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Jost Werke Se
8/11/2022
Thank you very much. A very good morning from our headquarters here at Neu-Isenburg and a warm welcome to our Q2 investor and analysts conference. We will present to you the highlights of Q2, the details of our Q2 performance, and we will give you an outlook for the remainder of the year. And after that, we're happy to take your questions. Let's come to the highlights. Just increased sales by 18% to a record of 322 million euros in Q2 with a very strong growth in transport with 14% and in agriculture with 29%. Our adjusted EBIT margin also remained strong at 10% despite rising costs and disruptions in supply chain with an adjusted EBIT growing by 7% to 32 million in the second quarter. Our high operational flexibility and the wide global footprint were the key success factors to manage the regional shifts in a volatile market environment. Visibility remains low due to the war in Ukraine, potential energy and supply chain constraints, as well as ongoing lockdowns in China. However, Yoast confirms the outlook for the financial year 2022, despite this challenging market environment. Let's take a brief look at the market development in Q2 and in the comparison to Q2 2021. The truck market in Europe was actually weaker, mainly due to supply chain disruptions due to the war in Ukraine. Wiring harnesses, semiconductors were the key components that were missing and that affected obviously our sales to the truck OEMs since they were producing less. The trailer markets were stronger by plus 6% and were less impacted by the supply chain issues. And the trailer manufacturers are typically more flexible than the truck manufacturers in their production. Tractor market was at minus 6%. Also there, we had some uncertainties because of the war in Ukraine, but also some issues with semiconductors. Our just performance in Europe with 16% is offsetting the decline in trucks with a strong trailer and tractor business and also includes some pricing effect since we have raised our prices beginning of the year. North America, very strong region, 7% growth in the production of Class A trucks and also 12% in the trailer production. So very strong underlying business, very strong demand in the transport segment. in the tractor agricultural tractor segment more or less even with compact tractors declining but higher sales in higher horsepower tractors which benefited us because that's these are the more valuable and also the more profitable products in our agricultural lineup The JAWS performance with 52% outperformed this market. There is certainly some pricing effect and also some FX effects that Christian will explain a little later. But overall, a very strong performance outperforming the market also with market share gains. Looking at Asia Pacific Africa, you see here in the official numbers a minus 56% that is impacted by China. Especially in the comparison between Q2 of last year 2021, there was a huge decline in China because in China the emission regulation changed 1st of July 2021 and we had a pre-buy and therefore a pre-production effect in Q1 and Q2. So that drop comes mainly from China. In trailers, we see a growing market, actually with 11% growing in the total region. The JAWS performance in this, we were also impacted by China, but we only went down 20%. And that is because our other regions in that or other countries in that regions more than or offset a big portion of that China impact. And also, if you look at the profitability that Christian will explain in detail, you see that even at this level, we have a very healthy business in that region. Having that said, let's come to the details and I hand over to Christian.
Yes Joachim, thank you very much and also a very warm welcome from my side. Good to be back here in the Joe studios after one session outside. But let's quickly go through the financials for Q2. As Joachim already pointed out, quite successful Q2 in our opinion. So starting with the region Europe, you see that our sales grew by about 16% reported organically, actually a growth of 17% for H1, even 17.6%. And you do see here some negative FX effects, headwinds, both in sales, but also on the profitability. I'll come to that in a second. Overall, sales grew, as Joachim pointed out, 16% in Q2, despite significant supply chain disruptions. Especially due to the Ukraine war and those were not only visible within Europe exactly because there are also significant impacts of the war on transportation. So overall the production of trailers and tractors was less affected as we said and the demand remained very strong. revenues were supported by previous sales price adjustments however the the increase in input factors input costs remained very very high also in q2 and that will require future price increases especially in the region europe in order to to fight those those price increases Overall, the FX headwinds in Q2 amounted to roughly minus 1.3 percentage points, and those were resulting mostly from the Swedish kronor. The Swedish kronor, it's worth to talk about that a little bit more specifically because we see several effects here. First of all, the Swedish kronor deteriorated against all major currencies that affect our business on the agricultural side. The Euro versus the Euro, it deteriorate by roughly 4% versus the US dollar by 13% and versus the RMB in China, about 7%. So overall, very negative impacts and unfortunately, all to the detriment of JOST. But the good thing is that the vast majority of those negative impacts, and you'll see that also in the result, is non-realized. So speaking about the result, we were able to grow our EBIT in Europe from 12.4%. Sorry, we were