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Inpost Sa

Q42023

3/28/2024

speaker
Gabriela Burdach
Investor Relations Director, InPost

Good morning. My name is Gabriela Burdach and I'm the investor relations director at InPost. Welcome to InPost Q4 and full year 2023 earnings call. This call is being recorded and it will be available later on our IR website. Today's presenters are Rafał Brzoska, InPost CEO, Michael Rouse, CEO International, and Adam Aleksandrowicz, CFO. After the slides, we will have a Q&A session. A quick disclaimer, today's call includes forward-looking statements that are subject to risks, and it is possible that the actual results may differ materially. I am now pleased to hand over to our CEO, Rafał, over to you.

speaker
Rafał Brzoska
CEO, InPost

Thank you, Gabi, and thank you all for joining us today. What an incredible year 2023 turned out to be. We achieved new records in volume, financial results, and most importantly, we delivered on our key strategic priorities. Let me then start with the broader perspective. We are operating in nine countries and have exposure on the largest e-commerce markets in Europe. With over 66,000 points, we are the leading out-of-home and number one APM network in Europe. As of the end of last year, 61% of our out-of-home points and 38% of our APMs were located outside of Poland. Moving on to the next page, I'm pleased to share with you some of our full year highlights. At the group level, Impulse delivered almost 900 million passes last year, 20% more than in the previous year, with revenue growing even faster by 25% year-on-year, hitting almost 9 billion Polish zloty. Our adjusted BDA for 2023 was almost 40% higher than last year, coupled with a robust positive free cash flow at the group level and further reduction in our net leverage ratio. In Poland, our volume once again outperformed, massively outperformed the e-commerce market, which I will talk about in a second. Revenue generated in Poland grew by an impressive 27% and our adjusted EBITDA margin reached 46%. This great performance not only demonstrated our financial strength, but also resulted in the generation of substantial free cash flow with an impressive cash conversion of 49%. That's money we can invest, of course, in our international expansion. As for the international markets, we have some good news to share as well. Our volume increased by 28% compared to last year, and our adjusted EBITDA grew by 82%. the culmination of our strategic efforts was particularly evident in the last quarter of 2023, where we not only achieved a sustainable level of profitability in the UK, but also reached a BDDA break-even in Italy, and that's the news of the day here. It means Q4 2023 was the first quarter when all our markets were profitable at the adjusted BDA level. We remained the past the local leader in Poland. Last year, we claimed the top position in the UK, and just recently, this quarter, we secured the number one position APM Network in France, reaching 5,000 machines in that market. Moving on to the next page, last year, we shared with you some priorities for 2023, and we delivered on our key promises. In Poland, we solidified our leadership position by achieving volume growth that surpassed the market. The robust generation of free cash flow was strategically invested in international markets. The improvement in the BDA resulted in a lower net leverage ratio, which was another priority for the group in 2023. In a challenging environment, Mondial Rila demonstrated the resilience of its business model, generating volumes well above the e-commerce market and with a very decent margin. Thanks to our focus on the quality of service and wider merchant adoption, we saw remarkable growth in the B2C segment. We invested in logistics, opened new hubs and depots, and we continue to work on improving our quality and delivery time. The year 2023 marked a significant breakthrough for Inpost in the UK. We finally have more control over logistics. We have unlocked volume growth and have become a BDA profitable. Now it is time to accelerate the network expansion by focusing on our strengths and what we do best, customer experience and quality. On the next slide, here I would like to highlight that Q4 was another quarter of Enpost outperforming the market in all key geographies. In Poland, throughout 2023, our volumes grew by 16%, while the e-commerce market only grew by 11%. Despite being the market leader in Poland, we continue to gain market share. This is the effect of our long-term investments into logistics, commitment to quality, and relentless pursuit of excellence in our user experience. We also successfully gained market share in Mondial Relay geographies. Mondial Relay volume increased by 13% and in the strategically important B2C sector even more, by 23%. All this while total e-commerce market volumes grew only 2% year-on-year. In the UK, InPost is in a growth mode. Last year, our volume grew by over two times. We are expanding our network, increasing volumes, disrupting the market and gaining market share. And the market potential in the UK is massive. On the next page, let's look at some ESG metrics. Delivery to impulse APM, we know, is the most environmentally friendly solution. What we see based on our calculations is that delivery to APM emits up to 98% less CO2 than traditional door-to-door service. And this concerns only transportation, but even taking into account branches, sorting, and customer pick-up, APMs are much more eco-friendly than two-door. These calculations concern in post-APMs with our density of the network and of course the efficiency of our current operations. As you can see on the chart, 2023 was another year of declining CO2 emissions per parcel in scope one, two, but also in the third one in our company. All this is getting noticed. We have just recently received higher ESG ratings And we were also included by Euronext in the ESG index, which recognizes the top 25 companies with the best ESG practices among blue chips listed on Euronext Amsterdam. Let's move on to the business update from Poland. In Poland, we have the largest, most dense, and most convenient APM network for our customers. That's a fact. In cities, 87% of the population lives within a 7-minute walking distance to an impulse APM. And nationally, this ratio is already over 60%. Last year, we added over 2,500 new APMs in our domestic market. Each year, we add new APMs to our network because we see that the demand of our services remains at an outstanding level. And we know that our new machines will maintain a high utilization rate. We don't see the ceiling yet. we see that new machines adopt at a comparable level versus previous cohorts, and we will deploy new APMs as long as we see it really makes sense. Turning to the next page, In the last quarter alone, our volume grew by 17% year-on-year, underscoring our continued market share gains. What you can also see here is that our volume growth continues to outpace the capacity of our local network. The chart on the right shows inputs high levels of utilization across our entire network. What I'd like to highlight here is that during the recent peak season, our utilization rate was even higher than last year, increased by an impressive 9 percentage points, and we still successfully managed last year's peak. We believe InPost was the only company in the market that delivered before Christmas without any problems. And this shifted a lot of volume towards inputs in December, more than we expected, and we still delivered with superb quality. On the next page, we have more details about our growth drivers in Poland. We have a growing and loyal customer base of over 18 million APM users, representing more than half of country's population and more than a number of households. We also have more than 11 million users of our top-rated mobile app. Frankly, now it's hitting almost 12 million. Our user base is very loyal. 20% of our APM users are super heavy users, the most loyal group. They are responsible already for over 60% of our total volume. And what's more important, all the time, these users increase frequency of orders. All customers are extremely important to us, which is why we are striving to enhance their user experience even further, for example, by adding new services. In Q1 2024, we proudly launched Impulse Pay, following successful beta tests in 2023. It is more than just a payment service. Impulse Pay represents a revolution in convenience and efficiency, providing one-click payment and easy delivery. We are early in the journey, but we already see a very positive impact in terms of conversion at checkout and much higher rate of completed baskets. Next page, please. Now I would like to share with you the recent studies that only confirm what we already see internally, that we are a beloved consumer brand. As you can see in the chart, customers in Poland favor parcel lockers over other delivery methods and they have a clear preference for impulse brands versus other providers. When shopping online, 93% of customers that use parcel locker delivery choose InPost APM. We significantly stand out compared to our competitors. We always emphasize our outstanding NPS score. This is not just a number. Behind that result is our superior quality. We have the most dense and the most convenient locker network in Poland. 22,000 APMs. And these are not just lockers. Behind them, we have the whole logistics backbone at the operational level that allows us to deliver more than 97% of parcels the next day, even during peak times. Our high focus on user experience throughout the entire parcel journey only boosts the consumer satisfaction. And our competitors are far from that. And we constantly work on getting better. I will now hand over to Michael for a short update on our international business. Thank you very much.

