Iveco Group Nv

Good morning, everyone. I would like to welcome you to this webcast and conference call for IVECO Group full quarter and full year financial results for the period ending 31st December 2024. This call is being broadcast live on our website and is copyrighted by IVECO Group. I'm sure you appreciate that any other use, recording or transmission of any portion of this broadcast without the concept of IVECO Group is not allowed. Hosting today's call are IVECO Group CEO, Olof Persson, and our CFO, Anna Tanganelli. In their presentation, Olof and Anna will be using the material published on the IVECO Group website early this morning. Additionally, please note that any forward-looking statements we make during today's call are subject to the risks and uncertainties mentioned in the safe harbor statement, including in the presentation material. Additional information relating to factors that could cause actual results to differ materially is contained in the company's most recent annual report as well as other recent reports and filings with the authorities in the Netherlands and Italy. The company presentation may include certain non-IFRS financial measures. Additional information, including reconciliation to the most directly comparable IFRS financial measures, is included in the presentation material. I would like to reiterate that 2024 financial data shown in the press release and in this presentation exclude Magirus and this refers to continuing operation only, unless otherwise stated. In accordance with applicable accounting standards, the figures in the income statement and the statement of cash flow for 2023 comparative periods have been recast consistently. I will now turn the call over to our CEO, Olaf.

