. And the way we think about it is that we want to make it easy for customers to get into the Harvia world. And once they are in the Harvia world, they want to stay. And one of the examples is that if you have already Harvia sauna, where you have that Xenio kind of mid-range control panel, it works perfectly with the new Fenix. There's no need to renew, for example, the wirings. That's an exciting opportunity for us to reach out to senior owners and basically send a message that there's an exciting innovation. Do you want to upgrade your sauna experience and modernize it with now this full touch smart control that Harvia Fenix is? So the idea is that as we basically sell products and new products. We also want to build the foundation for Recorder revenue and loyalty for the long run.
Okay, now there is a series of three U.S.-related, more or less U.S.-related questions. So let's start. What is your best estimate on your performance relative to competition in the U.S.? Is part of the cross-marching pressure attributable to increased price competition or merely by the impact of tariffs?
So around 30% growth after nine months in the US. I think it's a solid performance. The market continues to grow. I believe that we have taken share. So that's one perspective to it. On the kind of pricing competition side, I think it's more related to inertia in having price increases effective. that then truly reflect the changes in the cost of doing business due to tariffs and, for example, exchange rate changes that happen actually pretty rapidly. If you think about the dollar depreciation, it really started to happen actually towards the end of quarter one. Then quarter two was significant rapid deterioration and then more stabilizing during the quarter three. And then, of course, the tariff increases. We used to have tariffs of around 4% for our heaters that we make in Europe and sell in North America. And essentially, with that 15% general tariffs plus extra tariffs on the steel. part of the product we talk about a little bit above 20%. So it's also quite significant impact in terms of that hardware business from Europe. We have implemented already pricing change, but it's also a little bit of a balancing act that, you know, what's the right strategy and right pace? Because at the same time, we want to keep growing, want to keep our customer relationships strong. But of course, we also need the appropriate compensation for the great products that we make. So ultimately, this sort of margin dynamics, I think, is more related to just the macro factors, the exchange rate and tariffs, rather than there would have been significant intensification of competitive landscape.
Do you expect that the price increases implemented to counter tariffs will be fully visible in Q4, thus supporting margins?
Well, long story short is that I think, of course, price increase are always supportive. There's maybe kind of one area of uncertainty, which is basically kind of financing rules. So basically, to a degree, we've still been selling some products that were imported to the market before the tariffs took effect. And basically, it's first in, first out principle. So, of course, we have been modeling also the kind of what's the full impact of the tariffs as we will transition in the situation where practically 100% of the products will be having a tariff attached to them. But all in all, I'm confident in the work that we have been doing. Significant effort has been put in pricing analytics and assessing the situation and agreeing and implementing the right course of action.
How do you aim to improve your margin performance in Q4 in the US versus last year, when aggressive campaigns heavily diluted your margins?
Less aggressive campaigns. That's maybe a little bit of a kind of tongue in the cheek, but there is some truth to it. That's, of course, for sure. There's many things. So generally, general price increases that we have been implementing and they have been also coming in force step by step. So we basically built a more like a transition path. It's not yet in full effect, but it's already partially in effect. it's about also being smart in terms of what kind of campaigns and campaign pricing not only with the kind of ikea accounts we have but also what do we have available in our direct to consumer which is the fastest channel where our pricing decisions can basically be affecting the price the next minute and most likely you would see a little bit less aggressive campaigns but still good campaigns because at the same time we want to continue to drive top line growth and we want to continue to take share in this growing market to place us very strongly in terms of Harvia products out there, building the install base and building the brand leadership for years to come.
If there is a retrofit demand, perhaps you talk about ASP for such an upgrade, average sales price.
Yeah, I think, you know, that's a great comment and something that we are increasingly focused on. So while we are driving growth and volume growth and, as I said, building the install base, it is very clear that in our minds there's also the long-term future where hopefully there will be essentially millions of products and saunas where we can sell more continuously. In terms of kind of metrics that we would be reporting like ASPs and ASPs by product category, that's something that we haven't done so far. But the idea, of course, behind that question is a very good one.
Just to remind, in the more traditional sauna areas, 70 to 80 percent of our total revenues is actually replacement revenue. People are buying new saunas to their old place or replacing the heaters. And actually our sweetpot of heater sales is the second heater for the same sauna. When the construction company has selected the cheapest heater, Harvia heater usually for the new sauna and after a couple of years or probably five six years the user of the sauna wants to have a better one and that's the most interesting heater for us with more equipment and features and also with higher margins.
And maybe I could also continue on your very good answer and just, you know, examples of this sort of, you know, building recurring business on the install base. One example is, of course, now Phoenix, where we can actually through OTA over the air updates actually sell new features during the lifecycle of the product. And then, of course, we are looking at basically these control panels are becoming fully connected interfaces in the wellness oasis that sauna is. What kind of, for example, digital services in the coming years we can offer that could also provide direct service revenue that would be high margin and scalable.