speaker
Michael Rouse
CEO International, InPost

Thanks, Rafael. Good morning, everyone. 2023 has been a strong year for the international business and all the markets that operate within it. We have continued to take market share from legacy incumbent players We've been attracting and building new users to APMs in all markets, and we've established InPost and Mondial Relay as the leading locker solution in the UK and France. We're still early in this journey in all markets, but we're now break-even in all the international segments, and we will continue to double down on our strategy on replicating the flywheel and building the leading consumer-centric e-commerce delivery option for our consumers, merchants, and landlords alike. At a snapshot, 60% of the group's total out-of-home delivery points are now located outside of Poland, and this percentage will only continue to grow. In terms of volumes, one-third of the total group is now generated by our international markets, and in 2023 these grew by 28%, faster than Polish volumes, and we expect this to be the case going forward. In 23, we increased our international APN network by almost 5,000 locations, or 56% year over year. The number of lockers increased even faster, by 76% year over year, as we deployed larger machines and also expanded the APMs already deployed. We're still adding PUDO points in order to increase the density of our network, but not at the same pace. I want to emphasize that our APMs have significantly increased utilization rates in France and the UK last year, However, there is still potential for further improvement, particularly when compared to Poland as a benchmark. So let's move on to Mondial Relay. Our key priorities here remain the same. One, expand our APM network. Two, growing the customer and merchant adoption. And three, investing in improving end-to-end operational quality. We've made significant progress last year against these priorities. And last week, we made a significant announcement with over 5,000 lockers in France. And earlier this quarter, we reached the number one spot in terms of APM networks in this country. In Mondale relay markets, now over a third of the population live within a seven-minute walk from an impulse location as we continue to build density and coverage. A big pillar of our transformation is ensuring the logistics backbone can service all of France with quality, as well as support the increasing cross-border growth. We continue to invest in this area, and at the end of the year, we already had 41 depots and six hubs in France, and more in total across Mondial. This larger logistics backbone, which is nearly double now from when we acquired the business, will and is definitely having an impact on our operational quality, which will continue to impact positively on volumes, revenue, and results in the long term. Just to give you a small flavor of this, our B2C volume, which we've been super focused on growing, more than 60% of that now is being delivered D plus one. Moving on to the next page. One thing I want you to take away from this slide, and Rafael has mentioned that already, Mondial Relay is operating in a very difficult environment. declining e-commerce market volumes, strong and good quality competition. However, despite those market challenges, we have delivered double-digit volume growth last year, proving that our efforts and our business model are successful and our offer is attractive for both consumers and merchants. Mondial Relay volumes grew by 13% last year, significantly surpassing the e-commerce market. This growth is driven by the B2C segment that increased year over year by 23% in the whole year, and by 31% in Q423, and now accounts for over 40% of the total Mondial Relay volumes. In total, our merchant count grew nearly over 50,000, up 16% year over year, providing a strong portfolio to farm in the near to medium term. Moreover, all of our new volume is an APM volume. In Q423, almost 20% of Mondial Relay's volume in France was delivered via lockers, a significantly from 7% in Q422. You can also see it on the chart in the middle. Our new cohort follows the adoption rate of the previous ones, confirming the recognition of our expanding locker network. The whole network utilization is growing, and you could see that on previous pages, and we still see space for further improvement. Finally, Now I'd like to touch on the progress of the Mondial Relay brand and increasing customer satisfaction. Delighting our customers and improving on this on a continuous basis is critical for our sustainable success. In terms of brand awareness and reliability, Mondial Relay stands tall with 35% top-of-mind brand awareness now securing the top position amongst our competitors. These are lower levels compared to Poland, but still these are top levels in the French market versus peers. And according to the recent external research, 91% of respondents affirm that Mondial Relay fulfills the delivery promise. And 83% of the Mondial Relay users express that our service is their preferred choice for deliveries, reflecting the trust and the loyalty we are building. The total number of APM users has tripled in the past year with over 3 million active users now in France. And our mobile app albeit still early in that journey, launched at the end of last year, was downloaded over 1 million times now, and has strong store readings. And our MPS is at 22, and the distance versus the closest competitor is increasing. Our building blocks and our investments are now translating into meaningful customer centricity across the Mondial Relay portfolio. Now let's turn our attention to the UK. In the UK, we're on a path to create a fully integrated model. Last year was a breakthrough year for InPost in the UK. We started 23 knowing that our offer fits the market perfectly. Proof of concept was there. The demand was there, yet we could not grab the demand fully. In 23, we concentrated on resolving the bottlenecks. We finally have more control of our logistics process. We've unlocked the volume growth. We've started to speed up the network expansion because we see more demand for our services. We've engaged a new active, frequent locker consumer and user. And we've become EBITDA profitable thanks to higher volume, better logistics and economies of scale. And we expect that the last quarter profitability level is sustainable in the short term. This year, we have ambitious plans to deploy more APMs to meet the growing demand we're seeing, targeting in excess of 3,000 locations in the UK, taking the network over 10,000 in total. We want to continue to improve operations in conjunction with Menzies, and we're now piloting a B2C offer and plan to launch B2C on a larger scale towards the end of 2024. InPost has firmly secured its position as the number one APM network in the UK, significantly surpassing the nearest competitor. Our growth trajectory continues with a significant 62% year-over-year increase in the out-of-home points, totaling 7,800 at the end of the year. This expansion solidifies the coverage of our network, and we continue to expand now beyond the core three cities as we offer national seven-day-a-week coverage. Specifically on the three core cities that we've been core concentrating on, over 60% of the population now live within a seven-minute walk from our locations. Compare that to over a year ago, which was at 40%. We've made significant strides and improvement in covering cities that account for 70% of the UK e-commerce market. We continue to work closely with UK landlords and big chains, targeting high footfall traffic locations such as supermarkets and petrol forecourts, with recent partnership announcements of Lidl, BP and Shell being new additions to the footprint. Our growth is also coming from existing landlord development, with over 60% of APMs strategically deployed through partnerships with existing landlords such as WH Smith, Lidl and Tesco in the past year. On the right-hand chart, you can see the utilization of our lockers across the years. It's grew dynamically year by year, but as you saw on slide 15, there is still room for growth, especially as our offer in the UK doesn't cover BDC, which is the largest part of the market, yet we have to address. Closing the UK section, I'm happy to highlight the significant progress we've achieved in expanding our volume and customer base. Our mobile app, launched in Q3 23, is rapidly gaining popularity with over 300,000 downloads already. Our application significantly enhances the consumer experience, providing features such as capacity tracker, and we've already received positive customer feedback on the early development of our app. As illustrated on the column charts, our quarterly volume experience consistent growth through 23, ultimately doubling for the entire year, resulting in the successful delivery of almost 47 million parcels. Equally remarkable is the substantial increase in our customer base, boasting 2.7 million users, more than double the number from the previous year. These achievements underscore our commitment to excellence and continuous improvement and innovation in meeting the evolving needs of our customers in this dynamic UK market as we established out of home as a disruptor to the established to door market. I'll now hand over to Adam to talk about the financials in more detail, and thank you.