Thanks, Federico, and welcome to all of you joining our call today. I'm pleased to report that the Veco Group ended the year with a solid performance running off a 12-month period that saw several important new products introduced. Financial performance in 2024 benefited from positive price realisation and diligent cost management, which largely offset the impact of a 4% lower industrial activity net revenues compared to 2023. Despite lower revenues, The adjusted EBIT margin of industrial activity stood at 5.7%, 30 basis points higher than the full year of 2023. Our free cash flow generation ended the year at €402 million, the higher end of our guidance. We are reconfirming our full-year 2025 preliminary forecast for heavy-duty trucks in Europe at between 280,000 and 290,000 registrations, signaling a stabilization of the market. For medium-duty trucks, we expect volumes to be slightly down versus 2024, and for light-duty trucks, European industry forecast is mainly flat versus 2024. These forecasts reflect our expectations for a two-speed year, still low in the first half, with a recovery in the second. During Q4 2024, we continue to introduce our model year 2024 product lineup for truck. something we achieved while maintaining a strong pricing discipline. Feedback from customers is positive and confirmed by our heavy-duty truck order intake, which was substantially up, both sequentially and year-over-year. We kept production capacity below the market demand, supporting the dealers with a phase-out of model year 2022, and the transition to model year 2024 is largely completed in medium and heavy-duty trucks, while focus is on light duty trucks that will be largely completed by the first quarter of 2025 as expected. Bus continue to execute on a strong order backlog and ramped up deliveries of electric city buses, which reaches 14.2% of the European market by year end, ranking second in the segment. Powertrain continue managing its cost base, enabling it to the end of the year with an adjusted EBIT margin up year-over-year despite a 21% decline in engine deliveries compared to 2023. Defense saw a double-digit margin as the business unit continued to deliver on its multi-year and full-order backlog. In 2025 and 2026, we will increase the pace of our efficiency program and reprioritize certain investments. in order to reduce our operational spending and save 300 million capex and opex compared to full-year 2024 actions, but without affecting our product plan. In light of our full-year 2024 financial result, which Anna is going to comment in detail later in the presentation, the board of directors of Iveco Group MV intends to recommend to the company's shareholders an annual cash dividend of 0.33 euro per common share totaling approximately 90 million euros. The proposed dividend remains subject to former board approval and approval by the annual general meeting, which will take place on 16th of April 2025. Last but not least, as you may have read in our press release this morning, the board is considering separating the defense business during 2025 through a spin-off. In summary, the Eco Group is proceeding with confidence into 2025 all while maintaining an unwavering focus on quality, operational efficiency, and diligent price management. If you follow me into the next slide, number five, I'm delighted to highlight significant achievements we made with our model year 2024 configuration. During Q4 in 2024, we had almost 100% of our model year 2024 configurations diesel, natural gas, electric, 4x2, 4x4, etc. in production. This comprehensive and powerful range will bolster our leadership position in light-duty truck and further strengthen our brand repositioning in heavy-duty truck, especially given that this product is now at the level of best-in-class. Also, in early November, EVECO completed the transfer of its Nordic distribution and retail operations in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden to Hedin Mobility Group, one of Europe's largest mobility providers. This transfer was initially agreed in December 2023 with the signing of the Share Purchase Agreement. This strategic move aligns with our goal of enhancing our distribution network and leveraging the expertise of one of Europe's largest mobility providers. If we now move on to truck industry performance by region and in vehicles market share in Europe, during the full year of 2024, the industry in Europe was, as predicted, resilient for light-duty trucks and down in medium and heavy duty. Latin America saw industry volumes slightly up in light-duty trucks, but medium and heavy trucks saw double-digit increases, confirming the recovery of the region. In terms of our European market shares, excluding UK and Ireland, on a full year basis in the light commercial vehicle segment between 3.5 and 749 ton, we were broadly stable at 13.3%. Within this category, we consolidated our leadership position in both cab chassis and the heavier upper end of the segment at 13.6% and 64.6% respectively. Our medium and heavy duty truck market share in the full year remained solid at 8.9% with heavy duty trucks alone at 7.8% flat versus last year. On slide seven, throughout the year we focused on balancing the needs of pricing discipline with a managed introduction of our new model ranges. For our light duty track segment in Europe, we have carefully managed order intake and consequently our book-to-bill ratio to ensure a smooth transition from model year 2022 to model year 2024 within our dealer network. In South America, the order intake surged by almost 300% compared to Q4 2023 with a book-to-bill ratio of 146, making a 132% year-on-year increase. Turning to our medium and heavy-duty tracks, in Europe, we have seen a significant increase in order intake, up by 15% compared to Q4 2023, with a book-to-bill ratio rising 76% year-on-year to 0.78. Our European heavy-duty order index has also shown strong growth, up by 18% compared to Q4 2023, and up 49% sequentially with a book-to-bill ratio of 0.86, and that is an 83% year-on-year increase. In South America, the medium and heavy-duty order intake rose substantially, up by 81% compared to Q4 2023, with a book-to-bill ratio of 1.16, marking a 20% year-on-year increase. In these first weeks of 2025, we're enjoying a positive order trend, supporting our expectations that the model year 24 truck and van ranges will continue to gain momentum, while at the same time, we maintain a strong pricing discipline. Moving to slide eight, we show the truck channel inventory and production levels. As you can see, our production levels has been deliberately maintained below the retail demand during the fourth quarter of 2024. In light commercial vehicle, our channel inventory was up 3% versus last year, mainly due to increased inventories held by our dealers. While in medium and heavy, it fell by 14% compared to last year, and inventory is now well positioned to meet the forecasted uplift in demand in the second half of 2025. Our ongoing efforts to phase out the model year 22 vehicles and phase in model 24 products In light-duty trucks across our dealer network are progressing well. We are on track to complete most of this transition by the first quarter of 2025. In medium and heavy-duty trucks, this transition was already almost completed at the year end. The next slide shows some highlights within our robust segments during the fourth quarter. As you can see, our commitment to embracing technology and neutrality with a versatile solution and an accelerated zero emission offering is proceeding at pace. At our Annonay plant in France, the electrification ramp-up is progressing well. During the first quarter of 2025, both plants, Annonay and Rotem, also in France, will be running at full capacity