You discussed already earlier about that we make probably not so strong campaigns, but we make campaigns during Q4. Now the follow-up question to that. Shall we expect negative organic growth for North America for Q4?
I will leave that to your Excel exercise. We of course always want to see positive figures and we have a high ambition level. And then, as you know, we don't give short-term guidance. So that's something that you will need to assess.
Okay. Your capex has been now somewhat elevated both in 2024 and 2025. Is this higher capex expected to continue in 2026 or should it decline? Our estimate is currently that it will decline a little compared to this 25, but we don't give more exact figures for that. Okay, when are you able to offset the tariff impact with price increases? That was more or less already discussed a little. By the way, the tariff impact for completely sauna cabin set in US for us is actually not so heavy. because the saunas are produced there in Northern America and from local wood with local work power. So only the heater, which is coming from Finland, it has max up to 20% impact tariff for the landed cost, but it makes from the total price of the package only about 10%, 10 to 15%. So the impact of the tariffs for the complete sauna cabin, which we are mostly selling there, is only about 2%. And with our pricing power, we should really be able to increase that 2% or somehow otherwise compensate. Biggest impact of the tariffs are for importers who are importing only the heaters for their saunas and for the distribution. And we have that kind of customers also in US who are actually paying the import tariffs by themselves.
And maybe to also build on what Are said, we of course are in close discussions with our key customers and some of them have also big companies, public listed companies making statements also in terms of the development on the pricing of the merchandise that they buy from suppliers from the Far East. And I think it is clear that there is kind of this dynamic that the inventory that many companies have in the U.S. to a degree has been imported before the tariffs took place. And now more and more companies are really kind of the backs against the wall implementing the price increases. Essentially, I would say as my personal assessment that we have not fully yet seen the pricing increase impact of the tariffs that are currently in force and finding that new equilibrium in the market will take probably another six months.
From some of my personal channel checks in Europe, it seems that the winter selling season has started earlier than normal. Several distributors told me that Harvia's sales have been accelerated notably throughout the summer and since October. Would you like to comment on that?
Well, I can comment. Actually, I'll take you again back to three months ago when we were talking about quarter two. And actually, usually I don't talk about weather. as an excuse, but actually three months ago, I did mention that and I did mention it in particular in relation to our Northern European performance. So in Northern Europe, we had basically vacation house sauna season, so-called cottage season is very important for us. But in North Europe, we had a very poor beginning of the spring and beginning of the summer. And the weather was significantly better in July. And that's what I also mentioned. So I would say that the quarter three that you now see, it's actually a little bit, there's this dynamics from the season. Actually, the spring season started a bit later just due to the weather.
The same is true for US when looking at recent momentum on Costco and Wayfair. Most importantly, customers are increasingly mentioning that Harvia has been the best value for money. Thank you. Not working for us, this asker. Somehow this feels like a COVID-19 2.0 light as consumers are staying more at home. Meanwhile, We are coming out of a period of subdued home improvement, which has started to pick up again, also benefiting Harvia in mature regions. Does this match to your view?
Well, I think there's a bit of different dynamics between how much are we in wellness business and how much are we in home improvement business, depending on the region. So, for example, in Finland, it's very clear that sauna has close connection to the property market, the new build construction, just for the simple reason that saunas are in such a big majority of houses, apartments and summer cottages. So there is that sort of correlation. Whereas in regions where the sauna density is much lower, the Kielite Dynamics is much more about buying a wellness product. And sauna is like a miracle wellness oasis. Sauna has significant health and wellness benefits. And it's unique since you can get those health and wellness benefits in such a pleasant way. And this combination, it does great for you and it feels great. Story resonates extremely well, almost no matter what the economic times are. And personally, I'm a strong believer of this sauna as a perfect wellness oasis and the strength of the story for years to come.
During their conference call in September, Costco's CEO said they would radically reshuffle their holidays offering. For the first time, they will also bring in saunas in store. for which they didn't have enough space previously. Does this impact Harvia, given that COSTCO members are now limited to shopping almost heaven saunas product online? Does it imply that COSTCO will carry saunas in its own inventory and thus impact Q4 and future performance?