speaker
Adam Aleksandrowicz
CFO, InPost

Thank you, Michael. Morning, everyone. As usual, I'll take you through our financial performance and then wrap up with an outlook for the current year. So moving on to page 23, you can see the summary of our group P&L for the full year 2023, as well as for the last quarter. 2023 was a very strong performance year for us, with good top line and EBITDA growth and margin expansion, underpinned by repricing and transformation of the UK operations, which turned sustainably EBITDA positive in Q3, all of which were reflected in visible improvement of the group margin. We have also improved our cash generation on free cash flow level and visibly deleveraged the business. At the group level, in Q4, we recorded the revenue growth of 23.7%, while for the full year 2023, our revenue grew by 25.2%. In both periods, the revenue growth was higher than the volume growth, which was an effect of the repricing as well as changing of the product mix. Our adjusted EBITDA grew by 44.5% in Q4 and over 39% in the full year. Adjusted EBITDA margin for the group has expanded by 460 basis points to almost 32% in Q4. And in the full year 2023, adjusted EBITDA margin also improved, reaching almost 31%. Key contributors here were Poland, and the UK, while Montreal started to show positive margin traction in Q4 only, improving by 150 basis points. In terms of capex, as guided earlier, we spent less than in previous years, and capex intensity was reduced year on year and stood at 11.5% of revenue. As you can see, group free cash flow before M&A expenses was positive at the level of 764 million published slots, compared to negative 11 million in the previous year. This was a result of improving cash generation in Polish segment, which covers in excess capital needs of our international part of the business. Thanks to high free cash flow generation and significant adjusted EBITDA growth, we're able to reduce the net leverage ratio down to 2.2x. Moving on to Poland's results. We had a record peak season with volumes reaching 175 million parcels, up by 17% year-on-year. This was driven by an increase in demand for our locker and to-do services and was above the e-commerce market dynamics. The main catalysts for growth were fashion segments, supported by positive contributions from marketplaces. By month, we have seen strong volumes throughout the whole of the Q4, maybe with some stronger dynamics in October, which directly resulted from software September and Q3 demand partially shifting to Q4. Revenue increase in Q4 stood at 28%, which is 11 percentage points higher than volume growth. As you can see, the business has continued to reflect the strong positive effects of the repricing, while the mixed impact was largely neutral. Our adjusted EBITDA grew by an impressive 36% for both a quarter and a full year, reflecting the positive impact of repricing, operational leverage, and effective cost management. Now let's look at Monday Relay performance. In the fourth quarter, the business delivered 9% growth in volumes, thereby upbasing the e-commerce market, and our strategic focus on the B2C sector resulted in a significant 31% volume growth in that segment. On the revenue side, though, Montreal reported a slight decrease in the last quarter. It was the effect of strengthening of reporting currency versus last year. In constant exchange rate times, revenues grew by 5.3% in the quarter. Revenue per parcel showed a slight decline. The reason for that was the product and customer mix. On the product mix side, it was prioritizing out-of-home over two-door, affecting revenue throughout the whole 2023. While on the merchant side, our B2C growth was mainly driven by large blue-chip customers at a lower average price versus total segment, while the SME merchant potential, which enjoys higher price point, is still unexplored. In the fourth quarter, Mondial Relay adjusted EBITDA increased by 12% when measured in Polish Zloty, while the growth in Euro terms was at 19%. We also saw EBITDA margin in Q4 improve by 150 basis points, thanks to operational improvements and good productivity management. Now onto the next page, a snapshot of our UK and Italian markets. In the UK, we continued to grow share and delivered 17 million parcels in Q4. At the same time, we have continued to deploy APMs and to drive network coverage and better service convenience. This led to another profitable quarter in the UK, and we believe that the margin level achieved in Q4 is largely sustainable in the short term, though it may be slightly diluted by accelerated network deployment in the coming quarters. In Italy, cross-border was a significant driver of volume growth. For the first time, we have achieved a break-even point in the Italian market on adjusted EBITDA level. This is a significant stepping stone and we expect Italy to continue profitable in 2024. The entire international segment had a visible impact on the group margin improvement in Q4 and is on track to continue doing so going forward. Moving on to page 27, we are now going to look at the unit economics evolution in the UK. You've seen this chart already, you're familiar with it, and Q4 was a continuation of the positive traction already marked in Q3 of last year. Our business in the UK was growing gradually quarter by quarter last year to end up with 169% year-on-year volume growth in Q4, driven by both C2C and returns channels. At the same time, our revenue per parcel has increased by 32% year on year in local currency due to change in the product mix, namely decline in a low price rental product, while higher price C2C and returns grew. Our ability to unlock volume, the favorable changes in the product mix, as well as the optimization of logistics costs, all resulted in higher profitability. Adjusted EBITDA per parcel improved from a loss of 4.5 Polish zloty in Q4 2022 to a profit of 1.3 Polish zloty in Q4 2023. On top of this, it is worth mentioning that improvement in the UK was achieved ahead of starting our B2C product offering, which gives us confidence in our ability to further expand in the UK. Now let's look at the items below adjusted EBITDA on the next page. You see here the usual bridge. I'd probably want to call out a few points. On the adjustments line, you will notice increased LTIP valuation. This is due to additional shares awarded under the incentive program, as well as overperformance on 2023 target profits KPIs, and increased assumptions around program vesting levels. There is also one-off amounting to 12 million Polish zloty related to the acquisition costs of Menzies distribution. Amortization related to IFRS 16 assets right of use increased by 152 million, mainly driven by network scale on APM land and depo leases. We have reported EBIT of almost 1.5 billion Polish zloty, an increase of 59% year-on-year. EBIT margin stood at 16.9% and has improved by 360 basis points. One of the main cost items below EBIT were obviously higher financial costs. The vast majority of those, which is roughly three quarters of the year-on-year increase in absolute terms, were unrealized foreign exchange debt valuation losses driven by strengthening of PLN versus Euro in Q4 of 2023. The loss in associates of 30.9 million Polizlotti resulted mainly from one of restructuring costs at Menzies distribution. Excluding one of expenses, this line would have neutral impact on our results. At the net profit line in 2023, Impost Group achieved a net profit of 647 million Polizlotti, which was an increase of almost 42% compared to the previous year. Now let's look at the cash generation for the full 12 months of last year. Our free cash flow before M&A expenses, as mentioned already, stood at 764 million PLN. Including acquisition of 30% stake in Menzies last summer, our group free cash flow reached 509 million PLN in 2023. Free cash flow to EBITDA conversion rate in Poland improved to 49% in 2023. up from 37% in the previous year, driven primarily by adjusted EBITDA growth and margin expansion. We have continued to reinvest significant part of our cash into expanding our international footprint and plan to continue doing so in 2024. Moving on to the following slide, let's cover the group's capital expenditure. In 2023, our group CAPEX experienced a 9% reduction year on year. This decline was mainly influenced by Poland, where CAPEX decreased by 18% due to a reduced scale of investment into our maturing network. Additionally, we continued to optimize our APM manufacturing, raw material and components inventory. as the global supply chain has returned to a more predictable pattern in terms of delivery lead times. For the first time in InPost history, we allocated a larger portion of our CapEx to international markets rather than to Poland. Looking at the breakdown of CapEx by type, as usual, the majority, around 67% of total, was allocated to APM network development. underscoring our commitment to expanding and enhancing our infrastructure coverage. Operations received the second largest portion, accounting for 16% of the total group capex, driven mostly by expanding our depot footprint and sorting automation in mondial relay markets. Now let me provide an insight into the net debt and leverage. Our gross debt at the end of December, 2023 was essentially unchanged versus 2022 year end. A slight decline of gross debt number was a result of positive Forex valuation effects in Euro denominated debt and also lower utilization of revolving facility. The growth in group EBITDA, higher cash reserves and reduced debt have contributed to a decrease in our net debt position. Consequently, we have managed to lower our net leverage ratio to 2.2 times of EBITDA down from 3.2 times recorded at the end of the previous year. And finally, let me end with the 2024 full year outlook update. As for the e-commerce markets, Our expectations are that in Poland market volumes will grow by high single digit for the full year, while in France and in the UK, we expect mid single digit market growth. This should be an improvement in terms of the broader market performance versus 2023. Regarding our volumes in 2024, we expect to continue to outperform market growth and aim to increase market share across all regions. This will be driven by our strategic advantages in convenience and sustainability, cost efficiencies for merchants, and continued network expansion. At the group level, revenue increase is expected to outpace volume growth by a low to mid single digit, mainly due to repricing in Poland, with no meaningful repricing impact in international markets. In terms of EBITDA, we anticipate group adjusted EBITDA growth in line with revenue growth. This will be driven by slight softening of adjusted EBITDA margin in Poland, which we expect to stabilize around mid 40s due to the fact we plan to prioritize volume growth over price growth in Poland. and significant year-over-year increase in adjusted EBITDA from international markets. We expect adjusted EBITDA margin for the international segment to be low double digits, thanks to volume growth and improved unit economics. We also foresee Mondial Relays adjusted EBITDA margin to improve by 100 to 200 basis points, while in the UK we expect sustained adjusted EBITDA profitability versus Q4 2023. We are committed to continue to accelerate our international APM network expansion in 2024. Our total capex is projected to be approximately 1.3 billion polysloty, with a greater focus on investments in international markets. Capex intensity will remain at low teens. We expect stable and positive free cash flow at the group level, as well as continued deleveraging, while we remain open to opportunistic non-organic options for growth. Now, to give a little insight into Q1 trading, I'd like to point out that at the group level, we have seen strong trading in terms of volumes, and the growth rates for the group were slightly higher than those reported for the full year 2023. Our Q1 earnings release is due on the 15th of May. That is all from my side. Thank you all, and over to the moderator for the Q&A session.