in Citibus Furthermore, to meet the increasing demand in the EU, we have introduced battery assembly in Anone. In Q4 2024, we celebrated the first-hand success for our Citabus hydrogen. This groundbreaking product will be used in three cities in France and mark a significant step forward in our hydrogen strategy. On December 3rd, we unveiled the European premiere of the crossway electric during exhibition in France, marking the first major electrical intercity bus in the EU. This event again highlighted our leadership in the electric bus market. As an early Christmas present, on December 18th, we secure a significant tender in Germany for up to 580 buses, including 200 crossway low-entry electric and 180 crossway buses. As we continue to build on this momentum, we remain focused on leveraging our strengths and solidifying our leadership position in the industry. If we then move to next slide, number 11, with bus industry volumes and EV eco-market share. During 2024, we saw further strengthening in our core market segment. In the intercity segment, our leadership in Europe was reinforced, reaching a share of more than half the market at 50.5% market share for the full year, which is an increase of 2.2 percentage points compared to 2023. This position was helped by the introduction of new electric variants in the European city bus segment. We also enjoyed robust growth, reaching number two position with a 19.6 market share for the full year. an increase of 6.9 percentage points compared to 2023. This was supported by acceleration of deliveries in the second half of 2024. Additionally, we saw sound growth in the sub-segment of electricity buses reaching the number two position in the EU for the full year 2024 with a 14.2% market share. And that is an increase of 6.5 percentage points compared to 2023. Our business expansion outside Europe also showed positive results, with our market share in South America doubling from 4% in 2023 to 8% in 2024. With an efficient product offering, a widespread network of dealers and service partners, plus home-built batteries made a partnership with Micro West through FPT, the race in the electric sector is far from over, and we have the ambition to become its leader. Moving to the next slide, number 12, Our deliveries of buses were up 8%, and the order intake increased by 6% compared to full year 2023, and thereby the book-to-bill ratio stood at 1 at the end of full year 2024, which is roughly unchanged from full year 2023. This strong book-to-bill ratio provides significant future visibility, enabling robust supply chain management and the ability to address potential challenges proactively. We then move to page 14, and let's focus on the significant achievement in our ICE multi-energy platforms and the e-powertrain launched in Q4 2024. The highlight here is the Cursor 13-liter hydrogen engine, which was elected as the alternative energy engine of the year. On November 11th, the Cursor 13-liter, our pioneering multi-fuel single-base engine, optimized to run on multiple fuels, won the first alternative engine award. This recognition underscores our commitment to innovation and position us at the forefront of the future of internal combustion engines. Throughout the year, we continue to expand the number of third-party clients we have in both the on and off-road industries. This supports our long-term business growth and strengthen our market presence, as well as offering improved profitability as a result of cost containment actions that lower our break-even points. Next slide, 15. During the year, we continue to experience the knock-on effect of a slowdown in demand across the industry coupled with ongoing customer destocking. This was more pronounced in off-road compared to on-road. As a consequence, our engine volumes for the full year was down 21% versus full year 2023. To counter the impact of this market situation, Powertrain diligently executed on its efficiency program. It enacted additional cost containment measures and adapted production to meet the market demand, thereby lowering the break-even point and strengthening its resilience to industry cycle. This measure led Powertrain to close the year with an improvement in profitability of 30 basis points compared to 2023. Our focus continues to be not just managing short-term challenges, but building a stronger, more resilient future for our powertrain business unit. The next slide, number 17, shows the main achievements in our defense business unit. First of all, despite an increase in deliveries, our order book remained robust, fueled by a solid order intake during the period, confirming our strategic business plan trajectory. On the 11th of November 2024, IDV signed a preliminary agreement to supply functional parts for future contracts within the Leonardo and Rheinmetall joint venture. IDV's participation will be 12 to 15% of the JV total activities for the development and production of tracked combat ground vehicles for the Italian Army. A month later, IDV signed a contract with the Italian Army to supply 1,435 tactical logistic trucks to be delivered from this year until 2038. And on 31st of December 2024, the Vico Ottomilare Consortium signed a contract for the supply of 76 VBM Plus, again for the Italian Army. These achievements demonstrate our strategic focus on innovation and collaboration, ensuring we remain at the forefront of the defense industry. We then move to slide 18. As mentioned in our press release this morning, in view of the different trends in the commercial vehicles and defense markets and the increasingly different requirements for a long-term success of both businesses, the Board of Directors of EVECO Group is considering separating the defense business compromising the IDV and Astra brands and related activities during 2025 through a spinoff. The separation could simplify our group structure, increase management focus, and create strategic flexibility for both businesses. The board will provide an update on the outcome of these assessments in the coming months. Any steps post the assessment remain subject to the required internal and regulatory approvals. On page 20, we have our usual focus on electric product deliveries, showing figures for full year 2024. Let's start with our e-daily range. Here, deliveries continue to ramp up visibly during the period, reaching more than 1.7 thousand units with an order backlog that continues to grow. That is along with our market share. We began introducing the model year 24 e-daily range in the third quarter of 2024, and this will continue throughout 2025. We are starting to deliver the first units of the e-rigid heavy-duty truck in the European market and filling the order book. That said, the widespread adoption of electric heavy-duty hinges not only on our own effort, but also largely on the decision and action taken by policymakers and infrastructure investments. Moving to the electric buses, we have a solid order book that now covers production up to the second quarter of 2026. Deliveries are growing visibly and will continue to do so, boosting market share and positioning vehicle bus solidly as the number two in Europe. Our e-axle products deliveries have increased quarter over quarter, reaching more than 2.9 thousand units by year end, and we expect this trend to continue, supported by the progress I mentioned in the electric bus deliveries. The success our products are having in the markets is a testament to the effectiveness of our business units in developing their technology roadmaps as per our strategic business plan. We are on track to increase output for all our electrical products, and we are well positioned to meet the upcoming European emission standard regulation. And I will now hand over the call to Anna.