not able to grow our EBIT in this quarter, nor in the H1 numbers. You see a slight decline of 3% for H1. And therefore, this is basically accompanied by a lower margin of 8.2% in H1 or 6.8% in Q2. Main reason for that, obviously, what I already said, the increase in input factors, so especially material costs went up, but also transportation costs. However, and that is very important to understand, the foreign exchange rate effect that I was just pointing out of the Swedish krona, had an overall negative impact of 4.3 million. So if you were to add the 4.3 million to the 12.4 million in Q2, you would see that our margin would be right on the same level as it was in Q2 2021. So if we take that into consideration, I would say it was a quite decent quarter where we were able to pass on most of the price increases that we saw on the purchasing side also to our customers. But needless to say that foreign exchange changes are always part of the game and therefore our EBIT slightly deteriorated in Q2 and thus also in H1. With that, I would like to go over to the next region, North America. Here we see a different foreign exchange rate effect. You see that our organic growth in Q2 was 35% and our reported growth was 52%. And that is even stronger on the H1 results where we were able to organically grow by 44% and reportedly even by 60%. So overall, a very positive development there, significantly outperforming the market, as Joachim already said, but certainly also supported by very strong FX tailwinds, in this case, 17 percentage points in Q2. So that's quite significant. And we all know that the euro overall, as our reporting currency, deteriorated against most currencies, but not the Swedish krona. I would like to point out that our aftermarket sales in all regions remained very stable throughout Q2, but also throughout H1 compared to prior year. So we are still in a growth rate. So more growth on the OEM side and less growth on the aftermarket side. Also pointing to future potential if there should ever be a downturn. But aftermarket year to date in North America, about 25%. 28% in Europe. Adjusted EBIT also grew even stronger than our sales. H1, 74% growth, now up to a EBIT margin of 9.2%. And Q2, you see the 62%. And the margin went up by about 0.6 percentage points, now at 9.7%, making North America once again the second strongest region in the group. So we obviously, with more sales, we were benefiting from higher capacity utilization and better operating leverage. And that all combined with positive foreign exchange rate effects really made up this very, very positive result in North America. Last region, Asia Pacific, Africa, again, a totally mixed picture on the one side, China, on the other side, the rest of Asia Pacific. But the rest of Asia Pacific really needs some praise here because they were really picking up what was sort of left behind in China. And, you know, that looking back into the past of Joe's China, the Chinese market roughly accounted for somewhere between 50 to 55% of the overall sales, I would say roughly 50 on average. And that portion dropped dramatically. it basically dropped down to roughly 30% in H1 and this is just all attributable to the overall decline in the Chinese truck market. The Chinese truck market has been very, very weak ever since we came into Q3 2021 when we had the change of emissions regulation and ever since then The market was very weak and we have yet to see a strong recovery. There are certain positive signs. We were watching them carefully, but it's still I would say somewhat disappointing what's happening in China with the overall economy, what's especially happening with lockdowns. Lockdowns in China affect us in multiple ways. When the port of Shanghai gets closed, it will affect our ability to transport products, be it finished, semi-finished or raw material from China to Europe or North America. On the other hand, such port closures also affect our ability to deliver parts within China. And as you know, it's not only the port of Shanghai that was closed down. It was overall Shanghai that was closed down. And so were other major cities, especially some major cities where our customers sit. So, once again, China, rather weak development, and I would say, given the unusual circumstances, our teams in China did the best they could, and they achieved a positive result, which is still good, and also a growing result, but it cannot be compared to what happened in Q2 2021. But back to the rest of Asia, Pacific Africa, and I would like to specifically point to India, to Australia, to New Zealand, and to South Africa, and last but not least to our Southeast Asian business in Singapore. They all performed very well, picked up what was left behind in China. And you can see it there, especially in the margin development. The margin in H1 increased from 17.6% to 19.5% in H1 2022. And this is all due to the fact that we were able to compensate some of the missed sales in China through sales in the other regions. And how is that? Basically, the main factor is that we see a lot more off-highway, heavy-duty business in in those countries that i just mentioned while specifically china is a more on-road market for us and as you may know if you've been following us for a while uh heavy duty off-road business is much more profitable than on-road business and this is this is exactly visible here in the numbers for the asia pacific region so the better product mix really helped to improve the situation in this region I need to point out that overall we still see a small decline of 7.5 percentage points because China is just so big that there was no way to fully compensate the missed sales. Also bearing in mind that H1 2021 