speaker
Mondial Relays

If you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad. Please ensure your line is unmuted locally, as you will be advised when to ask your question. And our first question comes from the line of David Kirsten from Jefferies. Please go ahead.

speaker
David Kirsten
Analyst, Jefferies

Hi, good morning, everybody. I've got two questions. First, can you please confirm that you are planning to accelerate the network expansion in 2024? I think you indicated earlier expecting around 10,000 lockers to be added. And is that the reason for the step up in CAPEX by around 30% to 1.3 billion? Or does it also include maybe further expansion of the stake in Menzies? And the second question is on the EBITDA margin in Poland. What is offsetting operational leverage and low to mid single-digit price increases and maybe lower unit costs that you expect a softening of the EBITDA margin to around 45%? And what does that imply in terms of your medium-term objective for high 40s to low 50 EBITDA margin or is mid 40s now the new range? Thank you very much.

speaker
Adam Aleksandrowicz
CFO, InPost

Thank you, David. Happy to take those questions. So in terms of APM network rollout, it's true we expect to accelerate in all key markets. I think key focus, as previously indicated, will be on France and the UK. We will also continue to deploy, as Rafał indicated, whenever it makes sense to improve density and uh convenience of the end consumer will continue to deploy in poland very selectively but still and there'll be some deployments both in italy and spain so all in all net net yes the step up in capex 24 versus 23 will be to a large extent driven by the acceleration of the apm network deployment Question number two, EBITDA margin in Poland. I think two key points. First one is I think we're guiding to a slight softening, but if you look actually at the 23 full year margin, it's not meaningful. It's actually very, very marginal. And I think the main point here is it's not really structural. In our view, it's technical. So if you think how we develop the business it's not going to be very different to previous years where we trade off price for volume and as you know with most of our blue chip merchants we have volume commitment arrangements whereas if they hit certain thresholds on volume they are remunerated and incentivized and then remunerated by certain price discounts so our base case assumption for the budget is um we will grow well ahead of the market still continue to expand market share and if this is the case uh then clearly the price increase uh will be um will be lower than you would normally expect you know to offset fully inflation now having said that you know as we you know discussed it a couple of times back in the past the way these volume commitments are kind of constructed and built is we have a balanced position price versus volume so if volume growth doesn't happen we see then an upside on the price and And effectively, what we're focused on is to make sure we deliver the absolute EBITDA number. So the focus is really to make sure we continue to grow EBITDA at pace. And our growth, as we said, is going to be, give or take, at the level of revenue growth. And therefore, if you think about this, we still expect quite a robust nominal EBITDA number and a strong growth rate. And that obviously is quite important. important from strategic perspective so that you know it enables us to generate enough cash to continue to fund our expansion strategy and then still generate meaningful free cash flow post expansion capex so uh i'd say you know the focus is really make sure we continue to grow ebitda profit and are able to improve our cash generation metrics in that perspective yeah

speaker
David Kirsten
Analyst, Jefferies

Understood. So more focus on volume than on price. And the 20% volume growth, 20% plus in Q1, is that what you would expect for the full year? How does that look in terms of phasing in the remaining quarters?

speaker
Adam Aleksandrowicz
CFO, InPost

Well, I think we wouldn't take it as a benchmark for the full year. But clearly, if you look at the Q1 and you refer that also, you know, to some official data around the retail market growth and the eco market growth, that it clearly shows that we continue to grow well ahead of the market and actually beat the market quite visibly. I would expect as we guide that, you know, this is going to continue to be the case. But definitely, as we said, probably high single digits growth rate is what we expect for Poland for the full year in terms of market growth.

speaker
David Kirsten
Analyst, Jefferies

Thank you very much, Adam, and all the best in your future endeavors.

speaker
Adam Aleksandrowicz
CFO, InPost

Thank you, David.

speaker
Mondial Relays

The next question comes from the line of Satish Sivakumar from Citi. Please go ahead.