Thank you, Olof. And good morning, everyone. Let's now take a look at the highlights of our full year 2024 financial results on slide 22. Before we start, let me please remind you that, as was the case for the previous quarters, all the financials shown in the next slide refer to our continuing operations only, as our firefighting business unit has been classified as discontinued operations since Q1 2024. As a result, in accordance with the applicable accounting standards, also our 2023 figures have been recast consistently. In this regard, please note that the transfer of ownership of the firefighting business unit to listed private equity holding company Mutares was closed and completed as planned on the 3rd of January 2025. One-off effects from the transaction are excluded from all adjusting metrics. Full-year 2024 closed with consolidated net revenues of €15.3 billion and net revenues of industrial activities of €14.9 billion, both contracting by approximately 4% year-over-year, mainly due to lower volumes in truck and powertrain, partially offset by continuously positive year-over-year price realisation across all business units, also in the last quarter of the year. Financial services net revenues totaled €558 million in 2024, up 13% compared to prior year. Group consolidated adjusted EBIT closed at €982 million with a 6.4% margin, while adjusted EBIT of industrial activities reached €851 million with a 5.7% margin, both up 30 basis points versus last year. Net financial expenses amounted to 211 million euros compared to 443 million euros in 2023, an improvement of 232 million euros versus prior year as a result of the series of actions implemented during the course of 2024 to contain our foreign exchange exposure and to reduce our cost of hedging in Argentina, combined with a positive hyperinflation accounting impact during the period. For 2025, we are forecasting net financial expenses to remain broadly in line with full year 2024. Reported income tax expenses were 69 million euros for the year with an adjusted effective tax rate of 26%. As a result, consolidated adjusted net income totaled 569 million euros, up 181 million euros compared to prior year. With an adjusted diluted EPS, of 2.09 euros, up 74 euro cents compared to previous year. The adjusted net income attributable to IVECO Group closed broadly in line with the consolidated figure, up 198 million euros versus last year. Moving to our free cash flow performance, we closed full year 2024 with 402 million euros in free cash flow generation, thereby meeting the upper end of our previously communicated guidance. Finally, available liquidity, including undrawn committed credit lines, stood solid at 5.5 billion euros on the 31st of December, up almost 1.1 billion euros from September end. Let's now focus on net revenues of industrial activities on slide 23. As you can see from the chart on the top right-hand corner of this slide, all regions contracted compared to prior year, excluding South America, which was up 18% versus prior year, marking a positive exit speed into 2025. Looking at our net revenues evolution by business unit, bus and defense were solidly up versus prior year at plus 13% and plus 15% respectively, while truck and powertrain decreased versus full year 2023, with powertrain in particular posting a minus 17% net revenues contraction compared to previous year. More in detail, truck net revenues totaled just short of €10 billion, down 6.2% versus 2023, due to a positive price realisation and discipline throughout the year, both in light commercial vehicles and in medium and heavy-duty trucks, which partially offset the expected contraction in volumes in H2, as well as the impact of the year-over-year adverse foreign exchange rate evolution mainly in Argentina. Bus net revenues were up 13.3%, reaching 2.6 billion euros, driven by higher volumes, a better mix given the ramp-up in the second part of the year of the electric vehicle production and deliveries, and a positive pricing trend. Net revenues for defence continued to grow substantially throughout the year, ending the year at plus 15.1% versus 2023, and reaching 1.1 billion euros. through higher volumes and a positive mixed effect. Powertrain net revenues were down 16.7% year over year to 3.5 billion euros, mainly as a result of a decrease in off-road volumes, with sales to external customers accounting for 47%. Turning to slide 24, let's now briefly comment on the main drivers underlying the year over year performance in our adjusted EBIT margin of industrial activities for the full year. Net pricing continued to be positive for 2024, including in the last quarter of the year, and contributing €480 million to the adjusted EBIT, and more than offsetting the impact of the volume contraction in truck and powertrain. The operational and product cost improvement actions implemented in Europe during the course of 2024 contributed positively for more than €90 million. largely compensating one of costs associated with the launch of the new model year 2024 track range, as well as the negative impact on raw materials of the still severe inflationary trend in Argentina. As a result, full year 2024 adjusted EBIT margin of industrial activities closed at 5.7%, up 30 basis points versus last year. Let's now take a look at each industrial business unit adjusted EBIT margin performance for the full year on slide 25. TRAC closed with a solid 5.6% adjusted EBIT margin due to, as mentioned, a consistently positive price realization maintained throughout the year, combined with substantial product cost improvement, especially in Europe, but more than offset lower volumes and an adverse foreign exchange rate impact compared to prior year and mainly linked to Argentina. As for defense, adjusted EBIT margin posted a 230 basis point uplift versus prior year, reaching 10 percent through higher volumes and a positive aftermarket contribution. Bus adjusted EBIT margin closed at 5.5 percent, up 70 basis points year-over-year as a result of higher volumes, a positive mix due to the ramp-up in the second part of the year of electric vehicle production and deliveries, and a positive pricing trend. Powertrain adjusted EBIT margin closed at 6.2% in 2024, up 30 basis points compared to prior year, despite the severe volume drop suffered across the period. This reconfirms the remarkable resilience and flexibility of this business unit, which was able to rapidly adapt production levels to a changing market environment and implement a series of internal cost containment actions to counter the minus 17% year-over-year top-line contraction while still improving its profitability. Let's now have a look at the performance of our financial services business unit during the year on slide 26. Full-year 2024 adjusted EBIT closed at €131 million with a managed portfolio including unconsolidated joint ventures of €8.3 billion at the end of the year, of which retail accounted for 40%, and wholesale 60%, flat compared to December 31, 2023. Once again, important to be highlighted here is that the stock of receivables past due by more than 30 days as a percentage of the overall on-book portfolio remained constant at 1.9%, including in the last quarter of 2024 and compared to the 2% of Q4 2023. Return on assets remained solid at 2%. Finally, during 2024, we renewed the two JVs with Santander and BNP Paribas for the management of our retail business, as well as the partnership with CNH for the management of their receivables in EMEA. Additionally, as planned, we scaled up gate market coverage, adding two European countries, France and Germany, in line with our business plan. Moving to our free cash flow and net industrial cash evolution on slide 27. Full year 2024 free cash flow of industrial activities reached the high end of our previously communicated guidance, totaling €402 million. Full year 2024 adjusted EBITDA was €1.9 billion, up €82 million versus prior year. Provisions and similar contributed positively for €279 million compared to 2023, mainly driven by substantial improvement in financial charges. The variance in changing working capital versus previous year was primarily impacted by 2024 sales volume contractions, and as a result, lower production levels compared to prior year. Investment in 2024 totaled 932 million euros, substantially in line with last year. Moving now to my last slide for today, page 28, our available liquidity as of the 31st December 2024 stood solid at 5.5 billion euros, with 3.5 billion euros in cash and cash equivalents, up 815 million euros compared to last year, and 1.9 billion euros of undrawn committed facilities. Looking at our debt maturity profile, we confirm that the majority of our debt will be maturing beyond 2026, and that our cash and cash equivalent levels continue to more than cover all the cash maturities foreseen in the coming years, and totaling 2.4 billion euros. Thank you. I will now turn the call back to Olof for his final remarks.