Well, I wouldn't comment too much on the CEO of another company, but of course, you know, we have taken a note and we have a longstanding relationship with Costco. And the growth ambition of Harva is to grow each of our accounts So we want to keep developing Costco, and we see significant growth opportunities. We also want to have more of the big box retailers as part of our partnership network. We want to grow in the dealer channel where we can sell more premium products like the Thermosol saunas, which require, for example, installation support for the end user. And we see significant opportunity also in our D2C with a portfolio that's tailored for D2C so that all channels can grow without cannibalizing each other. And of course, as we know about the comment made, and it's an example of actually, in a sense, in this sort of big macro picture, the tariffs most likely are a bit of a negative thing, but they do also change the supply chains and competitive landscapes. And one example is that, of course, Harvia makes majority of our products inside the United States. So we are not fully insulated from tariffs as discussed, but we are better insulated than most of our direct competitors. But there's also this competition between categories in big channels. And essentially, we know that many companies like the one mentioned and others have seen significant price increases in particular products that have been imported from the Far East and making reassessment of their commercial potential in their channels and also, for example, for the kind of sales season campaigns. And this is something we have now seen that actually category like sauna that seems to be resisting very well kind of the macro environment because the story of the category is so strong and partner like Harvia that can produce good value and much of that value created in the United States are in great position.
Looking at the strong growth in heating equipment. Harvia's got more than 20% market share. No matter how you look at it, it can't be coming solely from new build or replacement at your existing customers. You must be converting non-Harvia customers into Harvia customers, coupled with upselling. The price difference between a digital control versus a basic heater. Can you comment on the drivers behind the strong growth in heating equipment?
Well, on one hand, the whole sauna category is growing. And many saunas in the world are powered by Harvia. And if we think about just putting things in scale with Harvia, we talk about Harvia making, we make clearly more than 200,000 heaters per year and give and take maybe 20,000 sauna cabins. And practically, that means that we have 10x more volumes in the heaters. And that, of course, tells the story that many saunas which have been provided, maybe custom made on site or maybe provided by some other sauna cabin providers, actually use Harvia. And the reason is very clear. We have excellent products and we provide great value for money, but we also are very good at designing the products so that the market wants them and we have efficiencies in production. So that, of course, leads leaves good margins margins for us but but ultimately this is the dynamics we we want to keep growing in in the equipment business we see significant opportunities and in terms of volume in order of magnitude it's it's significantly larger than the cabin business at the moment but at the same time we want to sell these full solutions because it does help us tap into much bigger spend potential in in the key markets so these sauna and and heating equipment do complement each other and i think we are well placed in both of them
Looking at your LinkedIn pages, recruitment has ticked up quite a bit at Thermasol and almost Heaven Saunas over the past two, four weeks. This matches the early indicators that sauna demand is already a lot higher versus previous year. Notably, it comes at the time of the shutdown. Here is the government shutdown meant. Are you impacted by the current shutdown?
I would say mostly no. That would be the answer. And maybe on the sort of recruitment, of course, if you think about a region that's growing 30% year to date and has a history of growth of 40% over a period of six years on average, of course, that puts us in a situation where we have the opportunity and need to strengthen the organization. And I would take it also as a sign of confidence from the management side to the future of Harvia.
In the Q2 results information for Sweden, it was mentioned that consumer trade is expected to improve towards the end of the year, as a new partner is being sought or started to replace Kesko. What is the situation with this? And if the partnership has already started, has it had an impact on the Q3 results yet?
Yeah, I did touch upon it when I talked about North Europe as part of the presentation. And the answer is yes. So for Harvia, when Kesko made the strategy alignment or like realignment, kind of choosing to leave D2C technical trade in Sweden, that left a big gap in our channel landscape in Sweden. And we have been able to bridge that gap. And we have started to work with the new partner, and that's going very well.
And Kesko is still selling our products also in Sweden, but with a slightly different concept. In APEC-MEA, given that the multiple markets seem now to demonstrate sustainable growth, but you are partly dependent on relatively long logical routes from Europe, are there opportunities for M&A? Or have you considered adding capacity into the region? To same note, are you delivering whole sauna kit solutions increasingly to the region? Can you give a little bit color on your outlook in this regard?
Yeah. We do have a factory in Asia. Since 2005, the 20th anniversary of our factory in Guangzhou, we have a mini version of Murame. Murame is an equipment factory that is also a volume factory. We have another volume factory, the China factory. On top of that, for the heaters, we have the value factory close to Frankfurt in the EOS home space. So we actually do have supply source in that region. And majority of the products we sell in APAC are the technical equipment. So if you look at the sort of the cabin full solution business, it is very clear that the star of the region is North America. We do have... ambition to also increase the full solutions business in Asia. We are already doing it mostly through partnerships. Some of the products, cabins are also shipped from Europe. And at the same time, we are assessing what potentially could be the right time for us to have sauna cabin factory in that region when the volumes would justify it.
Okay, ladies and gentlemen, we have now spent exactly one hour with Harvia. I don't have any more questions on the list. Thank you very much for following and let's sauna.
Thank you very much. Let's sauna.