speaker
Satish Sivakumar
Analyst, Citi

Yeah, thank you. I've got three questions here. Maybe just following up on the David's question on the Poland. Just putting into context, it's an infrastructure type setup and given that locus, the market is maturing. How much upside do you think there will be on margins here as we go into medium term or is it mid 45 plus r1 or not two percentages where you think it stabilizes in the medium term and then the second one uh uh just more around the customer mix uh flat like uh e-commerce volume again there's a lot of news floor on the asian e-commerce coming in So what is your overall exposure in Sheen and Temu? How does it actually progress into Q4 and into Q1 in terms of exposure-wise? And the third one is more on the international market. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think Adam mentioned B2C offering in the UK. Can you just elaborate more on that, actually? What is it driven by? And then just in the international as well, uh you know there's one asset which you used to partner bsd is up for sale uh what is your uh take on that asset uh would that give you do you see that something like mondial type d where you kind of gain bigger footprint in the uk yeah any color on that would be helpful thank you

speaker
Adam Aleksandrowicz
CFO, InPost

Let me maybe take the 1st question and then the merchant makes and the B2C in the UK. I will then leave to to raffle and Michael. So, I think, you know, we do see an upside potential on the margin in Poland. And essentially, if you look at the margin development, it's not necessarily linear year on year. So there will be ups and downs in the bumps. I think where 24 is going to be slightly different to 23 in terms of the overall dynamic that supports margin development is um you know we expect inflation to start normalizing towards you know the second half of the year i mean it's currently relatively low but we expect certain government subsidies to be taken away mid-year as announced and therefore we'll see some uh optic in the inflation rate so clearly You know, from the, say, cost pressure perspective, we expect some incremental cost pressure in the second half of the year. Now, having said that, clearly, you know, in the context of 21, 22, especially 22 and first half of 23, we would expect inflation to normalize, you know, towards the end of this year and then 2025 and going forward. um subject to all other elements remaining intact and that obviously if you think about the operating leverage in economies of scale is very supportive in in stabilizing and then growing margin going forward because if you don't have those one-off um pressure elements that are impacting your cost base then your operating leverage is much more pronounced, as you have seen historically in the pre-inflation era, if that's right, in our history prior to 2021, really, or 2022. So therefore, I think, you know, we will see that progress undoubtedly, especially as we consolidate our leadership footprint and we also increase scale. As I mentioned, you know, 2024, we're still going to continue to deploy the network and undoubtedly 25 and 26 will continue as well. And therefore, I think, you know, high 40s is probably where we still see the potential. So I guess that probably describes a little bit how we see the runway there. And in terms of the UK questions, I'll leave the floor to Rafa and Michael.

speaker
Rafał Brzoska
CEO, InPost

Yeah, so maybe let me first answer the question about Teemo and Sheen, and then passing to Michael for the UK. You know, I think it's a very fair point to say that both Chinese players, Teemo and Sheen, are overperforming versus our initial expectations. Very strong start in Jan, continuation in Feb and March. visibly taking share among the new clients but also existing clients of other platforms as we saw it in our surveys that only 20% of their clients are new new clients on the Polish market not using the other platforms so far so that's of course a very good sign for us because this means that we we provide them services for new customers but also the existing customers are increasing their volume per month per quarter per year in terms of online purchases means that the penetration of online Within our own channel, thanks to those two players aggressively building their customer base, it's increasing. And also, you know, that's why we feel this is another boost for the Polish e-compenetration and acceleration of that e-compenetration. So all in all, above expectations on both players. Passing to Michael regarding the UK.

speaker
Michael Rouse
CEO International, InPost

Thank you, Rafa. Good morning, Satish. Just firstly on the B2C question, I think I've raised before. We've been testing a B2C slash outbound offer since the end of Q3 and since we commenced the partnership with Menzies. That's been very much in pilot phase with less than five clients really testing the product and helping us understand sort of behaviours. With the customer and the merchant, because clearly there's a lot of work that needs to really be developed, not just on the actual product offer itself, but actually working with merchants and the checkouts and how we present the locker, et cetera, to do that. The current plan, as Adam flagged and I flagged, is towards the end of Q3, we plan to really expand that offer to more than three clients. It will still be very much early in development because still a lot of focus is going on our C2C and returns offer. We still have quite a lot of demand on that, but really we do feel the time will be in the second half of the year to really start to actively sell the B2C offer. On the last question, Satish, sorry, I didn't capture the... Yes, Michael, actually, let me make it straightforward, actually.

speaker
Satish Sivakumar
Analyst, Citi

Every software sale, you used to partner with them previously, and what's your take on it? Do you think it brings, basically, it's a good asset or or you are actually building scale at Menzies. Just a little bit on that.

speaker
Michael Rouse
CEO International, InPost

Right now, we're very much focused on building scale and offering and product quality with Menzies. Obviously, we're aware of Every's for Sale. I think it's quite public in the market. And I can't really comment at this point or any further point at this point.

speaker
Satish Sivakumar
Analyst, Citi

OK, so it's not something for you as things stands today. Yeah, is that fair? Yeah. OK. Yeah. Okay, thank you. That's quite helpful. Thank you.

speaker
Mondial Relays

The next question comes from the line of Roman Reshetnev from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

speaker
Roman Reshetnev
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Hi, thanks for the call. You have made significant progress on mondial EBITDA margin versus Q3. Could you please provide more details on operational improvements that you made during the quarter? And how much of this efficiency do you expect to sustain in 2024? And how do you see the phasing of EBITDA margins for first half and second half this year? And second question would be on Italy. You have previously been refraining from providing guidance on Italy. But given the break-even we achieved in Q4, would you expect further margin improvement versus Q4 this year? And where do we see the balance between growth and profitability going forward? Thank you.

speaker
Rafał Brzoska
CEO, InPost

Michael, maybe about Mondial Relay operating leverage and Italy guidance.

speaker
Michael Rouse
CEO International, InPost

Yeah, I think, look, really what we've seen is a number of factors start to really come to play in Mondial Relay and Q4. One, as Rafal just flagged, the operating leverage. Really, we've been building the scale, we've been building the critical mass, and we're starting to see that come through. Two, the operational quality itself and the productivity and the efficiency that we're seeing coming through. Thirdly, the product mix is balanced. We've seen the growth of B2C really start to play through, and that obviously comes through in our operating efficiency. You know, our view is, and Adam already flagged, we expect sort of 100 to 200 basis points improvement as we continue to go forward and really the progress now we want to sustain it. When it comes to Italy, we won't be guiding specifically on Italy very much. It's a great, important turning point. It again demonstrates the learnings we're taking from every market now as really we're now replicating into all the other developing markets. And really, this is just another proof point of the model. Even though the model here has been heavily dominant with pudo really the other components together have really come to really create the operating average and the profitability so but we won't be guiding on on italy specifically thank you very much thank you the next question comes from the line of marco lumite from barclays please go ahead

speaker
Marco Lumite
Analyst, Barclays

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. The first question is on the M&A, as you mentioned that, you know, there might be some M&A this year. So are you also thinking about doing M&A in, let's call the tier three countries, so for example, Italy and Spain, because my understanding is that at the moment, Italy and Spain are mainly cross-border volumes. So just wondering if it's part of your plan, basically starting a proper domestic deliveries rather than just cross-border in Italy and Spain. Second question is on the UK and the Menzies deal. Just wondering whether in the call option you have got to buy the remaining stake of Menzies, there is a fixed expiry date. So if that's something that we should expect this year or it's up for discussion. And my third question is about France. I think that in 23, there was some margin pressure because of the inflation versus limited price increases. And yeah, I was wondering whether I guess your new guidance for France also includes the fact that you are increasing prices in 2024. And yeah, what's the strategy on price increases in France? Thank you.