Thank you, Anna. Let's end this presentation by looking at the outlook for both the industry and our own financial guidance, as well as some key takeaway messages from what you have heard today. In terms of total industry outlook for the current year, we are reaffirming the preliminary industry outlook that we provided back in November last year for EuroTrac. This is light duty trucks slightly down to flat, mainly because of full year 2024 high registration versus our preliminary outlook. Medium duty trucks slightly down at about 30,000 units and heavy duty truck at between 280 and 290,000 units. South America truck is expected to grow by 10% in light duty truck and be up 5% in the medium and heavy duty truck. Rest of the world for both sub-segments are forecasted to be flat or slightly down. Finally, in buses, we are expecting a flat industry across regions. The next slide has our full year 2025 preliminary financial guidance. This full year 2025 preliminary financial guidance is based on the current industry outlook and solid order backlogs, coupled with a constant pricing discipline and focus on cost management. As a consequence, we are expecting at the consolidated level group adjusted EBIT at between 980 and 1 billion 30 million euros. And for the industrial activities, net revenues including currency effect to be flat year over year. Adjusted EBIT from industrial activities at between 850 and 900 million euros. and industrial free cash flow to be between 400 and 450 million euros. We will continue to manage our production capacity in truck in Europe and powertrain businesses during the first half of the year in line with our forecasted two-speed market for 2025 to sensibly manage cost and support the finalization or the phase-out of older models and phase-in of model year 24 at dealers, primarily in our light duty truck segments. Before ending the call, I'd like to highlight some final thoughts and takeaways. Looking to further improve our ability to react more promptly to our cyclical industry and to lower our profitability break-even point, Starting from 2025 and continuing in 2026, we will speed up the implementation of our efficiency program, as well as reprioritizing some of our investments. This will have the effect of reducing our total operating spending, CAPEX and OPEX, but without affecting our product by 300 million euros compared to 2024 actual result. The savings will be divided by year as follows. In the full year 2025, we will reprioritize 100 million euros in CAPEX and savings in OPEX for 50 million euros. In the full year of 2026, we are expecting savings in OPEX for 150 million euros. These efforts will improve the cost run rate and to ensure a lower break-even point. And now on slide 33, let me provide the usual key takeaway messages from today's earnings call. First, our full year 2025 preliminary financial guidance is based on current industry outlook and assumes track's first half year remains low, but with a recovery in the second half. The order book in both bus and defense are solid, providing good visibility for both business units. And in powertrain, we continue to focus on cost containment actions that maintain solid profitability. Second, full-year industrial activity free cash flow generation will continue as per our preliminary guidance, supported by a diversified and well-positioned business portfolio, as well as constant increased effort to optimize working capital management. Thirdly, to strengthen EVECO Group's product positioning, we will maintain our focus on excellence in quality and strengthening our brand position. In this regard, we recently established a new quality and operations function that would provide a more unified approach to sourcing, production, and logistics. The cornerstone of our quality-focused organization is the platform model, which we are fundamentally reshaping to serve as a single entry decision point for all products and services life cycles. And finally, we will accelerate our efficiency program, as I mentioned, and reprioritize some of our investments, which will lead to a total savings of €300 million compared to our actual full year 2024 result. In conclusion, as clearly stated at the bottom of the slide, focus is our commitment for 2025. EVECO Group's focus commitment centers on three key priorities that drive growth and efficiently. First, we are committed to putting customers at the heart of everything we do by meeting their needs through exceptional products and services. Second, we are supporting the successful launch of our modular 24-inch, along with advancements in e-buses and e-drive lines to position ourselves strongly in the market. We are reducing our cost base by prioritizing spending, streamlining processes, and postponing non-essential projects to enhance the overall operational efficiency. Before opening up for questions, I think it's appropriate to thank all the people who work at the Vehicle Group every day, our partners and suppliers for these results. Together they bring life to our commitment to always go beyond, while remaining focused on our priorities. All IVECO Group businesses are progressing well on their respective long-term pathways while continuing to lower the break-even points, despite their different short-term industry dynamics. That concludes our prepared remarks.