and especially Q2 2021 were unusually strong quarters in China due to the already before mentioned pre-buy effects due to the change in emissions regulation. So let's move over to the group. And Joachim has already pointed it out. Organically, we were able in H1 to grow by about 16%, reportedly by 19%. A good split between transport and agriculture. Agriculture up 37% and transport 14%. And in Q2, similar development, plus 29% on agriculture and plus 14% on transport. Adjusted EBIT margin remained in Q2 stable at 10%. I believe that was a challenge, but it was a good result. If you bear in mind how many headwinds we were seeing operationally, we had the lockdowns in China, so that caused supply chain disruptions. We had the war in Europe that caused some of our customers especially in europe not to be able to produce because they were missing parts and then overall everything was inflated we we saw inflation on material energy logistics and alloys and all of that was coming our way and on the other hand we needed to react and go to our customers But I must say that there will be a time lag when we will see the positive effects from price increases with customers compared to the negative effects that we are seeing from our suppliers. So keeping in mind that we achieved the 10%, plus if you add it, the 4.3 million foreign exchange rate effect that were there, we would have even ended up at a better margin in Q2 2022 compared to Q2 2021. But again, I'm not debating that the foreign exchange rate effects are there. And so, therefore, we have to say that, yes, we grew our adjusted EBIT. by 7.2% in Q2 to 32.1% or 11.4% in H1 to 66.5%. but there were some negative effects coming our way. Also, I would like to point out that this is now the second consecutive quarter where we recorded not only record sales of above 300 million per quarter, but we also recorded another second quarter in a row with 30 million in profit. Also, this is something that we have never achieved in the past. So that brings me now to some more financial numbers driven by balance sheet and other developments. So first of all, our typical walk through the adjustments plus the taxes and finance results. So you see here a net income in H1 of 38 million euros. That is doubled what we had in Q1 this year. Texas grew quite strongly to 10 million and then the financial result remained stable at roughly 1.5 million and therefore now counting to 3 million overall year to date. Here you can actually see that we also had an increase in our net debt. So EBIT for H1, the non-adjusted EBIT amounts to 51 million. Then you see the typical development of the depreciation and amortization of our purchase price allocations that is now doubled compared to Q1 with 14 million. Other exceptional, very small ones only with 2 million. So also this is a number that's absolutely in line with what we were expecting. So nothing unusual there. And that overall brings us to an adjusted EBIT of roughly 66 million, a record result for a first half year at JOS ever. Now we do the walk backwards down to the adjusted net income, minus 3 million finance result and a performer tax rate of 30% brings us to an adjusted net income of 44 million. And that is not only doubled from Q1, but it's also significantly higher, about 10% higher than it was in H1 2021. One word on reported earnings per share and adjusted earnings per share. So reported earnings per share grew significantly from 1.61 euro to 2.53 euros. And the main reason why the growth was so strong and By the way, the adjusted EPS didn't grow as much, but the main reason was that in the reported result last year, we had negative impacts because of the disposal of our subsidiary JOST UK. And now we did adjust them and therefore you see that the adjusted EPS rose from 2.69 euros per share to 2.99 euros per share, but still a 30 cent growth is remarkable if you ask me. Now I would like to go to the next slide where we speak about ROSI equity ratio and net debt. ROSI basically stable at 16, 16 and a half percent. So it was 16.6 end of December, now 16.4. Basically driven by a minor increase in net debt, but overall quite stable, 16% ROSI is in line with our expectations. Equity ratio, happy to report that we're now above 33%. As I've already mentioned several times, the 30% is basically the threshold where we would like to stay at. And now with 33.3%, we're significantly above that number. Net debt, I mentioned that small increase from the leverage increase from 1.45 times to 1.53 times, but still very much within our target range of somewhere between one and two times. And you see the total number here, slight growth from 194 to 260 million. Overall, okay, if you ask me. Cashflow. if you look at cash flow you see here that the free cash flow is once again positive the cash conversion rate is also positive with plus 0.4 better than last year and also better than in q1 we we did work on our working capital uh we we will continue to work on our working capital But overall, it's a cash conversion rate that we're okay with. We're below the one times target or one target. But this is just the middle of the year and we continue to work on those numbers. CapEx, also positive in a sense that we are not behind our CapEx plan. So with 6.4 million, significantly more than we did in the last year. At the same time and therefore we are 2%. However, we need to be realistic with the strong inflation in sales. It is uncertain whether we will end up at 2.5% or it will remain around the 2% mark. that we're currently seeing. But I can assure you we are continuing to invest and make the right moves, but we will not just make investments because we want to achieve a certain capex ratio. We will