speaker
Michael Rouse
CEO International, InPost

Yeah, I can feel free to add anything, Adam or Raphael, but I think I'll take each one in turn. I think firstly, Marco, when it comes to domestic versus cross-border volume in Italy and Spain, there is domestic volume developing, albeit both markets have grown quite successfully over the last two years, really, with cross-borders being the lead. But we do see domestic volume now starting really on the back of our pan international European merchants that we've been working with predominantly in markets like Poland and France. So that we would expect to continue to develop in 24. So we would expect the mix of the business to become not dramatically domestic, but certainly a more balanced portfolio as we go forward. And that will also you know, be encouraging to help us develop the network locally as well. When it comes to things like M&A, you know, in those markets, there's no obvious available targets. You know, I would say we remain opportunistic if the right opportunity came along. But I think that's a general view on all M&A for us as a company, as we consider. But the priority is really to build and focus organically when it comes to that. When it comes to Menzies, we don't comment on the call option. relative to it. I think at the time we said we had a period where we have the view to call option and we're still very much within that and we're developing with them and there's no fixed window on that, more just a factor of we work together to develop and grow and really invest in the quality when it comes to it. On France, I think really, again, I'll comment on what I said with Satish is, you know, towards the end of Q3 and Q4, we've continued to see the B2C and the product mix evolve, which is exactly what we set out to do. Two, we've really started to see the operating leverage increase. start to play through both on sort of the network scale as well as what we're seeing in the logistics offering and the backbone that we've been investing in. When it comes to sort of revenue growth and top line and pricing, we have done a very limited price increase in a very targeted way at the beginning of this year. but very much following the formula of what we've done in Poland. The objective here is not necessarily to put prices up. The objective here is to really work with retailers to secure volume, build the right mechanism, get the right placement in the checkout and really ensure we have a full end to end offer. And we'll continue to make those trade offs as really we're still in the build phase and we want to take market share and continue to to grow well ahead of the market.

speaker
Marco Lumite
Analyst, Barclays

so therefore the main operating leverage is not really coming from price it's really coming from what we're doing in the in the logistics offering in the network offering combined with the product mix okay thank you if i may if i may add a quick one uh on the uk so you are guiding for improvement in margins uh but in 2024 when we think about the quarter evolution uh shall we think just about sequential improvement quarter over quarter without basically considering the typical seasonality of the business.

speaker
Michael Rouse
CEO International, InPost

Just to correct, I didn't, I mean, sorry, we're not getting first in margin improvement for guiding for sustaining the margin. If anything, there might be some decrease because of investment into OPEX and other elements to invest further and accelerate in the network, but I wouldn't be planning or guiding for an increase in margin in the UK. Very much right now is, the first objective was to break even demonstrate the profitability of the market uh and and now we clearly want to invest and accelerate and and that's really the backbone so i would not be getting for increases in margin at this point okay thank you thank you before we take our next question as a reminder please press star one if you would like to ask a question

speaker
Mondial Relays

And our next question comes from the line of Henk Slotboom from The Idea. Please go ahead.

speaker
Henk Slotboom
Analyst, The Idea

Good morning, gentlemen. Good morning, Gabi. Thanks for taking my questions. I've got a couple of questions about Mondi Aguilera. First of all, if I look at the B2C proposition, I'm very pleased to see the growth in volumes there. On the other hand, if I look at the total growth of Mondial Relais, although it's well above market growth, what does that tell us about C2C? Is my assumption correct that it is still growing at 6-7%-ish? And are you outrunning the market there as well? Or are you experiencing more competition, for example, from the Vinted Go initiative that was launched. The second question relates to France specifically. If I look at the Geopost website and I look at the e-commerce barometer and all the stuff they write, then obviously they've made a clear change in their strategy in the past year, prioritizing growth of the out-of-home market. Now, to put it in geopolitical terms, if you poke the bear, you're quite likely to encounter a response. Well, in this case, the French bear, chronopost or geopost, how do they respond to your strong growth in France? After all, it's their home market. And so far, you've been growing quite impressively as a challenger there. And then a third thing, and it's also with regard to mondial delay. If I look at slide 25 and I look at the third bullet point, then it says revenue per parcel declined due to the product mix and the out-of-home prioritization over Tudor. Now, I can understand that Tudor has a higher price tag than the out-of-home route. But what about the product mix? If your B2C volume is outgrowing the overall volume, I thought that B2C margins were higher than C2C margins. Those were my questions. Thank you.

speaker
Michael Rouse
CEO International, InPost

Yeah, happy to answer. How are you doing? Nice to speak. Just coming back. Yes, clearly the focus and priority has been on B2C growth and we're clearly seeing fairly significant market share gains in that part of the segment. Yes, C2C growth is not growing at the same pace, but that also is by design. Really, you know, our market share in C2C is probably somewhere between 45 to 50% estimated. And really what we have actively built the network and we continue to invest in the network is to capture and grow the B2C growth because our market share there is more historically been in a single digit. So as we look at the medium term and look forward, very much our strategy is to maintain our C2C position and really ensure that sits and probably if that sits around single digit growth, I think that's a good outcome. But the focus in the company is to really grow our market share on B2C because we've been so under penetrated and that is really the opportunity both for share and margin in the medium to longer term. When it comes to France and sort of poking the French bear, I think the way we sort of consider it and the way I look at it right now is when we made the acquisition, I would say we were probably somewhere like a number three in the market. There was probably an equal number three. There was two or three other companies that were similar size and scale. And really, if I look at it today, we're now a meaningful number two. Even in our terms of scale and size, clearly we're growing aggressively. But I think what we've done very successfully is create a meaningful distance between the other players in the market to really establish ourselves in GeoPost and ChronoPost as sort of the main offerings and players in the market. Our offer is still very much focused on out-of-home. We're not really trying to offer a to-door solution. in terms of any competitive way, because really we see that the point of differentiation, clearly lockers being at the back of that. And if I look at the footprint in the market in terms of competitive offering, I would say there's still not a lot of competitive offering when it comes to lockers. And we clearly seem to be the major player in accelerating versus sort of the incumbent players in the market when it comes to that. Do they react? Is there price competitiveness? Of course, we see that, but what I also say at Focus is clearly our offering is trying to really target sort of lockers and really bring that new to the market of which really we are not competing in terms of sort of a shop to shop offer. Obviously that offer is still part of our offer from our legacy Pluto business, but the locker business now at scale and that becomes meaningful. Come back to your last question on page 25. I mean, Adam commented on this. I think there's a couple of elements going on. Firstly, we have historically had quite a bit of to-door business, so clearly as we've exited that, it is a lower price, so that's diluting the revenue per parcel. You're right, in the B2C side, clearly there is opportunity to grow price, but As Adam already flagged on the call, we're focusing on our key enterprise merchants where maybe price is not as sort of leveraged as maybe an SME or a mid-market portfolio, where that opportunity really going into 24 and beyond is still greenfield and unexplored. And we're really starting to enter into that. But that also is what's driving some of the end economics because clearly the B2C is improving on the operational efficiency, but on the price side, maybe not driving the same mix because we're working with larger clients to accelerate on the growth.