And we can now open it up for questions. To be mindful of the time, we kindly ask that you all offer on any detailed modeling and accounting question on which we can follow up directly with me, Federico, and the investor relations team after the call. Operator, please go ahead.

Thank you. As a reminder to ask a question, please press star 1 and 1 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star 1 and 1 again. Once again, please press star 1 and 1 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. Till we draw your question, please press star 1 and 1 again. Thank you. We are now going to proceed with our first question. And the questions come from the line of Daniela Costa from Goldman Sachs. Please ask your question.

Hi. Good morning. Thank you. I have two questions for you, the one and the follow-up. I'll start with defense and with the announcement of looking at the separation. Can you maybe sort of help us understand separation route versus potentially selling to a third party, sort of like why did you decide to go for a separation, and what's the cost that you're baking in the free cash flow guidance from that work?

Okay, I think from the board's initial discussion, a SPIN seems to be the simple way of achieving the benefits of separation with a SPIN. There is no change of ownership at the point of separation. There is less market risk, and many vehicle shareholders may wish to remain invested in both companies. So no decision has been made, but we wanted to indicate the most likely separation approach.

And as for the guidance, no, I mean, obviously the guidance does not reflect any of that since all of, as correctly all of said, no decision has been taken, so.

Okay. And then just the second point on the 300 million actions on the OPEX and in the CAPEX, just wanted to understand how are these like over and above benefits that you would have been expecting from those partnerships that you have been like with Hyundai on the component side, also the one in Turkey for lower cost production. Is this related to that or is this extra actions and maybe you could give a bit more color exactly on what it is?

Thank you, Daniela. This is completely unrelated. So it's all self-help internal actions and let's say improvements and efficiencies we have identified. So it's not related to any partnership or any intervention of any third party. So it's really all just our self-help organic efficiencies.

So over and above those things. actions that were expected to contribute, have they already contributed to the bridge, or are we still yet to see the benefits of those prior partnerships?

No, as we said, those benefits will come later in the business plan. So yes, you are absolutely right. This will be above and beyond of any benefits coming from any partnership, and these are for 2025. So the rest will be coming later in the plan, as we had communicated also during our capital markets day in March.

Okay, thank you. We will now take our next question from the line of Martino D'Ambrogi from Equita. Please ask your question.

Thank you. Good morning, everybody. Again, a question on the defense business. Could you provide us an idea what is the ideal net financial position when the business will be spun off? and what is the contribution in your 2025 guidance, particularly looking at your CMD last year, you already achieved in 24, the sales target you had in 26, return on sales is still 100, 200 bps lower, but in any case, just to have an idea if there is room for an update maybe later during the year, but this target seems to be probably upgraded. And the second question is on the heavy trucks performance. What was in terms of sales and EBIT in 24 and what is implied in your guidance for 25 with some references on the prices? Thank you.

Well, I can start with the first question. I mean, the question you were asking and that will be part of the board's consideration as we clearly stated out. So we will let you know as and when the decisions are made and the information is available.

And on heavy duty, in terms of profitability in 2024, excluding the impact of ESCO, we are in the low single-digit area. For 2025, we are forecasting an improvement in profitability but I would say still in low single-digit, with an improvement obviously year over year.

Thank you. And the prices, what is the contribution in terms of prices from the new model year?

I don't think we guide in that. The issue we have, and I would have said over and over again, is that we do have the pricing discipline very high up on our agenda. I'm following that personally, making sure that on the heavy-duty track as well as for the light-duty track that we now get the pricing that these products deserve. Getting there is a process. We need to launch the products. We need to get them out on the roads. We need to get the customer feedback, which we're getting, and it's very positive. And during that period of time, you need to place the marketing activities in a very tactical and good way, and that's exactly what we're doing. But over time here, during 2025, when we have launched all the different variances, when we have got the, you know, getting the order out on the street, then you're definitely going to see a stabilization of the pricing and the pricing discipline that we're going to have, making sure You know, with improved TCOs for our customer, with improved quality that we have, and with improved driver satisfaction that we have with our new cab, having the right prices on it.

Thank you.

We're now going to take our next question. The questions come from the line of Jose Alcimendi from JP Morgan. Please ask your question.

Good morning. Thank you. Hi, Olaf, Anna. I was wondering if you could talk a bit more about the defense business. Can you quantify, or give us an update, please, about the size of the backlog you have, the growth profile over the next two years? Do you think you can hit maybe 1.5 billion revenues in the next two to three years? And then second question related to defense, when you think about the joint venture, collaboration with Leonardo and Rheinmetall, does this open strategically opportunities to bid for contracts that you previously were not able to bid? How does it change your ability to, you know, effectively to grow the business from here? Thank you.