invest in euros the exact same amount that we had planned, and that's basically what you're seeing here. Networking capital, we have a slight increase from 20.3% in Q2 last year to 21.2% this year. And the main drivers are certainly our inventory numbers. You see here an increase of roughly 60 million compared to one year ago. And you know the reasons. Those are the same that we've already communicated in Q1 and also in Q4 last year. We needed to improve or increase our inventory numbers because of all of those supply chain disruptions. Last year, end of last year, we were basically, sorry, not end of last year, end of Q2 last year, we were still not affected by any kind of war. We did have certain corona effects, but they were kind of going away and now we see a significant increase but it is necessary in order to deliver our parts to our customers and as you know the history has shown that it was always beneficial when we were able to to be able to deliver and therefore there needs to be a compromise between inventory levels and the ability to to deliver to the customers And this is something that you're seeing here. We do not see a very significant increase in inventory days. It's roughly nine days going up, so it's not as severe. And we will continue to manage those numbers. So this was it from my side on the different financial KPIs, the different regions. And I hope those gave you a good insight of what was happening in this good quarter 2022. And I would like to hand it over back to Joachim.
Thank you very much, Christian, for the detailed analysis of the results. And I would like to present to you how we expect the remainder of the year to continue. And these are the official numbers that you see from the external consultants, LMC, Clear Consulting, FTR. And they are for Europe unchanged to what we presented last time. So they see a contraction in Europe on truck and also on trailers and a slight growth on agricultural tractors. Our outlook is that, you know, on top of that, you can you can account a certain price effect. So we expect a slight growth for the for the full year in in Europe, North America. Here, if you compare it to the previous expectations, they have reduced the expectations somewhat. So it used to be 10 to 15% growth in North America for trucks, for example. So there is a slight reduction in the outlook. They see it a bit more conservative and have reduced the expectations for North America and also for China. But you've seen the performance already in the first quarter, in the first half year and also in the second quarter where we've been up 50% in North America and 30 something percent excluding the FX effect. And we also expect to outperform this over the course of the year in North America. APA, they have further reduced, as I already mentioned, their expectations, and that is mainly driven by China. But mind you, this is the full year 2022 that we see here. And in China, we have to consider that we had, if you do a full year comparison, very strong first half year of 2021. And now if you compare Q3 and Q4, we will be able to compare to a lower base because we already had much reduced volumes in China in Q3 and Q4. So I don't expect for the upcoming quarters to see the same decline versus last year than we have seen in the first two quarters, just because we have a different base. to compare it to so our numbers will not reflect the negative numbers that you see here in april for the for the total year but if you look at the remainder of the year it should it should probably not be negative at all so that's the the outlook from the market and based on that we can confirm our guidance that remains at the mid single digit growth year over year in sales and as a comparison in 2021 we had 1.049 billion sales also our adjusted ebit will grow mid single digit so that we will we are counting on a stable ebit margin CapEx, Christian already explained, we are focusing to do the necessary CapEx according to our CapEx plan, but we're focusing on the absolute values. So if sales due to pricing and inflation effects grow beyond that, then that may lead to a smaller ratio because we're focusing on the absolute investments. With that, I would like to come to the summary and we can summarize that we had another successful quarter with sales exceeding 300 million in one quarter and adjusted EBIT exceeding the 30 million mark for the second consecutive quarter in JOST history. I think that's, especially in the current market environment and with the current uncertainty, a very positive result. Both business lines, transport and agriculture, continue to drive the growth momentum and we are benefiting in both from a good order intake. North America was our strongest growth region, once again, supporting by a growing demand for our products in transport, but also in agriculture. And given the current macroeconomic uncertainty and the rising inflation worldwide, it's hard to predict and the visibility remains low, but our underlying fundamentals are still strong. So transport and agriculture are things that are needed even in this uncertain world. And therefore, we confirm our guidance for the financial year 2022. And we're confident that we will achieve this based on the results that you've seen so far and also on our ability to limit the negative impacts that we see with rising costs and supply shortages. And we are doing that with our operational flexibility, but also with our product portfolio, which is very balanced between truck, trailer and agricultural tractors. With that, I would like to thank you for your attention and for your interest. And we're looking forward to your questions.
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