speaker
Henk Slotboom
Analyst, The Idea

Perhaps an add-on to your last answer. Am I correct to assume that, and you said, I believe in the introduction, that 60% of the B2C volume was already delivered on a B plus one basis?

speaker
Michael Rouse
CEO International, InPost

you're that there's no price difference between d plus one and the rest uh yeah no we're not we have we literally the the way that is because the network has evolved and we're able to deliver and and that's also a factor of quality i call it surprise and delight the customer but it's not that we're actively not it's not that we're actively selling d plus one In terms of that specific data point, more that is the ability right now in the network, we're able through injection to deliver 60% to D plus one already. So clearly that will provide opportunity, as we've said in the past, in the future, as we really start to evolve the product mix in the coming years.

speaker
Henk Slotboom
Analyst, The Idea

Okay, very clear.

speaker
Michael Rouse
CEO International, InPost

Thank you. Thank you.

speaker
Mondial Relays

We have no further questions on the line, so I will now hand over to Owen for some webcast questions.

speaker
Owen

Thanks, Jess. Our first webcast question comes from Prasth J. Handan from Downing Fund Managers. Could you explain the commercial opportunity of in-post pay in more detail? Is this just about generating more volumes through the network, or is it a revenue opportunity in its own right? Will it be rolled out in international businesses?

speaker
Rafał Brzoska
CEO, InPost

Thank you for that question. Let me let me answer that. So several times I explained that impulse pay for me personally, but also for the companies, the biggest innovations since our first locker was deployed in Poland. And that's linked to a profound impact that this product surely will have on our business. Naturally, we start with Poland, but once it's fully landed in Poland with all the functionalities or even a little bit sooner we want to test it as well on the other markets and the structure of that product is to be scalable literally on all the markets bringing us not only additional volume but as well strengthening the loyalization of the end-users base and giving us ability to provide even higher NPS to our end users. So it's too early now to disclose all the details for obvious reasons. We are closely watched by the others, but I think, you know, a fair statement is this is really the biggest innovation since the beginning of 2020. of our locker network and this will also translate uh into more even more tech oriented approach of the whole company uh than just being you know um a strongly funded uh logistics uh uh innovator so uh this will definitely help us to disrupt the the e-commerce whole process uh linked to delivery much more efficiently than than today

speaker
Owen

Our next question was from Jake Barfield from Asheville Capital Management. Last year, you spoke about competition increasing in Poland and there being no visible impact in your volumes or your prices. Can you provide an update on this, please?

speaker
Rafał Brzoska
CEO, InPost

I think the numbers speak for themselves. I mean, we are growing ahead of the market, significantly outpacing the market growth. Just a quick reminder, you need to look at the volume because GMV is not very often translating into volume. So we are outpacing the market volume-wise. We want to continue. So that means... We know some of the competitors are losing money on their development. and this is not surprising us because it's not about deploying lockers it's all about the complex ecosystem we've built we are continuously building we are strengthening by adding new products like mini parcel like in post pay like fulfillment like impulse fresh so this is an ecosystem that's giving us strength and not the dense network of the lockers itself so we We continuously take over the volume from door to door and from other players, and that's reflected in the numbers and the dynamics we have explicitly shown on the presentation.

speaker
Owen

Thanks. And the next question is from Maje Budek from Santander. Could you comment on the covenants that you currently have on your debt? Is the leverage ratio the only limit when it comes to acquisitions or is there a spending value limit as well?

speaker
Adam Aleksandrowicz
CFO, InPost

Yeah. Yes. The only financial covenant that we have is the net leverage ratio. You know, the indicative level of the covenant is north of 4x. So clearly, given where we are is, you know, this very significant headroom on this one. There are also obviously spending baskets, but they're related to the actual covenant level. So as long as the leverage is in the right space, effectively, you could say we are not constrained by the spending baskets. So yeah, that's pretty much how it operates.

speaker
Owen

Next question is from Othmane Brescia from Bank of America. You target to continue improving your market share in Poland. How do you see competition evolving in the midterm, notably with a potential merger between Orlen and Polish State Post? Also, I appreciate it's still early in the year. Can you provide us with an outlook on interest cost and potential FX gains or losses on debt?

speaker
Rafał Brzoska
CEO, InPost

Thank you. Let me answer the first part of the question, then I will hand over to Adam. So, you know, we try not to comment competitive moves and, you know, what people think, what they speculate or what they want to do, because we were, we are, and we want to be the trendsetter on the market. So we have our own agenda. And according to the agenda, we are realizing more and more on the market, including Poland. And of course, the new product development on our desk should strengthen that. That's also what I said about impulse pay, but also cross-border, for instance. So again, not speculating, not commenting, doing our own job. And I think the others are underestimating the loyalization of the consumer base. And we are fully focused on that because that's the most important element at the end. Who votes? The end users votes. And that's, you know, where we are totally focused on.

speaker
Adam Aleksandrowicz
CFO, InPost

Yeah. And in terms of financial costs for 2024 and most notably, you know, foreign exchange gains and losses, you know, the latter one obviously is a super tricky one. If you observed the impact of the FX valuation gains and losses on our um financial cost line has been very volatile across the 2023 so you have seen you know a significant negative impact in the first half of the year driven by the weakening of the police lottie versus euro then you have seen a very significant strengthening uh then it weakened again in q3 And then in Q4, you know, on the back of political changes, new government, much more, you know, positive in terms of EU dialogue and much more, I guess, predictable as a player on the political scene. The PLN has improved again and has strengthened quite significantly. um you know driving the valuation losses so effectively you know very difficult to say because it all depends on the geopolitics it all depends on global markets and how the the currencies play important to say you know these are non-cash valuation um gains or losses so effectively as long as we don't pay down the whole debt that's on the balance sheet you know they're they're not necessarily impacting our ability to run and grow the business as such um net net we would expect you know uh a more predictable and stable pln in 2024 as you know clearly politically at least in poland there is you know more predictability stability and much better pronounced i think economic policy and also dialogue with the eu obviously you know the the broader geopolitics um and especially tensions around um ukraine russia war remain you know a bit of a question mark so very difficult to form a very very strong view when it comes to actually uh financial expenses uh we would expect those to reduce versus 2023 so then again first of all um as we continue to generate meaningful cash And positive cash flow, we should actually see the utilization of our. Revolving facilities reduced a little bit compared to 2023 and then secondly. We have a hatched part of our PLN denominated debt. um you know catching the right market uh market position um last year and therefore we continue now to pay um on the interest rate which is way below the market rate and therefore i would expect to have a positive margin versus 23. our next question was from jacob a retail investor will you be paying a dividend in the future Well, I think we've been very consistent since the IPO and every time we were asked this question, the answer was as long as there is an opportunity for us to invest capital with a better return for the shareholders and create shareholder value, we would not be distributing dividend. And for the foreseeable future, I think as we look at the market opportunity and growth potential, it is not definitely a scenario for the next at least several quarters for the company.

speaker
Owen

The last question we have by the webcast is from Mikolaj, a private investor. When is cross-border going to be available in Poland and when will all companies markets and when will all companies markets are going to be connected? What are your long-term goals when it comes to the number of APMs in Europe? When will you introduce in-post pay in other countries? And are you looking forward to any new acquisitions?