Okay, I mean, from order intake and, you know, the... growth going forward. I mean, we do have a business plan communicated in March last year, which is actually then outlining the projected and what we expect and what the targets we do have on the business. And I think the order backlog that we now have seen and the order impact that I reported today as well. I mean, we are well on track on that pathway for the defense side. On your second question, I mean, we have to, and I want to be clear on this, what the board is communicating today is that they are considering and they want to make an assessment and then coming back to, you know, to this within a couple of months. So I have no further comments on those kind of aspects, and I don't want to go into that in particular. So we just conclude that. The defense business is doing well. The defense business is taking a good order backlog. We are well on track of a business plan. I think that's what we can comment upon today.

Fair enough. Can I go back to vans, heavy vans and van segment and heavy duty? What are you hearing from your European clients? Are you seeing that order backlog or book-to-be ratio improving towards the second half of the year?

yeah i think that that's why we we put this uh guidance out that we have this two speed of year right so um when you do this kind of guidance you definitely listen into a lot of different uh information and and this is what we see and hear today right when it comes to our own sort of making in that. And that means, of course, just because the market goes in a certain way doesn't mean that you have to follow the market in the times of market share. And we do, in our guidance, do look at the market share gain, in particular in the heavy, given the fact that we get good responses from the heavy duty side and medium duty side, based on the fact that we, as I've highlighted in terms of the order intake end of last year, starting of this year, I think that we are on a good way now to really fully launch it and getting into a more steady state order intake kind of position. And then we shouldn't forget our inroads in Latin America either. We talk about Europe all the time, but we had a good development in 2024. We have a good run rate coming off. 2024 into 2025, both in heavy and light in South America. And when I was there talking to the team, there is a lot of positivism in the way we launch our products, the way we position the vehicle brand, actually taking market shares going forward in all the business segments we have. So that is a combination. You had a little bit of a heavy van question as well, or did I miss?

Yes, it's fine.

On the heavy side, on the dailies, the cab over and the heavy side, we see that we, with the Model Year 24, really cement our market leader position. This product is unbiased, I know, but I think it's an absolutely brilliant product we do have there. We are very much looking forward to keeping the market share. Of course, it is a different position when you are at the 39, 40, or even 60% market share to grow compared to the heavy duty where we are much lower numbers. But I feel very comfortable with this, and it's a matter now of Concluding, as we said, with full focus on the 2022-2024 model shift with our dealers to make sure that is done, mostly done in Q1, and then take it from there.

Thank you a lot.

Thank you.

We are now going to proceed with our next question. The next question comes from the line of Gianluca Bertuzzo from Inter Montesim. Please ask a question.

Hi everybody and thank you for taking my question. The first one is on the order flow for the medium and heavy trucks. I wanted to know if there was a lump dynamic in Q4 due to the successful transition to model year 24 and the full opening of order books or there was a steady development and maybe if we can expect the same level of orders also in Q1 and beyond. Second question is, can you share the revenues from LCV of the truck division? And last question is on defense. When thinking about a potential valuation you are seeking for this business, can you share a threshold below which the spin-off will not be done? Thank you.

I can start with the last question. question there you have, and again, I need to come back to this statement. This is a part of the assessment based on this consideration that the Board has communicated to that, so I cannot and will not comment, and there will be information if and when decisions are taken, right? When it comes to all the flow on the heavy and the steadiness of it, I would say It is interesting to see the pickup we have seen at the back end of last year. And this is not opening order books or anything like that. We have had order books open for quite some time. But it's actually, I would say, it's more of a start to recognize the product, starting to get the feel for the products, and then realizing what a good product it is. Having said that, as in all introductions, have been doing, as you always do, marketing activities to make sure that we get launch customers, that we get the product out in all the different markets, and so on and so forth. When it comes to forecasting into the order intake in Q1, I think the only thing we can say with certainty is that the first weeks of 2025 have started well. I mean, we can say that, and then we will have to work on it. And as I said before, I have a good feeling for where we're going to be able to position this product in the medium and heavy duty tracks going forward. It will not happen from Monday to Friday. It will not happen overnight. It is very hard work that we have to do, but gradually over 2025, as I have said over and over again, gradually over 2025, we will see all the benefits coming through here as well. I think I got, yeah, then you have the revenue.

The LCV revenue contribution is around 50% of the truck revenues.

Okay, thank you very much. Very clear.

Thank you.

We are now going to proceed with our next question. And the questions come from . Please ask a question.

Yes, yes, good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. Most of my questions have been already answered, but I'm just wondering if you can give us more color on the book to build. The order intake is gaining momentum, but the book to build is sequentially decreased, if I'm not wrong. So I'm just wondering what... We can expect by year end with the ongoing introduction of the new model year. And my second question is on the trickish flow guidance. Maybe it's too early to answer, but can you give us any color on the trickish flow generation for the track division by year end, also on the back of the self-help measures?