speaker
Rafał Brzoska
CEO, InPost

Very quickly, in terms of cross-border, one of the priorities for 2024, so I may already admit that this will go live in 2024, linking all our markets across the board. We already have cross-border between France, Italy, France, Iberia and France, Benelux, so it's nothing completely new for us. That means the risk associated with launching that kind of service is very limited and we want to go into that at full scale this year. in terms of long-term goals the number of apms you know this is literally a blue ocean uh so this this is very linked to this is much i would say um driven by uh by the adoption uh of out of home per market but also adoption of automated out of home per market uh if you ask me you know about the a big, bold number for the markets we operate. I would say I would not be surprised with 100,000 APMs in our hands across the markets in long term. But of course, the phasing is strictly linked to the demand and the development of the market. And I think about input pay already answered in terms of M&As, we also commented, we stay opportunistic, we are looking at everything what's around, which, you know, it doesn't immediately mean we are in any process right now, but definitely looking around is on top of our agenda.

speaker
Owen

Thanks, Rafael. And before we close today's call, I'm going to pass back to Jess, who has one further question via the phone lines.

speaker
Mondial Relays

Thank you. So our next question, it comes from the line of Stefano Tofano from ABN AMRO. Please go ahead.

speaker
Stefano Tofano
Analyst, ABN AMRO

Yes, good morning, everybody. Apologies if this question has already been answered. I was a little bit late. But there are news articles today out saying that the expectations of a softening of the adjusted EBITDA margin in Poland, it reflects the launch of a mini partial offering with lower pricing. I don't know. This is the first time I'm hearing about this. I don't know if it's true and maybe if you can say something on that. And then the second question I have is just maybe with the specification on the answer that you gave to my colleague before. The revenue proposal declined due to the product mix in Mondial Relay. Do I understand it correctly that yes, B2C is growing within the mix, but particularly due to the bigger anchor merchants and at lower pricing points. So that's the reason of the revenue proposal decline due to the product mix. Thank you.

speaker
Rafał Brzoska
CEO, InPost

Happy to answer the first part of your question. Indeed, we have launched additional new product. We were preparing for it in the last three years, literally adding to our lockers. specifically pretty tiny lockers or tiny compartments for very small parcels and we launched that product two weeks ago, now we started a campaign around it. It's not the driver of the end-court margin around mid-40s, and I've explained the complexity around it. But definitely, this is a product that is giving us access to a completely new uh part of the market um were for which our current uh services were um too expensive for the size of the goods that people are shipped so uh consumers have to compromise and simply agree on a much worse quality for a lower price using traditional forms of deliveries, mostly the postal offices, so kind of economy parcel. We wanted to change that, offering literally a premium service on slightly lower prices than our smallest size, the A size, by introducing this new mini parcel product. And we see already after those two weeks, a very strong traction on that. And this is a completely new uh area new clients new consumers um and this is a product for uh individuals so so that's also very important so this is not the product we're offering currently for our other b2c merchants uh insurance of mondial um once again michael would you um

speaker
Michael Rouse
CEO International, InPost

Again, just to repeat, Stefano, the main primary driver of the revenue exchange is actually because we're not selling and we've removed to door offering. That is obviously a higher price point. There's two parts of that actual to door offering just to give you a flavor. Obviously, the traditional to door offer, which we actually did through a third party and not ourselves. And the second is actually elements where we had very, very large, bulky products that effectively don't fit in lockers anymore. They might have traditionally went to a photo or to tour and we've exited that, which obviously the revenue per parcel is a lot higher as well. So that is the main driver of the revenue drop. The B2C growth is good, but obviously the B2C growth that we're selling with larger merchants is not necessarily reducing the revenue per parcel. It's just not replacing the revenue per parcel that we're exiting. So hence the drop in that component.

speaker
Stefano Tofano
Analyst, ABN AMRO

Perfect. Thank you very much. Thank you.

speaker
Mondial Relays

We have no further questions, so I will now hand back to your hosts for some closing remarks.

speaker
Rafał Brzoska
CEO, InPost

Thank you. Thank you for all your questions, guys. A quick summary, as always, on my end, just highlighting the key developments as a summary. In 2023, we achieved the record-breaking results in terms of all the metrics, key metrics, profits, revenues, but most importantly, the volumes handled, almost 1 billion parcels. Most importantly, we also accomplish our strategy goals. And despite all these challenging conditions in the commerce market, we reported growth in each of our key countries. that outpaced the market. And now we've almost 66,000 out-of-home points, and that makes us the leading out-of-home network in Europe. Our group maintains its position as the uncontested leader of parcel locker networks in Poland, but also taking the leading position in the UK and in France. In Poland, very important remark is that we continuously really find the quality of our offerings, leading to really very positive user ratings. And the recent November's Cantor survey showing clearly that InPost once again received the highest NPS score in the industry at 80 points. Moreover, irrespective of all those initiatives around us in Poland, 94% of Polish customers shopping online, they choose InPostLocker as their preferred delivery form, not other lockers. InPostLocker, 94%. And last year's peak shopping season once again proved that we are the best and the most reliable and preferred partner for customers and merchants, delivering passes literally on a Christmas day, day before Christmas, as a guaranteed delivery method. In France, operating under Mondiali Le Brand, we not only grew faster than the market, but also recorded this 23% year-on-year increase in B2C volumes, which is super important for us in terms of the long-term strategy. And we are expanding the network. Mateusz Piorkowski- 2023 breakthrough again in the UK, we acquired stagnant and the logistics operator men's is which increase our control over the the whole logistics process and we achieve a decisive increase in volumes handled and, finally, the bda profitability. Becoming profitable in Italy is another significant milestone for us. And at the end, we've also not neglected our commitments to reduce the negative impact of our business operations on the environment. The carbon disclosure project awarded in post a rating of minus A, well above the global average C rating for the logistics businesses, confirming really the effectiveness of the actions in combating climate change. Deliveries through impulse blocker are the most ecological form of parcel delivery. Just thanks to this high density, we generate up to 97% lower carbon CO2 emission. And that was this effort and this ESG strategy have recently been, have been recognized by the inclusion of input into Euronext ESG index. Looking ahead to 2024, InPulse is set, in my opinion, to outperform market growth across all regions, expecting again profitability in every market and aiming to capture more B2C market share, especially in France, but also accelerating our UK expansion. In summarizing our achievements so far, I would really also like to emphasize that I look very optimistically toward the future in this realization of our strategic plans. And last but not least, at the end, as this is the last time in such room for Adam, let me say big thank you to you for your exceptional leadership, invaluable contributions as our group CFO. Your strategic vision has been, Adam, very pivotal in our business development and your guidance as a trusted colleague, but also my close friends will be greatly missed in the boardroom. So while we are sad to see you step down from this role, I'm super thrilled that your expertise will continue to benefit our company in your new capacity. Thank you all for your participation, our call, and have a great day, guys. Thank you.

speaker
Adam Aleksandrowicz
CFO, InPost

Thank you, Rafa, for the warm words. Thanks a lot. Thank you, everyone, also for a good cooperation. It's been a pleasure.

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