If I start to the book-to-bill discussion and the numbers, I think what you see now on the medium and heavy-duty truck is a natural transition where we're coming from now having almost concluded the model year shift between 22 and 24, and now we start to see the flow coming through more natural in between production. and the dealers. However, and I have repeated this as well, I will not and we will not overproduce. So as you can see, the production versus the demand until we really see the delivery times going up and we have seen the delivery times going up and we're now booking up to 12 weeks in the medium and heavy duty, which is a good sign. We will manage very carefully the production rate not to overstock. On the LCV side, as I said, we are very much focused on that now, has been, but we're also making sure that this now during Q1, you're going to see that sort of transition done, and then you open up again for the normal flow of order versus demand, again, with a conservative production and making sure that we keep the inventory right. Now then, so basically by end of Q1, you should see that going through. And then you basically see market share versus our market anticipation and market guidance. And then you would see sort of the pickup coming down from the going into the second half of the year. So that's sort of how we build up the guidance and so on and so forth.

So on the cash flow, what I can say, sorry, please, Monica. I thought you had a follow-up question. No, on the cash flow, as you very well know, we don't guide by business unit. All I can say is that obviously truck is our biggest business unit, so we'll definitely contribute significantly to our cash flow generation in 2025. I would say especially from a good performance of its working capital, truck will find itself, as Olav was saying, in the almost opposite position in 2024 because we will have NH2, which is going to see an increase in revenues and therefore in production. So I would say working capital will perform quite well for truck in the second part of the year. So this is all I can say. Then definitely 2025 will see a positive contribution from a cash flow perspective also of the other business unit. Okay.

That's exactly what I wished to hear. Thank you very much.

Okay, good. Happy to hear that. Thank you, Monica. Thank you. Thank you.

We are now going to proceed with our last question. And the last questions come from the line of Miguel Borrega from BNP Paribas Exams. Please ask your question.

Hi, good morning, everyone. Thank you for taking my questions. I've got three, if I may, and we'll go one at a time. So the first one, just on the truck margin, which was flat year-on-year in Q4, but down slightly in 24. Help us understand, you had more LCV in the mix, so supposedly that should have had a positive mix effect You also said the heavy-duty margin improved, if I'm not mistaken. So what was the headwind in 24 and Q4 apart from lower volumes? And now that you're guiding for flat revenues in 25, you have all the configurations of the new model year in production. You already said you expect some improvements in the heavy-duty margin in 25. How do you expect the overall truck margin to improve?

So I can answer the first question. Well, you mentioned it. I mean, volume has definitely had an impact also on the profitability, so that cannot be disregarded. Then please remember that despite the positive pricing trend in the year that we said and the product cost improvement, We cannot forget the FX impact simply because we were able to very well effectively manage our hydrogen strut in Argentina. I mean, FX is still adverse in Argentina especially, but not just in Argentina. So year over year has had still a negative impact. Obviously, it's a smaller extent than in 2023, absolutely, but it's still there. So these two elements have unfortunately offset the positive performance of the pricing and the improvement in our product cost.

I think on the revenue and the overall track margin, I think the main message here is that we're now sort of moving in and to me and to the company, it is absolutely crucial that we now start to increase our margins in the heavy-duty and medium-duty trade segment by, as I said, pricing discipline, cost reductions, utilization, all those strings on the guitar that you always have when you introduce a new product. It's fundamental in our strategy and our focus to continue relentlessly to keep on doing that because at the end of the day, our truck margin and our market share needs to be earned, and it has to be earned by good margin product. But again, as I said in the last answer, this is not done from one day to another. We're coming from a position, we're coming from a product, we're now moving into new territory where we move the brand position and everything. So that is, to me, super important to state over and over again. When it comes to the absolute details about the margins, I don't think we sort of get into that. But rest assured, everyone on the call, that we are laser focused on this part. Again, with the fact that we have this brilliant product now as an asset, now we have to make sure that this asset is really paying off in terms of investments we've done. I'm very confident that that's going to happen.

Thank you. That's very clear. And my last question on the efficiency program, assuming that the 300 million are all successfully achieved by 2026, can you confirm we could be looking at an industrial free cash flow higher than the capital market state target of 600 million?

Well, I think we have a plan. We have a business plan, a strategic business plan. We communicated in March. I think we will inform you or keep you posted on progresses in the coming months. I think for now, I mean, let's get this $300 million in the bag, and then we will be all very happy if we can beat any estimate. But for now, that business plan stands. So I think...

No, no, absolutely right. I just want to highlight that. First of all, your question, if there is no if, it will come, right? Because we have very detailed plans and we have the reprioritization class, so the $300 million will come. But the way I see it is that we don't have the crystal ball two years in a row. This gives us the momentum around making sure that we continue to lower our breakeven point, making sure that we are faster in adapting to any changes to the market. And of course, if the market and when the market changed, what happened then? Well, then you have a better leverage situation because you're going in with an upturn with a lower cost base because you are taking out the cost. So to me, it is really a way of communicating to the organization, making very sure that we keep on working on this and Again, it's not an if. It's definitely when those savings will come in.

Thank you very much.

Thank you. Thank you.

Thank you all.

Thank you all, and have a nice weekend.

Bye-bye. Bye.